1

REMAINING LIFE ESTIMATION ON 6.6 kV RATED XLPE CABLES

Sheng Haifang and S.Birlasekaran

School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798

Abstract

Aging model of service aged XLPE cables is built by accelerated aging test. Part of XLPE cable laid in
1993 was removed from distribution network in 2000. They were further aged in the laboratory for
about 8000 hours at an elevated temperature. Four identical samples were taken and they were aged
separately at 60C, 80C, 100C and 120C respectively in separate ovens. Periodic depolarization,
polarization and harmonic current analysis and dielectrometry studies were carried out to extract aging
indicators. In this paper, we present the analysis on depolarization current measurement using the
parameters derived with extended Debye model. Variation of parameters as aging indicators is
estimated and a life model is built. Thermal endurance graph, temperature index, thermal endurance
profile and halving interval as described in IEC 216 are determined by the relevant aging markers. The
model is verified for prediction by taking the readings on similar cable samples removed from service
in 2000 but laid in 1997 and 1999 respectively.

Key words: Aging test, XLPE cable, Debye theory, Temperature index




1. INTRODUTION

The aging problems on cable like water and electrical
tree formation and thermal oxidation processes leading
to cavities etc. are influenced by electrical, thermal,
mechanical and morphological properties. Aging
tendency should be diagnosed to determine the
remaining service life of a power cable using the Non-
destructive methods. Many studies were done to
understand the degradation mechanism and a summary is
given in Table 1 of reference [1]. We identified aging
factors and developed life models to predict the
remaining life. This paper presents the results of
identified aging markers based on measurements on
3.3kV/6.6kV rated XLPE cables used by Power Grid,
Singapore.


2. THERMAL ENDURANCE PROPERTIES

IEC methods [2-4] to determine and express the thermal
endurance of electrical insulating materials reveal a clear
trend of degradation related to operating temperature.
Destructive Test methods [4] have been developed
which enable the validity of the underlying physical
model to be verified. A complete test program for
materials produces the temperature index (TI) which is
one-point characteristic. TI is the operating temperature
in degree Celsius to get a certain (normally 20,000)
hours of thermal endurance period. The one-point
evaluation does not permit a complete description of a
materials thermal endurance behaviour. A composite
index called the thermal endurance profile (TEP) is
defined. It is known as the thermal endurance graph
(Arrhenius graph) shown in Figure 1 in which the
logarithm of time (t) needed to reach a specified end-
point in a thermal endurance test is plotted versus the
reciprocal of operating absolute temperature (T). The
slope of the thermal endurance graph is now explicitly
given by means of the easily comprehensible halving
interval (HIC). HIC is defined as the number
corresponding to the temperature interval in degrees
Celsius which expressed the halving of the time to end-
point taken at the temperature of the TI.


Figure 1. Thermal Endurance Graph
2
3. MEASUREMENT SYSTEM FOR AGING
STUDIES

A computer controlled on-line measurement system was
developed with GPIB-controlled instruments and
Labview software [5,6]. For the reported study on
depolarization current measurement, the initial charging
voltage was kept at 500 Vdc to get good signal to noise
ratio.

3.1 Cable Samples

The cross section of the tested distribution cable samples
supplied by Power Grid, Singapore is shown in Figure 2.
The year of manufacturing was 1993 and it was removed
from continuous service from the 6.6 kV distribution in
March 2000. The cable sample was cut into four pieces
of 65mm in length to study the aging behavior at
different thermal loading.


Figure 2. The cross section of the cable specimen

3.2 Aging Studies

For the accelerated thermal aging, four laboratory ovens
of cubical size with length of 0.6m were used to heat the
four cable samples. They were heated at constant 60C,
80C, 100C and 120C continuously to study the aging
behavior of cables with thermal loading. It was planned
to study the behavior up to 8000 hours continuously. All
the four aging cable samples were tested periodically
using the depolarization current measurement and other
condition monitoring methods. The response was
processed by signal processing techniques to extract
characterizing parameters.


4. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS

3D plots of the depolarization current variation of cables
aged at 60C, 80C and 120C from 0 hours to 5000
hours of aging time are shown in Figures 3 to 5
respectively with the characteristics of Year 97 and
Year 99 cables. Year 97 cable was in service (field
aged) for 3 years. It was removed from service in 2000
and was kept in the laboratory at 25C until tested. Year
99 cable was manufactured in 1999 and it was in
service for one year only.



