BUSINESS FORECASTING

INTRODUCTION - I

ITU
MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING FACULTY
Prof. Bur lengin
FALL 2011

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN

THE FUTURE ?

THE OLD QUESTION

&
NOT ANSWERED
PROPERLY YET

AIMS OF THE COURSE

THE COURSE IS DESIGNED FOR
STUDENTS WHO WANT TO KNOW
HOW FORECASTS ARE DEVELOPED
AND UTILIZED,
EMPHASIZING MODERN STATISTICAL
METHODS WIDELY USED TO GENERATE
BUSINESS FORECASTS.

OBJECTIVES
UNDERSTAND THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TIME-SERIES ECONOMETRICS
AND OTHER ECONOMETRIC MODELLING
TECHNIQUES.
BE AWARE OF CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
TIME SERIES
SELECT THE MOST APPROPRIATE
FORECASTING METHOD TO THE PROBLEM AT
HAND.
DETECT THE PROBLEMS IN FORECASTING
PROCESS AND FIND THE SOLUTIONS TO
THEM.

DIFFERENT SCOPES
TERMS
SHORT TERM
MEDIUM TERM
LONG TERM

APPROACH
QUANTITATIVE
QUALITATIVE

WORK LOAD
MASS FORECASTING
CUSTOMIZED FORECASTING

OUR SCOPE
TERMS
SHORT TERM
MEDIUM TERM

APPROACH
QUANTITATIVE

WORK LOAD
CUSTOMIZED FORECASTING

NEEDS TO FORECAST
PLANNING

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
PRODUCTION & INVENTORY CONTROL
HUMAN RESOURCE
PERSONAL
......

POLICY GENERATION
NO UNDERSTANDING EFFORT FOR
CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS

SOME FORECAST EXAMPLES

BELL ATLANTIC : monthly data, domestic x
internatinal calls, geographic region
COLOMBIA GAS : five day and 7 year forecast.
SEGIX ITALIA : domestic and export market forecasts
FIAT AUTO : vehicle sales forecast
DOUGLAS AIRCRAFT : passenger-miles forecast &
sales
Non Profit Sector
POLICE WORK LOAD FORECAST
NBER MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

WEAKNESS OF FORECASTING
Characteristics of Forecasts
Forecasts are usually wrong or seldom correct
Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate
Less accurate further into the future

Assumptions of Forecasting Models

Information (data) about the past is available
The pattern of the past will continue into the
future.
Time Varying Coefficient Models is the current
research area to relax the above assumption

QUARTERLY INFLATION
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5

2
1.5

2009

1
0.5
0
-0.5
2003Q2

2004Q1

2004Q4

2005Q3

2006Q2

2007Q1

2007Q4

2008Q3

2008Q4

MONTHLY RETAIL CAR SALES

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
97

98

99

00

01
OTOMOBIL

02

03

MONTHLY MARGARINE
CONSUMPTION
60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000
97

98

99

00

01
MARGARIN

02

03

MONTLY BEER CONSUMPTION

100000000

80000000

60000000

40000000

20000000

0
1997

1998

1999

2000
BIRA

2001

2002

2003

INGREDIENTS
THERE IS NO
CRYSTAL BALL
FORTUNETELLER
PSYCHIC

IT IS NOT PURE
SCIENCE
SCIENCE
STATISTICS
MATHEMATICS
ECONOMICS
FINANCE
MARKETING

ART

LECTURES
50% LECTURE & 50% APPLICATION.
EVIEWS SOFTWARE WILL BE USED
EXAMPLES: REAL LIFE DATA
EACH STUDENT WILL HAVE DIFFERENT
DATA SET
ALL THE COVERED TECHNIQUES WILL
BE APPLIED THE DATA SET

COURSE MATERIAL
TEXT BOOKS
BUSINESS FORECASTING, J.H. WILSON and B. KEATING 5th Ed.
2007

SUPPLEMENTARY BOOKS
TEMEL EKONOMETR Gujarati, 2001

PAPERS & ARTICLES

WILL BE DISTRIBUTED OVER TIME

APPLICATIONS
REAL LIFE DATA EXAMPLES & PROJECTS

SOFTWARE
Eviews 5.0

Website
www.akademi.itu.edu.tr/gunduzu

COURSE OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. THE FORECAST PROCESS, DATA
CONSIDERATIONS AND MODEL SELECTION
3. MOVING AVERAGES AND EXPONENTIAL
SMOOTHING
4. MODELLING TREND : INTRODUCTION TO
5.
6.

