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ADBI News
www.a dbi .o rg

2014

Managing Financial Integration and Inclusion


in ASEAN

The

pursuit of regional financial integration has


been high on the ASEAN agenda since the
Roadmap for Monetary and Financial Integration
of ASEAN was endorsed by ASEAN finance
ministers in 2003. In support of such integration,
ADBI and the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia
held an international conference in Jakarta on 34
September.
In opening remarks to the audience of senior
government officials from the Asian region,
Indonesian Finance Minister Muhamad Chatib
Basri highlighted ongoing initiatives to broaden
and deepen financial integration, including
financing for infrastructure development. ADBI
Dean Naoyuki Yoshino further highlighted the
importance of mobilizing savings to promote
financial inclusion, citing the example of
hometown investment trust funds in Japan.
For financial integration to work and contribute
to inclusive growth in ASEAN, the conference
noted the need for improved access to finance for
households and small entrepreneurs by way of
deeper and more integrated financial markets. This
will also lead eventually to increased consumption
and investment demand. Though achieving
financial integration and inclusion will not be easy
given the regions limited risk diversification,
absence of adequate liquidity, gaps in regulatory
quality, and inadequate financial infrastructure
links, it can be done with a carefully designed and
well managed financial integration and inclusion
agenda. Q

Volume 8

Number 3

CONFERENCE

ADBI Dean Naoyuki Yoshino and Indonesian Finance Minister


Muhamad Chatib Basri address conference participants in
Jakarta on 3 September
For more information on this event, please visit:
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DVHDQ.

In this issue
Managing Financial Integration and Inclusion
in ASEAN
The Great Potential of AsiaLatin America Trade
and Investment
ASEAN Economic Community Post-2015 Agenda
Global Food Prices and Business Cycle Dynamics
in an Emerging Market Economy
21st Century Challenges for Southeast Asia
What Prevents Inter-industry Labor Reallocation?
The Livelihood Effects of Industrialization on
Displaced Households Evidence from West
Bengal, India
Patents and Catch-Up
Building Effective Climate Agreements toward
Sustainable Growth
ADBI Launches Two Books on Asias Evolving
Economies
ADBI and Springer Launch Series on Development
Economics
Recent Publications
Selected Upcoming Events
Recent Working Papers
SMEs and Trade-Driven Productivity Outlook
in Asia

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The Great Potential of AsiaLatin America


Trade and Investment
Trade between Asia and Latin America has great
growth potential. Yet, realizing this potential will
require tackling key challenges, which include
increasing investment, boosting productivity, and
reducing red tape. This was the conclusion reached
at the seminar, Emerging Issues in Latin America
and the Caribbean and Asia-Pacific: Trade,
Investment and Cooperation, jointly organized by
ADBI and the Inter-American Development Bank
(IDB) in Tokyo on 15 July.
More than 80 participants attended the panel
moderated by ADBI Dean Naoyuki Yoshino.
Presentations given by ADBIs Research Director
Ganeshan Wignaraja and IDBs Antoni
Estevadeordal on cross-regional economic
relations and trends. Brazilian Ambassador Andr
Corra, Chilean Ambassador Patricio Torres, and
JICA Research Institute Professor Akio Hosono
provided additional insights and anecdotes.
The discussions highlighted the considerable
growth potential of trade between the two regions.
The 2008 global financial crisis strengthened ties
between the two regions when their traditional
trading partners declined in importance. The rapid

PANEL DISCUSSION

Panelists discuss the potential of trade and investment


between Asia and Latin America at the ADBIIDB joint
seminar on regional integration

proliferation of free trade agreements is another


example of increased integration.
Still, several challenges remain. Only a few
Latin American countries are prominent
participants of FTAs and have market-friendly
policies. Moreover, the cost of doing business can
be high and labor productivity varies across
economies in both regions. Also, political and
economic risks make private sector investments
less attractive. What is needed in both regions are
infrastructure investments and structural reforms to
reduce red tape and increase labor productivity. Q
For more information on this event, please visit:
ZZZDGELRUJHYHQWHPHUJLQJLVVXHVODFDVLDSDFLF.

