6 tayangan

Diunggah oleh Giuseppe

- Tunnel
- part06.pdf
- Data-Mining and Knowledge Discovery, Neural Networks In
- 10.1.1.49.5686
- 30..pdf
- 12 Artificial Neural Networks
- Gianluca Tempesti- Architectures and design methodologies for bio-inspired computing machines
- An Introduction to Neural Networks Python
- 1.1.7.neuralnetworks
- Currency Prediction
- 55207_icacea1419
- NN-Ch2
- Felo
- Algorythmic:Statistical Projection
- Learning rules of ANN
- Generalized Linear Classifiers in NLP
- Real-Time Simulation of Biologically Realistic Stochastic
- Neural Network Ensembles using Interval Neutrosophic Sets and Bagging for Mineral Prospectivity Prediction and Quantification of Uncertainty
- DCDIS-2007.pdf
- chapter 5

Anda di halaman 1dari 11

Impact Analysis

Nedaa Agami

a

, Amir Atiya

b

, Mohamed Saleh

a,

, Hisham El-Shishiny

c

a

Decision Support Department, Faculty of Computers and Information, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt

b

Computer Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt

c

Advanced Technology and Center for Advanced Studies, IBM Cairo Technology Development Center, Egypt

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history:

Received 23 August 2008

Received in revised form 9 December 2008

Accepted 19 December 2008

Trend Impact Analysis is a simple forecasting approach, yet powerful, within the Futures

Studies paradigm. It utilizes experts' judgements to explicitly deal with unprecedented future

events with varying degrees of severity in generating different possibilities (scenarios) of how

the future might unfold. This is achieved by modifying a surprise-free forecast according to

events' occurrences based on a Monte-Carlo simulation process. Yet, the current forecasting

mechanism of TIA is static. This paper introduces a newapproach for constructing TIA by using

a dynamic forecasting model based on neural networks. This new approach is designed to

enhance the TIA prediction process. It is expected that such a dynamic mechanismwill produce

more robust and reliable forecasts. Its idea is novel, beyond state of the art and its

implementation is the main contribution of this paper.

2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Keywords:

Trend Impact Analysis

Forecasting

Neural networks

1. Introduction

Futures Studies is the science, art andpractice of postulating possible, probable andpreferable futures, andthe worldviews andmyths

that underlie them [1]. It seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change and what is novel through analyzing the

sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability. In an attempt to develop foresight and map possible futures within the Futures

Studies paradigm, futurists employ a wide range of methodologies, either purely quantitative, purely qualitative or a combination of both,

to cover the diverse different views of the future [24]. One prominent hybrid Futures Studies method is the Trend Impact Analysis (TIA).

As Gordon, the founder of the method puts itTIA is a simple approach to forecasting inwhich a time series is modied to take

into account perceptions about how future events may change extrapolations that would otherwise be surprise-free. It permits an

analyst, interested in tracking a particular trend, to include and systematically examine the effects of possible future events that are

believed to be important. [5, p.3] The major steps of TIA as dened by Gordonare as follows:

1. The Forecasting engine generates the base-case scenario (a surprise-free forecast) using an appropriate forecasting technique.

2. Expert judgments are used to identify a list of unprecedented future events that, if they were to occur, could cause deviations

(positive or negative) fromthe extrapolation of historical data (the source of such a list might be a Delphi study [6,7], some form

of other informal consensus among experts or a literature search [8]). For each such event, experts judge the probability of

occurrence as a function of time and its expected impact, should the event occur, on the future trend.

3. Using Monte Carlo Simulation, the TIA algorithm combines the impact and event-probability judgments with results of the

base-case scenario to generate a randomly selected subset of possible future scenarios. Note that, the usual practice is to

generate a very large number of scenarios (e.g. one million).

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

Corresponding author.

E-mail addresses: n.agami@fci-cu.edu.eg (N. Agami), amir@alumni.caltech.edu (A. Atiya), Saleh@SalehSite.info (M. Saleh), shishiny@eg.ibm.com

(H. El-Shishiny).

