O N P U B L I C P O L I C Y
2014 NO. 4 FALL
T H E H O O V E R I N S T I T U T I O N S TA N F O R D U N I V E R S I T Y
Hoover Digest
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HOOVER DIGEST
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On the Cover
In 1950, American efforts to rebuild Europe
were outgrowing their original ambitions:
feed the hungry, revive trade and currencies in
allied and former enemy nations alike, resurrect industry, and restore stability. Now Soviet
militancy was rising, threatening Europes
fragile security and posing an ideological
challenge. This poster was part of a Marshall
Plan contest meant to persuade Europeans
to choose democracy and open markets and
reject the Soviet appeal. It was part of a larger
war of ideas. See story, page 202.
Director of Washington,
DC, Programs
donald c. meyer
christopher s. dauer
colin stewart
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eryn witcher
ASSISTANT DIRECTORS
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visit the
HOOVER INSTITUTION
online at
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Contents
IRAQ
9
Axis of Folly
The president of the United States proved rash, the former prime
minister of Iraq, arrogant. Why Iraq is teetering. By fouad ajami.
13
Best Frenemies?
As Iraq wobbles, Iran might almost look like a friend. It isnt. By
abbas milani.
16
21
An Army of Revisionists
How quickly we forget our reasons for toppling Saddamand our
politicians forget how they endorsed it. By victor davis hanson.
T H E E C O NOMY
26
31
I N E Q U A LI T Y
35
Rickety Piketty
Economist Thomas Piketty wants to confiscate wealth, but he doesnt
grasp where wealth actually comes from. By richard a. epstein.
42
C A LI F O R N I A
47
51
T H E E N V I R O NMENT
56
H E A LT H C ARE
61
64
72
Bitter Pills
Higher costs, fewer choicesthe Affordable Care Act is becoming
harder and harder to swallow. By richard a. epstein.
P O LI T I CS
78
Affirmative-Action Foibles
The Democratic Party likes racial preferences in college admissions,
but Asian-Americans dont. Might we see a parting of the ways? By
lanhee j. chen.
81
I N T E LLI GENC E
86
91
T H E M I D D LE EAST
98
Imaginary Egypt
Egyptians told themselves a thrilling story about their revolution.
Then the fable ended where it had begun: with a pharaoh in power.
By samuel tadros.
107
112
Clooney of Arabia
Movie star George Clooney found a love match among the Druze, a
sect whose members have seen their own share of drama. By lee smith.
U KR A I N E
122
CHINA
128
A Modern Mandarin
Opening itself to free markets, China has lifted several hundred million people out of poverty. That was the easy part. An interview with
Hoover fellow michael spence. By jonathan schlefer.
I N T E R V I EWS
133
143
Game of Loans
Banking crises are a product of people and strategy, not mysterious forces,
say Hoover fellows charles w. calomiris and stephen h. haber.
By kathryn jean lopez.
V A LU E S
152
155
Moral Debts
The way we deal with our debts involves more than dollars and cents.
It reveals our very character as a people. By david davenport.
158
I N M E M O R I A M: FOUAD AJAMI
163
172
Fouads Gift
Farewell to a friend, a guide, and a storyteller of the Arab worlds
disorder. By charles hill.
H I S T O R Y A N D C UL TURE
178
H O O V E R A R CHIVES
184
202
On the Cover
I R AQ
Axis of Folly
The president of the United States proved rash, the former prime
minister of Iraq, arrogant. Why Iraq is teetering. By Fouad Ajami.
Editors note: This is the last essay by Hoover senior fellow Fouad Ajami to
be published before his death in June. Turn to page 172 for reflections on Dr.
Ajamis life and work.
Two men bear direct responsibility for the mayhem engulfing Iraq: Barack
Obama and Nouri al-Maliki. The US president and the Iraqi prime minister stood shoulder to shoulder in a White House ceremony in December
2011 proclaiming victory. Obama was fulfilling a campaign pledge to end
the Iraq war. There was a utopian tone to his pronouncement, suggesting
that the conflicts that had been endemic to that region would be brought
to an end. As for Maliki, there was the heady satisfaction, in his estimation, that Iraq would be sovereign and intact under his dominion.
In truth, Iraqs new Shiite prime minister was trading American tutelage for Iranian hegemony. Thus the claim that Iraq was a fully sovereign
country was an idle boast. Around the Maliki regime swirled mightier,
more sinister players. In addition to Irans penetration of Iraqi strategic
and political life, there was Baghdads unholy alliance with the brutal
Assad regime in Syria, whose members belong to an Alawite Shiite sect
and were taking on a largely Sunni rebellion. If Bashar Assad were to fall,
Maliki feared, the Sunnis of Iraq would rise up next.
Fouad Ajami was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and co-chair of
Hoovers Herbert and Jane Dwight Working Group on Islamism and the International Order.
Iraqs Kurds were made to feel like beggars at the Maliki table.
There was, not so long ago, a way for Maliki to have avoided all this:
the creation of a genuine political coalition, making good on his promise
that the Kurds in the north and the Sunnis throughout the country would
be full partners in the Baghdad government. Instead, the Shiite prime
minister set out to subjugate the Sunnis and marginalize the Kurds. There
was, from the start, no chance that this would succeed. For their part, the
Sunni Arabs of Iraq were possessed of a sense of political mastery of their
own. After all, this was a community that had ruled Baghdad for a millennium. Why should a community that had known such great power accept
sudden marginality?
As for the Kurds, they had conquered a history of defeat and persecution and built a political enterprise of their owna viable military insti10
Now, even as Assad clings to power in Damascus, Iraqs Sunnis have risen
up and joined forces with the murderous, Al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamic State of
Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), which controls much of northern Syria and the Iraqi
cities of Fallujah, Mosul, and Tikrit. ISIS marauders are marching on the Shiite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala, and Baghdad itself has become a target.
Iraqs leading Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has called on his
followers to take up arms against ISIS and other Sunni insurgents in
defense of the Baghdad government. This is no ordinary cleric playing
with fire. For a decade, Ayatollah Sistani stayed on the side of order and
social peace. Indeed, at the height of Iraqs sectarian troubles in 20067,
President George W. Bush gave the ayatollah credit for keeping the lid on
that volcano. Now even that barrier to sectarian violence has been lifted.
This sad state of affairs was in no way preordained. In December 2011,
Obama stood with Maliki and boasted that in the coming years, its estimated that Iraqs economy will grow even faster than Chinas or Indias.
But the negligence of these two menmost notably in their failure to
successfully negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement that would have maintained an adequate US military presence in Iraqhas resulted in the current descent into sectarian civil war. Iraqs Kurds were made to feel like
beggars at the Maliki table.
TOPPLED: Thirty-foot-tall bronze busts of former Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein once
towered over the grounds of the Republican Palace in Baghdad. A decade after the fall of
Saddam, Iraq is convulsed in sectarian violence, in part because of Nouri al-Malikis refusal
to set up a genuine political coalition to govern his country.
11
Grant Maliki the harvest of his sectarian bigotry. He rode that sectarianism to nearly a decade in power. Obamas follies are of a different kind.
They are sins born of ignorance. He was eager to give up the gains the US
military and the Bush administration had secured in Iraq. Nor did he possess the generosity of spirit to give his predecessors the credit they deserved
for what they had done in that treacherous landscape.
As he headed for the exits in December 2011, Obama described Maliki
as the elected leader of a sovereign, self-reliant, and democratic Iraq.
One suspects that Obama knew better. The Iraqi prime minister had
already shown marked authoritarian tendencies, and there were many
anxieties about him among the Sunnis and Kurds. Those communities
knew their man, while Obama chose to look the other way.
Reprinted by permission of the Wall Street Journal. 2014 Dow Jones & Co. All rights reserved.
12
I R AQ
Best Frenemies?
As Iraq wobbles, Iran might almost look like a friend. It isnt. By
Abbas Milani.
13
coordinate efforts, to save Iraqs government. In Washington, even senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham cant agree on how to criticize the
Obama administration.
Competing, if not conflicting, interests hinder any tactical alliance
between countries in dealing with Iraq.
In Tehran, the radical conservativesconsisting of many in the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and clerics close to Supreme Leader Ali Khameneisee the surging Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) as merely the
concoction of the US-Israel-Turkey-QatarSaudi Arabia alliance that, in
this scenario, is using Salafis to weaken the Islamic Republic of Iran (and
its allies in Syria and Lebanon). Their recommended policy is a repeat of
their past bombast: defeat the Salafists by strengthening the Assad-Maliki
Shiite axis, and help Maliki organize and mobilize Shiite militias to fight
the Sunni insurgency. The radical conservatives chastise Iranian President
Hassan Rouhani and his allies for using the pretext of the ISIS threat
to normalize relations with the United States. One website claims that
ISIS leaders live in Turkey and are protected by the countrys intelligence
agencies.
Tehran and Washington are riven by different views about the sources of
the Iraq crisis and potential solutions.
A different narrative in Tehran is offered by Rouhani and former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjanis increasingly assertive camp. They are
trying to distance themselves from the policies of the Ahmadinejad era by
arriving at a long-term agreement with the six world powers negotiating
with Tehran on its nuclear program (Iran insists work has begun on drafting a final agreement) and by normalizing relations with the West. Britain
has announced it will reopen its embassy in Tehran; Iran and the United
States held direct talks this past summer (not long ago publicly declared as
a taboo); and there are hints about a coordinated effort against ISIS Salafists. More than once, the Rouhani-Rafsanjani camp has declared the Salafi
threat to be rooted in extremism and a threat to all Muslims.
14
Yet in spite of the desire for Iran and the United States for cooperation
in Iraq, there are serious issuesother than the nuclear programthat
render it hard to realize. There are competing, if not conflicting, interests that limit the nature of a tactical alliance between the two countries
in dealing with Iraq. In both Iran and the United States, as well as the
Middle East region, powerful forces would feel threatened by any IranAmerican rapprochement.
Iran wants to keep Iraq together, keep Shiites in power (if not Nouri
al-Maliki), and keep the Revolutionary Guards extensive network of militia and economic presence in Iraq intact. The United States clearly has no
love lost for Maliki and his sectarian politics, is gingerly moving toward
favoring a loosely federated Iraq, and certainly does not want to encourage, or enable, increased Iranian power in Iraq. Moreover, the two countries find themselves on opposing sides of the war in Syria, from which
ISIS has overflowed.
While Rouhani took four daysonly after much cudgeling by conservativesto congratulate Assad on his recent election victory, radical
conservatives in Iran keep insisting that keeping Assad in power is a key
strategic goal of the Islamic regime. In spite of these tensions, the specter
of ISIS haunting the Levant is strong enough to bring the old foes together, if only briefly, to try to put the genie of Salafi extremism back in the
bottle.
Reprinted by permission of the New Republic. 2014 New Republic (www.tnr.com). All rights reserved.
15
I R AQ
16
17
18
no air force to patrol its own airspace; we declined to police that airspace
ourselves. We allowed Syria to go up in flames without even helping to
shield neighboring countries like Iraq from the migration of jihadists into
their territory.
The politicians who serve as the presidents national security aides might
even have indulged in some smug satisfaction to see the Maliki government
begging for the military assistance we offered, and which Iraq declined,
under the Status of Forces Agreement in 2011. Those White House politicians might consider that the Iraqis publicly advised the Karzai government
in Afghanistan not to make the same mistake. But that would require less
swagger and more compassion for the difficulties of democratic transitions
in war-torn countries than this White House team has evidenced.
Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, must be thrilled: so little
invested, so much achieved.
19
The Obama White House is once again telling our enemies all that we
will not do, and failing to convince our allies that we will do much of
anything. The president is so spooked by the prospect of a third American war in the region that he has compromised our security to prevent it.
He ought to have understood that he wasnt starting a third American war
in the regionhe needed to finish the first one.
Reprinted by permission of Foreign Policy (www.foreignpolicy.com). 2014 Foreign Policy Group LLC. All
rights reserved.
20
I R AQ
An Army of Revisionists
How quickly we forget our reasons for toppling Saddamand our
politicians forget how they endorsed it. By Victor Davis Hanson.
21
22
The Bush administration, like members of Congress, underestimated the costs of the war and erred in focusing almost exclusively on Saddams supposed stockpiles of weapons. But otherwise, the war was legally
authorized on twenty-three writs. Most of them had nothing to do with
weapons of mass destruction and were unaffected by the later mysterious
absence of such weaponswhich is all the more mysterious given that
troves of WMD have turned up in nearby Syria and more recently in Iraqi
bunkers overrun by Islamist militants.
Legally, the United States went to war against Saddam because he had
done things such as commit genocide against the Kurds, Shiites, and marsh
Arabs and attacked four of his neighbors. He had tried to arrange the
assassination of a former US president, George H. W. Bush. He had paid
bounties for suicide bombers on the
West Bank and was
23
25
T H E EC ONOM Y
26
From 2003 to 2005, however, the Fed kept interest rates lower than
such a rules-based approach would imply. This contributed mightily to
the housing bubble and the risk-taking search for yield. The Feds discretionary policies since the financial crisisparticularly the large-scale
purchases of mortgage-based securitieshave continued and have also set
a dangerous precedent, according to John Cochrane of the University of
Chicago. Once the central bank is in the business of supporting particular sectors, housingand homeowners at the expense of home buyers
why not others? Cars? Farmers? Exporters?
Digging deeper into history, Lee Ohanian of UCLA found that the
Feds deviations from rules that would produce low and stable inflation
during periods of large changes in regulatory policiessuch as the National Industrial Recovery Act of the 1930soften harmed the economy. He
concluded that economic growth would have been higher had the Fed
stuck to policy rules.
When the central bank followed rules-based policies there was good economic
performance: price stability, steady employment, and output growth.
Michael Bordo of Rutgers noted another central-banking responsibility that the Fed has discharged in an ad hoc and discretionary manner:
to act as a lender of last resort. This, he wrote, has led to instability
throughout the Feds history, most recently in 2008 when it bailed out
Bear Stearns and AIG but let Lehman Brothers go under. Bordo recommends that the central bank adopt a rule to govern when it will make
loans of last resort, and make it publicly known. This could mitigate or
even prevent future crises of the sort precipitated by the ad hoc policies
of 2008.
Marvin Goodfriend of Carnegie Mellon University also noted that
uncertainty about which creditors would be bailed out by the Fed created confusion among policy makers and led to a botched rollout of
the Troubled Asset Relief Program in 2008. He recommends a new
Fed-Treasury Credit Accord which would require a Treasurys only
asset-acquisition policy with exceptions in specific emergency situations.
27
28
29
In my view more is needed. The big swings between discretion and rules
that have characterized Fed historyand the damage this has led tolead
me to favor legislation requiring the Fed to adopt rules for setting policy
on the interest rate or the money supply. The Fed, not Congress, would
choose the rule. But the rule would be public. If the Fed deviated from it,
the Fed chair would be obligated to explain why, in writing and congressional testimony.
Once the central bank is in the business of supporting particular sectors,
housingand homeowners at the expense of home buyerswhy not
others? Cars? Farmers? Exporters?
30
T H E E CO N O M Y
The Foundation
Crumbles
Rising taxes and the unrestrained growth in entitlements are eating
away at the very foundation of our economy: property rights. By
Michael J. Boskin.
Property rights and the rule of law are essential foundations for a vibrant
economy. When they are threatened, or uncertain, the result is inefficiency, rent-seeking, a larger underground economy, and capital flight.
Unfortunately, individual rights to capital, land, and the fruits of ones
labor are threatenedin many cases redistributed from creditors to debtors, from those out of political power to those in power, and especially
from young to old. And a much larger battle is looming.
Nine years ago the Supreme Court gutted the Constitutions public
use restriction on eminent domain (Kelo v. City of New London, 2005),
allowing local governments to take the property of some individuals for
the benefit of others, especially private developers.
In 2009 President Obama trampled the legal rights of secured Chrysler
bondholders and transferred billions of dollars to unions. The Environmental Protection Agency issues 1,500 wetlands compliance orders annually to halt land use. The owner can be stuck in limbo for years pending the agencys final order. In this situation, at least, the Supreme Court
Michael J. Boskin is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a member of
Hoovers Shultz-Stephenson Task Force on Energy Policy and Working Group on
Economic Policy, and the T. M. Friedman Professor of Economics at Stanford
University.
31
recently decided 90 that land owners can sue to block the EPA from
strong-arming regulated parties into voluntary compliance, with fines
of up to $75,000 a day (Sackett v. EPA, 2012).
The biggest future threat will be to the fruits of ones labor. The
unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare are now several times
the national debt; the unfunded liabilities of state and local governments
for pensions and other benefits are in the trillions of dollars and mounting. The panoply of other government programs nonetheless continues to
expand. The result, according to Congressional Budget Office projections,
is that federal spending will reach 36 percent of GDP in a generation. This
implies that taxes will have to double from the current, near-historic average, 18 percent of GDP. All federal taxes will increaseon income, capital
gains, dividends, corporate earnings, employer and employee payrolls.
Left unchecked, many middle-income earners eventually will face marginal tax rates of 70 percent or higherreducing them to minority partners in their own additional work and sundering the value of the investments in their own education.
Taxes explicitly designed for redistributioninstead of revenueare
justified by the fanciful conjecture of writers such as Thomas Piketty.
Either the next generation will be saddled with steeply higher taxes
on their work and savings or the growth in entitlement spending will be
slowed. The political battles over this fundamental question will be waged
between generations, income groups, high- and low-tax states, taxpayers
and retirees, public employees, and recipients of every government service.
The math is unavoidable. The biggest safety-net programs, including
Social Security and Medicare, began under far different economic and
demographic conditions. But as economic growth has slowed and the
population has aged, the ratio of people receiving government benefits
to those paying taxes has been rising rapidly. Spending on these two and
other entitlement programs will gobble up bigger and bigger chunks of
the federal budget. They are already crowding out defense.
Against this unavoidable math is the widespread belief, as the Social
Security Administration notes on its website, among many Americans
32
that their FICA payroll taxes entitle them to a benefit in a legal, contractual sense. Politicians feed this belief but it is false. As far back as
1960 the Supreme Court (Flemming v. Nestor) ruled that benefits can be
changed by Congress at any timeand they have been. The growth of
retirement benefits will have to be slowed. The notion that people not yet
born own much larger Social Security benefits in the future is a legal and
practical fairy tale.
The biggest future threat will be to the fruits of ones labor.
33
ple need to know their jobs, take-home pay, homes, and pensions are not
vulnerable to the threat of a grandiose, inefficient, and overbearing government. In particular, taxation beyond a certain level becomes servitude. And in America, it is the government that works for the people and
not the other way around.
Reprinted by permission of the Wall Street Journal. 2014 Dow Jones & Co. All rights reserved.
34
I N E Q U AL I T Y
Rickety Piketty
Economist Thomas Piketty wants to confiscate wealth, but he doesnt
grasp where wealth actually comes from. By Richard A. Epstein.
35
personal utility. A far better proxy is overall life expectancy. In the United
States that figure has increased by over thirty years per person since 1900,
and by over forty years for African-Americans. A black/white longevity
disparity of fifteen years in 1900 has shrunk to four years today.
Thomas Piketty asserts that overall growth rates are constrained by some
invisible Malthusian hand.
PI TN E Y V. P I K E T TY
Piketty misunderstands the sources of social-wealth creation. Thinking that
capital accumulation drives social inequality, Piketty favors progressive taxes, including a progressive annual tax on capital. This will make it possible
to avoid an endless inegalitarian spiral while preserving competition and
incentives for new instances of primitive accumulation, he writes.
Yet he is oddly indifferent to the virtues of competitive markets and the
damage that monopolies and cartels can inflict on social welfare.
Perhaps Piketty would not have made this fatal mistake if he had read
the opinion of a great, if unappreciated, Supreme Court justice, Mahlon
Pitney, who addressed this issue in the 1915 Supreme Court case of Coppage v. Kansas. At issue in Coppage was whether an employer had a constitutional right to insist by contract that his workers not join a union so
long as they remain in his employ. Pitney held for the employer:
A little reflection will show that wherever the right of private property
and the right of free contract coexist, each party when contracting is
inevitably more or less influenced by the question whether he has much
36
property, or little, or none, for the contract is made to the very end that
each may gain something that he needs or desires more urgently than
that which he proposes to give in exchange. And since it is self-evident
that, unless all things are held in common, some persons must have more
property than others, it is from the nature of things impossible to uphold
freedom of contract and the right of private property without at the same
time recognizing as legitimate those inequalities of fortune that are the
necessary result of the exercise of those rights.
Piketty does not address the nitty-gritty of labor market regulation and
thus misses Pitneys point that gains from trade are necessarily blocked
by taxation and regulation. Even if these fall nominally on the employer,
both sides are hurt from the contraction of the labor market.
