Journal of Global Change and Governance Volume III, Number 1Winter 2009IN!

19"1#$%&0
CAUSES OF ETHNIC CONFLICT: A CONCEPTUAL
FRAMEWORK
Bojana Blagojevic
'((i(tant )rofe((or of )olitical cience, *aGuardia Communit+ College, Cit+
,niver(it+ of Ne- .or/
The article proposes a multi-dimensional conceptual framework for understanding causes of ethnic conflict,
specifically focusing on the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina. I argue that ethnic conflict occurs when a particular
set of factors and conditions converge: a maor structural crisis! presence of historical memories of inter-ethnic
grievances! institutional factors that promote ethnic intolerance! manipulation of historical memories "y
political entrepreneurs to evoke emotions such as fear, resentment and hate toward the #other$! and an inter-
ethnic competition over resources and rights. The article e%plores a way in which maor ethnic conflict theories:
primordialist, institutional, political entrepreneurs and competition over resources, can "e com"ined to e%plain
how the interaction of these factors leads to conflict. The goal of the proposed framework is to depart from
simplistic e%planations of ethnic conflict and provide a "asis for a more comprehensive approach to
peace"uilding and post-conflict development strategies in ethnically divided societies0
KEYWORS
E!"nic Con#lic!$ #o%&e% Y'go(lavia
BIO)RAPHICAL STATEMENT
1o2ana 1lago2evic received her doctoral degree in Global 'ffair( from 3utger( ,niver(it+,
Ne- Jer(e+, in 4ctober 200"0 5he to6ic of her di((ertation -a( &thnic 'onflict and (ost-
'onflict )evelopment: (eace"uilding in &thnically )ivided *ocieties 7ca(e (tudie( included
conflict( in 1o(nia#8er9egovina, 3-anda and ri *an/a:0 )rior to her em6lo+ment at
*aGuardia, )rof0 1lago2evic taught )olitical cience and Global tudie( cour(e( at 3utger(
,niver(it+ in Ne- Jer(e+0 he al(o -or/ed tem6oraril+ a( a Conflict )revention
6eciali(t;Con(ultant at the ,nited Nation( <evelo6ment Grou6 4ffice in Ne- .or/0 )rof0
1lago2evic=( re(earch intere(t( include cau(e( of -ar, conflict re(olution and 6eacebuilding0
>Journal of Global Change and Governance <ivi(ion of Global 'ffair( 3utger( ,niver(it+
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
1o2ana 1lago2evic
?2
In!%o*'c!ion
'( Jame( @earon and <avid *aitin argue, Aa good theor+ of ethnic conflict (hould be able to
eB6lain -h+, de(6ite the greater ten(ion(, 6eaceful and coo6erative CethnicD relation( are b+
far more t+6ical outcome than i( large (cale violence0E
1
'ccording to them, becau(e of the
benefit( of 6eace and the co(t( of inter#ethnic violence, Adecentrali9ed in(titutional
arrangement( are li/el+ to ari(e to moderate 6roblem( of interethnic o66ortuni(m0E
2
'lthough
6eaceful re(olution of inter#ethnic ten(ion( (hould al-a+( 6revail a( a rational, more
beneficial a66roach, violent ethnic conflict( continue to occur acro(( the -orld0 5he global
communit+ i( haunted b+ 6h+(ical and emotional con(eFuence( of recent ethnic violence (uch
a( the ethnic clean(ing in 1o(nia, genocide in 3-anda and <arfur, and (ectarian violence in
IraF0 Continuou( eBamination of the cau(e( of ethnic conflict i( nece((ar+, (o that -e ma+
develo6 a better under(tanding of -hat cau(e( the brea/do-n of 6eace in variou( multi#ethnic
conteBt( and create a more com6rehen(ive ba(i( for 6eacebuilding and 6o(t#conflict
develo6ment in ethnicall+ divided (ocietie(0 *iterature on cau(e( of ethnic conflict cover( a
number of com6eting theorie(0 ome of the ma2or eB6lanation( include! 6rimordiali(t,
in(titutional, 6olitical entre6reneur(, and com6etition over re(ource( theorie(0 1ut, a( Jalali
and *i6(et argue, AGiven the variet+ of ethnic conflict( and their d+namic and fluid Fualitie(,
no one factor can 6rovide a com6rehen(ive eB6lanation0E
G
In thi( article, I 6ro6o(e a conce6tual frame-or/ for under(tanding violent ethnic
conflict that combine( the above mentioned a66roache(0 5he danger of attem6ting to develo6
a com6rehen(ive a66roach for under(tanding a 6henomenon that manife(t( in variou(
conteBt(, acro(( the globe, i( (im6l+ the one of tr+ing to do Atoo much0E 3ather than offering
a com6rehen(ive theor+ of ethnic conflict, I eB6lore (ome of the eBi(ting eB6lanation( and the
-a+( and eBtent to -hich the(e a66roache( are com6lementar+ in hel6ing u( con(truct a
broader conce6tual frame-or/ for under(tanding the com6leBitie( of violent inter#grou6
conflict0
"
I argue that ethnic conflict occur( -hen a 6articular (et of factor( and condition(
converge! a ma2or (tructural cri(i(H 6re(ence of hi(torical memorie( of inter#ethnic
1
Jame( <0 @earon and <avid <0 *aiting, AIB6laining Interethnic Coo6eration,E The +merican (olitical *cience
,eview, Vol0 90, No0", <ecember 199&, 60 %1J0
2
Ibid0, 60 %G00
G
3ita Jalali and e+mour Kartin *i6(et, A3acial and Ithnic Conflict(! ' Global )er(6ective,E (olitical *cience
-uarterly, Vol0 10%, No0 ", 1992#9G, 60 &000
"
@or other attem6t( to develo6 a AglobalE eB6lanation of inter#grou6 conflict (ee, for eBam6le! 5ed 3obert Gurr,
AWh+ Kinoritie( 3ebel! ' Global 'nal+(i( of Communal Kobili9ation and Conflict ince 19"J,E International
(olitical *cience ,eview, Vol0 1", No0 2, '6ril 199G0 Gurr u(e( a (tati(tical anal+(i( of 22% communal grou6(
acro(( the -orld to develo6 a general eB6lanation for ho- -h+ the(e grou6( mobili9e to defend their intere(t(0
8e find( that factor( (uch a( cultural identit+, ineFualitie(, and hi(torical lo(( of autonom+ contribute to grou6
grievance(, -hile democrac+, (tate 6o-er, and in(titutional change determine the form in -hich the conflict
manife(t( 7e0g0 6rote(t or rebellion:0 'l(o (ee @ranLoi( Niel(en, A5o-ard a 5heor+ of Ithnic olidarit+,E
+merican *ociological ,eview, Vol0 J0, No0 2, '6ril 19$J0 Niel(en argue( that indu(triali9ation and
develo6ment affect (ocial trend( in a -a+ that facilitate( mobili9ation along ethnic line(;ethnic (olidarit+0 8e
u(e( a general model of ethnic collective action to eBamine ethnic re(urgencie( in modern (ociet+0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?G
grievance(H in(titutional factor( that 6romote ethnic intoleranceH mani6ulation of hi(torical
memorie( b+ 6olitical entre6reneur( to evo/e emotion( (uch a( fear, re(entment, and hate
to-ard the AotherE
J
H and an inter#ethnic com6etition over re(ource( and right(0 @igure 1
illu(trate( a (eFuentiall+ ordered chain of cau(alit+ among the(e factor(0
Fig'%e + , Ca'(e( o# E!"nic Con#lic!: Conce-!'al F%a&e.o%/
PRESENT FACTORS
+ +
K'J43
53,C5,3'*
C8'NGI!
,ncertaint+,
In(tabilit+,
@ear
8i(torical memorie( of
grievance(
)olitical entre6reneur(
In(titutional;6olitical (+(tem
factor( facilitating intolerance
OUTCOME
I
C4K)I5I5I4N
IN54*I3'NCI
VI4*IN5 I58NIC
C4N@*IC5
Iach ethnic conflict ha( it( o-n uniFue characteri(tic( and, in different conteBt(, (ome
of the(e element( -ill be more 6rominent than the other(, but all of them are the Acommon
denominator(E nece((ar+ for ethnic conflict to occur0 5he 6rimordiali(t a66roach hel6(
eB6lain the role of emotion( and the conflict 6otential of ethnicit+0 5he in(titutional, 6olitical
entre6reneur( and com6etition over re(ource( a66roache( eB6lain ho- the interaction of
in(titutional and 6olitical factor( -ith ethnic emotions
&
lead( to ethnification, ethnic
intolerance, com6etition, and eventuall+ M violent conflict0
Ithnicall+ diver(e (ocietie( carr+ variou( degree( of conflict 6otential0 Ithnic
emotion(, rooted in hi(torical memorie( of grievance(, are at the core of conflict 6otential0
Ithnicit+, a( <onald 8oro-it9 argue(, Aembodie( an element of emotional inten(it+ that can
be readil+ arou(ed -hen the grou6N( intere(t( are thought to be at (ta/e0E
%
' (udden, ma2or
(tructural change 7(uch a( the colla6(e of communi(m in 1o(nia and decoloni9ation in
3-anda and ri *an/a: u6(et( 6reviou( 6olitical and in(titutional arrangement(0 When the(e
in(titutional mechani(m( are no longer in 6lace, countrie( face a 6eriod of 6olitical and
economic tran(ition Ain -hich the old no longer -or/( -hile the ne- -ill not +et function
J
@or more information on the role of emotion( in ethnic conflict (ee! 3oger <0)eter(en, .nderstanding &thnic
/iolence: 0ear, Hatred, and ,esentment in Twentieth-'entury &astern &urope, 7Cambridge! Cambridge
,niver(it+ )re((, 2002:0
&
In thi( article, the term Aethnic emotion(E i( u(ed to refer to emotion( of animo(it+ (uch a( fear, hate,
re(entment and rage to-ard the AotherE ethnic grou6(0
%
<onald *0 8oro-it9, &thnic 1roups in 'onflict, 7*o( 'ngele(! ,niver(it+ of California )re((, 19$J:, 60 J90
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
CONTE0T
1o2ana 1lago2evic
?"
