2015 to be toughest year since recession:

Minton Beddoes
2015 will be the toughest year for global business since the recession of 2008-09. Thats
according to Zanny Minton Beddoes, Business Affairs Editor at The Economist.
Minton Beddoes says to expect turbulence in share prices, interest rates and currencies in 2015.
Its not a grim prediction, she says. It is a prediction for more volatility.
Can big business stomach it?
The U.S. economy is relatively strong approaching the New Year. A surge in consumer
spending boosted the economy's growth rate to 3.9% last quarter and its strongest six-month
performance in more than a decade. Stocks continue to set new record highs. And after a
blockbuster November jobs report released on Friday, 2014 will see the strongest job growth
since 1999.
But at the same time, the rest of the leading global economies are struggling. Japans economy is
now officially in a recession and Europe is teetering on the brink of one. Chinas economy is still
growing but at a much slower pace after being one of the main drivers of the global economy
over the past decade. Russia is getting hit by lower oil prices and economic sanctions levied by
the U.S. and European Union as the conflict in Ukraine continues.
The other parts of the rich world [are] not doing very well, with monetary policy going in the
opposite direction. Minton Beddoes says the emerging world looks sluggish at best.
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Global economic growth has been sluggish since 2012. Slow growth isnt always good for
businesses but in this environment it has been. U.S. corporations are buying back shares of their
own companies at the fastest pace since the financial crisis. Stock buybacks hit a record $500
billion by mid-year. At the same time, sky high profits have boosted merger and acquisition
activity. Deals are likely to top $3 trillion in 2014.
At the same time all this macro volatility is taking place, Minton Beddoes points to a huge
amount of disruption going on at the micro level coming from the digital revolution which she
says is accelerating. Disruptive innovation is a total clich but its really happening and its
happening in more and more industries."
Companies like Uber, Airbnb, Kickstarter and Rent the Runway have shaken up big business.
They are part of a class of tech start ups that can upend an entire industry. Minton Beddoes says
a relatively stable global economy has been able to absorb this digital revolution so far but that
may change in 2015.

If youre a CEO, you have to be rethinking how you are going to deal with the new digital
environment," she says. "Youve been able to do that against a fairly placid macro economic
backdrop, now you have to deal with volatility both above and below."