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To: The Grimes Campaign
From: The Mellman Group, Inc.
Re: Grimes Has Moved Into The Lead Over McConnell In The Kentucky Senate Race
Date: September 29, 2014
This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 1,800 voters representing the likely 2014 general electorate in Kentucky. Interviews
were conducted by both landline and cell phone September 19-27, 2014, using a registration-based sample. The margin of error for
this survey is +/-2.3% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.
Despite being outspent more than 3-to-1, Alison Lundergan Grimes leads 30-year incumbent Mitch McConnell
by 2 points. Our just completed poll has the largest sample size, and therefore lowest margin of error, of any poll
released in the state thus far. Grimes lead is built on a strong image advantage.
Grimes Leads McConnell
Grimes leads McConnell 42% to
40% with 3% supporting
Libertarian David Patterson and
16% still undecided. These survey
results are based on an unusually
large sample size of 1,800, which
reduces the margin of error to just
over 2 points.
Grimes lead is based on the
significant image advantage she
enjoys over the unpopular
Republican Leader. McConnell
receives overwhelmingly negative
evaluations for his performance in
office (37% positive, 58%
negative), while Grimes
performance is viewed positively
by a narrow margin (40% positive,
39% negative) remaining above
water even after facing $40 million in spending from the other side.
Grimes has consolidated her base, garnering slightly more support from Democrats (75%) than McConnell does
from Republicans (73%). Moreover, independents are increasingly supporting Grimes (38% Grimes, 29%
McConnell, 5% Patterson, 28% undecided). Grimes also leads by double-digits among ideological moderates
(49% Grimes, 27% McConnell).
More Voters See Grimes As Empathetic And As Fighting For Their Economic Interests
Beneath the surface, Grimes has significant advantages on personal attributes that drive voters Election Day
decisions. Significantly larger percentages believe the phrases will work to create good jobs (net +25
percentage points describes Grimes) protects Social Security and Medicare (net +24 percentage points
describes Grimes), cares about people like you (net +20 percentage points describes Grimes), and shares your
values (net +10 percentage points describes Grimes) describe Grimes better than McConnell.