Asia Times

South Asia
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KC17Df03.html

Mar 17, 2009

China-Nepal ties reach new heights

By Justin Vela

KATHMANDU - This March 10, Nepal proved itself unwilling to allow a repeat of the
mass Tibetan demonstrations that were held here from March to September 2008.
Although the energy and numbers of last year's demonstrations surrounding the
anniversary of the failed Tibetan uprising and Dalai Lama's flight into exile were
not present this year, Nepalese riot police still took forcible measures to
prevent a group of approximately 200 Tibetan demonstrators leaving the Boudha
district of Kathmandu. A British activist named Daisy Karen Wood who attempted to
dodge police and enter the Chinese Embassy carrying balloons and a Tibetan flag
was quickly arrested.

Nepal's desire to quickly suppress events that would embarrass China, its massive
northern neighbor, comes as no surprise. Ties between the two countries have been
increasing in recent months. Nepalese Premier Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda plans
to travel to Beijing in mid-April or early May and sign what is being called the
"Comprehensive Treaty" which will replace the 1960 "Peace and Friendship Treaty"
between the two countries. The signing of the treaty will be followed by China
donating US$16.4 million in economic aid and becoming Nepal's chief international
backer.

Historically, relations between Nepal and China have been relatively good. For
centuries Nepal sent tribute bearing missions to China and acknowledged its
superior regional force. The tension that did exist originated out of the
perceived threat from India and contention over Tibet, which lies just 114
kilometers from Kathmandu.

Following China's refusal to give military assistance to Nepal during the Anglo-
Nepalese war of 1814-1816, Nepal invaded Tibet in 1854. China quickly intervened
and the Treaty of Thapathali was signed between the two countries in 1856. Nepal
recognized China's supremacy in the region and agreed to provide assistance if
Tibet was ever invaded by a foreign force.

When an armed British mission arrived in Tibet from India in 1905, however, Nepal
did not intervene. Having come under the influence of British India after its loss
in the Anglo-Nepalese war, Nepal went as far as to tell China that it would assist
the Tibetans if they ever declared independence, provided it was within British
interests. When the Tibetans used the chaos of the 1911 Revolution to expel the
Chinese, Nepal broke ties with China altogether.

Relations were re-established in 1955 when the Chinese began sending soldiers into
Tibet. With the British gone from India, Nepal recognized Tibet as a sovereign
part of Chinese territory and in 1960, a year after Tibet's failed uprising and
the Dalai Lama's flight into exile, the two countries signed the Treaty of Peace
and Friendship, cementing strong ties that continue today.
Now the new "Comprehensive Treaty" will bring the two countries even closer. The
treaty puts into place agreements that China will not attack Nepal and will
respect its sovereignty, while Nepal will solidify its acceptance of the "One
China" policy. Under the policy Tibet, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are stated as
indisputable parts of Chinese territory, and Nepal will not allow anti-Chinese
activities on its soil.
Nepal proved its willingness to fulfill such promises in the days surrounding the
50th anniversary of the March 10, 1959, Tibetan Uprising. The day after a visit by
Chinese assistant foreign minister Hu Zhengyue, who arrived in Nepal last month
leading a 14-member delegation, 27 Tibetans monks were arrested in Kathmandu.
Eighteen were released and nine turned over to the United Nations and deported to
India. The streets around the two Chinese embassies in Kathmandu were also closed
off, declared "protest-free zones", and staffed with police who had orders to
arrest anyone demonstrating nearby. Additional arrests of Tibetan activists were
carried out and demonstrators were quickly confronted.

China welcomes these closer relations, with the additional support for its "One
China" policy and assistance in controlling the more than 20,000 Tibetan refugees
living in Nepal. The refugees, if they ever gave up the aging Dalai Lama's method
of peaceful negotiation, could use Nepal's difficulty to control its northern
border to launch attacks on Chinese forces in Tibet - something which Khampa
fighters did with short-lived US Central Intelligence Agency support in the late
1960s and early 1970s.

China views the establishing of closer relations with Nepal as an important step
in its competition with India for regional influence. "China now seems to view
Nepal as a vital bridge toward South Asia as part of strategy of encircling
India," said Nepal expert Sanjay Upadhya.

However, Nepal's interest in expanding relations with China is more complicated.

The country has long sought to balance the interests of India and China, the two
regional powers it lies between. Since the signing of the Indo-Nepalese Treaty of
1950, India has come to heavily dominate Nepalese politics. While the treaty
acknowledges Nepal's sovereignty, clauses in the agreement give India a greater
amount of control over Nepal than the Maoist government would prefer.

It is the overbearing influence of India that has pushed Nepal's Maoist government
decisively towards China. The shift has been so strong that Premier Prachanda went
as far as to break the long-standing tradition of Nepalese heads of state making
their first foreign trip to India, instead visiting China, ostensibly to attend
the opening ceremony of the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing.

The move toward China does not necessarily mean that Nepal is breaking ties with
India - the government rather seeks to decrease Indian influence. As Nepalese
journalist Narendra Prasad Upadhyaana said, "It is not that China is ideal. It is
only to neutralize India. Historically, socially, and culturally Nepal is closer
to India. On a political level however the Maoist government wants to avoid being
controlled by India as much as possible."

