KJH

Maine East Debate 2014-2015 Caucus 1AC Prelims MELL
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1AC

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Inherency
Military AUV deployments are inevitable and trigger their DA but research-driven
AUVs WILL DECLINE -North American demands share of market will fall in long run
The Press and Journal, 4-24 *World demand for AUVs Poised to Soar, The Press and Journal,
4/24/2014, https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/uncategorized/46986/world-demand-for-auvs-
poised-to-soar/] *edited for gendered language; edited words are striked out*
The demand for unmanned technology will nearly double the global autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) fleet,
according to new forecasts. Analysts Douglas-Westwood (DW) credited strong military demand and renewed
appetite from the commercial sector, including oil and gas, for the anticipated spike. According to DWs
findings, the global fleet will increase by 42% over the next four years, rising to 825 units in 2018. The greatest
demand is expected to come from North America. AUVs have been in the headlines lately because a US unit is currently
scouring the Indian Ocean floor for traces of a missing Malaysian passenger aircraft, flight MH370 Report author Eduardo Ribeiro said: The
military sector makes up 50% of AUV demand, with North America accounting for 75% of this market in
2014. However, this market share may decrease to 70% by 2018, as emerging economies increasingly invest in their
military fleets. Overall growth of military demand in AUVs closely mirrors the investment in unmanned aircraft so called drones. Increasing
environmental awareness continues to drive demand for use of AUVs on research activities, with environmental
sensing and research mapping combined forming approximately 47% of the current AUV fleet. Report editor
Murray Dormer credited deepwater oil and gas activities for rising demand from regions including Latin
America and Africa. He added: North America will continue to dominate global AUV expenditure,
predominantly on military unmanned technology, although the regions market share is forecast to
decrease from 64% in 2014 to 60% by 2018. Africa and Latin America are set to experience the highest growth, driven by
deepwater oil and gas activities in pre-salt areas. Demand in Asia will be varied, with research activities in Japan, deepwater expenditure in
India, Indonesia and Malaysia and military investment in China.


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Plan Text
The United States federal government should substantially increase its non-military
autonomous underwater vehicle exploration of the Earth's ocean.


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Advantage 1: Disease

Current antibiotic resistance medicine are ineffectivethe plan is key to develop new
techniques and procedures
Stephens 14 (Pippa Stephens, Health reporter, BBC News)(Antibiotic resistance now 'global threat',
WHO warns, 30 April 2014, BBC, http://www.bbc.com/news/health-27204988)
Resistance to antibiotics poses a "major global threat" to public health, says a new report by the World
Health Organization (WHO). It analysed data from 114 countries and said resistance was happening now "in every
region of the world". It described a "post-antibiotic era", where people die from simple infections that have
been treatable for decades. There were likely to be "devastating" implications unless "significant" action
was taken urgently, it added. The report focused on seven different bacteria responsible for common serious diseases such as
pneumonia, diarrhoea and blood infections. It suggested two key antibiotics no longer work in more than half of
people being treated in some countries. One of them - carbapenem - is a so-called "last-resort" drug
used to treat people with life-threatening infections such as pneumonia, bloodstream infections, and infections in
newborns, caused by the bacteria K.pneumoniae. Bacteria naturally mutate to eventually become immune to antibiotics, but the misuse of
these drugs - such as doctors over-prescribing them and patients failing to finish courses - means it is happening much faster than expected.
The WHO says more new antibiotics need to be developed, while governments and individuals should take steps to slow the process of growing
resistance. In its report, it said resistance to antibiotics for E.coli urinary tract infections had increased from "virtually zero" in the 1980s to
being ineffective in more than half of cases today. In some countries, it said, resistance to antibiotics used to treat the bacteria "would not work
in more than half of people treated". Gonorrhoea treatment 'failure' Dr Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general at WHO, said: "Without urgent,
coordinated action by many stakeholders, the world is headed for a post-antibiotic era, in which common infections and minor injuries which
have been treatable for decades can once again kill." He said effective antibiotics had been one of the "pillars" to help people live longer,
healthier lives, and benefit from modern medicine. "Unless we take significant actions to improve efforts to prevent
infections and also change how we produce, prescribe and use antibiotics, the world will lose more and
more of these global public health goods and the implications will be devastating," Dr Fukuda added. The report
also found last-resort treatment for gonorrhoea, a sexually-transmitted infection which can cause infertility, had "failed" in the UK. It was the
same in Austria, Australia, Canada, France, Japan, Norway, South Africa, Slovenia and Sweden, it said. More than a million people are infected
with gonorrhoea across the world every day, the organisation said. 'Wake-up call' The report called for better hygiene, access to clean water,
infection control in healthcare facilities, and vaccination to reduce the need for antibiotics. Last year, the chief medical officer for England, Prof
Dame Sally Davies, said the rise in drug-resistant infections was comparable to the threat of global warming. Dr
Jennifer Cohn, medical director of Medecins sans Frontiers' Access Campaign, said: "We see horrendous rates of antibiotic
resistance wherever we look in our field operations, including children admitted to nutritional centres in Niger, and people
in our surgical and trauma units in Syria. "Ultimately, WHO's report should be a wake-up call to governments to introduce incentives for
industry to develop new, affordable antibiotics that do not rely patents and high prices and are adapted to the needs of developing countries."
She added: "What we urgently need is a solid global plan of action which provides for the rational use of
antibiotics so quality-assured antibiotics reach those who need them, but are not overused or priced
beyond reach." Professor Nigel Brown, president of the UK Society for General Microbiology, said it was vital microbiologists and other
researchers worked together to develop new approaches to tackle antimicrobial resistance. "These approaches will include new
antibiotics, but should also include studies to develop new rapid-diagnostic devices, fundamental
research to understand how microbes become resistant to drugs, and how human behaviour influences the spread of
resistance."


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Antibiotic Resistance is inevitable and happening nowdrugs are tapering off and
bacteria are evolving quickly
Mckenna 2013 (Maryn, independent journalist and author, Senior Fellow at the Schuster Institute for
Investigative Journalism at Brandeis. Imagining the Post-Antibiotics Future, 11/20/13, FERNnews: Non-
profit investigative journalism on the subjects of food, agriculture and environmental health in
partnership with local and national media outlets. https://medium.com/p/892b57499e77)
Predictions that we might sacrifice the antibiotic miracle have been around almost as long as the drugs
themselves. Penicillin was first discovered in 1928 and battlefield casualties got the first non-experimental doses in 1943, quickly saving
soldiers who had been close to death. But just two years later, the drugs discoverer Sir Alexander Fleming warned that its benefit might not
last. Accepting the 1945 Nobel Prize in Medicine, he said: It is not difficult to make microbes resistant to penicillin in the
laboratory by exposing them to concentrations not sufficient to kill them There is the danger that the ignorant man may easily underdose
himself and by exposing his microbes to non-lethal quantities of the drug make them resistant. As a biologist, Fleming knew that evolution
was inevitable: sooner or later, bacteria would develop defenses against the compounds the nascent
pharmaceutical industry was aiming at them. But what worried him was the possibility that misuse would speed the
process up. Every inappropriate prescription and insufficient dose given in medicine would kill weak bacteria but let the strong survive. (As
would the micro-dose growth promoters given in agriculture, which were invented a few years after Fleming spoke.) Bacteria can
produce another generation in as little as twenty minutes; with tens of thousands of generations a year
working out survival strategies, the organisms would soon overwhelm the potent new drugs. Flemings
prediction was correct. Penicillin-resistant staph emerged in 1940, while the drug was still being given to only a few patients. Tetracycline was
introduced in 1950, and tetracycline-resistant Shigella emerged in 1959; erythromycin came on the market in 1953, and erythromycin-resistant
strep appeared in 1968. As antibiotics became more affordable and their use increased, bacteria developed defenses more quickly. Methicillin
arrived in 1960 and methicillin resistance in 1962; levofloxacin in 1996 and the first resistant cases the same year; linezolid in 2000 and
resistance to it in 2001; daptomycin in 2003 and the first signs of resistance in 2004. With antibiotics losing usefulness so
quicklyand thus not making back the estimated $1 billion per drug it costs to create themthe
pharmaceutical industry lost enthusiasm for making more. In 2004, there were only five new antibiotics
in development, compared to more than 500 chronic-disease drugs for which resistance is not an issueand which, unlike antibiotics,
are taken for years, not days. Since then, resistant bugs have grown more numerous and by sharing DNA with each other, have become even
tougher to treat with the few drugs that remain. In 2009, and again this year, researchers in Europe and the United States
sounded the alarm over an ominous form of resistance known as CRE, for which only one antibiotic still
works. Health authorities have struggled to convince the public that this is a crisis. In September, Dr. Thomas Frieden, the director of the
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, issued a blunt warning: If were not careful, we will soon be in a post-
antibiotic era. For some patients and some microbes, we are already there. The chief medical officer of the United Kingdom, Dame Sally
Davieswho calls antibiotic resistance as serious a threat as terrorismrecently published a book in which she imagines what might come
next. She sketches a world where infection is so dangerous that anyone with even minor symptoms
would be locked in confinement until they recover or die. It is a dark vision, meant to disturb. But it may actually
underplay what the loss of antibiotics would mean.
Ocean is the most promising frontier for sources of new drugs
National Research Council 9 The National Academics Advisors to the Nation on Science,
Engineering, and Medicine, 2009, http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-
assets/osb/miscellaneous/Oceans-Human-Health.pdf) jml
In 1945, a young organic chemist named Werner Berg- mann set out to explore the waters off the coast
of southern Florida. Among the marine organisms he scooped from the sand that day was a Caribbean
sponge that would later be called Cryptotethya crypta . Back in his lab, Bergmann extracted a novel

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compound from this sponge that aroused his curiosity. The chemical Bergmann identied in this sponge,
spongothymidine, eventually led to the development of a whole class of drugs that treat cancer and viral
diseases and are still in use today. For example, Zid- ovudine (AZT) ghts the AIDS virus, HIV, and
cytosine arabinoside (Ara-C) is used in the treatment of leuke- mias and lymphomas. Acyclovir speeds
the healing of eczema and some herpes viruses. These are just a few examples of how the study of
marine organisms con- tributes to the health of thousands of men, women, and children around the
world. New antibiotics, in addition to new drugs for ghting cancer, inammatory diseases, and
neurodegenerative diseases (which often cannot be treated successfully today), are greatly needed.
With drug resistance nibbling away at the once-full toolbox of antibiotics, the limited effectiveness of
currently available drugs has dire consequences for public health. Compounds with medical potential
have been found in several species of marine sponges, such as this bright orange sponge. (Image from
Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution, Fort Pierce, Florida) _ OCEAN SCIENCE SERIES exploring the
promises of ocean science OCEANS AND HUMAN HEALTH 3 Historically, many medicines have come
from nature mostly from land-based natural organisms. Because scientists have nearly exhausted the
supply of terrestrial plants, animals, and microorganisms that have interesting medical properties, new
sources of drugs are needed. Occupying more than 70 percent of the Earths surface, the ocean is a
virtually unexplored treasure chest of new and unidentied speciesone of the last frontiers for
sources of new natural products. These natural products are of special interest because of the dazzling
diversity and uniqueness of the creatures that make the sea their home. One reason marine organisms
are so interesting to scientists is because in adapting to the various ocean environments, they have
evolved fascinating repertoires of unique chemicals to help them survive. For example, anchored to the
seaoor, a sponge that protects itself from an animal trying to take over its space by killing the invader
has been compared with the human immune system trying to kill foreign cancer cells. That same
sponge, bathed in seawater containing millions of bacteria, viruses, and fungi, some of which could be
pathogens, has developed antibiotics to keep those pathogens under control. Those same antibiotics
could be used to treat infections in humans. Sponges, in fact, are among the most prolic sources of
diverse chemical compounds. An estimated 30 percent of all potential marine-derived medications
currently in the pipelineand about 75 percent of recently patented marine-derived anticancer
compoundscome from marine sponges. Marine-based microorganisms are another particularly rich
source of new medicines. More than 1_0 drugs available today derive from land-based microbes. Scien-
tists see marine-based microbes as the most promising source of novel medicines from the sea. In all,
more than _ 0,000 biochemical compounds have been isolated from sea creatures since the 1980s.
Because drug discovery in the marine frontier is a relatively young eld, only a few marine-derived drugs
are in use today. Many others are in the pipeline. One example is Prialt, a drug developed from the
venom of a sh-killing cone snail. The cone snails produce neurotoxins to paralyze and kill prey; those
neurotoxins are being developed as neuromuscular blocks for individuals with chronic pain, stroke, or
epilepsy. Other marine- derived drugs are being tested against herpes, asthma, and breast cancer. The
National Research Council report Marine Biotechnology that the exploration of unique habitats, such as
deep-sea environments, and the isolation and culture of marine microorganisms offer two
underexplored opportunities for discovery of novel chemicals with therapeutic potential. The
successes to date, which are based upon a very limited investigation of both deep-sea organisms and
marine microorganisms, suggest a high potential for continued discovery of new drugs.