and the (ocial co(t( gro-0E
$
5hi( create( a conteBt of in(tabilit+ and uncertaint+ about the
6olitical, (ocial, and economic future of the communitie(, or M to u(e *a/e and 3othchildN(
term M Acollective fears of the future0E
9
uch a (ituation facilitate( a manife(tation of
emotional antagoni(m( among ethnic grou6(0 )olitical entre6reneur(, in their Fue(t for 6o-er,
mobili9e ethnic con(tituencie( b+ 6romoting inter#ethnic animo(itie( u(ing the rhetorical
-ea6on( of blame, fear, and hate0 5hi( re(ult( in an inter#ethnic com6etition over re(ource(
and right(, -hich i( accom6anied b+ a recon(truction of (ocial categorie( of Ainclu(ionE and
AeBclu(ion,E ethnification and ethnic intolerance0 Ithnification i( defined a( a (ituation in
-hich Athe (ocial, 6(+chological, and 6olitical im6ortance of ethnic identitie( ri(e relative to
other identitie(,E
10
and ethnic intolerance refer( to a denial of acce(( to re(ource( and right( to
other ethnic grou6(0 In thi( article, the term( Aethnic grou6E and a AnationE -ill be u(ed
interchangeabl+ to refer to! Aa bod+ of individual( -ho 6ur6ortedl+ (hare cultural or racial
characteri(tic(, e(6eciall+ common ance(tr+ or territorial origin, -hich di(tingui(h them from
member( of other grou6(0E
11
While it i( recogni9ed here that a AnationE can al(o refer to a
grou6 of 6eo6le -ho live in the (ame nation#(tate and that (uch a grou6 ma+ con(i(t of more
than one Aethnic grou6,E for the 6ur6o(e( of thi( article, the t-o term( are u(ed to refer to the
definition of a grou6 a( Fuoted above0
5he fir(t (ection of thi( article di(cu((e( the theoretical element( of the 6ro6o(ed
frame-or/ for under(tanding ethnic conflict0 5he relation(hi6 bet-een each theor+ and the
factor( that contribute to ethnic conflict i( illu(trated in @igure 20 In the (econd 6art of the
article, the 6ro6o(ed conce6tual frame-or/ i( a66lied to the ca(e of 1o(nia and
8er9egovina0
12
$
Georg 1runner, 2ationality (ro"lems and 3inority 'onflicts in &astern &urope, 7GOter(loh! 1ertel(mann
@oundation )ubli(her(, 199&:, 60 920
9
<avid '0*a/e and <onald 3othchild, AContaining @ear! 5he 4rigin( and Kanagement of Ithnic Conflict,E
International *ecurity, Vol0 21, No0 2, @all 199&, 60 "10
10
Kurat omer, AIB6laining the 8ardl+ )redictable! Cau(e( and Con(eFuence( of Ithnification,E Wor/ing
)a6er, Center for International tudie(, ,C, November 12, 199%0
11
Chaim Paufmann, A)o((ible and Im6o((ible olution( to Ithnic Civil War(,E International *ecurity, Vol0 20,
No0 ", 6ring 199&, 60 1G$0
12
5he frame-or/ ha( al(o been a66lied to ethnic conflict( in 3-anda and ri *an/a0 ee 1o2ana 1lago2evic,
AIthnic Conflict and )o(t#Conflict <evelo6ment! )eacebuilding in Ithnicall+ <ivided ocietie(,E 7)h0<0
di((ertation, 3utger( ,niver(it+, 200":0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?J
Fig'%e 1: Ca'(e( o# E!"nic Con#lic!: T"eo%e!ical Ele&en!(
Con!e2!:
MA3OR STRUCTURAL
CHAN)E
T"eo%4
)rimordali(t
IB6lain(
IB6lain
r
<
v
ETHNIC EMOTIONS$
CONFLICT POTENTIAL
ociall+ con(tructed (en(e of
A6rimordialE grou6 hi(tor+ and
animo(it+ ba(ed on hi(torical
memorie( of grievance(;in2u(tice
t
Interaction of in(titutional and
6olitical factor( -ith ethnic emotion(
lead( to
ETHNIFICATION
ETHNIC INTOLERANCE$
COMPETITION
+
5IOLENT ETHNIC
CONFLICT
P%i&o%*iali(! A--%oac"
5he 6rimordiali(t a66roach a((ert( the eBi(tence of Aancient hatred(E among ethnic and
cultural grou6(! Athe urge to define and re2ect the other goe( bac/ to our remote(t human
ance(tor(, and indeed be+ond them to our animal 6redece((or(0E
1G
'ccording to thi( vie-,
Atendencie( to-ard Beno6hobia and intolerance are more natural to human (ocietie( than
liberal 6olitic( of intere(t0E
1"
5he 6rimordiali(t a66roach hel6( eB6lain the role of emotion( in
1G
Quoted in 1ernard *e-i(, AKu(lim(, Chri(tian( and Je-(! 5he <ream of CoeBi(tence,E 2ew 4ork ,eview of
Books, 2& Karch 1992, 60 "$0
1"
1everl+ Cra-ford, A5he Cau(e( of Cultural Conflict! 'n In(titutional '66roachE in 1everl+ Cra-ford and
3onnie <0 *i6(chut9, ed(0, The 3yth of #&thnic 'onflict$, International and 'rea tudie( 3e(earch
erie(;Number 9$, 71er/ele+! ,niver(it+ of California, 199$:, 60110
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
1o2ana 1lago2evic
?&
ethnic conflict and the conflict 6otential of ethnicit+0 While ethnic emotion( a66ear to be
primordial, the+ are a (ociall+ and 6oliticall+ con(tructed realit+ M
dra-n from the hi(torical memorie( of 6a(t in2u(tice( and grievance(0 un+ illu(trate( thi( b+
(tating that,
National identitie( are (aturated -ith emotion( that have been created through
teaching, re6etition, and dail+ re6roduction until the+ become common (en(e07R:
5he(e tro6e( M betra+al, treacher+, threat( from other(, and (urvival M are embedded in
familiar emotion( M anBiet+, fear, in(ecurit+, and 6ride0
1J
Grou6 hi(tor+ i( (ociall+ con(tructed0 '( un+ argue(, ANation( are 6articular form( of
collectivit+ that are con(tituted b+ a 6roce(( of creating hi(torie(0E
1&
National hi(tor+, he
further eB6lain(, i( con(tructed (o that it con(i(t( of Acontinuit+, antiFuit+ of origin(, heroi(m
and 6a(t greatne((, mart+rdom and (acrifice, victimi9ation and overcoming of trauma0E
1%
'l(o, Athe 6a(t7R:give( thi( 6articular form of imagined communit+ a 6otent claim to
territor+, the Shomeland0NE
1$
We cannot 6rove that ethnic animo(itie( are 6rimordial, but -e can e(tabli(h their
hi(torical root( in collective memor+0 )ra9au(/a( define( a hi(torical memor+ of an ethnic
grou6 a( a A(et of idea( about the 6a(t hi(tor+ of the grou6, it( hi(torical relation( -ith other
grou6(, ethnic image( and (elf#image(0E
19
Ithnic communitie( u(e hi(torical memorie( of 6a(t
grievance( a( a 6oint of reference M a (ource of ethnic animo(itie( and a 2u(tification for
di(criminator+ action( again(t other ethnic grou6(0 '( 'hmed '/bar note(,
8i(tor+ i( em6lo+ed to buttre(( ethnic and religiou( 6olemic( and, more im6ortantl+,
to reclaim and re#con(truct ethnic identit+7R:8onour, identit+ and the media, the 6a(t
and the future, the ri(e of -hat i( called fundamentali(m or revivali(m all relate to the
hi(torical reference 6oint(0
20
imilarl+, 3oth(child argue( that, under the contem6orar+ condition( of ra6id change,
A6eo6le often cleave to, or redi(cover, or even invent, their ethnicit+ M 6utativel+ rooted in
1J
3onald Grigor un+, AWh+ We 8ate .ou! 5he )a((ion( of 3eligiou( and Ithnic Violence,E ' 5al/ for
)urdue ,niver(it+, November %, 20020
1&
3onald Grigor un+, ACon(tructing )rimordiali(m! 4ld 8i(torie( for Ne- Nation(,E The 5ournal of 3odern
History, Vol0 %G, No0 ", <ecember 2001, 60 $&90
1%
Ibid0, 60 $%00
1$
Ibid0
19
'lgi( )ra9au(/a(, AIthnic Identit+, 8i(torical Kemor+, and Nationali(m in )o(t#oviet tate(E, Wor/ing )a6er,
Karch 199J in 'olum"ia International +ffairs 6nline, 6aragra6h 12, htt6!;;---0ciaonet0org, 7acce((ed J Jul+
200":0
20
'hmed 0 '/bar, ANIthnic Clean(ingN! ' Keta6hor of 4ur 5imeT,E &thnic and ,acial *tudies, Vol0 1$, No0 1,
199J, 60 200
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?%
S6rimordialN bond( M for 6er(onal identification, emotional (ecurit+, and communal
anchorage0E
21
In it( A6ureE form, the 6rimordiali(t vie- im6lie( a (en(e of ho6ele((ne((0 If Aone i(
invariabl+ and al-a+( a erb, a Uulu, or ChechenE and if Aethnic divi(ion( and ten(ion( are
Snatural,E
22
then little or nothing can be done to 6revent or re(olve ethnic conflict0
,nder(tanding ethnic hatred a( (omething that i( ingrained in ethnic grou6( and cannot be
changed i( a (im6lified vie- of a com6leB 6roblem0 It 6revent( tho(e -ho build 6eace to (ee
that ethnic animo(itie( eBi(t in combination -ith other factor( and that addre((ing each
dimen(ion of the 6roblem i( nece((ar+ to re(olve conflict0 Confining eB6lanation( of ethnic
conflict (olel+ to 6rimordial cau(e( al(o im6lie( a degree of ignorance and 6re2udice to-ard(
the (ocietie( affected b+ conflict0 '( '/bar de(cribe(, AIdea( and argument( about ethnicit+
are u(uall+ ba(ed on the a((um6tion that ethnic identit+ i( a characteri(tic of 6rimordial and
tribal (ocietie(R4nl+ "ackward (ocietie( cling to the 6a(t0E
2G
'll multi#ethnic (ocietie(, -hen (ub2ect to a convergence of a 6articular (et of factor(
and condition(, carr+ the 6otential of ethnic conflict0 ,nder the (tre(( of a ma2or (tructural
change that bring( a (en(e of chao( and uncertaint+, the con(ciou(ne(( of hi(toricall+ rooted
ethnic identitie( and emotion( are em6lo+ed a( vehicle( to ethnic violence for 6olitical
6ur6o(e(0 Vie-ing hi(toricall+ rooted ethnic animo(itie( a( the onl+ cau(e of conflict i(
in(ufficient0 '( Gangul+ argue(, A' 6ro6er under(tanding of the cau(e( of ethnic 6olitical
mobili9ation and conflict i( crucial, and -e mu(t move be+ond (im6li(tic di(cu((ion( of
Sancient hatred(N to (earch for more (+(tematic eB6lanation(0E
2"
'l(o, if -e vie- grou6(N
hi(torical and current realitie( a( a re(ult of 6re#determined or A6rimordialE factor(, then,
A5he road i( o6en to eBclu(ivi(t, homogeneou( nation( that in our ethnicall+ miBed, fluid,
changing -orld re#Fuire de(6erate 6olicie( of de6ortation and ethnic clean(ing to (ecure0E
2J
4n the other hand, a( un+ argue(, if -e vie- our realitie( a( (ociall+ con(tructed, the
6o((ibilitie( for coo6eration and 6eaceful cohabitation are greater0
2&
21
Jo(e6h 3oth(child, &thnopolitics: + 'onceptual 0ramework, 7Ne- .or/! Columbia ,niver(it+ )re((, 19$1:,
60 2"%0
22
<avid '0 *a/e and <onald 3othchild, AIthnic @ear( and Global Ingagement! 5he International 6read and
Kanagement of Ithnic Conflict,E Wor/ing )a6er, In(titute on Global Conflict and Coo6eration, Januar+ 199&0
2G
'hmed 0 '/bar, ANIthnic Clean(ingN! ' Keta6hor of 4ur 5imeT,E &thnic and ,acial *tudies, Vol0 1$, No0 1,
199J, 60 &, em6ha(i( added0
2"
3a2at Gangul+, AWh+ <o Ithnic Grou6( Kobili9eTE 7Cha6ter G: in 30 5ara(, ed0, 2ational Identities and
&thnic 3inorities in &astern &urope, elected 6a6er( from the @ifth World Congre(( of Central and Ia(t
