Incumbent edge

October 23, 2014

The incumbent advantage usually lasts only 12 years. Not anymore. With
the passing o the 1!th "mendment, the incumbent #resident has a crucial
head start in any electoral contest, potentially orever
$attle lines %ill be dra%n this %ee& %hen #resident 'ahinda (a)apa&sa
moves to present his *overnment+s $udget or 201,, setting the stage or
his re-election campaign, e.pected to &ic& o/ o0cially about si. %ee&s
rom no%.
1t is the country+s %orst &ept secret that the $udget presentation has been
advanced by several %ee&s in order to acilitate #resident (a)apa&sa+s
preerred dates to announce a presidential election early ne.t year.
2ommittee stages and second and third readings o the $udget %ill all be
concluded beore the announcement is e.pected shortly ater the #resident
completes his ourth year o his second term in o0ce on 1! November.
1ncumbency and enormous resources and untrammelled
e.ecutive po%er %ithin his
grasp, #resident (a)apa&sa
loo&s set to optimise his head
start in the presidential
campaign, setting himsel up
as a clear rontrunner beore
the poll is even announced.
Opposition parties have
accused the #resident o using
his o0ce and his o0cial
residences to conduct
campaign meetings %ith
di/erent sections o the
electorate. 3N# 4eadership
2ouncil 2hairman 5aru
6ayasuriya, %ho remains a
contender in the race to 7nd
the 8common+ candidate,
accused #resident (a)apa&sa
on Tuesday o violating election
la%s beore the poll has been
declared. 6ayasuriya claims
that lately, the #resident hosts
regular bu/ets and ood
dansals at Temple Trees,
9agrantly abusing his o0ce
and :tate residence to %in
votes.

1ncumbent holds all the trumps
$ut %hen elections are
declared based on %hat the stars avour, such violations become the norm
rather than the e.ception. 3nder the e.ecutive presidential system, the
incumbent holds all the trumps. The decision to declare elections rests not
%ith an independent commissioner o elections. Nor do elections occur
%ithin a constitutionally-mandated period, as it should in a robust
democracy. 1nstead, in sunny :ri 4an&a, election dates are decided based
on an individual horoscope.
;ates are set based on %hether the ates shall avour or ruin one man,
rather than %hen elections are democratically due and %ould best serve the
interests o the nation at large. 1n essence, #resident (a)apa&sa can call
elections on a %him anytime bet%een 1! November 2014 and 1!
November 201<, %hen his second term o0cial ends.
This &ind o open-ended discretion, to be e.ercised by a single individual
%hen it comes to the crucial =uestion o electing the country+s ne.t head o
state, is one o many reasons the movement coalescing to e/ect 'ahinda
(a)apa&sa+s deeat is resolved to ma&e the 6anuary poll all about abolishing
the e.ecutive presidency.

>.ecutive presidency
1t is oten said that #resident 6unius (ichard 6aye%ardene established the
o0ce o the e.ecutive president or himsel and once he %as 7nished, or
men as much li&e him as possible. :ince it %as established, the :ri 4an&an
presidency has been best &no%n or the po%er-hunger and space or abuse
the o0ce tends to create.
;espite the act that it %as created or political aristocracy, in an uncanny
t%ist, no one has %ielded the tools o 6(+s presidency better than 'ahinda
(a)apa&sa, a man e% ever believed %ould ascend the highest o0ce o the
land. ?is presidency has outdone every predecessor because he managed
to use the a%esome po%er o the o0ce to bend every independent
democratic institution to his %ill.
2oupled %ith his *overnment+s triumph over the 4TT> in 200@, this pliancy
has helped the (a)apa&sa regime to consolidate po%er. "t the Aenith o his
popularity in 2010, #resident (a)apa&sa introduced the 1!th "mendment to
the 2onstitution, e/ectively stripping the sole saeguard the 6aye%ardenes
had %ritten into the 1@B! drat setting up the presidency. With presidential
immunity and the removal o the t%o-term limit that a sitting president may
contest, #resident (a)apa&sa entrenched himsel into incumbency,
potentially orever.
1ncumbents have al%ays secured a second term in o0ce C the might o the
presidency and the resources at its command ma&es an incumbent
e.ecutive president a di0cult candidate to beat. The t%o-term limit %as
thereore an important provision in a deeply-9a%ed system.
The &no%ledge that ho%ever rotten an incumbent, ho%ever dictatorial and
abusive, his reign %ould constitutionally end in a ma.imum o 12 years %as
a saving grace even %ithin the e.ecutive presidential system. The t%o-term
limit &ept the people+s democratic impulses strong, )ust as an entrenched,
seemingly unbeatable incumbency %ea&ens democratic %ill and instinct.