The National Labor Relations Act of 1935 is similarly blockheaded
on this point. It contains the outlandish claim that (t)he inequality of
bargaining power between employees...and employers...tends to
aggravate recurrent business depressions, by depressing wage rates and the
37
38
purchasing power of wage earners in industry and by preventing the stabilization of competitive wage rates and working conditions within and
between industries.
The inequality of bargaining power has little role in well-defined competitive markets, where employers have to meet the going wage. The purchasing power of wage earners in industry includes the loss in wages
from workers who are excluded
from union activities. Business
depressions are more likely
to arise in rigid labor markets where firms and
P I K E T T Y S F ATALI SM
Unfortunately, Pikettys preoccupation with inequality blinds him to the
huge hit to growth that comes from union organization and, more generally, from regulations across the labor, product, and real estate markets
that artificially set wages, prices, or the terms of trade. Ignoring these
midlevel institutions leads Piketty to assert that overall growth rates are
constrained by some invisible Malthusian hand so that there
is ample reason to believe that the growth rate will
not exceed 11.5 percent in the long run, no
matter what economic policies are adopted.
What economic nihilism! Countless
systems of direct taxation and regulation
reduce gains from trade in countless
economic areas. One key way
39
to spark growth is to reduce the repressive income and growth taxes Piketty favors because, ironically, he thinks overall growth is not sustainable.
It would also do him a world of good to look more closely at current
schemes of industry-specific direct regulation that result in the inefficient
deployment of capital.
He might, for example, consider the adverse impact on pharmaceutical
innovation that arises from the unduly risk-averse attitude of the Food
and Drug Administration, or the perverse distortions of energy markets
from the equally misguided efforts to subsidize wind and solar energy in
ways that make it harder to take advantage of the enormous advances in
traditional fossil-fuel technologies.
Simplifying the tax code and cutting regulations could easily bump the
growth rate above Pikettys dire predictions.
41
I N E Q UALIT Y
The Obama administration continues to tout the idea of income redistribution, openly encouraging envy of the top 1 percent of earners. Reducing the share received by the highest earners to pay for larger transfers to
the lowest earners has long been a main objective of the administration.
We can expect this theme to be loudly taken up by the mainstream press as
the midterm election approaches: some of us can have more, the argument
goes, if we force others to have less.
Support for the alleged social benefits of setting much higher marginal
tax rates on the highest incomes has now been endorsed by the International Monetary Fund, based heavily on research by two French economists named Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez. The two worked
together on the faculty at MIT, where the current research director of the
IMF, Olivier Blanchard, was a professor. Like Piketty and Saez, he is also
French. France has, for many years, implemented destructive policies of
income redistribution.
Professor Piketty collected data on income distribution from approximately twenty countries over different periods. He concluded that raising
Allan H. Meltzer is a co-chair of the Hoover Institutions Regulation and the
Rule of Law Initiative, a distinguished visiting fellow at Hoover, and a professor
of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University.
42
the tax rate to 60 percent on the highest incomes and redistributing the
receipts to the poor would increase spending and economic growth. The
New York Times declared his book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, one
of the great achievements of modern economics. It put it in a class with
Karl Marxs Das Kapital and John Maynard Keyness General Theory.
This lavish praise seems both wrong and extreme. I agree that in the
past there was a notable positive association between economic growth
and the spread between the shares of income going to the top 1, 5, or 10
percent of the earners and the share going to the remainder. The mistake
is to conclude that narrowing the distribution contributes to growth. The
far more plausible explanation is that economic growth in capitalist countries over the past two centuries contributed to a steep decline in the share
of the top earners.
Simply put, Piketty, President Obama, and the IMF have the causality running the wrong way. Taxing the rich to redistribute did not
produce growth. On the contrary, growth reduced the share earned by
the highest earners.
43
It is impossible for anyone to show that the decline in all seven countries resulted from higher taxes on the highest incomes and redistribution
to the poor. The reason is that the welfare state did not exist in several of
the countries and was relatively small in the others. In the United States,
federal government spending was rarely more than 3 or 4 percent of total
spending in non-war years until after 1930. Old-age pensions didnt start
until the late 1930s, and health care spending did not expand until the
late 1960s.
The mistake is thinking that narrowing income distribution contributes to
economic growth. Far more plausible: growth contributes to a decline in
the share of the top earners.
O P P O R T U N IT Y O R E NV Y ?
The clamor about the rise in the share going to the top 1 percent pays
no attention to the importance of education, skill, and innovation. It is
no accident that most new products and much new music originate in
Hoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
45
the United States. Countries like Canada, Sweden, and Britain contribute
also, welcoming foreign innovation and rewarding those who bring new
ideas to market successfully.
What has worked in the United States for several centuries has worked
well for many other countries in the past fifty years. Once China adopted
capitalist methods, it moved millions out of low-productivity agriculture,
taught them new skills, and raised their wages. Korea sends its young to
learn new skills in the United States. That enabled it to move successfully
from a low-wage provider of unskilled labor to a technically advanced
country with a skilled labor force. And it increased freedom along with
wealth. Other examples are Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwanfree,
capitalist democracies. Add Chile, Peru, and Mexico, and many others.
The growth of the middle class and the narrowing of the income
distribution was largely a result of new skills and higher productivity.
46
CAL I F O R N I A
Economics in a Time
of Drought
Let the water flow where the market, not the government, says it
should go. By Edward Paul Lazear.
Many parts of the country, notably California and Texas, are experiencing
intense drought. Voluntary or mandatory cutbacks in residential water
usage are common.
Yet weather isnt the only problem: government-dictated prices, coupled with restrictions on the transfer of water, have made a bad situation
much worse.
Shortages are generally caused when governments place ceilings on
prices or when they prevent markets from operating freely in some other
way, like restricting trade. Gasoline is a case in point. Thanks to the 1970s
oil shocks, gas became less abundant and prices rose. The US governments response was to put ceilings on gasoline prices, which caused shortages and long lines at gas stations.
The current water situation resembles oil in the mid-1970s. Prices are
determined in large part by state and federal government dictates rather
than by the market. When drought hits, the price to some users, most notably agriculture, is too low to clear the market and shortages result. Ironically,
in addition to eliminating shortages, allowing the market to work would
Edward Paul Lazear is the Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow
at the Hoover Institution, co-chair of Hoovers Conte Initiative on Immigration
Reform, and the Jack Steele Parker Professor of Human Resources Management
and Economics at Stanford Universitys Graduate School of Business.
47
result in prices that are lower than those currently paid by most residential
users. Markets would encourage farmers to sell water to urban users, thereby
increasing residential supply and driving residential water prices down, as
the University of Californias Howard Chong and David Sunding showed in
a 2006 study published by the Annual Review of Environment and Resources.
Government-dictated prices and restrictions on transfers have made a
The price farmers pay for water differs from that paid by urban users,
sometimes dramatically. For example, San Francisco Bay Area residents
obtain much of their water from the Hetch Hetchy reservoir. The pipes
from Hetch Hetchy to the Bay Area intersect the California Aqueduct,
which supplies water both to agriculture and urban areas. Residential
users of aqueduct water in San Diego pay rates that can be more than five
times as high as those paid by the farmers in Kern County.
So if some people, businesses, or localities have rights to water and others would be willing to pay more for those rights, why not trade? Answer:
government controls and lawsuits.
In 2012, the Public Policy Institute of California reported on the morass
of regulations that continue to restrict the exporting of local water to other
communities. Permits are required, which necessitate environmental studies and a lengthy assessment procedure. Statewide water transfers require
approval by the State Water Resources Control Board, which also requires
proof of compliance with the California Environmental Quality Act and
additional proof that the transfer will not injure another legal user.
Finally, even approved transfers are subject to reversal by courts.
Recently the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the US Bureau of
Reclamation violated the Endangered Species Act when it failed to inform
the US Fish and Wildlife Service of plans to renew forty-one long-term
contracts with California agricultural irrigation districts that could harm
the delta smelt, a fish.
To solve Californias water problem, the first step is to let all owners of
water sell their rights with minimal government limitations. This would
ensure that water goes to its highest valued use.
48
49
Second, federal and state agencies that redirect water to environmental use should pay the market price for it. Although there may be good
reasons to ensure that some fish and wildlife be protected, we should
not pretend that this protection is costless. Agencies that divert water
for environmental purposes should be required to budget explicitly for
the lost revenue associated with the decision to divert it for this purpose,
rather than allowing it to be sold at the market price for urban or agricultural use.
The price farmers pay for water differs from that paid by urban users,
sometimes dramatically.
50
CAL I F O R N I A
An End to Pension
Patches
Meaningful ways to mend the Golden States pension-funding gap.
By Carson Bruno.
51
TH E C A L IF O R N IA R U LE
Meaningful reform cannot occur in California until the California
rule is changed. Courts have long determined that state retirement statutes create a contract between the state and its employees. The California rule takes this one step further by creating the contract on the first
day of employment. As California-rule expert and University of Minnesota School of Law scholar Amy Monahan notes in her 2011 paper
on the topic, the California rule makes it so pension benefits for current employees cannot be detrimentally changed, even if the changes are
purely prospective.
This, in effect, means localities or a state operating under the rule cannot adjust pensions for current employees even if only for future hours,
while not touching already accrued benefits. Monahan concludes that this
rule inappropriately curtails the power of the legislature and runs counter
to both legal and economic theory. Roughly 75 percent of attendees at the
Hoover conference strongly agreed that amending the California rule is
necessary to enable meaningful reform.
52
While operating under the rule, California and its localities can enact
only small reformsin a sense, nibbling around the edges. Common
reforms include adjusting or freezing cost-of-living adjustments, eliminating the ability to spike pensionable pay or double-dip salaries, changing
the definition of pensionable pay, and changing benefits for new or future
hires (which just delays solvency for decades).
However, as 80 percent of conference participants indicated, these
alone are not sufficient to address the mounting unfunded liabilities.
For instance, based on estimates from Rauh and University of Rochester economist Robert Novy-Marx, a 1 percent cost-of-living-adjustment
reduction would lower unfunded liabilities by just 9 to 11 percent. And
with each day that passes without meaningful reform, the problem grows:
CalSTRSs unfunded liability grows each day by $22 million.
B E T T E R UN DE R PI NNI NG S
As such, California and its localities need to examine the issue holistically: addressing the current unfunded liability, which itself is daunting as
well as fixing the reasons why the unfunded liability has occurred, that is,
structurally reforming pension systems. While much of the focus has been
on the generosity of pensionsfor instance, in 2012, thirty-one thousand
state retirees collected pensions valued at $100,000 or moremost of the
pension problems in California stem from elected officials and/or pension
boards overpromising and underfunding. Requiring those responsible to
fully honor promises would also help make the generosity of plans more
reasonable.
Another way to establish better financial health of public pension systems is to insist that 100 percent of the actuarially required contributions
(ARC) be made and that a risk-free rate of return be used. The ARC is the
amount necessary to ensure pension systems can meet their annual benefits. As such, not contributing 100 percent (CalSTRS received only 44
percent of ARC in 2013) means the employer is inherently underfunding
the plan.
Currently, pension boards use a rate of return based on the expected
return for their invested assets. For instance, CalPERS assumes a rate of
return of 7.5 percent. Since 2000, however, the actual average annual rate
Hoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
53
of return for the fund has been only 4.5 percent. Moreover, if pensions
are indeed considered guaranteed (that is, riskless), then a risk-free rate of
return is logical. Conference attendees, by a ratio of almost nine to one,
agreed that these two simple steps would be prudent for fiscally stabilizing
pension funds.
However, the main focus for structural reform has been on switching public pensions from defined benefit to defined contribution. In a
defined-contribution plan, the employer and/or the employee contributes
a certain amount to an individual, transferrable investment account. Neither the employer nor the investment fund guarantees a benefit.
A defined-benefit plan, on the other hand, guarantees a previously specified benefit based on a host of criteria. Employers (and to some extent
employees) contribute a certain, but not set, amount to an investment
fund that is structured to ensure sufficient funds to match the promised
benefit amount.
If employers set reasonable parameters when establishing the benefit
formula, use a risk-free rate of return to discount investment cash flows,
and maintain full contributions, defined-benefit plans can be fiscally
sound. Yet the attractiveness of defined-contribution plans is that they, for
the most part, structurally prevent the type of overpromising and underfunding to which defined-benefit systems are vulnerable.
L E A D IN G A N D L E AR NI NG
Even so, 61 percent of the conferences participants did not think that
moving from defined benefit to defined contribution is the only solution.
Conference participants believe that leadership, with public support,
is the key to meaningful reform. In Rhode Island, the Democratic state
treasurer, Gina Raimondo, spent eight months negotiating and discussing
the issue with stakeholders before submitting a reform bill. While these
actions did not create a completely smooth legislative process, the heavily
Democratic legislature overwhelmingly passed the reform bill (5715 in
the lower chamber and 352 in the upper house).
In San Jose, city councilmembers and Mayor Chuck Reed publicly discussed with city residents the fiscal effects of inaction, pointing to closed
libraries or parks and laid-off police officers. Although negotiations with
54
employee unions did not produce an agreement, Reed and the city council
did incorporate some of their concerns into a ballot proposition, Measure
B. Their efforts resulted in 69 percent of voters passing the reform.
In San Diego, a reform proposal that moved the citys non-public-safety
employees from a defined-benefit plan to a defined-contribution system
enjoyed 66 percent support among voters.
The lesson from all these reform efforts is simple: strong leadership
is necessary. Without Treasurer Raimondo, Mayor Reed of San Jose, or
Mayor Sanders of San Diego, reform probably would not have occurred.
Educating the public about the implications of inaction and garnering
public support are just as important.
At a certain point, California and its cities will reach insolvency and
reform will have to occur. It is more a matter of when than whether.
Reprinted from Defining Ideas (www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas), a Hoover Institution journal.
2014 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved.
55
T H E ENVIRONM EN T
Railroading the
Environment
Block the construction of pipelines and more oil gets shipped by
train. That will make spills and accidents more likely, not less. By
Terry L. Anderson.
Its obvious that were going to continue moving crude oil and petroleum products from where they are extracted to where they are needed.
When considering whether to approve pipelines such as the proposed
Keystone XL, therefore, the question has to be: which are safer, pipes or
rail tank cars?
The Keystone XL lingers near death, thanks to the Obama administrations decision to ignore the evidence of a definitive government study and
instead keep listening to environmentalists dubious claims. The consequence will be more political fires in Washington sparked by train derailments in the absence of a pipeline to transport oil more safely.
After a derailment in downtown Lynchburg, Virginia, on April 30,
approximately 30,000 gallons of Bakken crude oil burned or spilled into
the James River. On May 9, a derailment north of Denver spilled an additional 6,500 gallons of oil, which was contained in a ditch before reaching
the South Platte River. Fortunately, unlike in the 2013 derailment in Quebec where a 1.3-million-gallon spill killed forty-seven people and incinerated thirty buildings, no one was injured in Lynchburg or Colorado.
Terry L. Anderson is the John and Jean De Nault Senior Fellow at the Hoover
Institution and the William A. Dunn Distinguished Senior Fellow and former
president and executive director of PERC in Bozeman, Montana.
56
57
58
direct disturbance to the riverbed, fish, aquatic animals and plants, and
river banks. Moreover, between 1992 and 2011, 40 percent of the liquid
spilled from pipelines was recovered.
Putting the debate over the Keystone XL in this context shows the
absurdity of killing the pipeline project. But the Obama administration appears determined to accept environmental arguments that the
pipeline could leak (even though the likelihood is less than with rail)
and that with the extraction and use of oil from Alberta, Canadas
oil sands will increase global warming. On the latter point, the State
Department report again is clear that net carbon emissions wont be
much different with or without the Keystone XLbecause the
59
Canadian tar sands will likely be developed regardless of how the oil
is transported and because trains emit more carbon dioxide than pipelines.
Pipelines carry nearly twenty-five times as much crude oil and petroleum
products as trains do.
60
H E AL T H CAR E
61
H I G H E R P RI C E S
New work by Laurence Baker, Kate Bundorf, and me published in
Health Affairs suggests there are reasons to be concerned with the current
approach. We analyzed data on the health care provided to 3.5 million
people with private health insurance between 2001 and 2007. The data
included the price paid to the hospital each time one of the people was
hospitalized. We could also compute the total number of hospitalizations
per person and the total spent on hospitalizations from the data.
We used this information to construct measures of prices, hospital use,
and spending on hospital care for 639 counties covering about two-thirds
of the US population. We also measured the market share of hospitals that
owned physician practices or were contractually integrated with physicians in each county, and other characteristics of the areas.
We found that increases in the market share of hospitals that own physicians lead to higher hospital prices and spending. We show that the effect
on spending is essentially due to the effect on prices: there was no evidence
that hospital ownership of physician practices leads to higher rates of hospital use.
Thus, our evidence did not show that hospitals integrate simply to pay
doctors to admit more patients. We also found that increases in the market share of hospitals that have looser, contractual relationships with their
62
C A UT I O N A R Y NO TE
There are reasons why our results may not accurately predict the consequences of hospital/physician integration going into the futureand so
may not represent an important criticism of the Affordable Care Act.
First, our analysis is based on historical data. Market conditions may be
different today, as may be the forces driving integration. At least in theory,
the Affordable Care Act seeks to encourage pro-competitive integration in
ways that were not present in our study period.
Second, we may not have controlled for factors that are correlated with
integration but not caused by it; if these factors also lead to higher prices and
spending, we would be blaming integration when something else was at work.
Even so, our study adds a new cautionary note to the Affordable Care
Acts enthusiasm for changing the way that medical care is organized in
the United Statesand a new challenge for health policy.
As J. Thomas Rosch, a former member of the Federal Trade Commission, points out, the Shared Savings Program might end up enhancing
market power over the privately insured so much that it leads to higher
costs and lower qualityprecisely the opposite of its goal.
If this comes to pass, it will be another example of how even health care
reforms with the best of intentions are subject to the law of unintended
consequences.
Reprinted by permission of Investors Business Daily. 2014 Investors Business Daily Inc. All rights
reserved.
63
H EALT H C ARE
The disgraceful state of the health system for Americas military veterans
is finally being exposed. In our Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals, veterans
suffer because of shamefully long waits before receiving important medical care. Relying on an internal audit ordered by the White House, the
Associated Press reported that more than fifty-seven thousand patients
are still waiting for their appointments ninety days after requesting them.
Bureaucrats apparently covered up the facts, and some staff members even
falsified records to earn personal bonuses.
Americans should recognize the importance of these revelations. Such
scandals serve to vividly remind everyone of the personal consequences
of allowing the government to fully control health care. But the circumstances should not have been a surprise. While such waits are otherwise
unheard of in the health care system of the United States, they in fact
typify the very systems held up as models for US reforms by supporters of
ObamaCare.
Even though the facts have been thoroughly documented by governments running nationalized health systems and in renowned scientific and
medical journals, it is puzzling that the shocking waits for care in those
systemswhether for specialist appointments, heart surgery, stroke treatScott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at the
Hoover Institution and a member of Hoovers Working Group on Health
Care Policy.
64
OU T R A GE O U S D E LAY S I N B R I TAI N
Last year, Britains National Health Service (NHS), the paradigm of government-controlled health care, turned sixty-five and officially entered senior
citizenship. As opposed to the celebration that might have been expected,
headlines in the British press documented scandalous patient care, shameful
waiting lists, catastrophic hospital practices, and financial debacles.
Access to medical care has been so poor for so long in the NHS that
the government was compelled to issue an NHS Constitution in 2010
wherein it declared that no patient should wait beyond eighteen weeks
four monthsfor treatment after a referral from a general practitioner.
While NHS England officially states that the laughably long wait of eighteen weeks to initiate treatment is being met, as of February 2014 more
than fifty thousand patients had waited more than those eighteen weeks
after referral. In Scotland, as reported last May, more than 10 percent of
patients were still waiting more than eighteen weeks for their treatment to
beginfour months after being referred by their doctors.
Long delays for treatment typify the very systems held up as models by
ObamaCare supporters.
Even more shocking is the recent decree from the comptroller and auditor general of Englands Department of Health: NHS England introduced zero tolerance of any patient waiting more than fifty-two weeks (for
treatment after doctor referral), for which trusts face a mandatory fine of
5,000 for each patient doing so. Yes, waiting more than one full year for
treatment is apparently a possibility in the NHS.
Despite the UK governments repeated laws and decrees, more patients
than ever are now on waiting lists, and the NHS is failing to deliver on
its most basic promises to the taxpayers. In April 2014, hospital waiting
lists soared to their highest point since 2006, with 2,993,108 patients in
England on waiting lists for treatment. Figures for July 2013 showed that
508,555 people in London alone were waiting for operations or other
65
treatment to beginthe highest total for at least five years. Almost 60,000
more patients were waiting for treatment at the capitals thirty-four NHS
hospitals than one year before.
