Agora

financial

November 2014

MAYERS SPECIAL SITUATIONS

The Wild Ass of the Desert

Invest in His $3 Seed Company That Could Pay off 5-Fold!

INSIDE THIS ISSUE
A Backdoor to Mexicos
Golden Belt
Bet $2 and Turn It Into $12
Portfolio Review
Four Sell Recommendations

Chris Mayer
Editor

He seemed to be able to grow anything anywhere. Miracle is a word people used

to describe his lush fields of tomatoes, lettuce, onions and garbanzo beans:
People say Im crazy. Vegetables in the lake bottom? But J.G. has given me
room to experiment. Wherever Ive gone in this company, Ive made money.
In 1989, they sent me to the Homeland district, our toughest ground, and
I said, Welcome to hell. I not only made money, but I turned it into the
highest-yielding ranch in the whole company. Three bales an acre. I slammed
it. We call it Gods country today. Ive never lost money in my 21 years with
Boswell. Last year, with half this ranch underwater, I still didnt lose money.
His name is Mark Grewal. And for a long time, he was the best farmer in J.G.
Boswells agricultural empire in California.
Today, he is in charge of his own company, as well as being a significant shareholder.
It is a little $3 per share seed company that could be worth five times the price.
Grewal himself has been a buyer in the last 24 months, at prices from $58. And the
other big shareholder also bought in at prices of almost $7. But October woes in the
market flattened the stock of Grewals seed company though I dont think it will stay
here for long. Grewals already implemented a share buyback. And the business is doing
well. Sales were up 40% last year, and there is more growth ahead.
Im recommending we invest with Grewal, the former J.G. Boswell farmhand who
worked miracles in the desert. In fact, it was J.G. Boswell II, who tagged Grewal with
the nickname The Wild Ass of the Desert.
Boswell liked to tease Grewal about his roots, as if he were some kind of Arab. But
Grewals father was actually from the Punjab in India. Tejinder Grewal was a Sikh who
came to the U.S. in 1951 wearing a turban and a sheath with a two-foot-long sword.
His son, Mark Grewal, though, grew up in Southern California. Looking at him, you
see no connections to his familys past. Grewal wears blue jeans, Wolverine boots and
a golf shirt most days. These biographical details and quotes, by the way, come from a
terrific book called The King of California: J.G. Boswell and the Making of a Secret American
Empire by Mark Arax and Rick Wartzman, published in 2005. Its a good read if you
are into to these sorts of business stories.
Reading the sections on Grewal, you come away with the impression of a guy willing
to try anything. Faced with an array of doubters, he was not afraid to experiment. He
took fields that had only grown fluffy white Acala cotton and planted creamier Egyptian Pima at a time when there wasnt even a futures market for Pima and it made

Issue 101

w w w. ag or a fi n a nci a l .com

Mayers Special Situations

up less than 2% of U.S. cotton. But it paid off. Grewal is a

guy who lives and breathes farming. He has a passion for
it. And hes darn good at it:
People laughed at me when I came here and started
talking about converting to Pima and planting
vegetables. It wont happen, Grewal. Even J.G.
thought I was crazy. Well, were going to be the
largest tomato grower in the state next year. And
look at those onions. Primo. It doesnt get any
better than that.
And nobody in the world touches us on seed alfalfa.
Nobody. Take a look at those alfalfa bales right there.
There must be 500 of them lined up in that field.
We averaged 1,000 pounds of alfalfa seed per acre.
Unheard-of. Thats a net of $13 million on the seed
alone. We slammed it.
This is all history from the book. But this history bears
on the present. Especially that last part. Alfalfa seed.
Today, Grewal is the president and CEO of S&W Seed
(SANW:nasdaq). It describes itself as a leading producer of warm-climate, high-yield alfalfa seed varieties,
including varieties that can thrive in poor, saline soils.
The company also cleans and processes seed for others.
It owns a facility in Five Points, California, built in the late
1980s. It sits on a property of 40 acres, with 35 of them held
for future development. The seed facility operates at less than
25% of capacity to process more from San Joaquin Valley
growers. In addition to alfalfa, S&W can handle wheat and
small grains.
S&W went public in 2010 for about $4 per share. It had
greater ambitions about what it could do. Following the
IPO, S&W expanded the acreage dedicated to alfalfa seed
production. It both bought and leased farmland, mostly
in the Central and Imperial valleys of California.
S&W also pursued a number of other initiatives. It teamed
up with Forage Genetics and Monsanto to develop new alfalfa seeds. It developed stevia varieties, as the zero-calorie
sweetener has great demand.

