ADR The Americas

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Annual Defence Report 2014: the Americas

The US military is re-engaging in Iraq despite its pivot to Asia and continuing budgetary difficulties, while
Canadian efforts to support Washington against the Islamic State have also highlighted issues of funding
and capability shortfalls. Meanwhile, the main role of Latin American militaries remains supporting the
region's police forces.
The United States
"Major combat operations in Iraq have ended," the then US president George W Bush announced in May
2003. "In the Battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed" and could now secure and
reconstruct the country, Bush said from under a banner stating 'Mission Accomplished'.
Eight years of fighting a devastating insurgency then ensued before current President Barack Obama in
October 2011 declared that he would end "America's military efforts in Iraq" and that nearly all US troops
would depart within two months.
Obama may have used less exuberant language, but he was no more prophetic.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) in June 2014 sent teams totalling 40 people back to Iraq to begin
'assessment operations' in an effort to help the Iraqi government repel an offensive by the Islamic State formerly known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant - after entire divisions of the US-trained Iraqi
Army collapsed when confronted by the militant group.
The DoD's involvement has steadily ramped up since then to include a campaign of airstrikes in Iraq and
Syria, as well as a larger ground presence for aiding Iraqi forces and eventually the training of 'moderate'
Syrian rebels. The US contingent is to soon total about 3,000 troops.
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The US Army announced in July that it had selected ScorpionW2, similar to what it now wears in
Afghanistan, as the new base combat uniform camouflage pattern that is to be phased in by 2018. (US
Army)
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This return to Iraq comes amid a continued 'rebalance' to the Asia-Pacific region, a mission to aid Ebola
treatment efforts in Western Africa, a larger rotational presence in Eastern Europe to reassure allies that
fear a bellicose Russia, and an unusual defence budgeting process hampered by political squabbling.
Congress has yet to complete work on its fiscal year 2015 (FY 2015) defence legislation - a stop-gap
Continuing Resolution (CR) is funding the government through to 11 December - and crafting the necessary
bills may, for the second consecutive year, require a procedural workaround to reconcile the House and
Senate version of the budget.
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Land
It has been a busy 2014 for the US Army and 2015 looks as though it will be equally hectic.
Army units - mainly headquarters staff and some rotational forces - have been sent to aide efforts to quell
a deadly Ebola outbreak in Western Africa, for counterterrorism and advisory missions in Iraq, and as a
counterweight to Russia in Eastern Europe.
The army is also continuing its element of the White House's 'rebalance' to the Asia-Pacific region and in
August began its 'Pacific Pathways' engagement programme with a battalion deploying to a variety of
international exercises in the Pacific region.
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US Army Pacific (ARPAC) expects to grow Pacific Pathways with at least three deployments in FY 2015 and
then three each year thereafter. Each training pathway is a series of stops - ARPAC commander General
Vincent Brooks envisions two to three stops per pathway - that ideally would be in three different
geographic areas to increase US Pacific Command's options for using those troops in the event of an
emergency.
Despite concerns regarding Russia's actions in Ukraine's civil conflict, the US Army still appears to be
sending troops back to the Pacific as deployments to Afghanistan are set to wind down in the next two
years.
There are now about 80,000 soldiers assigned to the Pacific, including the South Korea-based US 8th Army,
although the force posture there is to alter somewhat because the 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 2nd
Infantry Division, in South Korea is to be deactivated after being headquartered in South Korea since 1965.
Still, US combat power on the peninsula is likely to be unchanged as about 4,600 soldiers from the 2nd
Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, will replace the deactivated unit and mark the first brigade
combat team (BCT) to rotate into South Korea under a new nine-month deployment plan.
The AMPV is to replace the army's ageing M113s, which originated more than 60 years ago. The newest A3
model is shown here. (BAE Systems)
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Air
The US Air Force (USAF) in 2014 continued efforts to protect its three main modernisation efforts: the
Long-Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B), the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), and the
Boeing KC-46A Pegasus tanker. The only surprise move for aviation in the FY 2015 budget request was the
Pentagon asking Congress for USD1 billion for continued variable-cycle engine technology development.
To fully fund all these efforts, the USAF plans to reduce tactical air squadron numbers, including the entire
Fairchild Republic A-10 Thunderbolt II close-air support fleet. However, this retirement proposal has
encountered staunch opposition in the US Congress and the battle will likely continue when a newly
elected Republican majority takes its seats in January.
The USAF wants to divest legacy aircraft such as the A-10 in favour of more survivable aircraft in the next
five years. (Jamie Hunter)
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The fleet retirement issue is expected to become a larger one across the services as parochial interests in
Congress, and within the services, come up against budget realities and ageing fleets. Aviation leaders have
expressed concern that the military could be left with a 'hollow force' of too many types that it cannot
afford to keep current or fly as frequently as needed if they are barred from retiring them.