ASEAN Economic Community


Post-2015 Agenda
ADBI Dean Naoyuki Yoshino and Special Adviser
to the Dean Giovanni Capannelli introduced the
results of the ADBI study, ASEAN 2030 Toward a
Borderless Economic Community, at a policy
dialogue in Singapore on 1718 July. The study,
conducted in collaboration with ADB and the
ASEAN Secretariat, makes the case for ambitious
economic integration in Southeast Asia with a view to
strengthening its role as a hub of Asian dynamism.

I n s t i t u t e

POLICY DIALOGUE

ASEAN Secretary-General Le Luong Minh


also gave a keynote speech on the challenges for
the post-2015 ASEAN agenda to an audience of
more than 120 people, including 30 high-ranking
policy makers from ASEAN countries. Q
For more information on this event (including videos),
please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/6356.asean.economic.community.dev/.

ADBI Advisory Council Meeting Held in Manila


ADBI held its semiannual Advisory Council
Meeting at ADB headquarters in Manila on
29 September. The ADBI Advisory Council
is comprised of distinguished policy makers
and scholars appointed by the ADB President
and provides advice on ADBIs strategic
direction. Current members of the Advisory
Council are Cinnamon Dornsife (United

States), Masahisa Fujita (Japan), Sebastian


Paust (Germany), Ajit Kumar Seth (India),
Bambang Permadi Soemantri Brodjonegor
(Indonesia), Yang Yao (Peoples Republic of
China), and Shang Jin Wei (Chief Economist,
ADB). ADB President Takehiko Nakao
delivered the opening remarks at the
Advisory Council Meeting.

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Global Food Prices and Business Cycle Dynamics


in an Emerging Market Economy
Oliver Holtemller, a professor at Martin-LutherUniversity Halle-Wittenberg, Germany, examined
the extent to which poor countries are affected by
price movements in the global commodity markets
at a seminar held at ADBI on 8 July.
Using the case of India, he established
empirically that global food prices influence
aggregate prices and food prices in the country.
Further, using an analytical model that included oil
and food prices over a 17-year period, Prof.
Holtemllers results suggested that a big part of
the variation in inflation in India is due to
cost-push shocks and also to global food price
shocks. He concluded that inflationary supply
shocks are important contributors to inflation

in India. Since the


monetary
authority
responds to these supply
shocks with a higher
interest rate, which
tends to slow growth,
this raises concerns
about how such output
losses can be prevented
by reducing exposure to
commodity price shocks
and thereby achieve
higher growth. Q
For more information on this seminar, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/6269.business.cycle.dynamics/.

21st Century Challenges for Southeast Asia


Ian
Coxhead,
an
economist specializing
in
the
study
of
growth,
discussed
how Southeast Asian
economic development
has made great strides,
yet remains a work in
progress at a seminar
held at ADBI on 17
July. Since the 1980s,
several countries in the
region have graduated from low to middle income
status. For the others, continued rapid growth will

SEMINAR

require policies and institutions capable of


overcoming some major challenges. These include
managing demographic and labor market
transitions as fertility declines; dealing with shocks
emanating from global economic volatility; the risk
that domestic political conflict (e.g., spurred by
economic inequality) will undermine the regions
celebrated capacity for pragmatic orthodoxy in
economic policy making; and environmental risks
associated with natural resource depletion and the
effects of global climate change. Q
For more information on this seminar, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/6306.21st.century.challenges.southeast.
asia/.

What Prevents Inter-industry Labor Reallocation?


Ayako
Kondo,
an
associate professor of
economics at Yokohama
National
University,
looked into the various
factors preventing interindustry labor reallocation
at a seminar held at
ADBI on 12 August. A
major obstacle for

SEMINAR

SEMINAR

inter-industry mobility is the reduction in earnings


after an inter-industry job change because of the
difference in required skills. Industry performance,
however, does not affect labor inflow significantly,
implying a lack of spontaneous labor reallocation
from declining to growing sectors. Q
For more information on this seminar, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/6269.business.cycle.dynamics/.
This seminar is available on ADBIs YouTube channel:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hegbTD0wyKE/.

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The Livelihood Effects of Industrialization on Displaced


Households Evidence from West Bengal, India
Saumik Paul, an associate professor at the School
of Economics, University of Nottingham
(Malaysia Campus), assessed the long-term effects
of establishing special economic zones (SEZs) on
the livelihood of displaced communities at a
seminar held at ADBI on 10 September. SEZs
have become commonplace in trade and
development policy discussions. West Bengal, in
particular, has been at the crossroad of policy
debates on the creation of SEZs and land-

grab incidents. While


attempts have been
made to revise the
optimum compensation
schemes,
little
is
known
about
the
livelihood consequences
of SEZs. Q
For more information on this seminar, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/6309.livelihood.effects.industrialization/.

