West Visayas State University

Calinog Campus
Calinog, Iloilo
Stat 203 Probability and Statistics
I. Inferential Statistics
Definition:
Techniques that allow us to study samples and then make generalizations about the population.
Inferential statistics are a very crucial part of scientific research in that these techniques are
used to test hypotheses
Uses for Inferential Statistics
Statistics for determining differences between experimental and control groups in experimental
research
Statistics used in descriptive research when comparisons are made between different groups
These statistics enable the researcher to evaluate the effects of an independent variable on a
dependent variable
II. Hypothesis Testing
The purpose of the statistical test is to evaluate the null hypothesis (H0) at a specified level of
significance (e.g., p < .05)
In other words, do the treatment effects differ significantly so that these differences
would be attributable to chance occurrence less than 5 times in 100?
Hypothesis Testing Procedures

State the hypothesis (H0)

Select the probability level (alpha)
Determine the value needed for significance
Calculate the test statistic
Accept or reject H0

III. Parametric Statistics

Techniques which require basic assumptions about the data, for example:
normality of distribution
homogeneity of variance
requirement of interval or ratio data
Most prevalent in HHP
Many statistical techniques are considered robust to violations of the assumptions,
meaning that the outcome of the statistical test should still be considered valid
IV. Hypothesis Testing Errors
Hypothesis testing decisions are made without direct knowledge of the true circumstance in the
population. As a result, the researchers decision may or may not be correct
Type I Error
. . . is made when the researcher rejects the null hypothesis when in fact the null
hypothesis is true
probability of committing Type I error is equal to the significance (alpha) level set by the
researcher
thus, the smaller the alpha level the lower the chance of committing a Type I error
Type II Error
. . . occurs when the researcher accepts the null hypothesis, when in fact it should have
been rejected
probability is equal to beta (B) which is influenced by several factors

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Calinog Campus
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inversely related to alpha level
increasing sample size will reduce B
Statistical Power the probability of rejecting a false null hypothesis
Power = 1 beta
Decreasing probability of making a Type II error increases statistical power
Hypothesis Truth Table

Different Non-Parametric Test

t-tests
Characteristics of t-tests
requires interval or ratio level scores
used to compare two mean scores
easy to compute
pretty good small sample statistic
Types of t-test
One-Group t-test
t-test between a sample and population mean
Independent Groups t-test
compares mean scores on two independent samples
Dependent Groups (Correlated) t-test
compares two mean scores from a repeated measures or matched pairs design
most common situation is for comparison of pretest with posttest scores from the same
sample
ANOVA - Analysis of Variance
A commonly used family of statistical tests that may be considered a logical extension of the ttest
requires interval or ratio level scores
used for comparing 2 or more mean scores
maintains designated alpha level as compared to experimentwise inflation of alpha level
with multiple t-tests
may also test more than 1 independent variable as well as interaction effect
One-way ANOVA
Extension of independent groups t-test, but may be used for evaluating differences among 2 or
more groups
Assumptions of Statistical Tests
Parametric tests are based on a variety of assumptions, such as
Interval or ratio level scores
Random sampling of participants
Scores are normally distributed
N = 30 considered minimum by some
Homogeneity of variance
Groups are independent of each other
Others

West Visayas State University

Calinog Campus
Calinog, Iloilo
Researchers should try to satisfy assumptions underlying the statistical test being used
V. Nonparametric Statistics
Considered assumption free statistics
Appropriate for nominal and ordinal data or in situations where very small sample sizes
(n < 10) would probably not yield a normal distribution of scores
Less statistical power than parametric statistics
Chi Square
A nonparametric test used with nominally scaled data which are common with survey research
The statistic is used when the researcher is interested in the number of responses,
objects, or people that fall in two or more categories
Single Sample Chi-Square
a.k.a one-way chi-square or goodness of fit chi-square
Used to test the hypothesis that the collected data (observed scores) fits an expected
distribution
i.e. are the observed frequencies and expected frequencies for a questionnaire item in
agreement with each other?
Independent Groups Chi-Square
a.k.a. two-way chi-square or contingency table chi-square
Used to test if there is a significant relationship (association) between two nominally scaled
variables
In this test we are comparing two or more patterns of frequencies to see if they are
independent from each other
Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test
The test process is based on:
o The number of signs (positive and negative)
o The ranks of the differences of paired values.
Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
This is used for data consisting of independent samples that are not paired.
The requirements for this test are:
o Samples are independent (that is taken from two different populations)
o Each of two samples has a size greater than 10, that is,
. (for samples with sizes
10 or smaller, special tables will have to be used.
Kruskal-Wallis Test (or the H-test)
This test is the corresponding non parametric test of ANOVA where the data of three or more
samples are being tested.
The requirements for this test are:
o There are three or more samples
o Each sample has at least 5 observations
o The test assumes that the variances (or standard deviations) of the populations from
which the samples are taken equal (or about the same), otherwise the test cannot be
used.
VI. Probability
Definition:
Probability is the likehood of the occurrence of any particular form of an event.
Example:
If a coin is tossed once, one of two events will occur the coin will turn up either head or tail.
The probability of head turning up is P(H)= and probability of tail turning up is P(T) =
or P(not H) = 1 - .