:pectacularly badly timed
The suspense and disruption caused by the election that thus ar e.ists only
in the mind o the incumbent e.empli7es the trouble %ith the presidency,
and provides valuable odder to the movement to change the system.
While it o/ers the Opposition a small %indo% o opportunity, the election is
spectacularly badly timed. "ter 7ghting hard to secure a #apal visit in early
6anuary, the regime loo&s %illing to orego the honour i the Datican rules
that the tour is scheduled too near a crucial national election.
:econdly, the ma)or poll %ill be a signi7cant drain on the :tate co/ers at a
time %hen the country can ill a/ord it. The $udget is also li&ely to deliver
economic promises and a bag o goodies by %ay o salary hi&es and price
reductions that the *overnment cannot pay or.
Eet all o these considerations pale in comparison to the purported
&no%ledge o astrologers, %ho vo% the period ater February 201, %ill be
deeply electorally unavourable to the incumbent.

4egal arguments
The Opposition, made up o several political
and apolitical players, appear to be engaged in
mounting =uiet and lo% pro7le challenges to
the incumbent campaign.
>.ceptional legal arguments are presently
being crated and articulated, pointing to %hy
#resident (a)apa&sa cannot contest a third
term in o0ce. Needless to say, the brightest
legal minds articulating and deending these
points %ill stand no chance in the country+s
highest courts, ater the ouster o 2hie 6ustice
:hirani $andaranaya&e in 2013.
1n nearly t%o years since her sac&ing, the
*overnment is yet to receive a single %ord o
censure or a ruling that is not in its avour on
the &ey issues o the day and crucial
undamental rights petitions coming beore :ri
4an&a+s ape. court.
There is little hope thereore that any challenge
mounted against the (a)apa&sa electoral
)uggernaut %ill be ought and %on %ithin the
con7nes o a court o la%. These %ill prove
important challenges to the legitimacy o
#resident (a)apa&sa+s re-election campaign,
but they are unli&ely to put a dent in his
determination to go ahead %ith the poll.

(anil+s presidential ambitions
The main opposition 3nited National #arty
appears to have settled on its leader (anil Wic&remesinghe as the
candidate to ace o/ against #resident (a)apa&sa in a 6anuary election. 1t is
unclear i Wic&remesinghe %ill play %ell as candidate %ithin the broad
Opposition movement orming around the issue o abolition and
constitutional change.
For too long has (anil Wic&remesinghe entertained presidential ambitions.
1t %ill prove an uphill tas& or Wic&remesinghe to earn the movement+s trust
as a candidate ready and %illing to give up o0ce %ithin the si.-month
timerame the drat constitutional amendment %ill set in stone.
The *overnment appears to have accepted Wic&remesinghe as #resident
(a)apa&sa+s most li&ely adversary rom among the Opposition line-up. :tate
media has ramped up the propaganda o/ensive against Wic&remesinghe,
%ho %as biAarrely accused o conspiring to bring about the recent >3 2ourt
ruling liting sanctions on the 4TT> %ithin the >uropean 3nion territories, on
a point o la%.
The (a)apa&sa administration+s &nee)er& reaction in all its propaganda %ars
is to stic& Tiger labels on its political opponents and Wic&remesinghe+s
recent visit to the 35 proved a su0ciently suspicious coincidence or the
:tate spin doctors to commence the o/ensive.
The 3N# has hit bac& hard against the *overnment allegations, calling it a
political gimmic& and pointing out the regime+s o%n ailure to ma&e
submissions during the trial.