Paradoxically, America has been doubling down on government authority
over health care just as more and more European governments have been
forced to address their unconscionable waits.
In October 2013, the median wait time in Englands NHS for hospital
inpatientspatients sick enough to require hospital admissionwas a
staggering nine weeks to begin treatment, a full two months after doctor
diagnosis and referral. For outpatients, median waits were also markedly
higher in October 2013 than a year earlier. Paul Smith, a senior research
analyst at the Nuffield Trust health think tank, said to the Guardian that
this is hardly surprising. Waiting times are a good barometer of the general health of the NHS.
In its characteristic mode to allow itself significant latitude to meet its
own targets, the NHS years ago cynically set a goal specifically for cancer
patients. They specified that 85 percent of patients should wait no more
than sixty-two days to begin their first definitive treatment after an urgent
referral for suspected cancer from their GP. Yet, in the fourth quarter of
201213, according to NHS Englands National Statistics, 19.4 percent
of lung cancer patients, 22.2 percent of colon cancer patients, and 17.4
percent of urological cancer patients were not treated within two months
after urgent referral. The Welsh government also reported their NHS is
still failing to treat 813 percent of the most urgent cancer cases within
sixty-two days. Indeed, in data from England released last spring, for those
referred for urgent treatment after being diagnosed with suspected cancer, that low expectation target time was breached by assessing all cancer
patients. More than 15 percent of patients waited more than sixty-two
daystwo full monthsto begin their first definitive treatment after an
urgent referral for suspected cancer from their GP.
Perhaps it should be no surprise that the United Kingdom has far worse
cancer survival rates than the United States.
66
Foreshadowing what we now know about our own VA system, the BBC
uncovered scandalous news last year: many patients initially assessed as
needing surgery were subsequently recategorized by the hospital so that
they could be removed from waiting lists to hide the already unconscionable delays. Royal College of Surgeons President Norman Williams, calling
this outrageous, publicly charged that hospitals are cutting their waiting lists by artificially raising thresholds. Meanwhile, Englands National
Audit Office reported in January 2014 that records of waiting times are
riddled with inconsistencies and errors, raising significant doubts about
published data for the NHSs performance on the eighteen-week target.
According to a recent House of Commons report, nearly one-third of
NHS patients had no recorded wait times whatsoever, and an additional
26 percent were frankly inaccurate.
Perhaps it should be no surprise that the United Kingdom has far worse
cancer survival rates than the United States.
Adding to those indefensible facts is a long list of scandals in NHS hospitals that were epitomized in 2013 by the Mid Staffordshire Trust debacle,
in which 400 to 1,200 neglected and abused patients died in squalid and
degrading circumstances. Although virtually unreported by US media, the
2013 Francis report, consisting of more than a million pages and sixtyfour thousand documents and costing British taxpayers about $20 million,
caused widespread outrage in Britain. While forcing the resignation of the
NHS chief, the report officially called out the insidious, negative culture in
the NHS, characterized by a tolerance of unacceptably poor standards and
patient neglect along with a preoccupation with cost-cutting, targets, and
processes, all the while losing sight of its fundamental responsibility to provide safe patient care. The parallels to Americas VA system are undeniable.
P RI V A T E C OV E R AG E I N SWE D E N
Paradoxically, America has been doubling down on government authority over health care with the Affordable Care Act just as more and more
European governments, including Denmark, Britain, Finland, Ireland,
Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Sweden, have been forced by
Hoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
67
public outcry to address the unconscionable waits for care by introducing new laws. But it is even more essential for American voters to realize,
and for our government leaders to acknowledge, what other countries
are beginning to recognize all over the world. These governments have
started to understand that the cure for their failed nationalized health
systems is a shift to privatization. And citizens under government-dominated health systems are increasingly circumventing their own systems,
pursuing private health care to solve the uniformly poor access to care
and limited choices.
68
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B E TT ER C HO I C E S AND ACCE SS
In England, the overwhelming majority of financially successful people now
avoid the NHS, the system still naively cited by many as the model for US
health reform. About six million Britons now buy private health insurance,
including almost two-thirds of those earning more than $78,700. More than
50,000 Brits travel out of the country per year, spending $250 million to
receive medical care, because of lack of access. According to the Telegraph, the
number of people paying for their own private care is up 20 percent since the
previous year, with about 250,000 now choosing to pay for private treatment
out of pocket each yeareven though they already pay for NHS insurance.
None of the key goals for health reform in America requires the
government to directly provide insurance or health care itself.
In the wake of the current VA scandal, President Obama has the opportunity to reach a grand consensus on health care reform, despite the sharp divisions on the issue in the nation. Just as in every country with a nationalized
health system, the truth is becoming obvious for all Americans who bother
to look. Whether you are a veteran with VA care, a poor person under Medicaid, a senior relying on Medicare, or a member of the middle class under
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ObamaCare, being insured is not the same as having access to medical care.
The president offered a ray of hope when his administration recently backed
away from a plan to reduce affordable private coverage options inside Medicare, options that all Medicare beneficiaries enjoyed before the law.
The bottom line: being insured is not the same as having access to
medical care.
Allowing our veterans to use private care with government funding was a
more direct action to improve choices and timely access to medical care by
expanding private care choice. The next step for the president is to do the same
for the most vulnerable, the low-income Americans and their families. Rather
than expanding traditional Medicaid at a cost of nearly a trillion dollars over
the decade, our elected officials should consider something far bolder: add a
premium support option for beneficiaries, offering financial assistance instead
of traditional Medicaid insurance for people to choose among private plans.
But there is an even more fundamental point that should be appreciated. Frankly, none of the key goals for health reform in Americareducing health care spending, expanding access to affordable coverage, preserving personal choice and portability of coverage, promoting competition in
insurance markets, and maintaining the excellence of medical care and
innovationrequires the government to directly provide insurance or
health care itself. Lets hope President Obama and the polarized Congress
have the courage to truly lead with creativity, by seizing the opportunity
to facilitate access to Americas private health care. Perhaps a genuine consensus can be achieved after all.
Reprinted from Defining Ideas (www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas), a Hoover Institution journal.
2014 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved.
Available from the Hoover Institution Press is In Excellent
Health: Setting the Record Straight on Americas Health
Care, by Scott W. Atlas. To order, call 800.888.4741 or
visit www.hooverpress.org.
71
H EALT H C ARE
Bitter Pills
Higher costs, fewer choicesthe Affordable Care Act is becoming
harder and harder to swallow. By Richard A. Epstein.
An old saying in the garment business says, You cant make up in volume what you lose in money on each piece. We could say the same
thing about the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA).
President Obama thinks that the sudden surge in enrollments to about
eight million people means the repeal debate is and should be over. I
dont think so.
The ACA has just begun its maiden voyage. Enrollment is only the first
step. A sound evaluation of the program must explain how, over its entire
life cycle, it can overcome all the theoretical objections about its design.
That will at a minimum require solid knowledge of how this program is
going to work, year in and year out. With sustainability as the key test,
any such judgment depends on the implementation of the basic structure,
the ACAs arcane rules, and the behavior of insurers, covered firms, and
individuals under the new rules.
In addition, it is critical to keep separate the ACAs distinct components. There are all sorts of ways to keep young adults on their parents
policies until they are twenty-six, to improve Medicare reimbursement
systems, to extend (wisely or not) Medicaid, and to deal with pre-existing
Richard A. Epstein is the Peter and Kirsten Bedford Senior Fellow at the
Hoover Institution and a member of the steering committee for Hoovers Working Group on Intellectual Property, Innovation, and Prosperity. He is also the
Laurence A. Tisch Professor of Law at New York University Law School and a
senior lecturer at the University of Chicago.
72
conditions, without also turning the private individual and employer market upside-down.
Yet the ACAs centerpiecethe individual and employer mandates
disrupts the market in major ways. Both of these do (or at least did)
impose a play-or-pay requirement on the provision of health care. Under
the original ACA approach, either you obtained minimum essential coverage, as defined by the ACA, or you had to pay a tax or a penalty to the
government for failing to meet that requirement.
Its odd for the president to insist on the sustainability of a plan whose
key provisions have been temporarily shelved because they threatened to
destabilize the market.
T HE M E A S UR E O F SU CCE SS
It is odd for the president to insist on the sustainability of a plan whose
key provisions have been temporarily shelved because they threatened to
destabilize the overall market. Indeed, the current information indicates
Hoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
73
that these built-in difficulties are far from being solved even as the president takes his premature victory lap.
If we judge ObamaCare by the social gains and losses it generates, the
enrollment figure of eight million tells us nothing. We must know the full
set of benefits and costs before making any judgment as to the desirability
of the plan.
The centerpiece of minimum essential benefits will be a constant thorn
It is not enough, therefore, to claim victory by saying individual signatories are better off from taking the planassuming, as is still unclear,
that these signatories will fork over the required premiums. It is also
necessary to add back in the handsome federal subsidies they received
on joining the plan. These subsidies introduce market distortions, so
the total cost (both payment and subsidy) of joining the plan exceeds
the private benefit to the plan member. Extended over a broad population, these subsidies add up to tens of billions of dollars now and into
the future. Given that a large, if undefined, fraction of these new public
enrollees were evicted from their private health care plans, the net effect
is that taxpaying for-profit programs are out, and tax-subsidized government bureaucracy is in.
Throw on top of this the huge government cost of setting up exchanges
and churning out and enforcing endless public regulations, and the old
joke from the garment industry takes on new life. The social losses could
well increase with each new member who signs up.
WH O W IL L S IG N U P?
That anxiety only becomes greater when adverse selection is put on the
table: on average, will the sick population sign up more? Everyone stresses
the need to recruit and retain high numbers of young people, between
eighteen and thirty-four years old, to subsidize the older plan members.
Right now, the estimates are that about 28 percent of health care subscribers are in that young group, but the ideal number for plan balance is
estimated at 40 percent.
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MCT/Andre Chung
TAKING THE PLUNGE: Tania Ruiz helps Jose Morales, 23, of Washington, DC, as he considers signing up for health care. The long-term success of the Affordable Care Act is highly
dependent on recruiting and retaining high numbers of young people to subsidize older plan
members. Currently, about 28 percent of health care subscribers are between eighteen and
thirty-four, but the ideal number for plan balance is about 40 percent.
75
declines are all attributable to the ACA, whose key provisions on individual and employer plans have yet to take effect. Some long-overdue
Medicare reforms, an overall decline in employment during the recession,
and modifications of standard insurance policies offer more likely explanations for the change.
But now that the act is taking hold, reports speak of a recent surge
in health care expenditures, some of which are attributed to the expanded
ACA coverage. These increased expenses will work themselves into next
years premiums, which could lead to the adverse-selection death spiral. If
it does, we can expect yet another round of belated and ad hoc government interventions.
LE SS C ON S UM ER -FR I E ND LY
The flap over the enrollment rates should not, moreover, obscure the
many structural flaws in the ACA. Its centerpiece of minimum essential benefits will be a constant thorn in the long-term operation of the
system. That comprehensive list contains benefits not currently found on
even the most expensive voluntary plans, a strong indication that they are
worth less to consumers than they cost.
Higher costs and fewer choices are not a recipe for long-term success.
The money to fund these benefits has to come from somewhere. But
where? One early casualty of the overall system is the presidents nowforgotten pledge that if you like your current health care plan, you can
keep it. But the choice of physicians and hospitals is an expensive perk,
albeit one highly valued by consumers. However, because legislation sets
out a comprehensive list of required services, insurers will have to scramble to identify other ways to economize. Typically, that requires limiting
physician choice and the number of secondary and tertiary care centers
to which patients can go. The upshot is that the new plans will be less
consumer-friendly than earlier ones that gave greater choice in the overall
mix of benefits provided. Still, the government plans will get high levels of
new enrollment in part because they cut out by law the private plans that
people would prefer to buy with their health care dollars.
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The president constantly derides his critics for their unwillingness and
inability to come up with any viable alternative to the ACA. But this
is false. The ACA designers ignored efforts to reduce regulations that
could have increased competition in the health care market. They took
no steps to permit interstate sales of private insurance or to relax licensing
requirements to allow large retailers to provide general health care services.
Instead, they opted for compulsion backed by a bevy of special taxes and
fee regulations. Higher costs and fewer choices are not the recipe for longterm success.
The president may not understand these fundamentals right now, but
he will when the system comes crashing down around him in the months
and years to come.
Reprinted from Defining Ideas (www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas), a Hoover Institution journal.
2014 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved.
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P O L IT IC S
Affirmative-Action
Foibles
The Democratic Party likes racial preferences in college admissions,
but Asian-Americans dont. Might we see a parting of the ways? By
Lanhee J. Chen.
A recent effort to reinstitute affirmative action in admissions to Californias public colleges and universities was defeateddemonstrating the
political power of Asian-American voters and challenging the conventional wisdom about their partisan loyalties.
The defeat is a reminder that Asian-Americans can have a decisive impact
on political and policy-making processes. Perhaps more important, it suggests that if education is a key issue that drives Asian-American voters, the
Democratic Party may not be able to rely on their support in the future.
In 1996, California voters passed Proposition 209, which banned the
consideration of race, ethnicity, or gender in state public employment and
higher education. Last spring, Assembly Speaker John A. Prez (D-Los
Angeles) tabled a proposed constitutional amendment, known as SCA
5, that would have restored the use of affirmative action in admissions to
the states public institutions of higher learning. Prez went against the
vast majority of Democratic legislators, as well as many ethnic-identity
groups traditionally supportive of Democrats, when he effectively killed
the amendment.
Lanhee J. Chen is the David and Diane Steffy Research Fellow at the Hoover
Institution, a member of Hoovers Conte Initiative on Immigration Reform, and
a lecturer in public policy and law at Stanford University.
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PO L I T I CS
At some point in a second term, presidents run out of steam and journalists run out of news. For Barack Obama and the White House press corps,
that moment might have come last spring when CNN ran the breathless
headline Obama Goes for a Walk.
Actually, President Obama did more than head out for a surprise stroll
on the National Mall. He also flew up to Cooperstown, New York, to
become the first sitting president to take in the National Baseball Hall of
Fame and Museum. And that was three days after he surprised a group of
Washington-area Little Leaguers with an impromptu visit (actually, more
premeditated than it appeared) at an afternoon practice.
You may ask: when did our chief executive fall in love with the
national pastime? This is a president more closely associated with basketball and golf. It could be as innocent as it appears: Obama was in
Cooperstown, White House officials said, simply to pitch international
tourism. As for the Little League stop: whats not to like about a photo
op with ten-year-olds?
Then again, there might be more at play.
Early in his first term, Bill Clinton had an image problem. In 1993, the
newly elected president (Clinton was forty-six years old at the beginning
of his first term; Obama was forty-seven) liked to go for jogs around town.
But the camera didnt like what it saw: Clinton huffed and puffed. His
clothes were hardly flattering. His gait was neither confident nor athletic.
Bill Whalen is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.
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ing up to an NBA culture fueled by the likes of Beyonc and Jay-Z and
seen as overly hip-hop.
P L A Y I N G F OR TI ME
Unfortunately, there are two problems with Obama championing baseball. The first is that among modern presidents he has the least connection
to the game. Obamas predecessor, George W. Bush, was a junior-varsity
relief pitcher at Yale who went on to own a share of the Texas Rangers.
The highlight of the Bush 43 presidency? It might be taking the mound
at Yankee Stadium before Game 3 of the 2001 World Series and throwing
a letter-high strike.
As for Bill Clinton, to this day he can wax eloquent about growing up
in Arkansas and listening to the exploits of Stan Musial on the Cardinals broadcasts, courtesy of KMOX radio, the voice of St. Louis. His
predecessor, George H. W. Bush, was the starting first-baseman on the
Yale varsity squad that participated in the 1947 College World Series
(the 2014 Yale squad dedicated its season to the forty-first president).
Ronald Reagan re-created Chicago Cubs games for his Midwestern
audiences and, of course, played Grover Cleveland Alexander in 1952s
The Winning Team.
And Barack Obama? He didnt grow up playing the game or watching
it. Conservatives have taken him to task for shaky knowledge and
an even shakier throwing style.
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On the field and in the White House Press Room, the defense has
its holes. Then again, the president plays a lousy shortstop, and not
just because hes left-handed. Obama easily moves to the left, but not
so to his right. Thus a lot of double-play chancessay, an energy deal
that gives Republicans their pipeline in return for more renewables
go unturned.
H O T S T R E A K N O MO R E
Baseballs grueling 162-game schedule may be the toughest test in professional sports. Likewise, eight years in the White House is a test of physical
and mental endurance. In baseball, its not complicated: a team gets hot
for forty or fifty games and avoids long losing streaks the rest of the way.
But not so this White House.
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Its hard to remember a hot streak other than the heady early days after
2008s victory, when Congress was on the same page. The past four years?
On the mound, too many balks (the Syrian red line), wild pitches (forever blaming Fox News), and free passes (Vladimir Putin). At the plate,
too many swings and misses (Middle East peace overtures).
This president is really more of a basketball and golf guy.
President Obama knows what its like to come up short on the diamond. In 2010, he was booed as he took the mound at Nationals Park.
Heres hoping he gave Cooperstown a good look: unless he shakes up the
lineup and starts playing the game at a higher level, his presidency wont
be remembered as Hall of Fame material.
Reprinted by permission of Real Clear Politics. 2014 RealClearPolitics. All rights reserved.
85
I N TELLIGENC E
Michael Kinsley, in his New York Times review of Glenn Greenwalds book,
No Place to Hide: Edward Snowden, the NSA, and the U.S. Surveillance
State, made the following claims about leaks of national security secrets:
The question is who decides. It seems clear, at least to me, that the private
companies that own newspapers, and their employees, should not have
the final say over the release of government secrets, and a free pass to make
them public with no legal consequences. In a democracy (which, contrary
to Greenwalds opinion, we still are), that decision must ultimately be
made by the government. No doubt the government will usually be overprotective of its secrets, and so the process of decision-makingwhatever
it turns out to beshould openly tilt in favor of publication with minimal delay. But ultimately you cant square this circle. Someone gets to
decide, and that someone cannot be Glenn Greenwald.
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for publication of the SWIFT story in 2006) and even weaker (and weakening) legal constraints in practice. We have been moving toward this
system of journalistic hegemony for a while, and the trend has been exacerbated by digital technology and the globalization of media.
The government has enormous control over its secretsit creates them,
it stores them, it decides how widely they are disseminated behind walls of
secrecy, it can punish its employees for mishandling secrets, it can create
secrecy defenses, and the like. But once a secret is out, the fact is that the
pressor, more accurately, whoever holds the secret outside the governmentdecides whether to publish.
I think Kinsley is also wrong about the normative question of who
should decide. The government should not have the final say about which
of its secrets is published. Government action undisclosable to the American public is presumptively illegitimate. We tolerate secrecy to some degree
because it is necessary for national security. But such secrecy runs the risk
of getting out of control, and of fostering illegal or illegitimate action, or
simply action that the American people do not approve of. The government, like all institutions, is imperfectself-interested, myopic, underinformed, biased, prone to mistakes, motivated by glory and power, and so
on. If the government had the final say on its secrets, it could define the
world of secrecy as broadly as it wanted, in a self-serving way, and shield
its actions from a democratic (and judicial) checkan especially dangerous prospect during endless war where the claims of secrecy are greater.
The people have effectively decided that some degree of leaks is
necessary to the proper operation of secret government.
But if the government cannot have the final say, who does? The essential problem is that journalists (like all individuals and institutions) are
biased too. They are self-interested, myopic, underinformed, nonexpert
about national security, biased, prone to mistakes, and often motivated in
their publication decisions by fame and profit. Kinsley makes this point
(and to my astonishment, many journalists, including, apparently, Greenwald, do not see itI am always amazed that journalists who insist on the
need for a robust press to expose the folly of the self-serving institutions
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DPA/Soeren Stache
are blind to their own self-serving interests). Kinsley thinks that between
the self-serving government and self-serving journalists, the government,
supported by the people, should have the final say.
One problem with Kinsleys conclusion is that it pushes to government
absolutism on secrets in the name of democracy, and yet the people cannot judge their governments secret actions. Yes, the people have approved
through law a system of checks and balances behind the wall of secrecy,
but that does not suffice. Many leaks over the past decadeon interrogations, drones, and surveillance, for examplehave led the people to alter
the course of government action. If the government had the final say, these
and dozens of other reforms and corrections never could have occurred.
Especially in an era of endless war, the government should not decide as a
final matter what the people know.
