visuals
100-yr type floods are now expected to
average one in 17-years.
With Climate change; 100-yr type floods
could average one in 5-years
Rain days per year have increased substantially
Ames, IA Precipitation by year 1893-2007
60 y = 0.0517x - 69.076
50
40
30
20
10
0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gcps/papers/icc-us.pdf
1950-1993 Precipitation
y = 6.932x - 12627
3000
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2-fold increase in annual river flow
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Nishnabotna @Hamburg, IA (SW Iowa)
4000
mean annual cfs
3000
2000
1000
0
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
y = 18.825x - 35716
2-fold increase in annual river flow
Year
Iowa River@ IowaCity
9000
8000
7000
mean annual cfs
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1900 y1910 1920 1930
= 14.586x 1940 1950
- 26619 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
year
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
South Central MN Precip Oct- Sep
50
40
30
20
10
a
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Wet Interval
Wet Interval
Dry Interval
Dominance of
greenhouse over some
other factors influencing
global scale climate.
Periodic major ocean
currents are not
included and are
considered to have a
major global
temperature impact.
The PDO
• Dr. Don J. Easterbrook (PDO + CO2)
Wm Gutowski
Climate change models: like pattern, 17% more rain.
PET @ +2.5C
• Will crops benefit from a 17% increase in precipitation or
will potential evapotranspiration increase exceed it?
• Assuming that the diurnal range is 13C (23F) in summer
now and at +2.5 C and that most midsummer mornings
have dew.
• July average high now: 30C, Mid-day VPD= 15.73
• July with change: 32.5C, for a VPD= 17.74
• Increase in PET = 13%
• Assumes sun and wind are unchanged from now.
• So the added rain exceeds the max added water use by 4%.
A 4% increase in water increases the flood events by 3x
(that is have 3 times the floods in Iowa we have now.
2005
2008
2007
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771
Where has all the Sea Ice gone?
• It may be differential
impacts of particulates
• 2009 is the year to
learn
• http://www.bluewaterstudios.com/
• David Thoreson , Iowa
END
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
setaylor@iastate.edu
www.extension.iastate.edu
Iowa State University Extension