(ainbo% alliance
The 3N#, 9ushed %ith its signi7cant gains in the 3va #rovince, may prove
di0cult negotiators in the process to set up a common platorm. The
election proved that any Opposition movement %ill re=uire the 3N# to ta&e
the lead, in order to get any traction against the (a)apa&sa administration.
The 3N# %ill have to be a gracious leader, accommodating o doubts and
aspirations o its other partners in the rainbo% alliance, i it %ants to hold
on to multi-sta&eholder support in the run up to the poll. "t present at least
three drat constitutional amendments are in circulation, and at the heart o
each o them is the abolition o the e.ecutive presidency.
The moderate mon& :obitha Thero+s National 'ovement or :ocial 6ustice,
bac&ed by prominent la%yers 6ayampathi Wic&remaratne #2 and 6.2.
Weliamuna, has presented the most cohesive roadmap to date, %ith regard
to abolition. The 6athi&a ?ela 3rumaya+s 8#ivithuru ?eta&+ maniesto also
includes a 1@th "mendment to the constitution that see&s the restoration o
the rule o la% and a hety curb on e.ecutive po%er.
The &ey tas& beore any Opposition contender or common candidate %ould
be to 7nd a %ay to bring these groups together, by ormulating a broadly
accommodating platorm upon %hich each o these personalities, %ith their
share o electoral support, can gather.

4TT> card
;espite claims about the irrelevancy o candidacy, thereore, personalities
%ill play a &ey role in the 6anuary election.
#resident (a)apa&sa is already the ace o his party+s presidential campaign.
"ter nine years in o0ce, %hat he stands or is already abundantly clear to
the electorate. ?is campaign slogans and themes %ill already be resonating
in the people+s heads, long beore he addresses his 7rst rally. "n Opposition
presidential candidate thereore has a long catch up beore the
campaigning begins in earnest.
Doters may need to get to &no% him, or reac=uaint themselves %ith a
personality, beore he can convince them about %hat he stands or. When
#resident (a)apa&sa plays the 4TT> card and insists that the presidency is
crucial in the battle against separatism, an Opposition candidate %ill have
to convince the electorate that it is not. This is a tough sell, on the best o
days.
The 4TT> bogey has been &ept alive and %ell, li&e a talisman or the regime
against %aning popularity and international challenges on the human rights
=uestions. "ny 3N# candidate %ill carry the party+s baggage about peace
tal&s and the 2ease7re "greement o 2002 %ith the Tigers.
3ndoubtedly, the 4TT> card is playing less e/ectively than it did once, as
the electorate is %eighed do%n by economic concerns and rampant
corruption and *overnment e.travagance. $ut it %ill be incumbent upon an
opposition challenger to ta&e the o/ensive on this rhetoric and push bac&
hard against *overnment allegations.
5aru 6ayasuriya commenced this pushbac& %ith his hard-hitting statement,
accusing the regime o nursing and nurturing e.-4TT> members %hile
oisting Tiger labels on its political opponents.

O/ensive politics
1n the 7ght to the death that this election is promising to be, the gloves %ill
come o/ very early in the game. The battle may %ell be decided on ho%
=uic&ly the Opposition can begin playing o/ensive politics.
The 3N# learned this lesson in the 3va #rovincial election held last month.
"ter years o playing deensive politics, its 7rst and only attempt to ta&e
the 7ght bac& to the *overnment paid heavy dividends.
The Opposition candidate, %hether Wic&remesinghe or other%ise, %ill be
re=uired to battle it out the %ay ?arin Fernando battled the 3#F" in 3va.
The candidate %ill have to pro)ect himsel a %inner, long beore the election
is declared. 1n essence, he %ill have to play #resident (a)apa&sa+s game C
and he already has a very big head start.