0040-1625/$ see front matter 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2008.12.004

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technological Forecasting & Social Change

Author's personal copy

The TIA algorithm was further enhanced by developing a mechanism to assess the impact of the occurrence of an

unprecedented future event given how severe the occurrence [9]. This was achieved by allowing the analyst to supply three levels

of impact/probability pairs; where each pair is associated with one of three degrees of severity; Low, Medium and High.

The basic steps of the Enhanced approach for TIA are as follows:

1. Randomly generate the Degree of Severity D (see Fig. 3 in [9]).

2. Accordingly (knowing the event and its degree), identify the corresponding event impact parameters: Maximum Impact,

Steady-State Impact, Time to Maximum Impact and Time to Steady-State Impact. This is done by indexing the associated

matrices.

3. Randomly generate the number of the month M in given year Y on which the event would occur.

4. Compute the Fractional Change Vector using the estimated event impact parameters (see Figs. 4, 5 and 6 in [9]).

5. Update the current scenario (column) S of the Scenarios Matrix accordingly.

While in the literature there was emphasis on studying and analyzing the future events aspect of TIA, there was a little attention

paid to the surprise-free forecast aspect. In this paper we focus on this particular issue. We develop a dynamic forecasting mechanism

using a neural network model to enhance the prediction process of the current TIA instead of the static mechanism already applied.

Fig. 1. Proposed dynamic forecasting mechanism based on feedback process. Forecasts one year (for all scenarios); Forecasts modied based on events'

occurrences in a given year (for all scenarios); New time-series (for all scenarios)=The modied forecast +Old time-series.

Fig. 3. A simple MLP with two hidden layers.

Fig. 2. Neuron model.

953 N. Agami et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

Author's personal copy

The rest of this paper is organized as follows: In Section 2, we explain the research objective. In Section 3, we give an overview

on Neural Networks. Then in Section 4, we explain in details our proposed algorithm including the inputs, output and the

algorithm itself. Finally in Section 5, we give a numerical example and in Section 6 we conclude.

2. Research objective

TIA, as explained earlier, is a forecasting tool of considerable power that is relatively simple and easy to use. Although it enhances the

usefulness of purely quantitative forecasting methods by utilizing qualitative information from experts to generate alternative future

scenarios instead of a single surprise-free scenario, it suffers a basic limitation. The current TIA process employs a static forecasting

mechanism, i.e. it imports the base-forecast from an external forecasting engine and modies it according to the unprecedented future

events' occurrences during the simulationprocess. Our main hypothesis in this paper is that: For any given scenario, in a certainyear, if an

unprecedented event occurred, then feeding back this information to a neural network and allowing the network to re-train (before

forecasting), will producemoreresponsiveandrobust forecasts. Moreover toimprovethis dynamic process, inour research, weiteratethis

process every year as shown in the following gure.

Fig. 5. Standard method of performing time series prediction using a sliding window over the input sequencein this case, three time steps.

Fig. 4. Three types of transfer functions.

954 N. Agami et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

Author's personal copy

This proposed mechanism allows us to extend the forecasting time horizon while minimizing the degradation that occurs as

time goes by in the quality of produced forecasts.

A disadvantage of this proposed feedback process is that it takes considerable time to re-train the neural network for each

scenario in each year. However, as explained later in Section 4, we have devised a simplied mechanism to overcome this

disadvantage.

To summarize this section, our proposed approach suggests a dynamic forecasting mechanism rather than the static one

already applied. This is achieved by re-generating the forecasts (for all scenarios) each year after testing the occurrences of

unprecedented future events using a NN. Initially, the NN is trained on available historical data; then (for each scenario) before

generating a new forecast, the NN is re-trained on the new time-series (specied by item no. 3 in Fig. 1).

3. Neural networksTheoretical background

A neural network is dened as a powerful data modelling tool that is able to capture and represent complex input/output

relationships [1013]. The motivation for the development of neural network technology stems from the desire to develop an

articial system that could perform intelligent tasks similar to those performed by the human brain. Neural networks resemble

the human brain in the following two ways:

i. A neural network acquires knowledge through learning.

ii. A neural network's knowledge is stored within inter-neuron connection strengths known as synaptic weights.

