Pass 55 CBRM2

EA Technology Limited 2011
Review
Lifecycles
Create/acquire
Utilise
Maintain
Dispose/renew
Asset management
Condition-based Risk Management (CBRM)
What is CBRM?
It is a process that uses
engineering knowledge
practical experience
asset information
computer models
to quantify current and future asset
condition, performance and risk
4
What is CBRM?
What is CBRM?
It is used to
optimise asset replacement strategy
develop investment plans
prepare and justify regulatory submissions
demonstrate efficiency
6
Condition - Health Index
Health Index
Condition Management Strategy
Intervention required
Poor
Fair
Good
At end of life Bad
Routine maintenance
New condition
10
0
Health index: case studies
0 3 5 10
Health index (HI)
Measurable
deterioration but
no significant
increase in POF
Significant
deterioration
small increase
in POF
Serious
deterioration
significant
increase in
POF
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

o
f

f
a
i
l
u
r
e
9
Performance - Probability of
failure
Health Index: now
Y0 HI Profile - Primary Transformers
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10+ No
Result
HI Category
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

A
s
s
e
t
s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
P
r
o
j
e
c
t
e
d

A
n
n
u
a
l

F
a
u
l
t

R
a
t
e
Health Index: +10 years
Y10 HI Profile - Primary Transformers
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10+ No
Result
HI Category
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

A
s
s
e
t
s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
P
r
o
j
e
c
t
e
d

A
n
n
u
a
l

F
a
u
l
t

R
a
t
e
12
Consequence Category
Network performance
Safety
Financial
Environmental
Minor
Catastrophic
Consequence-Criticality factors
Consequences: case studies
Network performance
Safety
Financial
Environmental
Network performance
Safety
Financial
Environmental
Risk =
Probability of failure x Consequences of failure
Consequences of failure =
Criticality factor x Average consequences
Risk
Risk: case studies
Risk over time: now
Y0 Risk Profile - Primary Transformers
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Asset
R
i
s
k

(
$
)
Performance Safety Opex Capex Environment
Risk over time: + 10 years
Y10 Risk Profile - Primary Transformers
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Asset
R
i
s
k

(
$
)
Performance Safety Opex Capex Environment
18
$0
$1m
$2m
$3m
$4m
$5m
$6m
$7m
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
V
a
l
u
e

o
f

R
i
s
k
No investment
3.3% replacement (optimum investment)
1.5% replacement (reduced investment)
5% replacement
Y11-Y20
Do nothing
Constrain
investment
Manage
risk
Risk over time
19
Asset Investment Plan
20
Asset Investment Plan
Present Value optimisation
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Discounted investment
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Discounted delta risk
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Total cost of replacement
Optimum
replacement
period
Optimised investment
Asset due for replacement
Asset with life remaining
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Optimum
replacement
period
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Optimum
replacement
period
Optimised investment
Asset due for replacement
Asset with life remaining
Future investment plan
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Optimum
replacement
period
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Optimum
replacement
period
Replacement Pr of ile f or Year s 1-20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920
Year
N
u
m
b
e
r

r
e
p
l
a
c
e
d
24
Optimum economic performance
25
26
27
28
1. Assethealthindex(HI)andageingrate
2. Probabilityoffailureforeachasset(POF)
3. Consequencesoffailureandfinancialrisk
4. Runfuturescenariosandoptions
Health Index Probability of failure Consequences Risk
L M H L M H L M H 1 10
CBRM: step-by-step
29
Condition Performance Consequences Risk
T
r
a
n
s
f
o
r
m
e
r
s
132kV
33kV
S
w
i
t
c
h
g
e
a
r
132kV
33kV
11kV
Case Study - CBRM Audit
30
Integrated CBRM
31
Integrated CBRM
Further reading
1. The use of " Health Indices" to determine end of life and estimate remnant
life for distribution assets
D. Hughes, CIRED2003 Session 5, Barcelona: 2003
2. Condition Based Risk Management (CBRM) Enabling Asset Management
Condition Information To Be Central To Corporate Asset Management
Decision Making
D. Hughes, CIRED2005 Session 5, Turin: 2005
3. Condition Based Risk Management (CBRM), a Process to Link Engineering
Knowledge and Practical Experience to Investment Planning an Update
D. Hughes and T. Pears, CIRED2007 Session 5, Vienna: 2007
4. Condition Based Risk Management (CBRM): Bringing Excellence In Asset
Management Into The Boardroom
D. Hughes, P. Barnfather and T. Pears, CIRED 2009 Session 5, Prague: 2009
5. Determination of asset criticality: a practical method for use in risk-based
investment planning
P. Barnfather, D. Hughes and S. Holmes, CIRED 2011 Session 5, Frankfurt: 2011
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