Alfalfa Speak
Alfalfa is indigenous in the Middle East, where it grows yearround. It is nondormant. However, varieties of alfalfa grow in cold
climates by going dormant when it gets cold. The industry ranks
dormancy using a scale from 1 to 10. The lower numbers are
dormant, the higher are nondormant. The number usually reflects
the number of cuttings a farmer can get out of it each year. S&W
focuses on the nondormant market, best suited for dry climates.
But it has a development pipeline including other varieties.
Alfalfa seed production is not easy. It is a demanding process.
You have to stress the plants just so to get the most flowers
and seed. At the same time, you have to get rid of weeds so
you can pass certain purity tests. Then there are the bugs.
There are always bugs lygus bugs, especially. You have to
get rid of them without harming the bees you need for pollination. After you get all that right, you have to desiccate the
fields. This removes much of the moisture. You must harvest
quickly thereafter.
Thats why there are professionals who focus on nothing but
producing the best seed. And thats why those who produce
that best seed make good money. S&W contracts out seed
production for most of its seed and also grows its own.

S&W also acquired another seed company, Seed Genetics

Australia, in April of last year. That combination created the
worlds largest nondormant alfalfa seed company. And it gave
S&W the competitive advantage of year-round production.
There is plenty of room to grow. The primary demand for
alfalfa is to make alfalfa hay for dairy cows and beef cattle.
Alfalfa is high in protein and one of the most planted crops
in the U.S. and the world. S&W meets an important demand
in warm climates, particularly those with poor, salty soils.
Also, alfalfa itself is not water intensive.
In a cover feature of Seed Today, Grewal explained:
S&W is already a leader in breeding and developing
proprietary alfalfa seed varieties that grow in warm
climates and which can thrive on poor, saline soils.
In those areas, alfalfa touches everything. First the
hay. Without hay, there can be no livestock. There is
extreme pressure for hay. We have the varieties that
perform well in these markets.
S&W sells seed mostly to those parts of the world with hot,

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Mayers Special Situations

arid climates. These include the Middle East and North

Africa. S&W also sells seed to farmers in the Western U.S.,
Mexico and South America. The company sees China and
India as big potential growth opportunities.
Seed Today notes:
The adaptive qualities of S&W Seed Co.s salt-tolerant varieties have opened warm-season markets
where centuries of farming have resulted in high
levels of salt accumulation in the soil. Without
salt-tolerant crops, vast areas are no longer suited
for crop production.
So you can see how important the product is. And there are
many competitors. S&W competes not only on the quality
of its product but on its track record and the personal relationships Grewal and his team have with growers.
For all that, S&W is still a small company. Through June
30, sales were $52 million. One risk here is that S&W relies
on a small group of customers for much of its sales. For example, Sorouh Agricultural, which serves the Saudi Arabian
market, made up 24% of sales in 2014.
As it grows, S&Ws customer list should diversify. But it
will take time. Since going public in 2010, S&W sales are
up almost eight-fold, as the chart below shows. Adjusted
EBITDA, which is a broad measure of earnings power, is
up as well.
S&W: Growing Like A
Revenues (Period ending June 30)
$60
$52

($ in millions)

$50
$37.3

$40
$30
$20
$10

$14.2
$6.7

$3.6

$0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Adjusted EBITDA (period ending June 30)

$2,500

$2,240.4

($ in thousands)