The true power and advantage of neural networks lies in their ability to represent both linear and non-linear relationships and

in their ability to learn these relationships directly fromthe data being modelled. Traditional linear models are often inadequate as

many complex problems are characterized by non-linear behaviour. In this paper, one model of neural network is selected among

the main network architectures, namely the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). The basis of the model is the neuron structure as

shown in Fig. 2. These neurons act like parallel processing units. An articial neuron is a unit that performs a simple mathematical

operation on its inputs and imitates the functions of biological neurons and their unique process of learning.

From the previous gure, we will have:

v

k

=

X

m

j =1

x

j

w

kj

+ b

k

The neuron output will be:

y

k

= f v

k

Where w

kj

's are the interconnection weights and f is a non-linear activation function (usually the logistic functionsee Fig. 4).

NNs are characterized in principle by a network topology, a connection pattern, neural activation properties, training strategy

and ability to process data. The most common neural network model is the Multilayer Perceptron [1416]. This type of neural

network is known as a supervised model because it requires a desired output in order to learn. The goal of this type of network is to

create a model that correctly maps the input to the output using historical data so that the model can then be used to produce the

output when the desired output is unknown.

Fig. 3 shows a block diagram of a two hidden Layer Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The inputs are fed into the input layer and get

multiplied by interconnectionweights as they are passed fromthe input layer to the rst hidden layer. Within the rst hidden layer,

Table 2

Output.

Short name Full name Type Dimensions

SrMx Scenarios Matrix 2D-Matrix (NumM, 9)

Table 1

Inputs.

Short name Full name Type Dimensions

NumS Number of Scenarios Scalar

NumY Number of Years Scalar

NumE Number of Events Scalar

HistVect Time Series Vector Vector

MaxImpMx Maximum Impact Matrix 2D-Matrix (NumE, 3)

SSImpMx Steady-State Impact Matrix 2D-Matrix (NumE, 3)

TMaxMx Time to Maximum Impact Matrix 2D-Matrix (NumE, 3)

TSSMx Time to Steady-State Impact Matrix 2D-Matrix (NumE, 3)

ProbOccMx Probability of Occurrence Matrix 3D-Matrix (NumE, NumY, 3)

955 N. Agami et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

Author's personal copy

they get summed then processed by the nonlinear activation function (see Fig. 4). As the processed data leaves the rst hidden

layer, again it gets multiplied by interconnectionweights, then summed and processed by the second hidden layer. Finally the data

is multiplied by interconnection weights then process one last time within the output layer to produce the neural network output.

Fig. 6. Flow chart of the Main function. Note: Sr_Mult_Mx is a 2D-Matrix that stands for Scenarios Multipliers Matrix.

956 N. Agami et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

Author's personal copy

To perform any task, a set of experiments of an input/output mapping is needed to train the neural network. These data are one of

the most important factors to obtain reliable results from any trained NN.

There are a number of NN learning algorithms. For the purpose of our research, we used the Back Propagation algorithm based

on Gradient Descent method.

NNs have various applications that can generally be grouped into four categories: Clustering, Classication (pattern

recognition), Function Approximation and Forecasting. When used in forecasting, the NN task is to forecast some future values of a

time-sequenced data. First, the NNis trained over the input sequence and the input variables are assumed to be the lags X

(t)

, X

(t 1)

,

, etc. Then the prediction is given by (Fig. 5):

X

t + 1

= F X

t

; X

t 1

; N ; X

t L + 1

In a nutshell, a neural network can be considered as a learning model that is able to predict an output pattern when it recognizes a

given input pattern. Once trained, the neural network is able to recognize similarities when presented with a new input pattern,

resulting in a predicted output pattern [17,18].

Based on the previous and the fact that, a NNis a powerful forecasting tool that can be trained and hence learn fromexperience,

we proposed a NN-based enhancement for TIA. This proposed algorithm is explained in details in the next section.

