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Age of Substance Use Onset as a Predictor of Early Adult Substance Dependence and
Offending in Male and Female Delinquents: Simple and Mediated Moderation
Glenn D. Walters and Heather Urban
Journal of Drug Issues 2014 44: 442 originally published online 22 August 2014
DOI: 10.1177/0022042614542513
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research-article2014

JODXXX10.1177/0022042614542513Journal of Drug IssuesWalters and Urban

Article

Age of Substance Use Onset as a

Predictor of Early Adult Substance
Dependence and Offending in Male
and Female Delinquents: Simple
and Mediated Moderation

Journal of Drug Issues

2014, Vol. 44(4) 442456
The Author(s) 2014
Reprints and permissions:
sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav
DOI: 10.1177/0022042614542513
jod.sagepub.com

Glenn D. Walters1 and Heather Urban1

Abstract
This study was designed first, to test whether sex moderated the effect of substance use onset on
early adult substance dependence and offending and second, to identify the factors responsible
for this effect. Structured equation modeling with 1,281 adjudicated delinquents (1,104 males,
177 females) from the Pathways to Desistance study revealed that sex moderated the onset
substance dependence and onsetoffending relationships. Whereas age of substance use onset
predicted early adult substance dependence in both males and females, it only predicted
early adult offending in males. Out of six putative mediators, only one, adolescent moral
disengagement, satisfied the criteria for mediated moderation. Mediation of the moderated
onsetoffending relationship was the result of moral disengagement correlating with both age
of substance use onset and early adult offending in male but not female delinquents. Moral
disengagement displayed similar patterns of correlation in the onsetsubstance dependency
relationship but failed to satisfy all criteria for mediated moderation.
Keywords
moderation, mediated moderation, substance dependence, offending, age of onset
Research has consistently shown that age of crime onset is one of the best predictors of future
criminality (Farrington et al., 2003). Offenders whose criminal careers began in early to midadolescence present with a more chronic, versatile, and dangerous course of criminality than
offenders who began offending in late adolescence or early adulthood (DeLisi, 2006; Moffitt,
1993; Piquero & Chung, 2001; Tracy, Wolfgang, & Figlio, 1985). An inverse relationship has
also been observed between age at first substance use and later misuse of substances. Studying
both alcohol and illegal drug use, Grant and Dawson (1997, 1998) determined that early onset
alcohol use predicted an increased rate of future alcohol misuse and early onset illegal drug use
predicted an increased rate of future illegal drug misuse. Although early onset substance use may
be predictive of future drug-related social, psychological, and occupational problems (Griffin,
Bang, & Botvin, 2010), it is also possible that the relationship between substance use onset and

1Kutztown

University, PA, USA

Corresponding Author:
Glenn D. Walters, Department of Criminal Justice, Kutztown University, Kutztown, PA 19530-0730, USA.
Email: walters@kutztown.edu

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Walters and Urban

443

later substance-related problems is the product of their common association with some third variable like disinhibition (McGue, Iacono, Legrand, & Elkins, 2001). The purpose of this study was
to explore the relationship between age of substance use onset and early adult substance dependence and offending, with the substances of interest being alcohol and illegal drugs but not
tobacco.
The gender gaps for crime and regular substance use have been narrowing in recent years but
still favor males over females nine to one (Lauritsen, Heimer, & Lynch, 2010) and two to one or
less (Johnston, OMalley, Bachman, & Schulenberg, 2009), respectively. Because much of the
research on age of onset is based on male data, researchers caution that the relationships observed
in many of these studies may not generalize to females. Whereas several studies have found that
males start offending at an earlier age than females, age of onset may be as strongly linked to
future criminal behavior in females as it is in males (Cote, Zoccolillo, Tremblay, Nagin, & Vitaro,
2001; Leve & Chamberlain, 2004; Mazerolle, Brame, Paternoster, Piquero, & Dean, 2000;
Odgers et al., 2008). Studies on sex differences in the age of substance use onset are more equivocal than those on sex differences in the age of crime onsetwith some studies showing that
boys start drinking and using marijuana earlier than girls (Hayatbakhsh, Williams, Bor, &
Najman, 2013; Trim, Schuckit, & Smith, 2010) and other studies indicating that age of onset for
substance use does not differ between boys and girls (Chartier, Hesselbrock, & Hesselbrock,
2011). Nevertheless, age of substance use onset appears to be equally predictive of substancerelated problems in both males and females (Baumeister & Tossmann, 2005).
Although there is a well-documented relationship between crime and substance misuse, the
causal mechanisms behind this relationship have yet to be identified. Epiphenomenal theories
propose that a common variable like general deviance or low self-control is responsible for the
crimesubstance use relationship (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Jessor & Jessor, 1977), and
whereas such theories have received support (Hicks, Krueger, Iacono, McGue, & Patrick, 2004),
so have theories postulating a direct causal link between substance misuse and crime (Newcomb
& McGee, 1989; Uggen & Thompson, 2003). Early onset crime, in fact, has been found to predict future substance misuse (Gordon, Kinlock, & Battjes, 2004), and early onset substance use
has been found to predict future offending (Slade et al., 2008). Whereas drugs and crime correlate
in both men and women, the correlation may be slightly stronger in women (Forsythe & Adams,
2009; Karberg & James, 2005). This has given rise, in part, to the gendered pathways school of
criminology. According to proponents of this school, males and females display divergent patterns of crime initiation, maintenance, and desistance (Chesney-Lind & Palko, 2004). Offending
in girls and women, it is argued, is more a function of mental health issues, relationship problems, prior physical and sexual abuse, and substance misuse than it is in boys and men (Palmer,
Jinks, & Hatcher, 2010). A recent study by Loxley and Adams (2009) determined that the gendered pathways model may extend to age of onset in that the typical pattern is for age of crime
onset to precede age of substance use onset in men, whereas in women, the typical pattern is for
age of substance use onset to precede age of crime onset.
The results of the Loxley and Adams (2009) study suggest that sex may play a moderating role
in the relationship between age of drug use onset and future offending and substance use. A further possibility is that additional factors mediate this moderated relationship. The results of a
study published more than 10 years before the Loxley and Adams investigation showed that sex
moderation of the relationship between age of substance use onset and future behavior relationship was potentially mediated by an unidentified third variable. Hawkins et al. (1997) conducted
a 7-year follow-up of a group of 808 male and female 10- to 11-year-old students and discovered
that a younger age of alcohol initiation predicted higher levels of alcohol misuse at ages 17 or 18.
Age of onset fully mediated the effects of race, parental drinking, parental involvement, school
bonding, and peer alcohol use on future alcohol misuse. Only sex had an independent effect on
the alcohol misuse outcome. Hawkins et al. reasoned that because there was no main effect of sex

