Submitted to:
Sir Fida Hussain Bukhari
Submitted by:
Ayeshe Farooq (M09BBA020)
BBA (Hons.)
(Banking and Finance)
Topic:
NATIONAL SAVINGS (COMPARISON
OF BANKS AND SAVINGS CENTERS)
Page 2
ACKNOLEDGEMENT
I am grateful to my supervisor sir Fida Hussain Bukhari for his attention and
guidance throughout the project work. Without his guidance and suggestions, it
would have been very difficult for me to complete this project.
Furthermore, I would like to thank my family and friends for all the love, support
and understanding they gave me during the time of writing this project.
Page 3
Executive summary
INTRODUCTION
National savings means Total saving by all sectors of the economy: personal
saving, business saving (corporate after-tax profits not paid as dividends), and
government saving (the budget surplus or deficit). National saving represents all
income not consumed, publicly or privately, during a given period. In my research
I will compare the contribution of the banks and national savings centers towards
national savings .whether banks contributed more in national savings or savings
centers. I will do research with in the time series of years 2003 to 2013.
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 4
OBJECTIVE:
The purpose of this study is to examine the roll of banks and savings centers in
national savings.
METHODOLOGY:
In this research topic quantitative technique is used. Because I have gathered the
data form financial statements of different banks and national saving centers and
reports of state bank of Pakistan. I study state bank of Pakistan reports, reports of
IMF, Pakistan economic surveys, central directorate of national savings reports.
All data is taken from internet.
NATIONAL SAVING:
For a country, saving is defined in a similar manner: by subtracting from a
countrys economy what is consumed. We subtract govt. purchases of goods and
services in addition to consumer purchases(S=Y-C-G).The major component of
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 5
national saving is private saving (the sum of all savings by individuals in economy).
Some people save a lot, some do not save al all, and some are dissaving-that is
they have negative saving. For example: when people retire they usually consume
a lot more than their income they are dissaving, when people are middle-aged,
their income is usually greater than their consumption they are saving. Most
young people either save very little or, if they are able to borrow, they dis-save.
We define private saving using the symbol T for taxes as
Private saving=Y-C-T. (Weerapana-page 528-2008)
Page 6
The process of production generates not only a flow of outputs of goods, but also
a flow of incomes to those participating in the process. Since, in general, every
dollar of production generates a dollar of income, it follows that the real GDP of a
country reflects a corresponding flow of aggregate real income in that country.
Thus aggregate output and income are essentially equivalent measures of
aggregate economic activity. Leaving aside some refinement of detail associated
with international transactions, all of the income generated in any period is
attributable to the household sector, since the owners of firms (whose income
takes the form of profits) are of course themselves also part of that sector. The
incomes received by households may be categorized into the part that they spend
on consumption goods, the part that they save, and the part that they are
required to pay in taxes. Thus aggregate income may be represented as a sum of
consumption (C), saving (S) and taxation (T). Bearing in mind that we can
represent aggregate income by GDP, we can summaries the components of
income as:
2. GDP = C + S + T
Now we may combine our definitions of aggregate output and aggregate income
in equations (1) and (2), to get:
3. C + I + G + NX = C + S + T
This may be rearranged as investment.
4. I = S - (G - T) NX
For it defines, in the three terms on the right hand side, the sources of saving
from which aggregate investment can be financed. The first is domestic private
sector saving, S (that is, saving by households and business enterprises). The
second is public sector saving, represented by the government budget deficit, or
the difference between government expenditure and tax revenue, (G-T). The third
source of saving is the foreign sector. By the logic of our international economic
relationships any net borrowing from the rest of the world implies a
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 7
Page 8
CENTRAL DIRECTORATE OF
NATIONAL SAVINGS (CDNS):
In Pakistan, scheduled banks, DFIs, some NBFCs and central directorate of
national savings (CDNS) are the various types of financial institutions which
mobilize savings from the economy but with altogether different objectives.
While banks and NBFIs serve as financial intermediaries that accept deposits and
channelize them to lending activities, CDNS promotes domestic savings by
providing access to different types of savings instruments, with the objective of
providing non-bank financing for the governments budget deficit. These
institutions operate as direct competitors in mobilizing financial savings.
BRIEF HISTORY:
The history of the national savings organization in Pakistan dates back to 1873
when the government savings banks act, 1873 was promulgated. Since the
inception of the national savings organization, this platform has largely been
used by the government to mobilize funds to finance the budget deficit. During
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 9
the First World War, the British government used this channel to raise funds to
meet war related expenditures. Since acquiring independence in 1947, this
organization remained operational in Pakistan in various forms. In august 1960,
the CDNS was given the status of an attached department of the ministry of
finance and made responsible for all policy matters and execution of various
national savings schemes (NSS). The present structure of CDNS was set up in early
1972 under the ministry of finance. So far, CDNS has not only remained successful
in promoting financial savings in the economy but has also generated requisite
funds for the government to finance the budgetary deficit. National savings
schemes (NSS) offered by CDNS are sold through a network of 367 national
savings centers all over the country, controlled by 12 regional directorate of
national savings(RDNS).
