4-3-08
Options, Futures, and Derivatives
Derivative
• Something that obtains its value from something else
• Financially engineered commodities
• Stripped down combinations of anything you can think of
Options
• A contract that allows you to buy or sell a specified financial asset at a specified
strike price at a specified time and place
o Price = option premium
o Normally sold in 100 share lots
• Come in 2 forms
o Call – option to call in or demand the asset at a specific price over a
specified time period
Typically a bullish action
Only want to act on an option when the share price is above the
strike price listed on the option
o Put – option to sell shares at a specified price over a specified time
Bearish on the prices
Only sell when the market price is lower than the strike price listed
on the put
Ps = strike price
q = option premium
Pt = price of underlying asset at time t
T = terminal time for the option
Calls
πt = Pt – Ps – q0
Profit is the price of the stock at time P less the strike price and the option cost
q = sunk cost, need not be considered when deciding when to exercise the option
Also, at issuance,
πt = P0 – Ps – q0 ≤ 0
Thus,
P 0 ≤ P s + q0
Since profit is current price minus strike price minus the cost of the option, the price at
the issuance of the option, P0, cannot be greater than the strike price plus the option price
or there would be the profit opportunity for infinite arbitrage
Max Profit ∞ q0
Max Loss -q0 -∞
Π
Ps + q0
P0 = Ps
No π opportunity
A buyer of a call or an option needs to monitor the stock price daily in order to know if
it’s a good time to cash in the option.
Sellers do not. They have no further decisions to make.
45º
Ps P
V - seller
Puts
πt = Ps – Pt – q0
Profit for the buyer of a put is the strike price less the price of the stock at time t less the
price of the option
Also,
πt = Ps – P0 – q0 ≤ 0
Thus,
P0 ≤ Ps + q
Again, similar to the case with calls, the market price of the stock at issuance of the
option must be lower than the strike price of the option plus the cost of the option or else
there would be a perfect arbitrage opportunity for infinite profit
Max Profit Ps – q0 q0
Max Loss -q0 - Ps + q0
Payoff map for calls
Price
Path A
No π opportunity
P0 = Ps
P s - q0
Π
Path B
V - buyer
Ps P
V - seller
Expected profit functions for buyers/sellers of calls
Ph = high price outcome
Pl = low price outcome
Π – buyer:
• πh = (Ph – Ps) – q0
• πh = -q0
π = a(Ph – Ps) – q0
The likely profit for the buyer of a call would be the probability of the high price
outcome times the difference between that outcome and the strike price, less the price of
the option
Π – seller:
• πh = q0 + (Ps – Ph)
• π h = q0
π = q0 + (b)(Ps – Ph)
The probable profit for the seller is equal to the price of the option plus the probability of
the high outcome times the difference between the strike price and the high price.
4-8-08
Techniques for using options other than trading them:
• Hedging
• Insurance
Protective put:
• Used if you’re long in an asset – holding it for a long-term profit
• Wise if you’re substantially invested in the asset
PV
π
P0 + q
P0
π
No π opportunity
P0 = Ps
P
To insure against possibly losses you buy a put at the same price as your current asset –
forms a protective floor on your losses such that they can only be equal to the price of the
options instead of an unspecified decline in the stock price.
The Straddle:
• Used when you expect significant volatility
PV Call pay-off function
π
P0 = Ps
PL PH
P
qc + qv
No π opportunity
Pyramid:
• Expect little volatility
o Short term
• Choose a lower bound and an upper bound for P such that P0 – PL = PH – P0
o P0 is between PL and PH
o 2P0 = PL + PH
PV
buy a call #1
buy a call #2
P0
PL PH
P
sell 2 calls
Cost = qL + qH – 2q0
Payoff functions
buy a call #1
buy a call #2
π
C
P0
No π opportunity PL PH No π opportunity P
sell 2 calls
This maneuver would have the effect of increasing the volatility of the stock because it
exploits a steady stock price. Thus, increased use of this strategy would push up the
volatility of the stock.
4-10-08
Options and Option Pricing
• Extremely difficult and complicated
• Always have a terminal value of 0 if not exercised – if it is exercised the value of
the option falls on the value function of the option
Path of V
Ps Pt * Pt
Question: Is the curve above a representation of the equation qt*( Pt*) = Pt* - Ps(1 + r)-T ?
If so, what causes the difference between the two lines to approach zero?
Payoffs
Strategy CF0 PL PH
A – Purchase ‘x’ shares of -xq 0 x(PH – Ps)
option ‘o’
B – two parts
1.) Purchase ‘s’ shares of 1.) -sP0 1.) sPL 1.) sPH
stock 2.) -sPL 2.) -sPL
2.) Borrow PV of PL 2.) + sPL(1 + r)-T
payoff
Net payoffs/CF’s (B) s(PL(1 + r)-T – P0) 0 s(PH – PL)
Set the two payoffs equal [s(PH – PL) = x(PH – Ps)] in order to find the number of shares
you would have to buy to make the payoffs equal.
s = x(PH – Ps)/(PH – PL): this gives the number of shares that you would have to a.) borrow
the PV of the low outcome and b.) purchase in order to equal x options.