Figure 3. Variation of depolarization current
with measurement time and aging time at 60C



Figure 4. Variation of depolarization current
with measurement time and aging time at 80C


Figure 5. Variation of depolarization current
with measurement time and aging time at 120C
3
Before aging the cables in oven, the measured
depolarization current was 25nA at t
m
=0 and 0.1nA at
t
m
=1800 s as shown in Figure 3 to Figure 5. The slope of
its characteristics was 0.014 nA/s at t
m
=0. After aging
the cables for 8000 hours, the measured depolarization
current decreased to 4.2 nA at 60C of aging with the
rate of change of its characteristics as 0.0023 nA/s when
t
m
=0. While at 120C of aging, the measured current was
3.4 nA with a slope of 0.0019 nA/s. The initial
depolarization current and the rate of current change
with measuring time were decreasing with aging for all
the cases.

5. EXTENDED DEBYE MODEL

Figure 6. Extended Debye model
with n relaxation elements

By Extended Debye theory [7], any dielectric
depolarization current may be viewed as a sum of
leakage ionic current (Rg), geometrical capacitive
current (Cg) and various absorption currents (Rpn and
Cpn). It is well known that Cpn and Rpn determine the
aging trend. The relaxation parameters can be identified
by fitting the experimental results to this model. One can
select the number of elements (n) from 1 to 11 or more
to fit the current measurements using equation (1). Since
it is a virtual short -circuited depolarization current
measurement, the effects of Cg and Rg can be neglected.

Un
Cp Rp
t
Rp
I
n
i
n n n

=

=1
)) exp(
1
( (1)
Figure 7. Error variation with Debye fitted order,
n= 1,3,5,7,9 and 11
Figure 7 shows the variation of sum of error value
between measurement and fitting with n RC elements.
The error decreases monotonically with n.

6. ANALYSIS TO THE EXPERIMENTAL
RESULTS

From Figure 7, it can be understood that a reasonable fit
can be made by taking 3 RC elements or 6 parameters. A
typical fitting on the measured depolarization current
after 3000 hours under 80C is shown in Figure 8 with
the fitted parameters and the typical 3 peak Q occurrence
times (5,6). In all the cases, as the iteration time is
increased, the error decreased.


Figure 8. Depolarization current response fitted by
Debye Model (Aged 3000 hours under 80C)

Fitting was done on all the measured responses of four
cable specimens aged for 5000 hours under 60C, 80C,
100C and 120C. Table 1 shows the fitted parameters
on the sample aged at 80C under different periods.

Table 1: Fitted RC- parameters of Debye model from
the measured depolarization current response at 80C
Aging
time
0 hours 1000
hours
2000
hours
3000
hours
4000
hours
5000
hours
Cp1(F) 14e-10 8.1e-10 4.9e-10 3.9e-10 2.5e-10 2.6e-10
Rp1() 1.8e9 2.6e9 3.5e9 6.1e9 5.3e9 5.6e9
Cp2(F) 28e-10 20e-10 13e-10 9.0e-10 3.6e-10 3.0e-10
Rp2() 0.75e9 1.2e10 1.2e10 4.3e10 2.9e10 4.5e10
Cp3(F) 220e-10 150e-10 100e-10 19e-10 14e-10 8.4e-10
Rp3() 1.0e11 1.5e11 2.7e11 5.7e11 5.3e11 5.3e11

It can be seen that the parameters vary with the aging
period and it is planned to evaluate the thermal
endurance properties and the remaining life estimation
using the trend of variation. In Figure 9, the variation of
the fitted parameters with aging time is plotted.
Smoothing of the data is done by second order
polynomial curve fitting and the new results are
tabulated in Table 2. Rp1, Rp2 and Rp3 increased
linearly with aging time. Cp1, Cp2 and Cp3 decreased
with aging time to some power law.
4