DSCs
1966
10 years
SSCs
1990
3 years
RICs
1993
5 years
BSCs
2003
10 years
PBA
2003
10 years
1 month
1 month
1 month
1 month
1 month
No profit
payable
is No profit
if payable
Page 10
penalty
encashment
before
completion
each year
encashment
value
before
of completion of
each period of
six months
Bi-annually
Monthly
face value
Profit
Bullet bonds
Monthly
payments
Zakat
Compulsory
compulsory
exempted exempted
Withholdin @10%*
@10%*
@10%
exempted
g tax
Minimum
Rs.500
Rs.500
Rs.50,000 Rs.5,000
investment
amount
Maximum
No limit
No limit
No limit
Rs.3,000,0
investment
00
limit
Institutiona Allowed **
Allowed**
Allowed** Not
l
allowed^
investment
*Withholding tax is exempted if total investment does not exceed Rs
150, 000
face value
Monthly
exempted
exempted
Rs.10,000
Rs.3,000,0
00
Not
allowed #
Page 11
Page 12
FY07
72.1
FY08
71.1
27.9
FY09
74.4
20.2
FY10
74.1
15.4
15.6
15.7
22.7
24.1
5.5
5.0
7.2
9.3
20.0
22.4
24.2
25.2
0.1
16.2
11.8
100
940
0.1
18.1
10.7
100
1,020
0.0
17.2
8.4
100
1,271
0.0
18.3
7.6
100
1,456
30.7
Above the table shows that NSS rates of return, indicating that CDNS invariably
offers higher rates of returns on various NSS schemes as compared to the
weighted average rates on bank deposits. In December FY00, with the objective of
eliminating market distortion and moving to a market mechanism for the
determination of rates, the rates of returns on NSS instruments were linked with
the cut-off rates on Pakistan investment bonds. Following the declining trend in
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 13
PIB rates from FY02-FY04,rates of return on NSS instruments started declining and
reached 7.1 %(average)in FY05, from 12.4% in FY00. From end FY08 onwards,
there have been several upwards revisions in NSS rates in line with the changes in
rates on PIBs, driven by monetary tightening by the central bank. Consequently,
NSS recorded historical net inflows of Rs. 250.1 billion in FY09.however, a fall in
PIB rates in the brief period of monetary easing in 2009, led to a reduction in NSS
rates by 283-300 bps. Consequently during FY10, net flows of Rs.185.7 into NSS
were below the targeted amount of Rs.231 billion. Subsequently to the reversal in
the monetary stance from FY11 onwards, the rate of profit on these schemes
were also enhanced. Although NSS instruments do not provide inflation adjusted
returns. Nevertheless, their relatively higher rates makes them attractive
investment instrument. Given growing inflationary pressure in FY10, the real rate
of return on both NSS instruments and bank deposits are flying around the
negative zone. Notably ,NSS instruments are protected to market fluctuations in
interest rates due to their non-tradable nature .Another prominent feature of
these instrument is their availability on tap, and the embedded put option,
which enables the investor to encash his investment and reinvest at a higher rate
each time there is an upward revision in the rates of returns. The early
encashment facility without any cash penalty reinforces this particular behavior.
These various features of NSS instruments tend to create distortions in the
financial system.
Page 14
200 200
7
8
1. Saving accounts
a. With check facility
b. Without
check
facility
2. khas deposit accounts
or certificates 3 years
(rollover)
a. Three
years(compound
rate)
3.Mahana
amdani
accounts
a. Compound rate on
maturity
4.Defence
saving
certificates
a. 10
years
(compound rates)
5.national
deposit
certificates/accounts
a. 1 year (rollover)
6.special
saving 12.
certificates/accounts
8%
a. Registered
(last
period of complete
six month)
200
9
1
July
2010
1
Oct.
8
8
8.50 8.50
2011 2012
2013
1
12 Oct. 1Jan
Oct.
6.85
6.85
6.65
6.65
13.42
13.42
10.41
10.41
11.04
10.84
13
13
13
12.80 13
10.50
10.30
14
14
14
15.2
%
12
14
13
8
8.50
13
14
Page 15
b. Bearer (last 2
period of complete
six month)
7.regular
income 13. 15% 12
12.36
certificates
3%
8. pensioners benefit 15 16.8 14.1 14.64
accounts
%
%
6
9.
behbood
saving 15 16.8 14.1 14.64
certificate
%
%
6
Source: central directorate of national savings.