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Resistance to antibiotics is growing and generics fail a new model for antibiotic
development is key to incentivize the pharmaceutical industry.
Mitya Underwood July 31, 2014 ,A bug in the system: the growing problem with antibiotics, Mitya
Underwood is a senior features writer for The National. http://www.thenational.ae/arts-lifestyle/well-
being/a-bug-in-the-system-the-growing-problem-with-antibiotics#full#ixzz39TcZMpDy)
When Alexander Fleming was awarded the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 1945 for his discovery of the first antibiotic, penicillin, he issued one note of warning. The time may come when penicillin can be bought by anyone in the shops, he said in his Nobel Lecture. Then there is the danger
that the ignorant man may easily underdose himself and by exposing his microbes to non-lethal quantities of the drug make them resistant. To drive his point home, he went on to tell a fictional story of Mr and Mrs X. Mr X has a sore throat. He buys some penicillin and gives himself
[some], not enough to kill the streptococci but enough to educate them to resist penicillin. Mrs X then contracts the sore throat and also takes penicillin, he continued, but the penicillin is no longer effective against the bacteria and Mrs X dies. Who is primarily responsible for Mrs Xs
death? Fleming said. Why, Mr X, whose negligent use of penicillin changed the nature of the microbe. Moral: If you use penicillin, use enough. Almost 70 years later and Flemings concerns about the ignorant man have proved valid. Improper use of
antibiotics has caused a serious threat to global health, according to the World Health Organisation
(WHO), and the world is getting very close to a time where common illnesses and minor injuries will
once again kill. The solution, it would seem, is simple; create new antibiotics that would be effective against the mutant
bacteria that have become resistant to existing medicines, and at the same time limit improper
consumption to prevent further resistance. But the golden age of antibiotic development is now a distant memory. Fromthe 1930s to the 1970s there was a steady stream of newly designed antibiotics comi ng
onto the market. Most importantly, they included certain types that were effective against bacteria that had already become resistant to earlier varieties. But in the past 30 years, the pipeline for new
antibiotics has been drying up and no major new types have been developed. On top of that, resistance
to medicines that are used to treat HIV, influenza, malaria, tuberculosis, pneumonia and others has been
growing. After the discovery of penicillin, there was big funding and investment towards developing antibiotics, and it just kept goi ng, says Hosam Zowawi, a clinical microbiologist based at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia. Antibiotics were getting
synthesised, developed and released to the market. Alongside that growth, pharmaceutical companies realised that bacteria are really smart and thought the more we develop antibiotics, the more they become resistant. And thats why they decided to pull out fromthis research and
development, because they didnt think it was commercially feasible. A large report released earlier this year by the WHO detailed just how big a
problem antimicrobial resistance has become. It said very high rates of resistance had been observed in bacteria that cause common health-care-associated and community-acquired infections, such as
urinary tract infections and pneumonia, all across the world. When Antimicrobial Resistance: Global Report on Surveillance 2014 was released in April, the WHO assistant director general Dr Keiji
Fukuda said a post-antibiotic era was no longer an apocalyptic fantasy but a real possibility for this
century.The report identified seven species of bacteria that cause common infections but have acquired very high levels of resistance. It included Escherichia coli, which causes urinary tract and bloodstream infections; Klebsiella pneumoniae, also responsible for urinary
tract and bloodstreaminfections, and also wound infections and pneumonia; Staphylococcus aureus, the resistant form of which is known as MRSA; Streptococcus pneumoniae, which causes meningitis, bronchitis, skin infections and contagious ear infections; nontyphoidal Salmonella,
causing food-borne diarrhoea and bloodstream infections; Shigella species, causing diarrhoea and dysentery; and Neisseria gonorrhoeae, causing gonorrhoea. Zowawi points out that a third of women will suffer from a urinary tract infection previously easy to treat with antibiotics at
some point in their lives so the consequences of not being able to treat themcould be catastrophic. If these and other bacteria continue to acquire resistance, it could wipe out the achievements of modern medicine, the WHO said. Ten to 20 per cent of wound bacteria are resistant to
the last line of antibiotics, Zowawi says. We still have 80 per cent that are sensitive. But by continuing to misuse them, we will keep increasing that percentage of resistant bacteria and reduce the numbers of the sensitive sort until we get a level where 100 per cent of bacteria are
resistant. As well as stimulating the antibiotic pipeline, experts say it is imperative for governments and
countries to take a stronger stance on the misuse of antibiotics.In the Middle East, for example, it is not uncommon for people to buy antibiotic medicines over the counter
without a prescription, in spite of legislation making it illegal. In a recent survey of pharmacies in Abu Dhabi, all of them admitted to selling antibiotics over the counter. The risk from this illegal practice is two-pronged. First, the customer might not even need antibiotics to begin with.
Secondly, there is a high risk that self-diagnosis and self-prescribing leads to someone misusing the antibiotics by either taking them inappropriately, such as at the wrong times of day, or by not finishing the course. Misuses provide a great
opportunity for bacteria to acquire resistance. Consequently, it is imperative that we reduce as far as possible inappropriate use of antibiotics, and stopping over-the-counter sales would certainly contribute
to that aim, says Dr Alex ONeill, a lecturer at the School of Molecular and Cellular Biology at the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom. There are numerous things that clinicians take into account when making decisions about administering antibiotics to patients. For example, is it a
bacterial infection? And if so, will it clear up on its own or is antibiotic treatment warranted? What type of bacteria are responsible and which antibiotics are such bacteria sensitive to? Which antibiotics are appropriate for treatment given the site of infection in the body? Given the
number of considerations involved, none of which an individual standing in line at a pharmacy is able to make an informed decision on, the likelihood that an antibiotic bought over the counter will be used appropriately is, in my view, slight. The problem of misuse is by no means limited
to the Middle East. A 2009 study from the United States revealed equally worrying results. Almost half of those surveyed who had used an antibiotic within the last year admitted missing a dose (44 per cent) and the same number believed antibiotics could treat viruses. (They are, in fact,
completely ineffective against viruses.) There is also the issue of substandard drugs. Some sources say antibiotics are one of the most counterfeited products in developing countries and the WHO says most drug quality assurance systems are weak, therefore exposing patients to
suboptimal levels of microbials and creating the conditions for resistance to form. Antibiotics in agriculture is another factor that has contributed to the growing numbers of superbugs. They are used in animal husbandry not only to treat active infections but also as a preventive measure
and as growth promoters. Since antibiotic use drives the development of antibiotic resistance, and many of the antibiotic cl asses used in livestock are the same as those used in human medicine, the extensive use of antibiotics in livestock for non--therapeutic purposes acts to more
rapidly render antibiotics ineffective for medical purposes, ONeill says. This phenomenon has been recognised since the 1960s, but we have only in recent years seen a growing will to properly regulate antibiotic use in livestock. Earlier this month, the British prime minister David
Cameron warned of the global threat of antibiotic resistance and called for global action. He commissioned a review, led by the former Goldman Sachs economist JimONeill, to look at the economic issues surrounding antimicrobial resistance. According to Camerons office, the full
scale of the economic burden of drug-resistant infections and the cost of failure to take concerted action to address it is not yet fully understood. The review will look at ways to stimulate investment in new antimicrobials and how international cooperation could be improved. On
announcing the committee, Cameron said that if the world failed to act it would be looking at an almost unthinkabl e scenario where antibiotics no longer work and we are cast back into the dark ages of medicine. The review will be hosted and funded by The Wellcome Trust, an
independent charity focusing on human and animal health, and the results are expected to be rel eased in 2016. Producing new antibiotics is no longer an option, experts insist
it is an absolute necessity. Figures compiled in 2009 by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the European Medicines Agency revealed a rather grimpicture. A survey of antibiotic development in small and large
pharmaceutical companies found that of 167 antibiotic agents under development, just 27 were assessed as having either a new target or a new mechanism of action, thus potentially offering a benefit over existing antibiotics. Of these 27, just 15 could be systemically administered (as
opposed to topical medicines that are applied locally), meaning they are delivered to the circulatory system and the whole body is affected. Of these 15, only a third of the agents had progressed to clinical trials at the time when the survey was carried out. Zowawi, who specialises in
antimicrobial resistance and novel diagnostic tools, says that while the pharmaceutical companies have indeed failed to invest in antibiotic development, the blame must be shared. We should blame ourselves as scientists and experts in this area because we havent been communicating
well to the general public about this issue. If we had done this earlier we might have avoided this, he says. Now this issue is huge. This is absolutely threatening mankind
from now. Antimicrobial resistance is not a new subject and the dangers of improper use of antibiotics
were identified long ago. There have been scores of research papers released in the past 30 years warning of an impending threat. A 1979 article in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases examined the emergence of antibiotic resistance in
hospitals from1935 to 1975 and said: The dominant factor in the emergence and spread of antibiotic-resistant bacterial pathogens, whether in hospital wards or in the community, is clearly the intensive use of the antibiotic agents to which resistance emerges then spreads. So even
while the threat was known, it seems little progress was made in terms of developing new antibiotics. The expense of doing this may go some way to explaining why. Recent estimates put the cost of producing a new antibiotic at between US$800 million and US$1.7 billion (Dh2.938-
6.244bn), and suggest it would take more than a decade of work. The concern that pharmaceutical companies do not consider it a worthwhile investment seems feasible given how little has been produced in recent decades. Pharmaceutical companies are for-profit businesses and
therefore focus their efforts on the most lucrative products. The global pharmaceutical market is worth an estimated US$300bn a year, according to the WHO, and is likely to reach US$400bn within a couple of years. The 10 largest drug companies, which control more than a third of the
whole market, have profit margins of around 30 per cent. Somewhat tellingly, the WHO reports, pharmaceutical companies spend a third of their sales revenue on marketing their products twice as much as they spend researching and developing new medicines. Antibiotics are routinely
identified in research papers as being poorly performing drugs when it comes to pharmaceutical companies balance sheets. One reason for this is they are only prescribed for short periods of time, maybe a couple of days to a few weeks at most. A 2013 paper in Globalization and Health
on the economics of antibiotics calls the current situation in new antibiotic development an impending global crisis. As a class of drugs it says, antibiotics have several unique
properties which make them less profitable and therefore less attractive to corporate investment. For starters, by
their nature, antibacterial drugs should indeed be prescribed for as short a time as possible to limit the chances of improper and over use. Drugs that are prescribed in much larger quantities and for longer times such as those used to treat chronic diseases such as diabetes or
cardiovascular disease are obviously more profitable in the long run. Even the WHO admits that the profit imperative ensures that the drugs chosen for

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development are those most likely to provide a high return on the companys investment. There are also the costs associated with
putting a drug through clinical trials. Antibiotics specifically require different trials for each new indicati on in varying organ systems, making them more costly to test than other sorts of medicines, according to David Brogan and Eli as Mossialos in The Incentives for New Antibiotics: the
Options Market for Antibiotics (OMA) Model, an article in Globalization and Health. Without some sort of intervention, the development of new antibiotics may come too late. A critical market demand large enough
to spur development may not exist until a crisis has emerged, the report says. ONeill tells The National that the past couple of years
have brought some signs of improvement but they have yet to translate into tangible benefits in terms
of patient treatment. One of the most serious problems, he says, is simply that it is incredibly difficult to
identify potential antibiotic compounds with the right properties to develop as drugs. They must be highly toxic to bacteria but non-toxic
to the human body and not exhibit the potential to become rapidly compromised by the development of antibiotic resistance. O Neill refers to a 2013 Clinical Microbiology Reviews report by MJ Pucci and K Bush, which said that a surprising number of new agents were currently in the
corporate pipeline, particularly in phase 3 of clinical development where their effectiveness is assessed. But these compounds still have some way to go before they could reach the clinic, some may of course not make it, and meanwhile the resistance crisis builds, he says. So
while these signs of improvement are most welcome, they have yet to translate into tangible benefits in
terms of patient treatment. Chantal Morel, a research officer and economist at the London School of Economics (LSE) in the UK, suggests that changing the way pharmaceutical companies are rewarded for their products might help
stimulate growth in the necessary areas. If we are seeking a longer-term solution to this problem we should ensure that we remove the incentive for high unit sales, she tells The National. We need to effectively decouple sales fromthe reward that companies receive for developing a
new antibiotic. [We] need a business model to drive antibiotic development. Pharmaceutical companies use a net present value (NPV) calculation to identify which therapeutic
areas are worth investing in. It includes projected costs and returns. For antibiotics, due to the time and cost of research and development and the quantity issues, they do not produce a favourable NPV figure. Patrick Vallance, the president of research and development at
Glaxo-SmithKline, told the BBC recently that his firmhad spent around US$1bn in the last decade on antibiotic research and development. I am not going to stand here and say we have a great pipeline coming through which is going to solve this problem because we havent, and nobody
has, and there needs to be more effort here, he said. He also acknowledged a disparity in the way society viewed antibiotics for which people are prepared to pay very little and cancer drugs, for example, which are very expensive, despite the former having equally big effects.
There is also the problem of generic medicines, which sell at much lower prices because the generic
manufacturers have not had to invest in the initial research, development and clinical trials. This means
pharmaceutical companies have difficulty competing against generic manufacturers, according to a 2010
WHO report co-authored by Morel. We need arrangements that better spread risk between the public
sector entities and industry, she says. *We+ need some push funding to steer research in the desired
direction as well as some strong pull incentives to encourage full product development. Companies have been investing where they
know they will make much more money for example, cancer, cardiovascular [disease] etc even when they develop drugs that offer only minor therapeutic gains compared to the life-saving nature of antibiotics. Morel has researched and written extensively on why pharmaceutical
companies and governments have not invested more in creating new antibiotics, despite the obvious and pressing need. Supposedly the pipeline is in slightly better shape than it was a few years ago, she says. However, t hat said, I think that this estimate of 27 new antibiotic agents
was in fact an overestimate. In 2010, Morel co-authored a paper with Elias Mossialos, a professor of health policy at the LSE, on the subject of stoking the antibiotic pipeline with financial incentives. The report cited 2004 figures that revealed that only 1.6 per cent of the drugs in
development by the worlds 15 largest pharmaceutical companies were antibiotics. Despite the low figures, some organisations are determined to get things moving. The Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA), representing doctors, scientists and other medical professionals
specialising in infectious diseases, is running the 10 x 20 campaign to push for a commitment frompharmaceutical companies, governments and other stakeholders to create 10 new antibiotics by 2020. Launched in 2010 and now with just six years remaining, it is unlikely to succeed.
As a global society, we have a moral obligation to ensure, in perpetuity, that the treasure of antibiotics
is never lost and that no infant, child, or adult dies unnecessarily of a bacterial infection caused by the
lack of effective and safe antibiotic therapies, the IDSA says. The British government is also pushing for more to be done. This year sees the return of the Longitude Prize, which was first offered 300 years
ago to encourage the discovery of a reliable way to measure longitude at sea; this years challenge is to create a cheap, accurate, rapid and easy-to-use point-of-care test kit for bacterial infections. The subject matter was chosen from a list of six which included finding a way to fly
without damaging the environment, and restoring movement to those with paralysis via a three-day public vote. Entrants have up to five years to solve the challenge and could win 10m (Dh63m) if they succeed. Point-of-care test kits will allow more targeted use of antibiotics, and an
overall reduction in misdiagnosis and prescription, the Longitude website says. Zowawi, of the University of Queensland, says initiatives like this, that spark interest and debate in the
field, could be the solution to the problem of antibiotic resistance. It cant be done alone, he says. This is an issue not just
for scientists or physicians or nurses or the general public. This is an issue for the globe.