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Journal of Drug Issues 44(4)

on age of onset, the effect must have been the result of factors that surfaced after alcohol use had
already begun. Although Hawkins et al. did not specify the actual mechanism of mediation, cognitive variables have traditionally been used in research on mediation (Bandura, 1986).
Several cognitive variables from the Pathways to Desistance study (Mulvey, 2012), the sample used in the current study, have been examined as potential mediators of important criminal
justice relationships. Among the relationships that have been examined using Pathways to
Desistance data, there is the effect of comorbid drug use and crime on subsequent offending and
substance dependence (Walters, 2014a) and the connection between early animal cruelty and
later criminal violence (Walters, 2014c). Some scholars believe that mediation analysis is an
exclusively confirmatory enterprise and that everythingfrom the strength of the various pathways to whether mediation will be partial or completeshould be specified beforehand (James,
Mulaik, & Brett, 2006). Other scholars contend that mediation analysis can also be treated as an
exploratory technique, although there should be at least some guidance from theory even when
using an exploratory approach (Boomsma, 2000; Kraemer, Kieman, Essex, & Kupfer, 2008). The
theoretical model that will guide this exploratory mediation analysis is social cognitive theory
(Bandura, 1986). Social cognitive theory holds that cognitive variables often mediate important
relationships between social and behavioral variables. Examples include studies showing that
criminal thinking mediates the past crimefuture crime relationship in adult felons, low selfefficacy to avoid future arrest mediates the relationship between past and future delinquency
(Walters, in press), and hostile attribution biases and positive outcome expectancies for aggression mediate the relationship between harsh parenting and childhood aggression (Heidgerken,
Hughes, Cavell, & Willson, 2004).
Mediation and moderation are often confused, although they represent two distinct processes.
Mediation is designed for interpretation and identification of causal mechanisms. As such, it
models the mediating or intervening effect of a third variable (M) on the relationship between the
independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables. Moderation, however, is designed for specification
or context. Accordingly, it models the effect of a third variable (W) on the strength or direction
of the relationship between X and Y (Little, Card, Bovaird, & Preacher, 2007). Mediated moderation involves a moderated relationship between X and Y that is mediated by M (Baron & Kenny,
1986). Because specification is considered a prelude to interpretation, researchers often search
for the mechanism behind a moderation effect by conducting a mediated moderation analysis. In
searching for a possible mechanism behind sex moderation of the relationship between age of
substance use onset and early adult substance dependence and offending, the previously reviewed
Loxley and Adams (2009) study may be of some assistance. Taking into account the moderating
effect of sex observed by Loxley and Adams, research supporting gendered pathways to crime
(Chesney-Lind & Palko, 2004), and the powerful role of cognitive factors in mediating relationships between non-cognitive variables (Bandura, 1986), it could be argued that (a) age of substance use onset predicts future substance dependence and crime differently for males and
females (moderation effect), and (b) cognitive variables potentially mediate the relationship
between the age of Substance use onset Sex interaction and later substance dependence and
offending (mediated moderation effect).
Based on the logic outlined in the previous paragraph, a two-part hypothesis was proposed
and tested in this study. The first part of the hypothesis held that age of substance use onset would
predict early adult substance dependence and offending in both male and female delinquents, but
that the effect would vary according to sex as represented by a significant Onset Sex interaction
(moderation effect). In the event a significant moderation effect was observed, the second half of
the hypothesis asserted that one or more variables from a list of six pre-selected cognitive variables would mediate the relationship between the Onset Sex interaction and early adult substance dependence and offending, whereas simple slope analysis would identify a mediating
effect for one gender but not the other.