So leaks of secrets will occur, and they are sometimes normatively
appropriate. But of course this necessary check on government leads to all
sorts of problems. For secrecy too is sometimes necessary and appropriate,
and journalists sometimes, perhaps often, publish secrets that cause enormous harms that outweigh any conceivable benefit from the perspective
of democratic governance.
How to resolve this paradox? The answer, I think, lies in two simple
propositions: (1) The government could do much, much more to protect
secrets, including cracking down harder on journalists, but (2) it doesnt
do so because the American people dont want it to.
As noted, the government still has enormous control over how secrets are
made and protected. It could create many fewer secrets, and it could protect
them better. It doesnt do so in part because it sometimes benefits from
the porous secrecy system. But even while it benefits from the system, the
government could in theory crack down much harder, not just on leakers
but also on the press. First Amendment precedents permit punishment of
journalists for publication of national security secrets and allow the government great leeway in forcing journalists, on penalty of contempt, to reveal
their sources.
So much is true in theory. But in practice, legal and political norms are
making it harder and harder for the government to punish journalists in
these ways for disclosing secrets. Congress has done nothing to make it
SCRUTINY: German artist Oliver Bienkowski projects the words NSA in da House on the
facade of the US Embassy in Berlin in July. Arguably the public has decided that some
degree of leaks is necessary to the proper operation of secret government in endless war,
even though the toleration of the leaks itself produces many harms.
easier for the executive branch to pursue the press, and has been threatening a shield law for a while.
In short, the government, despite its huffing and puffing about leaks,
has done very little, especially against journalists, to stop them. To the contrary, it has largely tolerated the massive leaks of the past decade, including
the extensive Snowden leaks. As I wrote in Power and Constraint:
Underlying this persistent restraint is a recognitionbased in part on politics and in part on a powerful constitutional traditionthat press coverage
of secret executive branch action serves a vital function in American democracy, even though the press often miscalculates the harm of publishing secrets
and thus often harms national security. Some degree of abuse is inseparable
from the proper use of every thing; and in no instance is this more true than
89
Contra Kinsley, the demos has effectively decided that some degree of
leaks is necessary to the proper operation of secret government in endless
war, even though the toleration of the leaks itself produces many harms. The
government could change the system, it could do more against journalists,
but right now all the evidence is that the government does not think it has
political support for such a crackdown. Kinsley might not accept this. He
might be arguing that the equilibrium should be changed. But it is he who
is out of step with the people on that question, at least right now.
Reprinted by permission of Lawfare, a project of the Harvard Law School/Brookings Project on Law and
Security. 2014. All rights reserved.
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I N T E L L I G E N CE
In Snowden We Trust?
Never
Self-appointed crusaders, no matter how clever or articulate, must
never get to decide which secrets our government can keep. By
Benjamin Wittes.
Lets give Edward Snowden his due: he did himself a lot of good in his
interview with NBCs Brian Williams last May. He presents well, coming across as earnest, thoughtful, and intelligent. There is no manic
gleam in his eye, no evident hatred of his country. He is well-spoken
and articulate. He presents his own case more compellingly than does
Glenn Greenwald, who speaks with a barely suppressed rage much
of the time and an altogether unsuppressed hostility all of the time.
Snowden, by contrast, is cool and measured, his affect cerebral. Where
Greenwald and Julian Assange talk about the NSA as an evil monolith, Snowden talks about how he misses his former colleagues, whom
he regards as good people. He gamely objects to their vilification. I
have no doubt that his performances move many viewers, who seeas
he clearly doesnobility in his sacrifices, purity in his motives, and
honor in his decision to defy the law in some larger defense of morality
as he sees it.
Yet I was unmoved by Snowdens performance.
Benjamin Wittes is a member of the Hoover Institutions Jean Perkins Task
Force on National Security and Law, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and co-director of the Harvard Law School/Brookings Project on Law and
Security.
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A G U ES T OF T HE KR E MLI N
However important these questions are, they are not ultimately the
matters that will determine what we should think of Snowden. And
on the more important issues, Snowdenearnestness and allutterly
failed to explain certain stubborn, inconvenient facts that make it hard
to accept him as the figure he claims to be. Some of these facts he did
not challenge at all, as they are too clearly true. Some he challenged
only weakly. And some Williams did not bother to ask him about at
all. The result is a haze over the noble portrait the fugitive paints of
himself.
Snowden talks about how much he misses his former colleagues, whom
he regards as good people. He gamely objects to their vilification.
Lets start with the fact that Snowden ran. Greenwald spends a good
deal of space in his book describing how deeply at peace Snowden was
with the likelihood of spending a very long time in prison. The early
church martyrs were not more blissfully resigned to their suffering
than was the Snowden of Greenwalds booka man whose freedom,
indeed whose very life, was as nothing compared with the publics
need to know the governments interpretation of Section 215 and its
compromise of Angry Birds. Yet Snowden did not, after all, return to
face the consequences of his stand. He has evaded law enforcement for
more than a year. And his explanation of that evasion is hardly that of
a brave man.
You see, Snowden explained in the interview, the law he violated doesnt
allow the defense he would want to put on. So he would probably be
convicted and serve a very long prison sentenceto which we learn he
is not quite so eager to subject himself as Greenwald once admiringly
thought. Snowden, of course, explained that he had an entirely selfless
reason for not wanting to spend decades in prison. Its not that he fears it,
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H A R M A S A G O O D TH I NG
And then theres Snowdens denials that he did any damage. Show me
the evidence, he protested to Williams, that anyone was really hurt by
anything I didand Williams did not call him on the point. But its a
mugs game to acquit oneself of doing harm by simply defining all of the
harms one does as goods. If one calls it democratic debate and sunshine
when one exposes sensitive intelligence programs in which ones country
has invested enormous resources and on which it relies for all sorts of
intelligence collection, the exposure is of course harmless. If one regards
as salutary the exposure of ones countrys offensive intelligence operations and capabilities to the intelligence services of adversary nations,
then of course that exposure does no harm. And if one regards the many
billions of dollars American industry has lost as merely a fair tax on its
sins for having cooperated with NSA, then sure, no harm there either.
Snowden chooses to remain in Moscow because he prefers the protection
of the dictator there to trial at the hands of his own government.
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T H E M IDDLE EAS T
Imaginary Egypt
Egyptians told themselves a thrilling story about their revolution.
Then the fable ended where it had begun: with a pharaoh in power.
By Samuel Tadros.
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This is all the more surprising given the fact that three years earlier,
when the crowds occupied Tahrir Square, both the media and Western
analysts fixed their gazes on those young men and women, often described
as liberals, democrats, moderates, and secular, to the extent of seeing nothing but them. Egypts revolutionaries were hailed as the heroic force that
ended what seemed like an eternal dichotomy between repressive authoritarian regimes and totalitarian Islamists.
Who won Egypt? The army? The Islamists? The revolutionaries?
T HE EN VI S I O NE D E G Y PT O F TH E R E V O L UTION
The feeling of jubilation in Tahrir Square on February 11, 2011, as Omar
Suleiman read Hosni Mubaraks resignation was indescribable. That
night, hardly anyone slept as hundreds of thousands celebrated in the
streets. The next day, they woke up to a question: what happens next? In
reality, no one knew. No one had ever given that question much thought,
let alone prepared for that day. The people had united in their demand for
Mubarak to step down; what would come after was anyones guess.
The accidental coalition that led to the fall of Mubarak was bound to
collapse. The core of the conflict centered on the question of who had
achieved that task: was it the army with its decision to side with the people, the Muslim Brotherhood for providing the troops necessary to turn
a demonstration into a revolution, the ordinary men and women who
suddenly rose after having been apathetic for decades, or the core of the
revolutionariesthose who had struggled for years against the regime and
then demolished the first brick in the regimes wall of oppression?
Hoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
99
The eighteen magical days in Tahrir were not only the culmination of
years of struggle but also their most glorious moment. The world was captivated by their struggle, journalists were flocking to interview them, and
their faces were on the cover of magazines. There was life before Tahrir, and
then there was life in Tahrir. There was the life of failure, frustrations, and
depression, and then there was the life of success, glory, and pride. Many of
them would later speak of those eighteen days in mythological terms: poor
and rich standing side by side, Christian and Muslim, men and women, no
hatreds or differences, millions of Egyptians, all united by love of country.
Soon the square became Egypt, and they became the revolution. The
Egypt of their imagination was a simple one. Egypt was a rich country, yet
its people were poor. The reason for their poverty was Mubarak and his
corrupt regime. Once corruption was endedand in the world they constructed, corruption could magically endEgypt would become prosperous. Legends about Mubaraks wealth were proclaimed. The man had stolen anywhere from $70 billion to $5 trillion. That money, once returned,
would transform Egypt.
Reality was, of course, quite different. There never were the imagined
millions of people in Tahrir Square. The square with all its surrounding
streets could barely hold four hundred thousand to begin with. Most
of the country had not participated in the revolution; they watched the
events on television and had little attachment to the fairy tale. While the
100
revolutionaries would later lament their fate, arguing that their greatest mistake was leaving the square, as Harvard political scientist Tarek
Masoud observed, the truth was strikingly different: You didnt leave the
square. The rest of the country did.
Few Egyptians were saddened by Mubaraks resignation. For most
Egyptians, however, the revolution had achieved its demand. Mubarak
had resigned, and now we can all go back to finding food for our families.
The economy was in trouble, tourists had disappeared, and the security
situation was frightening. The military certainly agreed with that. For the
revolutionaries, however, the revolution was not an event. It was a journey,
and soon one without any identified destination.
The people united in their demand for Mubarak to step down. What would
come after was anyones guess.
Less than forty-eight hours after Mubaraks resignation, a new million-member demonstration was announced, scheduled for February 18,
to celebrate victory and continue the revolution until it achieved all its
demands. Those demands were ever-growing. Some were at least clear:
101
Authority as a concept became scorned. The revolution became a revolution against everything old: tradition, respect, even decency. With their
language becoming more and more abusive and their graffiti more vulgar,
the revolutionaries words soon turned into action. Violence would only
be a matter of time.
The revolution had not been peaceful in the first place, but the cycle
was deteriorating by the day. It became common for the revolutionaries to
publicize the home addresses of those they hated on social media, thereby
endorsing mob action against them. There had been torture in Tahrir during the revolution. Those suspected of being thugs or secret police were
held and beaten. A confinement tent for suspected thugs became a common sight at the center of the revolutionary camp in Tahrir.
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XINHUA/Pan Chaoyue
oust Ahmed Shafiks government, arrest Mubarak and former regime figures, end the state of emergency, fire the attorney general. Others were
nothing more than slogans: social justice, an end to corruption, independence of the judiciary.
One Friday to the next, the demonstrations never stopped. For a while
their methods seemed to be working, as every week brought new development, more arrests of former Mubarak ministers, or news of the government resigning. Beneath the surface, the revolutionaries isolation from
the rest of the country was growing.
While the rest of the country was searching for a return to normalcy, normalcy was the last thing the revolutionaries wanted. Change was no longer
the goal; the revolution itself became the goal. A Trotskyite motto, the permanent revolution, became theirs. The list of individuals and institutions that
belonged to the old order and thus in need of purging continued to grow.
The remnants of the old regime became an all-encompassing designation. Everyone had a place on the list: the bureaucracy, judiciary, police, military, religious institutions, anyone who belonged to the previous ruling party,
the media, businessmen. Little did the revolutionaries ponder the wisdom of
their actions, little did they contemplate the hostility that would result.
HAIL TO THE CHIEF: An Egyptian man salutes during a rally in support of former military
leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, now Egypts president. Three years ago, when the Arab Spring
erupted in Egypt, the news media and Western analysts were enthralled with the young revolutionaries who seemingly ended an eternal dichotomy between repressive authoritarian
regimes and totalitarian Islamists. Ultimately, the revolutionaries failed to create a program
of elections and governance. Egypt again finds itself in a world it knows all too well: faith in
the deliverance offered by one man.
W HO BE T R A YE D TH E R E V O LU TI O N?
Egypt could not be expected to wait in limbo until the revolutionaries
finished their vendetta against the state. The revolution had unleashed
Hoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
103
sions, and when delusions ultimately met reality, they either grew more
delusional or developed into bitterness and disdain. As the months went
by and it became obvious that the majority of Egyptians did not share
the revolutionaries euphoria, the condescension began. Instead of being a
heroic people, Egyptians were now called a slave people, accustomed to
submission to the extent of developing Stockholm syndrome, who didnt
deserve the revolutionaries sacrifices.
In the following months, a Jacobin discourse dominated the revolutionaries worldview. Anyone who did not share their quest for the continuous
revolution was a traitor and thus no true revolutionary. Even old comrades
of the square who advocated caution and compromise were showered with
contempt. Politicians were frightened. If they dared suggest that perhaps
it was time to put an end to the demonstrations game and start playing
politics, they risked being painted as enemies of the revolution.
Politics was not only a game the revolutionaries refused to play; it was
also one they completely disdained. Looking back, that was hardly surprising. The cause of their success in toppling Mubarak was the reason
for their failure thereafter. The appeal to abstract principles and empty
slogans was instrumental in uniting people against a dictator but meaningless as a program of elections and governance.
In time, the revolutionaries came to believe that anyone who did not
share their quest for the continuous revolution was a traitor.
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Today, Egypts former revolutionaries are split between the submissive and
the delusional, between those who have become no more than cheerleaders for a military coup and those who continue to dream of an endless
revolution.
After the revolution and its hopes and disappointments, Egypt finds
itself in a world it knows all too well: faith in the deliverance offered by
one man. The hope is now invested in a former military commander,
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. It is dictatorship by demand, as it were. The country
has been here before. For two decades, from 1954 to 1970, Gamal Abdel
Nasser gave Egypt its moment of enthusiasm and then led it to defeat and
heartbreak.
It would take a leap of faith, and luck beyond what history offers, to
believe that this faith in a redeemer will yield a better harvest than the one
before it.
Excerpted from Reflections on the Revolution in Egypt, by Samuel Tadros (Hoover Institution Press, 2014).
2014 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved.
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T H E M I D D L E E AST
Although the Israeli and Iranian governments have been virtually at war
with each other for decades, the two countries have much in common.
Both are home to some of the oldest civilizations on earth, and both are
primarily non-Arab states in a mostly Arab region. In the 1950s, David
Ben-Gurions Israel and Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavis Iran were bastions of secular nationalism; the shah pushed authoritarian modernization
while Ben-Gurion advanced a form of nonreligious Zionism. Only after
the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran did radical Islam all but eclipse this
secular brand of politics. It held on for much longer in Israel but is now
under threat.
Both Iran and Israel are entering potentially challenging new stages in
their relations with the outside world, and particularly with the United
States. Over the past seven years, United Nations Security Council resoluAbbas Milani is co-director of the Hoover Institutions Iran Democracy Project,
a member of Hoovers Herbert and Jane Dwight Working Group on Islamism
and the International Order, and a Hoover research fellow. He is also the Hamid
and Christina Moghadam Director of Iranian Studies at Stanford University,
where he is a visiting professor of political science. Israel Waismel-Manor is
a senior lecturer at the University of Haifa and a visiting associate professor of
political science at Stanford.
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tions have imposed sanctions on Iran with the aim of halting its nuclear
program. For years, Irans former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad railed
against the Great Satan. But even if Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, is still opposed to reforms, it appears that some officials inside
Iran have finally realized that continued intransigence and bellicosity will
beget only more sanctions and catastrophic economic consequences.
More than 60 percent of Iranians are under age thirty, and they
overwhelmingly believe in individual liberty.
FE A R S OF A C U LTU R AL I NV ASI O N
For more than three decades, Irans oil wealth has allowed its religious
leaders to stay in power. But sanctions have taken a serious economic toll,
with devastating effects on the Iranian people. The public, tired of Ahmadinejads bombastic and costly rhetoric, has replaced him with Hassan
Rouhani, a pragmatist who has promised to fix the economy and restore
relations with the West.
But Rouhanis rise is in reality the consequence of a critical cultural and
demographic shift in Iranaway from theocracy and confrontation, and
toward moderation and pragmatism. Recent tensions between America
and Russia have emboldened some of Irans radicals, but the government
on the whole seems still intent on continuing the nuclear negotiations
with the West.
Iran is a land of many paradoxes. The ruling elite is disproportionately
made up of aged clericsall menwhile 64 percent of the countrys sci108
ence and engineering degrees are held by women. In spite of the governments concentrated efforts to create what some have called gender
apartheid in Iran, more and more women are asserting themselves in fields
from cinema to publishing to entrepreneurship.
Many prominent intellectuals and artists who three decades ago advocated some form of religious government in Iran are today arguing for
popular sovereignty and openly challenging the antiquated arguments of
regime stalwarts who claim that concepts of human rights and religious
tolerance are Western concoctions and inimical to Islam. More than 60
percent of Iranians are under age thirty, and they overwhelmingly believe
in individual liberty. Its no wonder that recently Ayatollah Khamenei told
the clerical leadership that what worried him most was a non-Islamic cultural invasion of the country.
T H E P OW E R OF D E MO G R APH Y
As moderate Iranians and some of the countrys leaders cautiously shift
toward pragmatism and the West, it seems that many Israelis are moving
away from these attitudes. In its sixty-six years, Israel has seen its share of
ideological shifts from dovish to hawkish. These were natural fluctuations
driven mainly by the countrys security situation and prospects for peace.
Israels defense minister called Secretary of State John Kerry obsessive
and messianic.
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FR I EN DS H I P S GR O W LU KE WAR M
In the past, Israel could rely on Western nations and especially the United States to halt such initiatives, but as the fabric of Israels population
changes, and Jewish populations in the West become less religious and less
uncritically pro-Israel, the reflex to stand by the Jewish state, regardless of
its policies, is weakening.
Moreover, as Western countries shift toward greater respect for human
rights, the West Bank occupation is perceived as a violation of Western
liberal norms. A new generation of American Jews see a fundamental tension between their own liberal values and many Israeli policies.
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This, coupled with the passing of the older generation and a high rate
of interfaith marriage among American Jews, means the pro-Israel lobby
will no longer be as large or as united as it used to be. While American
presidents from Lyndon B. Johnson to Barack Obama have declared that
the United States commitment to Israel flows from strategic interests and
shared values, in a generation or two, interests may be all thats left.
An opposite shift is occurring in Irans diaspora. An estimated five million to seven million Iranians live in exile. Their economic, scientific,
scholarly, and cultural achievements are now well known in the United States, thanks to people such as eBay founder Pierre Omidyar. They
are increasingly establishing themselves as a powerful force advocating a
more democratic Iran and better relations with the United States. Just as
a united Jewish diaspora once helped the new state of Israel join the ranks
of prosperous, industrialized states, Irans diaspora could one day play a
similar role for a post-theocratic Iran.
One of Israels most popular singers, the Iranian-born Rita Jahanforuz,
laments on her recent album, In this world, I am alone and abandoned,
like wild grass in the middle of the desert.
If Irans moderates fail to push the country toward reform, and if secular Israelis cant halt the countrys drift from democracy to theocracy, both
Iranians and Israelis will increasingly find themselves fulfilling her sad
prophecy.
Reprinted by permission of the New York Times. 2014 The New York Times Co. All rights reserved.
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T H E M IDDLE EAS T
Clooney of Arabia
Movie star George Clooney found a love match amung the Druze, a
sect whose members have seen their own share of drama. By Lee
Smith.
The tabloids and gossip sheets were delighted when Hollywood heartthrob
George Clooney popped the question to his girlfriend, Amal Alamuddin. The thirty-six-year-old Beirut-born and London-based human rights
lawyer (who speaks French, English, and Arabic) is said to be a good
match for the screen star, but thats a givenClooneys past paramours
have included cocktail waitresses, models, and a professional wrestler. The
more interesting question is whether Clooney is good for the Druze, the
small confessional sect to which his fiance belongs.
The Druze are a heterodox offshoot of Shia Islam that dates back to
the eleventh century. Most of the worlds fewer than a million-and-ahalf Druze live in the Levant. There are roughly 20,000 Druze in Jordan,
125,000 in Israel, 700,000 in Syria, and a quarter of a million in Lebanon,
home to what is perhaps the most influential Druze community, led by
Walid Jumblatt. An opponent of the Syrian regime and onetime pillar of
Lebanons pro-democracy movement who now sees his sect caught in the
middle of a Shiite-Sunni regional war, Jumblatt welcomes the ClooneyAlamuddin announcement as rare good news. He is eager, he wrote me
in an e-mail, to throw a party for the actor at his ancestral home in the
Chouf Mountains.
Lee Smith is a senior editor at the Weekly Standard and the author of The
Consequences of Syria (Hoover Institution Press, 2014).