$2,000
$1,500
$1,055.0
$1,000

$612.3

$0
($500)
($,1000)
($1,139.4)
2010

2011

2012

2013

As is, the stock trades below book value of $4.44 per share.
Thats based on 11.6 million shares outstanding. There are
1.5 million warrants, but the strike price on those is $13.75.
They are so far out of the money it seems absurd to include
them. If you did, book value per share would still be almost
$4 per share. The stock is $3.
Farming is, of course, volatile. There are all kinds of variables
that go into the demand and pricing for seed. There are many
other risks beyond the companys control, such as the weather.
In any particular quarter, you could see wide variations
in results. On the last conference call, Grewal conservatively
called for 10% organic growth in 2015. That would put sales
at closer to $60 million. And that includes no potential
acquisitions or new initiatives.
Quarter to quarter, I have no idea what may happen. But
I know that seed companies are valuable properties. One
way to see this is to look at transactions in which acquirers
bought seed companies whole. I looked at a June report by
Piper Jaffray that reviewed dozens of transactions going back
to 2008 on an EV-to-sales basis.
EV stands for enterprise value. It is the market value of
the stock minus cash plus debt. It is the price the market
puts on acquiring the whole company. (Think housing.
You dont sell your house based on the equity. The value
of the mortgage plus the equity equals the price.) S&Ws
EV is about $40 million. Thats less than 1 times its 2014
sales of $52 million.
So the question is how to get a sense for what a DuPont, a
Land OLakes, a Monsanto or a Dow AgroSciences might
pay for S&W Seed? The Piper
Jaffray report found that seed
Mean
5.9x
companies go for about 5
Median
4.7x
times sales. Here are the stats:
As I mentioned, S&W Seed sells for less than 1 times sales.
Even a multiple of just 3 means S&W more than triples. Im
not saying S&W will get bought out tomorrow. But it is a
clear bargain in an overpriced market. Its in a business with a
clear story to tell investors, and it has motivated insiders.

$1,199.5

$500

($1,500)

The stock is cheap, too. It took a dive in September and

October. This had real effects. as it caused S&W to back
out of an acquisition that required S&W to issue stock. But
Grewal and his team werent going to issue stock at $3. So
they called the deal off. They have bought stock themselves
at prices of $58. So they are not going to give it away at
these prices. Soon after the stock hit $3 and change, S&W
announced a $2 million stock buyback.

TTM Mar 14

The insiders own 20% of the stock. Theyve been buyers

on the open market. They have every incentive to make
3

Mayers Special Situations

this to work, and a track record, too. Id bet the Wild Ass
of the Desert will find a way and S&W will be a big winner
in 2015 and beyond.
I think its speculative, so buy accordingly.
Recommendation: Buy S&W Seed (SANW:nasdaq) up
to $5 per share.

A Backdoor to Mexicos Golden Belt

It was originally an American who struck oil near the
port town of Tampico, Mexico.
Wisconsin-born Edward Doheny was an oil tycoon who
drilled a successful well in Los Angeles in 1892. It set off an
oil boom, and Doheny sold out in 1902, making a fortune.
He then headed to Mexico, where his company hit a gusher
in 1916 near Tampico. The oil shot up nearly 600 feet in
the air, raining over a two-mile radius. It could be heard 16
miles away. It became the largest oil well in the world and
put Mexico in the front rank of oil producers.
That was a long time ago. The Mexican government eventually nationalized oil, and a long period of decline set in.
But thats been reversed after seven decades.
Private companies are again at work in Mexico. This is very
exciting because Mexico is practically virginal territory. With
a sweep of its regulatory hand, Mexico gave birth to another
oil boom.
From The Wall Street Journal, on Nov. 5:
A boom is coming, Joel Vzquez, the head of
Mexican-Canadian drilling company DCM, said
at his downtown office here. Not a week goes
by without an oil company contacting us asking
about making a joint venture or saying theyre
interested in investing here.
In the coming weeks, Mexicos government plans to
unveil terms for the first auctions of oil exploration
blocks under the new energy law. Bidding, set for
next year, is expected to attract heavy interest from
big and small companies alike. Of the 169 blocks
up for grabs, 47 lie within 70 miles of Tampico.
Pacific Rubiales, the big Colombian producer, set aside
$1 billion to invest in Mexico. A Mexican startup called
Sierra Oil & Gas raised $500 million to spend on drilling.
But I want to draw your attention to DCM, mentioned in
the WSJ quote.
DCM is a joint venture between Mexicos Grupo Diavaz
and. CanElson Drilling (CDI:tsx; CDLRF:otcbb)!
4

