International Seminar on the 10th Commemoretation of The Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004,

Kementrian Kelautan dan Perikanan, Hotel Borobudur, 24-25

24 25 November 2014

Seismic
S
i
i H
Hazards
d iin S
Sunda
d
Trench after the IOT 2004
Danny Hilman Natawidjaja

LabEarth, Indonesian Institute of Sciences

GREAT (Graduate Reseach on earthquake and Active Tectonics - ITB

MENTAWAI BACKTHRUST

TOPICS
Seismic and Tsunami Hazards-Risks
Hazards Risks in
Sunda Trench after IOT 2014
Scientific Knowledges of dissasters
shall lead dissaster risk reduction (DRR)
practices
Handling uncertainty in earthquake
prediction
di ti
and
dh
how t
to apply
l th
them in
i DRR
practices
Sumatran case is one of the best
example for applying sciences to DRR
practices

ACTIVE TECTONICS ELEMENTS

KALIMANTAN

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

Andaman
Spreading
Center

MALAYSIA

SUMATRA
Sumatran Fault
Back Thrust
Subduction Zone
50 mm/yr

Megathrust
60 mm/yr
70 mm/yr

HINDIA OCEAN
2009 EQ: INTRACRUSTAL FAULT

HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES ON MEGATHRUST

KALIMANTAN

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

LOCKED PATCHES ON MEGATHRUST

Based on GPS and Coral Microatoll data

MALAYSIA

MALAYSIA

SUMATRA

1799
((8.7))

1833
(8 9)
(8.9)

Ref:
1. Newcomb and McCann, 1987
2. Natawidjaja et al, 2006

Chlieh, 2008

NO MEGATHRUST EVENT
IN HISTORICAL RECORD
NO PALEOSEISMIC DATA

HINDIA OCEAN

HINDIA OCEAN

MEGATHRUST SEGMENTATION

EARTHQUAKE CYCLES
Meltzner, 2012

200
07

179
97&
183
33

160
00s

200
04

1450
ACEH

200
05

Sieh & Natawidjaja et al, 2008

186
61

NIAS

MENTAWAI
BATU

BATU

BATU
Natawidjaja
j j et al 2004

1935

1907 1861
(7.7) (8.5)

1800

1881
(7 9)
(7.9)

SUMATRA

130
00s

1941
(7.7)

KALIMANTAN

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

SUNDA:
NO MEGATHRUST
EVENT FOR
HUNDREDS YEARS

5-Year Interval

EARTHQUAKE CYCLES

Seismicity from 1970 to 1975

2007

1797&
1833

1300s

4 0 6.0
4.0
60
6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

200
05

186
61

2004

145
50

1600s

Sieh & Natawidjaja et al

al, 2008

Meltzner 2012
Meltzner,

Magnitude

ACEH
NIAS

MENTAWAI

BATU

1935

1800

BATU

SUNDA:
NO MEGATHRUST
EVENT FOR
HUNDREDS YEARS

Natawidjaja
j j et al 2004

5-Year Interval

Seismicity from 1975 to 1980

Magnitude

5-Year Interval

Seismicity from 1980 to 1985

Magnitude

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

5-Year Interval

5-Year Interval

Seismicity from 1985 to 1990

Seismicity from 1995 to 2000

Magnitude

5-Year Interval

Seismicity from 1990 to 1995

Magnitude

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

Magnitude

Seismicity from 1970 to 2000

Magnitude

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)
Complex faulting

Seismicity from 2000

Seismicity from 2000 to 2001

Magnitude
4 0 6.0
4.0
60

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)
Complex faulting

Annual Seismicity Increment

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Annual Seismicity Increment

Seismicity from 2000 to 2002

2002
(7.2)

Magnitude

Annual Seismicity

Seismicity from 2000 to 2003

Magnitude

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

2002
(7.2)
2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Annual Seismicity Increment

Magnitude

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Annual Seismicity Increment

Annual Seismicity

2004
(9.2)

Seismicity from 2000 to 2004

Magnitude

4 0 6.0
4.0
60
6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

2004
(9.2)

Annual Seismicity Increment

2002
(7.2)

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

2005
(8.7)