4. Proposed algorithm

The newly proposed approach suggests re-generating the forecast each year, for each scenario after testing the occurrence of

unprecedented future events using a neural network model. It uses the Enhanced TIA [9] as the point of departure. After conducting the

steps of the Enhanced TIA and generating the scenarios multipliers matrix, we rst train the NN on the available time-series. Then, we

use the trained network to produce forecasts for one year ahead. These produced forecasts are then modied using the corresponding

multipliers for each scenario. Afterwards, we update the scenarios matrix (where each column represents an output scenario)

accordingly. Finally, we append the one year updated values to the end of the old time-series. The previous steps are repeated for each

year until the end of the forecasting horizon.

All the assumptions, inputs and output of the enhanced TIA algorithm hold true. However instead of the input Base Forecast

Vector (BaseFrVect), we restrict ourselves to use the input Historical time-series (HistVect) added as shown in the next table.

Fig. 7. Flow chart of the Compute_Sr_Mult_Mx_Compact function.

957 N. Agami et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

Author's personal copy

4.1. Inputs

The following table lists the inputs used in our proposed algorithm (Table 1):

4.2. Output

The single output of the algorithm is the Scenarios Matrix shown in the table below (Table 2):

4.3. Algorithm

Below, we shall explain in details, the functions of the proposed approach illustrated in the previous ow charts:

Fig. 6 outlines the Main function. Basically the function consists of a triple loops structure (the same case as in the enhanced

algorithm). The outer-loop is a counter on the number of scenarios to be generated (S=1,, NumSc). The inter-mediate loop is a

counter on the number of years we wish to study ahead (Y=1,, NumY); while the inner loop is a counter on the number events

Fig. 8. Flow chart of the GenSrMx function.

958 N. Agami et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

Author's personal copy

incorporated in the study (E=1,, NumE). Before entering the inner loop, the Scenarios Multipliers Matrix (Sr_Mult_Mx) is

initialized such that each element is set to 1. The inner loop then carries out the same steps of the Enhanced TIA [9] explained

earlier resulting in the Scenarios Multipliers Matrix (Sr_Mult_Mx).

Fig. 7 outlined the Compute_Sr_Mult_Mx_Compact function. This function computes the set of deciles associated with the set

of scenarios. Afterwards, we deal with the computed set of deciles instead of the original set of scenarios to lessen the

computational time and effort of the algorithm.

Fig. 8 outlines the function GenSrMx function. The function consists of double loops structure. The outer loop is a counter on

the number of scenarios to be generated (S=1,, NumSc), while the inner loop is a counter on the number years we wish to study

ahead (Y=1,, NumY). Before entering the inner loop, an auxiliary (vector) variable (TimeSeries) is dened. At the very

beginning, the value of this variable is set to equal the historical time series (HistVect). The inner loop then carries out the

following steps:

1. Trains the NN on available historical data.

2. Produces forecasts of one year ahead using the trained network.

3. Modies the values of the current year Y in a given scenario S using the corresponding multiplier.

4. Updates the scenarios matrix (SrMx) accordingly.

5. Appends the updated year values and the old time series (TimeSeries) to form the new time series.

The previous steps are repeated for each year until the end of the forecasting horizon.

Note that the algorithmwas implemented and tested using the MATLAB software and its associated Neural Network toolbox. It

was developed in such a way that enables it to be exible in the number of scenarios, events and years according the decision

maker's point of view and the data available.

1

This paper is a proof of concept. However, we are currently developing the proposed algorithm using the R Language [19] and

the associated AMORE (a more exible neural network) package. We selected the R Language in order to provide an open source

tool that can be easily used by futurists as it is a free scientic software environment for statistical computing.

5. Numerical example

The following example illustrates the use of the new approach:

Assume that the Egyptian Ministry of Tourism needs to study how some unprecedented events would affect the number of

tourists' arrivals in the future if they were said to occur. Two events (NumE=2) are incorporated in the study: Epidemic Diseases

(E1) and Currency Devaluation (E2). Should any of these events occur, the rst have negative impacts whereas the second have

positive impacts. 10,000 scenarios are generated (NumS=10,000) and the study is for ve years ahead (NumY=5). Real historical

1

The reader interested in the code can e-mail the authors.

Table 3

ProbOccMx.