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445

Method
Participants
The Pathways to Desistance study (Mulvey, 2012) began in 2003 and ended in 2010. The complete Pathways sample is composed of 1,354 adjudicated delinquents (1,170 males, 184 females).
Data from the baseline interview (Wave 0) and all 10 follow-up interviews (Waves 1-10: with 6
months between the first six waves and 12 months between the last four waves) were included in
this study. At the time of the baseline interview, 73 individuals stated that they had never before
used substances and 541 either refused to answer the question or the question was not asked. The
73 individuals who indicated that they had never before used substances were removed from the
study, resulting in a final sample of 1,281 (1,104 males, 177 females) participants. These participants ranged in age from 14 to 19 years (M = 16.08, SD = 1.13) at baseline and represented the
following ethnic categories: 20.5% White, 40.7% Black, 34.0% Hispanic, and 4.9% Other. A
second or partial sample was created by including only individuals who actually answered the
age of substance use onset question (740 participants: 629 males, 111 females).

Measures
Independent variables. There were two independent variables included in this study: sex (male,
female) and age at first use of alcohol or drugs. Self-reported age at first use of alcohol or drugs
ranged from 9 years or younger to 17 years. This item was unavailable for 541 participants (532
were never asked this question, 3 had data missing, and 6 replied dont know). The interaction
term between age of substance use onset and sex was computed from the product of the two
centered variables.
Dependent variables.Early adult substance dependency symptoms and early adult offending
served as dependent variables in this study. Early adult substance dependence was calculated as
the sum of scores from one Pathways scale (total number of substance use dependency symptoms)
for the four waves spanning Wave 7 through Wave 10. The 10 substance use dependency symptoms included in the Pathways study were as follows: strong urge or desire to use, pre-occupation,
withdrawal symptoms, using to relieve withdrawal symptoms, reducing and giving up activities
and interests, using more than intended, using longer than intended, unsuccessful attempts to stop
or cut down, tolerance, and needing/depending. Prorated scores were calculated for participants
with no more than half of their Wave 7 to 10 substance dependence scores missing by computing
an average score and then multiplying this score by 10 (the number of items on the scale).
Early adult offending was calculated from the total number of times a participant reported
engaging in a specific criminal act over the past 12 months (Waves 7-10: no times = 0; 1-2
times = 1; 3-4 times = 2; 5 or more times = 3). Frequency scores for 15 non-substance-related
offenses from Huizinga, Esbensen, and Weihars (1991) Self-Reported Offending (SRO) measure were summed across the four waves running from Wave 7 to Wave 10. The 15 crime types
used to calculate the summed frequency score were as follows: destroyed/damaged property, set
fire, broke into a home or business to steal, shoplifted, bought/received/sold stolen property, used
check/credit card illegally, stole car or motorcycle, carjacked, paid to have sex, shot someone,
shot at someone, took by force with a weapon, took by force without a weapon, beat someone up
so bad that they required medical attention, and participated in a fight. Prorated scores were calculated for participants with no more than half their frequency scores missing by computing an
average score and then multiplying this score by 15 (the number of items on the scale).
Mediator variables. The current study included six self-report measures considered possible cognitive mediators of the sex-moderated onsetoutcome relationships measured between Waves 1

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Journal of Drug Issues 44(4)

and 6 of the Pathways study. Each of these factors had been studied previously as mediators in
research using Pathways data (Walters, 2014a, 2014c). The Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI;
Derogatis & Melisaratos, 1983) is a 53-item inventory of symptoms respondents are asked to rate
on a scale from 0 (not at all) to 4 (extremely) on how bothersome the symptom has been to them
in the past week. The BSI Hostility Scale (BSI-H) displayed adequate internal consistency over
Waves 1 to 6 of the Pathways study, Cronbachs = .75 to .80 (Mulvey, 2012).
The Future Outlook Inventory (FOI; Cauffman & Woolard, 1999) is a 15-item self-report
scale on which respondents rate their time perspective, future orientation, and overall level of
goal-directedness using a 4-point scale (1 = never true, 4 = always true). High scores on the FOI
indicate a high degree of planning, organization, and forethought, whereas low scores indicate a
reactive/impulsive approach to life and weak future orientation. The internal consistency of the
FOI over Waves 1 to 6 of the Pathways study (Mulvey, 2012) was above average ( = .69-.73).
Moral disengagement (MD) reflects a respondents tendency to justify and rationalize various
acts of wrongdoing (Bandura, Barbarnelli, Caprara, & Pastorelli, 1996). Elevated scores on this
scale suggest higher levels of moral detachment, whereas lower scores denote greater moral
integrity. Each of the 32 items on this scale are rated using a 3-point scale (1 = disagree, 3 =
agree), and a participants score on this scale is calculated as the average rating across the 32
items. The internal consistency of the MD Scale in Waves 1 to 6 of the Pathways study was high
( = .90-.92; Mulvey, 2012).
The 50-item Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory (YPI; Andershed, Kerr, Stattin, & Levander,
2002) is designed to measure psychopathic tendencies in adolescents and young adults. Items on
this scale are rated on a 4-point scale (1 = does not apply, 4 = applies very well). The three YPI
dimensional scores (Grandiose/Manipulative [GM], Callous/Unemotional [CU], Impulsive/
Irresponsible [II]) served as putative mediators of the onsetoutcome relationship in the current
study. Each score was calculated as an average item score. The YPI-GM, YPI-CU, and YPI-II
scores demonstrated above average to good internal consistency () across the first six waves of
the Pathways study: .91 to .92 for YPI-GM, .73 to .79 for YPI-CU, and .82 to .86 for YPI-II
(Mulvey, 2012).