FORECASTING WITH REGRESSION MODELS

MODELLING SEASONALITY: FORECASTING
WITH MULTIPLE REGRESSION
TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION: CYCLES

COURSE OUTLINE cont...

7. ARIMA(p,d,q) BOX-JENKINS TYPE
FORECASTING MODELS
8. SEASONAL ARIMA(p,d,q) MODELS
9. VOLATILITY MODELS AND
FORECASTING
10. COMBINING FORECAST RESULTS

COURSE FLOW
ONE WEEK LECTURE
ONE WEEK APPLICATION IN COMP.
LAB.

SOME REMARKS ON
FORECASTING
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't
have knowledge. "
Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet

"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only
longer."
Kehlog Albran, The Profit

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

"An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man

uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination. "
After Andrew Lang

"My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of

my life there. "
C.F. Kettering

SOME REMARKS ON
FORECASTING
"Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then
explaining why it didn't! "
Anonymous

"Wall Street indices predicted nine out of the last five recessions ! "
Paul A. Samuelson

"Forecasting future events is often like searching for a black cat in

an unlit room, that may not even be there. "
Steve Davidson

"A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has
his ignorance better organised. "
Anonymous

"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things
he predicted yesterday didn't happen today. "
Evan Esar

SIX CONSIDERATIONS BASIC TO

SUCCESSFUL FORECASTING
1.

DECISION ENVIRONMENT & LOSS FUNCTION

a. SYMMETRIC versus ASYMMETRIC LOSS
b. QUADRATIC LOSS
c. A DIRECTION FORECAST

2.

FORECAST OBJECT
a. EVENT OUTCOME: AN EVENT IS CERTAIN TO TAKE PLACE AT A
GIVEN TIME BUT THE OUTCOME IS UNCERTAIN : BONUS, ELECTIONS
b. EVENT TIMING: AN EVENT IS CERTAIN TO TAKE PLACE AND THE
OUTCOME IS KNOWN, BUT THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN : QUIZ
c. TIME SERIES: PROJECTING THE FUTURE VALUE OF A TIME SERIES
OF INTEREST : INFLATION, GROWTH, SALES

3.

FORECAST STATEMENT
a. POINT FORECAST
b. INTERVAL FORECAST
c. DENSITY FORECAST

SIX CONSIDERATIONS BASIC TO

SUCCESSFUL FORECASTING
4. FORECAST HORIZON
a.

ONE STEP AHEAD FORECAST

b.

h-STEP AHEAD FORECAST

5. INFORMATION SET- Quality: Garbage in Garbage Out

6. METHODS & COMPLEXITY
a.

PARSIMONY PRINCIPLE: simple model is better

b.

SHRINKAGE PRINCIPLE : imposing restrictions on the model

c.

KISS PRINCIPLE Keep It Sophisticatedly Simple

TIME-SERIES ECONOMETRICS
versus
ECONOMETRIC MODELLING
Non-theoretic beginnings.
Dissatisfaction with the dynamic specifications
in macro models.
Forecasting focus.
Warning.. Time-series side-steps some
important specification issues.

Time Series Analysis does not generally incorporate

all of the economic relationships found in economic
models.
Times Series Analysis uses
more statistics and less economics.
Time Series Analysis is useful for short term forecasting only.
Time Series Analysis has two subdivision:
Univariate Time Series Analysis
Multivariate Time Series Analysis
Long term forecasting requires incorporating more involved
behavioral economic relationships into the analysis.

