ABSTRACT
The recent trends of deployment of complex and capital intensive equipment
in mines has created interest in the field of maintenance and operational
reliability of this equipment. The failure consequences associated with
random equipment failures have considerable influence on the total operating
cost of a highly mechanized mining system. Keeping this in view, a reliability
investigation was initiated .for a fleet of diesel operated load-haul-dump
(LHD) machines in a Swedish mine. The goal is to estimate the operational
reliability of these machines, locate items or assemblies which need
improvement in design to enhance the reliability and to decide the duration of
optimal preventive maintenance. Failure data for one year of LHD machines
are analysed using the recently developed graphical technique of total time on
test (TTT) plotting. Analytical methods like Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and
maximum likelihood estimation are used in the analysis. The importance of
testing the reliability data for the presence of trends and serial correlation is
also emphasized.
342
drilling
--~ blasting
loading --
transportation
--
crushing m
Fig. 2.
343
An LHD machine.
344
Engine
H rnmiss,ot1 "yra'i=s
Others
The time between successive failures (TBF) data for a period of one year
were sorted and analysed. Different types of statistical distributions were
examined and their parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood
(ML) method. Furthermore, TTT-plots and double TTT-plots, which are
recent graphical methods, are used while analysing the TBFs and the results
are compared to that obtained by the ML method. Simple graphical
techniques are used to test the independent and identically distributed (iid)
assumption for the data set.
2 BASIC CONCEPTS
345
generalization which is very useful for the study of repairable systems is also
briefly discussed in Appendix 1.
346
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(x
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:too)
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347
' ' ' ' l ' ' ' ' l ' ' ' ' l ' ' : ' l ' ' ' '
~LO
o
17.
--
O
L
3
I=I
,rl
II
3
U
~0
"
20
2~
[x
c u m u z a t ~ v m
Fig. 5.
~0o1
TBFa
2,40
--
''4
.=
4"
mOO
II
b.
m
:1.E50
.%.
I,
~p
4,
4.
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--
4.
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4.
4.
aO
4.
iL
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4.
,40
4.
4.4.
4.
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~
0
:"1
.40
,.,
80
(~.--
Fig. 6.
.I
:L20
~.)
tl-~
~.E50
aO0
,
2.40
"!" B F . , ,
Scatter plot of the ith TBF against the (i-l)th TBF i = 1,2,...,n. The TBFs are
from L H D A.
348
System/
subsystems
LHD
Engine
Brake
Hydraulics
Transmission
Best-fit
model
Exp.
Weibull
Lognormal
0'081
0"215
0.125
0-200
0.410
0"069
0' 193
0.101
0.198
0.237
0.118
0.220
0.110
0.180
0.307
Weibull
Weibull
Weibull
Lognormal
Weibull
349
TABLE 2
ML Estimates of the Weibull Parameters
(scale parameter = ~, and shape parameter = 8)
System/
subsystems
LHD A
Machine
Engine
Brake
Hydraulics
Transmission
54.1
146"4
77.2
221.7
282.8
LHD B
1-07
1.35
1.13
0.97
2.18
48-9
167.1
216.6
128.6
127.7
LHD C
1-02
1.17
1.06
1-08
0.65
42-0
106.0
67.3
138.9
138-2
0"86
1.15
0.91
1-01
1-01
0.8
0.6
qrl
:3
0.,4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
O.O
2/n
Fig. 7.
350
0.8
0.8
.1t
:3
0.,4
0.2
0
0
0.2
Fig. 8.
0.,4
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
o
0
0.2
0.4
O.S
X/n
Fig. 9.
0.8
'1
351
5 D I S C U S S I O N OF T H E R E S U L T S
(1)
F r o m the test for trend and serial correlation for the failure data of
the L H D machines and other subsystems, it is clear that the
assumption of iid is not valid for all the failure data. In our case at
least four machines have shown the presence of trends. These
machines are comparatively older in age. Besides, the presence of
trends are more frequent in failures data of subsystems. However,
most of the data set analysed have not contradicted the assumption
of iid (see Figs 4, 5 and 6).