2017 pandemic sets a literal deadline-- multitude of warrants destroy burnout theory--
making new medicines is key
JOHN NAISH 8/14/12(Reporter for Daily Mail, The Armageddon virus: Why experts fear a disease
that leaps from animals to humans could devastate mankind in the next five years Warning comes after
man died from a Sars-like virus that had previously only been seen in bats Earlier this month a man from
Glasgow died from a tick-borne disease that is widespread in domestic and wild animals in Africa and
Asia http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217774/The-Armageddon-virus-Why-experts-
fear-disease-leaps-animals-humans-devastate-mankind-years.html#ixzz3E5kqxjQI //AKP)

The symptoms appear suddenly with a headache, high fever, joint pain, stomach pain and vomiting. As the illness progresses, patients can develop large areas of bruising and uncontrolled
bleeding. In at least 30per cent of cases, Crimean-Congo Viral Hemorrhagic Fever is fatal. And so it proved this month when a 38-year-old garage owner from Glasgow, who had been to his
brothers wedding in Afghanistan, became the UKs first confirmed victim of the tick-borne viral illness when he died at the high-security infectious disease unit at Londons Royal Free Hospital.
It is a disease widespread in domestic and wild animals in Africa and Asia and one that has jumped the species barrier to infect humans with deadly effect. But the unnamed mans death
was not the only time recently a foreign virus had struck in this country for the first time. Last month, a 49-year-old man entered Londons St Thomas hospital with a raging fever, severe cough
and desperate difficulty in breathing. He bore all the hallmarks of the deadly Sars virus that killed nearly 1,000 people in 2003 but blood tests quickly showed that this terrifyingly virulent
infection was not Sars . Nor was it any other virus yet known to medical science. Worse still, the gasping, sweating
patient was rapidly succumbing to kidney failure, a potentially lethal complication that had never before

Page | 9
been seen in such a case. As medical staff quarantined their critically-ill patient, fearful questions began to mount. The stricken man had recently come from Qatar in the
Middle East. What on earth had he picked up there? Had he already infected others with it? Using the latest high-tech gene-scanning technique, scientists at the Health Protection Agency
started to piece together clues from tissue samples taken from the Qatari patient, who was now hooked up to a life-support machine. The results were
extraordinary. Yes, the virus is from the same family as Sars. But its make-up is completely new. It has
come not from humans, but from animals. Its closest known relatives have been found in Asiatic bats.
The investigators also discovered that the virus has already killed someone. Searches of global medical
databases revealed the same mysterious virus lurking in samples taken from a 60-year-old man who had
died in Saudi Arabia in July. Scroll down for video Potentially deadly: The man suffered from CCHF, a disease transmitted by ticks (pictured) which is
especially common in East and West Africa Potentially deadly: The man suffered from CCHF, a disease transmitted by ticks (pictured) which is especially common in
East and West Africa When the Health Protection Agency warned the world of this newly- emerging virus last month, it ignited a stark fear among medical experts.
Could this be the next bird flu, or even the next Spanish flu the worlds biggest pandemic, which claimed between 50million and 100million lives across the
globe from 1918 to 1919? In all these outbreaks, the virus responsible came from an animal . Analysts now
believe that the Spanish flu pandemic originated from a wild aquatic bird. The terrifying fact is that
viruses that manage to jump to us from animals called zoonoses can wreak havoc because of their
astonishing ability to catch us on the hop and spread rapidly through the population when we least
expect it. The virus's power and fatality rates are terrifying One leading British virologist, Professor John
Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital, University of London, and a world authority on epidemics, warns that
we must expect an animal-originated pandemic to hit the world within the next five years, with
potentially cataclysmic effects on the human race. Such a contagion, he believes, will be a new strain of
super-flu, a highly infectious virus that may originate in some far-flung backwater of Asia or Africa, and
be contracted by one person from a wild animal or domestic beast, such as a chicken or pig. By the time
the first victim has succumbed to this unknown, unsuspected new illness, they will have spread it by
coughs and sneezes to family, friends, and all those gathered anxiously around them. Thanks to our
crowded, hyper-connected world, this doomsday virus will already have begun crossing the globe by air,
rail, road and sea before even the best brains in medicine have begun to chisel at its genetic secrets.
Before it even has a name, it will have started to cut its lethal swathe through the worlds population.
The high security unit High security: The high security unit where the man was treated for the
potentially fatal disease but later died If this new virus follows the pattern of the pandemic of 1918-
1919, it will cruelly reap mass harvests of young and fit people. They die because of something called a
cytokine storm a vast overreaction of their strong and efficient immune systems that is prompted
by the virus. This uncontrolled response burns them with a fever and wracks their bodies with nausea
and massive fatigue. The hyper-activated immune system actually kills the person, rather than killing
the super-virus. Professor Oxford bases his prediction on historical patterns. The past century has
certainly provided us with many disturbing precedents. For example, the 2003 global outbreak of Sars,
the severe acute respiratory syndrome that killed nearly 1,000 people, was transmitted to humans from
Asian civet cats in China. More... Man, 38, dies from deadly tropical disease after returning to the UK
from Afghanistan Nine-year-old who turns YELLOW with anger: Brianna must spend 12 hours a day
under UV lights because of rare condition In November 2002, it first spread among people working at a
live animal market in the southern Guangdong province, where civets were being sold. Nowadays, the
threat from such zoonoses is far greater than ever, thanks to modern technology and human population
growth. Mass transport such as airliners can quickly fan outbreaks of newly- emerging zoonoses into deadly global wildfires. The Sars virus was spread when a Chinese professor of respiratory medicine treating people
with the syndrome fell ill when he travelled to Hong Kong, carrying the virus with him. By February 2003, it had covered the world by hitching easy lifts with airline passengers. Between March and July 2003, some 8,400 probable
cases of Sars had been reported in 32 countries. It is a similar story with H1N1 swine flu, the 2009 influenza pandemic that infected hundreds of millions throughout the world. It is now believed to have originated in herds of pigs in
Mexico before infecting humans who boarded flights to myriad destinations. Once these stowaway viruses get off the plane, they dont have to
learn a new language or new local customs. Genetically, we humans are not very diverse; an epidemic

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that can kill people in one part of the world can kill them in any other just as easily. On top of this, our
risk of catching such deadly contagions from wild animals is growing massively, thanks to humankinds
relentless encroachment into the worlds jungles and rainforests, where we increasingly come into
contact for the first time with unknown viral killers that have been evolving and incubating in wild
creatures for millennia. This month, an international research team announced it had identified an entirely new African virus that killed two teenagers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2009.
The virus induced acute hemorrhagic fever, which causes catastrophic widespread bleeding from the eyes, ears, nose and mouth, and can kill in days. A 15-year-old boy and a 13-year-old girl who attended the same school both fell
ill suddenly and succumbed rapidly. A week after the girls death, a nurse who cared for her developed similar symptoms. He only narrowly survived. The new microbe is named Bas-Congo virus (BASV), after the province where its
three victims lived. It belongs to a family of viruses known as rhabdoviruses, which includes rabies. A report in the journal PLoS Pathogens says the virus
probably originated in local wildlife and was passed to humans through insect bites or some other as-yet
unidentified means. There are plenty of other new viral candidates waiting in the wings, guts, breath
and blood of animals around us. You can, for example, catch leprosy from armadillos, which carry the
virus in their shells and are responsible for a third of leprosy cases in the U.S. Horses can transmit the
Hendra virus, which can cause lethal respiratory and neurological disease in people. In a new book that
should give us all pause for thought, award-winning U.S. natural history writer David Quammen points
to a host of animal-derived infections that now claim lives with unprecedented regularity. The trend can
only get worse, he warns. Quammen highlights the Ebola fever virus, which first struck in Zaire in 1976. The viruss power is terrifying, with fatality rates as high as 90 per
cent. The latest mass outbreak of the virus, in the Congo last month, is reported to have killed 36 people out of 81 suspected cases. According to Quammen, Ebola probably originated in bats.
The bats then infected African apes, quite probably through the apes coming into contact with bat droppings. The virus then infected local hunters who had eaten the apes as bushmeat.
Quammen believes a similar pattern occurred with the HIV virus, which probably originated in a single chimpanzee in Cameroon. 'It is inevitable we will have a
global outbreak' Studies of the viruss genes suggest it may have first evolved as early as 1908. It was not until the Sixties that it appeared in humans, in big African cities. By the Eighties, it was spreading by
airlines to America. Since then, Aids has killed around 30million people and infected another 33 million. There is one mercy with Ebola and HIV. They cannot be transmitted by coughs and sneezes. Ebola is transmissible from
human to human through direct contact with bodily fluids. It can be stopped by preventing such contact, Quammen explains. If HIV could be transmitted by air, you and I
might already be dead. If the rabies virus another zoonosis could be transmitted by air, it would be
the most horrific pathogen on the planet. Viruses such as Ebola have another limitation, on top of their method of transmission. They kill and
incapacitate people too quickly. In order to spread into pandemics, zoonoses need their human hosts to be both infectious and alive for as long as possible, so that
the virus can keep casting its deadly tentacles across the worlds population. But there is one zoonosis that can do all the right (or
wrong) things. It is our old adversary, flu. It is easily transmitted through the air, via sneezes and coughs. Sars can do this, too.
But flu has a further advantage. As Quammen points out: With Sars, symptoms tend to appear in a person before, rather than after, that
person becomes highly infectious. Isolation: Unlike Sars the symptoms of this new disease may not be apparent
before the spread of infection Isolation: Unlike Sars the symptoms of this new disease may not be apparent before the spread of infection
That allowed many Sars cases to be recognised, hospitalised and placed in isolation before they hit their peak of infectivity. But with influenza and
many other diseases, the order is reversed. Someone who has an infectious case of a new and
potentially lethal strain of flu can be walking about innocently spluttering it over everyone around them
for days before they become incapacitated. Such reasons lead Professor Oxford, a world authority on
epidemics, to warn that a new global pandemic of animal-derived flu is inevitable. And, he says, the
clock is ticking fast. Professor Oxfords warning is as stark as it is certain: I think it is inevitable that we
will have another big global outbreak of flu, he says. We should plan for one emerging in 2017-2018.
But are we adequately prepared to cope? Professor Oxford warns that vigilant surveillance is the only real answer that we have. New flu
strains are a day-to-day problem and we have to be very careful to keep on top of them, he says. We now have
scientific processes enabling us to quickly identify the genome of the virus behind a new illness, so that we know what we are dealing with. The best we
can do after that is to develop and stockpile vaccines and antiviral drugs that can fight new strains that
we see emerging. But the Professor is worried our politicians are not taking this certainty of mass death seriously enough. Such laxity could come at a
human cost so unprecedentedly high that it would amount to criminal negligence. The race against newly-emerging animal-derived diseases is one that we have to
win every time. A pandemic virus needs to win only once and it could be the end of humankind.

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AUVs solve microbial sampling and environmental monitoringcritical internal link to
solvency and new sampling methods overcome barriers.
Mak A. Saito et al, Vladimir V Bulygin, Dawn M. Moran, Craig Taylor, Chris Scholin 11/7/11, (Marine
Chemistry and Geochemistry Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA,
USA 2Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA 3Monterey
Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, CA, USA, Examination of Microbial Proteome
Preservation Techniques Applicable to Autonomous Environmental Sample Collection,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3209654///AKP)
Improvements in temporal and spatial sampling frequency have the potential to open new windows into
the understanding of marine microbial dynamics. In recent years, efforts have been made to allow
automated samplers to collect microbial biomass for DNA/RNA analyses from moored observatories and
autonomous underwater vehicles. Measurements of microbial proteins are also of significant interest
given their biogeochemical importance as enzymes that catalyze reactions and transporters that
interface with the environment. We examined the influence of five preservatives solutions (SDS-extraction buffer, ethanol, trichloroacetic acid, B-PER, and RNAlater)
on the proteome integrity of the marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus WH8102 after 4 weeks of storage at room temperature. Four approaches were used to assess degradation: total
protein recovery, band integrity on an SDS detergent polyacrylamide electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) gel, and number of protein identifications and relative abundances by 1-dimensional LC
MS/MS proteomic analyses. Total protein recoveries from the preserved samples were lower than the frozen control due to processing losses, which could be corrected for with internal
standardization. The trichloroacetic acid preserved sample showed significant loss of protein band integrity on the SDS-PAGE gel. The RNAlater preserved sample showed the highest number
of protein identifications (103% relative to the control; 520 31 identifications in RNAlater versus 504 4 in the control), equivalent to the frozen control. Relative abundances of individual
proteins in the RNAlater treatment were quite similar to that of the frozen control (average ratio of 1.01 0.27 for the 50 most abundant proteins), while the SDS-extraction buffer, ethanol,
and B-PER all showed significant decreases in both number of identifications and relative abundances of individual proteins. Based on these findings, RNAlater was an
effective proteome preservative, although further study is warranted on additional marine microbes.
Introduction It is anticipated that higher spatial and temporal sampling of the oceans provided by
deployment of a combination of in situ sensors and autonomous sample collectors will greatly improve
our understanding of marine processes. This is likely to be particularly true for coupled microbiological
and chemical processes that scale from genomic potential to global biogeochemical impacts on virtually
all biologically utilized elements (Morel and Price, 2003; Falkowski et al., 2008; Saito et al., 2008).
Multiple large scale programs are underway that aim to incorporate microbiological and/or
biogeochemical observations in high temporal or spatial resolution, including the Ocean Observatories
Initiative (OOI1) and the GEOTRACES trace element and isotope global survey section program2. The
development of autonomous samplers and their deployment on moorings and underwater vehicles
offers these increases in sampling resolution over the duration of deployment (Bell et al., 2002;
Greenfield et al., 2006; Paul et al., 2007; Breier et al., 2009; Scholin et al., 2009). In addition,
autonomous sample collection may be valuable during ocean section survey cruises, where the ships
wire-time for sampling equipment is the limiting operational resource, and introduction of autonomous
sampling systems could greatly increase biological and biochemical sample collection capabilities. Yet a major
concern with automated sample collection is the potential for sample degradation during storage until instrument recovery and analysis. Standard laboratory and field sampling approaches for DNA, RNA, and protein storage
involve filtration to concentrate biomass and immediate freezing in liquid nitrogen. While use of preservatives can be incorporated into current sampling platforms being developed, freezing in situ is likely beyond the power, space,
and design criteria that are desirable for environmental microbial samplers. The ability of preservatives that maintain sample integrity without freezing over both the long durations associated with mooring or vehicle deployments,
or the short-term station-time during survey cruises is an important design criterion. While preservation of RNA molecules has recently been successfully demonstrated on the Environmental Sample Processor (an autonomous
sampler and analyzer) deployed in a coastal environment for laboratory-based metatranscriptomic analysis (Ottesen et al., 2011), marine protein preservation has been much less studied in this context. Marine proteomics is a
relatively new technique that has significant potential to contribute to the understanding of microbial biogeochemistry. Four potential applications include: (1) the direct quantitative measurement of enzymes responsible for the
catalysis of biogeochemical reactions and their incorporation of this data within global ecosystemcirculation models (Saito et al., 2011), (2) the measurement of transporters and biomarkers for assessment of nutrient limitation
status of key phytoplankton and bacterial communities, (3) the characterization of the community diversity and functional gene expression, and (4) the use of proteomic mass spectral data to assist in genome annotation, an
application known as proteogenomics (Ansong et al., 2008). Mass spectrometry-based proteomics methods have recently been applied to important marine microbes such as the cyanobacteria Crocosphaera watsonii and
Synechococcus, and the heterotrophic bacterium Pelagibacter ubique (Gonzales et al., 2005; Barrios-Llerena et al., 2006; Sowell et al., 2008a; Saito et al., 2011). In addition, community proteome analyses have begun to be applied
to the natural environments such as acid-mine drainage microbial communities, and open-ocean, and coastal marine water columns environments (Ram et al., 2005; Sowell et al., 2008b; VerBerkmoes et al., 2009; Morris et al.,
2010). One important emerging capability of proteomics is the ability for absolute quantification of target proteins (Wolf-Yadlin et al., 2007; Lange et al., 2008). Using isotopically labeled peptide standards, it is now possible to
measure very low quantities of proteins on an absolute scale. This has significant potential for application to oceanographic biogeochemical studies where concentrations of key biogeochemical enzymes can be quantified and using
their measured ranges of activities from laboratory studies, estimates of potential in situ biogeochemical reaction rates could then be calculated for environmental samples (Bertrand et al., 2011; Saito et al., 2011). Critical to the
development of this capability is confidence in protein sample collection and preservation.

