Section A.

1
.
The random variable X has probability density function defined by
(a) State values for the median and the lower quartile of X.
(2)
(b) Show that, for 1 x , the cumulative distribution function, !(x), of X is "iven by
(#ou may assume that
Answers
(a) $edian % 1
&1
'ower quartile %
&1
2
(b) !(1) %
!or 1 x
i"nore limits
$1
(orrect inte"ration ) correct limits seen or used
*1
addin" or !(1)
m1
(*+ (*,)
*1
Alternative
($1)
!(1) % c % 1
(m1)(*1)
!(x) % 1 ) (x - )
.
(*1)

Alternative
(c) /(2 X .) %
!(.) - !(2)
$1
*1
2
(d) (i)
use of !(q) %
$1
(either)
$1
(01) (q - )
.
% -1..1
AG
*1
.
(ii)
(*+
&1
1
212
* machine fills small cans with soda water. The volume of soda water delivered by the machine
may be modelled by a normal random variable with a mean of 11. ml and a standard deviation
of 1.3 ml.
4ach can is able to hold a ma5imum of 111 ml of soda water.
/rinted on each can is 6(ontents 117 ml8.
(a) 9etermine the probability that the volume of soda water delivered by the machine:
(i) does not cause a can to overflow;
(ii) is less than that printed on a can.
(3)
(b) !ollowin" ad<ustments to the machine, the volume of soda water in a can may be
modelled by a normal random variable with a mean of 112 ml and a standard deviation of 7.=
ml.
,iven that pac>s of 12 cans may be assumed to be random samples of cans filled by the
machine, determine the probability that, in a pac>, the mean volume of soda water per can is
more than 112.1 ml.
()
(Total 17 mar>s)
me, X ? @(11., 1.3
2
)
(a) (i) /(not overflow) % /(X A 111)
$ay be implied
&1
Standardisin" (11.1, 111 or 111.1 or
1B.1, 117 or 117.1) with 11. and
( , 1.3 or 1.3
2
) andCor (11. - 5)
May be gained in (a)(i) or (a)(ii)
$1
% /(Z A 1.25)
(*+; i"nore inequality and si"n
$ay be implied by a correct answer
*1
% 0.894 to 0.895
*D!D (7.=B.1)
*1
(ii) /(less than printed) % /(X A 117)
+nly if &1 not awarded in (a)(i)
(&1)
% /(Z A -1.=E1)
1 - /(Z A 1.=E1)
*rea chan"e
$ay be implied by a correct answer
or answer A 7.1
$1
% 0.03 to 0.031
*D!D (7.7.77)
*1
3
(b) Folume, Y ? @(112, 7.=
2
)
Fariance of % 0.8
2
/12 0.053
Sd of % 0.8/G12 0.23 to 0.231
(*+C*DHT
Stated or used
(*+C*D!D
&1
Standardisin" 112.1 with 112 or 11. and
or or equivalent; allow
(112 - )
$1
% /(Z I 2.131)
% 1 - /(Z A 2.131)
*rea chan"e
$ay be implied by a correct answer
or answer A 7.1
m1
% 0.015 to 0.0153
*D!D (7.7111B)
(1 - answer) &1 $1 ma5
*1

217J
The number of telephone calls received, during an 8-hour period, by an IT company that
reuest an urgent visit by an engineer may be modelled by a !oisson distribution with a mean
of ".
#a$ %etermine the probability that, during a given 8-hour period, the number of telephone calls
received that reuest an urgent visit by an engineer is&
(i) at most 1;
(1)
(ii) e5actly E;
(2)
(iii) at least 1 but fewer than 17.
(.)
(b) Drite down the distribution for the number of telephone calls received each hour that
request an ur"ent visit by an en"ineer.
(1)
(c) The KT company has en"ineers available for ur"ent visits and it may be assumed that
each of these en"ineers ta>es e5actly 1 hour for each such visit.
*t 17 am on a particular day, all en"ineers are available for ur"ent visits.
(i) State the ma5imum possible number of telephone calls received between 17 am and 11
am that request an ur"ent visit and for which an en"ineer is immediately available.
(1)
(ii) (alculate the probability that at 11 am an en"ineer will not be immediately available to
ma>e an ur"ent visit.
()
(d) ,ive a reason why a /oisson distribution may not be a suitable model for the number of
telephone calls per hour received by the KT company that request an ur"ent visit by an en"ineer.
(1)
(Total 1. mar>s)
(i) X ? /o(E)
/(X 1) % 7..71
*D!D 7..77 and 7..71
&1
1
(ii)
$1
% 7.1B
*1
/(L E) - /(L 3)
% 7.1B=E - 7.BE ($1)
% 7.1B (*1)
2
(iii) 7.31 p 7.33
/(L B) - /(L )
&.
7.E2 p 7.E. or 7.12 p 7.1.
/(L 17) - /(L )
/(L B) - /(L 1)
(&2)
7.37
/(L 17) - /(L 1)
(&1)
.
(b) @o. telephone calls received per hour
% Y ? /7 (7.=E1)
&1
1
(c) (i) $a5imum number %
&1
1
(ii) /(Y A ) % /(Y % 7, 1, 2, .)
% 7.13B(1 ) 7.=E1 ) 7..=2= ) 7.111E)
% 7.B=EE7.
*ny correct e5pression (&2)
or *D!D 7.B=E to 7.B==
&2
/(Y M ) % 1 - 7.B=EE
1 - (their /(# A ))
$1
% 7.712.
*D!D 7.7122 and 7.712.
*1