TROUBLE
CENTERS:
AT
12.6
0
14.4
0
14.4
0
10.56
10.37
12.96
12.72
12.96
12.72
NATIONAL
SAVINGS
By Afshan Subohi
September 29th, 2008
For commoners, the government schemes have proved to be an attractive avenue
of investment because of steady returns and minimal risk. For government, it has
been a most dependable, comparatively cheaper mode of domestic borrowing
and the least damaging. Leaning on the central bank to bridge the government
resource gap create more imperfections. When the government needs to borrow
and the citizens are inclined to invest in its savings schemes, the institution
handling the business should have been a model financial organization. The
Central Directorate of National Savings is far from being ideal even if the issue of
rates being offered is set aside. It (CDNS) is among the most neglected
organizations working under the all-powerful and seemingly most mixed up
ministry of finance, said a retired CDNS employee. Last year we surpassed the
initial target of Rs43 billion that was later revised to Rs80 billion. The CDNS
achieved net collection of Rs87 billion during the year. This year the government
increased the target sharply to Rs150 billion. We are trying to meet the target by
introducing new short- term schemes despite multiple organisational issues,
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 16
Zafar Sheikh, Director General CDNS told Dawn from Islamabad. Some senior
members of the organization and staff of branches visited in Karachi gave out a
long list of pending problems faced by the CDNS staff. Most staffers are on the
edge. Had there been jobs in the market each one of us would have left long time
back. We are made to work like donkeys under immense stress. There are at least
ten people prodding while we make entries in giant registers and calculate profits
for clients, said a disgruntled officer at a branch. The average strength of staff at
one branch is seven who handle up to 400 cases in busy branches. Many staffers
of CDNS blamed their officers for their dilemma. When hundreds of millions of
rupees are handled manually there is possibility of grave mistakes. Currently
CDNS is not exposed to external audits. It is humanly impossible to manage the
current size of account holders without automation, said a regional head who
wished not to be named. In all there are twelve regions and several dozen
branches all over the country. The staff strength of the organization has been
frozen for the last 25 years. Over this period the total funds handled multiplied
many times from Rs25-30 billion back in 1984; today total stocks of CDNS stand at
1.157 trillion. Not only this, there are various new schemes with periodical returns
that has further increased the workload on our staff, Afzal Tahir Bajwa, Director
Schemes told this scribe from Islamabad. A half-hearted attempt was made a few
years back and computer stations were installed in some branches in the name of
gradually introducing automation. The system failed. It was a non-starter from
the word go a staffer at a branch said. The seniors in Islamabad and Karachi
believe that nothing less than creation of a full-fledged IT department with a
capacity to develop suitable software should even be attempted. Dr Zafar said
that some headway has been made in this regard and a director IT has been
recruited to start with. The problems at the CDNS cannot be resolved by the
ministry of finance. There is a need for drastic restructuring and creation of a selfsustaining autonomous CDNS, the same suggestion was repeated at almost all
tiers of the organization. In this regard, the ground work was being done but the
summary was shot down all three times by what many believe officers of the
ministry of finance in collusion with all powerful bankers lobby who see the
institution as a challenging competitor. They are control freaks. Even when it is
already beyond their control they do not let it go. As for bankers, they like
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 17
working in a tilted market loaded against depositors. More than interest it is their
psyche, commented an officer of Planning Commission reached for comment.
CONCLUSION:
While NSS ply an important role in mobilizing financial savings in the economy,
the outstanding stock of NSS instruments along with the unique characteristics of
these schemes create distortion in the financial sector. It is suggested that CDNS
is restructured in such a manner that it can continue to play its vital role in
mobilizing financial savings in the economy without creating significant
distortions in financial sector. To meet this objective , NSS instruments need to be
integrated into mainstream capital market by making them tradable(as suggested
by the SECP in its report ,and by withdrawing the implicit put option, which is a
potential source of liquidity problems for the government . it is also important to
upgrade CDNS infrastructure by utilizing IT services. Giving the huge size of
investment in NSS, a restructured and well- equipped CDNS can be strategically
used to promote outreach of financial services to remote areas.
CONTRIBUTION OF BANKS
IN NATIONAL SAVINGS:
BANKING SECTOR OF PAKISTAN:
Economic growth of a country improves because of good financial institutions.
Financial institutions available in Pakistan are; commercial banks, specialized
banks, national savings schemes, insurance companies, development finance
institutions, investment banks, stock exchanges, corporate brokerage houses,
leasing companies, discount houses, microfinance institutions and Islamic banks.
They offer several products and services. In 1971, developing commercial banks in
the private sector and creating development institutions was major focus of
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 18
Government. The private sector development closed during the period 19711990, Government policy of nationalization. During this period, the banking sector
came under the Governments control. The current position of Pakistans financial
sector is the result of several policy shifts and developments. Like many other
developing countries, Pakistan also undertook the process of financial
restructuring through reforms in early 1990s to establish a more market-based
system of financial intermediation and Government financing, conduct the
monetary policy more efficiently through greater reliance on indirect instruments
and increase the contribution to the rapid development of the stock markets.