Patents and Catch-Up


Akira Goto, the director
of
science
and
technology
at
the
National
Graduate
Institute for Policy
Studies (GRIPS) and an
emeritus professor at
the University of Tokyo,

DISTINGUISHED SPEAKER

presented the findings of his research in patent


law at a seminar held at ADBI on 25 September. A
specialist in the economics of innovation and
innovation policy, he focused on the technological
progress of small and medium-sized enterprises in
Asia. Q
For more information on this seminar, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/6406.goto.distinguished.speaker/.

Building Effective Climate Agreements


toward Sustainable Growth
Economic growth inevitably alters the planets
ecosystem in multiple waysdifferent activities
jointly influence the environment and bring about
varying impacts throughout the world. ADBI held
a training course in Tokyo on 78 July to support
policy makers from developing Asia in furthering
their development agenda and understanding of
climate change issues toward building effective
agreements for sustainable growth.
To properly evaluate the impact of a particular
activity on any system, it is imperative to integrate
evidence from both the natural and social sciences
as well as practical knowledge surrounding the
socioeconomic situation in the relevant regions.
Applying the same concept, it follows that
broad-based and crosscutting strategy and policy
initiatives are paramount to the successful and
sustainable development of member countries in
the Asian region. Building capacity and precedent
on climate change issues is a critical step in
ensuring that necessary policies are implemented.
4

SEMINAR

TRAINING COURSE

The participants of the training course, mid- to


high-level policy makers from developing Asian
countries, were able to broaden and update their
climate change knowledge and gain a better
understanding of both the institutional and
theoretical aspects of climate negotiations. The
training course also increased their awareness of
the greenhouse gas emissions situation in their
home countries and globally. The course further
provided a common platform for networking and
sharing discussion points among policy makers
involved in climate negotiations in the region. Q
For more information on this training course, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/6351.climate.negotiations.sustainable.
growth/.

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D e v e l o p m e n t

ADBI Launches Two Books


on Asias Evolving Economies

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I n s t i t u t e

BOOK LAUNCH

Dean Naoyuki Yoshino introduces the books launched at the


seminar on 17 September

Toward a Borderless Economic Community at a


seminar on Evolving Asian Economies in Tokyo
on 17 September. The books examine ASEANs
prospects and challenges as an integrated
economy as well as its relations with the large
and competing emerging economies of the
Peoples Republic of China and India. The
books further explore the rise of these economies
as potential drivers for a balanced, sustainable,
and resilient Asia and the world. ADBI Dean
Naoyuki Yoshino, former Dean Masahiro Kawai,
Research Director Ganeshan Wignaraja, and
Special Adviser to the Dean Giovanni Capannelli
gave presentations on related topics with
comments by regional experts. Q

ADBI launched the books ASEAN, PRC, and


India: The Great Transformation and ASEAN 2030:

For more information on this event, please visit:


www.adbi.org/preview/event/6379.evolving.asian.
economies/.

ADBI and Springer Launch Series


on Development Economics
ADBI Dean Naoyuki Yoshino and Springer
Editorial Director Nicholas Philipson signed an
agreement establishing the ADB Institute Series on
Development Economics in Tokyo on 11 August.
The book series aims to identify and propose
solutions using a multidisciplinary approach to
important development issues facing economies in
Asia and the Pacific. It will focus among others on
infrastructure development; financial inclusion,
regulation, and education; housing policy; central
and local government relations; macroeconomic
policy; and governance. This is ADBIs second
book series, the other being the ADB Institute
Series on Asian Economic Integration and
Cooperation with Edward Elgar. Q

BOOK SERIES

ADBI and Springer sign an agreement for a new series on


development economics

Asia Pathways posts published


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Can President-elect Joko Widodo Transform
Indonesias Economy?
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View all Asia Pathways posts at www.asiapathways-adbi.org/.

A s i a n

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Recent Publications
ASEAN 2030: Toward a Borderless Economic Community
This book investigates long-term development issues for ASEAN members and finds that
by 2030, ASEAN has the potential to reach the average quality of life enjoyed today in
advanced economies. Q
To download a copy of this report, please visit:
www.adbi.org/book/2014/07/18/6357.asean.2030.borderless.economic.community/.