Iuro6ean tudie(, War(ha-, 199J, 7Ne- .or/! t0 KartinN( )re((, Inc0, 199$:, 60 "90
2J
3onald Grigor un+, ACon(tructing )rimordiali(m! 4ld 8i(torie( for Ne- Nation(,E The 5ournal of 3odern
History, Vol0 %G, No0 ", <ecember 2001, 60 $9&0
2&
Ibid0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
1o2ana 1lago2evic ?$
In(!i!'!ional A--%oac"
In(titution( 6la+ an im6ortant role in regulating the level of the conflict 6otential of ethnicit+0 5he+
define inter#ethnic relation(hi6( b+ either facilitating or ob(tructing inter#grou6 coo6eration0 Cra-ford
note( that in(titution( Aboth con(train behavior and 6rovide incentive( for coo6eration and com6liance
in norm(, rule(, and 6rocedure( for allocation, 6artici6ation, re6re(entation, and accountabilit+0
'ccording to her, -hether or not identit+ 6olitic( turn( into violent conflict de6end( on the
functioning of (tate in(titution(! AWhere identit+ 6olitic( i( 6racticed, (tate( can channel it in 6eaceful
6olitical com6etition a( long a( the+ can ma/e credible commitment( to (ha6e and u6hold agreement(
made among culturall+ defined 6olitical actor(0 5he 6ro6onent( of the in(titutional a66roach -ould
argue, for eBam6le, that the nineteenth centur+ ten(ion( among the three ethnic grou6( in -it9erland
are no- managed b+ the current 6olitical (+(tem 7con(ociational democrac+: b+ in(titutionali9ing
ethnic 6lurali(m and giving the three grou6( eFuivalent 6o-er#(haring0 4n the other hand, a( Inloe
and Nagel argue, if the (tateN( admini(trative (tructure( and legal in(titution( di(tribute re(ource(
ba(ed on ethnicit+, thi( encourage( 6olitical mobili9ation along ethnic line(0 In (um, ACountrie( -ho(e
6olitical in(titution( 6olitici9e cultural CethnicD identit+ are more vulnerable to cultural CethnicD
conflict than countrie( -ho(e 6olitical in(titution( 6romote (ocial integration of diver(e cultural
grou6(0
Communi(t, colonial and democratic 6olitical arrangement( have variou( in(titutional effect(
on inter#ethnic relation( and thu( on conflict 6otential0 @or eBam6le, communi(m i( (ometime(
blamed for creating or reinforcing ethnic;national divi(ion( but (u66re((ing the eB6re((ion of ethnic
conflict(, and con(eFuentl+, for recent outbur(t( of ethnic violence in the 6o(t#communi(t region( of
the -orld follo-ing the (+(tem colla6(e0 In the -ord( of Georg 1runner, in the communi(t (+(tem(,
Anationalit+ Cethnicit+D conflict( -ere (u66re((ed, com6ul(oril+ canali9ed or even con(ciou(l+
in(trumentali9ed0 Colonial 6olitical (+(tem( u(ed the Adivide and ruleE (trateg+ to create and;or
(e6arate grou6( along ethnic line( in order to (trengthen the 6o-er of the colonial (+(tem0 4nce
decoloni9ation too/ 6lace, the ab(ence of old in(titutional mechani(m( of grou6 control allo-ed for
ethnic emotion( to (urface and
2%
1everl+ Cra-ford, A5he Cau(e( of Cultural Conflict! 'n In(titutional '66roachE in 1everl+ Cra-ford and
3onnie <0 *i6(chut9, ed(0, The 3yth of #&thnic 'onflict$, International and 'rea tudie( 3e(earch
erie(;Number 9$, 71er/ele+! ,niver(it+ of California, 199$:, 60 1%0
2$
1everl+ Cra-ford, A5he Cau(e( of Cultural Conflict! '((e((ing the IvidenceE in Ibid0, 60 J1%0
29
Ibid0, 60 J9%#$0
G0
C+nthia Inloe, A5he Gro-th of the tate and Ithnic Kobili9ation! 5he 'merican IB6erience,E &thnic and
,acial *tudies, ", '6ril 19$1, 660 12G#G&H Joane Nagel, A5he )olitical Con(truction of Ithnicit+E in 4l9a/ and
Nagel, ed(0, 'ompetitive &thnic ,elations, 71o(ton! 'cademic )re((, 19$&:, 660 9G#1120
G1
1everl+ Cra-ford, A5he Cau(e( of Cultural Conflict! '((e((ing the IvidenceE in 1everl+ Cra-ford and
3onnie <0 *i6(chut9, ed(0, The 3yth of &thnic 'onflict, International and 'rea tudie( 3e(earch erie(;Number
9$, 71er/ele+! ,niver(it+ of California, 199$:, 60 JJ&0
G2
Georg 1runner, 2ationality (ro"lems and 3inority 'onflicts in &astern &urope, 7GOter(loh! 1ertel(mann
@oundation )ubli(her(, 199&:, 60 920
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?9
ethnic intolerance to ta/e 6lace0 uch a (ituation, eB6loited b+ 6olitical entre6reneur(, lead( to
inter#ethnic com6etition and conflict0
<emocratic in(titution( are con(idered to 6romote inter#ethnic coo6eration and thu(
mitigate the conflict 6otential of ethnicit+0 'ccording to )ra9au(/a(, AIn a democratic
multinational (tate, (tabilit+ i( generall+ maintained b+ mean( of 6olitical bargaining and
com6romi(e bet-een ethnic (ubgrou6(0E
GG
<iBon (imilarl+ argue( that Ademocratic (tate(R
are better eFui66ed than other( -ith the mean( for diffu(ing conflict (ituation( at and earl+
(tage before the+ have an o66ortunit+ to e(calate to militar+ violence0E
G"
8o-ever, -hile
conflict ma+ not ha66en in or among e(tabli(hed democracie(, conflict often doe( ha66en in
democratizing (tate(0 In )ra9au(/a(N -ord(,
5he tran(ition from authoritariani(m to democrac+ in multinational (tate( mean( fir(t
of all the di(integration of the coercive (+(tem of chec/( and control(0 5hi( inevitabl+
lead( to ethnic flare#u6( a( ethnic communitie( begin to organi9e, to mobili9e their
member(, and to voice their grievance( and demand( u6on the (tate and each other0
GJ
@urthermore, introduction of the maority democracy rule in ethnicall+ divided (ocietie( in
the conteBt of a ma2or (tructural change 6romote( fear of domination and marginali9ation b+
other grou6(0 '( *i26hart argue(, AKa2orit+ rule (6ell( ma2orit+ dictator(hi6 and civil (trife
rather than democrac+RWhat (uch (ocietie( need i( a democratic regime that em6ha(i9e(
con(en(u( in(tead of o66o(ition that include( rather than eBclude(0E
G&
Poli!ical En!%e-%ene'%( A--%oac"
5he in(tabilit+ and uncertaint+ that re(ult from a ma2or (tructural change and the in(titutional
inabilit+ to regulate inter#ethnic relation( 6rovide( a A6erfectE condition in -hich 6olitical
entre6reneur( can mani6ulate ethnic emotion( in order to mobili9e grou6( for their o-n
6olitical 6ur6o(e(0 )olitician( eB6loit ethnic difference( b+ dra-ing u6on hi(torical memorie(
of grievance( and A-hi6 u6E hatred in order to gain or (trengthen their 6o-er0 5he d+namic
that develo6( bet-een 6olitical entre6reneur( and their follo-er( cau(e( an inter#ethnic
(ecurit+ dilemma0 '( tuart Paufman eB6lain(, Abelligerent leader( (to/e ma(( ho(tilit+H
ho(tile ma((e( (u66ort belligerent leader(, and both together threaten other grou6(, creating a
GG
'lgi( )ra9au(/a(, AIthnic Conflict( in the ConteBt of <emocrati9ing )olitical +(tem(,E Theory and *ociety,
vol0 20, 1991, 660 J$1#20
G"
William J0 <iBon, A<emocrac+ and the )eaceful ettlement of International Conflict,E +merican (olitical
*cience ,eview, Vol0 $$, No0 1, Karch 199", 60 1"0
GJ
'lgi( )ra9au(/a(, AIthnic Conflict( in the ConteBt of <emocrati9ing )olitical +(tem(,E Theory and *ociety,
vol0 20, 1991, 60 J9&0
G&
'rend *i26hart, (atterns of )emocracy: 1overnment 0orms and (erformance in Thirty-*i% 'ountries, 7Ne-
8aven! .ale ,niver(it+ )re((, 1999:, 60 GG0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
1o2ana 1lago2evic
?10
(ecurit+ dilemma -hich in turn encourage( even more ma(( ho(tilit+ and leader(hi6
belligerence0E
G%
)olitical entre6reneur( mani6ulate fear( and uncertaintie( of ethnic grou6( the+
re6re(ent and are able to Aa-a/en a con(ciou(ne(( of common grievance( and a de(ire to
rectif+ the(e -rong(0E
G$
5he+ hel6 create and reinforce ethnic 6olari9ation in the (ociet+0
@urthermore, AIthnic cleavage( allo- 6olitical entre6reneur( to mobili9e grievance( again(t
di(tribution( of benefit( that are 6erceived to be unfavorable to the grou60E
G9
3hetoric of fear,
blame, and hate are u(ed b+ 6olitical entre6reneur( a( a tool of divi(ion and control0
'ccording to Uu6anov and hi( co#author(, A)olitician( -ho(e goal i( that of eB6loiting and;or
6rovo/ing ethnic;national hatred are in control of media 6roduction -hich i( controlled and
directed b+ hate#6rone 6olitician( that 6rovo/e( national intolerance and hatred in the
6o6ulation leading to violence0E
"0
5herefore, the 6olitician(N mani6ulation of ethnic emotion(
lead( to 6articular action( M (uch a( intolerance0 '( 1runner argue(,
5he di(6o(ition to-ard( national CethnicD intolerance can be (trengthened b+ ne- Cor
oldD 6olitical leader(hi6 if the leader( do not have the nece((ar+ 6olitical (en(e of
re(6on(ibilit+ and do not re(i(t the tem6tation to avert attention from the acute (ocio#
economic 6roblem( b+ creating national conce6t( of enemie(0 5hi( i( the big chance
for the force( of the old regime( -ho either lo(t, or are afraid of lo(ing, their 6o-er0
"1
5he 6olitical entre6reneur( a66roach to eB6laining the cau(e( of ethnic conflict i( clo(el+
related to the in(titutional a66roach0 )olitician( -ho u(e ethnicit+ to their advantage can
(ucce((full+ o6erate onl+ -ithin tho(e in(titutional arrangement( that (u66ort;allo- (uch
6ractice or are unable to 6revent it0 5he (ucce(( of 6olitical entre6reneur( in mobili9ing ethnic
grou6( into violent conflict de6end( on the (trength of the eBi(ting (tate in(titution(! AIf (tate(
6rovide a legitimate arena for entre6reneur( to com6ete and if re(ource( available for
allocation are abundant, identit+ 6olitic(, li/e other /ind( of 6olitical com6etition, -ill be
legitimate and (table0E
"2
8o-ever, if (tate in(titution( fail, A6reviou( incentive( 6romoting
(ocial and 6olitical divi(ion( along cultural CethnicD line( are li/el+ to 6er(i(t and ethnic and
(ectarian 6olitical entre6reneur( ma+ have a (ta(h of re(ource( to di(tribute in eBchange for
G%
tuart J0 Paufman, A6iraling to Ithnic War! Ilite, Ka((e(, and Ko(co- in KoldovaN( Civil War,E
International *ecurity, Vol0 21, No0 2, @all 199&, 60 1090
G$
<avid '0 *a/e and <onald 3othchild, AIthnic @ear( and Global Ingagement! 5he International 6read and
Kanagement of Ithnic Conflict,E Wor/ing )a6er, In(titute on Global Conflict and Coo6eration, Januar+ 199&0
G9
Ibid0
"0
Jo(i6 Uu6anov, et0 'l, A' 1rea/do-n of the Civil 4rder! 5he 1al/an 1loodbath,E International 5ournal of
