December 5, 2014
Automobile Sector
Bharat Gianani
+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6817
bharat.gianani@angelbroking.com
Nov-14
Nov-13
yoy%
Aug-14
mom%
YTD FY15
YTD FY14
yoy%
194,420
173,607
12.0
198,365
(2.0)
1,449,791
1,323,879
9.5
1,464,596
1,341,827
9.1
1,601,482
(8.5)
12,165,813
10,603,884
14.7
Commercial vehicles
48,819
47,782
2.2
53,496
(8.7)
406,025
471,157
(13.8)
MHCV
16,478
10,733
53.5
17,915
(8.0)
138,373
126,565
9.3
LCV
32,886
37,365
(12.0)
36,139
(9.0)
271,762
346,744
(21.6)
Tractors
19,639
29,007
(32.3)
40,461
(51.5)
227,821
245,626
(7.2)
Three wheelers
61,383
44,053
39.3
63,826
(3.8)
476,622
401,649
18.7
Tata Motors
Tata Motors performance improves in
both,
the
passenger
and
the
commercial vehicle segments
TTMTs sales improved in November 2014, reporting its first month of growth
after a gap of two years. Overall sales grew marginally by 2% yoy to 41,720
units.
Growth was led by the PV segment which grew in strong double digits by
16% yoy. An encouraging response for the recently launched Zest boosted
sales.
TTMT aims to launch the new compact car Bolt in 4QFY2015, which would
further improve its PV sales.
Nov-14
Nov-13
yoy%
Oct-14
mom%
YTD FY15
YTD FY14
yoy%
Commercial vehicles
M&HCV
9,452
6,823
38.5
10,352
(8.7)
76,277
72,879
4.7
LCV
15,954
19,993
(20.2)
16,897
(5.6)
132,120
196,702
(32.8)
Total CV
25,406
26,816
(5.3)
27,249
(6.8)
208,397
269,581
(22.7)
Passenger cars
10,286
7,910
30.0
9,594
7.2
63,096
73,400
(14.0)
1,735
2,466
(29.6)
1,917
(9.5)
17,091
20,844
(18.0)
Total PV
12,021
10,376
15.9
11,511
4.4
80,187
94,244
(14.9)
37,427
37,192
0.6
38,760
(3.4)
288,584
363,825
(20.7)
Export Sales
4,293
3,671
16.9
4,059
5.8
32,668
33,418
(2.2)
Total Sales
41,720
40,863
2.1
42,819
(2.6)
321,252
397,243
(19.1)
December 5, 2014
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
(50.0)
Mar-13
0
Jan-13
(40.0)
Nov-12
10,000
May-14
(30.0)
20,000
Mar-14
(20.0)
30,000
Jan-14
(10.0)
40,000
Nov-13
0.0
50,000
(%)
20.0
10.0
0.0
(10.0)
(20.0)
(30.0)
(40.0)
(50.0)
(60.0)
(70.0)
(80.0)
Sep-13
60,000
Volume(LHS)
Jul-13
(units)
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Nov-12
(%)
10.0
May-13
70,000
Mar-13
Volume(LHS)
(units)
Jan-13
Ashok Leyland
Company outperforms peers on back of
higher MHCV mix
Ashok Leyland outpaced peers across the CV segment reporting a 44% yoy
growth in sales at 7,732 units.
The outperformance was mainly led by the MHCV segment, with sales
improving by a robust 92% yoy. Economic recovery and improving fleet
operator sentiment continue to boost the MHCV segment. Sales growth was
also boosted by a low base of the corresponding period of last year.
Nov-14
Nov-13
yoy%
Oct-14
mom%
YTD FY15
YTD FY14
yoy%
Commercial vehicles
5,204
2715
91.7
5,838
(10.9)
44,184
37,628
17.4
SCV (Dost)
2,528
2660
(5.0)
2,537
(0.4)
17,269
19,391
(10.9)
Total CV
7,732
5,375
43.9
8,375
(7.7)
61,453
57,019
7.8
(units)
12,000
(%)
100
80
10,000
60
8,000
40
6,000
20
0
4,000
(20)
2,000
(40)
(60)
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Maruti Suzuki
Double digit growth in both domestic as
well as exports
December 5, 2014
Maruti Suzukis sales grew strongly by 20% to 110,147 units led by improved
consumer sentiments.
Domestic sales grew by a robust 17% yoy. Growth was once again led by the
compact segment (18% growth) on back of strong demand for the Celerio and
Dzire models. The van segment (Omni, Eeco) also continued with its strong run
(52% growth), thereby contributing to the overall growth.
The recently launched Ciaz continues to receive good response from the
customers, clocking sales of 5,232 units for the month under review.