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Advantage 2: Rare Earth Metals
China increasing its chokehold on REM Exports despite WTO rulingscutoffs are
inevitable
Shimbun 8-24-14.The Yomiuri Shimbun is a Japanese newspaper published in Tokyo, Osaka, Fukuoka,
and other major Japanese cities. China's unfair rare-earth export restrictions must be rectified
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Chinas-unfair-rare-earth-export-restrictions-must--
30241616.html
The World Trade Organisation's latest ruling on China's strict limits on rare-earth exports confirms its
principle that restrictions imposed by one country exclusively seeking to protect its own interests violate
global trade rules. The world trade body recently arrived at its final conclusion that China's rare-earth export restrictions and related
actions are a violation of WTO agreements. This finalised Beijing's loss of the case. China should accept the WTO's decision and immediately
rectify its unfair export restrictions. Rare earths are used in such high-tech products as high-performance motors for hybrid automobiles and
smartphones. China is the world's largest producer of such valuable raw material, accounting for more than
90 per cent of global production. China greatly lowered its rare earths export ceiling in 2010. Beijing has also
introduced export duties on rare earths and some rare metals. In 2012, Japan, the United States and the European Union joined hands in
bringing a case before the WTO, insisting these Chinese actions were violating WTO agreements. China defended its rare earths
export restrictions, arguing they aimed to protect the environment and conserve natural resources.
Despite its export restrictions, however, China has continued to supply rare earths to its own domestic manufacturers. Beijing has clearly
been giving preferential treatment to domestic corporations in the supply of rare earths. Given the
circumstances, the WTO had every reason to fully accept the assertions put forward by Japan, the United States and the EU to the effect that
China's export restraints were a protectionist move. Taming the tiger In the past, China has continued to exploit its
natural resources as leverage to exert diplomatic pressure on other nations. In 2010, for instance,
Beijing temporarily suspended rare earths exports to Japan amid heightened tensions between the two
countries that arose after a Chinese fishing boat struck two Japan Coast Guard vessels in waters off the Senkaku
Islands in Okinawa Prefecture. Such conduct violates the WTO's fundamental rules, including a ban on the discriminatory treatment of a given
nation. China joined the WTO in 2001. Since then, the country has reaped the benefits of free trade to
achieve high economic growth. Beijing should take its obligations to heart as an economic power and adhere to global trade rules.
Japan cannot help but continue to rely on imports for rare earth and nearly all other scarce resource
supplies. It is important to ensure that export restrictions by other countries do not deal a serious blow
to our nation's economic activities. The Japanese government and business circles have taken steps to
secure their rights and interests tied to rare earth supplies, including an attempt to increase the number of nations that
can sell such raw material to Japanese manufacturers. Further action should be taken to achieve that goal. Recycling should also be promoted
to extract valuable materials from used electronic devices, as well as the development of substitutes for rare earths. We hope the government
and the private sector will join forces to create the necessary technologies, despite our disadvantage as a resource-poor nation. Japan's
handicap in this respect could be used as a springboard to step up efforts.

China control over REMs unsustainable and triggers their environment disads
Morrison and Tang 12 (Wanye and Rachel, April 30
th
, Chinas Rare Earth Industry and Export
Regime: Economic and Trade Implications for the United States,
http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc85418/m1/1/high_res_d/R42510_2012Apr30.
pdf
Overheated rare earth production in China during the 1990s and the early 2000s generated a fragmented
industry with thousands of mines, many engaging in reckless mining and illicit production. In order

Page | 13
to maximize profits, these small companies often ignored safety and environmental regulations and fiercely
competed with each other for export deals. In addition to environmental degradation in China, this overcrowded rare earth sector and
often intense competition sharply drove down rare earths prices and. therefore, further pressed producers to cut
corners in order to secure their already thinning profit margins. Local governments, which often had vested interests, often tolerated these practices.34 In
addition to illicit rare earth production, smuggling also became widespread, which exacerbated
resource depletion and kept prices low. According to China Business News, about 20.000 tons of rare earths
were smuggled from China in 2008. Which was estimated to have accounted for one- third of
the total volume of rare earths leaving China that year. This smuggling is often the main reason behind the discrepancies
between the official statistics and the actual data of rare earth production and exports in China. Chinese policymakers and industry
experts have voiced concerns over the perceived rapid depletion of their exhaustible rare earth
resources. They contend that the rare earth deposits in China account for less than half of total global reserves; however, the country
mines and provides over 95% of the global supply Rare earth production in China has far outpaced the sustainable level which
makes Chinese officials concerned that such a disproportionately high level of output could soon deplete their resources. The Chinese government
is also concerned that overproduction and illegal mining often came at the cost of
environmental degradation - safety or environmental protection is often ignored in pursuit of revenue potential.36 The Chinese media
have repeatedly exposed incidents of water system and farmland contamination in rare earth
mining areas, from Inner Mongolia to southern provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangxi.37 hi the southern provinces, rare earths can be found in high
concentration in clays and soil a few feet underground. As a result, the 1990s saw an explosion of the number of poorly
constructed and maintained local mines that were both polluting and wasteful, leaving behind
contaminated soil and water. In November of 2011, during a product quality inspection, China's General Administration of Quality Supervision
found that 19 of 85 tea products contained excessive levels of toxic rare earths, including a batch of Lipton tea produced and sold in China by Unilever. Unilever
later stated that the rare earth metals had come from the soil where the tea was grown and had nothing to do with its production process.38 China currently argues
that it is now moving to consolidate production and put supplies of a critical and exhaustible resource on a more sustainable footing. China maintains that rare earth
export prices have been too low to reflect its virtual monopoly position. Moreover, such dominance, in view of the Chinese industry experts and policymakers,
should assist China to move up the supply chain and engage in rare earth application and end products, not just being the world's supplier of raw materials.39 hi
recent years, China has put in place a series of industry and trade policies, aiming to capitalize on its dominance of rare earth supply
Scenario 1: Hegemony
China REM monopoly creates unlimited political leverage on all international issues--
destroys US hegemony and weapons-- mining now key to re-establish US dominance
in international forums
Al-Rodhan, 3/20/14-Nayef Al-Rodhan is a philosopher, neuroscientist and geostrategist. He is a Senior
Member of St Antony`s College, University of Oxford, and Senior Fellow and Director of the Centre for
the Geopolitics of Globalization and Transnational Security at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.
Author of The Politics of Emerging Strategic Technologies. Implications for Geopolitics, Human
Enhancement and Human Destiny (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011). "Rare-Earth Metals:
Anticipating the New Battle for Resources",
(http://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/20/03/2014/rare-earth-metals-anticipating-new-battle-
resources//AKP)
Natural resources are pivotal in international politics. They create patterns of cooperation,
dependencies and alter balances of power. The battle for resource is most commonly associated with
energy resources such as oil and gas, or base metals indispensible for industries: aluminium, copper,
lead, nickel and zinc. In recent years, China has gained the reputation of a resource-avid country,

Page | 14
pursuing deals for resource exploitation to its advantage. In numerous countries across Latin America,
Asia or Africa, China has already established long-term deals with governments to obtain access to vital
metals or resources. In light of such narratives and records, a lesser-known fact about the geopolitics of
resources has escaped public polemics. This refers to rare earth metals or rare-earth elements (REMs), a
set of 17 naturally occurring non-toxic materials, which play a pivotal role for emerging technologies and
which are predominantly produced and exported from China. Estimations of China`s hold on the REMs
market are as high as 97% of the world production. REMs are grouped together in the periodic table
and include 15 lanthanides, plus scandium and yttrium; they have similar properties, most importantly
to discharge and accept electrons. Rare-earth metals have played a crucial role in most of the
technological breakthroughs of the past three decades, although this fact remains largely unknown. In
the USSR for instance, the importance of REMs was kept a national secret until 1993. REMs are vital for
making rechargeable batteries for hybrid cars, magnets of high performance, fluorescent light bulbs or
for computer hard disks. REMs are also critical for modern military technology and are considered
irreplaceable due to their life cycle and lack of other substitutes. The US now registers a nearly total
reliance on REMs from China for producing military equipment, including guided bombs, missile
defence systems or night vision technologies. They are also used for directed energy weapons, such as
jamming devices, electromagnetic rail guns, or laser weapons (extensively used in Afghanistan), electric
drive motors, radars, and sonar transducers. The use of night vision instruments, for instance, which is
based on the REM lanthanum, is considered to have played a decisive role in the US military dominance
during the Gulf War. Increasingly, the access to REMs is acknowledged as a matter of national security
and a special report in September 2013 for the US Congress singularized the relevance of rare earths to
national defence. Despite the name- rare- which denotes scarcity, REMs are not that uncommon. In
fact, in total quantity, they are more available in the earth`s crust than silver, gold or platinum.
However, while they are not altogether scarce, extraction and production is difficult, costly and
polluting. Especially relevant from a geopolitical viewpoint is that now rare-earth metals are
predominantly mined and exported from one country, China. Up until the mid twentieth century, India,
Brazil and South Africa were major sources, followed by the United States from the 1960s to the 1980s.
The United States still holds about 13 million metric tons of rare earth elements according to the US
Geological Survey but these supplies have yet to be exploited. A steady increase in global demand for
REMs means that China, the main producer, is faced both with a strain on its resources but also a high
leverage on supply, prices and availability. In order to prioritize its internal needs but also to limit
exports and availability for others (given their importance for high-tech industries and the military), it
already established a quota system for the export of REMs, set at 15,110 metric tons for 2014, which
represents a 2.5% decline from last year. This will follow a trend that started in 2005 and was only
briefly reversed in 2012 and 2013. The nadir of rare earth trade was reached in 2010, which emphasized
the disruptive effects that China`s unilateral decisions regarding rare earths can have on the US,
Japanese and EU economies. Then, China`s exports declined by 70%, spiking prices up to 40%, causing
alarm among the economies and industries that rely on rare-earth metals and a so-called rare-earth
metals crisis. Concomitantly, as smuggling and illegal mining thrived on this highly lucrative market,
China has also recently started a vigorous crackdown on illegal activity and took steps for greater
regulation of the rare earth metals sector. In the United States and Japan, the leading buyers of China`s

Page | 15
rare-earth metals, the prospects of reduced imports for the following year has already sparked warnings
that some companies would have to reduce production. In this context, the US, Japan and the European
Union submitted complaints against China`s illegal restrictions to the World Trade Organization dispute
settlement body. In October last year, the WTO ruled that China`s export policies in the field of REMs
violate the international trade regime. The victory registered by the complainant parties (temporary,
since China can still appeal it) does not obfuscate the deeper issue, which is that what is needed in the
medium and long term is a strategy to curb or eliminate this precarious dependency. The search for a
diversification of suppliers is already underway. Explorations in Afghanistan in 2011 of rare volcanic
rocks led to the discovery of a high concentration of REMs, enough to fill the world needs for the next
ten years. Very recently, assessments in North Korea claim to have discovered the largest deposit of rare
earth metals in the world. A high global competition over these resources is expected to surge,
especially as the countries hosting these resources are volatile, unpredictable and weak. In the larger
geopolitical picture of resources, the importance of rare earths promises to gain further momentum in
the near future. Given their essential role to modern technology, they might replace the oil exploration
rush of the 20th century and, in the process, reconfigure new powerful players on the international
arena.