(olitics, 'ulture and *ociety, Vol0 9, No0 G, 199&, 660 "1G#1"0
"1
Georg 1runner, 2ationality (ro"lems and 3inority 'onflicts in &astern &urope, 7GOter(loh! 1ertel(mann
@oundation )ubli(her(, 199&:, 60 920
"2
1everl+ Cra-ford, A5he Cau(e( of Cultural Conflict! '((e((ing the IvidenceE in 1everl+ Cra-ford and 3onnie
<0 *i6(chut9, ed(0, The 3yth of &thnic 'onflict, International and 'rea tudie( 3e(earch erie(;Number 9$,
71er/ele+! ,niver(it+ of California, 199$:, 60 JJ&0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict ?11
(u66ort0 Korri( (imilarl+ illu(trate( the connection bet-een 6olitical leader(hi6 and
in(titution(0 'ccording to her, the t-o are Athe filter through -hich all other cau(e( of conflict
have to 6a((0 he al(o note( that in(titution( can fuel grievance( through 6olitical
ff E"J
eBclu(ion or ineicienc+0
Co&-e!i!ion ove% Re(o'%ce( A--%oac"
)olitical mobili9ation of ethnic identitie( re(ult( in ethnic intolerance and com6etition over
re(ource( and right( # -hich, if unre(olved, can lead to a violent conflict0 When re(ource( are
(carce, it i( ea(ier for 6olitical entre6reneur( to ca6itali9e on the conflict 6otential of ethnicit+0
'( de(cribed b+ 4rgani9ation for Iconomic Coo6eration and <evelo6ment 74IC<: and
,nited tate( 'genc+ for International <evelo6ment 7,'I<:, A5he(e grou6( are all the
more li/el+ to be vulnerable to (uch maneuvering -hen the+ find them(elve( in (ituation(
characteri9ed b+ a lac/ of o66ortunitie(0 When (cholar( di(cu(( com6etition over re(ource(,
the+ often refer to the economic com6etition over re(ource(0 5he argument i( that! under
difficult economic condition(, high unem6lo+ment and 6oor 6ro(6ect( for the future, 6eo6le
feel victimi9ed and blame their mi(fortune on other ethnic grou67(:0 5hi( lead( to inter#ethnic
com6etition0 In thi( article, I eB6and the conce6t of re(ource( to include not onl+ economic,
but al(o 6olitical, (ocial, and cultural Agood(E that not onl+ include material (ecurit+ but al(o
encom6a(( individual and grou6 right(0 '( *a/e and 3othchild note,
)ro6ert+ right(, 2ob(, (cholar(hi6(, educational admi((ion(, language right(,
government contract(, and develo6ment allocation( all confer 6articular benefit( on
individual( and grou6(0 Whether finite in (u66l+ or not, all (uch re(ource( are (carce
and, thu(, ob2ect( of com6etition and occa(ionall+ (truggle bet-een individual( and,
"%
-hen organi9ed, grou6(0
In hi( anal+(i( of 6eace accord( and ethnic conflict(, de Varenne( 7200G: found that in almo(t
all conflict(, ethnic grou6(N demand( focu(ed on (ecuring ba(ic right( for their grou60 @or
eBam6le, the+ demanded more effective 6olitical 6artici6ation, a fairer (hare and di(tribution
of education, em6lo+ment o66ortunitie(, etc0 '( William( eB6lain(,
5he li/elihood of conflict i( higher -hen di(agreement and o66o(ition concern
collective good(, e0g0 language right(, religiou( belief( and (+mbol(, civil and 6olitical
"G
Ibid0
""
haron Korri(, A'((e((ing Conflict Vulnerabilit+,E )emocracy )ialogue, 5echnical Note( @rom ,'I<
4ffice of <emocrac+ and Governance, <ecember 2001, 60 G0
"J
Ibid0
"&
4IC<#,'I<,A*and, Conflict and <evelo6ment! What 3ole of <onor(T,E ummar+, 4IC<#,'I<
Informal IB6ert(N eminar, 19 and 20 June 200G, 60 2
"%
<avid '0 *a/e and <onald 3othchild, AIthnic @ear( and Global Ingagement! 5he International 6read and
Kanagement of Ithnic Conflict,E Wor/ing )a6er, In(titute on Global Conflict and Coo6eration, Januar+ 199&0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
1o2ana 1lago2evic
?12
right( and 6rivilege(, regional#ethnic 6o-er, or regional#ethnic 6arit+ in the econom+0
5he more nearl+ indivi(ible the good( and the le(( the acce(( of the Sdi(advantaged,N
the greater i( the re(entment and the more li/el+ i( ethnic mobili9ation, follo-ed b+
overt conflict0
"$
In the literature, there are variou( notion( on -hat mechani(m( ma+ facilitate ethnic
com6etition0 5he(e mechani(m( include economic and 6olitical 6roce((e( (uch a(! raciall+
(6lit labor mar/et(,
"9
em6lo+ment (egregation,
J0
the cultural divi(ion of labor,
J1
the
re6lacement of local control -ith more inclu(ive domain( of control and (overeignt+,
J2
and
eB6an(ion of (tate (+(tem(0
JG
'ccording to P6o(o-a and Jen/in(, all of the(e develo6ment(
increa(e the li/elihood of ethnic com6etition over re(ource(0
J"
In the 6a(t t-o decade(, the
conce6t of Ainternal coloniali(mE ha( been u(ed eBten(ivel+ to account for economic and
6olitical difference( along ethnic line(0
JJ
'ccording to the internal colon+ theor+, -hen a
grou6 e(tabli(he( it( dominance -ithin the (ociet+, it i( able to maintain Aa cultural divi(ion
of labor! a (+(tem of (tratification -here ob2ective cultural di(tinction( are (u6erim6o(ed
u6on cla(( line(0E
J&
In the conteBt of a ma2or (tructural change -ithin an ethnicall+ diver(e
(ociet+, 6olitical entre6reneur( attribute their ethnic grou6N( have#not( to the eB6loitation and
denial of acce(( to re(ource( and right( b+ the other Agrou6(0E 'dvantaged grou6(, on the
other hand, begin to (ee the Aother(E a( tho(e -ho -ill ta/e a-a+ their Ahave(E (hould the+
gain a 6o(ition of 6o-er -ithin the (ociet+0 In(titutional factor( fuel inter#ethnic com6etition
b+ facilitating 6olitic( of eBclu(ion0
When ethnic grou6( find them(elve( victimi9ed and;or threatened b+ other grou6(,
identification in term( of their ethnicit+ become( 6articularl+ im6ortant, becau(e their ethnic
grou6 i( (een a( the (ource of 6rotection from other grou6( and a 6o((ible 6rovider of a
(ecure environment0 Inter#ethnic com6etition can lead to Athe (ilencing of divergent o6inion(,
"$
30 K0 William(, A5he ociolog+ of Ithnic Conflict(! Com6arative International )er(6ective(,E +nnual ,eview
of *ociology, No0 20, 199", 60 JJ0
"9
Idna 1onacich, A' 5heor+ of Ithnic 'ntagoni(m! 5he 6lit *abor Kar/et,E +merican *ociological ,eview,
vol0 G$, 19%2, 660 J"%#J90
J0
Idna 1onacich and J0 Kodell, The &conomic Basis of &thnic *olidarity: *mall Business in the 5apanese
+merican 'ommunity, 71er/ele+ and *o( 'ngele(! ,niver(it+ of California )re((, 19$0:0
J1
Kichael 8echter, AGrou6 @ormation and the Cultural <ivi(ion of *abor,E +merican 5ournal of *ociology, vol0
$", no0 2, 19%$, 660 29G#G1$0
J2
Kichael 50 8annan, A5he <+namic( of Ithnic 1oundarie( in Kodern tate(,E in J0 W0 Ke+er and Kichael 50
8annan 7ed(:, 2ational )evelopment and the 7orld *ystem, 7Chicago! ,niver(it+ of Chicago )re((, 19%9:, 660
2JG#%J0
JG
4l9a/, u(an and Joane Nagel, ed(0, 'ompetitive &thnic ,elations, 74rlando and 1o(ton 'cademic )re((,
19$&:, 660 9G#1120
J"
'0 J0 P6o(o-a and J0C0 Jen/in(, A5he tructural ource( of Kilitar+ Cou6( in )o(tcolonial 'frica, 19J%#
19$",E +merican 5ournal of *ociology, Vol0 99, No0 1, 199G, 660 12&#&G0
JJ
K0 J0 .inger, AIthnicit+,E +nnual ,eview of *ociology, Vol0 11, 19$J, 60 1&J0
J&
Kichael 8echter, Internal 'olonialism: The 'eltic 0ringe in British 2ational )evelopment, 89:;-89;;,
71er/ele+! ,niver(it+ of California )re((, 19%%:, 60 G00
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?1G
increa(e( in adherence to grou6 (+mbol(, and intolerance for out#grou6( and di((enter(0E
J%
In
the ab(ence of an intervention, violent ethnic conflict i( the final outcome0
Ca(e S!'*4: Bo(nia an* He%6egovina
Introduction
In thi( (ection of the article, I -ill a66l+ the above di(cu((ed frame-or/ for under(tanding
ethnic conflict to the ca(e of 1o(nia and 8er9egovina0 1o(nia i( a 6o(t#communi(t countr+,
formerl+ one of the (iB con(tituent re6ublic( of former .ugo(lavia0 'ccording to a 1991
cen(u(, 1%0G 6er cent of 1o(nian 6o6ulation identified a( Croat(, "G0% 6er cent a( Ku(lim(,
G10" 6er cent a( erb(, and %0& 6er cent a( .ugo(lav and other(0
J$
)rior to the brea/out of
ethnic -ar in 1o(nia, the countr+ -a( con(idered a (+mbol of interethnic coo6eration, a( the
grou6( -ere able to Aget alongE and coeBi(t 6eacefull+0 5he relation( among the three ethnic
grou6( in 1o(nia had begun to deteriorate due to both a revival of the hi(torical memorie( of
grievance( 76articularl+ from the 6eriod of World War II: and due to a conteBt of economic,
6olitical, and (ocial uncertaint+0 '( the Cold War came to an end and communi(m colla6(ed,
1o(nia had begun it( uncertain tran(ition from a communi(t regime to a democrac+ and free
mar/et econom+0 5he fir(t multi#6art+ election( (ince the World War II -ere held in
November and <ecember 19900 5he election re(ulted in the victor+ of three leading
nationali(t 6artie(, ending the mono6ol+ of the communi(t 6art+0 5he -ar among the three
ethnic grou6( in 1o(nia bro/e out (hortl+ after the countr+ declared it( inde6endence in
Karch of 19920 'bout 2J0,000 6eo6le -ere /illed in the 1o(nian -ar, and a half of the
countr+N( (urviving 6o6ulation 7about 2 million: -a( di(6laced internall+ and abroad0
J9
5he colla6(e of communi(m in former .ugo(lavia and the en(uing 6roce(( of
democrati9ation re6re(ent the ma2or (tructural change that influenced the conteBt for
develo6ment of ethnic conflict in 1o(nia0 )olitical in(titution( lo(t their abilit+ to regulate
inter#ethnic relation( and /ee6 the eB6re((ion of ethnic emotion( in chec/0 )olitical
entre6reneur( mani6ulated the conflict 6otential of ethnicit+ for their o-n 6olitical gain0
*ocal, national and international 6olitical actor( (tood b+ a( inter#ethnic intolerance and
com6etition over re(ource( and right( inten(ified and e(calated into a violent ethnic conflict0
J%
u(an 4l9a/ and Ili9abeth We(t, AIthnic Conflict and the 3i(e and @all of Ithnic Ne-(6a6er(,E +merican
*ociological ,eview, Vol0 J&, 1991, 660 "J$#%"0
J$
5he Iconomi(t Intelligence ,nit, 'ountry (rofile: Bosnia-Herzegovina, 'roatia, *lovenia, 7*ondon! 5he
Iconomi(t Intelligence ,nit, 199J#9&:, 60G0
J9
'drian Parantn+c/+, et al0, ed(0, 2ations in Transit 899<: 'ivil *ociety, )emocracy, and 3arkets in &ast
'entral &urope and the 2ewly Independent *tates, 7Ne- 1run(-ic/! 5ran(action )ubli(her(, @reedom 8ou(e,