112
Clooney better acquire a taste for yerba mat, says Rola AbdulLatif, a Lebanese-born Druze who lives in Washington, DC. Mat is
the tea-like beverage that Druze immigrants to Latin America brought
back home with them. But the really big thing is food, says AbdulLatif. Being passionate about food is a way to get close to the hearts
of the Druze.
Abdul-Latif s husband, the non-Druze journalist Hussain AbdulHussain, also has some advice for Clooney. The upside of marrying
a Druze, jokes Abdul-Hussain, is that if he is worried about having
to learn a new religion, he wont. Most of the Druze themselves know
nothing about their faith, so he doesnt have to fear awkward moments
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M ES M ER I Z I NG TO TH E WE ST
The Druze have been known to take their tribal solidarity to violent
extremes. In an incident widely reported in the Lebanese press last
year, a gang of Druze men beat and mutilated a Sunni man who had
eloped with a family member. Afterwards, Jumblatt excoriated his
people. It would be useful after the occurrence of the barbaric act,
he wrote, for the Druze community to hold an internal dialogue over
the future of the sect....Where will the culture of rejecting the other
that breeds intolerance and hate lead? Does that not create a threat to
the future?
Walid Jumblatt often thinks about the future. Where will the Druze find a
place in it?
Perhaps because of the Syrian war now engulfing the region, Jumblatt is
often thinking about the future and where the Druze will find a place in it.
He inherited his role after Bashar al-Assads father Hafez killed his father,
Kemal, in 1977, and hes preparing his own son Taymur to replace him.
Given Jumblatts open contempt for the Syrian president, who regards
him similarly, his end may come sooner rather than later.
Jumblatts, as he likes to remark, dont die in bedlike his father, his
grandfather was assassinated. Even when joking, Jumblatt seems to see
dark clouds ahead for himself and the Druze. You can tell Clooney to
do a movie about the Druze, and he could say that they are the last of the
Mohicans, Jumblatt wrote me. I could be Geronimo.
For such a tiny sect, the Druze have been an object of fascination for
centuries. After Napoleons 1798 conquest of Egypt, Europe was mad for
all things Oriental and the Druzes esoteric wisdomseemingly bred from
115
Al-Hakim and Hamza ibn Ali dispatched letters to various communities in regions where the Druze are now concentrated, encouraging them
to accept the key Druze doctrine, tawhid, the knowledge of the oneness
of God. The first letter is from 1017, when Al-Hakim announced the
opening of the dawa, or invitation to convert. In total there are 106 letters, dealing mainly with spiritual matters, that form the Druzes sacred
text, the Epistles of Wisdom. Perhaps because of political persecution, the
dawa was closed in 1043, at which point the Druze would theoretically
accept no more convertsin practice it appears that there were many
subsequent conversions. In any case, timelines are somewhat beside the
point when it comes to the Druze. They believe that their souls never
die but are reincarnated in the body of another Druze, a conviction that,
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Balkis Press/ABACA/Newscom
117
according to one scholar, gives rise to the Druze saying, We are born in
each others houses.
The apparently ethereal nature of Druze spiritualitywhich, again, the
vast majority of Druze know little or nothing aboutis in sharp contrast
to their worldly reputation. The Druze are stout, hard-minded mountain
men, farmers, and laborers, best known for their fighting skills and political agilityboth of which talents are evidenced by the fact that this tiny
group has survived the violent furies of the Middle East for nearly a millennium.
The Druze are by necessity opportunistica small minority that must
bend with the wind or be broken by it.
The Druze fought the Crusaders for nearly two hundred years and then
resisted the Ottomans. In the mid-nineteenth century, the Druze were in
conflict with their mountain neighbors, the Maronites, which in 1860
culminated in one of the regions bloodiest episodes of sectarian warfare.
The Druze and the Maronites were again on opposing sides when the
Lebanese civil war erupted in 1975. Kemal Jumblatt, an Arab nationalist, leftist, and avowed Buddhist who saw similarities between Buddhism
and Druze belief, cast his lot with the Palestinians, as did Walid when his
father was murdered in 1977.
It wasnt until after the war that Jumblatt made his peace with the
Maronites. He and Samir Geagea, head of the Christian militia that
Jumblatts Druze fought in the mountains in a bitter reprise of the 1860
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O P P O R T U N IS TI C O R PR ACTI CAL?
For many observers, Jumblatts turnaroundfrom Syrian ally to opposition leader, from a Soviet client in the 1980s to a friend of the Bush White
House a decade agowas evidence of an almost deranged opportunism.
119
To the Druze it all made perfect sense. They are by necessity opportunistica small minority that must bend with the wind or be broken by it.
Israels Druze community, for instance, discerned very early during the
1948 war for independence that the Zionists were going to defeat the
Arabs, and cast their fate with the former. They are among the Jewish
states proudest citizens, fiercest warriors, and most active politicians. Syrias Druze community has also subscribed to the power of the statetaking Assads side in the ongoing civil war.
The Druze of Lebanon are different insofar as they stand on the sidelines of a political system designed to balance the countrys three largest
communities: Christians, Sunnis, and Shiites. This affords Jumblatt what
is effectively a permanent swing vote, and thus more room to maneuver
and win concessions for himself and the Druze. Jumblatt is often called a
weathervane, as he is acutely sensitive to the regions political winds. When
he saw the United States unleash its military might in Iraq, he seized the
chance and turned against his former Syrian overlords and jumped on the
freedom-agenda bandwagon.
When Jumblatt saw the United States unleash its military might in Iraq,
he seized the chance and turned against his former Syrian overlords.
However, even after it was clear that neither the White House nor the
international community was going to protect him, his Druze, or his
country from Assads depredations, he continued to call out Assad and
Iran and, closer to home, Hezbollah, which laid siege to the Chouf Mountains fastness of the Druze in May 2008. Thus, at a critical moment for
the Druze, Jumblatt let fall the mask of the opportunist. He stuck his neck
out in the knowledge that his enemies, Assad among others, have long
memories and longer knives.
The leaders of minority communities throughout the Middle East,
including Christian clerics, like some Western officials and analysts, say
they prefer Assad to the Sunni-majority opposition because he protects
minorities. Not Jumblatt. Two years ago he urged Syrias Druze soldiers to
stay at home and refrain from participating in the war to prop up Assad.
We must avoid being part of an axis against [Syrias Sunni] majority in
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121
U K R A INE
Ukraine Is Fighting
Our Battle
Five reasons the United States should send military aid to Ukraine.
By Paul R. Gregory.
122
Russia has outspent the United States fifty times over on military assistance
in the Ukrainian theater and by an infinite amount on lethal assistance.
Whenever the topic of Ukrainian military assistance is broached, European and American opponents immediately revert to anxiety about boots
on the ground. Ukraine is requesting training, advice, and military equipment, not a third world war as naysayers prophesy.
There are compelling reasons why the United States and NATO should
supply embattled Ukraine with military equipment.
First, Ukraine is fighting the United States and Europes battle against a
wealthy petro state whose rogue leader, Vladimir Putin, has broken international treaties and norms and must be reined in before he expands his horizons. Ukraine has fought this battle so far on its own paltry resources, with
little assistance from a civilized world too timid to confront a bully state.
In military engagements in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the United
States has provided military assistance to local allies unwilling to defend themselves. Ukraine, with its increasing loss of life and spilled blood, is fighting on
its own behalf, as the United States and Europe spur it on with vague promises
of sanctions and expressions of concern delivered safely from the sidelines.
Second, the United States need not fear that military assistance to
Ukraine will turn Putin or the Russian people against America. This
has already happened. Throughout Putins tenure, the United States and
NATO have been vilified as Russias enemy number one. (Remember that
Mitt Romney was scorned for returning the favor.) Clearly Russia will not
assist us in the worlds trouble spots. In Syria and Iran, Russia has made
things worse rather than better.
Putins nonstop propaganda blames the United States and Europe for
the Ukraine conflict. It claims that the US State Department paid for the
protests that began in Ukraine last fall, backed the neo-Nazi extremists
who took control of Kiev, and remarkably has its agents in east Ukraine to
protect shale oil deposits for energy conglomerates. Ukraines new president and his government are mindless puppets of Washington, the Russian media trumpets day and night.
There are no limits to the imagination of Putins information technologists, and they are effective. Authoritative Levada Institute polls show a
123
124
AFP/Anatolii Stepanov
Fourth, Putin takes great pains to describe the battle for east Ukraine as
a civil war between oppressed Russian speakers in the east and rabid antiRussian extremists in the west. This is anything but a spontaneous civil
125
126
status. Putin pulling out and allowing a free and independent Ukraine
would be as unlikely as Winston Churchill announcing in 1942 that Herr
Hitler is really a decent chap, so lets let him have what he wants.
Violence will end only if Russian mercenaries are driven out by the
Ukrainian army. With real American military equipment, Ukraines army
could put down the mercenaries, unless Putin wanted to risk a full-scale
invasion with all its consequences.
There also can be no diplomatic solution when one party to a settlement cannot be trusted. Putin has performed his man of peace theatrics
too often. The US State Department dispenses with diplomatic language in
listing Russias false claims about Ukraine. NATO officials complain that
Russian officials have been repeatedly misleading and evasive regarding
their roles in both Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Even the cautious defense
minister of Germany said in an interview with Der Spiegel that Russia has
destroyed a massive amount of trust....Currently, Russia is not a partner.
Partners adhere to joint agreements. Deutsche Welle reports even franker
talk from the German representative of the Heinrich Bell Foundation in
Ukraine, who said Russia should just stop with the lies and speak plainly:
this is a war, and Russia is a party in this military conflict.
Obama can hold off on biting sanctions on the grounds that he must
persuade a reluctant Europe to come on board. He has no such excuse
with respect to military assistance. Obama today can order the lethal military equipment delivered that will make the difference between defeat
and victory. And it will be brave Ukrainians, not Americans, who spill
their blood for a cause that the world community has judged as just. How
about some leadership rather than following from behind?
Special to the Hoover Digest.
Available from the Hoover Institution Press is Women of
the Gulag: Portraits of Five Remarkable Lives, by Paul
R. Gregory. To order, call 800.888.4741 or visit www.
hooverpress.org.
127
C H I NA
A Modern Mandarin
Opening itself to free markets, China has lifted several hundred
million people out of poverty. That was the easy part. An interview
with Hoover fellow Michael Spence. By Jonathan Schlefer.
Michael Spence is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of economics at New York Universitys Stern School of Business, and the Philip H. Knight
Professor Emeritus of Management in the Graduate School of Business at Stanford
University. He was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in
2001. Jonathan Schlefer wrote this article for the New York Times.
128
129
to increase the buying power of its own consumers if it wants to make the
leap to a truly prosperous nation.
This is a fairly conventional Western view of the Chinese economy.
But what was surprising is that it was a central theme of the no-nonsense
2011 report prepared under Lim and Spenceand that Beijing published
it not just in English but in Chinese for domestic consumption. Further
discussions in 2013 helped Liu He, a top economic adviser to President Xi
Jinping, and his colleagues formulate major reforms approved at a Communist Party plenum in November.
Poor nations often try to specialize in low-wage exports, but the
middle-income transition, Spence argues, requires a much more
sophisticated economic policy.
global demand deficit that Spence worries about or Chinas need to deliberately shift the composition of demand.
Nonetheless, these are coherent ideas based on experience, Spence
argues. The need to tap long-run demand can be seen at work in poor
countries that export into the global economy, and they surely apply in
different ways to advanced nations. But clarifying such ideas in formal
models belongs very much on economists to do list, he says.
But just because top officials in China have endorsed an economic
reform agenda doesnt mean they will actually adopt it. Lots of Chinese are
saying, well believe it when we see it, Spence said with a sigh. Chinas
eleventh Five Year Plan (200610) also called for strengthening domestic
demand, but it weakened instead. In 2000, private consumption accounted for 46 percent of GDP, but by 2012 it had fallen to a mere 36 percent
of GDP.
The November party plenum called for some 20 percent of the Chinese
population to migrate from rural to urban areas, where wages and social
services are far better. But cities are starved for taxes, so they increasingly
turn to real estate ventures and borrowing via financial vehicles, notes
Anthony J. Saich, a China expert at the Harvard Kennedy School. Cities
will not even provide schooling for children of millions of rural migrants
who lack official residency permits, and they resist issuing more permits.
If the party does not deliver real progress to the vast majority of
Chineseits a very inclusive conceptthey will fail.
131
The traditional Chinese alternative has been a rather small civil service surrounding the emperor, he says. Its a meritocracy, selected by
examination. These are the talented, Western-educated officials the LimSpence group has come to know.
With its thousands of years of centralized decision making, China may
never resemble a Western democracy. But the elite recognizes it must sustain popular support, Spence says. If the party does not deliver real progress to the vast majority of Chineseits a very inclusive conceptthey
will fail.
Reprinted by permission of the New York Times. 2014 The New York Times Co. All rights reserved.
132
INTERVIEW
Reform Conservatism
and the Junior Senator
from Utah
In the absence of a unifying conservative reform agenda, says
Mike Lee of Utah, there will be a lot of bickering. We need to fill the
void. An interview with Peter Robinson.
133
TH E N EE D F OR C O NSE R V ATI V E R E FO R M
Robinson: Its hard to believe, you said in a speech at the Heritage
Foundation late last year, but by Election Day 2016 we will be about as
far from Reagans election as Reagans election was from D-Day. Its time
to get over Ronald Reagan?
Lee: Certainly not over him. Its time to move forward with an agenda that
meets our needs, the needs of today. These needs are always changing. When
we think about the fact that 2016 will be about as far away from Reagans
election as Reagans election was from D-Day, it reminds us of the fact that
we have to constantly be looking for ways to retool our agenda.
Robinson: All right. Ramesh Ponnuru in the National Review wrote that,
after the election of Barack Obama, the GOP was consumed by a bitter
debate over the legacy of George W. Bush. Conservatives came to regard
the fight against federal overspending,
ObamaCare, and
big government as
nearly the entirety
of the conservative
program. You were
elected in 2010. Does that feel accurate to you that the Republican Party
as it was represented in the Senate and the House was the party of essentially nono to Obama?
Lee: In many respects, yes, and with good reason. We always have to
be mindful of the need to resist the kind of government we dont want.
Thats been something that has marked American history from the very
beginning, going all the way back to 1773, when some American patriots boarded a ship in Boston Harbor and tossed crates of English tea
into the water in symbolic protest against the kind of national government they did not want: a London-based national government that was
taxing them too much; that was regulating them quite oppressively; that
was so far from the people that it was slow to respond to their needs. It
took us fourteen years to get from that moment to Philadelphia.
So Boston was where we started protesting against the government
we didnt want andhaving declared, fought for, and won our indepen134
dencefourteen years later in Philadelphia we embraced the kind of government we did want. So my point is we will continue to have our Boston
moments. We will always have those, as needs arise where we need to push
back against the kind of government we dont want. But we also have to
start having our Philadelphia moments too, and thats what this conservative reform agenda is all about.
Robinson: I want to make sure that point stands out very clearly. So there
are times when saying no is necessary and valuable in itself. It was important to stand up during those first Obama years?
Lee: Its important to do that, and it will continue to be important to do
that. But its not enough. We have to do more. In addition to protesting
against the kind of government we dont want, we have to embrace the
kind of government we do want.
Robinson: One more reference to the Heritage Foundation speech you gave
last year. You drew a comparison between the present day and the late 70s and
early 80s. In 1976 the conservative candidate, Ronald Reagan, tried to wrest
the Republican presidential nomination from the establishment candidate,
Gerald Ford. Reagan lost, but four years later he grasped the nomination and
the presidency itself. You said, The difference between 1976 and 1980: the
hard, heroic work of translating conservatisms bedrock principles into new
and innovative policy reforms. Thats what youre about now.
Lee: Yes, exactly. In 1976 the conservative movement in America found
a conservative leader for the ages in Ronald Reagan. But we still failed to
win an election in that year. We still failed to get that conservative leader
for the ages in office in 1976. What really changed between 1976 and
1980, when we finally got that conservative leader for the ages elected, was
that we developed an affirmative policy agendaa reform agendaand
thats what we need now.
Robinson: Margaret Thatcher said, first you win the argument, then
you win the vote.
Lee: Yes.
O N E BI T E A T A TI ME
Robinson: Once again, your Heritage Foundation speech: I submit that
the great challenge of our generation is Americas growing crisis of stagnaHoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
135
136
tion and sclerosisa crisis that comes down to a shortage of opportunities. So, before you figure out the reforms, you define the problem, and
its overwhelmingly an economic problem in your view.
Lee: Yes. Its an economic problem, and it manifests itself at every level on
the economic ladder. Among the poor it shows up as immobility. These
people very often are trapped in poverty by government policies. I blame
not those who are in poverty but the government policies that are trapping
them there.
In the middle class you see a degree of insecurity where peoplewhenever they find that theyve achieved a little bit of additional income, if
theyre ever able to get to that point in the first placethey find that once
they have that additional income its been swallowed up by taxes and by
higher prices brought about by inflation, some of it resulting from our
monetary policy and some of it resulting from overregulation, costing the
American economy $2 trillion a year, and that of course gets passed downstream to the end consumer.
And then at the top of the economic ladder, you see a different kind
of problemalso created by governmentin that youve got people
who are held in place at the top of the economic ladder by cronyist
privilege. Having climbed to the top of the economic ladder themselves, theyre willing to pull up the ladder behind them, making it
more difficult for others to get to where theyve gone. Some of these
same people are held in place artificially by the government through
a combination of subsidies and the kinds of regulations that create
natural barriers to entry.
Robinson: All right. Senator, were talking about conservative reform
here. Among the specific pieces of legislation youve proposed are the
Transportation Empowerment Act, the Family Fairness and Opportunity Tax Reform Act, and the Working Families Flexibility Act. From
the conservative point of view, it almost seems as though youre offering reforms that you yourself consider quite modest. Heres the federal
Leviathan and here we have Mike Lee, who in his first two years got a
reputation as a tea party, vehemently antigovernment senator, and when
it comes to the legislation and reforms Mike Lee is actually introducing,
theyre not so big. How come?
ONE STEP AT A TIME: Mike Lee, the junior US senator from Utah, arrives at the Capitol for
a vote last year. Lee was elected in the tea party year of 2010. One pundit says that Lees
proposals are more interesting and more promising than almost anything Republicans campaigned on in 2012.
Lee: Look, if youve got an elephant and you want to eat that elephant,
you cant swallow the elephant all at once. Youve got to take a bite
at a time. We can do that in a way that still shows our bold colors as
conservatives. It doesnt require us to put on pastels and blur the difference between conservatives and people who are not conservative. But
we need to do it a step at a time, and these are very digestible pieces of
legislation, very digestible reforms, that could move forward sometime
in the next few years and could gain the support of a majority of the
members of both houses of Congress. So thats why its important to
do this.
Abraham Lincoln said that the most important function of government was to clear the paths of laudable pursuit, to lift artificial weights
137
from the shoulders of all, and thus provide for a fair start in the race of
life, and thats really what were trying to do. Here, many of these artificial weights are placed on the shoulders of Americans by the federal
government. Were looking for ways that we can start removing some of
those weights. We might not be able to remove all of them, and maybe
not all at once, but if we can remove one or two of them here or there,
its a good start.
Robinson: So youre also making decisions about your career as a member of the US Senate. I think they still say that the choice a senator has to
make is whether to be a workhorse or a showhorse. In office just over two
years and youre not just railing against the federal government, you have
said: I want to get things done in this chamber; I want to move legislation.
Is that correct?
Lee: Yes, thats fair to say.
Robinson: But youre still not comfortable with it?
Lee: Well, I would say that I reject the premise that you have to choose
necessarily between painting in bold strokes that show where you want to
go long-term and painting with smaller, more-detailed strokes that show
where you want to go right now. I think you can do both at the same
time. I think you can walk and chew gum simultaneously. And this is an
attempt to do that.
Robinson: Back to your Heritage Foundation speech. You talked about
comparing todays reform conservatism with a Reagan agenda. Heres
what occurs to me, particularly as we think about 2016 and a Republican candidate running for president, that the Reagan agenda, by the time
he came into office was just sweeping and he set into place a domestic
agendatax cuts, rolling back legislationthat launched a quarter of
a century of economic growth. Its that Reagan recovery that makes the
current recovery look so weak, so tepid. I grant you your argument that
if you are serious about getting things done in the US Congress, youve
got to take it bite by bite. But put all of this together and I dont see that
its enough for conservatives to run on in 2016. Theres not an embrace
of new growth, a new opportunity for the American economy. I know
that you believe that free markets can do far more for the poor than the
federal government ever can. So whats missing here? Youre saying: this
138
T H E S HA P E OF TH I NG S TO CO ME
Robinson: Let me ask you, if I may, to comment on divisions among
conservatives, among the GOP, that if the GOP is to have a serious chance
of capturing the Senate and moving on to capture the White House, need
to be dealt with. By the way, if you dont think these divisions are as deep
as the press tends to suggest, say that too if you would.