Univariate Time Series Analysis can be used

to relate the current values of a single economic
variable to:
1. its past values
2. the values of current and past random errors

Other variables are not used

in univariate time series analysis.

QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING
Forecasting based on data and
models
Casual Models:
Price
Population
Advertising

Causal
Model

Year 2000
Sales

Time Series Models:

Sales1999
Sales1998
Sales1997

Time Series
Model

Year 2000
Sales

CAUSAL versus TIME SERIES

MODEL
CAUSAL MODEL :
Inflation = f(Money Stock, Exchange Rates, GDP)
Pt = 0 + 1 M1t + 2 EXCt + 3 Yt + t
Sales = f(Income, Own Price/Competitors Price, Advertising Expenditure, GRP,
Level of Promotions)
St = 0 + 1 It + 2 Pt + 3 AD.EXP.t + 3 GRP.t + 3 PROMt + t

TIME SERIES MODEL

Inflation = f(Past values of inflation, own forecast errors)
Pt = 0 + 1 Pt-1 + 2 Pt-2 + 3 Pt-3 + t + 1 t-1 + 2 t-2
Sales = f(Past sales figures, own forecast errors)
St = 0 + 1 St-1 + 2 St-2 + 3 St-3 + t + 1 t-1 + 2 t-2

QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
Forecasting based on experience, judgment,
and knowledge
Sales force composites (field sales force)
Consumer market survey (users expectations)
Jury of executive
The Delphi method

OVERVIEW OF FORECASTING
MODELS
Forecasting
Models

Qualitative

Sales force
composite

Moving
average

Consumer
survey

Jury of
executive

Exponential
smoothing

Quantitative

Delphi
method

Decomposition

Causal

Time series

ARIMA

Neural
networks

Regression

Econometrics

TIME SERIES MODEL

BUILDING STEPS
Historical data collection
Data plotting (time series plot)
Define validation and estimation periods
Forecasting model building
Evaluation and selection of model
Forecasting with the final selected model

STATISTICAL GRAPHICS FOR

FORECASTING
WHEN COMPARED TO THE MODERN ARRAY
OF STATISTICAL MODELLING METHODS,
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS MIGHT SEEM SO
SIMPLE AND STRAIGHTFORWARD.
IN MANY RESPECTS THE HUMAN EYE IS A
FAR MORE SOPHISTICATED TOOL FOR DATA
ANALYSIS AND MODELLING

ANSCOMBEs QUARTET
Obs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

X1
Y1
10.00 8.04
8.00 6.95
13.00 7.58
9.00 8.81
11.00 8.33
14.00 9.96
6.00 7.24
4.00 4.26
12.00 10.84
7.00 4.82
5.00 5.68

MEAN 9.00
VARIANCE 11.00

7.50
4.13

Obs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

X2
10.00
8.00
13.00
9.00
11.00
14.00
6.00
4.00
12.00
7.00
5.00

Y2
9.14
8.14
8.74
8.77
9.26
8.10
6.13
3.10
9.13
7.26
4.74

MEAN 9.00
VARIANCE 11.00

7.50
4.13

Obs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

X3
Y3
10.00 7.46
8.00 6.77
13.00 12.74
9.00 7.11
11.00 7.81
14.00 8.84
6.00 6.08
4.00 5.39
12.00 8.15
7.00 6.42
5.00 5.73

MEAN 9.00
VARIANCE 11.00

7.50
4.12

Obs
X4
Y4
1
8.00 6.58
2
8.00 5.76
3
8.00 7.71
4
8.00 8.84
5
8.00 8.47
6
8.00 7.04
7
8.00 5.25
8
19.00 12.50
9
8.00 5.56
10
8.00 7.91
11
8.00 6.89
MEAN 9.00
VARIANCE 11.00