!"
/(# ) % 7.BBE to 7.BB=
or any correct e5pression
&2
/(# I ) % 7.772 to 7.77. $1 *7
(d) probably not constant
The number of calls in any time interval
of 1 hour is li>ely to vary throu"hout the day.
6System 9own8
not independent
41
1
21.J
* district council claimed that more than =7 per cent of the complaints that it received about the
delivery of its services were answered to the satisfaction of complainants before reachin" formal
status.
*n analysis of a random sample of 1E1 complaints revealed that 2= reached formal status.
(i) (onstruct an appro5imate B1N confidence interval for the proportion of complaints that
reach formal status.
(1)
(ii) Oence comment on the council8s claim.
(2)
(b) The district council also claimed that less than 7 per cent of all formal complaints were
due to a failin" in the delivery of its services.
*n analysis of the 17 formal complaints received durin" 277EC7= showed that 13 were due to a
failin" in the delivery of its services.
(i) Psin" an e5act test, investi"ate the council8s claim at the 17N level of si"nificance. The
17 formal complaints received durin" 277EC7= may be assumed to be a random sample.
(1)
(ii) 9etermine the critical value for your test in part (b)(i).
(2)
(iii) Kn fact, only 21 per cent of all formal complaints were due to a failin" in the delivery of
the council8s services.
9etermine the probability of a Type KK error for a test of the council8s claim at the 17N level of
si"nificance and based on the analysis of a random sample of 17 formal complaints.
()
(Total 1= mar>s
(i) 0.1#
(*+; or equivalent
&1
B1N z % 1.9#
*DHT
&1
*ppro5imate (K for p is
Psed
$1
ie 7.13 Q 1.B3
+r equivalent
! on and R
*1!
ie 0.1# Q 0.054 or (0.10#$ 0.214)
(*+C*DHT or *DHT (7.71.)
*1
1
(ii) "% does include 0.2 (27N)
! on (i)
&1!
&o eviden'e to su((ort councils8 claim
! on (i)
9ependent on (K and on 7.2
&1!dep
2
(b) (i) O7 : p % 7.7 (7N)
O1 : p A 7.7
&oth
&1
Psin" & (17, 7.) (7N)
$ay be implied
$1
/(X 13) % 0.15#
*DHT (7.1131)
*1
(alculated probability I 7.17 (17N)
(omparison
$1
&o eviden'e, at 17N level, to su((ort
council8s claim
!(e'ial "ase) @ormal appro5imation
z % *1.15(E) &1 (F % *1.28(13) &1
(onclusion &1! $a5 of mar>s
! on probability v 7.17 or 7.71
*t 17N level, a''e(t (at least) 40+
*llow &1 for hypotheses
p % 7.12. to 7.121 v 7.17 &1 &1
! on R and (F
*1!
1
(ii) Hequire /(X x) 7.17
$ay be implied
K"nore any reasonin" if 6118 stated
$1
(F % 15 ((H 11)
(*+; or equivalent
*1
2
(iii) /(Type KK error) % /(accept O7 S O7 false)
Stated or used; or equivalent
&1
% /(X I (F or X M (F)
*ttempt at a probability I or M (8s (F from (ii)
$1
% 1 - (0.83#9 or 0.,481)
K"nore 61 -8
$1
% 0.1#3
*DHT
*1