Lee: I again reject the premise that one must choose between on the one
hand voting according to ones conscience and on the other hand winning
elections. Good policy leads to good politics, especially if youre consistent
in the reasons for your voting pattern. So I dont think its a good idea for
Hoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
139
Americans over 70 percent. You could come up with reform conservatism on issue after issue, but what does it matter if the American
family continues to collapse?
Lee: This is what reform conservatism is all about. The entire focus of
my conservative reform agenda is to help strengthen and bolster the twin
pillars of our civilization: free market economies and voluntary institutions of civil society, including families, churches, synagogues, and other
voluntary associations. The bigger government gets, the more muscle it
flexes, and the more the muscle of free markets and civil society will tend
inevitably to atrophy. So reform conservatism focuses on how we can get
the federal government to pull back, especially in those areas where its
causing a lot of these problems, where its making more severe a lot of
these societal problemsproblems that relate to the family structure and
so forthwhere its holding people in poverty, where its creating undue
disincentives for people to work, and to get married and stay married. If
we stop creating those disincentives, if we get the federal government in
the right place
Robinson: Not necessarily smaller, but in the right place. Different programs. Are you saying that past a certain size the federal government tends
to crowd out family?
Lee: It tends almost inevitability to crowd other things out as it gets bigger and bigger. So, yes, I am saying its necessary for it to be smaller, but
that doesnt necessarily mean that you simultaneously shrink everything in
the federal government at an equal rate because there are some things that
only the federal government can do and there are other things that the
federal government perhaps ought to allow someone else to do, whether
that someone else is a state or local government or a voluntary institution
of civil society.
Robinson: This November, fifteen Republican and twenty-one Democratic seats in the US Senate will be up for re-election. To capture control
of the Senate, Republicans need a net gain of six. Care to call it?
Lee: Yes, I think weve got a better than even chance of gaining at least
six seats in the US Senate this November. Obviously weve still got a long
time before that happens, so its too early to call, but weve got a lot of
red-state Democrats who are up for re-election. Weve got a few other
141
Democratic senators who are retiring in states where we appear quite wellpositioned to be able to recapture the seats.
Robinson: When the next Congress is sworn in in January, you could be
joined by Congressman Tom CottonHarvard Law School, two tours of
duty, and now running for the Senate from Arkansas. You think of your
generation of members in the Senate now: you, Ted Cruz, John Barrasso,
Marco Rubio. The US Senate has not for a couple of decades been the
place where the action was, but it could be, couldnt it?
Lee: It could be. Tom Cotton is a very exciting candidate. Hes done great
work in the House, and his background and expertise will make him a
very effective senator, and I look forward to working with him. There are
others out there that will be joining us; many of them are younger Americans much like Tom Cotton. Ben Sasse in Nebraska is somebody Im really
excited about, a younger American whos running for the US Senate, and I
frankly expect that he will win and that hell be a great colleague.
Robinson: So you could have fun?
Lee: Absolutely.
Robinson: Mike Lee, junior senator from Utah, thank you.
Lee: Thank you.
142
INTERVIEW
Game of Loans
Banking crises are a product of people and strategy, not mysterious
forces, say Hoover fellows Charles W. Calomiris and Stephen H.
Haber. By Kathryn Jean Lopez.
Everyone knows that life isnt fair, that politics matters, Charles W.
Calomiris and Stephen H. Haber write in their new book, Fragile by
Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit (Princeton
University Press, 2014). We recognize that politics is everywhere, they
continue, but somehow we believe that banking crises are apolitical, the
result of unforeseen and extraordinary circumstances, like earthquakes and
hailstorms. Thats simply not true, Calomiris and Haber argue: The politics we see operating everywhere else around us also determines whether
societies suffer repeated banking crises ...or never suffer banking crises.
Fragile by Design will make you skeptical of the version of events
told time and again by central bankers and treasury officials, and critical when that version is repeated by business journalists and television
talking heads.
Charles W. Calomiris is a co-chair of the Hoover Institutions Regulation and
the Rule of Law Initiative. He is the Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business and a professor
at Columbias School of International and Public Affairs. Stephen H. Haber
is the Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution; director of
Hoovers Working Group on Intellectual Property, Innovation, and Prosperity;
and the A. A. and Jeanne Welch Milligan Professor in the School of Humanities
and Sciences at Stanford University. Kathryn Jean Lopez is editor at large of
National Review Online.
143
affairs of flawed human beings. Most important perhaps, good laws and
regulations predictably occur more in societies whose rules of political
engagement make it harder for groups of citizens to use the government
as a means of taking advantage of other citizens.
Laws and rules are not produced by robots programmed to maximize
social welfare.
Lopez: Do taxpayers have any control over this, a real role to play in
banking and financial reform beyond praying the money is real?
Haber: They absolutely do! The laws that govern the banking system
are passed by our elected representatives. Obviously, the average taxpayer
is not going to become an expert on the arcane details of bank regulation. But taxpayers can apply a simple heuristic: there are no free lunches.
When a government official promises a subsidy, taxpayers should ask, who
is ultimately going to bear the cost of that subsidy? When a government
official promises a subsidy and implies that no one is going to bear the
cost, taxpayers should grab hold of their wallets.
Taxpayers might keep the following example in mind: Americans were
told that the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should receive
a range of special privileges that subsidized their operations, because those
subsidies were passed on in the form of reduced costs of home ownership.
Everyone was getting a free lunch. This turned out to be false on two
counts. First, a large body of research has shown that the majority of the
subsidy was captured by Fannie and Freddies stockholders and managers,
not home owners. Second, when Fannie and Freddie failed in 2008, they
had to be bailed out at enormous taxpayer expense. Housing subsidies
turned out to be a very expensive lunch.
Lopez: Is Canada better at banking than we are?
Calomiris: In Fragile by Design, we show that banking instability and
credit scarcity are not inevitable outcomes dictated by the nature of banks,
per se, but rather are outcomes of a political bargaining process. Its not
that Canadian bankers are more innovative or brighter than American
bankers. The political rules of the game, defined by Canadas constitution and under which Canadian banks operate, are and always have been
145
146
147
been able to react faster, and could have averted the severe systemic collapse in the fall of 2008 and the types of bailouts that ultimately were
relied upon. But that would have required recognizing how bad the regulatory policies had been in the decade leading up to the crisis, which was
something no one in authority wanted to do. Instead, for one and a half
years, policy makers kept pretending that the crisis was merely a liquidity problem rather than a deep insolvency problem. That made the
crisis much worse.
The one group that did not have a seat at the table as the game was
being played was taxpayers, who were presented with the bill when the
game was over.
The first signs of looming insolvency risks were in the spring of 2007,
and the signs became clearer in August 2007, January 2008, and March
2008, when the Fed bailed out Bear Stearns. In fairness to regulators, the
extent of subprime-related losses was hard to estimate at first, and loss projections grew over time as it became increasingly apparent that the scale
of risky mortgage lending was greater than had been believed. But the
purpose of maintaining sufficient levels of bank equity is precisely to deal
with such unforeseen circumstances. Amazingly, the Fed and the Treasury
still did virtually nothing between March 2008 and September 2008 to
counter the continuing decline in bank equity ratios (in market value)
by forcing banks to shore up their financial positions by issuing stock (to
raise their equity ratios). The markets were open and equity issues were
possible, but policy makers at the Fed, the Treasury, the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation, and the Securities and Exchange Commission did
not use their authority to force banks and other financial institutions at
risk to raise equity capital. Because of the steady and visible deterioration
of so many large financial institutions from 2006 to September 2008,
when Lehman failed, it was a match in a tinderbox.
In September 2008, in the wake of the Lehman failure, it still would
have been possible for the Treasury to initiate a program of preferred stock
assistance (like that of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation in 1933,
148
The implication is that journalists should always be asking three questions about the banking system: Are bank balance sheets becoming stuffed
full of risky assets? Are regulators failing to increase capital requirements
sufficiently in response to the increase in asset risk? And what are the
implications for the public if the answer to both questions is yes? Needless
149
to say, they should not simply rely upon the statements of bankers and
regulators in seeking the answers.
Lopez: Youre both fathers of daughters; whats your realistic hope for
their economic lives?
Calomiris: I think the important parts of my daughters ability to realize
their dreams will depend primarily on their own persistence, imagination,
and integrity, and knowing them as I do, I dont worry much about their
ability to make their dreams come true. I do recognize, however, that they
will face some strong headwinds from the looming economic problems
that everyone in their generation must facemost obviously, the unsustainable debt burdens of entitlement programs, and also the continuing
pandemic of global financial instability. But I am an optimist about the
next generation. Paradoxically, I believe that it is precisely because they
will have to confront some very harsh realitieswhich the prior generation irresponsibly ignoredthat they will do so well.
Banking crises are not the product of random, difficult-to-predict events,
like hailstorms and mountain lion attacks. They occur when banking
systems are vulnerable by construction.
History gives us cause for such optimism. If we look at the rise of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, we see an example of what happens when people in a democracy are forced to confront their predecessors economicpolicy errors. Britains low growth and high inflation became intolerable.
Thatchers reforms ending high inflation and restoring economic growth
were welcomed by a citizenry that had previously supported nationalization of industry and extremely high tax rates. Democracies dont always
get it right, and they can be very slow to respond, but when confronted
by the high costs of major policy errors, they are capable of responding
quite effectively.
Lopez: Whats the future of banking in America?
Haber: I am extremely doubtful that Dodd-Frank is going to make the
American banking system more stable. In fact, by institutionalizing toobig-to-fail protection, I fear that it will encourage bankers in systemically
150
151
VAL U ES
Everywhere you turn, it seems, are studies claiming to show that America
has lost its upward mobility for people born in the lower socioeconomic
levels. But there is a sharp difference between upward mobility, defined as
an opportunity to rise, and mobility defined as actually having risen.
That distinction is seldom even mentioned in most of the studies. It is
as if everybody is champing at the bit to get ahead, and the ones that dont
rise have been stopped by barriers created by society.
When statistics show that sons of high school dropouts dont become
doctors or scientists nearly as often as the sons of PhDs, that is taken as a
sign that American society is not fair.
If equal probabilities of achieving some goal is your definition of fairness, then we should all get togetherpeople of every race, color, creed,
national origin, political ideology, and sexual preferenceand stipulate
that life has never been fair, anywhere or at any time in all the millennia
of recorded history.
Then we can begin at last to talk sense.
I know that I never had an equal chance to become a great ballet dancer
like Rudolf Nureyev. The thought of becoming a ballet dancer never once
crossed my mind in all the years when I was growing up in Harlem. I
suspect that the same thought never crossed the minds of most of the guys
growing up on New Yorks Lower East Side.
Thomas Sowell is the Rose and Milton Friedman Senior Fellow on Public
Policy at the Hoover Institution.
152
Does that mean that there were unfair barriers keeping us from following in the footsteps of Rudolf Nureyev?
A very distinguished scholar once mentioned at a social gathering that
as a young man, he did not think of going to college until someone who
recognized his ability urged him to do so.
Life has never been fair, anywhere or at any time.
In other words, the fact that reality does not match the preconceptions
of the intelligentsia shows that there is something wrong with reality, for
which somebody must be blamed. Apparently their preconceptions cannot be wrong.
Women, like so many other groups, seem not to be dedicated to fulfilling the prevailing fetish among the intelligentsia that every demographic
group should be equally represented in all sorts of places.
153
Women have their own agendas, and if these agendas do not usually
include computer engineering, what is to be done? Draft women into
engineering schools to satisfy the preconceptions of our self-anointed saviors? Or will a propaganda campaign be sufficient to satisfy those who
think they should be making other peoples choices for them?
That kind of thinking is how we got ObamaCare.
At least one of the recent celebrated statistical studies of social mobility leaves out Asian-Americans. Immigrants from Asia are among a number of groups, including American-born Mormons, whose achievements
totally undermine the notion that upward mobility can seldom be realized
in America.
Those who preach this counterproductive message will probably never think that the envy, resentment, and hopelessness they preach, and
the welfare state they promote, are among the factors keeping people
down.
Reprinted by permission of Creators Syndicate (www.creators.com). 2014 Creators Syndicate Inc. All
rights reserved.
154
V AL U E S
Moral Debts
The way we deal with our debts involves more than dollars and cents.
It reveals our very character as a people. By David Davenport.
155
is using debt to finance short-term spending (Social Security and Medicare payments, for example) that should be covered on a pay-as-you-go
basis through taxes. Is it right to simply shift forward the year-to-year costs
of one generation to the next?
Debt is one more knob we twist open when the economy is slow.
In his book Debt: The First 5,000 Years, author David Graeber wrestles
with a womans simple yet profound conversational comment: Surely one
has to pay ones debts. It is, as Graeber points out, not just an economic
statement, but a moral one. Or, as George Washington put it, such debts
ungenerously throw upon posterity the burden which we ourselves ought
to bear. Before we blithely redefine the moral and financial obligations of
government debt to become just another instrument in the economic
toolkit, one must consider all the implications of debt: financial, moral,
generational, diplomatic, and strategic.
Special to the Hoover Digest.
157
VAL U ES
Twenty-five years ago, four big things happened that still shape our world.
The Berlin Wall came down, and with it the empire that Vladimir Putin
would love to restore. The Tiananmen Square massacre launched China
on a completely different trajectory, which has made it what it is today.
A then little-known British boffin called Tim Berners-Lee invented what
would become the World Wide Web. And Ayatollah Khomeini delivered
his fatwa on Salman Rushdie.
Last spring I sat down with Rushdie in New York, at the American
PEN World Voices festival, to discuss the consequences of those events
for freedom of expression around the world. I asked him how he had
experienced the velvet revolutions of 1989 and where he had been when
the wall came down. He could not exactly remembersome safe house,
presumablyand he confessed to having felt a tinge of envy at watching
others, including Nelson Mandela a few years later, walking to freedom
while he was still in durance vile.
There is no hint of that now. After the days events, we wandered out
on to the streets of New York, with a gaggle of other writers, and Salman
stood on the corner of Cooper Square, hailing a cab. Who knows where
the taxi driver hailed fromIran, perhaps? This normality of one writers
Timothy Garton Ash is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the
Professor of European Studies, director of the European Studies Center, and Gerd
Bucerius Senior Research Fellow in Contemporary History, all at St. Antonys
College, Oxford University.
158
The serious point stands: in Britain, as in many other European countries, the overall evolution among the great majority of Muslims has been
towards an acceptance of, and even an active support for, freedom of
expression, which necessarily includes the right (though not a duty) to
offend.
On the other hand, Rushdie arguedand some careful research supports this viewthat a small minority in these European Muslim communities is still being dangerously radicalized. And self-censorship out of
fear keeps gnawing away at the edges of Western cultural life, whether in
universities, publishing, or theatre. The satirical musical The Book of Mormon continues to delight audiences. No one seems to be planning a sequel
called The Book of Muhammad.
In many majority-Muslim states, the constraints on freedom of expression remain horrendous. Saudi Arabia has issued new laws this year that
treat atheists as being on a par with terrorists. On the day of our event,
the New York Times carried a report about Alexander Aan, who served
159
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ZUMAPRESS.com/Erik Lesser
In China, the post-1989 system has produced both what will soon be
the largest economy in the world and what is already the largest censorship apparatus in the world. But whereas elsewhere religious power-holders persecute atheists and people of other faiths, in China the Communist
Party-state goes after anyone who tries to organize along religious lines
without its approval, be they Christians or Falun Gong. (Privatized spirituality is fine, and sought by many party apparatchiks.)
SPEAK UP: An artistic representation of author Salman Rushdie gazes
down at one of his old computers at the Woodruff Library at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, where Rushdie donated his papers. Rushdie,
who spent years in hiding, now lives a normal life and many Muslims in
the West have endorsed the idea of civic tolerance. In many other parts of
the world, however, constraints on freedom of speech remain severe.
161
One reason the Chinese censorship apparatus is so vast is that there is simply much more speech to be monitored than there was twenty-five years
ago, because of the Internet. WeChat, the Chinese equivalent of WhatsApp,
has well over 300 million users. The winner of this years American PEN
digital freedom award, Twitters CEO Dick Costolo, reminded us that it
hosts more than 500 million tweets a day. This is a huge quantitative gain
for free speech, but it brings its own dangers. It is not just authoritarian
regimes that abuse the Internet as a tool for mass surveillance.
A PEN survey of American writers found them not only worried about
the NSA surveillance revealed by Edward Snowden but also, in some cases, feeling the need to self-censor as a result. In other words, it has had a
chilling effect.
As to the battle over The Satanic Verses, Rushdie wrote in his memoir
Joseph Anton, published in 2012, it was still hard to say if it was ending in
victory or defeat. The same may be said of the consequences of those four
giant events of 1989. But that is the way with the battle for free speech
never entirely lost, never conclusively won.
Reprinted by permission. 2014 Guardian News and Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
162
IN M E M O R I AM : F O U AD AJ AM I
It Would Be My Fate
to Return . . .
Rooted in the old world, the late Hoover fellow Fouad Ajami flourished
in the new. A reflection from his final book, In This Arab Time.
Editors note: In this excerpt from his final book, In This Arab Time: The
Pursuit of Deliverance, the late Hoover senior fellow Fouad Ajami reflects on
the world he left behind and to which he felt compelled to return.
An astute student of the Arab world reviewing my most recent book, The
Syrian Rebellion, wrote that after years of judgmental aloofness toward
the Arab world, I had finally managed to get into, rather than under, the
skin of my protagonists. The reviewer was John Waterbury. He had spent
years in Egypt, he had presided over the American University of Beirut.
He had a long trail in Arab studies, coming to the Arab world through
immersion in Moroccan affairs. He learned and mastered the language,
and in a field filled with acrimonies of all kinds he had managed to stay
above the fray and the feuds. His work was always cool and cerebral; he
was the sympathetic outsider.
I could claim no such legacy. I was born in Lebanon and grew up in
Beirut in the 1950s and early 1960s. I left for the United States in my late
teens. The Arab world was no disinterested field of study for me. In truth,
I never intended to write about Arab affairs. When I quit Lebanon, I knew
I would never return.
Fouad Ajami was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and co-chair of Hoovers
Herbert and Jane Dwight Working Group on Islamism and the International Order.
163
We had a legend in our small country: all those who packed up and
gave up on the place swore that their sojourn abroad would be brief. The
academic degrees completed in America, or the fortune scraped together
in West Africa, the traveler would return. A house of stone would be built
in the ancestral village, a parliamentary seat would be secured, the right
bride from the proper family would be found. The time away, the foreign interlude, would be forgotten. Our countrysuffocatingly small, its
people filled with dreams and ambitions the country could not sustain
insisted on the myth of its completeness. Our elders and ancestors beheld
the foreign world with condescension and indifference.
When I quit Lebanon, I knew I would never return.
Air travel was different then, more forbidding. A dozen years after
my departure I would return for a summer in Lebanon. I had missed
so much of my familys life: there had been marriages, new children,
and deaths aplenty. My beloved grandfather had died two or three years
earlier. He had been my solace and protector when so much around me
had given way. He had been a man stoical, unperturbed by the tumult
of our family. In his younger years, perhaps after his South American
interlude, he went to the Shia holy city of Najaf, in Iraq. His mother,
a strong-willed widow who had married a Persian who had come into
that hill country from the city of Tabriz, had wanted him to become a
religious scholar. He indulged her, but the life of the seminaries was not
for him. The students, the talabeh, were wretchedly poor, and the arid
curriculum could not hold him. My grandfather had deep reservoirs of
religious skepticism. He honored the traditional worldhe built a small
mosque in his village, and a Husseiniyya, a place of religious observance,
named after Imam Hussein, the iconic figure of Shiism. But he knew
the old world was giving way.
The author who wrote The Arab Predicament was, in part, writing of the
unmaking of a dream he once shared.
165
I had written of Arab nationalism. My first book, The Arab Predicament (1981), defined me. The Arab intellectual class didnt think much
of that book. The book had the requisite scholarly apparatusafter all,
it was my major entry into the academic guild. But Arab nationalism,
and the belief in that one Arab nation with an immortal missionthe
intellectual banner of that movementwas the sacred, unexamined
inheritance of two generation of Arabs. I had felt the pull and the call
of that idea in the mid-1950s, and had wept in the summer of 1967,
after the defeat of the Arab armies in the Six Days War. I can never
forget that day. I was in California, anxious to find summer work in the
canneries. I sat there, shell-shocked, with a couple of my Arab friends,
reading the papers and taking in the magnitude of the defeat that had
befallen the Arabs.
