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Exercise 2

1.

The resumes of 2 male applicants for a college teaching position in Statistics are placed in
the same file as the resumes of 2 female applicants. Two positions become available and the
first, at the rank of assistant professor, is filled by selecting 1 of the 4 applicants at random.
The second position, at the rank of instructor, is then filled by selecting at random one of the
remaining 3 applicants.
(a)

List the elements of a sample space S;

(b)

List the elements of S corresponding to event A that the position of assistant professor
is filled by a male applicant;

(c)

List the elements of S corresponding to event B that exactly 1 of the 2 positions was
filled by a male applicant;

(d)

List the elements of S corresponding to event C that neither position was filled by a
male applicant;

(e)

List the elements of S corresponding to the event A B and A C ;

(f)

Construct a Venn diagram to illustrate the intersections and unions of the events A, B,
and C.

2. A group of 100 people produced the following information relating to three attributes. The

attributes were wearing glasses, being left handed and having dark hair. Glasses were worn
by 36 people, 34 were left handed and 39 had dark hair. There were 17 who wore glasses
and were left handed, 19 who wore glasses and had dark hair and 16 who were left handed
and had dark hair. Only 10 people wore glasses, were left handed and had dark hair.
(a)

Represent these data on a Venn diagram.

A person was selected at random from this group. Find the probability that this person
(b)

wore glasses but was not left handed and did not have dark hair,

(c)

did not wear glasses, was not left handed and did not have dark hair,

(d)

had only two of the attributes,

3.

The alignment between the magnetic tape and head in a magnetic tape storage system affects
the performance of the system. Suppose that 10% of the read operations are degraded by
skewed alignments, 5% by off-center alignments, 1% by both skewness and off-center and
the remaining read operations are properly aligned. The probability of a read error is 0.01
from a skewed alignment, 0.02 from an off-center alignment, 0.06 from both conditions and
0.001 from a proper alignment.
(a) What is the probability of a read error?
(b) If a read error occurs, what is the probability that it is due to a off-center alignment?
0.00344 ; 0.2907

4.

A certain brand of hand-phone comes in three models A, B and C, such of which is available
with or without built in camera. The probabilities for randomly selected purchase are given
by Table 1.
Table 1 : The probabilities for randomly selected purchase.

Built in camera

Model A

Model B

Model C

(Basic)

(Moderate)

(Advanced)

Yes

0.12

0.17

0.24

No

0.18

0.13

0.16

(a) What is the probability the purchaser select Model B? A probability of purchasing handphone with built in camera?
(b) Given that the purchaser selected a model with a built in camera, what is the probability
that it was a B model? How does this compare to the unconditional probability of
selecting model B? Are these two events independent?
(c) Given that the purchaser selected a model with at least moderate model, what is the
probability that the selected model did not have built in camera?
5.

It is estimated that the probability that an explosion at a construction site could have occurred
as a result of (a) static electricity (b) malfunctioning of equipment (c) carelessness or (d)
sabotage are 0.25, 0.20, 0.40, and 0.75 respectively. It is also judged that the prior
probabilities of the fours causes of the explosion are (a) 0.2 (b) 0.40 (c) 0.25 (d) 0.15. Using
Bayes theorem, find the most likely cause of the explosion

6.

A manufacturing firm employs three analytical plans for the design and development of a
particular product. For cost reasons, all three are used at varying times. In fact, plans 1, 2,
and 3 are used for 30%, 20%, and 50% of the products respectively. The defect rate is
different for the three procedures as follows:
P D P1 0.01,

P D P2 0.03,

P D P3 0.02,

where P D Pj is the probability of a defective product, given plan j. If a random product


was observed and found to be defective, which plan was most likely used and thus
responsible?
0.1579; 0.3158; 0.5263 ; PLAN 3

7.

A company that manufactures video cameras produces a basic model and a deluxe model.
Over the past year, 40% of the cameras sold have been of the basic model. Of those buying
the basic model, 30% purchase an extended warranty, whereas 50% of all deluxe purchasers
do so. If you learn that a randomly selected purchaser has an extended warranty, how likely
is it that he or she has a basic model?
0.2857

8.

In a factory, machines R, S and T are all producing metal rods of the same length. Machine
R produces 35% of the rods, machine S produces 25% and the rest are produced by machine
T. Of their production of rods, machines R, S and T produce 3%, 5% and 4% defective rods
respectively.
(a)

Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.

(b)

Find the probability that a randomly selected rod is


(i)

produced by machine R and is defective,

(ii) is defective.
(c) Given that a randomly selected rod is defective, find the probability that it was
produced by machine T.

9.

In a bolt factory, machine A, B and C respectively produce 20%, 30% and 50% of the total
output. Of their respective outputs, 5%, 3% and 2% are defective. A bolt is selected at
random
(a)

What is the probability that the bolt is defective and it was made by machine A?

(b)

What is the probability that it is defective, P(D)?

(c)

Given that it is defective, what is the probability that it was made by machine A?

0.3582 ; 0.4883 ; 0.4467


10.

A batch of 500 containers for frozen orange juice contains 5 that are defective. Two are
selected, at random, without replacement, from the batch. Let A and B denote the events
that the first and second container selected is defective, respectively
(a)

Describe the sample space of this event with a tree diagram.

(b)

Find

(c)

11.

(i)

P (A B)

(ii)

P (B)

(iii)

P (A | B)

Are A and B independent events?

A manufacture of front lights for automobiles, tests lamps under a high humidity and high
temperature environment using intensity and useful life as the responses of interest. The
following table shows the performance of 130 lamps.
Useful Life

Satisfactory
Intensity

(a)

Unsatisfactory

Satisfactory

Unsatisfactory

117

Find the probability that a randomly selected lamp will yield unsatisfactory results
under any criteria.

(b)

The customers for these lamps demand 95% satisfactory results. Can the lamp
manufacturer meet this demand?

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