Here I will provide an extended excerpt from the WSJ on

the JV:
[The JV] is in charge of drilling the bano oil
field, an area of green woodlands encircled by
swamps. The field, 40 miles west of Tampico, is
where Mexicos first oil well was drilled in 1901
by Mexican Petroleum Corp. founder Edward
Doheny
DCMs Mr. Vzquez predicted that oil output at
bano would increase over the next five years, to
about 40,000 barrels a day, from 11,000 now.
Mexican contractors such as DCM eventually
could bid for small blocks. We will be able to
work as service contractors for big private oil
firms and at the same time be their competitors,
Mr. Vzquez said.
At the bano field recently, DCM engineer Alejandro Carrasco stopped his pickup truck on a dirt
road and pointed at the two drilling rigs piercing
the horizon. The idea is to turn this into a sea of
drilling towers, he said.
No wonder when this story broke that CanElsons stock
rose almost 8%.
Mexicos Golden Belt is Full of Oil

Mayers Special Situations

The oil and gas sector has been nasty, as I am sure you
know. The market has not spared CanElsons stock. Its
40% off its highs as the market chopped about a quarter
off the price of oil. Bearishness on the price has set in.
I have no idea where oil will go. But I think CanElson is in
great position to profit from the budding Mexican oil boom.
And the market sell-off in oil-related stocks has created an
opportunity to get shares at a good price. On a free cash
flow basis, CanElson is a bargain compared with its Western Canadian peers. See the chart below.

Bet $2 and Turn It Into $12

The urge to bet $2 to win on a long shot is a recurrent
thing, money manager Martin Sosnoff once wrote, and
you give in, sometimes.
I have here one of those bets. It is complex, though. To
quote from The Dude in The Big Lebowksi, this is a complicated case. You know, a lotta ins, a lotta outs, a lotta
what-have-yous. And uh, a lotta strands to keep in my
head, man.
I will simplify it greatly, because the essence of the thing
is clear. It is an idea that has attracted a few big-name
investors: Bruce Berkowitz at Fairholme, Carl Icahn and
Bill Ackman at Pershing Square.

CanElson: A Better Value Than Peers

25%
Canadian Peer High-Low Range
Canadian Peer Median

Free Cash Flow Yield (%)

20%

CanElson

I heard Ackman talk briefly about it at Grants conference. I had long ignored the drama around this idea,
but his comments piqued my interest again.

15%

10%

5%

Quarter

Yet CanElson consistently outperforms the industry on a

number of metrics, such as return on equity. It also has a
better balance sheet with low debt. And insiders own 7%
of the stock, and they are really good operators. On top of
all, CanElson pays a 6 cent quarterly dividend. As I write,
the stock is C$5.61 for a yield of 4.3%.
Youre supposed to buy when things are tough. Anything
oil and gas right now is a scary buy, I admit. But there are
smart bets to make with proven operators in companies
with good balance sheets. CanElson fits. If the price of oil
and gas continues to go lower, CanElson wont be immune.
It will survive the downturn, however. And youll get some
yield while you wait.
Besides, there is that boom in Mexico, which may prove a big
opportunity for CanElsons JV down there. There are billons
of dollars headed there for drilling. If CanElsons JV gets just
a fraction of that, it will make a big impact on the stock.
Ill end with another quote from Vzquez, opining on the
opportunity in the Golden Belt.
Its not easy to operate here, he said. But theres one thing
that will persuade all of us: money. You can make a lot of
money here.
Im raising CanElson Drilling (CDI:tsx; CDLRF:otcbb)
back to a buy up to C$6 per share.

