Single Moving Average

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Error MSE Single Moving Average

X(t)
F(t)
15
20
25
30
20
40
25
50 31.66667
60
40
70
50
75
60
90 68.33333
78.33333

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

X(t)
F(t)
Error
15
20
25
30
20
10
40
25
15
50 31.66667 18.33333
60
40
20
70
50
20
75
60
15
90 68.33333 21.66667
78.33333
Total
120
MSE

Error MAPE Single Moving Average

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

X(t)
F(t)
15
20
25
30
20
40
25
50 31.66667
60
40
70
50
75
60
90 68.33333
78.33333

Error

10
15
18.33333
20
20
15
21.66667
Total Abs.
PE
MAPE

Absolute
Error

10
15
18.33333
20
20
15
21.66667

Absolute
PE

33.3%
37.5%
36.7%
33.3%
28.6%
20.0%
24.1%

213.5%
21.3%

Error^2

100
225
336.1111111
400
400
225
469.4444444
2155.555556
307.9365079

Double Moving Average

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

X(t)
S'
S''
a
b
Ft
15
20
25
20
30
25
40 31.66667 25.55556 37.77778 6.111111
50
40 32.22222 47.77778 7.777778 43.88889
60
50 40.55556 59.44444 9.444444 55.55556
70
60
50
70
10 68.88889
75 68.33333 59.44444 77.22222 8.888889
80
90 78.33333 68.88889 87.77778 9.444444 86.11111
97.22222
106.6667

Error MSE Double Moving Average

t X(t)
S'
1 15
2 20
3 25
20
4 30
25
5 40 31.66667
6 50
40
7 60
50
8 70
60
9 75 68.33333
10 90 78.33333
11
12

S''

25.55556
32.22222
40.55556
50
59.44444
68.88889

37.7777778
47.7777778
59.4444444
70
77.2222228
87.7777778

6.111111111
7.777777778
9.444444444
10
8.888888889
9.444444444

Ft

Error

Error^2

43.88889
55.55556
68.88889
80
86.11111
97.22222
106.6667
Total
MSE

6.11111
4.44444
1.11111
-5
3.88888

37.34568
19.75309
1.234568
25
15.12346

10.5555

98.45679
19.69136

Error MAPE Double Moving Average

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

X(t)
S'
S''
a
b
Ft
15
20
25
20
30
25
40 31.66667 25.55556 37.77778 6.111111
50
40 32.22222 47.77778 7.777778 43.88889
60
50 40.55556 59.44444 9.444444 55.55556
70
60
50
70
10 68.88889
75 68.33333 59.44444 77.22222 8.888889
80
90 78.33333 68.88889 87.77778 9.444444 86.11111
97.22222
106.6667

Absolute
Error

Error

6.111111
4.444444
1.111111
-5
3.888889

6.111111
4.444444
1.111111
5
3.888889

Total Abs.
PE
MAPE

Single Exponential Smoothing

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

X(t)
15
20
25
30
40
50
60
70
75
90

F(t)
15
15
19.5
24
28.95
38.4
47.895
57.84
67.7895
73.284
87.77895
87.77895

X(t)
15
20
25
30
40
50
60
70
75
90

F(t)
15
15
19.5
24
28.95
38.4
47.895
57.84
67.7895
73.284
87.77895
87.77895
Total
MSE

Error
5
5.5
6
11.05
11.6
12.105
12.16
7.2105
16.716

12.2%
7.4%
1.6%
6.7%
4.3%

32.2%
6.4%

Error MSE Single Exponential Smoothing

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Abosolute
PE

Error^2
25
30.25
36
122.1025
134.56
146.531
147.8656
51.99131
279.4247

87.3415 973.7251
108.1917

Error MAPE Single Eksponential Smoothing

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

X(t)
15
20
25
30
40
50
60
70
75
90

F(t)
15
15
19.5
24
28.95
38.4
47.895
57.84
67.7895
73.284
87.77895
87.77895

Error

Absolute
Error

5
5.5
6
11.05
11.6
12.105
12.16
7.2105
16.716

Absolute
PE

5
5.5
6
11.05
11.6
12.105
12.16
7.2105
16.716

25.00%
22.00%
20.00%
27.63%
23.20%
20.18%
17.37%
9.61%
18.57%

Total Abs.
PE
MAPE

183.56%
20.40%

Double Eksponential Smoothing

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

X(t)
15
20
25
30
40
50
60
70
75
90

S'
15
19.5
24.45
29.445
38.9445
48.89445
58.88945
68.88894
74.38889
88.43889

S''

Ft

15
19.05
19.95
4.05
23.91
24.99
4.86
24
28.8915 29.9985
4.9815
29.85
37.9392 39.9498
9.0477
34.98
47.79893 49.98998 9.859725
48.9975
57.78039 59.9985 9.981468
59.8497
67.77809 69.9998 9.997696 69.97997
73.72781 75.04997 5.949725
79.9975
86.96778
89.91 13.23997
80.9997
103.15
116.3899

Error MSE Double Eksponential Smooting

T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

X(t)
15
20
25
30
40
50
60
70
75
90

S'

S''

15
19.5
24.45
29.445
38.9445
48.89445
58.88945
68.88894
74.38889
88.43889

Ramalan

Error

15
19.05
19.95
4.05
23.91
24.99
4.86
24
1
28.8915 29.9985
4.9815
29.85
0.15
37.9392 39.9498
9.0477
34.98
5.02
47.79893 49.98998
9.859725
48.9975
1.0025
57.78039 59.9985
9.981468
59.8497
0.1503
67.77809 69.9998
9.99769635
69.979965 0.020035
73.72781 75.04997
5.94972459
79.997496
-4.9975
86.96778
89.91 13.23996795 80.99969955
9.0003
Total
11.34564
MSE

Error^2

1
0.0225
25.2004
1.005006
0.02259
0.000401
24.97497
81.00541
133.2313
16.65391

Error MAPE Double Eksponential Smoothing

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

X(t)
15
20
25
30
40
50
60
70
75
90

S'
15
19.5
24.45
29.445
38.9445
48.89445
58.88945
68.88894
74.38889
88.43889

S''

a
b
Ramalan
Error
15
19.05
19.95
4.05
23.91
24.99
4.86
24
1
28.8915
29.9985
4.9815
29.85
0.15
37.9392
39.9498
9.0477
34.98
5.02
47.79893 49.98998 9.859725
48.9975
1.0025
57.78039
59.9985 9.981468
59.8497
0.1503
67.77809
69.9998 9.997696 69.97997 0.020035
73.72781 75.04997 5.949725
79.9975
-4.9975
86.96778
89.91 13.23997
80.9997
9.0003

Absolute
Error

1
0.15
5.02
1.0025
0.1503
0.020035
4.9975
9.0003
Total Abs.
PE
MAPE

Absolute
PE

4.0%
0.5%
12.6%
2.0%
0.3%
0.0%
6.7%
10.0%
36.0%
4.5%