Procedure
Participants for the original Pathways study were adjudicated delinquents recruited from the
juvenile and adult court systems in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Each participant was selected after a review of court files showed that they had been adjudicated delinquent or found guilty of a serious offense committed when they were between the ages of 14 and
17. The proportion of male participants with drug offenses was capped at 15%, whereas all
female participants satisfying the age and adjudication requirements were eligible for enrollment; this resulted in current offenses for drugs of 31.5% in the female subsample. Each question
was read to respondents by a trained interviewer, and participants responded either verbally or on
a keypad. There were two 2-hr baseline interviews and 10 follow-up interviews, each of which
lasted approximately 2 hr. The first six interviews (Waves 1-6) were conducted 6 months apart,
and the last four interviews (Waves 7-10) were conducted 12 months apart. Attrition from baseline to late adolescence (Waves 1-6) was 1.3% and from baseline to early adulthood (Waves
7-10) was 6.3%. The only significant attrition pattern for the demographic, independent variables, dependent variables, or mediating variables included in this study was the older baseline
age of juveniles who did not participate in the early adult assessment (M = 16.41, SD = 1.00)
compared with juveniles who did participate in the early adult assessment (M = 16.06,
SD = 1.14).
Statistical analyses. MPlus 5.0 (Muthn & Muthn, 1998-2007) was used to perform the path
(structural equation modeling) analyses for this study. All analyses used a maximum likelihood

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Walters and Urban

M: Waves 1-6
b1

a1
X: Wave 0
c'1
a2

c'2

W: Wave 0
a3

Y: Waves 7-10

c'3

XW: Wave 0

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the pathways in Preacher, Rucker, and Hayess (2007) Model 2.

Note. Solid lines are direct effects and dashed lines are indirect effects; X = independent variable: age of substance
use onset; W = moderator variable: sex; XW = interaction between the independent and moderator variables; M =
mediator variable: moral disengagement at Waves 1 to 6; Y = dependent variable: total offending at Waves 7 to 10 or
substance dependency symptoms at Waves 7 to 10.

with robust standard errors (MLR) estimator. The indirect effect of each mediator on the relationships between the Onset Sex interaction term and early adult substance dependence and offending was tested individually. Putative mediators achieving significant individual effects were then
subjected to further analysis based on the understanding that mediated moderation requires the
presence of three conditions: (a) a significant indirect (mediated) effect from the Onset Sex
interaction to the offending/substance outcome; (b) significant a3 and b1 paths in Preacher,
Rucker, and Hayess (2007) Model 2 (see Figure 1); and (c) a reduction in the direct effect (c3)
of the Onset Sex interaction on the outcome when the mediator variable is entered into the
equation (Muller, Judd, & Yzerbyt, 2005). Sensitivity testing was conducted using Kennys
(2013) failsafe ef procedure.
The first set of analyses calculated for this study were simple moderator analyses of age of
substance use onset as a predictor of early adult substance dependence and offending, using sex
as a moderating variable and age as a control variable. The early adult substance dependence
measure was the sum of Waves 7 through 10 substance dependence scores, and the early adult
offending measure was the sum of Waves 7 through 10 total offending scores. The term early
adult was used in this context because nearly all participants were between 18 and 24 years of
age (M = 21.04) during these waves. Moderation of the onsetoutcome relationships for early
adult substance dependence and early adult offending was tested with an interaction term formed
by multiplying sex and age of onset after both variables had been centered. The simple slopes for
male and female participants were also calculated.
If a significant moderation (interaction) effect surfaced, the next step of the procedure was to
conduct a mediated moderation analysis. Six potential mediators of the sex-moderated onset
outcome relationships were evaluated: BSI-H, FOI, MD, YPI-GM, YPI-CU, and YPI-II. Scores
for each putative mediator were averaged across Waves 1 through 6 of the Pathways study. The
term adolescent was used to identify this time frame because nearly all participants were between
the ages of 14 and 20 years (M = 17.54) when these measures were being collected.
Simple slopes were calculated for both moderation analyses and for each of the mediated
moderation analyses achieving significance. Simple slopes provide feedback on the relationship
between the independent, dependent, and mediator variables at various levels of the moderator
variable. Hence, for both sets of substance use onset analyses, simple slope regressions of early
adult substance dependence and early adult offending were calculated for males and females
separately. Simple slopes were also calculated for significant mediated moderation effects such

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Journal of Drug Issues 44(4)

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics and Correlations Between the Independent and Dependent Variables
From This Study.
Variable
Onset
Sex
OS
Early adult substance
Early adult offending

N/n

SD

Range

Sex

OS

Substance

Crime

740
1,281
740
1,203
1,200

12.99
1.14
0.02
2.51
4.93

2.01
0.34
1.01
4.77
8.08

9-17
1-2
5.00-5.03
0-30.67
0-56.00

.02

.01
.05

.11**
.05
.09*

.19***
.12***
.04
.39***

Note. N/n = number of participants with complete data on variable; Range = range of scores in current sample; O
S = Onset Sex interaction; Onset = self-reported age at first use of alcohol or drugs; Sex was dichotomized as
male (1) versus female (2); Onset Sex = interaction between age of onset of criminal offending and sex; Early Adult
Substance = total number of substance use dependency symptoms from Waves 7 to 10; Early Adult Offending = total
offending from Waves 7 to 10.
*p < .05. **p < .01. ***p < .001.