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Annual Seismicity Increment

Seismicity from 2000 to 2006

2002
(7.2)

Magnitude

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

Annual Seismicity Increment

2004
(9.2)

Seismicity from 2000 to 2005

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

2002
(7.2)

2002 iis PRECURSOR tto 2004 eventt

Annual Seismicity

Annual Seismicity

2005
(8.7)

Magnitude

Annual Seismicity

Seismicity from 2000 to 2007

Magnitude

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

2004
(9.2)

2002
(7.2)

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Annual Seismicity Increment

2005
(8.7)

2007
(8 4 & 7
(8.4
7.9
9&7
7.0)
0)

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Annual Seismicity

Seismicity from 2000 to 2008

Magnitude

Annual Seismicity

Seismicity from 2000 to 2009

Magnitude

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

2008
(7.5)

2008
(7.5)

2009

(7 7)
(7.7)

2004
(9.2)

2002
(7.2)

2005
(8.7)

2004
(9.2)
2007
(8 4 & 7
(8.4
7.9
9&7
7.0)
0)

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Annual Seismicity Increment

Annual Seismicity

2002
(7.2)

Magnitude

Annual Seismicity

(7.7)

Annual Seismicity Increment

2005
(8.7)

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

2010
2008
(7.5)

2009

(7.7)

2009

(7 7)
(7.7)

2004
(9.2)
2010
(7 8)
(7.8)
2007
(8.4 & 7.9 & 7.0)

Magnitude

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

(7 7)
(7.7)

2002
(7.2)

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Seismicity from 2000 to 2011

2010

2004
(9.2)

2007
(8 4 & 7
(8.4
7.9
9&7
7.0)
0)

Annual Seismicity Increment

Seismicity from 2000 to 2010

2008
(7.5)

2005
(8.7)

2002
(7.2)

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Annual Seismicity Increment

2005
(8.7)

2010
(7 8)
(7.8)
2007
(8.4 & 7.9 & 7.0)

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Annual Seismicity

Seismicity from 2000 to 2012

Magnitude

Annual Seismicity

Seismicity from 2000 to 2013

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

4 0 6.0
4.0
60

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

2010
2008
(7.5)

(7.7)

2010
2008
(7.5)

2009

(7.7)

(7 7)
(7.7)

2004
(9.2)

2002
(7.2)

2012

2005
(8.7)

2009

(7 7)
(7.7)

2004
(9.2)
2010

(7 8)
(7.8)
2007
(8.4 & 7.9 & 7.0)

(8.6 & 8.2)

Magnitude

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

2002
(7.2)

2005
(8.7)

2012
(8.x & 8.y)

Annual Seismicity Increment

2010
(7 8)
(7.8)
2007
(8.4 & 7.9 & 7.0)

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

Annual Seismicity Increment

FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

SEISMICITY 1960 TO 2013 (NEIC CATALOG)

Magnitude
4 0 6.0
4.0
60

2004
2007
2000

6.1 7.0
7.1 7.5
7 6 8.0
7.6
80
8.0 9.2

2012

2010
2013
2010
2008
(7.5)

1970

(7.7)

2009

(7 7)
(7.7)

ANNUAL AVERAGE ENERGY RELEASE

2004
(9.2)
2012
(8.x & 8.y)

M8

M7.7
M7
7
2005
(8.7)

2002
(7.2)

M9?

M8 8
M8.8
2010
(7 8)
(7.8)
2007
(8.4 & 7.9 & 7.0)

2000
(7.8 & 7.0)

LEWAK

C0RAL DIED IN 1390 M

cGPS
SuGAR
UJUNG
SANGGIRAN

LHOK
PAUH

LHOK DALAM
UJUNG SALANG
Lhok Pauh

C0RAL DIED IN 1440 M

1390

Lhok Pauh

1440

SEA-LEVEL HISTORY AT LHOK PAU SITE

1390

1420

1440

TRENCHINGPALEOTSUNAMIATLAMREH

EARTHQUAKE HISTORY OF LHOK PAUH

Gempa
p 1861
Gempa 1907

Marcopolo
PARA WALI

PALEOTSUNAMI1450M

PORTUGIS

Ibnu
Batuta

NAD
RI
KOLONIAL

SAMUDRA
PASAI

KESULTANAN
ACEH

PALEOTSUNAMI1390M

MAR 2005 Mw 8
8.7)
7)

WHAT WE
KNOWS ?