A decade earlier, as a young boy, I defied my elders and took a bus to
Damascus to catch a glimpse of the Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser. A union had been forged between Syria and Egypt, and Nasser had
cast his spell over politically conscious Arabs. The Syrians first pleaded
for the union and then plotted against it. The union was dissolved in
the end. But for one brief shining moment, the dream of Arab unity
seemed within reach. We could hardly catch a glimpse of the great man.
From a balcony he greeted the crowds, and the trip from Beirut seemed
all worthwhile. A nemesis awaited that dream, and in that catastrophic
summer of 1967a mere nine years after that bus ridethere we were
taking in that defeat and its sorrow. The author who wrote The Arab
166
Over the past four decades, the world of the Arabs was laid bare. No
author could prettify it, or give away its old secrets. Violence overwhelmed
it; no ship of sorrow could take the Arabs to the verities and the world
they knew. The authors and their quarrels no longer mattered. The dictators and the strongmen who had been hailed and acclaimed wrought ruin
and grief in their wake. Arabs were the authors of their own demise.
Today in the Arab world I am (almost) a stranger. If the songs and
lyrics are old, I can recognize them. I know the writers and the poets of
the 1950s and 1960s, the bearers of a modernity that was our lodestar as
my generation came into its own. Beirut was not as brilliant, as worldly,
as the obituaries would make it after its fall. But it was our home, and
167
TO THE FUTURE: Fouad Ajami plays with his granddaughter Leila. Born in
Lebanon, Ajami immigrated to the United States as a young man. In that
passage to America I never thought I would become a chronicler of Arab
woes, he wrote. Yet there came a time, in the late 1970s, when the
Arab world began to tug at me. Its material became my abiding concern.
168
A new generation of Arab writers, Cairenes for the most part, was opening up our world, defying the old forms of expression and the worn-out
pieties.
I started The Arab Predicament with the tale of a Lebanese journalist,
Salim al-Lawzi, who had been found dead and mutilated in early March
1980 on the outskirts of Beirut. Lawzi was an outspoken critic of the Syrian regime of Hafez al-Assad, and his murder foreshadowed much greater
cruelties to come. This was still an Arab world easy to shock, and Lawzis
writing hand, disfigured by acid, was all that was needed to tell what this
crime was about. My account of the mans death was something of an outline, I did not possess a fuller narrative of Lawzis life and the things that
led to his murder. I had what I needed then: an entry into the new culture
of dictatorship and cruelty.
In retrospect, Lawzis tale gave me a measure of daring. The Arab political world was coming apartand how! A civil war that broke out in Lebanon in 1975 had grown in savagery. It was both a war among the Lebanese
and a war among the Arabs. Beirut was a garden without fences, an astute
Palestinian political operative said of the city that was, in its better days,
a center of Arab modernity. And there it was being claimed by religious
and sectarian atavisms. The atavisms were unleashed, embarrassed at first,
then with abandon. Indeed, the book I went on to write, meant to be an
169
indictment of a political tradition, was outpaced by the realities descending on the Arabs. But I was justified in my sense that Lawzis murder was
the prelude to a new, more unforgiving time, for the Arabs.
Salim al-Lawzi was part of my luck as an author. In the years that followed, the truths about the sectarianism of the Arab world that had been
papered over were laid bare. I held out scant hope for the Arabs political condition. The 1980s would make a mockery of what had been said
and taught in Arab political writings. Arabism is love, Michel Aflaq had
written. He said that in an infinitely more hopeful time when he and his
partner Salah al-Din al-Bitar, fresh from their years in Paris, could still
hope that the texts and ideas of modernity could overcome the sectarian
fault lines and phobias of that world.
From one end of the Arab world to the other, old verities were undone.
There had been violence in the Arab world before. Assassins had struck
down emirs and noted men of politics. Military seizures of power had
upended ruling regimes. One such coup, in Egypt in 1952, was a genteel
affair. A feeble monarch was sent into exile aboard his yacht, from his palace in Alexandria, and given the respect and decorum befitting a monarch.
Six years later, in Baghdad, on a summer day, the Hashemite monarchy was swept away without mercya boy king, Faisal II, and his family
were gunned down and the body of the regent dismembered and dragged
through the streets.
It hadnt been pretty or safe, that Arab political condition. But it was
in the 1980s that the world of the Arabs succumbed to greater brutalities.
Politico-religious movements were not newthe Muslim Brotherhood
dates back to the late 1920s, and its secret apparatus was no stranger to
assassinations and foul playbut a new stridency came into the intersection of faith and politics. From one end of the Arab world to the other, old
verities were undone, surplus swept out of the way. Some attributed this
to a demographic explosionnewly urbanized young men jostling for a
170
place in the world, their pride coming up against scarcity, clashing with
older generations who had fallen into things and acquired turf of their
own. For all our distress in the 1950s and 1960s, my generation of Arabs
could still hold on to the idea of progress and advancement. On the whole
we had a discreet and proper relation with Islam, the faith of our elders,
but secular and irreverent ideas held us and guided our lives. We paid the
men of religion scant attention; the mullahs who visited my family home
inspired no awe in me or my siblings and cousins. We had Baathists and
communists and Arab nationalists and self-avowed skeptics aplenty.
The generations to come would know no such ease or confidence. The
social peace was shattered, the cries of pain audible to all but those who
preferred to bury their heads in the sand.
I was lucky to escape. The New World gave me the opportunity to
write, and the safety. It would be my fate to return to the material of that
older world that I had quita world that would continue to tug at me in
my new surroundings.
Excerpted from In This Arab Time: The Pursuit of Deliverance, by Fouad Ajami (Hoover Institution Press,
2014). 2014 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved.
171
I N M EM ORIAM : F OUA D A JA MI
Fouads Gift
Farewell to a friend, a guide, and a storyteller of the Arab worlds
disorder. By Charles Hill.
Cut these words and they would bleed; they are vascular and alive; they
walk and run.
Emerson
One dark December day I walked to the Union League on Chapel Street,
early for lunch with Fouad Ajami, who was taking the train up from Manhattan to New Haven. I settled in to look at a book while I waited for
his arrival; bright flames silently flickered in the fireplace; through the
high window Yales gray, stately Vanderbilt Hall loomed across the way. A
half-hour passed as other diners arrived to fill the room. Then forty-five
minutes. I craned my neck to survey the place. There was Fouad, alone at
a table on the far side, happily holding a book; he had been there all along,
coming in well ahead of me.
This is not the way we usually thought of Fouad: far more likely for
him to be standing at a lectern, or on a television panel, or in seemingly
constant travel, or animated discussions with friends and adversaries alike.
Here at the Union League I could see that he was not reading that book, he
was thinking. He possessed a perpetual energy of mind; he was, as Emerson hoped for, man thinking, always in the sense of thinking as acting.
Charles Hill is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and chairman of Hoovers
Herbert and Jane Dwight Working Group on Islamism and the International Order.
He is the Brady-Johnson Distinguished Fellow in Grand Strategy, the senior lecturer
in international studies, and the senior lecturer in humanities at Yale University.
172
That is why that scene in the Union League made an impression. Fouad
resembled some erudite but intrepid Victorian-era gentleman contentedly
at ease in his club chair yet poised to be off in a trice to the hellholes of the
earth to accumulate the knowledge that civilization most needs to know.
When we first met, Fouad and I were both college teachers. But Fouad
had many more dimensions than I. Every time, and it was often, that we
talked about his role in the university and I in mine, it was clear that he
felt hemmed in by the four walls of the seminar room. One fall semester
he invited me to join him in teaching his class at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. He was
a transcendent teacher, vitally exuberant, a challenging, loving mentor,
clearly adored by his students. But he always had an audience of larger
demographic magnitude on his mind, an American, Middle Eastern, and
world population. He would soon give up his professorship to take up
full time his veritable vocation. Which was what? We have no entirely apt
label for it. Like Emerson, he invented a career for himself alone.
Fouad was, in Emersons phrase, man thinking, always in the sense of
thinking as acting.
We can say that Fouad Ajami was the foremost example in our time of
the lineage of intellectual-moral, thinker-travelers who from ancient times
onward have illuminated the human condition and, as great writers and
transfixing speakers, drawn lessons from it for us to contemplate and act
upon. Yet even knowing this much about him, Fouads true significance
has yet to be understood.
Fouad and his philosophical-historical forebears took on the simplest yet
most perplexing challenge: what is going on, and why? The peoples of the
world have organized themselves in ways multifarious beyond number. How
are these differing systems and their cultures by which they define themselves structured, and why does it matter? Can such diversity ever interact
coherently, productively, and peacefully? Is one as good as any other? Or can
we be judgmental and conclude that some, or one, is preferable?
Fouad was naturally gifted in this role, and he educated and honed his
gifts incessantly: he was both an insider and an outsider wherever he went
173
SEER: He could enter and express the innermost thoughts of the potentates and the impoverished alike....No college discipline, field, or
department was big enough to hold Fouad Ajami, writes friend and
fellow Hoover scholar Charles Hill.
174
except in his home village, but he knew that you cant go home again. He
was an Arab with a family name that conveyed Persian-ness. He was a Shiite,
from a faith constructed on loss, relegation, and righteous victimization; as
a believer he was both reverential and skeptical. In appearance, voice, and
demeanor he seemed the epitome of all things Middle Eastern, yet he was
a non-hyphenated American patriot. He was poet, philosopher, statesman,
historian, bon vivant, and to his Jewish following a mensch.
Fouad and his forebears dared to ask whether the peoples of the world,
organized in ways multifarious beyond number, can ever interact
ZUMAPRESS.com/Lucas Oleniuk
To each of his multiple roles and talents Fouad brought, again in Emersonian terms, perceptions viewed from an original angle to the universe.
As historian he exhausted himself in the collection, organization, and
interpretation of facts as numberless as the desert sands, yet he always
felt the forces of history within which facts traveled. As anthropologist he
could be at once one of the tribe studied yet a gimlet-eyed analyst of their
mores. A natural talent this was: as a reporter, dictators would welcome
him into their tents with majestic hospitality and see him on his way with
their thanks even as they knew full well he would not spare them in his
next published essay. He could enter and express the innermost thoughts
of the potentates and the impoverished alike.
In sum, no college discipline, field, or department was big enough
to hold Fouad Ajami; he knew that the world does not come at us in the
neatly wrapped packages of a time-slotted college syllabus; it comes all at
once, in all forms if not formless, and in a blur of time lines.
Fouad was not only an individual genius (the MacArthur Foundation
early on certified him as that) but also an organizer, manager, and editor,
professional occupations to which he brought what the military would
call command presence and which foundations could admire as convening power. Singlehandedly he invented a project to study the troubles
and possibilities of the Middle East through weaving together an unprecedented network of writers, activists, intellectuals, and former diplomats
175
from across the Middle East: Sunni, Shia, Jewish, Christian, Arab, Persian,
Turk, male and female, in an amazing parade of ideas and interpretations
all made possible by the vast generosity and wise counsel of Herbert and
Jane Dwight through their working group on Islamism and the International Order centered at the Hoover Institution.
Fouad Ajamis own voluminous corpus of writings has yet to be fully
studied, comprehended, and assessed as a whole. In it will be found not
only the novelists, terrorists, tyrants, states and revolutions, grandeurs and
grotesqueries of the globes Arab-Islamic swath but also a window on human
nature itself. Doctoral dissertations of the future will find philosophical,
material, and cultural profundities of lasting consequence in such masterpieces as The Arab Predicament and The Dream Palace of the Arabs.
He knew that the world does not come at us in the neatly wrapped
packages of a college syllabus. It comes all at once, in a blur.
And like Tocqueville, Ajami knew in his bones that freedom is the force of
history of potentially monumental significancealbeit a force that could be
halted or set back by the enemies of freedom. He was, therefore, an instantaneous champion of the original Arab Spring demonstrations, the young
people who took their lives in their hands when they ventured into the city
squares encircled by the regimes armed forces. He was anguished when this
new generation, untainted by the old military, Islamist, or autocratic bosses,
was so swiftly muscled aside, many to suffer awful consequences.
He was anguished when the Arab Spring generation, untainted by the old
military, Islamist, or autocratic bosses, was so swiftly muscled aside.
As the West has been insightfully designated Faustian and the Arab world
Magian, Fouad was the latters Magus, the modern embodiment of the wise
man and seer from the time of the ancient Medes and Persians to todays notso-Fertile Crescent. He saw, with unparalleled clarity, that todays Arab-Islamic
realm may be a case of what Spengler called pseudomorphosis, a set of thin
surface-level societies sitting atop not only the lower layer of seventh-century
Islam but also an even deeper stratum of suppressed geological-cultural power
that one day, and perhaps that day has just dawned, will erupt in violence to
first devastate and subsequently liberate the region to enable it to take a productive role in the history of the world to come.
What is so magical about this our Magus is that such heavy and consequential thinking has been given to us by this charmed and charming,
magisterial and merry exemplar of the gracious best in the human spirit,
Fouad Ajami.
From the Foreword of In This Arab Time: The Pursuit of Deliverance, by Fouad Ajami (Hoover Institution
Press, 2014). 2014 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved.
Available from the Hoover Institution Press is Trial
of a Thousand Years: World Order and Islamism, by
Charles Hill. To order, call 800.888.4741 or visit www.
hooverpress.org.
177
Theres a pastime among liberal pundits to cry that the United States
lags its major industrial competitors in things like Internet access
and ecosystem sustainability. The subtext of these rants is that an
illiberal, reactionary United States spends too little on government
entitlements to promote parity, equality, and social justice among its
people. These pessimistic rankings increase the angst about the American condition when viewed from scowling perches in Washington or
New York.
Not surprising, the winners in these periodic gloomy assessments are
usually smaller or intermediate quasi-socialist nations, with mostly homogeneous ethnic and religious populations (for example, Switzerland, New
Zealand, Iceland, or Denmark). Americans are then scolded to tone down
their pride at being exceptional and to begin emulating such supposedly
more livable societies.
Yet I suppose that if you were to assess, say, a few million mostly well
off Californians who lived within ten miles of the coast, from San Diego
to Berkeley, they would compare quite nicely with Denmark. Or, for that
Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at the
Hoover Institution and the chair of Hoovers Working Group on the Role of Military History in Contemporary Conflict.
178
P A Y I N G F OR O TH E R S SAFE TY
The criteria by which America is judged are often biased and historically ignorant. Why not rank the United States in comparison with other
similarly huge countries that span multiple time zones and include in
their enormous populations radically different ethnic and religious
groups?
How about comparing America to countries that, like the United
States, have vast territories and diverse populations of over two hundred
millionChina, India, Indonesia, and Brazil? How would such nations
stack up to the United States in terms of corruption, health care, pollution, freedom of the individual, treatment of women and gays, religious
tolerance, or other criteria of social progress? Is there a global assessment of coups and revolutions per nation, or contrarily, the longestsustained democracy?
If Russia goes into Estonia, it will not be the Dutch or Danish army that is
called upon to ask Putin to leave.
Most such rankings rely on statistics that rarely weigh in factors that
non-elites take for granted. How about the number of cars an average
household owns, the relative percentage of the household budget spent
on food, the price of gas that allows them mobility, the average square
footage of living space, or the number of electronic appurtenances that
make life easier and enjoyable, such as microwaves or televisions? In all
such categories, the United States ranks at or among the top nations
in the world. I suppose those in Manhattan or at Harvard would not
interpret as progress the fact that a poor Mexican illegal immigrant can
buy a used Yukon relatively cheaply and fuel it with $3.50-a-gallon gasoline. But in terms of global assessment, he still has a safer, roomier,
and cheaper vehicle than the French or Italian driver of a tiny Fiat that
requires $9-a-gallon fuel.
179
it. If Russia goes into Estonia, it will not be the Dutch or Danish army
that is called upon to ask Putin to leave.
The United States created the landscape that not only allowed, for
example, a South Korea, Japan, or Germany to thrive over the past seventy
years without substantial military investments but also allows such countriesamong them also Australia, Canada, Taiwan, and much of Europe
itselfnot to worry about developing a nuclear deterrent and the costly
and risky politics that would entail. Should we retreat from the world
stage, in the next twenty years we might appreciate differences in the
social progress index of a Japan, South Korea, or Taiwanor, for that
matter, a Germany or Iceland that would have to vastly increase defense
spending to protect itself.
The criteria by which America is judged are often biased and historically
ignorant.
D Y N A M IC S T ATE S AR E NT MO NO CH R O ME
Speaking of social progress, the United States lets in the largest number
of legal and illegal immigrants in the world. Currently forty-five million or more residents were not born in the United Statesa number
four times as large as in any other nation. Ethnic, religious, and cultural
homogeneity promotes some of the values (such as Internet access) that
social-progress indices usually value. On the other hand, one reason the
United States is volatile, influential, dynamic, and by far the most culturally influential society in the world is the number and variety of its
legal immigrants.
No one wants to move to Russia. Switzerland does not want any new
immigrants. France and Germany dont quite know what to do with those
Hoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
181
already living in their countries. China and Japan could never consider an
African, Swedish, or Mexican immigrant fully Chinese or Japanese. The
Arab world would not let in Jews and in many places is driving out Christians. Building a large new church anywhere in the Islamic world is for all
practical purposes impossible.
In short, people vote with their feet, and by huge margins prefer the
greater freedom, economic opportunity, and security of the United States,
not to mention its meritocracy that relies far less than elsewhere on class,
racial, tribal, or religious criteria. The United States, also unlike other
countries, does not put such a high value on education, capital, or skills in
assessing potential immigrants (family ties and presence on US soil are the
more influential criteria). The United States hosts between eleven million
and twenty million illegal immigrants. Naturally it has ongoing challenges
to provide near-instant parity to the millions who arrive here poor, uneducated, and without money.
To suggest that Americans are at fault because our health care or primary education system is somehow not up to Danish or Icelandic standards
is laughable when 13 percent of the US population is foreign bornprobably far more, if we had accurate numbers of illegal aliens in the Southwest. The source of immigration also makes assimilation more difficult.
Switzerland became culturally and psychologically incapable of accepting
more immigrants even though would-be entrants are largely fellow Europeans. In contrast, most current immigrants to the United States arrive
from an impoverished Mexico or elsewhere in Latin America, not Canada,
and thus arrive with far greater disparities than other North American
citizens.
People vote with their feet, and by huge margins prefer the freedom,
opportunity, and security of the United States.
Assessments can be rigged any way you want if the point is to advance
preconceived ideological aims. Consider the relative price of food, fuel,
and cars, the number of air conditioners per capita, the global rankings of
universities, comparative population growth, the rate of and age at marriage, the ability to defend ones nation without alliances and outside sub182
183
One Summit,
Different Dreams
The Cairo Summit offered China a chance to present itself as an
equal on the world stage. For Chiang Kai-shek it would lead to bitter
disappointment. By Hsiao-ting Lin.
The Cairo Summit was a turning point in modern Chinas emergence onto
the world stage. Chiang Kai-shek and two of his wartime allies, President
Franklin D. Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill
met to crystallize why they were fighting Imperial Japan and how postwar
Asia would be ruled. The Cairo Declaration of December 1, 1943, did
more than promise the return to China of all territories Japan had stolen,
notably Manchuria and Taiwan. As Chiang would write, the whole world
treated Cairo as a huge and unprecedented victory for China. For the
first time in more than a century, the leader of China was seen as an equal
to the leaders of the West.
It had been a signal year for the Nationalist government under Chiang.
Among the remarkable diplomatic achievements were treaties with the
United States, Britain, and many allied nations, all of which recognized
Chinas contributions to the world war in progress; a speech by Madame
Chiang Kai-shek to the US House and Senate, appealing for aid in Chinas struggle against Japanese aggression (she was both the first Chinese
national and the second woman to address both houses of Congress); and
finally, in October, an invitation to sign the joint Four-Nation DeclaraHsiao-ting Lin is curator of the East Asia Collection and a research fellow at
the Hoover Institution.
184
tion in Moscow that pledged the continued fight against the Axis powers.
But the most impressive diplomatic achievement was the Cairo Summit.
A gap often exists between political image and reality, however. Research
into Chiang Kai-sheks personal diaries and other personal papers, such
as those of T. V. Soong and Joseph Stilwell, all stored at the Hoover
Archives, allows us to reconsider several often-overlooked questions: What
did Chiang think about the summit and what was his initial reaction to
Roosevelts invitation? What was Chiangs game plan before he arrived in
Cairo, and what topics did he want to bring to the table? What became
of Chiangs own priorities during and after Cairo? And ultimately, what
impact did the summit have on Chinas relations with the Allieswas it
in the end a triumph for Chiang or a defeat?
This article takes a closer look at these questions.
P RE L UD E T O A SU MMI T
By the middle of 1943, Roosevelt was warming to the idea of a meeting with
Chiang. There were pressing matters of morale, strategy, and cooperation.