ASEAN, PRC, and India: The Great Transformation


This book focuses on the prospects and challenges for growth and transformation of the
regions major and rapidly growing emerging economies to 2030 and examines the drivers
of growth and development in the economies and the factors that will affect the quality of
that development. Q
To download a copy of this report, please visit:
www.adbi.org/book/2014/09/17/6360.asean.prc.india.transformation/.

Disaster Risk Management in Asia and the Pacific


This book uses two international frameworksthe Millennium Development Goals and
the Hyogo Framework for Action, a program focused on disaster risk managementto
study the key trends in the region in terms of disaster incidence, sources of vulnerability,
and social and economic challenges. Q
For more information on this book, please visit:
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Reform of the International Monetary System: An Asian Perspective


This volume brings together studies that address aspects of reform of the international
monetary system, many with a specific focus on Asia and others that tackle the
implications of the eurozone crisis as well as cooperation of regional and global safety
nets. Q
For more information on this book, please visit:
www.adbi.org/book/2014/09/25/6390.reform.international.monetary.system/.

Asian Development Review


The September issue of Asian Development Review includes topics such as trade
implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on Asian countries, productivity spillovers
from foreign direct investment in the Peoples Republic of China, and fiscal policy
implications of the trade-off between development and security spending in Afghanistan. Q
To download a copy of this issue, please visit:
www.adbi.org/journals/2014/09/26/6449.asian.dev.review.vol.31.no.2/.

E-newsline Brings Asia to Your Inbox


For a daily wrap-up of development news and events
in Asia, subscribe free to ADBIs e-newsline.
Concise summaries of news, opinions, and editorials

from an Asian perspective are delivered daily to


your inbox. To learn more about e-newsline and to
subscribe, please visit: www.adbi.org/e-newsline/.

A s i a n

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Selected Upcoming Events

1011
November

11
November

5
December

SME Productivity in Asia: Getting the Policies Right (Kuala Lumpur)


This workshop will help develop the capacity of government officials to design effective policies and programs to raise
the productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Distinguished Speaker Seminar: Masahiko AokiA Revisionist View of Comparative PRCJapan Economic
Histories: Based on a Game Model (Tokyo)
In this seminar, Masahiko Aoki will discuss comparatively the transitions in the Peoples Republic of China and Japan
from a pre-modern state to a modern state through the Xinhai Revolution and the Meiji Restoration, respectively.

ADBI Annual Conference on Outlook and Financing Requirements for Asian Growth (Tokyo)
This conference aims to take stock of recent developments in the financing of Asian growth, with a focus on SME
finance and trade issues, infrastructure investment and finance in Asia, and macroeconomic and financial policy.

Recent Working Papers


Financial Stability and Financial Inclusion

From Global Factory to Global Mall: East Asias


Changing Trade Composition

Authors: Jose Anson, Mauro Boffa, and Matthias Helble

Authors: Matthias Helble and Boon-Loong Ngiang

Developing economies seek to promote financial inclusion, i.e., greater


access to financial services for low-income households and firms, as part
of their overall strategies for economic and financial development. This
raises the question of whether financial stability and financial inclusion
are, broadly speaking, substitutes or complements. In other words, does
the move toward greater financial inclusion increase or decrease financial
stability? This paper contributes to the literature on this subject by
estimating the effects of various measures of financial inclusion (together
with some control variables) on some measures of financial stability.

This paper studies how East Asias trade composition and orientation have
changed over the past decade and analyzes the implications for the region and
beyond. Over the last two decades there has been an emergence of regional
and global supply chains, in which production is divided into production
stages or tasks across the most competitive locations. East Asia has been the
most successful region in the world in building up or joining regional and
global supply chains, having been described as Factory Asia. Introducing a
new and simple analytical tool, this paper shows that over the past decade East
Asia has successfully consolidated its role as the Global Factory.