During the last few years, financial markets and institutions in Pakistan have
witnessed significant changes. Since 2000, more than 40 transactions of mergers
and acquisitions have been taken place within banks and between banks and nonbank finance companies. Also many banks/development financial institutions
have expanded their activities into the areas where the banks previously were
either not allowed or not interested. These include insurance, asset management,
brokerage, leasing and other non-banking finance services essentially through
separate entities. Along with financial services, various groups that control
different banks have also stakes in non-financial/real sector of economy. In the
World Economic Forum's Financial Development Report 2010, Pakistan has
been ranked 54out of 57 countries. State Bank of Pakistan (the central bank of the
country) is the sole supervisory and regulatory authority of Commercial Banks,
Islamic Commercial Bank, Development Financial Institutions (DFIs), Micro
Finance Banks and foreign exchange companies in Pakistan. The remaining
financial institutions are monitored by other authorities, such as the Securities
and Exchange Commission. Unpredicted floods and rains in the country worsened
the effects of an already delicate condition of banking sector as the nonperforming loans (NPLs) of the banking system grew at a faster rate during 2010.
The asset base of the system also contracted over the year. The macroenvironment is already questionable for the last two years or so. A host of factors
i.e. slackened economic activities; power shortages, security concerns, and higher
inflation have squeezed profit margins as well as the repayment capacity of
borrowers. Moreover, the fiscal situation also deteriorated and the public sector
borrowed heavily from banks for budgetary support, financing needs of Public
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 19
Sector Enterprises (PSEs) and commodity operations. 4.1 percent was the GDP
growth for 2009. However, the increasing inflation is affecting the current
economic situation. The economic condition has further worsened by
unpredictable floods and seasonal rains. GDP growth for 2010 and 2011 is
expected to remain 2 to 3 percent against the target of 4.5 percent and inflation is
expected to remain 13.5 to 14.5 percent due to these problems. However,
internationally IMF in its recent World Economic Outlook of Oct-2010 has
highlighted an increasing growth than projected growth during first half of 2010.
Other than this the global activity will expand by 4.8 percent during 2010 (up from
4.6 percent forecast of Jul-2010), it shows that the economy is facing a number of
unresolved challenges and downside risks continue to predominate. After the
independence Pakistani banking sector have face drastic changes. It faced several
shortages of resources and uncertainty due political and economic instability.
Lack of trained human resource and professionals resulted into poor quality of
products and services. State Bank of Pakistan was formed as a central bank on
July 1, 1948 to control the financial sector. Subsequent amendments were made
to extend the control and functions of SBP through State Bank of Pakistan Act
1956. SBP introduced private sector to establish banks and financial institutions in
the country. During the period of 1050s and 1960s unhealthy and unlawful
competition resulted due to bribe and corruption. In 1974, all the existing banks
were nationalized by the Government. Their performance worsened due to
government protection to employees, resulting into the provision of inferior
products and poor services. It also discouraged the private investors and foreign
financial institutions. The bad condition nationalized banks led to privatization of
banking sector in early 1990s. Today, in the growth of the countrys economy
banking sector plays an important role. According to the State Bank of Pakistan
Act, the banking system of Pakistan is a two-tier system including the State Bank
of Pakistan (SBP), commercial banks, specialized banks, Development Finance
Institutions (DFIs), Microfinance banks and Islamic banks. As of June 2010, the
banking sector comprised 36 commercial banks (including 25 local private banks,
4 public sector commercial banks and 7 foreign banks) and 4 specialized banks
with a total number of 9,087 branches throughout the country. Among the banks,
there are 6 fully fledged Islamic banks as at end of June 2010.
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 20
Page 21
hampered, on the other hand foreign investments in the country also reduced.
Other factors such as power shortages reduced the overall industrial capacity of
the country and due to increased cost of production the prices rose, the long
standing issue of inter-corporate circular debt, considerable decline in foreign
direct investment due to weak economic fundamentals, high inflation, security
concerns and above all, the high increase in fiscal deficit which broke all previous
records in the country's economic history, major environmental catastrophe in
the form of floods, all these factors contributed in weakening Pakistans economic
condition. The leading evidence of these various pressures on domestic firms and
industries is that their loan repayment capacity has been compromised, with a
consequent rise of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the banks balance sheets.
Furthermore, due to the deteriorated fiscal situation, public sector borrowed
heavily from banks for budgetary support, financing needs of Public sector
Enterprises (PSEs) and commodity operations. Accordingly, there has been a shift
in banks asset-mix towards credit to the public sector along with increased
performance for top rated corporations over Small and Medium Enterprises
(SMEs) and consumer that are generally less resilient to economic slowdown and
fragility in operating environment. Nevertheless, it has tested the resilience of the
banking sector in that banks have been forced to build emergency reserves and
provide for infected assets. Such requirements have been affecting their dividend
payments and consequently putting pressure on their share prices.