Inc0, 1999:, 6012$
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
1o2ana 1lago2evic
?1"
Hatred from the Past
' common eB6lanation of ethnic conflict( in former .ugo(lavia i( that the Aancient hatred(E
among the three ethnic grou6( are to blame for the violence0 '( Uu6anov and hi( co#author(
note, A5he crude ver(ion of thi( theor+ eB6lain( the ongoing -ar( in the former .ugo(lavia a(
a normal -a+ of re(olving conflict( among the S-ildN 1al/an tribe(0E
&0
Kan+ 6rominent
international actor( al(o eB6re((ed their belief in the 6rimordial eB6lanation of ethnic conflict
in 1o(nia;former .ugo(lavia0 In a (tatement made on Karch 2$, 199G, the ecretar+ of tate,
Warren Chri(to6her, (aid, A5he hatred bet-een all three grou6(, the 1o(nian( and the erb(
and the Croat(, i( almo(t unbelievable0 ItN( almo(t terrif+ing, and itN( centurie( old0E
&1
imilarl+, the 1riti(h @oreign ecretar+, <ougla(( 8urd, told the '((ociated )re(( on Jul+ 20,
1992 that, A4ne of the thing( one learn( from actuall+ being here i( that the fear( and hatred(
-hich have been unlea(hed are ab(olutel+ formidable0E
&2
In her A*etter from Wa(hington,E
Ili9abeth <re- (tated that, Athe di(a66earance of the Iron Curtain allo-ed long#(u66re((ed M
but no le(( bitter M ethnic hatred( to brea/ out once more0E
&G
'nother anal+(t of the conflict(
in former .ugo(lavia directl+ labeled the 6eo6le of the region a( emotion#driven, irrational
human being(, im6licitl+ inferior to the Acivili9edE We(t!
It i( all too ea(+ for We(tern Iuro6ean( or 'merican( to fall into the tra6 of eB6ecting
(u6erficiall+ (imilar, Iuro6ean, outh lav( to thin/ and react in (imilar fa(hion to
them(elve(0 5he lavic C(icD nationalitie( of former .ugo(lavia are tribal (ocietie(,
governed more b+ their emotion( than b+ their intellect(0 Koreover, the(e emotion(
are 6rimitive, atavi(tic, and not tho(e (ha6ed b+ late t-entieth centur+ liberal value(0
&"
While it i( true that ethnic emotion( in 1o(nia -ere rooted in hi(torical memorie( of
grievance(, the hatred did not eBi(t con(i(tentl+ over Acenturie(0E Kemorie( of 6a(t in2u(tice(
committed b+ the Aother(E -ere revived b+ o66ortuni(t 6olitician( to evo/e emotion( of fear,
re(entment, rage, and hate0 In(titutional arrangement( facilitated their divi(ive effort(0 '(
n+der note(, AContrar+ to -hat (ome -ould have u( believe, erb( and Croat( fought each
other ver+ little before thi( centur+R0Contem6orar+ ethnic violence (tem( a( much from
deliberate government 6olicie( a( from traditional communal antagoni(m(0E
&J
5he hatred
bet-een erb( and Croat( did not eBi(t before 191$, -hen the .ugo(lav (tate -a( created,
and before the ma((acre( of World War II, there -ere no ma2or, violent conflict( bet-een the
&0
Jo(i6 Uu6anov, et al0, A' 1rea/do-n of the Civil 4rder! 5he 1al/an 1loodbath,E International 5ournal of
(olitics, 'ulture and *ociety, Vol0 9, No0 G, 199&, 60 "0J
&1
Quoted in Ibid0
&2
3and+ 8od(on, et al0, ANational 5olerance in the @ormer .ugo(lavia,E The +merican 5ournal of *ociology,
Vol0 99, No0 &, Ka+ 199", 60 1JGJ0
&G
Ili9abeth <re-, A*etter from Wa(hington,E 2ew 4orker, No0 &$, Jul+ 2, 1992, 60 %00
&"
C0 J0 <ic/, Aerbian 3e(6on(e( to Intervention in 1o(nia#8ercegovina,E British +rmy ,eview, No0 102, <ec0
1992, 660 1$#2J0
&J
Jac/ n+der, ANationali(m and the Cri(i( of the )o(t#oviet tate,E *urvival, Vol0 GJ, No0 1, 6ring 199G, 660
J#2&0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?1J
t-o grou6(0
&&
<uring the World War II, Croatia -a( a Na9i 6rotectorate and -a( given the
6o((e((ion of virtuall+ entire 1o(nia and 8er9egovina0 ome Ku(lim( collaborated -ith
CroatiaN( ,(ta(ha fa(ci(t regime, although ma2orit+ did not0 8undred( of thou(and( of erb(
-ere murdered b+ the A,(ta(ha,E -hile the erbian nationali(t AChetni/E force( ma((acred
ten( of thou(and( of Ku(lim(0
&%
5he(e ma((acre( are an eBam6le of a hi(torical memor+ M a
(ource of grievance, hate, re(entment, and fear0 't the (ame time, the three ethnic grou6(
fought together again(t Na9i( in the communi(t, (artizani force(0 In the 6a(t, there are
eBam6le( of both M ethnic grou6( -or/ing together and turning again(t each other0 In the ca(e
of the ethnic conflict in 1o(nia, the 6rimordial eB6lanation 6oint( to ethnic emotion(
(temming from hi(torical memorie( of grievance(0 8o-ever, a( 8od(on and hi( co#author(
note, A'rgument( ba(ed on 6rimordial hatred( (hould not be acce6ted -ithout an eBamination
of the 6o((ible (tructural under6inning( of current animo(itie(0E
&$
5he 6re(ence of dee6, hi(toricall+ rooted ethnic animo(itie( alone i( not (ufficient to
create conflict, a( other factor( mu(t be involved a( -ell for ethnic conflict to re(ult0
In(titutional 76olitical (+(tem: theor+ hel6( eB6lain ho-, follo-ing the colla6(e of
communi(m, the 6olitical in(titution( in 1o(nia -ere no longer able to regulate inter#ethnic
relation( and control ethnic animo(itie(, thu( facilitating 6olitical entre6reneur(N effort( to
mani6ulate the grou6( to (erve their o-n intere(t(0
The Collapse of Communism and Transition to Democracy
While different grou6( in former .ugo(lavia -ere allo-ed to eB6re(( (ome ba(ic inter#grou6
di(tinction( during the communi(t rule, Aan+ eB6re((ion of nationali(m, 6articularl+
religiou(l+#ba(ed, -a( ruthle((l+ (u66re((ed! thro-ing national hatred( into -hat Ki(ha
Glenn+ call( Shi(tor+N( dee6 free9e0NE
&9
When the communi(t (+(tem colla6(ed, the once
Afro9enE Ahatred(,E -ere violentl+ unlea(hed0 '( 9a+na argue(, A5he ten(ion( came out into
the o6en in central Iuro6e and the 1al/an( becau(e of the brea/do-n of the ruling (+(tem in
the region and the ma((ive, region-ide regime change0E
%0
'ccording to 1uga2(/i,
ACommuni(t rule not onl+ fro9e or di(figured man+ of the unre(olved nationalit+ Fue(tion(,
but it al(o created additional grievance( and ne- (ource( of friction in variou( 6art( of the
&&
Jo(i6 Uu6anov et al0, A' 1rea/do-n of the Civil 4rder! 5he 1al/an 1loodbath,E International 5ournal of
(olitics, 'ulture and *ociety, Vol0 9, No0 G, 199&, 60 "0&0
&%
Janu(9 1uga2(/i, &thnic (olitics in &astern &urope: + 1uide to 2ationality (olicies, 6rganizations, and
(arties, 5he Center for trategic and International tudie(, 7'rmon/! K0I0 har6e, 199":, 60 &0
&$
3and+ 8od(on, et0 al0, ANational 5olerance in the @ormer .ugo(lavia,E The +merican 5ournal of *ociology,
Vol0 99, No0 &, Ka+ 199", 60 1JGJ0
&9
)aul 3oe, &thnic /iolence and the *ocietal *ecurity )ilemma, 7Ne- .or/! 3outledge, 200J:, 60 $&0
%0
5homa( 0 9a+na0 &thnic 'onflict in 'entral &urope and the Balkans: + 0ramework for ..*. (olicy
6ptions, 7anta Konica! 3and, 199":, 60 $0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
1o2ana 1lago2evic
?1&
region0E
%1
4ne of the -a+( in -hich the Communi(t regime attem6ted to di(courage
manife(tation( of ethnic nationali(m( -a( b+ 6romoting 6eo6leN( allegiance to an overarching
identit+ of (ociali(t 4ugoslavism0 8o-ever, a( 3oe note(, the(e effort( ma+ have di(tracted
from but not eliminated grou6 nationali(m( 7e0g0 Aerbi(mE and ACroati(mE:0
%2
.ugo(lav
federation -a( con(tructed along national;ethnic line(0 While mo(t grou6( could identif+ -ith
one of the federal re6ublic( a( their AhomelandE 7for eBam6le, Croat( -ith Croatia, erb( -ith
erbia, etc0:, Ku(lim(, although the+ received the (tatu( of a AnationE 7national grou6: in
19&G,
%G
had an Aambiguou(E relation(hi6 -ith the territor+ of the re6ublic of 1o(nia0
%"
5he
Fue(t of Ku(lim( in 1o(nia for 1o(nian inde6endence in the 6o(t#communi(t, earl+ 1990(
can be lin/ed to the unre(olved i((ue( of their (tatu( a( a grou6 during Communi(m0 Iven
before the colla6(e of communi(m there -ere Aeffort( b+ (ome Ku(lim intellectual( to revive
the notion of S1o(niani(mN in 6lace of SKu(limne((N a( a ba(i( for defining the Ku(limN(
claim to 6o-er in the re6ublic0E
%J
'fter the colla6(e of communi(m, 1o(nia and the re(t of the former re6ublic( of
.ugo(lavia found them(elve( in the 6roce(( of democratization. @or the believer( in
democrac+ and democratic 6eace, the a((um6tion i( that a democratic 6olitical (+(tem -ould
lead to 6eace among and -ithin nation(0 In hi( tate of the ,nion 'ddre(( in 199", )re(ident
1ill Clinton argued that democrati9ation -ould be an antidote to -ar and civil (trife0
%&
8o-ever, a( n+der 6oint( out, AWhile the -orld -ould undoubtedl+ be more 6eaceful if all
(tate( became mature democracie(, ClintonN( conventional -i(dom failed to antici6ate the
danger( of getting from here to there0E
%%
'( *uc 3e+chler 6ut( it, Athe devil i( in the
tran(ition0E
%$
'ccording to n+der, the tran(ition to democrac+ (eem( to have facilitated the
ethnic conflict0 8e argue( that, Aa countr+N( fir(t (te6( to-ard democrac+ (6ur the
develo6ment of nationali(m and heighten the ri(/ of international -ar and internal ethnic
conflictE
%9
Ki(ha Glenn+ argue( that, ANo Ia(t Iuro6ean countr+ ha( demon(trated Fuite (o
clearl+ a( the former .ugo(lavia the danger( -hich -ere inherent but largel+ unrecogni9ed in
the 6roce(( of democrati9ation0E
$0
In ethnicall+ 6olari9ed (ocietie(, -here ethno#nationali(m
%1
Janu(9 1uga2(/i, &thnic (olitics in &astern &urope: + 1uide to 2ationality (olicies, 6rganizations, and
(arties, 5he Center for trategic and International tudie(, 7'rmon/! K0I0 har6e, 199":, 60 Bi0
%2
)aul 3oe, &thnic /iolence and the *ocietal *ecurity )ilemma, 7Ne- .or/! 3outledge, 200J:, 60 $&0
%G
teven *0 1urg and )aul 0 hou6, The 7ar in Bosnia-Herzegovina: &thnic 'onflict and International
Intervention, 7'rmon/! K0I0 har6e, 1999:, 60 "10
%"
Ibid0, 60 "G0
%J
Ibid0, 60 ""0
%&
1ill Clinton, tate of the ,nion 'ddre(( 199", A5ran(cri6t of ClintonN( 'ddre((,E 2ew 4ork Times, Januar+
2&, 199", 60 '1%0
%%
Jac/ n+der, 0rom /oting to /iolence: )emocratization and 2ationalist 'onflict, 7Ne- .or/! W0W0 Norton
V Com6an+, Inc0, 2000:, 60 1J0
%$
*uc 3e+chler, )emocratic (eace-Building and 'onflict (revention: The )evil is in Transition, =*euven!