(2) F r o m Table 2 and Figs 7, 8 and 9, it seems reasonable to assume that
the TBFs of the machines as a whole are exponentially distributed
illustrating the Drenick's theorem~ 5 about the failure law of complex
equipment. However, the Weibull distribution o f L H D C has a shape
parameter of 0.87 and also from the TTT-plot for this machine it is
indicated that the TBFs follow a life distribution with decreasing
failure rate (see Fig. 9).
(3) The TBFs for the engine of machine A exhibit an I F R (increasing
failure rate) distribution because its TTT-plot indicates concave
tendencies. 3 This means that preventive maintenance is economical
in this case. In such cases, the optimal maintenance interval by using
an age repair model can be estimated by using TTT-plots. ~6 The I F R
(increasing failure rate) observation is in agreement with the ML
result in Table 2 where the shape parameter for the engine is 1-35
indicating increasing failure rate.
Furthermore, the double TTT-plots for the engine of L H D A
indicate rather more clearly that the TBFs are iid with I F R
characteristics because the points plotted in the double TTT-plots
are randomly spread in the upper half of the unit squares (see Figs
14(a), 14(b) and 14(c)). ~o Also the double TTT-plots for the engines of
L H D B and L H D C indicate a similar pattern, but they are more
weak and not very convincing.
(4) Brake and hydraulic systems of all the three L H D machines seem to
have approximately constant failure rate as indicated by the TTTplots of these subsystems. These results are also in agreement with the
ML estimation of the shape parameters of their respective TBFs (see
Table 2 and Figs 11 and 12).
Further, since trend is noticed in the TBFs of the hydraulic system
of L H D A as shown in Fig. 5, the assumption of iid is not justified.
Thus, a non-stationary model like the non-homogeneous Poisson
process (NHPP) model might be better than the renewal model. The
352
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
i#',
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.8
O.B
(a)
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
0.~
0.4
2/n
(b)
Fig. I0.
TTT-plot of the engine of LH D A when censor time is (a) treated as failure time, (b)
added to the following TBF.
'
'
'
'
'
,,
'
'
,,
'
'
'
''
353
0.8
0.8
3
0.4
0.2
o
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
i
I
i/n
(c)
Fig. lO(e).
TTT-plot of the engine o f L H D A when censor time is discarded for the purpose
of analysis.
O.B
0.8
,el
3
0.4
0.2
Fig. I1.
o.2
0.4
o.6
O.B
354
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
o
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
:2
:l./ra
Fig. 12.
O.a
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.8
O.a
2/n
~.
355
most popular N H P P model is the power law process model where the
failure intensity
),(t) = (fl/gXt/g) p- I
where/~ and ~ are shape and scale parameters and can be estimated
by the following expressions: 17
= t.l(n) 1/~
n-1
fl=n/(~ln(tn/ti))
i=l
(5)
where n is the number of failure events and the t, is the total running
time and t i is the running time at the occurrence of failure number i,
i = 1,2,...,n.
The value offl in such a model for the hydraulic subsystem of LHD
A is obtained to 1.85 indicating that intensity of failure is increasing
with age.
Transmission of LHD A is showing a dominant IFR characteristic
(see Table 2 and Fig. 13). However, those of machines B and C are
D F R and exponential respectively in nature (see Table 2).
6 CONSTRAINTS A N D LIMITATIONS
The major constraint of studies like this one is the availability of reliable and
sufficient data. Collection of reliability data in mines for the mining
machines is rare as compared to other industries. Further, if at all such data
are available, they are not stored in a way so that it can be easily used for
reliability analysis. But recently some of the world's leading mining
companies have realized the advantages of such studies. They have started
the collection of reliability data and have initiated various measures for their
proper storage and fast retrieval.
7 CONCLUSION
Although, the reliability investigation is not yet finished, it seems that
preventive maintenance of the engines of L H D machines could reduce the
maintenance costs. Since we could not get the information about the
maintenance cost, the suitable maintenance age is not yet estimated.