Figure 9. Variation of parameters at 80C with and
without smoothing

Table 2: Evaluated parameters at 80C after smoothing
Aging
time
0 hours 1000
hours
2000
hours
3000
hours
4000
hours
5000
hours
Cp1(F) 14e10 8.7e-10 5.3e-10 3.2e-10 2.3e-10 2.8e-10
Rp1() 1.5e9 3.0e9 4.2e9 5.1e9 5.6e9 5.8e9
Cp2(F) 28e-10 20e-10 13e-10 8.1e-10 4.6e-10 2.6e-10
Rp2() 0.56e10 1.3e10 2.1e10 2.8e10 3.6e10 4.4e10
Cp3(F) 230e-10 150e-10 83e-10 39e-10 13e-10 5.0e-10
Rp3() 0.63e11 2.0e11 3.1e11 4.1e11 4.9e11 5.5e11

Similar analysis is done at all the temperatures of aging
and the smoothed data is plotted in Figure 10.



Figure 10. Variation of Debye parameters at 60C,
80C, 100C and 120C
The variation of these parameters is fitted to
mathematical functions. In Figure 11, the variation of
Rp2 at 60C, 80C, 100C and 120C with aging time up
to 5000 hours is shown as solid lines.


Figure 11. Variation of parameter Rp2 with aging time

Variation of Rp2 with respect to aging time (t) and
operating temperature (T) can be described by Equation
2.
At 60C,
1 1
2
1
060 _ 2 c t b t a Rp + + =
At 80C,
2 2
2
2
080 _ 2 c t b t a Rp + + =
At 100C,
3 3
2
3
100 _ 2 c t b t a Rp + + = (2)
At 120C,
4 4
2
4
120 _ 2 c t b t a Rp + + =

In the equation (2), a
i
is related with aging temperature
(T).
) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 2
2
T C t T B t T A T Rp + + = (3)

) (T A , ) (T B and ) (T C are all second order
polynomials which are the function of temperature T.

In Figure 11, the dashed lines show the fitted results
using equation (3) to fit the variation of Rp2 with aging
time at operating temperatures of 60C, 80C, 100C and
120C.

Figure 12 shows the variation of all the 6 parameters
after such analysis. An error analysis is made to evaluate
the fitted result with actual measurements. Table 3 lists
the summed error as given by equation (4) at various T.
( % 100

o
fit o
I
I I
) (4)
A maximum deviation of 9.3% is obtained. Hence
equation (3) describes the life model of cable insulation
deterioration. In Figure 12, it can be seen that the
variation of Cp3 is not significant. The variation of Rp1
with aging time at various Ts is not sequential. Hence
the remaining 4 parameters are taken into account for
analysis.
5


Figure 12. Variation of Debye
parameters after smoothing

Table 3. Variation of smoothed data on current
with the measured depolarization current magnitude
Aging time (hour) 60C 80C 100C 120C
0 2.7% 2.3% 4.7% 1.9%
1000 1.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
2000 6.6% 2.5% 1.3% 3.4%
3000 9.3% 4.1% 2.9% 7.2%
4000 3.9% 4.7% 2.5% 3.6%
5000 8.4% 6.2% 1.8% 1.9%

From the 4 parameters, thermal endurance properties and
remaining life estimation are carried out. In Figure 12,
End point was marked in the Y-axis matching with aging
time of 5000 hours at 60C. For example, in Figure 11,
under 60C, Rp2 will be 3.7E10 Ohm at the aging time
of 5000 hours. For that end point, the cable samples
under 80C, 100C and 120 C needed 3663 hours, 2653
hours and 2003 hours separately. The fixed end point
limits for the 4 parameters are listed as y in Table 4.

Table 4. Parameters Related with TI
60C 80C 100C 120C
x y x y x y x y
Cp1 5000 5.13
e-10 F
2641 5.13
e-10 F
2063 5.13
e-10 F
2173 5.13
e-10 F
Cp2 5000 1.45
e-9 F
2272 1.45
e-9 F
1819 1.45
e-9 F
1519 1.45
e-9 F
Rp2 5000 3.27
e10
3663 3.27
e10
2653 3.27
e10
2003 3.27
e10
Rp3 5000 2.85
e11
3855 2.85
e11
2339 2.85
e11
721 2.85
e11
x--- Aging time at different temperatures (T) (hours)
y--- End point criterion

Thermal endurance graphs for the above 4 parameters
Cp1, Cp2, Rp2 and Rp3 are plotted in Figures 13, 14, 15
and 16. Evaluated TI, HIC and TEP are listed in the
figures. In Figures 13 to 16, logarithm of aging time to
reach an end point at various operating temperatures is
plotted as Y-axis variable. The reciprocal of
corresponding operating temperature is shown in X-axis.