*euven ,niver(it+ )re((, Center for )eace 3e(earch and trategic tudie( 7C)3:, 1999:0
%9
Jac/ n+der, 0rom /oting to /iolence: )emocratization and 2ationalist 'onflict, 7Ne- .or/! W0W0 Norton
V Com6an+, Inc0, 2000:, 60 GJ20
$0
Ki(ha Glenn+, The 0all of 4ugoslavia: The Third Balkan 7ar, 7*ondon! )enguin 1oo/(, 1992:, 60 2GJ0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?1%
and ethnification 6roce((e( are 6re(ent, in(tituting a ma2oritarian democrac+ re(ult( in further
6olari9ation and com6etition to (ecure ethnic grou6 right( and acce(( to re(ource(0 In fear of
or reaction to being target( of ethnic intolerance, ethnic grou6( inten(if+ the 6roce(( of
ethnification in order to 6revent the other grou67(: from gaining ma2orit+ 6o-er in the (ociet+
through democratic 6roce((e(0 '( Ve2voda note(, AKa2oritarian democrac+ ha( 6roved fatal in
the ca(e of 1o(nia and 8er9egovina0E
$1
1efore the -ar bro/e out, the 1o(nian 6olitical (+(tem con(i(ted of a three#-a+
6o-er#(haring relation(hi6 M a AScommuni(t con(ociationali(mN of (ort(, -ith no grou6
having a ma2orit+0E
$2
'fter the colla6(e of communi(m, 1o(niaN( fir(t 6olitical (te6 -a( to
build a democratic, ma2orit+#rule 6olitical model0 ' con(ociational democratic model,
Ve2voda argue(, -ould have been a better 6olitical (olution0
$G
In the fir(t multi#6art+ election(
held in 1o(nia in 4ctober and November 1990, three Anationali(tE 6artie(, each re6re(enting
one ethnic grou6, -on the election(0 5heir coming into 6o-er (et off a com6etitive 6roce(( of
6olitical, ethnic entre6reneur(hi6, di(gui(ed b+ each 6art+N( claim( to re6re(ent their grou6N(
be(t intere(t in (ha6ing the future of 1o(nia0 5he 1o(nian erb leader( (trove to /ee6 1o(nia
a( a 6art of the remainder of the former .ugo(lavia 7and thu( connected to erbia:, -hile
1o(nian Ku(lim( and Croat( (u66orted 1o(niaN( (e6aration from .ugo(lavia0 In a referendum
held in Karch 1992, &G0" 6er cent of eligible voter( ca(t their vote regarding 1o(niaN(
inde6endence0 erbian leader( encouraged 1o(nian erb( to bo+cott the referendum and
declared the 6roce(( illegal0 4f tho(e -ho 6artici6ated, 990% 6er cent of re(6ondent(
(u66orted a (overeign and inde6endent 1o(nia and 8er9egovina0 In '6ril 1992, 1o(nia -a(
recogni9ed internationall+ a( an inde6endent (tate0 5he armed conflict -a( launched b+ the
1o(nian erb leader( in Ka+ 19920
$"
No ethnic grou6 tru(ted the motive( of the other or
-anted to ri(/ having the acce(( to re(ource( and right( controlled b+ another grou60 It -a(
the 6olitical entre6reneur( -ho a((ured each ethnic grou6 that a (cenario in -hich the+ did
not hold 6o-er -ould 6rove di(a(trou(0 '( Glenn+ argue(,
1o(nia could onl+ have been (aved if a 6olitical 6art+ -hich (6anned the three
communitie( had emerged a( the mo(t 6o-erful after the colla6(e of communi(t
6o-er0 5he 6overt+ of the 6lurali(t (+(tem ba(ed on the three national 6artie( -a(
demon(trated b+ the (tructure( -hich it (6a-ned0 In it( eighteen#month#long
eBi(tence, the 1o(nian 6arliament failed to 6a(( a (ingle la- M in(tead it i((ued a
$1
Ivan Ve2voda, A1+ Wa+ of Conclu(ion! 5o 'void the IBtreme( of ufferingE 7Cha6ter 1": in <avid '0 <+/er
and Ivan Ve2voda, ed(0, 4ugoslavia and +fter: + *tudy in 0ragmentation, )espair and ,e"irth, 7*ondon!
'ddi(on We(le+ *ongman, 199&:, 60 2JJ0
$2
Ibid0, 60 2JG0
$G
Ibid0, 60 2JJ0
$"
Janu(9 1uga2(/i, &thnic (olitics in &astern &urope: + 1uide to 2ationality (olicies, 6rganizations, and
(arties, 5he Center for trategic and International tudie(, 7'rmon/! K0I0 har6e, 199":, 66 GG#J0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
1o2ana 1lago2evic
?1$
(tring of declaration( and memoranda -hich -ere invariabl+ conte(ted b+ one of the
three national grou6(0
$J
Manipulation by Nationalist Leaders
'( the former .ugo(lavia (uffered a ma2or (tructural change and found it(elf on a dangerou(
6olitical cro((road(, nationali(t intellectual( and leader( u(ed the -ea6on( of nationali(t
rhetoric to inten(if+ ethnic divi(ion( and ethnic intolerance0 'ccording to Ve2voda, a
con(en(u( (tarted to emerge among the nationali(t leader( in 1o(nia to (ei9e the Ao66ortunit+
6re(ented b+ the fall of the 1erlin Wall and the end of communi(m to S(ort outN interethnic
grievance(0 5ho(e -ho o66o(ed the 6roce((e( of ethnic homogeni9ation and 6o((ible
e(calation of conflict -ere marginali9ed0E
$&
5hu(, the economic, 6olitical and (ocial cri(i(
cau(ed a readil+ Amobili9ableE emotional re(6on(e0 Nationali(t leader( u(ed the rhetoric of
Au(E 7our ethnic;national grou6: being eB6loited b+ AthemE 7other ethnic;national grou6(:0
AIver+bod+ had a grudge again(t .ugo(lavia and again(t each other0E
$%
5he mani6ulation of
emotion( culminated in ethnic violence -hich, a( 1ringa argue(, A-a( the eB6re((ion of a
6oliticall+ organi9ed attem6t to radicall+ redefining categorie( of belonging0E
$$
Iver+bod+
-a( afraid about the uncertain fate of 1o(nia, e(6eciall+ after the ne-( of a meeting bet-een
)re(ident( 5ud2man 7of Croatia: and Kilo(evic 7of erbia: in Karch 1991, re6ortedl+
focu(ing on their 6lan( for the 6artition of the countr+0
$9
)olitical entre6reneur( u(ed the 6rimordiali(t argument to 2u(tif+ their o-n aim(0 @or
eBam6le, 3adovan Parad9ic, a 1o(nian erb leader during the -ar, (aid to the 'merican
'mba((ador to .ugo(lavia, A.ou have to under(tand erb(, Kr0 Uimmerman0 5he+ have been
betra+ed for centurie(0 5oda+ the+ cannot live -ith other nation(0 5he+ mu(t have their o-n
(e6arate eBi(tence0E
90
'( Uimmermann note(, 6olitical entre6reneur(, 6articularl+ the u(e of
the media b+ 6olitician( to incite ethnic hatred in former .ugo(lavia 6la+ed an im6ortant role
in cau(ing the conflict!
5he brea/u6 of .ugo(lavia i( a cla((ic eBam6le of nationali(m from the to6#do-n and
mani6ulated nationali(m in a region -here 6eace ha( hi(toricall+ 6revailed more than
$J
K0 Glenn+, The 0all of 4ugoslavia: The Third Balkan 7ar, 7*ondon! )enguin 1oo/(, 1992:, 60 1"$0
$&
Ivan Ve2voda, A1+ Wa+ of Conclu(ion! 5o 'void the IBtreme( of ufferingE 7Cha6ter 1": in <avid '0 <+/er
and Ivan Ve2voda, ed(0, 4ugoslavia and +fter: + *tudy in 0ragmentation, )espair and ,e"irth, 7*ondon!
