The Expected rate of return is the weighted average of all possible returns multiplied by their
respective probabilities.
Average return = R/N
Variance and Standard deviation:
The most commonly used measure of risk in finance is variance or its square root the
standard deviation. The variance and standard deviation of a historical return series.
CALCULATION
OF
AVERAGE
RETURN
&
STANDARD
DEVIATION
OF
Year
Opening
Share
Price (P0)
Closing
Share
Price (P1)
R= (P1-P0)
/P0*100
Average
Return (R
= R/5)
d= (R-R)
d2
2010
992.88
695.41
-29.96
0.51
-30.47
928.43
2011
695.41
663.37
-4.61
0.51
-5.12
26.19
2012
663.37
981.38
47.94
0.51
47.43
2249.53
2013
981.38
959.39
-2.24
0.51
-2.75
7.57
2014
959.39
876.85
-8.60
0.51
-9.11
83.06
COMPANIES:
ICICI BANK
2.53
3294.77
Variance
= 823.69
= 28.70
INTERPRETATION:
The Standard deviation of ICICI BANK is 28.70, the average returns was very low with 0.51, the
above table clearly states that during the 5 years tenure ICICI BANK has yielded negative
returns in 4 years.
SBI BANK
Year
Opening
Share
Price (P0)
Closing
Share
Price (P1)
R= (P1-P0)
/P0*100
Average
Return (R
= R/5)
d= (R-R)
d2
2010
252.98
245.99
-2.76
16.85
-19.61
384.70
2011
245.99
275.29
11.91
16.85
-4.94
24.39
2012
275.29
411.90
49.62
16.85
32.77
1074.11
2013
411.90
459.02
11.44
16.85
-5.41
29.29
2014
459.02
523.40
14.03
16.85
-2.82
7.97
84.24
1520.46
Variance
= 380.12
= 19.50
INTERPRETATION:
The Standard deviation of HDFC BANK is 19.50, the average returns are 16.85, from the above
table it can be understand that HDFC BANK is giving good returns, but in the year 2010 it
yielded negative returns. The above data reflects after adjusting to stock split of 5:1 in july 2013.
INFOSYS
Year
Opening
Share
Price (P0)
Closing
Share
Price (P1)
R= (P1-P0)
/P0*100
Average
Return (R
= R/5)
d= (R-R)
d2
2010
1931.23
1533.03
-20.62
9.22
-29.84
890.36
2011
1533.03
1870.53
22.01
9.22
12.79
163.70
2012
1870.53
2823.06
50.92
9.22
41.70
1739.19
2013
2823.06
2821.04
-0.07
9.22
-9.29
86.33
2014
2821.04
2648.12
-6.13
9.22
-15.35
235.62
46.12
3115.20
Variance
= 778.80
= 27.91
INTERPRETATION:
The Standard devaition of INFOSYS is 27.91, the average returns are 9.22 the table signifies that
returns of INFOSYS are fluctuating from year to year.
TCS
Year
Opening
Share
Price (P0)
Closing
Share
Price (P1)
R= (P1-P0)
/P0*100
Average
Return (R
= R/5)
d= (R-R)
d2
2010
1144.77
770.78
-32.67
5.94
-38.61
1490.65
2011
770.78
581.76
-24.52
5.94
-30.46
928.04
2012
581.76
869.79
49.51
5.94
43.57
1898.35
2013
869.79
1129.70
29.88
5.94
23.94
573.26
2014
1129.70
1214.61
7.52
5.94
1.58
2.48
29.72
4892.79
Variance
= 1223.20
= 34.97
INTERPRETATION:
The Standard deviation of TCS is 34.97, the average returns are 5.94, the table states that TCS
are giving good returns for the past 3 years but standard deviation is high.
ITC
Year
Opening
Share
Price (P0)
Closing
Share
Price (P1)
R= (P1-P0)
/P0*100
Average
Return (R
= R/5)
d= (R-R)
d2
2010
86.80
95.48
9.99
21.87
-11.88
141.10
2011
95.48
107.82
12.93
21.87
-8.94
79.98
2012
107.82
150.91
39.97
21.87
18.10
327.59
2013
150.91
193.54
28.25
21.87
6.38
40.66
2014
193.54
228.78
18.21
21.87
-3.66
13.39
109.35
602.72
Variance
= 150.68
= 12.28
INTERPRETATION:
The Standard deviation of ITC is 12.28 the average returns are 21.87, from table it can be
understand that ITC is yielding high returns & the standard deviation is also very low. The above
data reflects after adjusting bonus issue of 2:1 in july 2012.
