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THE DES MOI NES REGI STER/ BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers October 1-7, 2014
Compared to 426 Democratic likely caucusgoers 3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform
Margin of error: 4.8 percentage points to active voters in Iowa voter registration list


BASED ON REPUBLICAN CAUCUSGOERS

Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?


100 Yes
- No

- Not sure

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the
Republican caucus?


REP
CG
Dem
CG

- 39 Definitely attend Democratic caucus

- 61 Probably attend Democratic caucus
39 - Definitely attend Republican caucus
61 - Probably attend Republican caucus
- - Probably not attend a caucus
- - Dont know which caucus will attend
- - Not sure

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a Republican
caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?


REP
CG
Dem
CG


72 12 Attended Republican caucus in the past
2 63 Attended Democratic caucus in the past
11 12 Attended both
14 12 First caucus
1 1 Not sure


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Which of the following do you see as the most important issue for the next president to address? (Read list. Rotate.)


REP
CG
Dem
CG


11 8 Immigration
11 18 Health care
23 9 The federal deficit
16 9 Terrorism
9 4 Taxes

11 21 Unemployment and jobs
- 12 Climate change

12 9 Foreign policy
3 2 Other (VOL) (specify:)
1 1 None of these (VOL)
3 7 Not sure

In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?


REP
CG
Dem
CG


8 51 Right direction
90 42 Wrong track
2 7 Not sure

What about here in Iowa? Do you think things in the state are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on
the wrong track?


REP
CG
Dem
CG


75 49 Right direction
18 44 Wrong track
7 7 Not sure

Turning now to the conflict in Iraq and Syria involving ISIS, the Islamic State: President Obama has begun military
operations with air force bombings. He has been very clear he is ruling out any U.S. troops to engage in a ground war.
Some want to leave that option open. What is your thought? Do you think the U.S. should or should not rule out
having American boots on the ground in Iraq or Syria?


REP
CG
Dem
CG


23 45 Should rule out boots on the ground
67 46 Should not rule out boots on the ground
10 9 Not sure

Which of the following better reflects your thinking about U.S. involvement in other countries to combat serious
terrorism threats: (Rotate options.)


REP
CG
Dem
CG


65 40 As a global military leader, the U.S. must take the lead in combating terrorism, even if it
means acting alone, because it is dangerous for the U.S. to let terror groups grow
23 49 The U.S. is overextended from military actions over the last 13 years that have not turned out
well. It is dangerous to the U.S. economy to enter new conflicts
12 11 Not sure
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Compared to five years ago, would you say you are better off financially, worse off, or about the same?


REP
CG
Dem
CG


25 40 Better off
30 16 Worse off
45 43 About the same
- 1 Not sure

Now, Im going to mention some people talked about as possible candidates for the Republican nomination
for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly
unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record
dont know as not sure. Rotate list.)


Fav Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure

Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida 50 28 9 41 19 9 22
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from
Maryland 41 8 24 17 4 4 51
Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey 39 45 8 31 29 16 16
Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas 52 18 20 32 11 7 30
Mike Huckabee, former governor of
Arkansas 59 30 23 36 23 7 11
John Kasich, governor of Ohio 17 7 3 14 5 2 76
Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana 41 14 12 29 11 3 45
Mike Pence, governor of Indiana 10 10 2 8 8 2 80
Rick Perry, governor of Texas 64 23 23 41 17 6 13
Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky 59 24 21 38 18 6 17
Rob Portman, U.S. senator from Ohio 9 10 1 8 7 3 81
Mitt Romney, former governor of
Massachusetts and former Republican
nominee for president 65 30 28 37 20 10 5
Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida 54 16 14 40 12 4 30
Paul Ryan, U.S. representative from
Wisconsin and former Republican nominee
for vice president 75 14 25 50 11 3 11
Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from
Pennsylvania 52 30 14 38 20 10 18
Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin 49 10 20 29 7 3 41


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Which one of the following Republican candidates would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, record as No first choice and do not ask second
choice. Read list only if necessary.)


Q.10a
First
Choice
Q.10b
Second
Choice
First or second choice
Combined*

Jeb Bush 4 8 12
Ben Carson 11 7 18
Chris Christie 6 5 11
Ted Cruz 7 6 13
Mike Huckabee 9 8 17
John Kasich 1 - 1
Bobby Jindal 1 4 5
Mike Pence - 1 1
Rick Perry 7 6 13
Rand Paul 10 8 18
Rob Portman - - -
Mitt Romney 17 8 25
Marco Rubio 2 3 5
Paul Ryan 8 10 18
Rick Santorum 3 5 8
Scott Walker 4 5 9
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
1 N/A
Not sure 9 6
No first choice N/A 10

*Combines answers from first choice and second choice, so total may exceed 100%.

Im going to mention the names of some Republican leaders. For each, please tell me how important their
opinion is to you in deciding which candidate to supportvery important, fairly important, just somewhat
important, or not important. If you dont know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont
know as not sure. Rotate list.)


Very
Important
Fairly
Important
Just
somewhat
Important
Not
Important
Not
Sure

Bob Vander Plaats, president of the Family
Leader 12 8 17 33 30
Ron Paul, former U.S. representative from
Texas and candidate for the Republican
nomination for president 26 12 25 29 8
Chuck Grassley, U.S. senator from Iowa 46 18 17 13 6
Rush Limbaugh, a radio talk show host 18 12 24 41 5


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Im going to mention some stands on specific issues a candidate might take. For each, please tell me if you favor
or oppose the position. (Rotate list.)

Which one or two issues are most important to you?
(Accept up to two answers. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)


Favor Oppose Not sure
Most
important

Supports making abortions illegal in all cases 46 47 7 17
Supports making same-sex marriages illegal 53 39 8 9
Supports keeping possession of marijuana a crime in all
cases 37 54 9 4
Supports U.S. military action to degrade and destroy the
Islamic State 74 17 9 33
Supports cutting taxes on all Americans 78 17 5 24
Supports repealing the Affordable Care Act, also known
as Obamacare 73 24 3 42
Opposes immigration reform that would create a path to
citizenship 42 45 13 20
None of these/not sure 6

The Republican Party has two main views on foreign policy. Which is closer to your viewshould the U.S. be quicker to
intervene in conflicts overseas, as John McCain suggests, or should the U.S. pull back current military engagements to be
less interventionist in foreign policy, as Rand Paul suggests?

45 Be quicker to intervene
41 Pull back and be less interventionist
14 Not sure

Which one or two of the following are the most important qualities you want in the next president? (Accept up to two answers.
Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)

63 Fiscal conservative
21 Social conservative
9 Libertarian
16 Foreign policy hardliner
9 None of these/Not sure

Do you think it would help or hurt the Republican Party to place greater emphasis on Christian religious beliefs?

Help Hurt
Not
sure
50 40 10

About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 1-7 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines,
is based on telephone interviews with 425 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Republican caucuses and 426 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic
caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 3,677 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age and sex to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

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Questions based on the subsamples of 425 likely Republican caucus attendees and 426 likely Democratic caucus
attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.