Severity level: HIGH Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

E1 0.025 0.01 0.0375 0.05 0.0175

E2 0.0825 0.0475 0.01 0.0625 0.025

Severity level: MEDIUM Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

E1 0.075 0.0625 0.1 0.125 0.0625

E2 0.1 0.0925 0.05 0.125 0.075

Severity level: LOW Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

E1 0.125 0.1 0.175 0.2 0.15

E2 0.2 0.175 0.1 0.225 0.15

Table 4

MaxImpMx.

High Medium Low

E1 0.1275 0.075 0.0375

E2 0.15 0.0875 0.045

Table 5

SSImpMx.

High Medium Low

E1 0.1 0.04 0.0175

E2 0.125 0.0625 0.0375

959 N. Agami et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

Author's personal copy

values (time series) for the last fteen years (180 months) are available. The data of events (supposedly estimated earlier by

experts) is listed below (Table 3).

A. Probability of Occurrence Matrix (ProbOccMx)

B. Maximum Impact Matrix (MaxImpMx)

C. Steady-State Impact Matrix (SSImpMx)

D. Time (in months) to Maximum Impact Matrix (TMaxMx)

E. Time (in months) to Steady-State Impact Matrix (TSSMx)

From Tables 4 and 5, it is clear that for every event, the expected impact associated with the high degree of severity is greater

than that associated with mediumdegree of severity which is greater than the one associated with lowdegree of severity (Tables 6

and 7).

The next gure illustrates the original 15 years time-series (historical data) (Fig. 9).

The neural network MATLAB toolbox was used to create a fully connected feed-forward neural network with the following

parameter values, and was trained by back propagation technique:

Number of input nodes (lags)=10 (months)

Number of output nodes=12 (months, i.e. one year)

Hidden layers and hidden nodes=1 hidden layers with 3 hidden nodes

Activation functions=tansig (hidden layer) and purelin (output layer)

Learning rate=0.005

Error goal =0.05

Number of training epochs=1000

Momentum factor=0.1

After running the MATLAB program, we obtain the scenarios matrix. The next gure displays the 90th, 50th and 10th percentile

scenarios respectively (Fig. 10).

Fig. 9. Historical time series.

Table 7

TSSMx.

High Medium Low

E1 7 9 12

E2 2 3 5

Table 6

TMaxMx.

High Medium Low

E1 4 5 6

E2 1 2 3

960 N. Agami et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

Author's personal copy

We have run several experiments to validate the developed algorithm. The conducted experiments included incrementally

changing the impact values, directions and the probability of occurrence for each level of severity. By visually inspecting the gures

associated with these experiments (as shown in Fig. 7), we can verify that the algorithmworks logically and responds to changes in

a systematic way.

6. Concluding remarks and possible future work

The proper way to study the future is in terms of alternatives (scenarios); i.e. one should never anticipate a single or unique

future, but rather a spectrum of different possible futures.

Exploration of multiple futures is fundamental to the Futures Studies paradigm. Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) is an efcient

Futures Studies method designed specically for this purpose.

Neural Networks, as a Machine Learning technique, are powerful forecasting tools that seek pattern-based understanding of the

past through learning and training.

Integrating TIA and Neural Networks yields a powerful forecasting tool that adds a learning component and allows that model to

adjust to novel situations.

In a future research, a neural network forecaster can be used (as an external forecasting engine) in an RT-Delphi study. Along the

span of the study, experts can be guided by viewing the neural network forecasting output online before determining their

responses every time they visit the web-site to update their opinions.

Moreover, one might think of implanting a neural network within system dynamics models to identify the equations of rates or

auxiliary variables when it is not possible or considerably difcult to construct explicit equations as discussed by Alborzi [20].

This is because neural networks are capable of capturing the underlying structural relations between input and output variables

through training schemes using actual data.

Furthermore, one might as well think of building an Agent-Based Model (ABM) based on a neural network approach.