Opening
Share
Price (P0)
Closing
Share
Price (P1)
R= (P1-P0)
/P0*100
Average
Return (R
= R/5)
d= (R-R)
d2
2010
203.69
233.36
14.57
15.40
-0.83
0.69
2011
233.36
261.07
11.87
15.40
-3.53
12.45
2012
261.07
265.83
1.83
15.40
-13.57
184.26
2013
265.83
327.91
23.35
15.40
7.95
63.22
2014
327.91
411.14
25.38
15.40
9.98
99.66
77.00
360.28
Variance
= 90.07
= 9.49
INTERPRETATION:
The Standard deviation of HUL is 9.49, the average returns are 15.40 the table clearly signifies
that HUL is giving good returns, all the years returns are positive.
Year
Opening
Share
Price (P0)
Closing
Share
Price (P1)
R= (P1-P0)
/P0*100
Average
Return (R
= R/5)
d= (R-R)
d2
2010
206.21
257.70
24.97
24.12
0.85
0.73
2011
257.70
248.05
-3.75
24.12
-27.87
776.49
2012
248.05
368.93
48.73
24.12
24.61
605.73
2013
368.93
478.10
29.59
24.12
5.47
29.94
2014
478.10
578.75
21.05
24.12
-3.07
9.42
120.60
1422.31
Variance
= 355.58
= 18.86
INTERPRETATION:
The Standard deviation of SUN PHARMACEUTICAL is 18.86, the average returns are 24.12,
with 48.73 returns being highest in the year 2012 & lowest returns being -3.75 in the year 2011.
The above data reflects after adjusting to stock split of 5:1 in November 2012.
CIPLA
Year
Opening
Share
Price (P0)
Closing
Share
Price (P1)
R= (P1-P0)
/P0*100
Average
Return (R
= R/5)
d= (R-R)
d2
2010
205.58
208.67
1.50
9.96
-8.46
71.58
2011
208.67
257.52
23.41
9.96
13.45
180.97
2012
257.52
332.20
29.00
9.96
19.04
362.49
2013
332.20
310.91
-6.41
9.96
-16.37
267.95
2014
310.91
318.07
2.30
9.96
-7.66
58.64
49.80
941.63
Variance
= 235.41
= 15.34
INTERPRETATION:
The Standard deviation of CIPLA is 15.34, the average returns are 9.96, from the above table it
can be understand that CIPLA is yielding good returns with low standard deviation.
Opening
Share
Price (P0)
Closing
Share
Price (P1)
R= (P1-P0)
/P0*100
Average
Return (R
= R/5)
d= (R-R)
d2
2010
1980.88
2027.83
2.37
-16.21
18.58
345.22
2011
2027.83
1705.24
-15.91
-16.21
0.30
0.09
2012
1705.24
1026.61
-39.80
-16.21
-23.59
556.33
2013
1026.61
877.52
-14.52
-16.21
1.69
2.85
2014
877.52
761.83
-13.18
-16.21
3.03
9.16
-81.04
913.66
Variance
= 228.41
= 15.11
INTERPRETATION:
The Standard deviation of RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD is 15.11, the average returns are
negative with -16.21, they are yielding negative returns in all the years except in 2010.
Year
Opening
Share
Price (P0)
Closing
Share
Price (P1)
R= (P1-P0)
/P0*100
Average
Return (R
= R/5)
d= (R-R)
d2
2010
486.89
449.26
-7.73
-6.80
-0.93
0.86
2011
449.26
511.16
13.78
-6.80
20.58
423.48
2012
511.16
611.91
19.71
-6.80
26.51
702.74
2013
611.91
301.04
-50.80
-6.80
-44.00
1936.32
2014
301.04
274.10
-8.95
-6.80
-2.15
4.61
-33.99
3068.02
Variance
= 767.01
= 27.69
INTERPRETATION:
The Standard deviation of ONGC is 27.69, the average returns are negative with -6.80, the
returns of ONGC are fluctuating from year to year & the standard deviation is very high. The
above data reflects after adjusting to stock split of 2:1 in February 2013.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Dev. Of ICICI
Dev. Of HDFC
Product of dev.
BANK (dx)
BANK (dy)
(dx)(dy)
-30.47
-5.12
47.43
-2.75
-9.11
TOTAL
-19.61
-4.94
32.77
-5.41
-2.82
597.63
25.28
1554.42
14.89
25.73
2217.95
Dev. Of
INFOSYS (dx)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-29.84
12.79
41.70
-9.29
-15.35
TOTAL
Product of dev.
(dx)(dy)
-38.61
-30.46
43.57
23.94
1.58
1152.05
-389.77
1817.03
-222.47
-24.19
2332.65
INTERPRETATION:
The correlation of coefficient between INFOSYS & TCS is 0.60, this table states that INFOSYS
& TCS are yeilding same percentage of returns year by year.
Product of dev.
(dx)(dy)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-11.88
-8.94
18.10
6.38
-3.66
TOTAL
-0.83
-3.53
-13.57
7.95
9.98
9.90
31.55
-245.69
50.70
-36.52
-190.05
INTERPRETATION:
The correlation of coefficient between ITC & HUL is -0.41, from the above table it can state that
returns of ITC & HUL are negatively correlated to each other.