Dependence on other countries for REEs cause price rises that eviscerates our defense
industrial base and economic competitiveness
Parthemore, 11 Christine, Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Elements of Security,
http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Minerals_Parthemore_1.pdf
The 2010 rare earths case and others are increasing interest in critical minerals among U.S.
policymakers. Congress held hearings on the strategic importance of minerals between 2007 and 2010, and the 2010 National Defense
Authorization Act required DOD to study and report on its dependence on rare earth elements for weapons, communications and other systems. 3 During a 2009 hearing on minerals and military readi - ness, Republican
Representative Randy Forbes of Virginia called minerals, one of those things that no one really talks about or worries
about until something goes wrong. Its at that point the point where we dont have the steel we need to build MRAPs
[Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehi - cles] or the rhenium we need to build a JSF [Joint Strike Fighter] engine that the stockpile becomes critically important. 4 In October 2010, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham
Clinton stated that it would be in our interests commercially and strategically to find additional
sources of supply for rare earth minerals, and stated that Chinas recent cuts to rare earth exports served as a
wakeup call that being so dependent on only one source, disruption could occur for natural disaster
reasons or other kinds of events could intervene. 5 In January 2011, Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo.,
wrote a letter to Defense Secretary Robert Gates express - ing concern for minerals required for producing defense equipment such as Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), which stated, Clearly, rare
earth supply limitations present a serious vul nerability to our national security. Yet early indications are that DOD has
dismissed the severity of the situation to date. 6 Additionally, the Department of Energy (DOE) launched a multiyear effort to explore potential vulnerabilities in supply
chains for minerals that will be critical to four distinct areas of energy technology innovation. While concern is growing, the media and policy - makers often focus too narrowly on what may seem the most compelling indicators
usually import dependence or scarcity in prescribing solutions to reduce U.S. vulnerabilities, in particular to supply disruptions in critical minerals such as rare earths. This focus is sparking protectionist attitudes, with some
worrying that import dependence poses an inherent risk to the U.S. economy. Discussion of minerals also frequently focuses on supply scarcity and resource depletion in absolute terms. However, both the rhenium and rare
earth minerals dis - ruptions of the past five years were triggered by deliberate decisions made by political leaders to leverage their positions of strength, not by market forces, disorder or scarcities of these minerals. Countries
often revert to hoarding, pressuring suppliers and otherwise behaving as if scarcities are present even when they are not, based solely on concerns that shortages are likely in the near term. In fact, neither scarcity nor import
dependence alone is sufficient to signal vulnerability, and a combination of factors including concentration of suppliers is most often required for mineral issues to become security or foreign policy problems. This report, based
on two years of research, site visits and discussions with stakeholders, explores how the supply, demand and use of minerals can impair U.S. foreign relations, economic interests and defense readiness. It examines cases of five
individual min - erals lithium, gallium, rhenium, tantalum and niobium and rare earth elements, such as neo - dymium, samarium and dysprosium, as a sixth group in order to show the complexity of addressing these
concerns. Each of these minerals is critical for defense technologies and U.S. economic growth plans. They share characteristics with minerals that have caused important political or economic concerns for the United States in
the past. Additionally, lithium is fre - quently cited in the media and in discussions of how clean energy supply chains are critical to meeting Americas future economic, energy and environmental goals. Within the past five years,
two of these cases rhenium and rare earth minerals have involved supply disruptions or important threats of disruptions for the United States and its allies. Each of these minerals will require federal government attention in
the coming years. assessing U.S. Vulnerability Analysts vary widely in assessing the implications of U.S. dependence on critical minerals, despite broad acceptance of the physical reality that mineral resources are finite and the
economic realities that requirements are ubiquitous and demand is growing. On one extreme, some analysts believe the 2010 incident between China and Japan sug - gests an approaching Hobbesian world in which resource
demands outstrip supplies for minerals, nonrenewable energy sources and even food sup - plies. History indicates that conflict over absolute scarcities is unlikely. At the other end of the spectrum, many still believe that an open
market and its invisible hand will continue to determine winners and losers with no serious repercussions or the United States given its purchasing power. In between these extremes, even staunch pragmatists will point to the
2010 China rare earths episode as proof of one basic tenet: The United States and other market-based economies no longer determine all the rules of global trade Central to this narrative is a conundrum for policymakers.
Reserve estimates show that global supplies of almost all minerals are ade - quate to meet expected global demands over the long term , and for decades into the future for most minerals. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
indicates, for example, that world sup - plies of rare earths will be adequate for more than 100 years. 13 These estimates, however, can be meaningless in the near term if supplies are insufficient, or if suppliers reduce
exports or otherwise manipulate trade. For example, most experts project that global production of rare earths will likely be insufficient to meet the worlds demand over the next two to three years. The long-term sufficiency of

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supplies has no practical effect because it takes years and high capital costs to start up new mining and processing businesses for rare earths. Thus, the risks of inaction are high. A range of political, economic and geographic
factors can disrupt supplies and cause price spikes that can create rifts in bilateral relations, trade disputes, accusations of economic sabotage and instability in countries that possess rare reserves of prized minerals. They can
also give supplier countries extraordinary leverage that can alter geopoliti - cal calculations, especially when single countries control most world supplies For U.S. policymakers, the risks fall into two rough categories:
Disruptions, delivery lags and price spikes that affect military assets and place unanticipated strains on
defense procurement budgets; and lack of affordable access to minerals and raw materials preventing important
national economic growth goals. The defense industrial base in the modern era differs greatly from any
previous time. Often, actual scarcity is not required for problems to arise, as concerns about future
scarcities often drive countries to behave as if shortages are occurring. The National Academies recently reported, The risk of
supply interruption arguably has increased or, at the very least, has become different from the mor---e traditional
threats associated with the more familiar ideas of war and conflict. 14 During World War I and World War II, for example, governments counted on
domestic steel production and even civilian willingness to contribute scrap materi - als for reuse and recycling for tanks and other equipment. In contrast, modern warfare relies on
globalized and privatized supply chains rather than a primarily domestic (and often government-run) network. Vulnerability
to mineral supply disruptions is likewise far broader and more complicated than it was in previous eras.
Policymakers should also consider minerals that play uniquely important roles in the American
economy. Rare earths, for example, are important in petroleum refining, which today enables the smooth
functioning of the economy. Looking to the longer term, much concern is turning toward minerals that may see
booming demand as the economy develops a greater reliance on energy efficiency and renewable
energy technologies, such as the lithium used in advanced batteries and hybrid and electric vehicles. These minerals will directly affect U.S.
economic competitiveness, and plans for improving economic growth and job development. This vulnerability is not a
new concern. Since the early 1900s, U.S. defense analysts and national policymakers have worried about U.S. vulnerabili - ties to supply disruptions of the minerals critical to manufacturing defense systems, from tanks and
munitions to communications equipment. These concerns were generally heightened in war - time. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo and related oil cri - ses of the 1970s further brought
into question the assumption that the United States could depend on imports, as it became apparent that broader global conditions and political decisions by other countries could dramatically hinder the U.S. abil - ity to
openly purchase sufficient commodities at affordable costs. This conclusion was reinforced when supply disruptions and threats of disruptions by apartheid-era South Africa, the hostile Soviet Union and its satellites led to a
wave of congressio - nal hearings, government reports and independent analysis of the conditions contributing to U.S. vulnerability Following these Cold War-era
events, policy - makers held hearings and commissioned studies in order to understand which specific
factors were most important in signaling that U.S. eco nomic and security interests may be in jeopardy.
American analysts generally agreed that the following factors were the most important to track: Level of
substitutes and the uniqueness of spe - cific minerals. Level of U.S. domestic supplies and dependence on foreign sources. Geographic
concentration of supplies. Stability of producing countries and their region. Distances and routes of supply chains. Availability of technology to recover and process the minerals. Economic price of the resources
themselves. Inability of foreign governments to coordinate minerals policies. Level of domestic demand in producing countries. Some of these concerns remain today, but changes in technology, economics and the
international security environment will pose new challenges as well. Analysts often pinpoint Chinas rising resource Elements of Security Mitigating the Risks of U.S.
Dependence on Critical Minerals JUNE 2011 12 | demand as the major new cause for concern, yet limited transparency and the
changing nature of the defense industrial base and the broader economy will also affect U.S. mineral
supplies in the coming decades. Looking forward, major concerns for the U.S. government will include: Lack of suffi - cient
information for policymakers; understanding the evolving energy paradigm; increasing exploration of space and seabed territory; and a changing
defense industrial base. Elements of Security Mitigating the Risks of U.S. Dependence on Critical Minerals JUNE 2011 12 | demand as the major new cause for concern, yet
limited transparency and the changing nature of the defense industrial base and the broader econ - omy will also affect U.S. mineral supplies in the coming decades. Looking forward, major concerns for the U.S. government will
include: Lack of suffi - cient information for policymakers; understanding the evolving energy paradigm; increasing explora - tion of space and seabed territory; and a changing defense industrial base. Poor information is a
major obstacle to address - ing critical mineral vulnerabilities, and it is creating conditions in which hype could drive policy debates. For
example, the media and oth - ers focused heavy attention throughout 2009 and 2010 on Bolivias potentially large lithium supplies, often noting the populist, and at times erratic, behavior of the Bolivian president as a reason
for great concern over future lithium availability. In reality, many independent experts agree that reliable exporters such as Chile and Argentina will prove to be the most important lithium suppliers for years, and supply gluts in
the lithium market will continue for the foresee - able future even in the face of rising demand. Yet the popular media focus on lithium rarely, if ever, includes this market information. 16 Identifying when and how mineral
supply disrup - tions (or threats of disruptions) could affect U.S. defense industries or foreign relations is further complicated by both often-long global supply chains and the nature of transactions. In some cases, natu - ral
disasters or strikes halt production at specific mines that produce large proportions of global supplies. In murkier cases, disruptions manifest as long contracting or legal
delays (often intentional, for pricing or political reasons) or long lags in delivery. Whether disruptions are abrupt and clear, or long and
uncertain, delivery times and prices of important energy technologies and military equip - ment can rise
significantly. Todays global supply chains are incredibly efficient, as companies have worked to reduce the slack in their transit routes and shipping
plans. This efficiency can save energy and money, but as infrastructure, routes and people are taken out of service, it also reduces options when things go wrong. 17 Four other
trends are changing the ways in which minerals affect U.S. security and foreign policy interests. Rare earth minerals are key to clean tech and electric grid security Efforts to develop alternative
energy sources will influence the global demand for minerals. Governments around the world are

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promoting a more sustainable, lower-carbon energy paradigm that includes increasing adoption of
renewable energy sources, energy efficiency technologies, advanced batteries and other products. Just as
rare earths and other minerals are critical to petroleum production, developing and manufac - turing wind turbines, solar
energy systems and efficient batteries on a large scale will drive new mineral demands. In particular, energy
storage will be critical in the coming decades for military- specific energy innovation, electric grid
security, clean energy development and much more. As a result, the Obama administration has already identified energy storage as a key technology area for
research and development investment. The Department of Energy has increased loans and grants related to energy storage, and DOD has begun fielding renewable energy generation and advanced energy storage units in
Afghanistan. Such significant investments in research and development are likely to produce new technolo - gies that trigger major
changes in global mineral requirements over the decades ahead, making it crucial for the U.S.
government to monitor min - eral supply chains Due to requirements for advanced technologies and components that can withstand extreme conditions, the expansion of
countries space capabilities over the coming decades will influence demand for critical minerals. A range of nations from India to Iran aim to bolster their reputa - tions as space powers and develop more advanced satellite
systems and launch capabilities. The U.S. government must therefore expect demand growth (and potentially growth that is not linear or predictable) for minerals like rare earths that are critical in space technologies. On the
supply side, many countries are considering the possibil - ity of mining space objects, and even the 2010 U.S. National Space Policy suggests that the United States should identify potentially resource-rich planetary objects.
Given the state of the modern defense industrial base, the National Academies of Science deter - mined in 2008, The Department of
Defense appears not to fully understand its needs for specific materials or to have adequate information
on their supply. 19 In the information age, the U.S. military increasingly relies on dual-use equipment and depends on
globalized supply chains. Military equipment for the modern battlefield includes communications
technologies, robotics, computer systems and space assets that are used by DOD, civilian government
agencies and private enterprises alike. Indeed, a 2008 Defense Science Board report noted, Military-relevant technol - ogy will continue to change rapidly and will be increasingly
global. 20 Defense supply chains are, therefore, less distinct from those in the broader economy as they once were, and the dual-use
nature of a broad range of assets also means that many supply chains are more globalized t han ever. Moreover, higher risk of and
uncertainty about supply disruptions owing to the fragmentation of global supply chains 21 can further
threaten assured access to critical minerals. Much of todays defense equipment is purchased directly from civilian vendors and designed to meet both civilian and military
needs. Consider modern warfares dependence on computer systems, satellites, radar and Global Positioning
System. The National Academies study notes, The glo - balization of materials production and supply has radically changed the ability of the United States to produce and to procure materials vital to defense needs,
and that the stockpiling system is inadequate given todays global supply systems These risks, coupled with long-enduring vulnerabilities, are
heightening concerns about U.S. access to minerals. We can gain an even deeper understanding of the security challenges involved by examining specific minerals in
detail.
AUVs accesses new supplies which are key for the military
Green14 (Tom, Senior Editor-in-Chief at Robotics Business Review,, 5-12-14, Robotics Business Review,
Deep Sea Dive for Rare Earth Elements,
http://www.roboticsbusinessreview.com/article/deep_sea_dive_for_rare_earth_elements)
After a year of falling prices and depleting customer inventories, buyers of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are coming
back into this $10B market, but now supplies are getting scarce and prices are beginning to soar. With populations consuming
metals and minerals on the rise, especially new middle-class consumers in China and India, demand is set to skyrocket. Future
supply chains and national economies will witness major disruptions, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
study: Minerals and metals scarcity in manufacturing: The ticking time bomb. Three deep-ocean mining companies, Nautilus
Minerals; UK Seabed Resources (the British division of Lockheed Martin); and DeepGreen Resources, plan to mine the sea floor under the
Pacific Ocean (most notably in the Bismarck Sea off Papua New Guinea) using a combination of remotely operated or autonomous
underwater vehicles, pumps, suction and riser pipes to extract the minerals. These REEs, with odd monikers like lanthanum, cerium,
praseodymium, promethium, neodymium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and
lutetium, are not household names, but what they do makes every householdand the people in those householdslive better lives.
For example, most of our fancy electronic gadgetslike our Smartphones and laptopsdepend on REEs to operate.
Better yet for this Pacific sea hunt, the REEs arent alone on the sea floor: staggering levels of magnesium, gold, silver,