'ddi(on We(le+ *ongman, 199&:, 60 2JJ0
$%
Ibid0
$$
5one 1ringa, A'verted Ga9e! Genocide in 1o(nia#8er9egovina, 1992#199J,E in 'leBander *aban 8inton, ed0,
+nnihilating )ifference: The +nthropology of 1enocide, 71er/ele+! ,niver(it+ of California )re((, 2002:, 60
19"0
$9
Ivan Ve2voda, A1+ Wa+ of Conclu(ion! 5o 'void the IBtreme( of ufferingE 7Cha6ter 1": in <avid '0 <+/er
and Ivan Ve2voda, ed(0, 4ugoslavia and +fter: + *tudy in 0ragmentation, )espair and ,e"irth, 7*ondon!
'ddi(on We(le+ *ongman, 199&:, 60 2J"0
90
Quoted in W0 Uimmermann, W0, AKemoir( of the *a(t 'merican 'mba((ador to .ugo(lavia,E 0oreign
+ffairs, Vol0 %", No0 2, 199J, 60 200
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?19
-ar and in -hich a Fuarter of the 6o6ulation -ere in miBed marriage(0 5he
mani6ulator( condoned and even 6rovo/ed local ethnic violence in order to engender
animo(itie( that could then be magnified b+ the 6re((, leading to further violence0
91
In their mobili9ation of ethnicit+, the 6olitical entre6reneur( -ere al(o eBclu(ionar+ to-ard
member( of their o-n grou6 -ho did not follo- the eBtremi(t, ethno#nationali(t a66roach0
Koderate 6olitician( -ho did not demoni9e the other or did not full+ identif+ -ith their o-n
grou6N( 6olitic( al(o became target( of eBclu(ion0 @or eBam6le, in 1992, the leader of the
Croatian <emocratic ,nion in 1o(nia -a( di(mi((ed on the ground( that he -a( Atoo much
1o(nian, too little Croat0E
92
)olitical entre6reneur(N mani6ulation of ethnic emotion( -a( facilitated b+ the overall
condition( created b+ the 6roce((e( of change after the colla6(e of communi(m0 '(
Wood-ard note(, the argument that the -ar in 1o(nia 7former .ugo(lavia: -a( (olel+ the
6lan of lobodan Kilo(evic Aignore( the condition( that ma/e (uch leader( 6o((ible and
6o6ular and therefore al(o ignore( the 6olicie( nece((ar+ to end their rule0E
9G
We have to
con(ider the in(titutional factor( a( -ell0 'ccording to Uu6anov and hi( co#author(,
It -a( a 6revailing authoritarian 6olitical culture in all region( of former .ugo(lavia
that enabled nationali(t leader( to mono6oli9e the media and to increa(e the level of
intolerance regardle(( of 6reviou(l+ eBi(ting tolerance0 'n alread+ eBi(ting
authoritarian 6olitical culture in interaction -ith the mono6oli9ation of media b+
nationali(t 6olitical leader( combined to cancel out 6reviou(l+ high level( of tolerance
and to 6roduce violence among 6o6ulation( -here it had not 6reviou(l+ eBi(ted0
9"
Competition over Economic and Political Resources
5he com6etition over re(ource( argument 6rovide( the final A6ieceE of eB6lanation for the
violent ethnic conflict in 1o(nia0 5he fall of communi(m and the tran(ition to democrac+ and
a free econom+ -a( mar/ed b+ an economic cri(i( and a ri(ing rate of unem6lo+ment0 '(
Wood-ard 7199%: de(cribe(, the decline in Fualit+ of life 7i0e0 availabilit+ of re(ource(: had
begun 6rior to the actual colla6(e of communi(m and the (ituation -a( -or(ened -hen the
(+(tem colla6(ed0 'ccording to her, u6 to $0 6er cent of the 6o6ulation -a( eB6eriencing a
(tead+ decline in living (tandard( (ince 19%0(!
91
Ibid0
92
Quoted in Chaim Paufman, A)o((ible and Im6o((ible olution( to Ithnic War(,E International *ecurity, Vol0
21, No0 2, @all 199&, 60 1"G0
9G
u(an *0 Wood-ard, Balkan Tragedy: 'haos and )issolution after the 'old 7ar, 7Wa(hington <C! 5he
1roo/ing( In(titution, 199J:, 60 1J0
9"
Jo(i6 Uu6anov, et0 al, A' 1rea/do-n of the Civil 4rder! 5he 1al/an 1loodbath,E International 5ournal of
(olitics, 'ulture and *ociety, Vol0 9, No0 G, 199&, 60 "210
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
1o2ana 1lago2evic
?20
7R: thi( gro-ing (en(e of material in(ecurit+, that there -a( no (ign of relief, occurred
in the conteBt of international change and dome(tic economic and 6olitical reform that
al(o 6ulled the rug out from under the mechani(m( b+ -hich (ocial 6eace had been
guaranteed in the countr+ (ince World War II0
9J
'ccording to Wood-ard, the ne- (ituation re(ulted in Aa brea/do-n in routine eB6ectation(
about the futureE and Agro-ing uncertaint+ and o66ortunit+0E
9&
5he o66ortunit+ to u(e the
tran(ition 6eriod to en(ure that all ethnic grou6( -or/ together to overcome the cri(i( and find
a (olution ba(ed on the 6rinci6le( of eFualit+ and non#di(crimination did eBi(t0 ,nfortunatel+,
the fir(t to (ei9e the o66ortunit+ of uncertaint+ -ere the 6olitical entre6reneur( -ho u(ed the
rhetoric of ethnic hatred to create (ocial categorie( of inclu(ion and eBclu(ion, under the
di(gui(e of 6rotecting the intere(t( of their grou6(0 Iach grou6 came to believe that the other
ethnic grou67(: -ould den+ them acce(( to alread+ limited re(ource(, thu( infringing u6on
their right( and abilit+ to lead fulfilling and 6roductive live(0
In 1o(nia, the com6etition over re(ource( manife(ted a( an inter#ethnic (truggle over
future in(titutional arrangement(;ethnic com6o(ition and (tatu( of the countr+0 It -a( fueled
b+ the effort( of 6olitical entre6reneur( to ca6itali9e on o66ortunitie( of change and b+ the
gro-ing ethnic intolerance0 Com6etition and intolerance eventuall+ e(calated into the
6re6aration for and the beginning of a violent armed conflict0
Case tudy Conclusion
In (ummar+, the colla6(e of communi(m and the en(uing 6roce((e( of democrati9ation
6re(ented the (tructural change that cau(ed a general (en(e of economic, 6olitical, and (ocial
in(ecurit+, and uncertaint+ in 1o(nia0 5he eBi(tence of the hi(torical memorie( of ethnic
grievance( 6rovided a conflict 6otential and ground( for revival of ethnic animo(itie(0 <uring
the communi(t rule, the leader( in former .ugo(lavia (u66re((ed the eB6re((ion of ethnic
identitie( and AunitedE different ethnic grou6( under the umbrella of the communi(t 6art+0
4nce the communi(t (tructure( colla6(ed, the mechani(m( to mitigate ethnic emotion( and
conflict -ere no longer in 6lace0 5he 6olitical entre6reneur( emerged a( Anationali(t leader(E
and u(ed the conflict 6otential of ethnicit+ b+ mani6ulating ethnic emotion( and reviving the
hi(torical memorie( of grievance(0 5he uncertaint+ of the ne- (ituation cau(ed the ethnic
grou6( to com6ete for re(ource( fearing that their grou6 -ould be di(advantaged and left
behind unle(( the+ a((erted them(elve( and attem6ted to (ecure their right(0 5he combination
9J
u(an *0 Wood-ard, AIntervention in Civil War( M 1o(nia and 8er9egovina,E Wor/ing )a6er, In(titute of
War and )eace tudie(, Columbia ,niver(it+, 199%, in 'olum"ia International +ffairs 6nline,
htt6!;;---0ciaonet0org, 7acce((ed 2& Januar+ 200J:0
htt6!;;globalaffair(2ournal0org
Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?21
of the(e factor( created the condition( and 6roce((e( -hich eventuall+ culminated to the level
of armed ho(tilitie(0
5hirteen +ear( after the violence ended in 1o(nia, the countr+ remain( divided along
ethnic line(0 In order to le((en the conflict 6otential of ethnicit+ and create a (table future for
1o(nia, international and local 6eacebuilding effort( (hould focu( on e(tabli(hing
mechani(m( that focu( on 6romoting inter#ethnic reconciliation and tolerance0
Concl'(ion
In thi( article, I 6ro6o(ed a conce6tual frame-or/ for under(tanding the cau(e( of ethnic
conflict0 I argued that ethnic conflict i( cau(ed b+ a combination of factor(! a ma2or (tructural
change, ethnic emotion( (temming from hi(torical memorie( of grievance(, mani6ulation of
ethnicit+ b+ 6olitical entre6reneur(, in(titutional factor( that facilitate ethnic intolerance, and
com6etition over re(ource( and right(0 I argued that all five factor( mu(t be 6re(ent for ethnic
conflict to occur0 )rimordiali(t theor+ 6oint( to the role of ethnic emotion( ba(ed on hi(torical
memorie( of grievance(, -hile the other three theorie( eB6lain ho- the re(t of the factor(
interact -ith ethnic emotion( and each other to lead to ethnic conflict0 5hi( frame-or/ -a(
a66lied to the ca(e of ethnic conflict in 1o(nia and 8er9egovina0
In order to devi(e effective 6eacebuilding (trategie(, it i( nece((ar+ to recogni9e and
addre(( the multi6le factor( that cau(e ethnic (trife0 'nal+(i( of ethnic conflict( along
multi6le dimen(ion( 6rovide( a ba(i( for a more com6rehen(ive a66roach to 6eacebuilding
and 6o(t#conflict develo6ment in ethnicall+ divided (ocietie(0
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1o2ana 1lago2evic ?22
Re#e%ence(
'/bar, 'hmed 0 199J0 Ithnic Clean(ingE! ' Keta6hor of 4ur 5imeT &thnic and ,acial
*tudies 1$71:!1#200 1onacich, Idna019%20 ' 5heor+ of Ithnic 'ntagoni(m! 5he 6lit *abor
Kar/et0 +merican *ociological ,eview G$! J"%#J90
##### and J0 Kodell, J0 19$00 The &conomic Basis of &thnic *olidarity: *mall Business in the
5apanese +merican 'ommunity. 1er/ele+ and *o( 'ngele(! ,niver(it+ of California )re((0
1lago2evic, 1o2ana0 200"0 &thnic 'onflict and (ost-'onflict )evelopment: (eace"uilding in
&thnically )ivided *ocieties0 )h0<0 di((0, 3utger( ,niver(it+0 1ringa, 5one0 20020
'verted Ga9e! Genocide in 1o(nia#8er9egovina from 1992#199J0 In
+nnihilating )ifference: The +nthropology of 1enocide, edited b+ 'leBander *aban
8inton0 1er/ele+! ,niver(it+ of California )re((0 1runner, Georg0 199&0 2ationality
(ro"lems and 3inority 'onflicts in &astern &urope0
GOter(loh! 1ertel(mann @oundation )ubli(her(0 1uga2(/i, Janu(90 199"0 &thnic
(olitics in &astern &urope: + 1uide to 2ationality (olicies,
6rganizations, and (arties0 Center for trategic and International tudie(, 'rmon/!
