MATH 30-5

STATISTICS and
PROBABILITY
ENGR. CHARITY HOPE A. GAYATIN

Example
2.13 (Addition Rule) A contractor is starting two new
projects jobs 1 and 2. There is some uncertainty on the
scheduled completion of each job; at the end of 1 year, the
condition of completing each of the jobs may be defined as
follows:
A = definitely completed
B = completion questionable
C = definitely incomplete
Problem
1. Describe the sample space for the states of completion of
the 2 jobs; i.e., identify all the possible situations regarding
the completion of both jobs 1 and 2 at the end of 1 year in
terms of the notations above.
2. Assuming that each state of completion of both jobs
equally likely at the end of 1 year, what is the probability
that at least 1 job will be completed at the end of 1 year?
3. Probability E that only 1 of the 2 projects will definitely
be completed at the end of 1 year.

Example
2.16 (Addition Rule) The major airline industry is
subject to labor strikes by the pilots, mechanics,
and the flight attendants or by two or more of these
labor groups. Using the following notations,
A = strike by the pilots
B = strike by the mechanics
C = strike by the flight attendants
determine the probability of a labor strike in the
major airline industry in the next 3 years. Assume
the following respective probabilities of strikes by
the 3 individual groups: P(A)=0.03, P(B)=0.05,
P(C)=0.05, and that strikes by the different labor
groups are statistically independent.

Example
2.18 (Conditional Probability) Suppose that motor
vehicles approaching a certain intersection are twice as
likely to go straight ahead than to make a right turn; and
left turn are only half as likely as right turns. As a vehicle
approaches the intersection, the possible directions may
be defined as follows with their respective probabilities:
E1=straight ahead, P(E1)=4/7
E2=turning right, P(E2)=2/7
E3=turning left, P(E3)=1/7
Problem
At the intersection, if a vehicle is definitely making a
turn a) what is the probability that it will be a right
turn? b) what is the probability that it will not turn
right?

Example
2.20 (Multiplication Rule) The foundation of a tall
building may fail because of inadequate bearing
capacity or by excessive settlement. Let B and S
represent the respective modes of foundation failure,
and assume P(B)=0.001, P(S)=0.008, and P(B|S)=0.10,
which is the conditional probability of bearing capacity
failure given that there is excessive settlement.
Problem
1. Determine the probability of failure of the
foundation.
2. Determine the probability that the building will
experience excessive settlement but without bearing
capacity failure.

Example
2.21 (Multiplication Rule) Two rivers, a and b, flow
through the neighborhood of a paper mill that is
allowed to dispose its waste into both rivers. The
dissolved oxygen, DO, level in the water downstream is
an indication of the degree of pollution of the rivers
caused by the disposed waste from the mill. Let A be the
event that river a is found to have unacceptable level of
pollution and B the event that river b is found to have
unacceptable level of pollution. Based on the records of
the respective DO levels in the two rivers tested over the
past year, it was determined that on a given day, the
likelihood of unacceptable water pollution in each of the
river is as follows: P(A)=20%, P(B)=33% and
P(AB)=10%.

Problem
1. On a given day, what is the probability that at least
one of the rivers will have an unacceptable level of
pollution.
2. If river a is tested to have an unacceptable pollution
level, what is the probability that river b will also have
unacceptable pollution level?
3. What is the probability that river a will have an
unacceptable pollution level assuming that river b has
been tested to have an unacceptable level?
4. On any given day, what is the probability that only
one of the two rivers will have an unacceptable
pollution level?