Page 22
Liabilities:
On the liability side, banks deposit base, the biggest source of funding for banks
in Pakistan, grew to reach Rs. 5021 billion during 2010, slightly lower than the
average growth percentage since 2001. Increase in deposits is largely attributed
to monetary expansion on the back of rising Net Domestic Assets (NDA) - due to
substantial government borrowing - and an increase in home remittances, an
important source of bank deposits. Banks on the other hand are also facing a very
strong competition by the NSS (national saving scheme) due to the much higher
return provided by NSS over deposits. As a result, low returns on deposits
continue to hurt deposit growth. The State Bank of Pakistan is struggling to
develop an appropriate response to the issue. (E.g. SBP introduced a minimum
rate of return of 5.0 percent per annum on all categories of savings/PLS savings
deposits with effect from 1st June 2008). However large banks due to their larger
market share and higher economies of scale are striving hard to maintain an
attractive return on deposits to hold on to their age old customers. On the other
hand newer and smaller banks are also coming up with attractive rates of return
and attractive offers to grab new customers. Borrowings from financial
institutions, another key component of liabilities, witnessed a substantial growth,
in sharp contrast to the small growth of 1.7 percent in 2008. In 2010, these
borrowings mainly constituted of borrowings from SBP, and repurchase
agreements in the inter-bank market.
Equity base:
Banks were now required to increase their minimum capital to Rs. 10 billion by
end2010. Notably, banks minimum capital requirement (MCR) was rationalized
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 23
by the SBP in 2010. The MCR was revised in view of the prevalent challenging
economic environment, which had negative implications for banks profitability
and consequently their reserve accumulation.
Date
Equity (in billion Rs)
2007
544
2008
569
2009
660
Sep 2010 655
2011
2012
2013
Source: State Bank of Pakistan
Minimum
Paid
up
Capital(Net of losses)
Dead line by which to be
Increased
Rs 5 billion 31-12-2008
Rs 6 billion 31-12-2009
Rs 10 billion 31-12-2010
Rs 15 billion 31-12-2011
Rs 19 billion 31-12-2012
Rs 23 billion 31-12-2013
Page 24
Risk Assessment:
Credit risk
Credit risk is risk due to uncertainty in counterpartys ability to meet its
obligations. Credit risk is a major problem for Pakistani banking system. Credit risk
increased in 2010 because of unstable economic situation and weaknesses in the
operating environment along with devastations caused by recent unpredictable
floods and rains. As a result, NPLs again grew by 7.4 percent reaching Rs494
billion. Though the decline in advances in third quarter was usual this led to a
significant increase in NPLs. The major factors for decline in overall advances were
the; Unpredictable floods that affected credit operations. Risk-averse policies of
banks for increase in credit risk, especially by the bigger players Due to subdued
economic activity, banks became cautious in their lending business. This is visible
in the shift in their advances-mix from consumer and SME to corporate especially
the top-rated corporations faced a fall in advances, while several others faced a
marginal growth. However, growth by latter groups does not have any significant
impact due to their modest share in the system. Small banks share in advances
increased in the current quarter. In both public and private sector the contraction
of advances took place, mainly due to 6.5 percent decline in commodity finance
over the quarter. However the energy sector saw some growth in lending to
public sector corporations. Relative sharper decline in private sector shifted the
mix towards the public sector advances by 20 bps. Despite the overall decline, the
Corporate and Agriculture segments still managed to show some growth in
advances. The performance of both these sectors in terms of share in overall
loans remained relatively stable due to their scale of production, varied activity
and share in GDP. The growth in Agriculture segment was led by a single bank
holding 54 percent of agriculture portfolio various loan segments have shown
declining trends in fresh loan acquisition due to varied reasons. The decline in
commodity finance is cyclical in nature, whereas the depression in SMEs and
Consumer loans resulted from low credit demand, partly due to high interest
rates, high inflation and high degree of banks preference for managing existing
worthy borrowers.
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 25
Interest rate is another important factor of credit risk in the economy. Pakistan's
official interest rate reported in November 2010 was at 14.00 percent. Therefore,
the volatile interest rate alters the cost of borrowing which is linked to the
repayment capacity of the borrowers. In this respect, high government
borrowing, constant fiscal deficits and the rising inflation are largely to be blame
for the lending rates remaining in double figures.
Trends in deposits:
The deposits base of the banks declined by 4.9 percent from the year 2009 to
2010. The reason for this decline was the mainly the reduction between transfer
of deposits between banks and the deposits by customers also decreased. Further
due to Ramadan and pre Eid there were further borrowing which further reduced
the amount of deposits. But the investments in the national savings continued
constant and slow growth increasing the percentage of banks deposit to 34.5
percent during 2010. Deposits of the banking system posted a strong over-thequarter growth of 6.8 percent (YoY 13.5 percent). The banking system has been
facing a strong competition from Central Directorate of National Savings' (CDNS)
schemes in mobilizing deposits but flow of funds to CDNS has somewhat pacified
which helped banks to attract substantial growth in their deposit base.
Borrowings:
Borrowing on the other hand also lowered by 8.4 percent during Sep-10. Average
borrowings as a percentage of total asset lowered to 8.6% in Sep-10 compared to
8.8 percent in the last quarter.
Page 26
Profitability:
Profitability is very important for the smooth functioning of the banking sector.