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cobalt, nickel and copper are there for the taking as well; much of which are easy pickings as mineral-rich nodules
scattered over the sea bottom. Frontrunner: Nautilus Minerals Of the three contenders, the Canadian company, Nautilus
Minerals (TSX:NUS), is the more ready to mine. Nautilus plans to deploy three machines, operated by remote control. Operators
sitting on a ship stationed above the deposit will control mine-bots on the seafloor: an initial cutter for clearance; a bulk cutter to do most
of the work; and a machine to collect and transport the material to a pumping station. slurry ship The material will then be
pumped up in slurry form to the ship, where it will be de-watered and set to shore for processing. For nodules, robots will roam the seabed.
Critical to high-tech everything REEs are metals with unique physical, chemical and light-emitting properties vital to hybrid
vehicles, rechargeable batteries, wind turbines (renewable energy) mobile (cell) phones, compact fluorescent light
bulbs, laptop computers, disk drives, catalytic converters, and LED, Plasma, and LCD display panels. Neodymium, for example, is responsible for
ensuring that the likes of Smartphones, hard drives, earphones, even MRI scanners, do the job they are designed to do. Far from abundant on
land With over 30 percent of the worlds known REE deposits and by far the cheapest extraction process, China
supplies 95 percent of the worlds REEs. However, China, with a rising middle class and booming domestic market, is steadily
reducing export quotas. The Word Trade Organization (WTO), of which China is a member, ruled in March of 2014 that China was hoarding
and taking unfair advantage of the market. That decision was two years in coming, and now China will appeal the current WTO
judgment, which might take another two years. Byron Capital analyst, John Hykawy said Ive heard from so many critical materials buyers at
large corporations that they want security of supply. And security of supply to them means avoiding Chinese supply at all costs because they
got fooled once. They dont want to get fooled again. 2- to 3-miles down: REEs not alone on the seabed In the meantime, REEs are again
getting to be in short supply, and with demand forecast to progressively increase, the world drastically needs
new suppliers of REEs. The London Metal Exchange lists neodymium at $800 Kg; terbium metal at 1,900 Kg; and scandium metal 15,500.00
per Kg. Relatively inexpensive is lanthanum at $13 Kg. However, the battery in a Toyota Prius hybrid requires more than 10kg of lanthanum.
Now multiply $130 times millions of Toyotas and the need for lots of lanthanum comes into focus. Stephen Ball, chief executive officer of
Lockheed Martin UK, owner of UK Seabed Resources, told the BBC Its another source of minerals theres a shortage and theres
difficulty getting access, so theres strategic value for the UK government in getting an opportunity to get
these minerals. UK Seabed Resources says surveys have revealed huge numbers of nodules small lumps of rock rich in valuable metals
lying on the ocean floor south of Hawaii and west of Mexico. The exact value of these resources is impossible to calculate
reliably, but a leading UN official described the scale of mineral deposits in the worlds oceans as staggering with several hundred
years worth of cobalt and nickel. These tennis-ball sized nodules, found approximately four kilometers (2.5 miles) beneath the oceans
surface, can provide millions of tons of copper, nickel, cobalt and manganese, as well as rare earth minerals, that
are used in the construction, aerospace, alternative energy, and communications industries, among others,
reports Lockheed Martin. The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology and the University of Tokyo confirmed the discovery of a
huge new deposit on the Pacific seabed, claiming the deposit can be mined at very low cost and will be able to
produce materials that are 20 to 30 times more concentrated than those currently being mined in
China. Robot submersibles hold the key Located approximately 5,700 meters or 3.5 miles down, the Japanese scientists claim the deposits
to be approximately 6.8 million metric tons of rare earths, equivalent to 230 years of local demand. Although subsea mining at
depths of 500 feet or less has been carried out for some time, deep sea projects have had to await
technology, which is now coming on line, funded by companies like Nautilus Minerals, with subsea robot mining tools built by
technology partners like Soil Machine Dynamics.
Collapse of heg causes great power conflicts- no alternatives can solve
Brooks et al 13 [Stephen G. Brooks is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College.G.
John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton
University in the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International
Affairs. He is also a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University.William C. Wohlforth is the Daniel
Webster Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. Don't Come Home,
America: The Case against Retrenchment, Winter 2013, Vol. 37, No. 3, Pages 7-51,
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ISEC_a_00107]

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A core premise of deep engagement is that it prevents the emergence of a far more dangerous global security environment. For
one thing, as noted above, the United States overseas presence gives it the leverage to restrain partners from
taking provocative action. Perhaps more important, its core alliance commitments also deter states with aspirations to
regional hegemony from contemplating expansion and make its partners more secure, reducing their
incentive to adopt solutions to their security problems that threaten others and thus stoke security dilemmas. The contention
that engaged U.S. power dampens the baleful effects of anarchy is consistent with influential variants of realist theory.
Indeed, arguably the scariest portrayal of the war-prone world that would emerge absent the American Pacifier is provided in the
works of John Mearsheimer, who forecasts dangerous multipolar regions replete with security competition, arms
races, nuclear proliferation and associated preventive war temptations, regional rivalries, and even runs at regional hegemony
and full-scale great power war. 72 How do retrenchment advocates, the bulk of whom are realists, discount this benefit? Their arguments are
complicated, but two capture most of the variation: (1) U.S. security guarantees are not necessary to prevent dangerous rivalries and conflict in Eurasia; or (2) prevention of rivalry and conflict
in Eurasia is not a U.S. interest. Each response is connected to a different theory or set of theories, which makes sense given that the whole debate hinges on a complex future counterfactual
(what would happen to Eurasias security setting if the United States truly disengaged?). Although a certain answer is impossible, each of these responses is nonetheless a weaker
argument for retrenchment than advocates acknowledge. The first response flows from defensive realism as well as other international relations theories that discount the conflict-generating
potential of anarchy under contemporary conditions. 73 Defensive realists maintain that the high expected costs of territorial
conquest, defense dominance, and an array of policies and practices that can be used credibly to signal benign intent, mean that
Eurasias major states could manage regional multipolarity peacefully without the American pacifier. Retrenchment would be a bet on
this scholarship, particularly in regions where the kinds of stabilizers that nonrealist theories point tosuch as democratic
governance or dense institutional linkagesare either absent or weakly present. There are three other major bodies of
scholarship, however, that might give decisionmakers pause before making this bet. First is regional expertise. Needless to say, there is no consensus on the net
security effects of U.S. withdrawal. Regarding each region, there are optimists and pessimists. Few experts expect a return of intense great power competition in a
post-American Europe, but many doubt European governments will pay the political costs of increased EU defense cooperation and the budgetary costs of increasing military outlays. 74 The
result might be a Europe that is incapable of securing itself from various threats that could be destabilizing
within the region and beyond (e.g., a regional conflict akin to the 1990s Balkan wars), lacks capacity for global security missions in which U.S. leaders might want
European participation, and is vulnerable to the influence of outside rising powers. What about the other parts of Eurasia where the United
States has a substantial military presence? Regarding the Middle East, the balance begins to swing
toward pessimists concerned that states currently backed by Washington notably Israel, Egypt, and Saudi
Arabiamight take actions upon U.S. retrenchment that would intensify security dilemmas. And concerning East
Asia, pessimism regarding the regions prospects without the American pacifier is pronounced. Arguably the
principal concern expressed by area experts is that Japan and South Korea are likely to obtain a nuclear capacity and increase their
military commitments, which could stoke a destabilizing reaction from China. It is notable that during the Cold War, both South Korea and
Taiwan moved to obtain a nuclear weapons capacity and were only constrained from doing so by a still-engaged United States. 75 The second
body of scholarship casting doubt on the bet on defensive realisms sanguine portrayal is all of the research that undermines its conception of state preferences. Defensive
realisms optimism about what would happen if the United States retrenched is very much dependent on its
particularand highly restrictiveassumption about state preferences; once we relax this assumption, then much of its basis for
optimism vanishes. Specifically, the prediction of post-American tranquility throughout Eurasia rests on the assumption
that security is the only relevant state preference, with security defined narrowly in terms of protection from violent external attacks on the
homeland. Under that assumption, the security problem is largely solved as soon as offense and defense are clearly distinguishable, and offense is extremely expensive relative to defense.
Burgeoning research across the social and other sciences, however, undermines that core assumption: states have
preferences not only for security but also for prestige, status, and other aims, and they engage in trade-offs among the various
objectives. 76 In addition, they define security not just in terms of territorial protection but in view of many and varied milieu goalsd. It
follows that even states that are relatively secure may nevertheless engage in highly competitive behavior. Empirical studies
show that this is indeed sometimes the case. 77 In sum, a bet on a benign postretrenchment Eurasia is a bet that leaders of major countries will never allow these
nonsecurity preferences to influence their strategic choices. To the degree that these bodies of scholarly knowledge have predictive leverage, U.S. retrenchment would
result in a significant deterioration in the security environment in at least some of the worlds key regions. We have already

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mentioned the third, even more alarming body of scholarship. Offensive realism predicts that the withdrawal of the American pacifier will yield either
a competitive regional multipolarity complete with associated insecurity, arms racing, crisis instability,
nuclear proliferation, and the like, or bids for regional hegemony, which may be beyond the capacity of local great powers to
contain (and which in any case would generate intensely competitive behavior, possibly including regional great power war). Hence it is unsurprising that
retrenchment advocates are prone to focus on the second argument noted above: that avoiding wars and security dilemmas in the worlds core regions is not a U.S. national interest. Few
doubt that the United States could survive the return of insecurity and conflict among Eurasian powers, but at what cost? Much of the work in this area has focused on the economic
externalities of a renewed threat of insecurity and war, which we discuss below. Focusing on the pure security ramifications, there are two main reasons why decisionmakers
may be rationally reluctant to run the retrenchment experiment. First, overall higher levels of conflict make the
world a more dangerous place. Were Eurasia to return to higher levels of interstate military
competition, one would see overall higher levels of military spending and innovation and a higher likelihood of competitive regional proxy wars and
arming of client statesall of which would be concerning, in part because it would promote a faster diffusion of military power
away from the United States. Greater regional insecurity could well feed proliferation cascades, as states such as Egypt, Japan,
South Korea, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia all might choose to create nuclear forces. 78 It is unlikely that proliferation
decisions by any of these actors would be the end of the game: they would likely generate pressure locally for more proliferation.
Following Kenneth Waltz, many retrenchment advocates are proliferation optimists, assuming that nuclear deterrence solves the security problem. 79 Usually carried out in dyadic terms, the
debate over the stability of proliferation changes as the numbers go up. Proliferation optimism rests on assumptions of rationality and narrow security preferences. In social science, however,
such assumptions are inevitably probabilistic. Optimists assume that most states are led by rational leaders, most will overcome organizational problems and resist the temptation to preempt
before feared neighbors nuclearize, and most pursue only security and are risk averse. Confidence in such probabilistic assumptions declines if the world were to move from nine to twenty,
thirty, or forty nuclear states. In addition, many of the other dangers noted by analysts who are concerned about the destabilizing effects of
nuclear proliferationincluding the risk of accidents and the prospects that some new nuclear powers will not
have truly survivable forcesseem prone to go up as the number of nuclear powers grows. 80 Moreover, the risk of
unforeseen crisis dynamics that could spin out of control is also higher as the number of nuclear powers increases. Finally,
add to these concerns the enhanced danger of nuclear leakage, and a world with overall higher levels of security competition becomes yet more
worrisome. The argument that maintaining Eurasian peace is not a U.S. interest faces a second problem. On widely accepted realist assumptions, acknowledging that
U.S. engagement preserves peace dramatically narrows the difference between retrenchment and deep
engagement. For many supporters of retrenchment, the optimal strategy for a power such as the United States, which has attained regional hegemony and is separated from other
great powers by oceans, is offshore balancing: stay over the horizon and pass the buck to local powers to do the dangerous work of counterbalancing any local rising power.
The United States should commit to onshore balancing only when local balancing is likely to fail and a great power appears to be a credible contender for regional hegemony, as in the cases of
Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union in the midtwentieth century. The problem is that Chinas rise puts the possibility of its attaining
regional hegemony on the table, at least in the medium to long term. As Mearsheimer notes, The United States will have to play a
key role in countering China, because its Asian neighbors are not strong enough to do it by themselves. 81 Therefore, unless Chinas
rise stalls, the United States is likely to act toward China similar to the way it behaved toward the Soviet
Union during the Cold War. 82 It follows that the United States should take no action that would compromise its capacity to move to onshore balancing in the future. It will
need to maintain key alliance relationships in Asia as well as the formidably expensive military capacity to
intervene there. The implication is to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan, reduce the presence in Europe, and pivot to Asia just what the United States is doing. 83 In sum, the
argument that U.S. security commitments are unnecessary for peace is countered by a lot of scholarship, including highly influential realist scholarship. In addition, the argument that Eurasian
peace is unnecessary for U.S. security is weakened by the potential for a large number of nasty security consequences as well as the need to retain a latent onshore balancing capacity that
dramatically reduces the savings retrenchment might bring. Moreover, switching between offshore and onshore balancing could well be
difficult. Bringing together the thrust of many of the arguments discussed so far underlines the degree to which the case for retrenchment misses the underlying logic of the deep
engagement strategy. By supplying reassurance, deterrence, and active management, the United States lowers
security competition in the worlds key regions, thereby preventing the emergence of a hothouse atmosphere for
growing new military capabilities. Alliance ties dissuade partners from ramping up and also provide
leverage to prevent military transfers to potential rivals. On top of all this, the United States formidable military
machine may deter entry by potential rivals. Current great power military expenditures as a percentage of GDP are at historical lows, and thus far other
major powers have shied away from seeking to match top-end U.S. military capabilities. In addition, they have so far been careful to avoid attracting the focused enmity of the United States.
84 All of the worlds most modern militaries are U.S. allies (Americas alliance system of more than sixty countries now accounts for some 80 percent of global military spending), and the gap
between the U.S. military capability and that of potential rivals is by many measures growing rather than shrinking. 85

