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A decade ago, the business cycle was an endangered species. Since 2009, growth has been as stable as during the Great Moderation's heyday. In America it has averaged a little over 2% for the past four years, and fell almost to zero in the first quarter.
A decade ago, the business cycle was an endangered species. Since 2009, growth has been as stable as during the Great Moderation's heyday. In America it has averaged a little over 2% for the past four years, and fell almost to zero in the first quarter.
A decade ago, the business cycle was an endangered species. Since 2009, growth has been as stable as during the Great Moderation's heyday. In America it has averaged a little over 2% for the past four years, and fell almost to zero in the first quarter.
Sea of tranquillity A decade ago, the business cycle was an endangered species. Recessions in the rich world had become rare, shallow and short; inflation was predictably low and boring. Economists dubbed this the Great Moderation and gave credit for it to deft macroeconomic management by central banks. Such talk, naturally, ended abruptly with the financial crisis. But obituaries of the Great Moderation may have been premature. Since America emerged from recession in 2009, its growth, although low, has been as stable as during the Great Moderations heyday, from the early 1980s to 2007, judging by the volatility of quarterly gross domestic product and monthly job creation. That, in turn, has pushed the gyrations of stock and bond prices to their lowest levels since 2007. The trend is less pronounced outside America, but economists at Goldman Sachs nonetheless find that pre-crisis levels of tranquility have returned in Germany, Japan and Britain. It is the absolute level of growth that has been disappointing. In America it has averaged a little over 2% for the past four years, and fell almost to zero in the first quarter of this year. This looks like a temporary setback due to bad weather, but the Federal Reserves hopes for an acceleration to nearly 3% seem likely to be dashed once again. The euro zone, meanwhile, grew by just 0.8% in the first quarter (on an annualised basis), half the pace economists had predicted, but perfectly in line with the average of the previous nine months.
01. It is inferred by the beginning of first paragraph that the business cycle: a) had ended. b) could be revived. c) should be revived. d) had been tamed. e) shouldnt have been tamed.
02. The Great Moderation a) has already died. b) should have been controlled. c) hasnt died yet. d) need to be revived. e) cant endure such economic conditions.
03. The Feds hopes: a) were too much utopic. b) had to be changed. c) has to be cut by 0,8%. d) cannot come to terms with Europe. e) dont seem to get achievable.
04. According to the text, a) the recession of 2009 has been hurting the American economy. b) the growth in Europe has been great. c) Americas growth has been likely to achieve 3% for the year. d) nobody is sure of how the economy will react to the Great Moderation. e) not just America is experiencing the sea of tranquility mentioned in the title.
Curso: Carreiras Pblicas Nvel Superior Prof. Rene Maas Disciplina: Online Ingls
Hospitals Look to Health Law, Cutting Charity Hospital systems around the country have started scaling back financial assistance for lower- and middle-income people without health insurance, hoping to push them into signing up for coverage through the new online marketplaces created under the Affordable Care Act. The trend is troubling to advocates for the uninsured, who say raising fees will inevitably cause some to skip care rather than buy insurance that they consider unaffordable. Though the number of hospitals tightening access to free or discounted care appears limited so far, many say they are considering doing so, and experts predict that stricter policies will become increasingly common. Driving the new policies is the cost of charity care, which is partly covered by government but remains a burden for many hospitals. The new law also reduces federal aid to hospitals that treat large numbers of poor and uninsured people, creating an additional pressure on some to restrict charity care. In St. Louis, Barnes-Jewish Hospital has started charging co-payments to uninsured patients, no matter how poor they are. The Southern New Hampshire Medical Center in Nashua no longer provides free care for most uninsured patients who are above the federal poverty line $11,670 for an individual. By tightening requirements for charity care, hospital executives say, they hope to encourage eligible people to obtain low-cost insurance through the subsidized private plans now available under the law.
05. Charity care a) isnt the way to go for now. b) may suffer for some time in the present scenario. c) would cost over ten thousand dollar to hospital to be performed. d) is only going to be provided to insured patients. e) has to be utterly cut.
06. In the hospitals mentioned a) charity care has been decreased. b) there is lack of money to care patients. c) subsidized private plans are being sold. d) charity care has been doomed. e) poor patients have to pay for part of medical care.
07. Government aid to hospitals a) isnt enough to provide full charity care. b) is limited to $11,670. c) is tightening their action regarding medical car to both insured and insured patients. d) ought to be reduced. e) should be directed to subsidizing private plans.