The profitability of the banking system improved over the last year mainly due to
high net interest and non-interest income Profitability of the banking system
posted a gain of a (before tax) Rs 80.3 billion. In line with the increase in the profit
before tax, the profit after tax of the banking sector also posted a small decline
during the year 2010.Prevailing challenging environmental factors and banks
increased preference for low-return, risk-free assets continue to exert pressure
on banks profitability. However, high provisions and increasing administrative
expenses impeded the overall profitability. The profitability, however, varies
across banks. Improvement in ROA for banks with large assets base as opposed to
small sized banks indicates that earning performance of the banking system is
concentrated towards large sized banks with small sized banks under stress.
INVESTMENTS:
the asset mix of the banking system shifted towards the investments due to the
ongoing economic slowdown in economy. The investment portfolio of banks
particularly investments in government papers and bonds of PSEs grew
significantly and took the major share of the increase in banks' asset base.
Conclusion:
The banking sector of Pakistan is growing at a very fast pace. Due to the growth
and profits new banks are coming into the sector and are able to withstand this
difficult operating environment. Due to new entrants the competition is becoming
more intense than ever before. But still the older banks are dominating the
market share. Pakistanis on the other hand have major dislike for the interest
income therefore a large portion of 180 million populations does not use banking
services. Other than the dislike for banking sector some of the rural/semi-rural
areas are not reached by the banks. According to a world bank study on access to
finance published in 2008 estimated that only 14% of the population in Pakistan
uses banking services.
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 27
Other than low penetration and difficult operating environment, one of the
biggest challenges for Pakistan is increase in the non-performing loans and low
private sector credit demand as high lending rates and weak economy is adversely
affecting the borrowers payment capacity. Undergoing these economic
difficulties banks faced another problem which was the heavy flooding in Pakistan
during August 2010 that caused humanitarian disaster and changed the economic
outlook of the country. Some researchers believe that weak economic growth is
for a short run only. Due to all these challenges, Pakistans banking industry is
rebalancing its assets from advances to investment. Banks elements of credit risks
are clearly visible from their inclination to invest in government securities and
their preference to meet financing needs of the government rather than the
private sector.
Weighte %
d
average
deposit
ratefresh
deposit
Weighte %
d
average
deposit
rateoutstandi
ng
deposit
2011
Dec
2010
dec
5.11
6.01
7.06
7.41
5.01
5.43
5.88
5.91
6.14
6.70
4.13 3.66
200 2003
4
dec
Dec
1.78
Page 28
National Billi
savings
on
schemes- Rs.
outstandi
ng
amount
2395 2,264.
.1
4
1913.
5
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
June
7069,1
61
Million Rs.
Source: weekly statement of position which covers domestic operations of banks.
DSC
RIC
-8,759.1
40,663.0
-57,662.1 3,700.2
15,329.0
6,965.8
9,007.3
16,991.8
-273.4
13,802.9 8,277.1
-7,476.2
-5,800.3
-4,320.6
SSC
Prize
bonds
-83,311.9 9,357.0
Others
total
73,670.3
-49,706.8
82,768.0
6,000.9
74,470.4
67,651.4
69,153.5
86,639.5
Target
(90.5b)
Page 29
20082009
20092010
20102011
20112012
9,748.0
20122013
29,363.6
7,297.0
38,556.
7
46,946.0 43,961.0
41,083.
3
43,971.6 -52,834.1 56,324.
2
34,035.3 42,799.3
48,921.
2
actual
invest(89.5
b)
111,451.5 267,223.5
(267.20 b)
12.5%
112,034.8 224,767.7
Doubt
(225.70 b)
Target
(220b)
93,205.3 234,943.7
133,598.4 188,357.1
(188b)
Target
(146)
Actual (187
b)
179954.9 335,074.3
Deposit
mobilize is
(229.5b
july nov)
288.96 b
for feb
Page 30
Page 31
remained significant. It is mentioned that the profit rates on NSS has been
reduced from 0.5 per cent to 1.9 percent on different schemes. The new rates on
NSS components would be applicable on new deposits to be attracted by the
schemes
from
July
1,
2009.
Analyzing the impact of NSS profit rates cut on banking sector, the downward
revision complements expectations of monetary easing. However, the
government decision to finance the budget through NSS would call for relatively
higher returns compared to other investment opportunities, such as government
securities
for
corporate
and
bank
deposit
for
individuals.
1HFY09, banks assets growth got skewed towards investments as investments
growth of 35 per cent CYTD (Rs349b) while advances grew by a meager 0.2 per
cent (Rs5.6b). The asset growth during the period remained heavily dependent
on SBPs injection which is evident through relatively slow growth of 4.9 per cent
(Rs191b)
in
deposits
during
the
period,
he
added.
Considering the slow growth of money supply, we anticipate these trends to
continue in short term, at least till the sizeable foreign inflows materialise, which
are
expected
in
2QFY10
he
projected.
The govt has announced 1QFY10 targets of Rs325b and Rs30b for T-bills and PIBs
respectively, down by 38 per cent and 25 per cent on quarter-on-quarter basis.