Table 2. Sex as a Moderator of the Relationship Between Age of Substance Use Onset and Early Adult
Substance Dependence.
Variable
Age
Onset
Sex
Onset Sex
Simple slopes for onset
Male
Female

95% CI

0.092
0.276
0.846
0.418

[0.125, 0.310]
[0.442, 0.0110]
[0.038, 1.730]
[0.781, 0.056]

0.83
3.26
1.88
2.26

.406
.001
.061
.024

0.182
1.084

[0.344, 0.020]
[1.701, 0.467]

2.20
3.44

.028
.001

Note. N = 1,281, male n = 1,104, female n = 177; b = unstandardized regression coefficient; 95% CI = 95% confidence
interval for the unstandardized regression coefficient; t = asymptotic t test; p = significance level of the asymptotic t
test; Onset = self-reported age at first use of alcohol or drugs; Sex dichotomized as male (1) versus female (2); Onset
Sex = interaction between age of onset of criminal offending and sex.

that the direct and indirect pathways between independent, mediator, and dependent variables
were modeled for male and female participants separately.
Missing data. All missing data for the age of substance use onset analyses were handled with the
full information maximum likelihood (FIML) feature of MPlus. This meant that all 1,281 members of the Pathways sample who reported having ever used alcohol or illicit drugs at the time of
the baseline interview were included in the core analyses, with all missing data being handled
with FIML. A second set of analyses was performed on the 740 individuals with complete age at
first substance use data. Because these results did not differ significantly from the FIML results,
only the FIML results are reported in the next section.

Results
Descriptive statistics and correlations for the substance use onset predictor (age of substance use
onset, sex, Onset Sex interaction) and outcome (early adult substance dependence symptoms,
early adult offending) variables can be found in Table 1. There was no difference in age of initial
substance use between males (M = 12.97, SD = 2.02) and females (M = 13.10, SD = 1.95),
t(738) = 0.62, p = .54, although as outlined in Tables 2 and 3, sex significantly moderated the
onsetoutcome relationships for early adult substance dependence and early adult offending,

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Walters and Urban

Table 3. Sex as a Moderator of the Relationship Between Age of Substance Use Onset and Early Adult
Offending.
Variable
Age
Onset
Sex
Onset Sex
Simple slopes for onset
Male
Female

95% CI

0.207
0.766
2.882
0.459

[0.625, 0.210]
[1.109, 0.423]
[3.736, 2.028]
[0.065, 0.854]

0.97
4.38
6.62
2.28

.330
.000
.000
.023

0.858
0.149

[1.245, 0.471]
[0.578, 0.279]

4.34
0.68

.000
.494

Note. N = 1,281, male n = 1,104, female n = 177; b = unstandardized regression coefficient; 95% CI = 95% confidence
interval for the unstandardized regression coefficient; t = asymptotic t test; p = significance level of the asymptotic t
test; Onset = self-reported age at first use of alcohol or drugs; Sex dichotomized as male (1) versus female (2); Onset
Sex = interaction between age of onset of criminal offending and sex.

respectively. Simple slope analyses revealed that although age of substance use onset predicted
early adult substance dependency symptoms in both males and females, the effect was stronger
in females (see Table 2) and that age of substance use onset only predicted early adult offending
in males (see Table 3).
Of the six putative mediator variables, only MD met the first condition for mediated moderation: that is, a statistically significant indirect effect on the relationship between Age of substance
use onset Sex interaction and early adult substance dependence (b = 0.057, standard error
[SE] = 0.022, t = 2.61, p < .01). It also satisfied the second condition: that is, significant a3 and b1
pathways (see Table 4). However, it failed to satisfy the third condition because the c3 pathway
or direct effect of the independent variable (Onset Sex) on the dependent variable (early adult
substance dependence) was not reduced (from t = 2.26, p < .05 to t = 2.56, p < .05) when the
mediator (MD) was added to the regression equation. Even so, the results of a simple slope analysis of these data implied that MD mediated the onsetsubstance relationship in male delinquents
whereas a direct effect, possibly mediated by variables that were not identified in this study, characterized the onsetsubstance dependence relationship in female delinquents (see Table 5).
In contrast to the results obtained on the substance dependence outcome, a full mediated moderation model fit the sex-moderated relationship between age of substance use onset and adult
offending. Again, MD was the only cognitive variable to achieve a significant indirect effect (b =
0.198, SE = 0.064, t = 3.09, p < .01). Incidentally, this effect remained significant even after concurrent (Waves 1-6) offending was controlled (b = 0.071, SE = 0.034, t = 2.12, p < .05). Second,
as indicated by the results summarized in Table 6, both the a3 pathway between the independent
variable (Onset Sex) and mediator (MD) and the b1 pathway between the mediator and dependent variable (early adult offending) were significant. Third, the direct effect of the independent
variable on the dependent variable went from significant (t = 2.27, p < .05) to non-significant (t =
1.31, p = .190) when the mediator variable was added to the regression equation.
Analysis of the simple slopes of the significant sex-moderated onsetoffending relationship
determined that MD fully mediated the effect of Onset Sex on early adult offending in males,
whereas MD failed to mediate the effect of age of substance use onset on early adult offending in
females (see Table 7). Using Kennys failsafe ef to conduct a sensitivity analysis of these
results revealed that an unobserved confounder would need to correlate .51 with both the mediator and outcome variables to completely eliminate the mediating effect of MD on the relationship
between age of substance use onset and early adult offending in males. Given that a correlation
of .50 represents a large effect size (Cohen, 1988), these results denote the presence of a robust
mediating effect for adolescent MD in the male subsample.