Q2/14

Q1/14

Q4/13

Q3/13

Q2/13

Q1/13

Q4/12

Q3/12

Q2/12

Q1/12

Q4/11

Q3/11

Q2/11

Q1/11

Q4/10

0%

The idea is to buy shares in the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and/or the Federal Home Loan
Mortgage Corp. (FMCC). You know them as Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac. (I can hear you screaming in horror.)
These government-sponsored enterprises (or GSEs)
provide guarantees on trillions of dollars of mortgages.

Its like insurance. The GSEs get money upfront in exchange

for a promise to pay on any credit losses. Its a simple business
that does not rely on fancy derivatives. And historically, this
was a super-profitable business for a long time.
But the housing collapse in 2008 sunk it. The GSEs have
been in conservatorship since September 2008. They reported
large losses in 2009, 2010 and 2011. However, a large part of
those losses came from unconventional and subprime mortgages. These markets have essentially disappeared.
Today, the GSEs are once again minting money. One big
reason is that credit losses have receded. Another big reason
is that the guarantee fee the GSEs earn is now higher. It used
to collect about 20 basis points (or 0.2%) off every mortgage.
This is like an insurance premium. And it was not adequate
to cover the losses. Today, Fannie gets 60 basis points.
Thats a tripling of the price of its product. Mandated by the
government, I should add. So the average fee it earns on its
portfolio has climbed to 39 basis points. In summary: Revenues way up. Losses way down. Profits are fat again.
However, the GSEs have been in this penalty box where
they pay 100% of their earnings to the U.S. Treasury. But
the government owns about 80% of the stocks. Thus, a
legal opportunity emerges.
Ackman et al. contend and have sued in federal court
5

Mayers Special Situations

that this is illegal taking without just compensation, in

violation of the Fifth Amendment. The GSEs have paid back
the cash that the Treasury put in and then some. It seems
logical, then, that it is time for shareholders to get something.
Now, I remember Ackman talking about this idea in May.
He presented a 110-page presentation making his case. You
can find it for free online, Its Time to Get off Our Fannie.
You can peruse that if you wish. You will learn more about
the history of the GSEs than you ever wished. Youll see the
innards of American mortgage finance. You will also come
away with an appreciation for the awesome earnings power
of the GSEs.
Ackman shows, convincingly, that at the current level
of g-fees, the GSEs guarantee business could have been
profitable while absorbing the same level of actual credit
losses they incurred in the guarantee business during the
financial crisis. Thats a shocking statement to many.
But at the current g-fee of 60 basis points, the GSEs earn
$17 billion in profits. Ackman shows that at just 14 times
earnings, the GSEs would be worth six times what they
trade for today. See the chart below:
Heads You Win a Lot
60 bps G-fee
Net Income

$17 bn

Less: Junior Preferred Stock Dividends

(2)

Net Income to Common

$15

P/E
Illustrative Future Value

14.0x
$206 bn

Diluted Shares (bn)

9.0

Illustrative Future Value of the GSEs per Share

$23

Multiple of Current Share Price

Future Value of Treasure Warrants

6x
$165 bn

Ive just reproduced his chart here. The upside is greater

today because when he did his presentation, the stocks of
FNMA and FMCC were trading for $4 each. Today, they
are just above $2 per share.
And here we get to what happens if the legal coin flip
comes up tails. In other words, what happens if Ackman
and the gang lose their lawsuit? I have no idea. If you can
handicap this complex lawsuit and how long it will take,
you are smarter than I. To me, it seems obvious that the
shareholders should get something. But laws bend as the
powers wish them to bend.
6

Thats why I look at this as a binary bet. If you win, youre

going to win big. If you lose, youre going to lose everything.
As Sosnoff wrote, the urge to bet $2 on a long shot is recurring thing. I leave it for you decide whether you should give
in or not. Heh.