Export sales grew strongly by 53% yoy with the company tapping new markets in
Africa and Latin America.
Nov-14
Nov-13
yoy%
Oct-14
mom%
YTD FY15
YTD FY14
yoy%
37,746
38040
(0.8)
35,753
5.6
275,220
281,754
(2.3)
39,328
33,408
17.7
38,491
2.2
337,518
279,543
20.7
5,232
200
2516.0
6,345
(17.5)
13,754
2,928
369.7
82,306
71,648
14.9
80,589
2.1
626,492
564,225
11.0
5,515
5840
(5.6)
6,027
(8.5)
43,911
39,480
11.2
12,203
8021
52.1
10,453
16.7
85,020
64,774
31.3
Total domestic PV
100,024
85,510
17.0
97,069
3.0
755,423
668,480
13.0
10,123
6630
52.7
6,904
46.6
80,489
70,767
13.7
110,147
92,140
19.5
103,973
5.9
835,912
739,247
13.1
Export
Total sales
Source: Company, Angel Research
(units)
(%)
1,40,000
70.0
1,20,000
60.0
50.0
1,00,000
40.0
80,000
30.0
60,000
20.0
10.0
40,000
0.0
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
(20.0)
Jan-13
(10.0)
0
Nov-12
20,000
December 5, 2014
Tractor demand declined steeply by 34% yoy. Poor sentiment due to deficient
monsoon coupled with correction of dealer inventory led to the fall in sales.
Automotive sales declined 13% yoy on account of sluggish demand for both
the key segments, viz utility vehicle (UV)s and LCVs. M&M continues to lose
market share in the UV space due to lack of new products. Further, the LCV
industry has been sluggish, thereby exerting pressure on the volumes.
Nov-14
Nov-13
yoy%
Oct-14
mom%
YTD FY15
YTD FY14
yoy%
Passenger vehicles
13,765
16771
(17.9)
19,254
(28.5)
134,773
150,186
(10.3)
4W pick-up
12,748
13186
(3.3)
14,812
(13.9)
107,637
115,738
(7.0)
5,005
5861
(14.6)
5,678
(11.9)
39,162
41,269
(5.1)
582
443
31.4
534
9.0
5,464
5,291
3.3
32,100
36,261
(11.5)
40,278
(20.3)
287,036
312,484
(8.1)
2,192
2993
(26.8)
2,502
(12.4)
18,312
18,594
(1.5)
Total automotive
34,292
39,254
(12.6)
42,780
(19.8)
305,348
331,078
(7.8)
Tractors - domestic
14,207
22343
(36.4)
30,800
(53.9)
174,360
188,501
(7.5)
1,126
776
45.1
1,107
1.7
8,587
6,722
27.7
Total tractors
15,333
23,119
(33.7)
31,907
(51.9)
182,947
195,223
(6.3)
Total sales
49,625
62,373
(20.4)
74,687
(33.6)
488,295
526,301
(7.2)
Three-wheelers
MTBL
Total domestic
Exports
Tractors - exports
30,000
20.0
10.0
25,000
10.0
0.0
20,000
0.0
(10.0)
15,000
(10.0)
(20.0)
10,000
(20.0)
(30.0)
5,000
(30.0)
(40.0)
(40.0)
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
30.0
20.0
Jan-14
5,000
40.0
35,000
(%)
50.0
Nov-13
10,000
40,000
30.0
Sep-13
15,000
40.0
Volume (LHS)
Jul-13
20,000
(units)
45,000
May-13
25,000
(%)
50.0
Mar-13
Jan-13
Volume (LHS)
Nov-12
(units)
30,000
Bajaj Auto
Exports remain strong; company
continues to underperform in the
domestic market
December 5, 2014
Bajaj Autos overall sales remained flat at 309,259 units. The export volumes
continue to remain strong, growing by 24% yoy for the month under review.
This is the second time that export sales have surpassed domestic volumes
during the current fiscal. The domestic segment continued to lag, declining by
19% yoy during the month under review.
3W sales grew strongly by 48% yoy, led by opening of new permits in the
domestic market and low base of the corresponding period of last year.