Dev. Of SUN
Dev. Of
Product of dev.
PHARMACEUTICAL (dx)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CIPLA (dy)
(dx)(dy)
-8.46
13.45
19.04
-16.37
-7.66
-7.22
-374.86
468.59
-89.57
23.50
20.44
0.85
-27.87
24.61
5.47
-3.07
TOTAL
Dev. Of
Dev. Of ONGC
Product of dev.
RELIANCE (dx)
(dy)
(dx)(dy)
18.58
0.30
-23.59
1.69
3.03
TOTAL
-0.93
20.58
26.51
-44.00
-2.15
-17.27
6.21
-625.27
-74.26
-6.50
-717.08
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
INTERPRETATION:
The correlation of coefficient between RELIANCE & ONGC is -0.43, the above table signifies
that RELIANCE & ONGC returns are negatively correlated.
Wa =
Where,
Xa is the proportion of security A
Xb is the proportion of security B
a = standard deviation of security A
b = standard deviation of security B
rab = correlation co-efficient between A&B
(27.69)2- (-0.43)(15.11)(27.69)
Xa =
(15.11)2 + (27.69)2-2 (-0.43)(15.11)(27.69)
= 0.70
Xb = 1- 0.70
= 0.30
*(Xa) 2
*(Xb) 2
Where,
P = portfolio risk
Xa = proportion of investment in security A
Xb = proportion of investment in security B
R12 = correlation co-efficient between security 1 & 2
a = standard deviation of security 1
b = standard deviation of security 2
Product of dev.
(dx)(dy)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-38.61
-30.46
43.57
23.94
1.58
TOTAL
-0.83
-3.53
-13.57
7.95
9.98
32.18
107.48
-591.43
190.37
15.73
-245.66
Dev. Of ICICI
(dx)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-30.47
-5.12
47.43
-2.75
-9.11
TOTAL
Product of dev.
(dx)(dy)
-11.88
-8.94
18.10
6.38
-3.66
361.94
45.77
858.44
-17.54
33.34
1281.95
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Dev. Of
Dev. Of
Product of dev.
INFOSYS (dx)
RELIANCE (dy)
(dx)(dy)
-29.84
12.79
41.70
-9.29
-15.35
TOTAL
18.58
0.30
-23.59
1.69
3.03
-554.41
3.86
-983.65
-15.68
-46.46
-1596.34
Rp = (-0.51)(28.7) +(1.51)(12.28)
= 3.91
INFOSYS & RELINACE:
Rp = (0.35)(27.91) +(0.65)(15.11)
= 19.59
CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN TWO COMPANIES OF DIFFERENT
INDUSTRIES:
Correlation Between TCS & HUL:
YEAR
Product of dev.
(dx)(dy)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-38.61
-30.46
43.57
23.94
1.58
TOTAL
-0.83
-3.53
-13.57
7.95
9.98
32.18
107.48
-591.43
190.37
15.73
-245.66
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-38.61
-30.46
43.57
23.94
1.58
TOTAL
Dev. Of HDFC
Product of dev.
(dy)
(dx)(dy)
-19.61
-4.94
32.77
-5.41
-2.82
757.26
150.46
1427.95
-129.58
-4.45
2201.64
Dev. Of HDFC
(dx)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-19.61
-4.94
32.77
-5.41
-2.82
TOTAL
Product of dev.
(dx)(dy)
-0.83
-3.53
-13.57
7.95
9.98
16.35
17.43
-444.87
-43.03
-28.18
-482.32
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Dev. Of
Dev. Of
Product of dev.
IBFOSYS (dx)
RELIANCE (dy)
(dx)(dy)
-29.84
12.79
41.70
-9.29
-15.35
TOTAL
18.58
0.30
-23.59
1.69
3.03
-554.41
3.86
-983.65
-15.68
-46.46
-1596.34
Dev. Of
INFOSYS (dx)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Product of dev.
(dx)(dy)
-29.84
12.79
41.70
-9.29
-15.35
TOTAL
-11.88
-8.94
18.10
6.38
-3.66
354.44
-114.43
754.81
-59.25
56.16
991.73
Dev. Of
RELIANCE (dx)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
18.58
0.30
-23.59
1.69
3.03
TOTAL
Product of dev.
(dx)(dy)
-11.88
-8.94
18.10
6.38
-3.66
-220.70
-2.70
-426.91
10.76
-11.07
-650.52
Xa =
(9.49)2 + (19.5)2-2 (-0.65)(19.5) (9.49)
= 0.30
Xb = 1- (0.30)
= 0.70
Xa =
(12.28)2 + (15.11)2-2 (-0.88)(15.11) (12.28)
= 0.45
Xb = 1- (0.45)
= 0.55