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Journal of Drug Issues 44(4)

Table 4. Mediated Moderation of the Relationship Between Age of Substance Use Onset and Early
Adult Substance Dependence.

Variable
Age
Onset (a1, c1)
Sex (a2, c2)
Onset Sex (a3, c3)
Moral disengagement (b1)

a pathways

b pathway

c pathways

(Criterion: Moral disengagement)

(Criterion: Early adult

substance)

(Criterion: Early adult substance)

Est. 95% CI

Est. 95% CI

0.004 [0.010, 0.019]

0.027 [0.037, 0.017]
0.165 [0.203, 0.127]
0.027 [0.011, 0.042]

0.59
5.11**
8.58**
3.34**
2.147 [1.168, 3.125]

Est. 95% CI

0.080 [0.135, 0.295]

0.218 [0.385, 0.052]
1.202 [0.321, 2.084]
0.476 [0.840, 0.111]

0.73
2.58*
2.67*
2.56*

4.30**

Note. N = 1,281. Est. = unstandardized regression coefficient; 95% CI = upper and lower limits of the 95% confidence interval; t =
asymptotic t test; Age = chronological age in years; Onset = self-reported age at first use of alcohol or drugs; Sex dichotomized as
male (1) versus female (2); Onset Sex = interaction between age of substance use onset and sex; Moral Disengagement = moral
disengagement score from Waves 1 to 6; Early Adult Substance = early adult substance dependence from Waves 7 to 10.
*p < .05. **p < .001.

Table 5. Simple Slopes of the Relationship Between Age of Substance Use Onset and Early Adult
Substance Dependence by Sex.

Variable

a1 pathways

b1 pathway

c1 pathways

(Criterion: Moral
disengagement)

(Criterion: Early adult

substance)

(Criterion: Early
adult substance)

Est. 95% CI

Male subsample
0.007 [0.009, 0.023]
Age
Onset (a1, c1)
0.033 [0.044, 0.021]
Moral disengagement (b1)
Female subsample
Age
0.010 [0.047, 0.027]
Onset (a1, c1)
0.006 [0.010, 0.022]
Moral disengagement (b1)

Est. 95% CI

0.81
5.48**

Est. 95% CI
0.073 [0.145, 0.291]
0.113 [0.274, 0.048]

2.328 [1.299, 3.357]

4.44**

0.53
0.73
0.502 [2.561. 3.566]

0.32

t
0.65
1.37

0.129 [0.644, 0.901]

0.65
1.091 [1.707, 0.475] 3.47**

Note. n = 1,104 (male subsample) and 177 (female subsample). Est. = unstandardized regression coefficient; 95% CI = upper and
lower limits of the 95% confidence interval; t = asymptotic t test; Age = chronological age in years; Onset = self-reported age at first
use of alcohol or drugs; Moral Disengagement = moral disengagement score from Waves 1 to 6; Early Adult Substance = early adult
substance dependence from Waves 7 to 10.
*p < .05. **p < .001.

The fact that female delinquents were twice as likely as male delinquents to have current
charges for drugs (31.5% vs. 15.0%) introduces the possibility of a fundamental difference in
offense patterns between the sexes. Comparing male and female delinquents on prior drug
offending, however, revealed that significantly more males than females reported participating in
a drug offense prior to the baseline interview: 59.0% versus 44.6%, 2(1) = 12.79, p < .001.
Weighting the female sample so that prior drug offending was equally represented in male and
female participants (59.0%) and recalculating all analyses produced results that were essentially
the same as the results achieved using the original unweighted samples.

Discussion
A two-part hypothesis was tested in this study. The first part predicted that sex would moderate
the relationships between age of substance use onset and early adult substance dependence and

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Walters and Urban

Table 6. Mediated Moderation of the Relationship Between Age of Substance Use Onset and Early
Adult Offending.