Portfolio Review
Four Sell Recommendations
Every year around this time, I look to trim names from my
list. It is a painful but necessary weeding process. It really
forces me to think about every name in the portfolio. I try
to keep the list focused on what I think are the best ideas.
What are the best ideas? The best ideas are the ones that
combine the most upside with the least downside risk and
pay off in the shortest amount of time. I look at all three
elements. People often forget the third, which is important
in producing a high annual return on your portfolio.
Each of the four stocks Im parting with here is a stock
that I still like. I know that sounds weird. But remember,
the idea is to focus on the very best. You may choose to
continue holding these names if you want. Ill give you
some guidance.
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF:pink sheets): I have
to face it. My thesis is not working here so far. The stock
is down 60% since I made it an official recommendation
in April 2012. Every time I talk about it, the stock just
goes lower.
I love the Mongolia story. I really like Harris Kupperman
and his team. My original thesis was to hold it for 10 years
and let it play out. I think that will probably still prove
right. But its a long haul. I see more certain and quicker
turns in our other names.
So Im throwing in the towel, probably at the bottom. There
is no rush to sell this one. In fact, if you have more patience
than I, you should wait it out. Down 60%, though, is enough
for me.
Dolphin Capital (DCI:lse): This one is in the same
boat as MGG. It is another property company in a tough
market, Greece. I like the story here. We have a strong
ownership group with a lot of stock and a deep discount
to net asset value.
As with MGG, the payoff will take place over several years.
And were down 30% already. Again, when I compare it
with what else we own, Id rather own those other things.
If you are more patient than I am, this is one you may
decide to let ride.

Mayers Special Situations

Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings (BCRH:nyse): This

is a very good vehicle to get yield. It pays out 90% of its
earnings to you in dividends, with a large fourth distribution. If it earns $1.80 this year, that would be $1.62 in
dividends, for a yield of 9%.
But it will never trade for more than book, which is about
$20 per share. Based on the limited upside, Im going to
let it go. If you want income and dont care about capital
appreciation, you may want to hold it.
Chambers Street Properties (CSG:nyse): Another solid
yield play, even safer than BCRH. If you followed my recommendation and didnt pay more than $8 per share, you
enjoy a 6%-plus yield on your money.
As with BCRH, though, the upside is slender beyond the
yield. Ill continue to write about good income ideas in the
future, but Im not going to make them official recommendations anymore unless they come with strong upside.
(Think NRF.)

Recommendations: Sell Mongolia Growth Group

(MNGGF:pink sheets), Dolphin Capital (DCI:lse),
Blue Capital Re (BCRH:nyse) and Chambers Street
(CSG:nyse).
I know these cuts are painful, and I may have nixed a
favorite of yours. All I can say is that if I didnt wield the
unsentimental scalpel every year, the portfolio would easily run to 50 or 60 names after a few years. (I exclude the
Thrift Conversions Portfolio from this annual stress test.
It is its own thing. There are nine positions there.)
Excluding the thrift conversions, I now count 19 names.
Thats a pretty lean and mean portfolio. Weve bought good
value loaded with potentially explosive upside.
Im looking forward to 2015!
Thanks for reading.
Sincerely,

So those are four names Ill no longer cover officially on

the back page.
Chris Mayer

Mayers Special Situations Recommendations

Prices as of 11/7/14

COMPANY

DATE RECD

RECD PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

COMMENTS

RECOMMENDATION

7/15/11
7/15/11
12/21/12
12/21/12
12/21/12
3/14/13
7/11/13
4/14/14
7/28/14

$10.47
$11.64
$15.19
$10.65
$13.25
$11.47
$10.45
$11.46
$12.19

$14.00
$16.84
$19.07
$11.16
$15.54
$14.11
$11.14
$12.84
$13.57

Connecticut thrift
Illinois thrift
Nebraska thrift
Pennsylvania thrift
North Carolina thrift
New Jersey thrift
Georgia thrift
New Jersey thrift
Massachusetts thrift