This new partnership with China comes at a time of great necessity for Nepal. The
country is facing growing insecurity which many experts in Kathmandu believe could
escalate into a crisis within the next year.

With the decade-long civil war resulting in the overthrow of the monarchy, Nepal
is facing the challenges of a newly democratic nation that has innumerable
political groups and organizations vying for a tiny amount of resources amid
growing insecurity.

The country's police and army have become polarized, with different groups
supporting the Maoists, opposition forces, and even the return of the monarchy. A
number of journalists have been attacked in the past six months. Amid simmering
discontent within the Maoist Army, which refuses to integrate with the regular
army and continues to recruit soldiers, the expected flood of returning immigrants
from jobs in the Middle East and Malaysia due to the global financial crisis makes
Nepal's immediate future seem grim.

Perhaps the most dangerous threat to the country's stability, however, is the
deteriorating situation in the southern Terai region. Members of the Tharu
indigenous group recently declared a 14-day strike, shut down roads, and engaged
in near daily clashes with police that left four people dead. The Tharus were
demanding to be recognized as distinct from the Madhesis, the ethnic group that
most indigenous people from the Terai are lumped into. Government negotiation
ended the strike only after the situation had become so tense that police were
ordered to escort petrol trucks through checkpoints and the price of fruit and
vegetables in some Kathmandu markets had nearly doubled.

Though the strike has ended, the Tarai will continue to be an issue for Nepal. The
indigenous groups demand that a new constitution divide the country into
ethnically based autonomous states, something that could spell disaster as many of
the ethnic groups in Nepal do not even acknowledge the others' right to exist.

The idea of "ethnic federalism" will not be given up easily though. According to
Dr Om Gurung, an indigenous rights leader in Kathmandu, the establishment of
ethnically based autonomous federal states was a key promise of the Maoists during
the civil war. Recently, however, the government has begun backing away from the
promise, and most experts believe that such a system would set the stage for
future conflict. Indigenous leaders are adamant, however, that Nepal's diverse
nature requires such a system.

Dangerously, after the Maoist victory in the civil war and their subsequent
international recognition, organizations in Nepal realized that agitation and
violence does indeed work as a means of achieving political goals. With 70
identified armed groups operating across Nepal, most the wings of political
organizations, the government and safety of the people are severely threatened.
How the indigenous groups will choose to assert themselves if their demands for
autonomous states are not met is still unknown.

Unless the government manages to control this growing unrest, the Maoist
revolution may in fact prove to have just been the catalyst for a longer struggle
for territory, resources, and representation in Nepal that the country will have
to face as it struggles over the course of the next year to write a new
constitution and make the difficult transition from a country at war to a country
at peace.

This is a desire that can be assisted by a closer relationship with China. Over
the past years China has proven itself willing to give large amounts of no-
strings-attached cash and support for infrastructure building to countries that
support its "One China" policy and allow it to expand its growing global
influence. This is in contrast with most Western countries which demand that aid
goes to specific projects and require greater oversight regarding where the funds
end up. While the lack of transparency in Nepal means that much of the aid will be
lost due to corruption, there is enough being offered that some effect will be
felt by the population.

Along with the $16.4 million donation, after the signing of the "Comprehensive
Treaty" China will add an additional 770 kilometers to the Kathmandu-Khasa highway
in Tibet, effectively linking Nepal with China's massive internal railway system.
Additional roads connecting Tibet and Nepal will be built and Chinese products are
increasingly replacing Indian products, something that most Nepalese appreciate
because of the lower cost. "China's products are sound to our pockets," said
Nepalese journalist Narendra Prasad Upadhyaana.
The additional access to China is also expected to stimulate economic growth in
Tibet, something that the Chinese government considers key to making the Tibetans
drop their demands for autonomy. Larger groups of tourists coming from Nepal, and
Tibetan salt being sold to Nepal, certainly may lessen some of the Tibetans' anger
towards China, but it will not quite be the salve that the Chinese government
wants it to be. As one Tibetan activist in Kathmandu said, "China does not have
human rights. Nepal is following that. They are bending over for China and letting
the Chinese control the police and treat the Tibetans here like animals."

The closer relationship with China is also not being viewed favorably by Delhi.
Earlier this month several Nepalese opposition politicians left for India,
claiming the trip was for health reasons. Their visit coincides with the presence
of Nepal's disposed King Gyanendra, who has been in India since last month for a
wedding.

Although the Indian government allowed the Maoists to overthrow the monarchy, the
new preference for China is making India reconsider its support. This is something
that the Maoists must have expected. They are, however, reacting nervously to the
opposition visit to India. "A new pact is being signed in New Delhi against the
Maoist government," said the Janadisha newspaper, a mouthpiece for the Maoist
Party.

"Delhi is encircling the Maoists," said Nepalese journalist Narendra Prasad

Upadhyaana. "India brought them to power and now suddenly they have gone to the
Chinese. And India and China still do not have cordial relations."

Justin Vela is a freelance journalist currently in Nepal.

(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)