Figure 13. Parameter Cp1 Thermal Endurance Graph



Figure 14. Parameter Cp2 Thermal Endurance Graph

Cp1 and Cp2 vary linearly in Figures 13 and 14
respectively. Evaluated TI is around 36C to 37C for
20,000 hours of operation. For every 8C to 8.5C rise,
the life of cable reduces by half. Evaluated TEP lies
around 0.617 indicating the ratio of temperature to
reduce the operating life by 4 times.

Rp2 and Rp3 vary nonlinearly in Figures 15 and 16
respectively indicating that these parameters vary slowly
al lower temperature of operation. Evaluated TI is
around 22C to 24C for 20,000 hours of operation.
Since it is non-linear in characteristics, HIC is high in
the order of 13.6C to 16.7C to reduce life by half.
6
Correspondingly TEP is low in the order of 0.37 to
0.39 indicating high ratio of operating temperature to
reduce life by 4 times.




Figure 15. Parameter Rp2 Thermal Endurance Graph




Figure 16. Parameter Rp3 Thermal Endurance Graph

For remaining life determination, the characteristics of
the cable Y-97 and Y-99 were evaluated in the form
of Debye parameters. Using Equation (3), the remaining
life of cable is determined. If we operate the Y-97cable
at 60C of operating temperature, the predicted
remaining life is 7866 hours to 8195 hours using Cp1
and Cp2. While with Rp2 and Rp3, it is around 14435
hours. For Y-99 cable at 60C of operating
temperature, the predicted remaining life is 9960 hours
to 11458 hours using Cp1 and Cp2 respectively. With
Rp2 and Rp3, the estimated remaining life is around
15320 hours. At high temperatures, this value reduced.

7. CONCLUSION
From the experiments and analysis, the following
conclusions can be made:

1) Extracted parameters using extended Debye model
change with aging time and aging temperature
gradually.

2) The variation of parameters is fitted to 2-order
polynomial that can be used to build life model by
fixing End/Threshold -point criterion.

3) Evaluated thermal endurance properties indicate that
the variation of Cp1 and Cp2 is linear while Rp2
and Rp3 is not linear. Taking the linear
characteristics, TI indicates that the cable has to
be operated around 37C. The HIC of the tested
cable is around 8 to 8.5C.

4) Taking the tested cable to have 5000 hours of life,
the predicted remaining life of Y97 cable using
linear characteristics at 60C is around 7866 to 8195
hours while for Y99 cable is around 9960 to 11458
hours under similar condition.

8. REFERENCES

[1] J. Densley, An Overview of Aging Mechanisms and
diagnostics for extruded power cables, Power Engineer
Society Winter meeting, 2000, IEEE Vol.3, 2000, pp
1587-1592.

[2] IEC 216-1 Guide for the Determination of Thermal
Endurance Properties of Electrical Insulating Materials,
Part 1: General guidelines for ageing procedures and
evaluation of test results, 1987.

[3] IEC 60505Evaluation and qualification of electrical
insulation systems, 2
nd
Edition, 1999-12.

[4] IEC 216-2 Guide for the Determination of Thermal
Endurance Properties of Electrical Insulating Materials,
Part 2: List of materials and available tests, 1987.

[5] Sheng Haifang, S. Birlasekaran, and Cao Xiaolong,
Diagnosis of Power Cable Insulation Using Isothermal
Relaxation Current Technique, Proceeding of the 6
th

International Conference on Properties and Applications
of Dielectric Materials, June 21-26 2000, Xian, China.

[6] Sheng Haifang, S. Birlasekaran, Aging Studies on
field aged XLPE Cable, Proceeding of the International
Power Engineering Conference 2001 (IPEC 2001), May
17-19, Singapore.

[7] Uno Gafvert and Ering Ildstad, Modeling Return
Voltage Measurements of Multi-layer Insulation
Systems, Proceedings of the 4
th
International
Conference on Properties and Applications of Dielectric.
Materials July 3-8, 1994, Brisbane Australia, P123-126.