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Total rejection of US leadership would increase imperialism and colonialism.
Reus-mit 04(Christian REUS-SMIT IR @ Australian Natl 4 American Power and World Order p. 121-
123)
My preference here is to advocate a forward-leaning, prudential strategy of institutionally governed change.
By `forward-leaning', I mean that the progressive realization of cosmopolitan values should be the measure of successful politics in
international society. As long as gross violations of basic human rights mar global social life, we, as individuals, and the states
that purport to represent us, have obligations to direct what political influence we have to the improvement of
the human condition, both at home and abroad. I recommend, however, that our approach be prudent rather than imprudent.
Historically, the violence of inter-state warfare and the oppression of imperial rule have been deeply
corrosive of basic human rights across the globe. The institutions of international society, along with their
constitutive norms, such as sovereignty, non-intervention, self-determination and limits on the use of force, have helped to
reduce these corrosive forces dramatically. The incidence of inter-state wars has declined markedly, even
though the number of states has multiplied, and imperialism and colonialism have moved from being core institutions of international society
to practices beyond the pale. Prudence dictates, therefore, that we lean forward without losing our footing on valuable institutions and norms.
This means, in effect, giving priority to institutionally governed change, working with the rules and
procedures of international society rather than against them. What does this mean in practice? In general, I take it to
mean two things. First, it means recognizing the principal rules of international society, and accepting the
obligations they impose on actors, including oneself. These rules fall into two broad categories:
procedural and substantive. The most specific procedural rules are embodied in institutions such as the United Nations Security
Council, which is empowered to 'determine the existence of any threat to peace, breach of the peace or act
of aggression' and the measures that will be taken 'to maintain or restore international peace and
security'.28 More general, yet equally crucial, procedural rules include the cardinal principle that states are only bound by rules to which
they have consented. Even customary international law, which binds states without their express consent, is based in part on the assumption of
their tacit consent. The substantive rules of international society are legion, but perhaps the most important are the rules governing the use of
force, both when force is permitted (jus ad bellum) and how it may be used (jus in bello). Second, working with the rules and
procedures of international society also means recognizing that the principal modality of innovation and
change must be communicative. That is, establishing new rules and mechanisms for achieving
cosmopolitan ends and international public goods, or modifying existing ones, should be done through
persuasion and negotiation, not ultimatum and coercion. A premium must be placed, therefore, on
articulating the case for change, on recognizing the concerns and interests of others as legitimate, on
building upon existing rules, and on seeing genuine communication as a process of give and take, not demand and take.
Giving priority to institutionally governed change may seem an overly conservative strategy, but it need
not be. As explained above, the established procedural and substantive rules of international society have delivered international public
goods that actually further cosmopolitan ends, albeit in a partial and inadequate fashion. Eroding these rules would only lead to
increases in inter-state violence and imperialism, and this would almost certainly produce a radical
deterioration in the protection of basic human rights across the globe. Saying that we ought to preserve these rules is
prudent, not conservative. More than this, though, we have learnt that the institutions of international society have transformative potential,
even if this is only now being creatively exploited.


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Scenario 2: South China Sea Conflict
China uses REM monopoly to maintain leverage in the SCS with other Asian countries--
we must diversify to destroy their advantage
Ihle 12. Heiko Ihle is a Senior Research Analyst with Euro Pacific Control. Rare Earths Could Be Pawn in
Island Spat... Again October 9, 2012.
http://www.europac.net/commentaries/rare_earths_could_be_pawn_island_spat_again
We've written before about rare earth elements (REEs): the futuristic sounding group of 17 minerals with unpronounceable names that
play a critical role in everything from hybrid cars to flat screen TVs. Of course, "rare" is something of a misnomer, as the
minerals that make up the group are not all that rare. They are, however, difficult to mine in profitable
concentrations. As of now, China controls over 90 percent of the world's rare earth mining concerns. In the
past, this near monopoly has allowed them to exert a significant influence over both price and supply. In
2010 and 2011, China used its position to send prices on a roller coaster ride, causing some individual
minerals to quadruple in price. In 2011, prices for some elements doubled again, hitting record highs. The
catalyst that caused China's use (or misuse) of its near-monopoly power in 2010 was a dispute over
some seemingly meaningless rocks in the South China Sea. Though currently uninhabited, many believe that the islands
sit on top of valuable oil and gas reserves. Beyond that, both countries view the territory as an iss ue of sovereignty in the East China Sea.
Until very recently, the islands, while officially controlled by Japan, were privately held. In September of that year, Japan
arrested a Chinese fishing crew whose boat had collided with two Japanese Coast Guard vessels near
the contested Diaoyu Islands (called the Senkaku Islands by Japan). The islands have been claimed by China but
are under official Japanese control. The boat captain's 16-day incarceration ignited long simmering
tensions between the two Asian powers. Over the course of the dispute, China took the gloves off and hit Japan
where it hurts: It halted shipments of rare earth elements to Japan, the world's largest importer. Japan
had traditionally bought 60% of China's rare mineral supply for its high tech manufacturing industries.
Predictably, prices spiked around the world. The embargo even spread briefly to the United States and Europe after US
officials announced plans to investigate China for possible WTO violations. Through it all, China stuck with its official
stance, stating that no countries were being targeted but, rather, the shipment slowdowns were a result
of increased regulation in the rare earths industry. But as many experts have suggested, China's unofficial embargo served
as an effective ploy to manipulate prices (and punish international rivals) without implementing a policy change that would have exposed
her to withering World Trade Organization (WTO) complaints from rival nations. Even without an overt policy change, the US, EU, and
Japan did ultimately file such a complaint. After simmering down for a year or so tensions over the islands have
flared up again. This time around, things could get worse. In mid-August, Japan arrested 14 Chinese activists for planting
a flag on the disputed islands. While the protesters were quickly sent home, their arrest reignited tensions. To make matters even more
volatile the Japanese government just announced plans to buy the islands (which had been privately held even while they have been under
Japanese political control). The announcement has produced a stronger reaction from China than the arrest of its citizens. According to the
FT, China's news organization, Xinhua, reacted to the decision by saying, "that Tokyo had thrown bilateral relations into t he scalding pot"
and by warning that Japan's actions would have "serious consequences." It is unclear what, exactly, Beijing will do in
response to the move, but the official government position views it as a violation of China's sovereignty and a
breaking of long-held-if essentially unspoken-agreements between the two countries.

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Unchecked Chinese expansionism causes SCS annexation-- the ONLY reason countries
wont act is because of dependence
Eric Posner,5/28/14 "China Can Sink All the Boats in the South China Sea 'International law wont stop
big countries from bullying littler, Eric Posner, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School, is a
co-author of The Executive Unbound: After the Madisonian Republic and Climate Change
Justice."http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_chicago/2014/05/china_has_the
_power_to_sink_vietnamese_boats_in_the_south_china_sea.html//AKP
The South China Sea looks like a tongue hanging down from the Chinese mainland to its north. Vietnam
lies to the west, Malaysia to the south, the Philippines and Taiwan to the east. Rocks, shoals, reefs, and
islands dot the sea. Fisheries abound, oil gurgles beneath the seabed. The countries that line its coasts
all hunger for these resources. But they disagree over who owns what. Lately the temperature is rising
in these decades-old conflicts. Last week, Vietnam signaled that it might join the Philippines in a legal
action against China. Vietnam wants to stop China from exploring for oil in a part of the South China Sea
that Vietnam claims for itself, while the Philippines is smarting over Chinas eviction of Philippine
fishermen from traditional fishing grounds back in 2012. Both Vietnam and the Philippines have strong
claims, and so it might seem reasonable for them to seek arbitration. But a tribunal cant stop China
from bullying its neighbors. The countries can halt Chinese expansion into the South China Sea only if
the United States backs them up, and it is unlikely that the United States will . Over the long run, it cant.
The major flash points begin with the Paracel Islands in the northwest, where China and Vietnam
clashed over an oil rig that China sent for exploration. When Vietnamese vessels tried to stop the rig
from entering Vietnamese waters, Chinese ships allegedly rammed the Vietnamese ships and blasted
them with water cannons. On Monday, a Vietnamese fishing boat sank after being rammed by a Chinese
vessel (according to Hanoi) or trying to ram a Chinese vessel (according to Beijing). In the Spratly Islands
in the southeast, where China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, and the Philippines all vie for control,
Chinese vessels fired upon Vietnamese commercial ships in 2011. And China kicked Philippine fishing
vessels out of the waters surrounding the Scarborough Shoal in the east. Chinese aggression has stoked
nationalist resentments in all these countries, especially in Vietnam, where anti-China riots recently
broke out. Under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, countries are entitled to marine resources
that lie within 200 nautical miles of their coastline or islands they own (in an area called the Exclusive
Economic Zone). They also own mineral rights in the continental shelf that juts out from their territories.
The smaller countries mostly follow these rules. China, by contrast, ignores them to claim nearly the
entire South China Sea. In 2009, the Chinese government filed a map of the South China Sea region with
the UN. The map displayed a line, composed of nine dashes that followed the seas outline all the way
around, leaving only a thin band of water for Chinas neighbors along their respective coasts. This nine-
dash line, as it came to be called, suggested that China claimed the marine resources in nearly the entire
South China Sea. The map above shows the extraordinary scale of Chinas claim. China has never offered
an official legal justification for the nine-dash line. Robert Kaplan, in his new book Asias Cauldron,
quotes a high-level official of one of the neighboring states: The Chinese never give any legal
justifications for their claims. They have a real Middle Kingdom mentality, and are dead set against
taking these disputes to court. But China has hinted that its claims are blessed by history. This seems
to mean that China owns these resources because various Chinese governments in the distant past
regarded all the islands in the South China Sea, and maybe the sea itself, as a part of its imperium. The
argument echoes the Chinese position in its fight with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the

Page | 24
north. As Ive explained, international law does not accept Chinas argumentone must occupy an
island in order to own it. Countries, like people, cant take ownership of something just by saying so.
The Law of the Sea Treaty limits China to 200 nautical miles plus its continental shelf just like everyone
else. China may be willing to compromise, or it may nothard to know, since all the country will
officially say is that the countries disagree, and these disagreements should be worked out over time.
This sounds like an effort to be reasonable, but its really just a tactic. Time is on Chinas side. The
county is just too damn big, and getting bigger all the time. Chinas economy has grown much faster
than those of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and the other countries, and will continue to do so for
the foreseeable future. Chinas neighbors are becoming ever more dependent on China for trade and
investment. They need China more than China needs them, and China is building a navy they cannot
match. When a bully threatens the cowpokes, its time to call in the sheriff. The Philippines and Vietnam
hope to use the arbitration procedure established under the Law of the Sea Treaty to force Chinas
hand. If the arbitrators rule against China, this might dampen Chinas argument that the legal
disagreements are too complicated to resolve anytime soon. But China has refused to participate in the
arbitration and will disregard any judgment against it. And that will be that. The judges can no more
compel China to yield the Spratlys or Paracels than they could detach those islands from the seabed and
tow them away. Chinas neighbors hope that if they build a strong legal case, the United States will use
force to repel a China takeover. But that wont happen. The U.S. navy is bigger than Chinas, but it
patrols the globe, while Chinas can focus on the swimming pool in its backyard. Do we really care
whether a Vietnamese oil company or a Chinese oil company extracts oil from the seabed around the
Paracels and sells it on the global market? Or whether poor Philippine fishermen or poor Chinese
fisherman get to catch fish off Scarborough Shoal? Not nearly enough to go to fight with China over a
rock or reef in the middle of the oceanas China seems to be betting. Just as we are learning that we
can live with a Ukraine that lies within the orbit of Russia, we will need to learn that we can live with a
Chinese sphere of influence in the South China Sea. This may seem to be hard on the countries that are
being bullied. Some commentators warn of Finlandization: Finland accommodated itself to the
Russian bear during the Cold War by turning inward and adopting foreign policies that the superpower
could live with. Now its the South China Sea countries that must yield to the Chinese dragon. But the
fact is that most countries are Finlandized. Canada and Mexico, in the sense that they must
accommodate themselves to U.S. foreign policy. Ukraine is Finlandizing itself to Russia as we speak. As
long as China allows its neighbors to govern themselves, and doesnt try to conquer themand there is
no reason to believe Beijing wants to go that farthe United States should leave it alone in the South
China Sea.
South China Sea war goes nuclear
Denmark 5/31 2014 Abraham M. Denmark is Vice President for Political and Security Affairs at The National Bureau
of Asian Research. He previously served as Country Director for China Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Could
Tensions in the South China Sea Spark a War? National Interest May 31, 2014 http://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-
tensions-the-south-china-sea-spark-war-10572
One topic that is raised regularly in both countries is, a bit incongruously, Crimea. Elites in both Manila and Vietnam see much of
themselves in Ukrainea small nation embroiled in a serious territorial dispute with their (relatively)
economically vital and militarily dominant neighbor. Russias intervention and subsequent annexation of Crimea seemed to
demonstrate to leaders in Southeast Asia that economic dependence and military weakness is a geopolitical liability, and that territorial integrity and national