Variable
Age
Onset (a1, c1)
Sex (a2, c2)
Onset Sex (a3, c3)
Moral disengagement (b1)

a pathways

b pathway

c pathways

(Criterion: Moral
disengagement)

(Criterion: Early adult

offending)

(Criterion: Early
adult offending)

Est. 95% CI

Est. 95% CI

0.005 [0.010, 0.019]

0.027 [0.038, 0.017]
0.166 [0.203, 0.128]
0.027 [0.011, 0.043]

0.60
5.14**
8.61**
3.38**
7.308 [5.367, 9.249]

Est. 95% CI

0.254 [0.650, 0.141]

0.572 [0.895, 0.249]
1.657 [2.508, 0.806]
0.266 [0.132, 0.664]

1.26
3.47**
3.82**
1.31

7.38**

Note. N = 1,281. Est. = unstandardized regression coefficient; 95% CI = upper and lower limits of the 95% confidence interval; t =
asymptotic t test; Age = chronological age in years; Onset = self-reported age at first use of alcohol or drugs; Sex dichotomized as
male (1) versus female (2); Onset Sex = interaction between age of substance use onset and sex; Moral Disengagement = moral
disengagement score from Waves 1 to 6; Early Adult Offending = early adult offending from Waves 7 to 10.
*p < .05. **p < .001.

Table 7. Simple Slopes of the Relationship Between Age of Substance Use Onset and Early Adult
Offending by Sex.

Variable
Male subsample
Age
Onset (a1, c1)
Moral disengagement (b1)
Female subsample
Age
Onset (a1, c1)
Moral disengagement (b1)

a pathways

b pathway

c pathways

(Criterion: Moral
disengagement)

(Criterion: Early adult

offending)

(Criterion: Early
adult offending)

Est. 95% CI

0.007 [0.009, 0.023]

0.033 [0.044, 0.021]

0.82
5.49**

Est. 95% CI

7.652 [5.563, 9.741]

0.010 [0.047, 0.027]
0.006 [0.010, 0.022]

0.182 [0.623, 0.258]

0.616 [0.977, 0.254]

0.81
3.34**

7.18**

0.53
0.73
3.874 [0.301, 8.049]

Est. 95% CI

1.82

0.843 [1.526, 0.160] 2.42*

0.177 [0.610, 0.255] 0.80

Note. n = 1,104 (male subsample) and 177 (female subsample). Est. = unstandardized regression coefficient; 95% CI = upper and lower
limits of the 95% confidence interval; t = asymptotic t test; Age = chronological age in years; Onset = self-reported age at first use of
alcohol or drugs; Moral Disengagement = moral disengagement score from Waves 1 to 6; Early Adult Offending = early adult offending
from Waves 7 to 10.
*p < .05. **p < .001.

offending. Sex moderated both relationships, although in opposite directions. The simple slope
analyses revealed that age of drug use onset was a significantly better predictor of early adult
substance dependence in females than in males, whereas just the opposite was found when onset
was used to predict early adult offending. The second part of the hypothesis held that these moderating effects would be mediated by one or more cognitive variables. Results from the first
mediated moderation analysis revealed that adolescent MD fully mediated the onsetsubstance
dependence relationship in males but in females, only the direct onsetsubstance dependence
pathway was significant. Nevertheless, these results did not qualify as true mediated moderation
because the Onset Sex interaction effect did not diminish when the mediator was introduced.
Results from the second mediated moderation, however, were fully congruent with mediated
moderation and revealed that an early age of first substance use correlated with early adult
offending in males via adolescent MD, whereas in females, an early age of first substance use had
neither a direct nor indirect effect on early adult offending.

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Journal of Drug Issues 44(4)