Acknowledgments

We would like to acknowledge the useful discussions and insightful remarks of Professors Mohamed Hassan Rasmy and

Mohammed El-Beltagy of Cairo University and Professor Ali Hadi, the Vice Provost and Director of Graduate Studies and Research at

the American University in Cairo (AUC). We as well, would like to thank Nesreen Ahmed from Cairo University for her help during

the development process of this work. This work is part of the Data Mining for Improving Tourism Industry Revenue in Egypt

research project within the Egyptian Data Mining and Computer Modeling Center of Excellence.

References

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies.

[2] J. Ramos, Action research and futures studies, Futures 38 (2006).

[3] E. Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, World Future Society, USA, 2005.

[4] P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Currency, 1996.

[5] T. Gordon, Trend Impact Analysis, Futures Research Methodology V2, CD ROM, the Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University,

2003.

Fig. 10. Future scenarios generated.

961 N. Agami et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

Author's personal copy

[6] T. Gordon, The Delphi method, Futures Research Methodology V2, CD ROM, the Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University,

2003.

[7] T. Gordon, A. Pease, RT Delphi: an efcient, round-less almost real time Delphi method, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 73 (4) (2006).

[8] T. Gordon, J. Glenn, Environmental Scanning, Futures Research Methodology V2, CD ROM, the Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations

University, 2003.

[9] N. Agami, A. Omran, M. Saleh, H. El-Shishiny, An Enhanced Approach for Trend Impact Analysis, Technol. Forecast. Soc Change 75 (9) (2008) 14391450.

[10] Ethem Alpaydin, Introduction to Machine Learning, MIT Press, 2004.

[11] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articial_neural_network.

[12] S. Haykin, Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation, 2nd edition. Prentice Hall PTR, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 1999.

[13] M. Hayati, Y. Shirvany, Articial neural network approach for short term load forecasting for Illam region, Int. J. Electr., Comput. Syst. Eng. 1 (2) (2007).

[14] M.T. Hagan, H.B. Demuth, M.H. Beale, Neural Network Design, PWS Publishing Company, Boston, Massachusetts, 1996.

[15] J.M. Zurada, Introduction to Articial Neural Systems, West Publishing Company, Saint Paul, Minnesota, 1992.

[16] N. Kamel, A. Atiya, N. El Gayar, H. El-Shishiny, An Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting, Econometrics Review, (2009)

in press.

[17] S. Bengio, F. Fessant, D. Collobert, A Connectionist Systemfor Medium-termHorizon Time Series Prediction, Proc. Intl. Workshop Application Neural Networks

to Telecoms, 1995, pp. 308315.

[18] D.W. Patterson, K.H. Chan, C.M. Tan, Time Series Forecasting with Neural Nets: A Comparative Study, Proc. the international conference on neural network

applications to signal processing NNASP, Singapore, 1993, pp. 269274.

[19] http://www.r-project.org/.

[20] http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2006/proceed/papers/ALBOR145.pdf.

Nedaa Agami is currently an assistant lecturer in the Department of Operations Research and Decision Support, Faculty of Computers and Information at Cairo

University, and has just received her M.Sc. degree with the Data Mining and Computer Modeling Center of Excellence in conjunction with the Ministry of

Communications and Information Technology (MCIT) in Egypt. Her current research interests include futures studies, scenario planning, systems thinking and

simulation and modeling.

Amir Atiya received his B.S. degree in 1982 from Cairo University and the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in 1986 and 1991 from Caltech, Pasadena, CA, all in electrical

engineering. Dr. Atiya is currently a Professor at the Department of Computer Engineering, Cairo University. He recently held several visiting appointments, such as

in Caltech and in Chonbuk National University, S. Korea. His research interests are in the areas of neural networks, machine learning, pattern recognition,

computational nance, and Monte Carlo methods. He obtained several awards, such as the Kuwait Prize in 2005. Currently, he is an associate editor for the IEEE

Transactions on Neural Networks.

Mohamed Saleh is currently an Associate Professor at the Department of Decision Support, Faculty of Computers and Information at Cairo University. He has got a

Ph.D. in System Dynamics from the University of Bergen, Norway. He also got his M.Sc. from Bergen University, and a Master of Business Administration (MBA)

from Maastricht School of Management, Netherlands. Mohamed is also an Adjunct Professor in the System Dynamics Group at the University of Bergen, Norway.