Page | 25
sovereignty are not inviolate in the twenty-first century. These countries fear that Russia has set the stage for China to use
force to take control over disputed territories. As a reaction, they are seeking to diversify their economies in order to reduce their
dependence on China while also building their own military power somewhat reduce Chinas military advantage. Vietnam has in recent years
purchased 6 Kilo-class submarines from Russia, maritime patrol aircraft from Canada, and Sigma Corvettes from the Netherlands. The
Philippines has likewise announced plans to increase its defense spending and to purchase three decommissioned
Hamilton-class cutters from the U.S. Coast Guard, along with twelve new FA-50 fighters from Korea. Both also seek to buttress their defense cooperation with the
United StatesHanois engagement with Washington has increased noticeably in recent years, and Manila recently signed an Enhanced Defense Cooperation
Agreement with Washington to strengthen defense cooperation and expand the American military presence in the Philippines. Vietnam and the
Philippines will not stand idly by as China gradually erodes their hold on what they believe to be their
territory. Yet they also do not want a war with Chinatheir strategy appears to be focused on resisting Chinas efforts to erode their claims while buying time
to build their power, reduce their dependence on China, and hope the international community will intervene. Manila has brought its dispute with China to the UN
Permanent Court of Arbitration, a decision from which is expected near the end of 2015. Moreover, both have turned to ASEAN to bring added geopolitical weight
to negotiations with Beijing to develop a legally binding maritime code of conduct in the South China Seaan agreement that would not affect the disputes
themselves, but would considerably reduce tensions. Chilly Times Ahead The future of these disputes is not promising for long-
term peace and stability. Neither side has demonstrated any interest in backing down or compromising,
and the potential for future escalation and crisis is high. Chinas approach to these disputes is particularly
problematic. Its refusal to compromise, its continued reliance on escalation, and its commitment to
change the status quo (no matter how gradually) is a recipe for persistent tension. Most troubling is the
confidence with which China approaches escalation. Beijing appears to see escalation as a tool that can
be used with absolute control and predictability. Chinas strategists and policy makers are fairly new to major power geopolitics, and
have not learned the lessons their American and Russian counterparts learned during the Cold War: that escalation is a dangerous tool, that an
adversary can respond in very unpredictable ways, and that tension can quickly spiral out of control. One
problem on the near horizon is how China will react to the arrest of Chinese fishermen by the Philippines. Beijing will certainly react, and will again seek to punish
Manila and strengthen Chinas claims in the process. One option would be to arrest Philippine fishermen operating in waters claimed by China. Another more likely
and more provocative response would be to evict the Philippine forces currently on the grounded Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Reef. China has already
harassed routine efforts by the Philippines to resupply those sailors, and may seek to tighten the blockade on the ship in order to force the sailors to withdraw. The
potential for shots to be fired or another ship to be rammed and sunk would be high, and lives may be lost. Without serious engagement, China is unlikely to back
down. Beijing has painted this issue as directly related to its territorial integrity and national sovereignty, and its recent public marking of the 95th anniversary of
the May 4 movementin which the existing government was overthrown by a popular uprising that judged Beijing as weak in the face of foreign exploitation
strongly suggests that Chinas leaders are sensitive to linkages between perceived weakness abroad and instability at home. With the growth of Chinas economy
likely to slow dramatically in coming years, Beijing appears to see incidents like these as useful in stirring nationalist sentiments at home to buttress the popular
legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Should China use force against the Philippines, no matter how much Beijing may try to
describe the act as defensive or reactive, the United States would probably be drawn into the crisiscertainly in a diplomatic
sense, and potentially in a military sense as well. The United States will be unlikely to back down in such a situation, as the
credibility of Americas willingness to intervene overseas has already come into question after decisions to not
intervene in Russias invasion of Ukraine or Assads crossing the chemical weapons redline in Syria. While Washington would certainly attempt to de-escalate
any crisis and prevent the use of force, it will also be sure to demonstrate will and resolve in order to both deter hostilities and reassure its allies. While the
United States is not a party to these disputes per se, it has a major interest in seeing them resolved peacefully. A conflict in the South
China Sea would be disastrous for regional trade and for U.S.-China relationsboth of which are of singular importance to the United States. The United
States could enhance deterrence for Beijing by raising the costs to China for additional incidentspotential initiatives include further
strengthening military cooperation with the other claimants in the South China Sea, building their military
capabilities, and enhancing mechanisms for multinational training and exercises. Additionally, Washington should work as an honest broker among all parties to
identify opportunities for de-escalation and to develop a roadmap to the peaceful resolution of disputes. The upcoming Strategic and Economic Dialogue is an
important opportunity for Beijing and Washington to speak directly about these issues and the dangers they post, and to find a way to prevent a crisis. China
and other claimants in the South China Sea are on a collision course, and it is incumbent on the United
States to demonstrate leadership by forestalling a future crisis that could throw the entire region into
conflict. Unless the claimants are able to turn away from aggression and see de-escalation as a useful tool of strategy, it is only a
matter of time until Beijing miscalculates and escalates over a redline that leads to crisis and raises the potential for conflict. A mix

Page | 26
of countries with incompatible, apparently nonnegotiable interests willing to use force and unwilling to acknowledge any way out than the absolute capitulation of
the other side is a highly dangerous mixthis is how wars start.
Prefer the specificity of our internal links. Its grounded in empirics and thats good it
shapes policy.
Walt 2k5 Professor Kennedy School of Government @ Harvard (Stephen M. The Relationship
Between Theory and Policy in International Relations. Rev. Polit. Sci. 2005. 8:23-48, pg. 25-26
http://www.iheid.ch/webdav/site/political_science/shared/political_science/3452/walt.pdf)

Policy decisions can be influenced by several types of knowledge. First, policy makers invariably rely on
purely factual knowledge (e.g., how large are the opponents forces? What is the current balance of payments?). Second, decision
makers sometimes employ rules of thumb: simple decision rules acquired through experience rather
than via systematic study (Mearsheimer 1989).3 A third type of knowledge consists of typologies, which classify phenomena based on sets of specific
traits. Policy makers can also rely on empirical laws. An empirical law is an observed correspondence
between two or more phenomena that systematic inquiry has shown to be reliable. Such laws (e.g.,
democracies do not fight each other or human beings are more risk averse with respect to losses
than to gains) can be useful guides even if we do not know why they occur, or if our explanations for
them are incorrect. Finally, policy makers can also use theories. A theory is a causal explanation it
identifies recurring relations between two or more phenomena and explains why that relationship
obtains. By providing us with a picture of the central forces that determine real-world behavior, theories
invariably simplify reality in order to render it comprehensible. At the most general level, theoretical IR
work consists of efforts by social scientists. . .to account for interstate and trans-state processes, issues,
and outcomes in general causal terms (Lepgold & Nincic 2001, p. 5; Viotti & Kauppi 1993). IR theories offer explanations
for the level of security competition between states (including both the likelihood of war among
particular states and the warproneness of specific countries); the level and forms of international
cooperation (e.g., alliances, regimes, openness to trade and investment); the spread of ideas, norms,
and institutions; and the transformation of particular international systems, among other topics. In
constructing these theories, IR scholars employ an equally diverse set of explanatory variables. Some of these
theories operate at the level of the international system, using variables such as the distribution of power among states (Waltz 1979, Copeland 2000, Mearsheimer
2001), the volume of trade, financial flows, and interstate communications (Deutsch 1969, Ruggie 1983, Rosecrance 1986); or the degree of institutionalization
among states (Keohane 1984, Keohane & Martin 2003). Other theories emphasize different national characteristics, such as regime type (Andreski 1980, Doyle
1986, Fearon 1994, Russett 1995), bureaucratic and organizational politics (Allison & Halperin 1972, Halperin 1972), or domestic cohesion (Levy 1989); or the
content of particular ideas or doctrines (Van Evera 1984, Hall 1989, Goldstein & Keohane 1993, Snyder 1993). Yet another family of theories operates at the
individual level, focusing on individual or group psychology, gender differences, and other human traits (De Rivera 1968, Jervis 1976, Mercer 1996, Byman&Pollock
2001, Goldgeier&Tetlock 2001, Tickner 2001, Goldstein 2003), while a fourth body of theory focuses on collective ideas, identities, and social discourse (e.g.,
Finnemore 1996, Ruggie 1998, Wendt 1999). To develop these ideas, IR theorists employ the full range of social science
methods: comparative case studies, formal theory, large-N statistical analysis, and hermeneutical or
interpretivist approaches.


Page | 27
Solvency
Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) development is inevitable, but Congress has
to act promptly to authorize, appropriate and coordinate a comprehensive national
program for it to workthat spurs P3s which streamline production and overcome
previous barriers
FIND 14 Federal information and news dispatch (FIND, House Transportation and Infrastructure
Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Hearing, federal press release,
http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/2014/02/07/house-transportation-and-infrastructure-
subcommittee-on-coast-guard-and-maritime-a-457472.html#.U6xpufmICQo, HW)
The AUV's evolution is taking place at an amazing rate of change. At the recent Coast Guard NAVSAC
meeting in Norfolk, VA, the NAVSAC panel received briefings from the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International
(AUVSI) about the surface and sub-surface autonomous vessels already in use by NOAA and the private
sector. The ocean already has thousands of autonomous WaveGlider & SHARC's upon it or below the
water's surface. These autonomous systems will become the Light Ships (ATONs) of our future, replacing
or certainly reducing the number of LNB's the Coast Guard maintains. These new ATONs are equipped
with hydrographic surveying tools (depth measuring devices) and have the capability to stay positioned
over a fixed position, avoid a hazard like a coastal rock or to re-position itself over a moving object like
the ever changing river bottom on major inland waterways. The future ATON built upon AUV technology
will recognize changing water levels, currents and atmospheric conditions and provide near real time
positioning and measurement data and be a more dynamic and responsive system of ATONs. This calls
attention to the importance of the services provided by NOAA's National Ocean Service (NOS), tri-
service office, comprised of the Office of Coast Survey (OCS), National Geodetic Survey (NGS) and Center
for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO- OPS). The demand for authoritative
hydrographic survey data cannot be fully met by the current level of funding for NOAA's navigation,
observations and positioning programs. The NOS services related navigation, observations and
positioning are crucial to the future development and deployment of the AUVs and future ATON
systems. Such NOS programs as GRAV-D and Coastal LIDAR that provide baseline foundation data are
critically important. These activities must be funded at least at the President's requested level, if not at a
higher level. Social Security Changes You Need to Know As a result, it is important that Congress
promptly reauthorize the Hydrographic Services Improvement Act, H.R. 1399, introduced by
Representative Don Young of Alaska and currently pending before Congress. Moreover, MAPPS strongly
supports H.R. 1382, the Digital Coast Act, introduced by Representative R.A. "Dutch" Ruppersberger of
Maryland and Rep. Young of Alaska. Enactment of H.R. 1382 and H.R. 1399 separately or as a merged bill
will go a long way toward a coordinated and comprehensive national mapping effort for coastal, state
and territorial waters of the United States and better integrate navigational and non-navigational
geospatial activities in NOAA. The Maritime Administration (MARAD) grant program for improvements
to the Marine Highway Program should include hydrographic surveying & mapping activities that
directly contribute to decisions regarding placement of ATONs on the inland waterways. These ATON's
are essential for the safe passage of goods on the marine transportation system. This grant program
should provide incentives for private sector participation, again through a P3. Increased utilization of
and partnership with the private sector geospatial community will help accelerate federally-funded

Page | 28
research, enhance navigation and transportation, and create economic growth and job creation in the
private sector. We would emphasize the need to better coordinate the geospatial activities among these
various agencies and numerous programs and applications. As the Government Accountability Office
found (Geospatial Information: OMB and Agencies Can Reduce Duplication by Making Coordination a
Priority GAO-14-226T, Dec 5, 2013) federal agencies involved in geospatial activities have failed "to
identify planned geospatial investments to promote coordination and reduce duplication". GAO also
reported agencies "had not yet fully planned for or implemented an approach to manage geospatial
data as related groups of investments to allow agencies to more effectively plan geospatial data
collection efforts and minimize duplicative investments, and its strategic plan was missing key
elements." MAPPS strongly supported a provision enacted in the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance
Reform Act of 2012 (PL 112-141) to develop a funding strategy to leverage and coordinate budgets and
expenditures, and to maintain or establish joint funding and other agreement mechanisms between
federal agencies and with units of state and local government to share in the collection and utilization of
geospatial data among all governmental users. Specifically, section 100220 (42 USC 4101c) requires the
office of Management and Budget, in consultation with several agencies to "submit to the appropriate
authorizing and appropriating committees of the Senate and the House of Representatives an
interagency budget crosscut and coordination report, certified by the Secretary or head of each such
agency, that-- (A) contains an interagency budget crosscut report that displays relevant sections of the
budget proposed for each of the Federal agencies working on flood risk determination data and digital
elevation models, including any planned interagency or intra-agency transfers; and (B) describes how
the efforts aligned with such sections complement one another." This provision provides that agencies
"work together to ensure that flood risk determination data and geospatial data are shared among
Federal agencies in order to coordinate the efforts of the Nation to reduce its vulnerability to flooding
hazards." We recommend a similar legislative provision with regard to geospatial data related to
charting, navigation, and ATON, involving the Coast Guard, NOAA, MARAD, the Corps of Engineers,
USGS, and other relevant federal agencies, as well as state and local government and the private sector.
Hydrographic survey data supports a variety of maritime functions, such as port and harbor
maintenance and dredging that facilitates the 98 percent of our international trade that moves through
U.S. ports, coastal engineering, coastal zone management, and offshore resource development. There is
an enormous capacity and capability in the private sector to provide NOAA, the Coast Guard, Corps of
Engineers and other government agencies the hydrographic surveying, charting, aerial photography,
photogrammetry, LIDAR, and other geospatial disciplines that support ATON. The private sector stands
ready to continue to assist these agencies achieve their important missions. MAPPS urges Congress to
enact legislation to accelerate and complete the transition from government or university performance
of commercially available geospatial services to contractor performance, while refocusing agencies on
inherently governmental activities, such as establishing standards, coordinating user requirements,
determining needs, and managing contracts. Federal agencies should maintain an "intellectual" core
capability in surveying and mapping, versus a large dollar of capital capability. Congressional
appropriations and authorizations should be directed toward commercial contracting for data
collection requirements, rather than capital equipment. Creating a pathway to greater utilization of the
private sector and forming public-private partnerships will result in cost savings to the tax payer,
improve the economy, enhance navigation, reduce duplication, and make programs more efficient. We
commend Congress for its leadership on ATON, hydrography and nautical charting programs. Important

Page | 29
steps have been taken, and progress has been made, but we must continue to strive to bring the full
expertise, innovation and efficiency of the private sector to all of the federal government's mapping and
charting activities. In summary, the ATON of the future can and should be smaller, lighter, more agile
and more self-sustaining than the current LNB's we know today. A new public-private partnership is the
key to such success.

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