08. According to the text, a) poor patients have it worse regarding medical care. b) low-cost insurance doesnt apply to the case. c) several hospitals arent following the law. d) government policies have been helping poor patients. e) free care isnt supposed to be provided.
The technologies to halt global warming
Curso: Carreiras Pblicas Nvel Superior Prof. Rene Maas Disciplina: Online Ingls
The technologies to halt global warming for 50 years already exist, according to research published this week in the journal Science. The studys authors, Stephen Pacala and Rob Socolow, say that implementing them should begin immediately. The researchers identified 15 technologies that store carbon, provide energy without producing carbon emissions or improve the efficiency of carbon-based energy suppliers. They say the large-scale use of any one of any of these has the potential to reduce global carbon emissions by at least one billion tons a year by 2054. Options available include renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, switching of fuel from coal to nuclear or natural-gas supplies, storage of carbon dioxide produced by power plants, more efficient use of car fuel and electricity, increasing the global forested area, and the use of biomass fuels, such as ethanol.
09. According to the article, The technologies to halt global warming for 50 years already exist. In other words, global warming may be a) researched. b) successfully mapped. c) gradually increased. d) decreased. e) stopped.
10. According to the text, a) 15 technologies will have been implemented up to 2054. b) global carbon emissions might be decreased. c) renewable energy sources must have been forbidden. d) researchers ought to identify the sources of global warming. e) global carbon emissions have been halted.
Is it too early to jump back into the market? Brave investors were urged to buy beleaguered British retailers, banks and housebuilders last week, despite warnings that the bear market could last well into next year. Stock markets in general are expected to remain choppy for the next six to nine months as investors fret over the double whammy of slower growth and higher inflation. However, many British banks and retailers have already slumped by as much as 60% from their peaks last year as traders have priced in a 1990-style recession. If this is avoided, as many economists believe, investors will be able to snap up household names at bargain prices. The Federal Reserve has cut rates aggressively to boost the economy and consumer spending and payroll numbers have been remarkably robust. It is a closer call in Britain, where the Bank of England has been less aggressive in cutting rates and the property downturn is a step behind the US. However, most economists still think the UK will avoid a recession. Most analysts agree it is too late to sell. If you have a balanced portfolio, they suggest you sit tight, while brave investors could start dripfeeding money into the markets.
11. A balanced portfolio a) has given huge gains. b) has provided worries. c) isnt good at all. d) had been cut by the Fed. e) is the best bet for now.
Curso: Carreiras Pblicas Nvel Superior Prof. Rene Maas Disciplina: Online Ingls
12. According to the text, a) a 1990-style recession would bring future gains. b) British retailers would better sit tight. c) some good deals are making British retailers profit.. d) the mentioned recession isnt much believed to happen. e) it wouldnt be easy to avoid such a recession.
Fatal attraction Unlike the girl from Ipanema, the reals swings and sways have been anything but cool and gentle. Foreign investors infatuation buoyed up the currency from its winter lows by 54.5% against the dollar and 23% in trade-weighted terms, until the government said too much and placed a 2% tax on portfolio inflows. Though offended investors let both stock prices and the real slip, this was a good choice by the government. Justifying it as exchange rate management, however, is starting at the wrong end of things. The appreciating real is a symptom of Brazils conundrum; the underlying cause is capital inflows that have been increasing in intensity for years, temporarily interrupted by the financial crisis. With this attraction come problems. One is the opportunity cost of $222bn of reserves that, bearing virtually no interest, are a costly way to insure against capital flight. Then there is the risk that hot money will disrupt the economy. Capital increasingly enters Brazil as portfolio investment rather than foreign direct investment. Brazils imminent status as a big oil exporter adds to the pressure. The government is wise to worry before it is too late. Our fragile and febrile global monetary system leaves emerging countries with few options to contain bubbles, all worse than this tax. A successful Brazil will have to live with a strong real. The tax does not alter that fact, but it helps keep the task manageable.
13. The real swings a) havent been profitable. b) were all about cool and gentle. c) werent almost noted. d) havent been cool. e) are the underlying cause of capital inflows.
14. For Brazil, becoming an oil exporter is an issue which a) is too delicate to discuss for now. b) has attracted too many problems. c) has brought capital inflows. d) has brought a financial crisis. e) hasnt brought much good.