His current research interests are mainly system dynamics, simulation, futures studies and revenue management optimization.

Dr. Hisham El-Shishiny is currently Senior Scientist and Manager of Advanced Technology and Center for Advanced Studies at IBM Technology Development

Center in Cairo. He received his Ph.D. and M.Sc. in Computer Science with highest honors from Nancy University in France and his B.Sc. in Electronics and

Communications Engineering from Cairo University. He has also completed a two year post-graduate program in Operations Research and conducted post-

graduate studies in Solid State Sciences at the American University in Cairo. His current research interests are Data Mining, Machine Learning, Image Processing and

Visualization, HPC, Optimization, Knowledge Management and Natural Language Processing.

962 N. Agami et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 952962

- TunnelDiunggah olehMohamed H. Jiffry
- part06.pdfDiunggah olehNihal Pratap Ghanathe
- Data-Mining and Knowledge Discovery, Neural Networks InDiunggah olehElena Galeote Lopez
- 10.1.1.49.5686Diunggah olehbright_james
- 30..pdfDiunggah olehlavesh velip
- 12 Artificial Neural NetworksDiunggah olehRamana Yellapu
- Gianluca Tempesti- Architectures and design methodologies for bio-inspired computing machinesDiunggah olehIrokk
- An Introduction to Neural Networks PythonDiunggah olehJessé Oliveira
- 1.1.7.neuralnetworksDiunggah olehLe Thai Linh
- Currency PredictionDiunggah olehMohammad Irwansyah Zulkarnain
- 55207_icacea1419Diunggah olehjeffry purwanto
- NN-Ch2Diunggah olehmansirohit
- FeloDiunggah olehehsan_sa405
- Algorythmic:Statistical ProjectionDiunggah olehmadequal2658
- Learning rules of ANNDiunggah olehbukyaravindar
- Generalized Linear Classifiers in NLPDiunggah olehDmitry Dontsov
- Real-Time Simulation of Biologically Realistic StochasticDiunggah olehJohn Leons E
- Neural Network Ensembles using Interval Neutrosophic Sets and Bagging for Mineral Prospectivity Prediction and Quantification of UncertaintyDiunggah olehAnonymous 0U9j6BLllB
- DCDIS-2007.pdfDiunggah olehjkl316
- chapter 5Diunggah olehAmresh
- Lecture Notes 5Diunggah olehHarshaVardhanK
- Lecture (1) (AutoRecovered).docxDiunggah olehahmed
- QuestionsDiunggah olehjithin
- Ghanshyam Projet Report 1o1Diunggah olehanshu339
- Paper 15-A Hybrid Evolutionary Functional Link Artificial Neural Network for Data Mining and ClassificationDiunggah olehEditor IJACSA
- Review of Neural NetworkDiunggah olehManvir Singh Gill
- NNDiunggah olehDeepti Chandra Verma
- Image Super Resolution ReportDiunggah olehNikhil Gupta
- neural network for plc.pdfDiunggah olehMarcelo Moya Cajas
- bbottlessdarticleDiunggah olehapi-3706534

