Solar Photovoltaic:

The Green Technology Best Option

Ir. Ahmad Hadri Haris
hadri@mbipv.net.my
Chief Technical Advisor, MBIPV Project
Ministry of Energy, Green Technology & Water Malaysia
National Electronics Seminar, Penang
29
th
30
th
November 2010
Malaysia Green Technology Policy
Launched by YAB Prime Minister on 24
th
July 2009
Policy Statement
Green Technology shall be a driver to accelerate the national
economy and promote sustainable development.
2
DEFINITION
Green Technology is the development and
application of products, equipment, and systems
used to conserve the natural environment and
resources, which minimises and reduces the
negative impact of human activities.
It minimises the degradation of the
environment;
It has a zero or low green house gas (GHG)
emission;
It is safe for use and promotes healthy and
improved environment for all forms of life;
It conserves the use of energy and natural
resources; and
It promotes the use of renewable resources.
Malaysia Green Technology Policy
3
Vanguard 1 Satellite (1958): 1
st
solar PV
application
Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
4
5
How does PV work?
5
Source: MBIPV, 2009
1
st
Type 2
nd
Type
3
rd
Type
Types of PV Technology
6
Daily PV Applications
7
PV modules
Electrical
loads (AC)
Electrical
loads (AC/DC)
Battery
Inverter
Grid supply/
connection
Controller
New: Mostly applied in urban areas
Does not require battery (utility grid as battery)
Inverter (critical) converts DC to AC
Excess electricity is sold to utility
Applied in remote areas / areas with no utility
supply (islands)
Requires battery (critical)
Controller regulates battery, can be connected
to DC load
Grid-connected PV Stand-alone PV
PV in Power Generation Sector
8
World Solar PV Installed Capacity
(1995-2009)
9
Source: REN21
World Solar PV Market Share (2009)
10
Source: REN21
Future Prospect: PV Supply (to 2014)
11
Source: Navigant Consulting Inc
PV Experience Curve
12
Source: Navigant Consulting Inc, AMAT
Market Perspective & Price Reduction
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Malaysia kWp/Year Germany MWp/Year Japan MWp/Year USA MWp/Year
Malaysia RM/Wp/Year Germany RM/Wp/Year Japan RM/Wp/Year USA RM/Wp/Year
RM/Wp
Source: IEA-PVPS, MBIPV
MWp
13
14
Source: DuPont, Yingli
Recent PV Module Price Trend (2009)
Prospect for PV Grid Parity
15
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
World Top 10 PV Manufacturers
(2006-2009)
16
Rank 2006 MWp 2007 MWp 2008 MWp 2009 MWp
1
Sharp
Solar
435
Sharp
Solar
363 Q-Cells 547 First Solar 1,057
2 Q-Cells 240 Q-Cells 344 Suntech 498 Suntech 672
3 Kyocera 180 Suntech 309
Sharp
Solar
458
Sharp
Solar
570
4 Suntech 152 Kyocera 207 First Solar 435 Yingli 525
5 Sanyo 121 First Solar 186 Kyocera 290 Q-Cells 518
6
Mitsubishi
Electric
111 Motech 167 Motech 254 JA Solar 509
7
Schott
Solar
96 Sanyo 155 Sanyo 220 Trina 399
8 Motech 92
SolarWorl
d
136 SunPower 215 SunPower 347
9 BP Solar 78
Mitsubishi
Electric
121 JA Solar 212 Kyocera 340
10 SunPower 63 SunPower 102 BP Solar 148 Motech 338
TOTAL
1,568
(79%)
2,090
(68%)
3,277
(60%)
5,275
(67%)
Total
Shipments
1,985 3,073 5,492 7,913
Source: Navigant Consulting Inc
First Solar (Up to 1,337 MW: 2008-2011)
Q-Cells (600 MW: 2009)
Tokuyama (3,000 tonnes: 2012)
Sunpower (1,000 MW: 2011)
STX Energy
Flextronics (Q-Cells) (200 MW)
MEMC (wafer)
Solartif
17
Malaysia: Solar PV Manufacturing
Malaysias Ambition: ETP (NKEA)
18
17%
share
ETP launched by YAB PM on 25
th
Oct 2010
First Solar (Up to 1,337 MW: 2008-2011)
Q-Cells (600 MW: 2009)
Tokuyama (3,000 tonnes: 2012)
Sunpower (1,000 MW: 2011)
STX Energy
Flextronics (Q-Cells) (200 MW)
MEMC (wafer)
ETP (NKEA) Focus
19
Solartif
EPP5: Increase Silicon
Production (170 ktons by 2020)
EPP6: Grow Wafer & Cell
Production (23 GW by 2020)
EPP7: Increase Module
Production
Silicon
Ingot and
wafers
Solar cells
Solar modules
System components
Installation and
service
Equipment
providers
Product supply
PV Industry Value Chain (c-Si)
20
Mining
Processing
Solar modules
System components
Installation and
service
Equipment
providers
Product supply
PV Industry Value Chain (TF)
21
Equipment
providers
Product supply
Equipment
providers
Product supply
In 2008
(in RM billion)
Approx.
0.7 2.2 3.6 4.3 72 7.2
Source: Daniel Ruoss, 2009
30 2 18 20 22 38 60 80 Revenues
Revenues
PV Value Chain &
Business Revenues (2008)
22
Crystalline
Thin film
Equipment Industry & Supply Industry
PV Value Chain in Malaysia
23
Solar Companies &
Market Capitalisation (2008)
24
Source: Pegasus, Global PV Market Research Report 2007
Increasing scale
of production
Increasing
investment
cost per MW
Increasing
market players
Installation / System integration
Silicon
Module
Wafers
Solar cells
Ingots
Few market
players
Low CAPEX
High-tech production
(incl. R&D) and size of
facility increases
High CAPEX
Many market
players
Understanding The PV Value Chain
25
The following graph indicates investment cost trends for c-Si PV value chain.
Not to be use for final economic analysis or business plan. Figures vary whether manual or automated
concept.
Solar Manufacturing: Investment
Requirements
26
Profit range
(%)
Polysilicon 30-50
Wafers 20-40
Solar cells 20-30
Modules 5-15
BOS components 10-20
Installation / M&E 5-20
Trend of Profit Distribution
27
Source: Daniel Ruoss
2011: PV Manufacturing Countries
Projected PV production in 2011: 18 GW (high)
28
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Annual kW Cumulative kW
MBIPV Project
29
Post- MBIPV: Feed-in Tariff
+ Solar Power Plants (ETP)
200
MW
GW
SPPs
Need for Local Market Support
Thank You
MBIPV Project
TOI-U07 & U08, 1st Floor,
No. 5, Jalan P16, Precinct 16,
62150 Putrajaya, Malaysia
E: infopv@mbipv.net.my
www.mbipv.net.my