K0I0 har6e0 1urg, teven *0 and )aul 0 hou60 19990 The 7ar in Bosnia-
Herzegovina: &thnic 'onflict
and International Intervention. 'rmon/! K0I0 har6e0 Clinton, 1ill0 199"0 tate of the
,nion 'ddre(( 199"0 5ran(cri6t of ClintonN( 'ddre((0 2ew
4ork Times, Januar+ 2&0 Cra-ford, 1everl+0 199$0 5he Cau(e( of Cultural Conflict! 'n
In(titutional '66roach0 In The
3yth of >&thnic 'onflict, edited b+ 1everl+ Cra-ford and 3onnie <0 *i6(chut90
International and 'rea tudie( 3e(earch erie(;Number 9$0 1er/ele+! ,niver(it+ of
California0
##### 199$0 5he Cau(e( of Cultural Conflict! '((e((ing the Ividence0 In The 3yth of >&thnic
'onflict, edited b+ 1everl+ Cra-ford and 3onnie <0 *i6(chut90 International and
'rea tudie( 3e(earch erie(;Number 9$0 1er/ele+! ,niver(it+ of California0 <e
Varenne(, @ernand0 200G0 )eace 'ccord( and Ithnic Conflict(! ' Com6arative 'nal+(i(
of Content and '66roache(0 In 'ontemporary (eacemaking: 'onflict, /iolence and
(eace (rocess, edited b+ John <arb+ and 3oger KacGint+0 Ne- .or/! )algrave
Kacmillan0 <ic/, C0 J0 19920 erbian 3e(6on(e( to Intervention in 1o(nia
8ercegovina0 British +rmy
,eview, 102!1$#2J0 <iBon, William J0 199"0 <emocrac+ and the )eaceful ettlement
of International Conflict0
+merican (olitical *cience ,eview $$71:!1"0 <re-, Ili9abeth0
19920 *etter from Wa(hington0 2ew 4orker, Jul+ 20
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Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?2G
Iconomi(t Intelligence ,nit0 199J#9&0 'ountry (rofile: Bosnia-Herzegovina, 'roatia,
*lovenia. *ondon! 5he Iconomi(t Intelligence ,nit0 Inloe, C+nthia0 19$10 5he
Gro-th of the tate and Ithnic Kobili9ation! 5he 'merican
IB6erience0 &thnic and ,acial *tudies "! 12G#G&0 @earon, Jame( <0 and <avid <0
*aitin0 199&0 AIB6laining Interethnic Coo6eration0E The
+merican (olitical *cience ,eview 907":!%1J,%G00 Gangul+, 3a2at0 199$0 Wh+ <o
Ithnic Grou6( Kobili9eT In 2ational Identities and &thnic
3inorities in &astern &urope, edited b+ 30 5ara(0 Ne- .or/! t0 KartinN( )re((0
Glenn+, Ki(ha0 19920 The 0all of 4ugoslavia: The Third Balkan 7ar. *ondon! )enguin
1oo/(0 Gurr, 5ed 3obert0 199G0 Wh+ Kinoritie( 3ebel! ' Global 'nal+(i( of
Communal
Kobili9ation and Conflict ince 19"J0 International (olitical *cience ,eview 1"72:0
8annan, Kichael 50 19%90 5he <+namic( of Ithnic 1oundarie( in Kodern tate(0 In 2ational
)evelopment and the 7orld *ystem, edited b+ J0 W0 Ke+er and Kichael 50 8annan0
Chicago! ,niver(it+ of Chicago )re((0 8echter, Kichael0 19%%0 Internal 'olonialism:
The 'eltic 0ringe in British 2ational
)evelopment, 89:;-89;;. 1er/ele+! ,niver(it+ of California )re((0
##### 19%$0 Grou6 @ormation and the Cultural <ivi(ion of *abor0 +merican 5ournal of
*ociology $"72:!29G#G1$0 8od(on, 3and+ et al0 199"0 National 5olerance in the
@ormer .ugo(lavia0 The +merican
5ournal of *ociology 997&:!1JGJ0 8oro-it9, <onald *0 19$J0 &thnic 1roups in
'onflict. *o( 'ngele(! ,niver(it+ of California
)re((0 Jalali, 3ita and *i6(et, e+mour Kartin0 1992#9G0 3acial and Ithnic Conflict(!
' Global
)er(6ective0 (olitical *cience -uarterly 10%7":!J9J#J9%, &000 Parantn+c/+, 'drian et
al0 7ed(:0 19990 2ations in Transit 899<: 'ivil *ociety, )emocracy,
and 3arkets in &ast 'entral &urope and the 2ewly Independent *tates0 Ne-
1run(-ic/! 5ran(action )ubli(her(, @reedom 8ou(e0 Paufman, Chaim0 199&0 )o((ible
and Im6o((ible olution( to Ithnic War(0 International
*ecurity 2172:!1G$, 1"G0 Paufman, tuart J0 199&0 6iraling to Ithnic War! Ilite,
Ka((e(, and Ko(co- in KoldovaN(
Civil War0 International *ecurity 2172:!1090 P6o(o-a, '0J0 'nd Jen/in(, J0C0
199G0S5he tructural ource( of Kilitar+ Cou6( in
)o(tcolonial 'frica, 19J%#19$"0 +merican 5ournal of *ociology 9971:!12&#&G0 *a/e,
<avid '0 and <onald 3othchild0 199&0 Ithnic @ear( and Global Ingagement! 5he
International 6read and Kanagement of Ithnic Conflict0 Wor/ing )a6er0 In
'olum"ia International +ffairs 6nline, htt6!;;---0ciaonet0org0
##### 199&0 Containing @ear! 5he 4rigin( and Kanagement of Ithnic Conflict0 International
*ecurity 2172:!"10 *e-i(, 1ernard0 19920 Ku(lim(, Chri(tian( and Je-(! 5he <ream
of CoeBi(tence0 2ew 4ork
,eview of Books, Karch 2&0
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1o2ana 1lago2evic
?2"
*i26hart, 'rend0 19990 Terms of )emocracy: 1overnment 0orms and (erformance in Thirty-
*i% 'ountries0 Ne- 8aven! .ale ,niver(it+ )re((0 Korri(, 0 20010 '((e((ing Conflict
Vulnerabilit+0 )emocracy )ialogue, 5echnical Note(
from ,'I< 4ffice of <emocrac+ and Governance0 Nagel, Joane0 19$&0 5he )olitical
Con(truction of Ithnicit+0 In 'ompetitive &thnic ,elations,
edited b+ u(an 4l9a/ and Joane Nagel0 1o(ton! 'cademic )re((0 Niel(en, @ranLoi(0
19$J0 5o-ard a 5heor+ of Ithnic olidarit+0 +merican *ociological
,eview J072:0 4rgani9ation for Iconomic Coo6eration and <evelo6ment # ,nited
tate( 'genc+ for
International <evelo6ment 74IC<#,'I<:0 200G0 *and, Conflict and <evelo6ment!
What 3ole of <onor(T ummar+0 4IC<#,'I< Informal IB6ert(N eminar, June 19
and 200 4l9a/, u(an and Ili9abeth We(t0 19910 Ithnic Conflict and the 3i(e and @all
of Ithnic
Ne-(6a6er(0 +merican *ociological ,eview J&!91, "J$#%"0 4l9a/, u(an and Joane
Nagel, ed(0 19$&0 'ompetitive &thnic ,elations0 4rlando and 1o(ton!
'cademic )re((0 )eter(en, 3oger <ale0 20020 .nderstanding &thnic /iolence: 0ear,
Hatred, and ,esentment
in Twentieth-'entury &astern &urope. Cambridge! Cambridge ,niver(it+ )re((0
)ra9au(/a(, 'lgi(0 19910 Ithnic Conflict( in the ConteBt of <emocrati9ing )olitical +(tem(0
Theory and *ociety 20!J$1#2, J92#&0
##### 199J0 Ithnic Identit+, 8i(torical Kemor+, and Nationali(m in )o(t#oviet tate(0
Wor/ing )a6er0 In 'olum"ia International +ffairs 6nline, htt6!;;---0ciaonet0org0
3e+chler, *uc0 19990 )emocratic (eace-Building and 'onflict (revention: The )evil is in
Transition. *euven! *euven ,niver(it+ )re((, Center for )eace 3e(earch and trategic
tudie( 7C)3:, 19990 3oe, )aul0 200J0 &thnic /iolence and the *ocietal *ecurity
)ilemma. Ne- .or/! 3outledge0 3oth(child, Jo(e6h0 19$10 &thnopolitics: + 'onceptual
0ramework. Ne- .or/! Columbia
,niver(it+ )re((0
n+der, Jac/0 199G0 Nationali(m and the Cri(i( of the )o(t#oviet tate0 *urvival GJ71:! J#2&
##### 20000 0rom /oting to /iolence: )emocratization and 2ationalist 'onflict. Ne- .or/!
W0W0 Norton V Com6an+, Inc0 omer, Kurat0 199%0 IB6laining the 8ardl+
)redictable! Cau(e( and Con(eFuence( of
Ithnification0 Wor/ing )a6er0 In 'olum"ia International +ffairs 6nline,
htt6!;;---0ciaonet0org0 un+, 3onald Grigor0 20020 Wh+ We 8ate .ou! 5he )a((ion(
of 3eligiou( and Ithnic
Violence0 ' 5al/ for )urdue ,niver(it+, November %0
##### 20010 ACon(tructing )rimordiali(m! 4ld 8i(torie( for Ne- Nation(,E The 5ournal of
3odern History %G7":!$&9#$%0, $9&0 9a+na, 5homa( 0 199"0 &thnic 'onflict in
'entral &urope and the Balkans: + 0ramework
for ..*. (olicy 6ptions. anta Konica! 3and0
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Cau(e( of Ithnic Conflict
?2J
Ve2voda, Ivan0 199&0 1+ Wa+ of Conclu(ion to 'void the IBtreme( of uffering0 In
4ugoslavia and +fter: + *tudy in 0ragmentation, )espair and ,e"irth, edited b+
<avid <+/er and Ivan Ve2voda0 *ondon! 'ddi(on We(le+ *ongman0 William(, 30K0
199"0 5he ociolog+ of Ithnic Conflict(! Com6arative International
)er(6ective(0 +nnual ,eview of *ociology 20!JJ0 Wood-ard, u(an *0 199J0 Balkan
Tragedy: 'haos and )issolution after the 'old 7ar0
Wa(hington <C! 5he 1roo/ing( In(titution0
##### 199%0 Intervention in Civil War( M 1o(nia and 8er9egovina0 Wor/ing )a6er0 In(titute of
War and )eace tudie(, Columbia ,niver(it+0 In 'olum"ia International +ffairs
6nline, htt6!;;---0ciaonet0org0 .inger, K0J0 19$J0 Ithnicit+0 +nnual ,eview of
*ociology 11!1&J0 Uimmermann, W0 199J0 Kemoir( of the *a(t 'merican 'mba((ador to
.ugo(lavia0 0oreign
+ffairs %"72:!200 Uu6anov, Jo(i6 et al0 199&0 ' 1rea/do-n of the Civil 4rder! 5he
1al/an 1loodbath0 #
International 5ournal of (olitics, 'ulture and *ociety 97G:! "0J#&, "1G#", "210
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