There is nothing in the results of this study or much of previous research in this area to suggest
that crime and substance misuse are better correlated in one gender than the other (Walters,
2014b; see Forsythe & Adams, 2009; Karberg & James, 2005, for exceptions to this general rule),
but there is some indication that the relationship is expressed differently in male and female
delinquents. The effect of age of substance use onset on early adult offending was mediated by
MD in male delinquents but not in female delinquents. The effect of age of substance use onset
on early adult substance dependence, although significant in both males and females, was clearly
stronger in females. In adjudicated female delinquents, age of substance use onset predicted
future substance dependence symptoms but failed to predict future offending. In adjudicated
male delinquents, age of substance use onset predicted future substance dependence symptoms
and offending in a manner that was alternately partially and fully mediated by MD. Whereas
drugs and crime are robustly correlated in men and women, MD may be an important linking
factor for men only; for women, an early age of substance use onset had a direct or unmediated
effect on early adult substance dependence, but this may have only been because the active
mediator was not identified or available in the Pathways study.
Whether age of onset is a causal factor (Zucker, 1987) or simply a marker for future crime and
substance-related problems (King & Chassin, 2007) is difficult to discern from the results of this
study because the relevant precursor variables (e.g., disinhibited temperament, poor parenting)
were unavailable prior to baseline assessment of age of substance use onset to serve as control
variables. Nonetheless, the mediated moderation analyses on age of substance use onset and
early adult substance dependence/offending suggest possible causal mechanisms. The absence of
a mediated moderation effect for the onsetsubstance dependence relationship indicates that
none of the six cognitive variables evaluated in this study explained sex moderation of the onset
substance dependence relationship, although MD did mediate this relationship in males. The
presence of a mediated moderation effect for the onsetoffending relationship suggests that early
onset substance use may encourage MD in male adjudicated delinquents, which, in turn, may
augment the individuals propensity for early adult criminal offending. Identifying the component or components of MDwhether euphemistic labeling, advantageous comparison, displacement or diffusion of responsibility, disregard or distortion of consequences, or dehumanization
(Bandura, 1999)responsible for this effect would be a fruitful topic for future investigation.
A theoretical implication of the current results is that it appears to support the gendered pathways model of offending (Chesney-Lind & Palko, 2004). Previous research has shown that substance abuse may be more important to female offending than it is to male offending (Greenfield
& Snell, 1999; Loxley & Adams, 2009; Mullings, Pollock, & Crouch, 2002; Staton-Tindall,
Royse, & Leukefeld, 2007). The current results suggest that age of substance use onset failed to
predict early adult offending in adjudicated female delinquents but did predict early adult substance dependency symptoms in these same female delinquents. For adjudicated male delinquents, age of substance use onset indirectly predicted both early adult offending and early adult
substance dependence via MD. Given that the mediation analyses were exploratory in nature and
only one of the six putative mediators achieved significance, these results require replication, in
that pre-baseline levels of MD may have just as easily caused an early onset of substance use as
an early age of drug use onset caused a rise in MD. The results for gender moderation of the
relationship between age of drug use onset and early adult substance dependence and offending,
however, were strong and consistent, suggesting that although age of substance use onset predicted future offending in boys and future substance dependence in both girls and boys, the manner by which it achieves its effect and the specific form of deviance that is most affected varies
across gender.
There are also practical implications to these results. With respect to offender assessment, age
of substance misuse onset may be a more effective marker for future offending in male delinquents and a more effective marker for future substance dependence in female delinquents. With

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453

respect to offender treatment, the current results insinuate that whereas substance abuse programming may be effective with both male and female delinquents, the treatment protocol may need
to be modified to take advantage of certain gender-based differences in need. Hence, whereas
drug treatment for male delinquents should include a healthy dose of interventions for crimerelated needs (i.e., delinquent associates, antisocial personality processes, and criminal thinking,
with an emphasis on MD), drug treatment for female delinquents should place at least as much
emphasis on substance-related needs (i.e., substance-using peers, drug use triggers, relapse prevention) as crime-related needs. With respect to prevention, the current results suggest that prevention efforts with males should be directed toward addressing MD and how early onset of
substance misuse may encourage development of this cognitive style whereas with females, the
emphasis should be on early substance use and the family, peer, and emotional issues that have
been found to correlate with early substance use in girls (Jenkins et al., 2011).
Several limitations need to be taken into account when interpreting the results of this study.
First, the female subsample was small in comparison to the male subsample. This may explain
why age of substance use onset failed to predict offending in female participants, but it does not
explain the robust direct effect age of substance use onset had on early adult substance dependence in these same female delinquents. Second, a greater proportion of female than male participants had been adjudicated for drugs owing to the fact that drug offenses were capped at 15% in
the male subsample (Mulvey, 2012), whereas a greater proportion of male than female delinquents reported involvement in drug offenses pre-baseline. Consequently, findings attributed to
gender in the current study may have had more to do with the disproportionate number of drug
offenders in the two subsamples; yet when the female subsample was weighted to be comparable
with the male subsample in proportion of drug offending, the results mirrored the original analyses. Third, age of substance use onset did not distinguish between alcohol and illegal drugs. This
is noteworthy because prior research has shown that onsetoutcome correlations may vary
depending on whether alcohol or illegal drugs are used to compute onset (Baumeister &
Tossmann, 2005; Trenz et al., 2012). Fourth, although the onsetoutcome relationships obtained
in this study were prospective, the age of onset measures were based on retrospective accounts
recorded at baseline. Fifth, the current sample consisted of adjudicated delinquents and so the
generalizability of the results to non-adjudicated males and females is uncertain.
Further research is required to clarify the nature and extent of some of the relationships
observed in this study. It would be advisable, for instance, to start the data collection phase of the
study before the onset of substance use and do so in short (no more than 6 month) intervals so
that measures of drug use onset are less dependent on participant long-term recall and precursor
variables can be included in the analyses. This would provide for more accurate estimate of age
at first use of alcohol or drugs and provide additional control variables to rule out alternative
explanations of the results. It would likewise be beneficial if onset of alcohol use and onset of
illegal drug use were gauged separately because this could make a difference in the results.
Finally, it would be advantageous if the study was conducted on a representative sample of youth
unselected for offending. A study of this type would go a long way toward answering the question
of whether the relationships observed in this study are a consequence of divergent crimesubstance relationships based on sex or simply artifacts of some uncontrolled precursor variable.
Declaration of Conflicting Interests
The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or
publication of this article.

Funding
The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

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Journal of Drug Issues 44(4)

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Author Biographies
Glenn D. Walters, PhD, is an associate professor of criminal justice at Kutztown University where he
teaches classes in the management of offenders, drugs and crime, and research methods. His research interests center on offender assessment and the overlap between drug use and crime.
Heather Urban is an undergraduate student at Kutztown University. Her primary research interests include
offender classification and delinquency prevention.

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