Read Working Paper 488 at www.adbi.org/working-paper/2014/


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Read Working Paper 496 at www.adbi.org/working-paper/2014/


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Trade Policy and Growth in Asia

Three Arrows of Abenomics and the Structural Reform


of Japan: Inflation Targeting Policy of the Central Bank,
Fiscal Consolidation, and Growth Strategy

Authors: Masahiro Kawai and Ganeshan Wignaraja


This paper examines the changing relationship between trade policy,
production networks, and economic growth in Asia. It traces East
Asias rise to the coveted Factory Asia league with rapid growth
over several decades through trade policy anchored on
outward-oriented industrialization strategies, including a voluntary
liberalization approach under the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC) forum and a multilateral approach under the World Trade
Organization (WTO) system. It explores the implications of various
stresses to the performance of Factory Asia such as the consequences
of the global financial crisis, the risk of protectionism, the persistence
of residual behind-the-border regulatory barriers, the failure to
conclude ambitious WTO multilateral trade negotiations, and the
relative exclusion of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Authors: Naoyuki Yoshino and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary


Abenomics refers to the economic policies advocated by Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe. Abenomics has three arrows: (i) aggressive
monetary policy, (ii) fiscal consolidation, and (iii) growth strategy. The
Japanese economy faces an aging population and expanding social welfare
expenses. No other country has experienced Japans rapid growth of retired
people. This paper explains these three aspects of Abenomics and the state
of the Japanese economy, and examines what remedies may be required if
Japan is to recover from its long-term deflation. The authors look at such
proposals as hometown investment trust funds and postponing the
retirement age through the introduction of a flexible wage rate system.

Read Working Paper 495 at www.adbi.org/working-paper/2014/


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Read Working Paper 492 at www.adbi.org/working-paper/2014/


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Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy:


An Asian Stock Market Perspective

Economic Implications of Deeper South Asian


Southeast Asian Integration: A CGE Approach

Authors: Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary,


Ali Hassanzadeh, and Ahmad Danu Prasetyo

Authors: Ganeshan Wignaraja, Peter Morgan,


Michael Plummer, and Fan Zhai

This paper estimates the response of Asian stock market prices to exogenous
monetary policy shocks using a vector error correction model. In this paper,
monetary policy transmits to stock market price through three routes: money
by itself, exchange rate, and inflation. The results point to the fact that stock
prices increase persistently in response to an exogenous easing monetary
policy. Variance decomposition results show that the forecast error variance
of the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index can be explained by exogenous
shocks to the US dollarIranian rial exchange rate, while this ratio for
exogenous shocks to Iranian real gross domestic product was much lower.
The authors argue that such evidence can be accounted for by an
endogenous response of the stock prices to the monetary policy shocks.

South Asian and Southeast Asian economic integration via increased trade
flows has been rising significantly over the past two decades, but the level of
trade continues to be relatively low. This underperformance has been due to
both policy-related variablesrelatively high tariff and non-tariff barriers
and high trade costs due to inefficient hard and soft infrastructure (costly
transport links and problems related to trade facilitation). The goal of this paper
is to estimate the potential gains from South AsianSoutheast Asian economic
integration using an advanced computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.
They are estimated to be large, particularly for South Asia, assuming that the
policy- and infrastructure-related variables that increase trade costs are reduced
via economic cooperation and investment in connectivity.

Read Working Paper 497 at www.adbi.org/working-paper/2014/


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Read Working Paper 494 at www.adbi.org/working-paper/2014/


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A s i a n

D e v e l o p m e n t

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SMEs and Trade-Driven


Productivity Outlook in Asia
While Asias growth is alleviating poverty and
increasing the number of middle-income countries
in developing Asia, inequality has been widening
and labor productivity has been slowing in the
region since the 2008 global financial crisis. This
suggests a surging risk of the middle-income trap
in many Asian countries. Given that small and
medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) constitute more
than half of national workforces in Asia, their
potential contribution to reversing the deceleration
of labor productivity and inequality needs to be
examined.
To address these crucial issues, a policy
dialogue was held to introduce the joint
ADBIADB project SMEs and Trade-Driven

POLICY DIALOGUE

Productivity to the ADBI Advisory Council


members and senior government officials at ADB
headquarters in Manila on 30 September. The
policy dialogue discussed the productivity
enhancement opportunities provided by trade and
economic integration on the development of
SMEs. It featured a presentation on the background
and initial findings of the project, followed by
discussions focusing on possible solutions for
enhancing SME trade-driven productivity in Asia.
In attendance were senior officials of agencies
in charge of SME and trade issues from Indonesia,
Kazakhstan, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. Q
For more information on this event, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/6411.sme.trade.productivity/.

ADBI Online

ADBI News
Publisher: Yasuro Narita

ADBI News reports quarterly on the activities of the Asian


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