Since the number of shares that you would have to buy, s, is equal to x(PH – PL)/(PH – PL),
we can see that [x(PH – Ps)/(PH – PL)]*[(PL(1 + r)-T – P0)] would equal the total cost of
purchasing the shares.
Now, since we want to make the profits between these two ventures completely equal, we
need to equivocate there costs. In order to do so we can set the cost of the options, with
unknown option price q, equal to the costs solved above in order to be in terms of the # of
option shares.
This gives us the price of the options. This functions because we’ve set the payoffs and
the costs of these two strategies equal. We know for sure the costs and payoffs of buying
the shares and borrowing the PV of the PL outcome, so we can solve for the number of
shares in terms of the number of options by setting the two equal. Then, since we know
the number of shares necessary in terms of the number of options, we can set the
beginning costs equal so that the cost of the options will equal the cost of the shares.
This gives us a viable option price.
4-14-08
Firms are exposed to two types of risk:
• Macro risks
o Can be dealt with/anticipated: such as industry risk
• Firm specific risk
o Can be diversified away by shareholders
Essentially, the question is why do firms engage in risk management activities when
shareholders could just as easily do so themselves? Firms have no reason to buy
insurance in perfectly efficient markets where shareholders know all the info about every
firm’s risk and opportunity. They can then just simply diversify and insure themselves.
The question is then, why do firms spend time diversifying risk that they aren’t paid to
cover? The reason comes from the fact that we don’t have perfectly efficient capital
markets and large stakeholders in firms is a necessity to help control the principal agent
problem. Thus, these large holders have not diversified themselves, but they haven’t
done so because they are helping to control the efficiency lessening principal agent
problem.
Firms, then, must examine the risks that they’re being paid to bear and shed those that
they are not being paid to carry.
Options:
• Purchase a call to insure the price of an input.
• Purchase a put to protect revenue
If a firm is able to remove these risks it can concentrate on those it is supposed to bear.
Futures – openly exchanged and traded, all identical contracts, trade like a commodity
Forwards – specifically tailored contracts for a certain party
Futures:
• Futures prices can convey information depending on what the future is for
• Are contracts with specific dates/outcomes
4-17-08
Futures can be used to hedge against risk in interest changes, exchange rate risk, and
revenue risks
• Cost is the concern ~ a firm could have issued variable bonds and be worried
about the possible fluctuations in interest payments and want to solidify this risk
that its not being paid to bear
o The risk is a variable string of payments
o The objective is to convert the variable stream into a fixed stream without
incurring the massive transactions cost associated with converting the debt
into some other form of financing
o The strategy – purchase a variable stream of interest payments while
issuing a fixed income stream as an obligation to pay for the just
purchased variable stream. This leaves you with the obligation to pay a
steady stream and gives you a variable income to match the other variable
cost. Otherwise known as the notional principle.
• Revenue is the concern ~ a portfolio manager could be holding a portfolio of
long-term fixed coupon bonds that would have significant capital gains losses if
the interest rate rises
o Risk – varying portfolio value
o Objective – minimize capital gains risk
o Strategy – enter a swap in which you buy a variable stream on the basis of
the notional principal while simultaneously selling a fixed income stream
of payments. Buy the stream such that any increases in the interest rate
that decreases the portfolio value will provide an insurance income of
equal amount.
• Currency swap ~ company with overseas operations may be able to raise capital
for expansion in another country at home giving the firm the responsibility to
repay the financing with the home currency even though ops will be in the foreign
currency.
o Risk – currency exchange rate could fluctuate and erode an otherwise
profitable venture abroad
o Objective – remove exchange rate risk by swapping dollars for foreign
exchange without being subject to exchange rate risk
o Strategy – borrow domestically, buy foreign currency to make overseas
investment: enter swaps such that you agree to make a series of foreign
exchange payments for a fixed stream of dollar payments in exchange.
Defensive Strategies
• Poison Pill
o Something in the charter of a firm that gives the right of the target firm to
issue shares to stockholders at an attractive low price thus complicating
the merger
• White knight
o Savior firm with whom a possible target has a previous arrangement with
a friendly firm that can come in and purchase the target instead of the
hostile firm
• Shark repellant
o In the event that someone proposes a merger it is in the charter that it
would need more than a super majority to pass the merger
Two questions:
• What is the source of the EVA offered by this merger/acquisition – the economic
gain must be specifically enumerated?
• Do the terms of this action make sense for our shareholders?
1.) Economic gain – present value of the change in free cash flows (PVΔFCF) from
merger
a. Examine economies of scale, scope, and vertical gains for the source of
these EG’s
b. Specifically identify the source/amount of the gains
2.) Cost of cash merger
a. C = cash - EMT: this is incremental cost and shows a premium on the
3.) NPV from the merger = EG – cash + EMT = W* - WA – WT > 0
a. Can use this EG to set a reservation price at which you will stop bidding
The only significant difference between these two methods is the in the cost side.
Sellers prefer the cash option so they can take it and run.
If sellers will accept nothing other than cash that could signify a significant contingent
liability that they haven’t disclosed.
Divide the new NPV by the # of shares to give you the incremental change in share price.
Social imp.
• Beneficials
o Reallocation of resources
o Better use of FCF’s
o Forces management to pay attention
• Bads
o Impact on laid-off employees without retraining programs