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Calinog Campus
Calinog, Iloilo

Range of Values of Probabilities

( )
This is read as:

P(A) is greater than or equal to zero but less than or equal to 1.

The probability of the event A ranges from 0 to 1

In general:

Probability of an event happening =

Number of ways it can happen

Total number of outcomes

Example: the chances of rolling a "4" with a die

Number of ways it can happen: 1 (there is only 1 face with a "4" on it)
Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6 faces altogether)
So the probability =

6
Example: there are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are blue, and 1 is red. What is the probability that a blue marble
gets picked?
Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4 blues)
Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5 marbles in total)
So the probability =

4
5

= 0.8

Probability Line
We can show probability on a Probability Line:

Probability is always between 0 and 1

Probability is Just a Guide
Probability does not tell us exactly what will happen, it is just a guide
Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will come up?

West Visayas State University

Calinog Campus
Calinog, Iloilo
Probability says that heads have a chance, so we can expect 50 Heads.
But when we actually try it we might get 48 heads, or 55 heads ... or anything really, but in most cases it
will be a number near 50.
Some words have special meaning in Probability:
Experiment or Trial: an action where the result is uncertain.
Tossing a coin, throwing dice, seeing what pizza people choose are all examples of experiments.
Sample Space: all the possible outcomes of an experiment
Example: choosing a card from a deck
There are 52 cards in a deck (not including Jokers)
So the Sample Space is all 52 possible cards: {Ace of Hearts, 2 of Hearts, etc... }

The Sample Space is made up of Sample Points:

Sample Point: just one of the possible outcomes
Example: Deck of Cards

the 5 of Clubs is a sample point

the King of Hearts is a sample point

"King" is not a sample point. As there are 4 Kings that is 4 different sample points.
Event: a single result of an experiment
Example Events:

Getting a Tail when tossing a coin is an event

Rolling a "5" is an event.

An event can include one or more possible outcomes:

Choosing a "King" from a deck of cards (any of the 4 Kings) is an event

Rolling an "even number" (2, 4 or 6) is also an event

Probability Example:
1. An urn contains 6 non defective and 4 defective chips. The probability of drawing a defective
chip is 4/10 and the probability of drawing a non-defective chips is 1 - 4/10 = 6/10.
Addition of Probabilities
Example:
1. The probability of having a 2 in a single toss of a die is 1/6. The probability of having a 6 in a
single toss of a die is also 1/6. The probability of having either 2 or 6 if
The Addition Rule
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability of having A or B is
(
)
( )
( )

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Calinog Campus
Calinog, Iloilo

If events A and B are non-mutually exclusive, then the probability of having either A or B is
(
)
( )
( )
(
)
Example:
1. In a certain hospital, 5 infants are fed with infant formula A, 4 infants are fed with infant formula
B and 3 infants are fed with infant formula C. If one infant is selected at random, what is the
probability he/she was fed with infant formula A or B?
(
)
( )
( )

2. Of 10 medicines recommended for cough 6 were found to be effective, 4 were found to be

expensive, and 2 were found to be effective and effective. Find the probability that one
medicine chosen at random is either effective or expensive.
(
)
( )
( )
(
)

Multiplication of Probabilities
Independent Events
The probability that two independent events will both occur is the product of the probabilities
of the separate events. Two events are independent if the outcome of one does not influence the
outcome of the other.
Rule

If event A and event B are dependent events, then (

( ) ( ).

Dependent Events
The probabilities of dependent events state that the probabilities of occurrence and non
occurrence of an event affect the probabilities of occurrence and non occurrence of other events.
Rule

If event A and event B are dependent events, then (

( ) ( ).