21=
(a) * district council claimed that more than =7 per cent of the complaints that it received
about the delivery of its services were answered to the satisfaction of complainants before
reachin" formal status.
*n analysis of a random sample of 1E1 complaints revealed that 2= reached formal status.
(i) (onstruct an appro5imate B1N confidence interval for the proportion of complaints that
reach formal status.
(1)
(ii) Oence comment on the council8s claim.
(2)
(b) The district council also claimed that less than 7 per cent of all formal complaints were
due to a failin" in the delivery of its services.
*n analysis of the 17 formal complaints received durin" 277EC7= showed that 13 were due to a
failin" in the delivery of its services.
(i) Psin" an e5act test, investi"ate the council8s claim at the 17N level of si"nificance. The
17 formal complaints received durin" 277EC7= may be assumed to be a random sample.
(1)
(ii) 9etermine the critical value for your test in part (b)(i).
(2)
(iii) Kn fact, only 21 per cent of all formal complaints were due to a failin" in the delivery of
the council8s services.
9etermine the probability of a Type KK error for a test of the council8s claim at the 17N level of
si"nificance and based on the analysis of a random sample of 17 formal complaints.
()
(Total 1= mar>s)
(a) (i) 0.1#
(*+; or equivalent
&1
B1N z % 1.9#
*DHT
&1
*ppro5imate (K for p is
Psed
$1
ie 7.13 Q 1.B3
+r equivalent
! on and R
*1!
ie 0.1# Q 0.054 or (0.10#$ 0.214)
(*+C*DHT or *DHT (7.71.)
*1
1
(ii) "% does include 0.2 (27N)
! on (i)
&1!
&o eviden'e to su((ort councils8 claim
! on (i)
9ependent on (K and on 7.2
&1!dep
2
(b) (i) O7 : p % 7.7 (7N)
O1 : p A 7.7
&oth
&1
Psin" & (17, 7.) (7N)
$ay be implied
$1
/(X 13) % 0.15#
*DHT (7.1131)
*1
(alculated probability I 7.17 (17N)
(omparison
$1
&o eviden'e, at 17N level, to su((ort
council8s claim
!(e'ial "ase) @ormal appro5imation
z % *1.15(E) &1 (F % *1.28(13) &1
(onclusion &1! $a5 of mar>s
! on probability v 7.17 or 7.71
*t 17N level, a''e(t (at least) 40+
*llow &1 for hypotheses
p % 7.12. to 7.121 v 7.17 &1 &1
! on R and (F
*1!
1
(ii) Hequire /(X x) 7.17
$ay be implied
K"nore any reasonin" if 6118 stated
$1
(F % 15 ((H 11)
(*+; or equivalent
*1
2
(iii) /(Type KK error) % /(accept O7 S O7 false)
Stated or used; or equivalent
&1
% /(X I (F or X M (F)
*ttempt at a probability I or M (8s (F from (ii)
$1
% 1 - (0.83#9 or 0.,481)
K"nore 61 -8
$1
% 0.1#3
*DHT
*1