Sept 2009 (Mw 7

7.6)
6)

A 2009 (M
Aug
(Mw 7
7.10)
10)

Apr 2005 (Mw 7

7.1)
1)
Sept
p 2007 (Mw
(
7.0))

1998 ((Mw 6.8))

Mw 8.8
88

Sept 2007 (Mw 7.9)

Feb 2008 (Mw 7.0)

Sept 2007 (Mw 8.4)
25 Oct 2010(M 7.7)

OCTOBER
2010 (Mw 7.7)

REMAINING
SLIP AFTER
OCT. 2010

PECAH
SEKALIGUS
ATAU TIDAK?

WHAT WE
DONT:
O

THE NEXT GREAT EARTHQUAKE SOURCE

KAPAN?
Mw 8.8
88

ADA SLIP
ATAU TIDAK?
OCTOBER
2010 (Mw 7.7)

Sumatran GPS Array (SUGAR) Data of the Coseismic Displacement

of 25 Oct Earthquake

WHAT WE
KNOWS ?
TSUNAMI
EARTHQUAKE
September 2010
(Mw 7.7)
Modelling sumber
tsunami dari data
SuGAR (GPS
Kontinyu dan data
tinggi tsunami di
lapangan (Emma
Hill dkk 2011)

WHAT WE
KNOWS ?

Well fairly well mapped Active Fault + Possible Active Fault

Sibigiu Island, Tsunami heights up to 17 meters

WORST CASE: TSUNAMI SELAT SUNDA - JAKARTA

Lampung
Krakatau

Jakarta

SOURCE: Megathrust Mw 9.5

Tsunami Model by Dr. Gegar Prasetya

Coral Boulder yang terbawa oleh Tsunami

Jejak TSUNAMI PURBA NON

NON VOLCANIC Di Tanjung Lesung Ujung Kulon

Doc: Dr. Gegar Prasetya

Doc: Dr. Gegar Prasetya

It lead to a big question

g
of earthquake
q
of the Jawa Subduction zone?
What is the maximum magnitude

Where do tsunami earthquakes occur (cross section)?

fore arc high
fore-arc

T
Tr.

f
fore-arc
b i
basin

rough sea floor

tsunami E.

July 2006 (Mw 7.8)

N k i Chil
Nankai,
Chile, Al
Alaska,
k C
Cascadia,
di S
Sumatra
t etc
t
Is it actually less than M8?
How about in a much longer time??

1994 (Mw 7.8)

Seismic record for the past 30 years

cf. Satake and Tanioka (1999)

Horizontal scale varies for different zones

Cimandiri-Lembang Fault

Baribis
Fault

Semarang
fault

M 8.0

East Muria fault

Kendeng
K
d
Quaternary
Q t
Fold belt zone

Opak fault

M 9.0
90
M 7.8
M 7.5

D.H. Natawidjaja May 2007

Active Faults of Jawa

(Natawidjaja, 2006)

ConcludingRemarks
g
SundatrenchMegathrusthasbeenveryactivesince
theIOT2004
Manymajorearthquakeshasoccuredincludingthe
2005 NiasSimelue
2005Nias
Simelueevent(Mw8.7),2006
event (Mw8.7), 2006
PangandaranTsunamiearthquake(Mw7.8),2007
Bengkulu tripplets (Mw8.4, 7.9, 7.0) 2010 Mentawai
Bengkulutripplets(Mw8.4,7.9,7.0)2010Mentawai
tsunamiearthquake(Mw7.8)
StillsomeSEISMICGAPSremainingtobethenext
Still some SEISMIC GAPS remaining to be the next
majorearthquaketsunamieventsincludingthewell
defined Mentawai megathrust
definedMentawaimegathrust.
Indepthresearchcanlessensomeuncertaintiesin
earthq ake predictions b t al a s not all We al a s
earthquakepredictionsbutalwaysnotall.Wealways
facelackofdataandfaultcomplexity