7.50
4.12

ALL THE DATA SETS PRODUCE SAME MEANS, VARIANCES

AND REGRESSION LINES
Y1=3+0.5*X1
Y3=3+0.5*X3

Y2=3+0.5*X2
Y4=3+0.5*X4

ANSCOMBEs QUARTET
Y1 vs . X 1

Y2 vs . X 2

12

12

10

10

8
Y2

14

Y1

14

Y1=3+0.5*X1

Y2=3+0.5*X2

0
0

12

16

20

12

X1

16

20

X2

Y3 vs . X 3

Y4 vs . X 4

14

14

12

12

10

10

8
Y4

Y3

Y3=3+0.5*X3

2
0
0

12
X3

16

Y4=3+0.5*X4

2
20

0
0

12
X4

16

20

VALIDATION AND ESTIMATION

PERIODS
The data which are not held out are
used to estimate the parameters of
the model, the model is then tested
on data in the validation period, and
forecasts are then generated beyond
the end of the estimation and
validation periods.
The data in the estimation period are
used to help select the model and to
estimate its parameters. Forecasts
made in this period are not
completely "honest" because data on
both sides of each observation are
used to help determine the forecast.
The one-step-ahead forecasts made
in this period are usually called fitted
values. it is possible that the data
have been overfitted

COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES

Trend: long term overall up or down movement
Seasonality: periodic pattern repeating every
year
Cycles: up & down movement repeating over long
time frame
Random Variations: random movements follow no
pattern
Outliers & Structural Breaks
Changing Variance
Nonlinearity

Trend

Random
movement

Demand

Demand

COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES

Time

Demand

Time

Demand

Time
Seasonal
pattern

Cycle

Trend with
seasonal pattern

Time

CHANCING VARIANCE OF TIME

SERIES
Yt

Time

Yt

Time

NONLINEARITY
Yt

Time

NONLINEARITY
Yt

Time

SLOW INCREASES AND SHARP DECLINES

OUTLIERS
Yt

Time

STRUCTURAL BREAKS
Yt

Time

COMPOSITION OF TIME SERIES

10

20

100

80

10

60

40

-10

10

20

30

RANDOM

SEAS

-20
0

10

20

30

80

60

40

20

0
0

-10
0

100

TREND

20

10

20

30

10

20

30

FORECASTING
TREND+SEASONALITY
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30

Value

20
X
10
0

XF
1

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

TREND
Most of the economic and business time series show trend
The trend behavior may be

Upward

Downward

Linear

Nonlinear

Steep

Smooth
Mostly, the time series show the mix of these behaviors.

UPWARD & DOWNWARD TRENDS

Yt

Yt

Yt

LINEAR & NONLINEAR TRENDS

Yt

Yt

Yt

TREND
Linear trend
yt= + t + t

t = 1, 2, ... , n

Nonlinear trend
yt = A*ert t
yt = + 1 t + 2 t2 + t
Transformation yt = ln(wt) generally achive linearity

Logarithmic first difference = growth rate

This approximation is valid only for small changes

TREND
Trend may be

If we observe
only this part, we
may assume
deterministic
trend

Deterministic
Stochastic randomly changing trends
Both
Yt

Yt

Stochastic trend

Deterministic trend

Graphical examination does not provide solid evidence for the type of the trend

SEASONALITY
Observations in certain seasons display
different features to those in other seasons.

Tourist arrivals
Sales such as beverages, automobiles
Inflation
Stock prices
Agricultural production

SEASONALITY
S= number of seasons (periods)
Monthly data s = 12
Quarterly data s = 4
Daily data s = 5

DETERMINISTIC versus STOCHASTIC

SEASONALITY
Seasonality may be
Deterministic
Stochastic
Seasonal
pattern

Seasonal
pattern

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Period I

Q4

Period II

DETERMINISTIC SEASONALITY
yt-yt-1 = 1*D1 + 2* D2 + 3*D3 + 4*D4 + t
Dst = 1 if t = (T-1)*S + s
Dst = 0 otherwise
Year Quarter D1

s = 1, 2, ..,S
T = 1, 2,...,n

D2

D3

D4

1990
1990
1990
1990

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

1
0
0
0

0
1
0
0

0
0
1
0

0
0
0
1

1991
1991
1991
1991

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

1
0
0
0

0
1
0
0

0
0
1
0

0
0
0
1

does not show any

seasonal patern, the R2
gives the amount of
deterministic seasonality
If

STOCHASTIC SEASONALITY
yt-yt-s = s + t

s = 1, 2, ..,S
t = 1, 2,...,n

Seasonal effects randomly fluctuate from

period to period.