356
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'
'
I.'
'
'
'
'
'
'
'
'
'
'
'
0.8
0.6
U i
0.4
0.2
,,
0.2
I,
0.,4
0.6
w r -
11i
I , ,
0.8
(a)
'
'
Ij
4,
,p
0.8
0.8
U i
0.4
0.2
,
0
,
0.2
0.4
,
O.B
W r
,
O.a
I(i )
(b)
Fig. 14. The double TTT-plot of engine of LHD A (a) when censored TBFs are treated as
failure time, (b) when the censored TBFs are added to the failure times which follow.
I','
'
I'
''
,,
I,,
l,
357
0.8
0.6
u.
1
0.4
0.2
0
0
0.2
0.4
w r -11i
I=llil
0.6
O.O
(c)
A C K N O W L E D G E M ENTS
We are very thankful to Mr Per-Anders Akersten, Karlstad University, for
his valuable comments and help in analysing the failure data especially
through double TTT-plots. We also acknowledge our thanks to M/s LKAB,
Kiruna Mines for providing data and other help during this study.
358
359
APPENDIX 1
The TTT-plot
Suppose that 0 = t(o) <
a unit and let
l ( 1 ) . _<
(and S O= 0) denote the total time on test (TTT) at time t,), i = 1, 2,... n.
The TTT-plot is obtained by plotting (i/n, u~), i = O , 1, 2 , . . . , n where
u~ = Si/S~, and connecting the plotted points by the line segments.
The TTT-plot and its asymptotic counterpart, the scaled TTT-transform
were first presented by Barlow and Campo. 3 Further applications o f these
tools have been presented in a number of papers by Bergman and
Klefsj~. 6,7,16
ti
i = 1,2,..., n
i = 1, 2,..., n
360
T A B L E BI
T i m e Between F a i l u r e s ( T B F s ) in H o u r s a n d R e a s o n s f o r F a i l u r e s
Ser.
No.
LHD A
LHD B
LHD C
TBF
Subsystem
repaired
TBF
Subsystem
repaired
TBF
Subsystem
repaired
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
16
23
32
24
03
12
04
112
68
50
EHO
B
B
B
T
B
B
E
EHA
Tr
149
33
08
05
31
12
188
02
36
63
T
ATr
A Tr
Tr H O"
Tr
H
HTEO
T
B
E
110
13
72
04
45
56
19
27
36
90
B"
B
Tr A
B
ATrO
T
BOE ~
BTrA
B
13
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
211
44
158
65
14;
114
90
35
55
60
19
07
02
118
44
08
277
04
08
10
EO
Tr
BE
BE
EO
Tr
EBO a
B
E
H
28
27
30
134
89
18
32
51
10
36
53
56
06
04
147
36
04
76
36
36
61
48
58
68
03
12
33
07
71
t49
E
HB
T
H
H
EHO
ETr
T
B
B
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
EHTr
T
ETrO
Tr
EBO
B
EBO
B
O
Tr
EBHA ~
E
B
E Tr B H
B
BHE
EHB
HB
H
ET
EB
T
T
O H E Ba
T
H
T
T
EH
EOH
79
103
06
18
147
96
22
03
24
03
Tr
E
Tr
Tr
EH
H
ETr
Tr
TrH
ETr
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
24
03
15
54
26
76
72
02
54
29
164
04
04
18
Tr B
E
OE
H
O
E
T
H
BTrO"
T
ETHO
T
T
T
06
54
09
115
58
96
18
16
25
139
18
34
15
41
E
Tr
Tr
TrB a
E
H
T
OHE
H
ABT a
Tr
E Tr B
OHTr
TrH
09
99
82
121
54
79
99
18
05
21
01
03
05
01
59
22
17
35
35
29
T
HE
ET H
O
HO
E H Tr
A
H
E
HE
T
H Tr O
H
T
HO
E
EH
OBH a
EB
B
361
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