Roosevelt and Churchill had met at Casablanca in January to discuss Allied
war strategy and issue a call for the Allies to seek an unconditional Axis
surrender. But neither Chiang nor his representative had been invited. In
the following months, both Madame Chiang and her brother T. V. Soong,
Chinas foreign minister, began warning against omitting China from Allied
summits in Washington. In early June, Roosevelt asked Soong to invite
Chiang Kai-shek for a personal meeting, either in a Big Four summit (United States, Britain, China, and the Soviet Union) or a bilateral discussion.
Chiang chafed under what he perceived as unequal treatment by his
wartime allies.
Roosevelt certainly had reasons to meet with Chiang in 1943. After two
years of cooperation in war, China and the United States were involved in
disputes that needed to be resolved, including complaints from Nationalist leaders about unequal treatment by the Allies in such matters as lendlease aid and inter-Allied consultation on war plans, and friction between
Chiang and General Joseph Stilwell, Chiangs American chief of staff.
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Meeting with Chiang, Roosevelt hoped, would allay tensions in SinoAmerican wartime cooperation and possibly pave the way for his meeting with Soviet leader Josef Stalin. At a more personal level, Roosevelt
felt a meeting with Chiang might bolster Chinese morale needed to keep
Chiangs forces in the war against Japan.
186
Supporting China as one of the Big Four also would serve US postwar
strategy in Asia: to oppose all forms of imperialism and favor a free, strong,
and democratic China as the predominant, stabilizing force in Asia.
In the end, was the Cairo Summit a triumph for Chiang or a defeat?
Churchill did not share Roosevelts vision of Chinas role in postwar Asia,
nor was he interested in waging war in the China-Burma-India (CBI) theater. At the same time, the new South East Asia Command (SEAC) under
Admiral Lord Louis Mountbatten, created at the Allies Quebec Summit
in August (which had no Chinese representation), became a point of contention. The now British-dominated Southeast Asian theater overlapped
that of the CBI, under Chiangs command.
According to official Chinese files, in the weeks following Quebec,
Soong and Roosevelt reached a consensus: Stilwell would be recalled from
the CBI; a new Combined Chiefs of Staff to include China would be created; and China would participate in the Burma counteroffensive. But
getting the heads of state together was not so easily settled. In early October, Roosevelt consented to meet with Chiang and the British in Cairo,
preferably with Stalin attending, too. According to Chiangs personal diary, Roosevelt also seemed to hint that were Stalin to refuse to attend with
Chiang, he might meet the Soviet leader elsewhere beforehand. Chiang
bitterly concluded that there was no way for genuine cooperation to
emerge among America, Britain, and the Soviet Union.
Upon receiving Roosevelts message about a prospective meeting with
Chiang (and Churchill) in Egypt, Chiang wrote in his diary that he really
had no intention of accepting the invitation, but to decline would be
disrespectful. Chiang was equally concerned about the uncertainty over
UNITY: This poster, produced by the US government after the Cairo
Summit of 1943, emphasizes harmony among Chiang Kai-shek, Franklin
D. Roosevelt, and Winston Churchill about the aims of the war against
Japan. Behind the scenes, conflicting priorities created friction among
the Allies.
187
Roosevelts meeting with Stalin. In the end, Stalin, concerned about the
reaction of both Japan (with whom the Soviets had a neutrality pact) and
the Chinese Communist Party, decided not to attend the Cairo Summit.
Therefore, two conferences were scheduled, one in Egypt attended by the
American, Chinese, and British leaders, and the other at Tehran, where
Stalin would meet with Roosevelt and Churchill.
WH A T W A S ON CH I ANG S MI ND ?
In the months before the summit, Chiang was ill at ease about attending.
For one thing, Chiangs original idea had always been to meet solely with
Roosevelt to secure US military and economic assistance. For another, he
had had a change of heart over Stilwell. Chiang had decided to keep the
American, recognizing Stilwells solid connections with the US War Department and his new position as Mountbattens deputy in SEAC. Yet this
reversal deeply humiliated Soong, who had been working hard for Stilwells
recall in Washington. Furthermore, Chiang criticized Soongs propensity
to make decisions without consulting Chongqing. As a result of this falling
out between the in-laws, the foreign minister was forced into seclusion in
Chongqing and was not involved in preparing Chiang for the summit.
Chiang believed he had been promised an all-out Allied effort to reopen
communications through Burma.
Despite his hesitation, on November 2 Chiang officially accepted Roosevelts invitation. Up to now, only a week before his departure for Cairo,
Chiang had not placed the Allied counteroffensive in Burma as a top priority at the summita decision that would have major consequences.
Perhaps Chiang thought the issue had been thoroughly discussed and
a consensus reached in Chongqing in mid-October among Mountbatten,
Stilwell, and many other high-ranking officers. The generalissimo and the
British admiral had worked out a sound plan to recover Burma: the British
would provide major naval and amphibious operations in Lower Burma
to ensure Allied supremacy in the Bay of Bengal (Operation Buccaneer);
and Chiang would provide some fifty thousand ground forces, which, like
the Chinese X (India) and Y (Yunnan) forces of 137,000 in total, would
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L OS T T ER R I T O R I E S
After Stilwell submitted plans for the Burma campaign, Chiangs attention shifted from military issues to political and diplomatic ones, focusing on a clear definition of Chinese territories that had been lost to the
Japanese. Half a year before the Cairo conference, Chiang had published
his book Chinas Destiny, in which he drew an idealized picture of postwar Chinas peripheral areas, including Manchuria, Taiwan, the Ryukyu
Islands, Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, and even the remote Pamir and Himalayan regions, all of which he argued were strategically essential for the
countrys postwar national defense.
Hoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
189
ing that both Ryukyu and Korea were once imperial Chinas tributaries
rather than integrated parts of the empire, Chiang decided to make Manchuria and Taiwan the main targets to reclaim.
Chiang also thought about what to do with Japan, and how Japan
would compensate China for its losses after the war. In his personal diary,
Chiang wrote:
I will talk with Roosevelt and Churchill in accordance with a spirit of
demanding nothing and offering nothing. I should exchange viewpoints
frankly with them on military, political, and economic issues, but should
not be troubled by any anxiety about gains and losses....My only principle of meeting Roosevelt and Churchill ought to be one of seeking no
fame and wealth but self-sufficiency. Not expecting benevolence from the
others, I can avoid inviting humiliation. I should also avoid taking the
initiative on such issues as the disposal of Japan and Japans compensation
for Chinas losses, and should wait for the Americans and the British to
make the first move. Thus, the United States and Britain will appreciate
and respect our selfless stance in this world war.
One could argue that on the eve of the Cairo Summit, Chiang was
struggling with how to achieve Chinas objectives while impressing the
Western leaders with his sterling motives. As it turned out, Chinas presence in Cairo served as a cruel goad to its wartime Allies, especially Roosevelt, who had hitherto supported Nationalist China but afterward
became disappointed by Chiang and his government.
A C L A S H OF PR I O R I TI E S
Before setting off for Cairo, Chiang and his top aides had finalized Chinas
priority list of seven issues to be broached in Cairo:
1. A new international peace organization
2. The Far Eastern Commission
3. The combined chiefs of staff (CCOS) involving China, the United
States, and Britain
4. The regulation of Japanese-occupied territories
191
impossible, Chiang allegedly said to the British lord, Never mind, we will
carry it out all the same. Curiously, Chinese historical documents record no
such response from Chiang. Given the subsequent controversy over Chinas
participation in recovering Burma, if Mountbattens recollection is authentic,
Chiangs promise might have been one of the crucial factors in the intraAllies conflict over Burma the following year.
Chiang was shocked to learn that the agenda for the first morning had
been decided on by the Americans and the British, with Chinese proposals
largely ignored.
Meanwhile, US military chiefs were meeting with their Chinese counterparts. The Chinese, according to General Henry Arnold and Admiral
William Leahy, disappointingly had little to say other than being willing
to commit to an offensive proposed by the SEAC. The Chinese generals
poor performance and lack of preparation continued to be in evidence as
they attended their first combined chiefs of staff (CCOS) meeting. Their
Allied counterparts regarded the meeting as a waste of time.
Chiang had planned to attend the CCOS session to comment on
Mountbattens plans but canceled at the last minute. His mind was not on
the Burma campaign, but on his meeting with Roosevelt.
In a three-hour-long dinner discussion, Chiang and Roosevelt seemed
to agree on virtually all matters. Chiang concurred with Roosevelts view
that Japans future politics should be left up to the Japanese people and
proposed that reparations be paid to China in actual properties; he also
agreed with Roosevelts analysis of communism, emphasizing that Moscow could not be trusted. Roosevelt endorsed the return of Manchuria
and Taiwan to China and agreed on a postwar vision that included ending
colonialism and bringing independence to Korea and Indochina. Chiang
summed up the talk as exceedingly satisfactory in his diary.
According to Elliott Roosevelt, the presidents son, after the meeting
his father said he was convinced that many of Chiangs best forces were
not being committed to the war against Japan. Instead, according to the
president, they were being deployed against communist forces in north-
193
west China. Roosevelt suggested that this might account for Chiangs
efforts to obstruct Stilwells training of Chinese troops in India; Stilwell
would not tolerate hoarding those troops and their supplies for a postwar civil conflict.
TH E BR E A C H W ID E NS
General George Marshall visited Chiang on the afternoon of November
24 to hear Chiangs opinions about Mountbattens proposals. Chiang
remained skeptical, saying that unless the British agreed to increase their
commitment to the proposed Burma offensive substantially, he would not
commit his forces to it. According to Chiang, Marshall said he understood
194
195
No source materials indicate there was any serious discussion of the gridlock
over the Burma campaign. Ronald Heiferman argues that this was because
Roosevelt had decided to avoid confronting the Chinese; at the same time, it
is equally likely that Chiang had never prioritized the Burma campaign on his
agenda. After the tea party with Roosevelt, Chiang began to focus on certain
points including further US loans to China. Chiang decided to send his wife
to meet with the president and try her luck the next morning.
In his diary entry for November 26, Chiang noted that Roosevelts attitude toward him at the tea party was more amicable than in their previous dinner meeting, and that thanks to Madame Chiangs successful visit,
Roosevelt had agreed to provide economic assistance to China.
A CR U E L R E A L I T Y CH E CK
The Americans had a different perspective. A few hours after his tea party with the Chiangs on November 25, Roosevelt held a long talk with
Stilwell, during which they discussed the many problems the US general
faced. The president tried to console the general by sharing his own frustration with Chiang. According to Frank Dorn, one of Stilwells subordinates, Roosevelt advised the general that night to get rid of him [Chiang]
once and for all if Stilwell could not get along with him.
196
More significantly, that night Roosevelt told his son Elliot that in
response to US pressure, Chiang had agreed to suspend hostilities against
the Chinese Communist Party and form a democratic government after
the war. He also mentioned that Chiang had agreed to include the communists in his government at the end of the war as long as the British were
not allowed to reclaim their privileged positions in Shanghai, Canton, and
other former treaty ports. Roosevelt apparently took his words seriously.
On the afternoon of November 26, US and British military leaders met
for their last CCOS session, during which the British suggested the Burma
campaign might have to be delayed or scrapped because the Allies lacked
the resources to carry out multiple operations simultaneously. The Americans, stressing the Burma campaign as vitally important to the Pacific war,
warned of grave political consequences. The British predicted Stalin would
press Churchill and Roosevelt for an early date for the launch of Operation
Overlord, the proposed invasion of Western Europe, when they met days
later in Tehran. If so, Britain would have to defer amphibious operations in
the Bay of Bengal to ensure enough landing craft in Europe.
While military leaders debated, Chiang held his last personal meeting
with Roosevelt. Roosevelt assured Chiang that he would obtain consent
from Churchill for the Burma campaign and an expanded naval presence
in the Bay of Bengal. A few days later, before returning to China, Chiang
wrote in his diary that he was unconvinced by Roosevelts assurances, yet
he saw no harm in hearing what Roosevelt said because the Burma campaign was never Chiangs priority.
FINALE
The last act began at 5 p.m. on November 26, when high officials from
the three parties gathered to hammer out a final communiqu. The Allied
leaders and their entourages worked to make the communiqu innocuous
and general. The first paragraph said the Allies have agreed upon future
military operations against Japan and expressed their resolve to bring
unrelenting pressure against their brutal enemies by sea, land, and air.
The second paragraph said that all the territories Japan has stolen from
the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa, and the Pescadores, shall be
restored to the Republic of China. It also stated that in due course,
Hoover Digest N 2014 No. 4
197
198
IT IS DECIDED: Josef Stalin, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Winston Churchill meet in Tehran a
week after the Cairo Summit. In the end, Stalins insistence that the Allies move up the date
for a planned invasion of Western Europe overruled the plan for an all-out invasion of Burma
that Chiang Kai-shek had approved. Moreover, Roosevelt rebuffed Chiangs request for a
further loan and more military materiel.
199
If it should now be known to the Chinese army and people that a radical
change of policy is being contemplated, the repercussions would be so
disheartening that I fear the consequences of Chinas ability to hold out
much longer.
The only remedy, Chiang said, was to assure the Chinese people and army
of Americas concern by assisting China to hold on with a billion-dollar
gold loan to strengthen its economic front and relieve its dire economic
needs. Chiang also requested that supplies flown into China be doubled.
With a clearer picture of the Chiangs and Chinas domestic situation,
Roosevelt abandoned his earlier attitude toward the Nationalists and SinoAmerican relations. He reacted to the cable politely but firmly, expressing
the impossibility of doubling the supplies to China and making no promises about a new loan except to suggest that he would take the matter up
with the Treasury. Further, Roosevelt urged Chiang not to withdraw his
forces from Operation Tarzan, intimating that doing so would weaken
Chinas support in the United States.
Chinas relationship with its allies was deteriorating. In March 1944,
under heavy pressure from the Allies, Chiang cabled Roosevelt in defense
of his refusal to deploy the Yunnan force into northern Burma, citing
a strong Japanese offensive in China. He received an unsympathetic
response. Meanwhile Marshall, responding to a suggestion by Stilwell,
decided to halt supplies to the Chinese in Yunnan and allocate them to
US forces unless Chiangs troops immediately began operations.
By the summer of 1944, as a result of Japans Operation Ichigo in China, Allied strategy in East Asia lay in ruins. Relations between Chongqing
and Washington grew even worse. The deterioration in China and Burma
forced Marshall to warn Roosevelt that all the military power and resources
in China must now be entrusted to one individual capable of directing
that effort in a fruitful way against the Japanese. Therefore, on July 6,
Roosevelt pressed Chiang to appoint Stilwell commander of all Chinese
forces. Instead, after Chiang refused, Stilwell was recalled from his command in October and replaced with General Albert Wedemeyer.
Adding to the estrangement between Chiang and Roosevelt was the
US decision, around mid-1944, to urge the Nationalists to reconcile with
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THE FALLOUT
For Roosevelt, the original purpose of the Cairo Summit was to give
Chiang the public recognition he needed to boost Chinese morale. As
Chiang perceived it, the purpose was to lobby the Americans for more aid
and full recognition of China as a world power. But the issues surrounding the Burma campaign dominated much of the energy and time at the
summit; worse, this supposedly marginal issue evolved into a huge controversy among Allied leaders in 1944. The fallout included US pressure
on Chiang to reconcile with the communists, a threat to stop US aid to
China, and a crumbling Sino-American alliance.
In retrospect, although the Cairo Summit marked the zenith of Chiangs
prestige as a world leader, it also triggered his subsequent downhill slide
and that of his regime. In hindsight, whether or not the Cairo Summit
was an asset to Chiang and his government is an unanswered question.
How and why the United States was led into intervening in Chinas
domestic quagmire and a battle for the control of Asiaa battle that continued from the Chinese civil war into the Cold War eradeserves further scrutiny.
Special to the Hoover Digest.
201
On the Cover
In 1950, American efforts to rebuild Europe were outgrowing their original ambitions, which were ambitious enough: feed the hungry, revive
trade and currencies in allied and former enemy nations alike, resurrect
industry, restore stability. Now Soviet militancy was rising, threatening
Europes fragile security and posing an ideological challenge for a continent still reeling from World War II.
A poster contest that year represented one maneuver in that struggle for
Europeans hearts and minds. The contest yielded a rich harvest of images
promoting strength and unity under the auspices of the Marshall Plan,
formally known as the European Recovery Program (ERP), which had
commenced in 1948. Artists chose robust, lively images: a ship under full
sail, smokestacks, pulleys, girders, and factory whistles, and also doves of
peace, hopeful saplings, clasped hands. This poster, which won fifth place,
was created by British artists Leonard Roy Horton and Ronald Sandiford.
Flags of the countries participating in the Marshall Plan line the edge of
the key. The message, You hold the key, makes clear that the goal of a
united, prosperous Europe was no abstract sloganit was meant to be
taken personally by those who read it.
Economic goals were front and center when the Marshall Plan was
unveiled. George C. Marshall, the secretary of state, introduced his plan
in a speech at Harvard on June 5, 1947. Getting the nations of Europe
back on their feet was also in Americans best interests, he pointed out. It
is logical that the United States should do whatever it is able to do to assist
in the return of normal economic health in the world, without which
there can be no political stability and no assured peace, he said.
Marshalls plan was also frustratingly vague, at least at first. Experts
clashed over what the United States should do for Europe. Thomas
Andrew Bailey, a Stanford history professor whose papers are housed at
the Hoover Institution, has cited a confidential State Department memo
lamenting that the Marshall Plan has been compared to a flying saucernobody knows what it looks like, how big it is, in what direction it
is moving, or whether it really exists.
202
203
Board of Overseers
Chair
Thomas J. Tierney
Vice Chairs
Boyd C. Smith
Thomas F. Stephenson
Members
Marc L. Abramowitz
Victoria Tory Agnich
Jack R. Anderson
Barbara Barrett
Robert G. Barrett
Donald R. Beall
Stephen D. Bechtel Jr.
Peter B. Bedford
Peter S. Bing
Walter E. Blessey Jr.
Joanne Whittier Blokker
William K. Blount
James J. Bochnowski
William K. Bowes Jr.
Dick Boyce
James J. Carroll III
Robert H. Castellini
Rod Cooper
Paul Lewis Lew Davies III
John B. De Nault
Steven A. Denning*
Dixon R. Doll
Joseph W. Donner
204
Herbert M. Dwight
Gerald E. Egan
Charles H. Chuck Esserman
Jeffrey A. Farber
Henry A. Fernandez
Carly Fiorina
James E. Forrest
Clayton W. Frye Jr.
Stephen B. Gaddis
Samuel L. Ginn
Michael Gleba
Cynthia Fry Gunn
Paul G. Haaga Jr.
Arthur E. Hall
Everett J. Hauck
W. Kurt Hauser
John L. Hennessy*
Warner W. Henry
Sarah Page Herrick
Heather R. Higgins
Allan Hoover III
Margaret Hoover
Preston B. Hotchkis
Philip Hudner
Gail A. Jaquish
Charles B. Johnson
Franklin P. Johnson Jr.
Mark Chapin Johnson
John Jordan
Steve Kahng
Mary Myers Kauppila
David B. Kennedy
Raymond V. Knowles Jr.
Donald L. Koch
Richard Kovacevich
Henry N. Kuechler III
Peyton M. Lake
Carl V. Larson Jr.
Allen J. Lauer
Howard H. Leach
Walter Loewenstern Jr.
Frank B. Mapel
Shirley Cox Matteson
Richard B. Mayor
Craig O. McCaw
Bowen H. McCoy
Burton J. McMurtry
Mary G. Meeker
Roger S. Mertz
Jeremiah Milbank III
Mitchell Milias
David T. Morgenthaler Sr.
Charles T. Munger Jr.
George E. Myers
Robert G. ODonnell
Robert J. Oster
Joel C. Peterson
James E. Piereson
Stan Polovets
Jay A. Precourt
George J. Records
Christopher R. Redlich Jr.
Kathleen Cab Rogers
James N. Russell
Roderick W. Shepard
Thomas M. Siebel
George W. Siguler
Distinguished Overseers
Martin Anderson
Wendy H. Borcherdt
Paul L. Davies Jr.
William C. Edwards
Robert H. Malott
Overseers Emeritus:
Frederick L. Allen
Susanne Fitger Donnelly
Bill Laughlin
John R. Stahr
Robert J. Swain
Dody Waugh
205
Ad To Come
206
Ad To Come
207
Ad To Come
208
Professional journalists are invited to visit the Hoover Institution to share their
perspectives and engage in a dialogue with the Hoover community. Leadership
and significant gift support to reinvigorate and sustain the
William and Barbara Edwards Media Fellows Program
are acknowledged from