OUTLIERS & BREAKS

Yt

Yt

Time

Yt = Yt-Yt-1

Time

Gives wrong
signals and
hides true model

Time

CONDITIONAL VARIANCE
( yt-yt-1 )2 = + ( yt-1-yt-2 )2 + t
Variance
indicator

Outliers tend to emerge in clusters.

Indicates that concecutive variances are related

Yt

Time

NONLINEARITY
Yt

Yt

Easy to model this type

of nonlinearity via
transformations

Slow increases and sharp

declines. Not easy to model

COMMON TRENDS
Yt 2

Yt

Xt 2

Xt

Common Trend

Common Variance

US$ TL. EXCHANGE RATE

1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
90

91

92

93

94

95

96
DOLAR

97

98

99

00

01

PRODUCTION INDEX
120

110

100

90

80

70

60
90

91

92

93

94

95

96
URETIND

97

98

99

00

01

USA GDP
10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
50

55

60

65

70

75
USAGDP

80

85

90

95

YIELD CURVE OF 1 MONTH

TRESUARY BILL
0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00

-0.01

-0.02
200

400

600
M1

800

1000

YIELD CURVE OF 6 MONTH

TRESUARY BILL
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
200

400

600
M6

800

1000

TCMB EXPECTATION SURVEY RESULTS

MONTHLY INFLATION
CONSUMER PRICE
TKETC FYAT ENDEKS
GZLEM

ORTALAMA

MAX.

MN.

MEDYAN

15-Jan-02

51

4.00

6.00

2.50

4.00

31-Jan-02

61

3.80

6.00

2.40

3.90

15-Feb-02

62

3.80

5.50

2.00

3.70

28-Feb-02

62

3.70

5.00

2.20

3.70

TKETC FYAT ENDEKS

GZLEM

ORTALAMA

MAX.

MN.

