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The document summarizes Robert Kaplan's analysis of the conflict over the South China Sea. Kaplan argues that the conflict is driven purely by power politics, as countries seek to assert control over strategic waters for economic and military advantages. He notes that half of global shipping and a third of maritime traffic passes through the South China Sea, along with huge oil and gas reserves, giving countries strong incentives to dominate the region. However, Kaplan says "humanists" see little moral purpose to the conflict beyond countries flexing their growing economic and military muscles. China in particular has taken an aggressive stance in asserting its vast territorial claims in the South China Sea, reminiscent of the United States' past dominance over the Caribbean.
The document summarizes Robert Kaplan's analysis of the conflict over the South China Sea. Kaplan argues that the conflict is driven purely by power politics, as countries seek to assert control over strategic waters for economic and military advantages. He notes that half of global shipping and a third of maritime traffic passes through the South China Sea, along with huge oil and gas reserves, giving countries strong incentives to dominate the region. However, Kaplan says "humanists" see little moral purpose to the conflict beyond countries flexing their growing economic and military muscles. China in particular has taken an aggressive stance in asserting its vast territorial claims in the South China Sea, reminiscent of the United States' past dominance over the Caribbean.
The document summarizes Robert Kaplan's analysis of the conflict over the South China Sea. Kaplan argues that the conflict is driven purely by power politics, as countries seek to assert control over strategic waters for economic and military advantages. He notes that half of global shipping and a third of maritime traffic passes through the South China Sea, along with huge oil and gas reserves, giving countries strong incentives to dominate the region. However, Kaplan says "humanists" see little moral purpose to the conflict beyond countries flexing their growing economic and military muscles. China in particular has taken an aggressive stance in asserting its vast territorial claims in the South China Sea, reminiscent of the United States' past dominance over the Caribbean.
Robert Kaplan In one sentence, this reading tells us that the conflict in the South China Sea is nothing but a power play.
warships (potential threats) are slower in water
it presents a "stopping power" to conflict it is an "impediment to invasion" because even with a naval force, it is difficult to occupy "hostile shore" (water that is not its own)
Kaplan makes this point by illustrating the difference
between the land-related wars of the past, and the waterrelated conflict at present: where the issues that gave rise to land-conflict before were humanist issues like slavery and a general desire of countries to protect their rights, now, the water-war is a bigger deal, and is all about countries (particularly China) wanting to exercise whatever power theyve got in an attempt to advance their own economic prowess.
An example is the Taiwan Strait:
The conflict is thus framed as a portrait of Realism. To
put it in perspective, realism, as an artistic/literary movement, is exactly what it sounds like, in that it reflects human conflict and experience exactly as it is at face value, without the abstract embellishments of moral struggles and fighting for rights.
Other examples are the maritime distances between
Japan and Korea, South Korea and China, Japan's Ryuku Islands and China, Chinas Hainan Island and Vietnam.
So applied to this water-war, Kaplan is implying that
there is really nothing more to the conflict right now than the desire of the countries to outdo each other by using whatever military and economic prowess they have to boost their status as international powers by means of a rightful claim to the South China Sea. THE HUMANIST DILEMMA In a nutshell, the humanist dilemma is exactly what we just said that there is nothing grounding the desire of countries to fight over the water except a thirst for power. Humanists wouldnt like that because such a fight is purposeless, and does nothing to advance humanity or its sense of morality. Kaplan expounds on this point by telling a few stories:
It is a hundred miles wide, but still four times wider than
the English Channel (across which the Allied invasion came). So even if China engages Taiwan in a war, it would be difficult to occupy the country because of the "one hundred miles of water between it and the mainland"
Then, he talks about the interest in the South China Sea
in particular: So imagine daw South East Asia as a cluster of countries that want to "advance their perceived territorial rights beyond their own shores", particularly, at the "geographical meeting place of all these states, which is the South China Sea. China, has also decided to come in as the bully country, in that it is trying to claim the area by pushing its navy out that way (the Fist Island Chain in the Western Pacific). So why all the fuss over it? The South China Sea's credentials:
First, he talks about why anyone would care so much
about water, to the point that they fight over it the way they do:
So the wars of the past mostly happened in Europe, over
its dry land. The conflict now, however, is happening in East Asia, over its waters.
Why fight over water? For the following reasons:
it has the power to protect territory
it is a "barrier to aggression it creates clearly defined borders it has the potential to reduce conflict"
it is the mass of connective economic tissue
where the global sea routes coalesce it is the heart of Eurasia's navigable rimland more than half the world's annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through there, as well as a third of all maritime traffic worldwide the oil that is transported through it is triple the amount that passes through the Suez Canal, and fifteen times the amount that transits the Panama Canal 2/3 of South Korea's energy supplies, 60% of Japan and Taiwan's energy supplies, and 80% of China's crude oil imports go through it energy, finished goods, and unfinished goods go through it it contains oil reserves of 7 billion barrels, and 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas
Then, he talks about what is fuelling that interest:
As it is, the South China Sea is claimed by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, and China. China is being the biggest dick about it though, saying that its historic maps give it a better right than all these other countries that are trying to lay claim to it with 'help' from the United States. Kaplan says that the interest here is globalization, trade, and a general sense of competition. He points out how this wasn't the problem during the days of the British Empire because the "Crown" reigned supreme, and there was a great "emphasis on free trade and freedom of navigation" but that is no longer the case now, what with the countries constantly pitting their warships against each other in frequent close encounters in the South China Sea. Now going back to what we said about China being a dick, one guy this official from one of the other nations (the littoral states) pointed out that China has no justification for its claims, and are sticking to a "Middle Kingdom mentality", effectively "denying [the littoral states] their rights to their own continental shelf". China is merely riding on its growing military and economic power to dominate the other countries. The official said that dealing with China requires US Naval presence, because as it is, China has built and placed all kinds of military contraptions on reefs and shoals within the South China Sea. Kaplan also points out how China's behavior with regard to the South China Sea is a lot like how America was with the Caribbean Sea in the nineteenth century. Back then, the US recognized the European claim over the Caribbean, but tried to dominate it anyway. The US finally became a world power after the Spanish-American War of 1898. China is getting there, given its now rising military prowess... TBC
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