- LA GRAN CAIDA.pdfDiunggah olehxbmart
- Guia 1 Ejercicios Resueltos de Aplicación del Principio de los Trabajos VirtualesDiunggah olehJossimar Ortega Aliaga
- 14Diunggah olehnukita66
- C_SharpDiunggah olehvanee3
- cursoreformascoiijunio12-121126021808-phpapp02.pdfDiunggah olehGiuseppe
- CTE Parte 2 DB SE-ADiunggah olehclayman
- reparto de cargas.pdfDiunggah olehleo_turf
- VigaCAS _1_0_Diunggah olehLuis Fernando Jeri Guillén
- 1-social-trading-para-dummies-by-josef-ajram.pdfDiunggah olehGiuseppe
- Esta Di Stica Ingeniero sDiunggah olehSteven Andres Aros Lizcano
- Tema 1 - Buenas prácticas con VMware.pdfDiunggah olehAdriana Matute Martinez
- Tema 1 - Buenas prácticas con VMware.pdfDiunggah olehAdriana Matute Martinez
- Router Ch6643e User Guide SpDiunggah olehprofesorinfocuartopicacho
- probabilidad y estadistica, 760 problemas resueltos-murray r spiegelDiunggah olehCiencia Politica Uahc
- probabilidad y estadistica, 760 problemas resueltos-murray r spiegelDiunggah olehCiencia Politica Uahc
- Introduction to Visual Studio and CSharpDiunggah olehnebanuit
- Programa_LOTO.pdfDiunggah olehIvan R Barajas
- C_SharpDiunggah olehvanee3
- Matemáticas para el Análisis Económico - Knut Sydsaeter & Peter HammodDiunggah olehmmerchan74
- 1 Guia Practica de MotoresDiunggah olehGiuseppe
- 6-Alan Kelly Electrical Legislation and Safe Working Procedure InformationDiunggah olehGiuseppe
- Catalog-Hygienic-valves-VARIVENT-ECOVENT-2015-05-11-EN_tcm25-16576.pdfDiunggah olehGiuseppe
- Esta Di Stica Ingeniero sDiunggah olehSteven Andres Aros Lizcano
- el lenguaje de programación c#Diunggah olehinfobits
- C# Users.pdfDiunggah olehjvlivs8
- Anaya.la.Biblia.de.C#Diunggah olehPandorum Cronico
- Tema 1 - Buenas prácticas con VMware.pdfDiunggah olehAdriana Matute Martinez
- 2-guia-practica-de-motores.pdfDiunggah olehGiuseppe
- Router Ch6643e User Guide SpDiunggah olehprofesorinfocuartopicacho
- probabilidad y estadistica, 760 problemas resueltos-murray r spiegelDiunggah olehCiencia Politica Uahc

- Ss 01 Link Executive Skills Questionnair TeenDiunggah olehRobinBernstein
- lesson 2 adjectives revised 4Diunggah olehapi-270873656
- Hourly Performance AppraisalDiunggah olehDenis Knobloch
- Philippine Education HistoryDiunggah olehMaritess Cawili Dayrit
- photo essayDiunggah olehapi-314063193
- The Psychology of PianoDiunggah olehClara-Schumann-1985
- Bachelor of Science 2014Diunggah olehTing Sie Kim
- A study on customer preference of induction cooker.docxDiunggah olehvineet lalmuni
- Bowler Lesson Plan November 7 11Diunggah olehMaggie Bowler
- Research Paper - Work Life Balance of Academic Sector Employees by Shwetang Panchal & Shruti Rana (Assistant Professor at Parul INstitute of Business AdministrationDiunggah olehShwetang Panchal
- CSR Initiatives by TCSDiunggah olehGeetika D
- Employability GuideDiunggah olehcomprop
- JEE Information Brochure 2011Diunggah olehAshutosh Kumar Pandey
- INTRODUCTION to Pavlov and MathematicsDiunggah olehDaniel Ayodele Dada
- double entry journal 3Diunggah olehapi-340138731
- Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel - WikipediaDiunggah olehDiana Ghius
- Swot AnaysisDiunggah olehKaran Panchal
- June 5 Balance and Unbalance ForceDiunggah olehJeazel Buenavides Mosendo
- ua jimmyhilley resumeDiunggah olehapi-270446671
- Problem of Practice Tuning ProtocolDiunggah olehdburris
- Minhaj Al Saliheen Complete-Sayyed Kamal Al-HaydariDiunggah olehالسيد كمال الحيدري
- Critical Social Theory IntroDiunggah olehMarie Ee
- professional growth planDiunggah olehapi-268994561
- Ultra Short Throw BrochureDiunggah olehMugiraneza
- full paper revisedDiunggah olehapi-305009900
- Consumer Decision Making ModelsDiunggah olehDhanesswary Santhiramohan
- The Effectiveness of Varying Birthing Positions in Laboring WomenDiunggah olehLila
- 20170515. CVMartaFernándezDiunggah olehAnonymous p0wV9bf
- Vasser v. NCAA & Northwestern UniversityDiunggah olehdannyecker_crain
- alternative measures to restraintsDiunggah olehapi-301611629