MEDYAN

15-Jun-03

74

0.80

2.00

-0.40

0.90

0.80

2.00

-0.40

0.80

15.Mar.02

63

2.60

4.50

1.50

2.60

30-Jun-03

81

31.Mar.02

65

2.50

3.50

1.50

2.50

15-Apr-02

0.30

2.00

-1.00

0.30

2.00

3.50

1.00

2.00

15-Jul-03

81

79

30-Apr-02

78

2.00

4.80

1.00

2.00

31-Jul-03

73

0.20

2.00

-1.00

0.30

15.May.02

82

1.80

3.00

0.90

1.90

15-Aug-03

67

0.60

2.00

-0.60

0.50

31.May.02

83

1.90

3.00

0.90

1.90

15-Jun-02

0.50

2.00

-0.60

0.50

1.00

2.20

-0.30

1.00

31-Aug-03

66

85

30-Jun-02

78

1.20

2.60

-0.30

1.20

15-Sep-03

69

1.60

3.00

0.30

1.70

15-Jul-02

74

1.40

3.10

0.10

1.50

30-Sep-03

71

1.50

3.00

-0.10

1.60

31-Jul-02

72

1.50

3.10

0.50

1.50

15-Aug-02

69

1.80

3.00

0.70

1.70

15-Oct-03

77

1.80

3.00

0.40

1.80

31-Aug-02

77

1.80

3.00

0.90

1.80

31-Oct-03

72

1.70

3.00

0.40

1.80

15-Sep-02

73

3.30

4.70

1.50

3.30

15-Nov-03

75

1.60

3.00

0.70

1.50

30-Sep-02

77

3.30

4.70

1.50

3.20

15-Oct-02

75

3.40

4.40

2.00

3.50

30-Nov-03

87

1.60

3.00

0.50

1.60

31-Oct-02

78

3.40

4.50

1.50

3.50

15-Dec-03

94

1.40

2.20

0.60

1.40

15-Nov-02

74

3.00

4.00

1.50

3.00

31-Dec-03

89

1.40

2.00

0.50

1.40

30-Nov-02

73

3.00

4.50

1.70

3.00

15-Dec-02

74

2.50

4.70

1.40

2.50

15-Jan-04

82

1.30

2.70

0.40

1.30

31-Dec-02

72

2.60

4.70

1.00

2.50

31-Jan-04

88

1.40

2.70

0.50

1.40

15-Jan-03

75

2.60

4.00

1.00

2.50

31-Jan-03

1.10

2.00

0.40

1.10

2.60

4.00

1.00

2.50

15-Feb-04

81

74

15-Feb-03

75

2.50

4.10

1.20

2.50

29-Feb-04

83

1.10

2.10

0.40

1.10

28-Feb-03

78

2.40

3.80

1.20

2.50

15.Mar.04

94

1.00

1.80

0.40

1.00

15.Mar.03

76

2.30

4.00

0.90

2.20

31.Mar.03

1.00

1.80

0.40

1.00

2.30

3.80

0.90

2.40

31.Mar.04

84

66

15-Apr-03

71

2.40

4.00

1.10

2.50

30-Apr-03

76

2.40

4.00

1.10

2.50

15.May.03

72

1.40

2.20

0.40

1.40

31.May.03

73

1.20

2.20

0.30

1.20

1.04

10.01.2003

1.04

17.01.2003

1.05

24.01.2003

1.07

31.01.2003

1.08

07.02.2003

1.08

14.02.2003

1.08

21.02.2003

1.07

28.02.2003

1.08

07.03.2003

1.09

14.03.2003

1.10

21.03.2003

1.07

28.03.2003

1.07

04.04.2003

1.08

11.04.2003

1.07

18.04.2003

1.08

25.04.2003

1.09

02.05.2003

1.11

09.05.2003

1.13

16.05.2003

1.15

23.05.2003

1.16

30.05.2003

1.18

06.06.2003

1.17

13.06.2003

1.17

20.06.2003

1.18

27.06.2003

1.16

04.07.2003

1.15

11.07.2003

1.14

18.07.2003

1.13

25.07.2003

1.13

01.08.2003

1.14

08.08.2003

1.13

15.08.2003

1.13

1.30

WEEKLY
EURO/US$
PARITY

1.20

1.10

1.00

0.90

0.80
08
.0
1.
08 199
9
.0
4.
08 199
9
.0
7.
19
08
99
.1
0.
19
08
99
.0
1.
2
0
08
.0 00
4.
08 200
0
.0
7.
20
08
00
.1
0.
2
0
08
.0 00
1.
08 200
1
.0
4.
08 200
1
.0
7.
20
08
01
.1
0.
20
08
01
.0
1.
2
0
08
.0 02
4.
08 200
2
.0
7.
2
0
08
.1 02
0.
20
08
02
.0
1.
08 200
3
.0
4.
08 200
3
.0
7.
20
08
03
.1
0.
2
0
08
.0 03
1.
20
08
04
.0
4.
20
04

03.01.2003

22.08.2003

1.11

29.08.2003

1.09

05.09.2003

1.09

12.09.2003

1.11

19.09.2003

1.12

26.09.2003

1.14

03.10.2003

1.16

10.10.2003

1.17

17.10.2003

1.17

24.10.2003

1.17

31.10.2003

1.17

07.11.2003

1.15

14.11.2003

1.15

21.11.2003

1.18

28.11.2003

1.19

05.12.2003

1.20

12.12.2003

1.22

19.12.2003

1.23

26.12.2003

1.24

02.01.2004

1.25

09.01.2004

1.27

16.01.2004

1.27

23.01.2004

1.25

30.01.2004

1.26

06.02.2004

1.25

13.02.2004

1.27

20.02.2004

1.28

27.02.2004

1.26

05.03.2004

1.23

12.03.2004

1.23

19.03.2004

1.23

26.03.2004

1.23

02.04.2004

1.22

09.04.2004

1.22