15. According to the text, a) Brazilian reserves are costly to maintain. b) the real has lost much of its value face to dollar. c) problems are the alternative to the weak dollar. d) the mentioned tax has brought problems to Brazil. e) the Brazilian real has lost 54.5% against the dollar.
An effort to promote entrepreneurship in the developing world is bearing fruit
Curso: Carreiras Pblicas Nvel Superior Prof. Rene Maas Disciplina: Online Ingls
Earlier this year Mario Chady faced a crucial decision. Having built up Spoleto, a chain of casual Italian restaurants, to 150 outlets in Brazil, and opened in Mexico and Spain, the time had come for him to choose between expanding into America or putting the idea on hold for at least 18 months. To help make up his mind, he asked for help from an organisation called Endeavor, which had chosen him as a potential high-impact entrepreneur. Endeavor is a non-profit group dedicated to promoting entrepreneurship in emerging economies. It had already supplied three teams to help Mr. Chady craft a strategy for America. But as he spoke to members of the Endeavor network, ranging from leading Brazilian business tycoons to fellow up-and-coming entrepreneurs, he became convinced that it was the right strategy but the wrong time. He decided to concentrate on expanding even faster in Brazil, and leave America for later. It is routine for entrepreneurs to consult their networks of mentors in Silicon Valley. But in much of the world, such networks are notable by their absence, and so, too, are examples of Silicon Valley-style successful entrepreneurship. Changing this was why Endeavor was created in 1997. Much of the difference between countries such as America, where entrepreneurship thrives, and those where it doesnt is cultural rather than regulatory. In many emerging economies, business tends to be dominated by a closed elite hostile to new entrepreneurs, and failure is stigmatised, rather than being a badge of honour, as it is in Silicon Valley.
16. Mr. Chady a) hasnt had the necessary help. b) wasnt able to make a decision. c) wasnt able to make a decision himself. d) didnt want to make such decision by himself. e) hasnt followed the advice given.
17. Endeavor a) favors entrepreneurship. b) didnt want to help Mr. Chady. c) couldnt help Mr. Chady. d) was against Mr. Chadys decisions. e) isnt up to such a decision.
18. According to the text, it is inferred that a) Brazil is a better place for investments. b) emerging countries dont like new investors. c) failures are just part of entrepreneurship. d) Mr. Chadys decision wont prove right. e) consultancy is a very profitable business.
Green taxes 'under threat from Treasury', claims Greenpeace Greenpeace and other development agencies have written to the prime minister calling on him to exercise authority over the Treasury and stop it blocking vital climate change initiatives. The call comes ahead of a report to be published by the Green Fiscal Commission, which will call for a dramatic 150bn shake-up in the country's fiscal system, including a 3,300 tax on new cars and a tripling of fuel duties over the next decade, to be balanced by a cut in income tax and national insurance. The non- governmental organisations claim that the Treasury is preventing a green tax being slapped on the aviation and shipping industries that would fund mitigation schemes in poorer countries. And they fear that calls in the GFC report for a package of new green
Curso: Carreiras Pblicas Nvel Superior Prof. Rene Maas Disciplina: Online Ingls
taxes on businesses and households at a time of economic difficulty will also be stopped by Whitehall mandarins. The Labour government came into power promising a shift to a policy of the "polluter pays" but Greenpeace believes it began to retreat from that position, notably after fuel protests caused oil refineries to be blockaded and widespread disruption. The transport lobby went on the attack today, with the Freight Transport Association (FTA) saying the government was already using too much stick and very little carrot with road users. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said it was alarmed at the idea of levies on new cars at a time when the industry is in recession.
19. The Greenpeace a) doesnt like the governments economic approach. b) believes taxation is the solution to the environment. c) is fighting the Treasury over taxes. d) cant take its fight far away. e) has protested over oil refineries being blockaded.
20. It is inferred that the British government, regarding Greenpeaces request, a) isnt much likely to take its side. b) is utterly favorable to it. c) would extend the issue to non-governmental organizations. d) would prefer an approach that leads to no contest. e) is to listen the FTA.
21. According to the text, a) much opposition to the tax has come from the FTA and the mentioned Society. b) new taxes on cars could lead to a recession for that industry. c) Greenpeace contends that a 3,300 tax on new cars isnt enough. d) oil refineries would be hardly hit with the mentioned tax. e) the Treasury has no authority on the matter.