However, target for NSS has been increased by 78 per cent to Rs231b for FY10,
which indicates higher reliance on NSS for budgetary financing, he added.
Earlier, the Federal government announced amendments in tax regulations for
provisions/bad debts by allowing provisions up to 1 per cent of advances.
Page 32
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attracted massive liquidity in the NSS since the return was increased significantly.
In FY09 there was significant upward revision in NSS rates in the consequences of
growing fiscal deficit, which attracted historic net flows of Rs250.1 billion, said
the SBP. Consequently, share of NSS in total deficit financing rose to 37 per cent,
from 10.3 per cent in FY08. However, by end FY10, the share declined to 20 per
cent with the decline in NSS rates, the report added.
Page 34
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till January, he said that about 132 billion have been invested till January. The
National Savings aims to launch new schemes including the Sharia Complaint
Paper to facilitate those who are interested in Islamic way of savings. The savings
on this assets-based paper would be on profit-loss sharing basis and it would not
include interests. This scheme would be launched during the current year,
Ghafoor added. The National Savings would also launch bonds/papers for
overseas Pakistanis in foreign currency to facilitate Pakistanis living abroad to
save their incomes adding that the project was in pipeline and under
consideration and would be finalized as soon as possible. To a question, he said
that the project of linking all the 371 centers of National Savings through online
computerization would be completed during next three to four years adding that
the PC-I of the project has already been approved by the government and work
was also going on. He said that the online system would connect all the 371
centers of the National Savings across the country to make the system userfriendly and facilitate the customers. Baloch said that interest on Defence Saving
Certificates (DSC) s from July 1, 2009 is 8.00 percent while after 10 years
(Compound rate) is 12.15 percent. Similarly the profit in Special Saving Certificate
Registered (SSCR) in the first five periods is 11.60 percent while in the last period
the profit rate is 12.00 percent per annum (pa) from July 1, 2009. He said that
average compound profit on the scheme is 11.67 percent (pa) from July, 1, 2009.
Baloch said that on Regular Income Certificates (RIC) is 12.00 percent per annum
from July 1, 2009. Likewise on saving accounts, the profit with cheque facility is
8.00 percent (pa) while without the check facility is 8.50 percent per annum from
July, 1, 2009. On Pensioners Benefit Accounts and Behbood Saving Certificates the
profit per annum is 14.16 percent from July, 1, 2009.
Page 36
preferences, especially the government, which has been away from bank deposits
to other non-bank sources in the current fiscal year. An SBP report stated that the
government had witnessed unusual deposit withdrawals at both federal and
provincial levels from large few banks during the last five months of the ongoing
fiscal year. This was in contrast to net inflows during the same period in previous
years. According to the report, banks customer deposit base grew by 1.0 per cent
during July-Nov FY11, compared with a decline of 0.1 per cent in the same period
last year. This growth appears to be driven by an exceptionally sharp inflow in the
month of November 2010 wherein the flow of banks deposits increased to over
Rs100 billion. Excluding November, deposit performance for July-October F11
showed a larger reduction than in the same period in past years. From July to
October 2010, deposits experienced a major decline of 1. 2 per cent, compared
with a drop of 0. 3 per cent in the equivalent month last year; and growth of 0.1
per cent for FY07. 08, the report said. The currency to deposit ratio, and, M3 to
M2 ratio, have been rising over the last couple of years. In particular, while an
increasing currency-to-deposit ratio indicates a change in preferences toward
holdings; the rise in M3 relative to M2 represents the growing competition banks
face in deposit mobilization from non-bank sources, most notably National Saving
Schemes (NSS), the report revealed. The imposition of withholding tax on
financial transactions and negative real returns on bank deposits are affecting the
deposit growth of the industry. Higher real returns, along with the security of
investments in NSS instruments have provided strong competition to banks time
deposits in recent years, it added.
Courtesy: Business Recorder
Page 37
Page 38
If the government wants to keep a source other than the banking industry for
the budget deficit open, it will have to increase profit rates of the national saving
schemes, said Muzammil Aslam, an analyst at JS Global Capital. According to
sources, the government may increase return on Special Saving Certificates to
11.83 per cent, an increase of 16 basis points over current rates of 11.67 per cent.
The authorities have also worked out 39 basis points increase in profit rates on
Regular Income Certificates. The return on RICs is likely be jacked up to 12.15 per
cent against existing rates of 11.76 per cent, official said. The Defense Saving
Schemes rates may jump to 12.26 per cent, an increase of 36 basis points over
present rates of 11.9 per cent. The rates of Behbood Saving Certificates and
Pensioners Benefit Accounts are already higher than the PIBs rates. However, the
government may also decide to increase profits on these schemes as well. After
the government banned institutional investment in national saving schemes last
year, the Central Directorate of NSS is struggling to achieve this years saving
targets. The NSS received new deposits of Rs109.5 billion from January 2011 to
January 2012, which is Rs9.3 billion or 7.8 per cent less than the net investments
received in the corresponding period of the previous year. The gross investments
during this period remained at Rs467.6 billion. However, an amount of Rs358
billion was either returned after maturity or withdrew by institutions in wake of
the ECCs ban.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 20th, 2012.