Nov-14
Nov-13
yoy%
Oct-14
mom%
YTD FY15
YTD FY14
yoy%
261,948
278,703
(6.0)
336,923
(22.3)
2,372,882
2,336,467
1.6
47,311
31,888
48.4
49,094
(3.6)
366,406
300,052
22.1
Total Sales
309,259
310,591
(0.4)
386,017
(19.9)
2,739,288
2636519
3.9
143,526
176,860
(18.8)
227,470
(36.9)
1,453,948
1,601,173
(9.2)
165,733
133,731
23.9
158,547
4.5
1,285,340
1,035,346
24.1
50,000
(20.0)
(25.0)
(%)
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
(10.0)
(20.0)
(30.0)
(40.0)
50,000
20,000
10,000
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-14
Sep-14
(15.0)
Jul-14
1,00,000
May-14
30,000
(10.0)
Mar-14
(5.0)
1,50,000
Jan-14
2,00,000
Nov-13
40,000
Sep-13
0.0
Jul-13
2,50,000
May-13
5.0
Mar-13
10.0
3,00,000
Jan-13
3,50,000
Nov-12
Volume (LHS)
(units)
60,000
Mar-13
Jan-13
Volume (LHS)
(units)
4,00,000
Hero MotoCorp
Sales grow marginally
Hero Motocorp has ventured in the Colombian market, introducing six new
models which are expected to boost export volumes.
Nov-14
Nov-13
yoy%
Oct-14
mom%
YTD FY15
YTD FY14
yoy%
547,413
530,530
3.2
575,056
(4.8)
4,530,121
4,131,443
9.6
December 5, 2014
(units)
7,00,000
(%)
35.0
30.0
6,00,000
25.0
5,00,000
20.0
4,00,000
15.0
3,00,000
5.0
10.0
0.0
2,00,000
(5.0)
1,00,000
(10.0)
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
(15.0)
Nov-12
TVS Motor
Outperforms the 2W industry led by
success of new products
TVS Motors sales grew by a robust 36% yoy growth to 220,046 units, led by
continued market share gains across segments.
2W sales grew by a healthy 36%, led by the scooter segment (which grew sharply
by 62%) due to continued success of the Jupiter and the recently launched Scooty
Zest. The motorcycle segment grew by 41% on back of good demand for the Star
City series. The moped segment continued with its double digit growth trend,
reporting a 12% yoy growth.
3W sales grew at a robust rate of 44% yoy, driven by strong growth in domestic as
well as export markets.
Total exports continued with the strong momentum, posting growth of 55% yoy led
by growth across the 2W and 3W segments.
Nov-14
Nov-13
yoy%
Oct-14
mom%
YTD FY15
YTD FY14
yoy%
Motorcycle
86,424
61,471
40.6
90,779
(4.8)
669,237
539,535
24.0
Mopeds
62,332
55,802
11.7
70,640
(11.8)
525,187
473,551
10.9
62,223
38,331
62.3
70,571
(11.8)
487,678
299,157
63.0
210,979
155,604
35.6
231,990
(9.1)
1,682,102
1,312,243
28.2
Scooters
Total two-wheelers
Three-wheelers
9,067
6,304
43.8
9,054
0.1
71,054
53,392
33.1
Total Sales
220,046
161,908
35.9
241,044
(8.7)
1,753,156
1,365,635
28.4
180,831
136,570
32.4
206,189
(12.3)
1,477,847
1,163,842
27.0
39,215
25,338
54.8
34,855
12.5
275,309
201,793
36.4
December 5, 2014
(%)
50.0
10,000
(20.0)
(40.0)
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Nov-12
(10.0)
0.0
20,000
Nov-14
0.0
Sep-14
20,000
20.0
30,000
Jul-14
10.0
May-14
40,000
40.0
40,000
Mar-14
20.0
60.0
50,000
Jan-14
60,000
80.0
Nov-13
30.0
(%)
100.0
60,000
Sep-13
80,000
70,000
Jul-13
40.0
May-13
1,00,000
Volume (LHS)
(units)
80,000
Mar-13
Jan-13
Volume (LHS)
(units)
1,20,000
Eicher Motors
CV sales recover on improved economic
outlook and low base; 2W growth
strong on back of robust demand
The 2W segment (Royal Enfield) grew strongly by 52% yoy to 27,542 units,
driven by capacity expansion at the new Chennai plant. Royal Enfield has
witnessed strong demand traction with the current waiting period at 4-6
months despite increase in production capacity.