The random variable X has a probability density function

!or this distribution, you are "iven that
4(X) % T and 4(X
2
) % 2T
2
- =
(a) !ind, in terms of T, the variance of X.
(2)
(b) The mean of a random sample of n observations, X1, X2, X., ..., Xn, is denoted by .
(i) Drite down, in terms of T and n, e5pressions for the mean and the variance of .
(2)
(ii) 45plain why is an unbiased and consistent estimator for T.
(2)
(c) (i) !or a random sample of siRe 1, the median, M, is an unbiased estimator for
T with variance T
2
- .
!or such a sample, calculate the relative efficiency of M with respect to , "ivin" your answer
to three decimal places.
Oence "ive a reason why should be preferred to M as an estimator for T.
(.)
(ii) * particular random sample of 1 observations of X "ave the followin" values.
7.=7 1.BB ..12 ..=B 3.27
(A) ,iven that /(X M 2T) % 7, use this sample to find an inequality for T.
(-) +btain the values of and m for this sample.
(") (omment on your answers in part (c)(ii)(&) in the li"ht of your answers to part (c)(i).
(1)
(Total 1 mar>s
(a) Far(X) % 2TU - = - TU % TU - =
$1*1
2
(b) (i) 4( ) % T
&1
&1
2
(ii) 4( ) % T unbiased
41
Far( ) V 7 as n V W consistent
41
2
(c) (i)
*ny sensible value for T
$1
% 7.131 or 7.133
*1
/refer since H4(M wrt ) A 1
or Far( ) A Far($)
41
.
(ii) (A) 2T > 3.2 T I ..1
M is $1*7
$1*1
(-) % ..27 m % ..12
both
&1
(") is the more efficient estimator,
implyin" that for the ma<ority of samples
it will be closer than M to T.
41
Oowever, for this particular sample m
is closer to T than
41
1
21J
&efore leavin" for a tour of the PX durin" the summer of 277=, 4duardo was told that the PX
price of a 1.1Ylitre bottle of sprin" water was about 17p.
Dhilst on his tour, 4duardo noted the prices, x pence, which he paid for 1.1Ylitre bottles of
sprin" water from 12 retail outlets.
Oe then subtracted 17p from each price and his resultin" differences, in pence, were
-1= -11 1 11 E -1 1E -13 1= -. 7 B
(a) (i) (alculate the mean and the standard deviation of these differences.
(2)
(ii) Oence calculate the mean and the standard deviation of the prices, x pence, paid by
4duardo.
(2)
(b) &ased on an e5chan"e rate of Z1.22 to [1, calculate, in euros, the mean and the standard
deviation of the prices paid by 4duardo.
(.)
(Total E mar>s
-1= -11 1 11 E -1 1E -13 1= -. 7 B
(i) $ean, % 1.5
(*+ \d % 1=
K"nore notation and units (11.E.E or 12.21B)
Standard deviation, d or sd % 11., to 12.3
*D!D \d
2
% 13=7
$ean, % 17 ) % 51.5
! on (a)(i) or correct
&1!
.2 .B 11 31 1E B 3E 3= E 17 1B
% 31= \5
2
% ..=7
K"nore notation and units
Standard deviation, x or sx % 11., to 12.3
! on (a)(i) providin" I 7 or correct
&1!
'(alues, mean or sd in #a$#i$ or #a$#ii$) *
Award if use seen or implied by + 1
Subseuent correct or #correct * 1,,$
answer
-ean . 0.628 to 0.63
A/0/ #,.1283$
Standard deviation . 0.14 to 0.151
A/0/ #,.1432 or ,.1451$
Special Cases:
At least one answer correct with no stated
units or incorrect stated units -1 A1
A1 ma6
At least one answer * 1,, with its units
stated as 7cents8 -1 A1 A1 ma6
At least one answer * 1,, with no units
stated or units stated as euros 9 pence 9 :
-1 only
cents8 attached to + 1 answer * 1,,
8
.
In ;ctober 2,,1, a large number of artists from <ngland each entered a piece of their wor= into
a competition. 0rom a random sample of >,, of these artists, 1,> had their wor= selected to
appear in an e6hibition? the remaining artists had their wor= re@ected. <ach artist was reuired
to indicate their region of residence as Aorth, South, <ast or /est. 0rom the sample, it was
noted that 1>, indicated Aorth as their region of residence, 1,, indicated South and 8,
indicated <ast.
;f those artists who indicated Aorth, 11% had their wor= selected to appear in the e6hibition.
The corresponding percentage for those who indicated South was 12% and that for those who
indicated <ast was 1>%.
#a$ Bopy and complete the following 4 by 2 contingency table, using this information.
Work
Region
Selected Rejected Total
North 24 156 150
South
East
West
Total 105 500
[4 arks!
#b$ 0or an artist entering a piece of wor= into this competition, test, at the 1% level of
signi"cance# $hether selection o% their $ork to a&&ear in the e'hi(ition is
inde&endent o% region o% residence)
[* arks!
#c$ Interpret, in conte6t, your conclusion to the test in part #b$.
[2 arks!
Answers
a$
Select Ce@ect Total
A 24 121 1>,
< 12 88 1,,
S 12 18 8,
/ >" 113 1",
Total 1,> 35> >,,
D, & Selection independent of home region
D1 & Selection not independent of Dome region
1 tail 1E
<6pected freuencies
!ele't .e/e't
& 31.5 118.5
! 21 ,9
0 1#.8 #3.2
1 35., 134.3
2
7.71
(.) . 11.34>
2
Cal

. 24.5" F 11.34> Ce@ect D

o
c$ #i$ There is significant evidence to suggest that selection is not independent of home
region.
#ii$ Artists from the south seem less li=ely to be selected # e6pected higher than observed$
and those from the west seem much more li=ely to be selected #e6pected lower than
observed$.