Page 39
According to a statement of CDNS issued here Friday said that the instant revision
has been made in the backdrop of current market scenario and in accordance
with the government's policy to provide market based competitive rate of return
to the investors of National Savings. As per Notification issued by Federal
Government the new rates for Special Savings Certificates(R)/Account, Regular
Income Certificate, Defence Savings Certificates and Savings Accounts has been
fixed at 10.80%, 11.04%, 11.50% and 7.40pc respectively.
Page 40
Moreover, the banks are more than eager to compensate for a shortfall in
investment in NSS, if any, and meet the government's budgetary requirements in
order to make more money from risk-free assets. All in all, the present reduction
in the rates on NSS would hurt investors financially but was necessitated by the
recent decision of the SBP to lower the policy rate and would be welcomed by
banks and also benefit the government. Lowering of rates could also adversely
affect the saving rate of economy but its net impact could only be marginal due to
the overwhelming influence of other factors on the savings of economy at the
moment and the size of the cut which is small.
Page 41
Page 42
Page 43
Page 44
been profitable for the last many years by just investing their money into
government papers which offered the return as high as about 14 per cent.
Page 45
shows that the amount mobilized by the government through this source could
be nearly as high as Rs 500 billion during FY13 as against Rs 188 billion during
2011-12. What could be done to reverse this trend and mobilize normal level of
savings from NSS is fairly obvious and intuitive. Of course, this undesirable
development is the result of certain growing weaknesses of the economy and the
financial system and if these are not properly addressed, NSS deposits would
maintain their present trend and continue to be the main source of financing the
budget deficit. The government is not offering higher rate of return on NSS only
on compassionate grounds, or for helping the disadvantaged sections of society
like senior citizens or pensioners, but to meet the growing gap between its
revenues and expenditures. It is, therefore, obvious that unless the provinces do
not share financial burden as expected after the latest NFC Award, higher
resources are not mobilized and expenditures shortened by the government and
budgetary support from other sources is not adequately available, it would not be
possible to reduce the overall fiscal deficit and lessen reliance on NSS.
Another factor which has popularized the NSS among the public and attracted
higher level of household savings through this source is the inefficiency of the
banks to play their intermediary role properly between savers and investors.
Lower rate of return on deposits due mainly to higher spreads coupled with the
growing opportunity of investment in government securities at reasonably
attractive rates and easy access to liquidity from the SBP has reduced the banks'
incentive to mobilize higher level of savings from the economy and channelize
them into productive purposes to energize private sector activity in the country.
Seen from all angles, it is clear that most of the savings of the economy, which are
already at a critically low level, are being used for government consumption and
not utilised for financing the credit requirements of the private sector which is the
principal source of promoting growth and generating employment. It is,
therefore, imperative that such a negative trend is arrested as soon as possible
with a view to revive growth impulses of the economy and contain future debt
servicing burden of the country within reasonable limits.
Page 46
Page 47
PROBLEM OF NSS
May 24, 2013
MUNIR
AHMED
SHAIKH
In fact National Savings Organization is undergoing the process of transformation
and modernization; in this regard 89 branches have been automated across the
country out of total 374 branches. The next phase of computerization is under
way and it is expected that by the end of 2015 all the NSCs under CDNS will be
fully computerized to provide state of the art facilities/ services to our valued
clients besides streamlining the operations. This will eventually lead to better
planning, monitoring and reporting. CDNS, however, feels it necessary to clarify
that NSS deposits are comprised of 90% individual investors. According to a
departmental analysis in 2011 it was observed that only 10% investments were
made by selected eligible institutions. It is worth mentioning that National Savings
National Savings (Comparative analysis of banks and savings centers)
Page 48
Page 49
REFERENCES:
Economic Updates - Pak Major Financial News
State Bank Publications
http://www.sbp.org.pk/fsr/2009/pdf/Special%20Section%201%20%20NPLs
%20-%20Cyclical%20or%20Structural.pdf
http://www.sbp.org.pk/fsr/2010/pdf/2GovernmentBorrowing.pdf
http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/FSA/2005/Chapter_3.pdf
http://www.sbp.org.pk/bsrvd/2010/C7.htm
http://www.sbp.org.pk/bsd/10YearStrategyPaper.pdf
http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/q_reviews/Q_Review_Sep_10.pdf
http://www.indexmundi.com/pakistan/gdp_real_growth_rate.html
http://www.indexmundi.com/pakistan/gdp_composition_by_sector.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/60258-economicsurvey-confirms-4-1-percent-gdp-growth.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/fields/2012.html
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16, Jul 2013, CEST. Welcome to the beta version of Econ Stats, the
Economic Statistics Database service provided by EconomyWatch.com.
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Lachlan McGregor is an economic consultant and was formerly Associate
Professor
of
Economics,
Monash
University
(http://www.abc.net.au/money/default.htm)
Page 50