End of the golden era After years of talking up Chinas gravity-defying property markets, local land kings are now singing a darker tune. Official data show the countrys property market is coming down to earth. During the first four months of this year, the value of residential sales fell by nearly 10% versus a year ago, and construction activity on new homes fell by a quarter. The decline on a month-to-month basis is even more striking. Why is the market losing steam? One explanation is that there is too much building going on. Cooling demand is another culprit. Despite a cultural affinity for property - no bachelor can hope to win over a desirable bride if he does not own a home - it seems that punters may now be ready to put off their purchases. After years of double-digit growth, the economy is slowing. More importantly, recent price cuts of a third or more being offered by developers in some markets have started to worry would-be buyers. Some think the price cuts will lead to another market rebound. Others hope policy easing will do the trick. Cities are starting to reverse previous bans on owning multiple homes, for example, and the central bank has once again recently encouraged banks to extend mortgages.
Bribing the markets
Curso: Carreiras Pblicas Nvel Superior Prof. Rene Maas Disciplina: Online Ingls
Uncertainty is different from risk, as Frank Knight, an economist, first pointed out in 1921. A poker player can figure out the odds of success when holding a pair of kings. But when dealing with macroeconomic events or forecasting stockmarket movements, you do not know the potential distribution of outcomes. Choosing to buy a house, for example, involves a series of bets on land prices, interest rates, taxes, job prospects and future planning decisions in the area selected. It is impossible for any buyer to be confident about so many variables. Any decision must be a guess. Buyers usually accept this constraint and make the best guess they can. But when uncertainty increases substantially, the temptation is to freeze until the situation becomes clearer. Consumers delay their spending plans; companies halt their capital expenditure. But uncertainty also has another impact. The stockmarket is used both as a barometer of investors risk aversion and as a lead indicator of economic health. When investors are uncertain, they have a preference for holding cash and the price of shares falls. That in turn feeds back to the economy through a further downward effect on confidence. Over the past 25 years, the authorities have had a tried-and-trusted method for bringing a halt to this vicious circle: cutting interest rates. The bigger the crisis, the faster and farther they have to cut. That is why British interest rates are lower than they have been in the 300-year-plus history of the Bank of England.
178. Macroeconomic events a) are better forecast by poker players. b) arent easy to have their results pinpointed. c) depend on the chances to show results. d) dont lead an investor to a decision. e) are too difficult to be obtained.
179. Risk-averse investors a) arent usually willing to invest in shares. b) have become so once share prices have dropped. c) feed the economy with the power it needs to thrive. d) dont know where to put their money in such situations. e) should better stay off the market for good.
180. According to the text, a) cutting interest rates has no practical effect on the economy. b) the economy is too weak to be borne by investors. c) bigger crisis tend to bring higher profits for risk-averse investors. d) there is always some degree of guessing in the market. e) this isnt the best time to invest in the real estate market.
Hoping to slow the rising cost of providing health coverage, 50 of the countrys largest employers are creating a buyers club to bargain directly with drug makers on behalf of five million active and retired employees and their families. The move is a major change from the current industry practice of employers paying middlemen to provide drug coverage for their insured workers. Those prices are supposed to be at discounted rates. But because drug pricing is notoriously opaque, employers cannot be sure they are getting the best possible deal. By shrinking the role of middlemen, the employers hope to seize control of a system that they say has fueled one of their fastest-growing costs. The 50 employers in the buyers group spent roughly $4 billion for prescription drugs last year. Over all, the nations employers spend more than $70 billion through pharmacy benefit managers, and their drug bills rose 9.1%
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in 2003, on top of eight years of double-digit increases. Employers say they typically cannot determine the true costs of drugs, and note that their bills are largely based on discounts from average wholesale prices that are quoted by the industry but that no one actually pays. Even when prices are lowered, employers overall costs keep rising, because manufacturers offer rebates to the pharmacy benefit managers that lead them to encourage higher use of multibillion-dollar products.
181. Those mentioned employers a) dont want to offer drug benefits anymore. b) complain of the discounts they get. c) believe middlemen should be important. d) would raise their drug expenses to $70 billion. e) want to substitute pharmacy benefit managers by middlemen.
182. Drug costs to employers a) have been steadfastly risen. b) were never that important as now. c) determine how much benefit is given. d) have been benefited. e) shouldnt embrace so many products.
183. According to such employers, a) $70 billion isnt enough for such benefit. b) lower prices arent good. c) dealing directly with manufacturers would be better. d) costs of such benefits cannot grow above the $70 billion limit. e) average wholesale prices arent applicable to the case.