12/6/10
6/30/14
9/12/14

$23.55
$9.67
$32.25

$74.36
$19.40
$28.00

Spinoff from Cablevision

Spinoff from Northstar Rlty
Spinoff from Rayonier

Hold*
Hold
Buy up to $36

AGT Food (AGT:tsx)(AGXXF.PK)

6/10/11
Pulse Seismic Data (PSD:tsx)(PLSDF.PK)
3/9/12
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF.PK)
4/2/12
CanElson Drilling (CDI:tsx)(CDLRF.PK)
4/12/12
Atlas Financial Holdings (AFH:nasdaq)
4/10/13
Hallmark Financial (HALL:nasdaq)
6/17/13
General Finance (GFN:nasdaq)
9/20/13
Resource America (REXI:nasdaq)
10/14/13
Dolphin Capital (DCI:lon)(DOLHF)
12/23/13
Cherry Hill Mortgage Inv. (CHMI:nyse)
3/10/14
Tropicana Entertainment (TPCA:otc)
3/10/14
J.G. Wentworth (JGW:nyse)
5/12/14
1347 Property Insurance Holdings (PIH:Nasdaq) 6/9/14
Jason Industries (JASN:nasdaq)
7/16/14
Par Petroleum (PARR:nyse)
8/08/14
Gaiam (GAIA:nasdaq)
10/14/14
S&W Seed (SANW:nasdaq)
NEW

C$24.75
C$1.89
$4.18
C$4.37
$6.32
$9.19
$5.08
$8.99
39.50p
$18.11
$18.19
$12.92
$7.70
$10.48
$17.42
$7.02
NEW

C$26.82
C$3.09
$1.45
C$5.66
$14.25
$11.25
$8.40
$8.88
28.25p
$18.71
$16.25
$11.43
$7.75
$8.72
$15.65
$7.41
$3.07

Insiders own ~35%

Insiders own ~ 19%
Insiders own ~33%
Insiders own ~ 7%
Insiders own ~10%
Insiders own ~ 44%
Insiders own ~ 26%
Insiders own ~ 27%
Insiders own ~ 34%
Middleman own ~13%
Icahn (thru IEP) owns 68%
Insiders own ~36%
Insiders own ~39%
Insiders own ~ 30%
Insiders own ~56%
Insiders own ~ 40%
Insiders own ~ 20%

Buy up $25
Buy up to C$3.70
Sell
Buy up to C$6
Buy up to $14
Buy up to $10.50
Buy up to $8
Buy up to $10
Sell
Buy up to $20
Buy up to $20
Buy up to $18
Buy up to $9
Buy up to $11.50
Buy up to $21
Buy up to $8.50
Buy up to $5

$25.17
$9.67
$18.51
$7.93

$32.51
$18.25
$17.27
$8.15

Thrift Conversions
United Financial Bancorp (UBNK:nasdaq)**
IF Bancorp (IROQ:nasdaq)
Madison Country Bank (MCBK:nasdaq)
Malvern Federal Bancorp (MLVF:nasdaq)
HomeTrust Bancshares (HTBI:nasdaq)
Northfield Bancorp (NFBK:nasdaq)
Charter Financial Corp (CHFN:nasdaq)
Clifton Savings Bank (CSBK:nasdaq)
Blue Hills Bancorp (BHBK:nasdaq)

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy up to $16
Buy up to $12
Buy up to $11
Buy up to $12
Buy up to $12.50

Spinoffs
Madison Square Garden (MSG:nasdaq)
Northstar Asset Management (NSAM:nyse)
Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM:nyse)

Owner-Operators

Classic Values
EMC Insurance Group (EMCI:nasdaq)
NorthStar Realty (NRF:nyse)
Blue Capital (BCRH:nyse)
Chambers Street Properties (CSG:nyse)

1/14/13
7/11/13
11/6/13
5/12/14

Sold via 10/24 alert

Spun off NSAM
Pure-play on catastrophe
Amazons landlord

Sell
Hold
Sell
Sell

*Sold half of Madison Square Garden for a 111% gain.

**Formerly Rockville Financial