Nov-14
Nov-13
yoy%
Oct-14
mom%
YTD CY15
YTD CY14
yoy%
1,656
1,526
8.5
1,893
(12.5)
20,601
22,786
(9.6)
Eicher HD
610
333
83.2
617
(1.1)
6,925
6,318
9.6
Eicher Buses
512
385
33.0
542
(5.5)
8,968
8,639
3.8
Volvo Trucks
118
34
247.1
32
268.8
777
577
34.7
2,896
2,278
27.1
3,084
(6.1)
37,271
38,320
(2.7)
27,542
18,131
51.9
26,039
5.8
273,957
158,808
72.5
Eicher LMD
Total
Two-wheelers (Royal Enfield)
Source: Company, Angel Research
December 5, 2014
28,000
20.0
27,000
15.0
26,000
(5.0)
23,000
(10.0)
22,000
(15.0)
21,000
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
40
24,000
20
0
Mar-14
1,000
60
25,000
Nov-14
0.0
80
Oct-14
5.0
2,000
100
Sep-14
10.0
Volume (LHS)
Aug-14
3,000
29,000
25.0
Jul-14
4,000
30.0
Jun-14
5,000
May-14
Volume (LHS)
Apr-14
Outlook
Better economic growth (two consecutive quarters of >5% GDP growth) and
positive consumer sentiment has resulted in marked improvement in automotive
sales over the last two quarters. The passenger segment (passenger cars and 2W)
has surged in double digits in YTD FY2015 (April 2014 to November 2014) and
we expect continued improvement going forward. The CV space also reported its
first month of volume growth in November 2014 after a gap of two years, led by
sharp improvement in MHCV volumes. With strong momentum in MHCVs and
recovery in LCV volumes, we expect the CV recovery to accelerate further in
FY2016.
Amongst our universe, we prefer Maruti Suzuki due to recovery in the PV space
and on likely gains in market share given its strong product pipeline. We like Tata
Motors for the strong performance of JLR and turnaround in the domestic business.
In the mid cap space we continue to prefer Ashok Leyland as it is a pure MHCV
play and would be huge beneficiary of turaround in the MHCV volumes. We also
like Eicher Motors due to huge demand potential and capacity expansion at Royal
Enfield and strong growth in VECV due to turnaround of the CV industry.
Reco
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
CMP
TP
FY15E
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
ROE (%)
EV/EBIDTA (x)
FY14-16E
54
60
13,567
17,667
64.5
16.6
2.9
2.6
4.5
15.8
17.3
9.7
2,620
23,053
27,984
20.6
16.6
6.7
5.5
30.4
33.3
13.9
11.0
18.6
3,217
3,462
28,387
33,935
22.4
17.7
9.2
8.0
41.2
45.2
14.9
11.4
31.4
Maruti Suzuki
Accumulate
3,408
3,750
50,178
62,256
26.4
17.5
4.2
3.6
15.9
20.6
14.4
9.9
42.9
M&M^
Accumulate
1,266
1,428
39,758
44,615
17.1
14.8
2.8
2.4
17.4
17.7
12.4
10.9
3.6
Tata Motors
Accumulate
528
595
2,52,586
3,06,563
11.2
10.2
2.2
1.8
19.1
17.6
5.5
4.8
6.7
TVS Motors
Neutral
254
10,521
12,856
29.8
16.9
7.1
5.3
23.7
31.5
18.7
12.0
65.7
15,416 16,805
11,916
16,150
36.2
22.9
12.1
8.6
33
37.6
21.3
13.7
65.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on December 4, 2014; ^ valuation multiple adjusted for the value of subsidiaries;
December ending
company
December 5, 2014
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Broking relationship
with company covered
Ashok Leyland
No
No
No
No
Tata Motors
No
No
No
No
Maruti Suzuki
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Bajaj Auto
No
No
No
No
Hero MotoCorp
No
No
No
No
TVS Motor
No
No
No
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
December 5, 2014
10
6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai- 400 093. Tel: (022) 39357800
Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
VP-Research, Pharmaceutical
sarabjit@angelbroking.com
Vaibhav Agrawal
VP-Research, Banking
vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Amarjeet Maurya
Analyst
amarjeet.maurya@angelbroking.com
Bharat Gianani
Analyst
bharat.gianani@angelbroking.com
Shrenik Gujrathi
Analyst
shrenik.gujrathi@angelbroking.com
Umesh Matkar
Analyst
umesh.matkar@angelbroking.com
Twinkle Gosar
Analyst
gosar.twinkle@angelbroking.com
Tejas Vahalia
Research Editor
tejas.vahalia@angelbroking.com
Siddarth Bhamre
siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com
Sameet Chavan
Technical Analyst
sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth
Associates (Derivatives)
sneha.seth@angelbroking.com
Mayuresh Joshi
VP - Institutional Sales
mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com
Meenakshi Chavan
Dealer
meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com
Gaurang Tisani
Assistant Manager
gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com
Production Incharge
dilipm.patel@angelbroking.com
Production Team:
Dilip Patel
CSO & Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 93. Tel: (022) 3083 7700. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd: BSE Cash: INB010996539 / BSE F&O: INF010996539, CDSL Regn. No.: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 2004, PMS Regn. Code: PM/INP000001546, NSE Cash: INB231279838 /
NSE F&O: INF231279838 / NSE Currency: INE231279838, MCX Stock Exchange Ltd: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500. Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd.: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn. No.: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn. No.: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302.
December 5, 2014
11