Meanwhile, US aviation replacement programmes have encountered difficulties. In June an engine defect
caused an F-35A test aircraft to catch fire upon take-off at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida. The entire JSF
fleet was grounded, meaning that the USMC's F-35B failed to make a planned appearance at the
Farnborough Air Show in the United Kingdom in July. Engine manufacturer Pratt & Whitney (P&W) agreed
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to pay for retrofits to the 156 F135 engines delivered to the Pentagon so far. The company, a division of
United Technologies, will also share the cost of any future design changes.
However, the USMC said it is still on course to declare its F-35Bs operationally deployable in July 2015 and
the Pentagon's F-35 manager has expressed confidence in funding stability for the programme as it
accelerates towards full-rate production.
There were more positive developments for the JSF programme when a USN F-35C conducted its first
arrested landing on an aircraft carrier, USS Nimitz (CVN 68), off the coast of California on 3 November.
An F-35C carrier variant conducts its first arrested landing on an aircraft carrier, landing on USS Nimitz (CVN
68) on 3 November off the coast of California. (US Navy)
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The USAF's X-37B OTV landed at Vandenberg Air Force Base on 17 October. The spacecraft conducted onorbit experiments for 674 days. (Boeing)
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Sea
Under continued budgetary pressures the USN in its FY 2015 budget proposal revealed a willingness to take
an axe to operational forces and some of its prized programmes.
Along with the proposition to sideline half of its Ticonderoga-class cruiser fleet and cap the Littoral Combat
Ship (LCS) acquisition plans at 32 while planners examined 'small surface combatant' alternatives, the navy
floated the forced option of retiring prematurely a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and
standing down its associated carrier air wing.
Should sequestration return in FY 2016 the navy would seek to decommission USS George Washington
(CVN 73) early to save USD6 billion rather than fund its mid-life refuelling and complex overhaul (RCOH): a
four-year process that would update the carrier to see it to the end of its intended service life.
In the FY 2015 budget proposal the navy included funds to de-fuel the carrier in preparation for either early
retirement or RCOH while deferring to the FY 2016 budget process the decision that would seal the
carrier's fate. Retiring George Washington early would require action from the Congress, as the USN must
legally maintain an 11-carrier fleet.
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Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73) leads US and Japanese ships during tactical
manoeuvre training in the Philippine Sea on 28 November 2013. As 2105 dawns the fate of this carrier is far
from certain. (US Navy)
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Despite the fiscal climate, several naval shipbuilding programmes achieved major milestones in 2014. In
October the navy commissioned the first of two new amphibious assault ships optimised for aviation: USS
America (LHA 6) was placed into service in San Francisco, California, after completing its maiden transit
around South America. The navy also commissioned its first Block III Virginia-class attack submarine, USS
North Dakota (SSN 784). The lead boat boasts a redesigned bow in addition to the new 87-inch diameter
Virginia Payload Tube. Its delivery was on schedule and below costs, despite its commissioning having been
delayed by several months because of rework on defective vendor-assembled and -delivered components.
In the first half of the year the navy received increased demand on its forces to support NATO efforts in the
Mediterranean and Black Sea in the wake of Russia's incursion into Ukraine. USN ships also played key role
in the Gulf and Middle East region as the United States and allied forces launched airstrikes against the
Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
Canada
In late November Canada's Harper government launched military strikes against the Islamic State forces in
Iraq. Surprisingly, as with previous attacks on Libya, conducted as part of the NATO mission there, the acts
of war took place amid continued cuts in defence readiness.
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According to Public Accounts of Canada documents obtained by local agency Canadian Press, annual
spending on equipment, weapon systems and procurement in 2013-14 fell by nearly CAD1 billion (USD880
million) since its peak in 2010-11. Ironically, the notionally defence-friendly Conservatives began their
tenure in power, which began in 2006, on a promising note.
As part of a 'Canada First' Defence Strategy, the government announced the intention to buy tens of
billions of dollars worth of major land, sea, and air equipment over the coming decade. Although
technically this strategy remains intact, few, if any, of those major procurements have materialised.
Delays, reconfiguring, and outright cuts have reached a point that Andrew Leslie, a former chief of Land
Staff, recently told a Liberal convention that the Conservatives had "the worst record" on military
procurement of any government in the last 50 years and that they are unable to "even buy a fleet of trucks
painted green".
The Harper government's most glaring problems relate to its plans to acquire 65 F-35s from Lockheed
Martin. Joining the other early JSF adopters would give local contractors lucrative opportunities, the
government had claimed, but estimates of the programme's cost - which was already slated to the largest
in Canadian military history - ballooned, eventually rising fourfold.
This forced the Harper government, which had skirted elementary procurement procedure by awarding
the contract without soliciting competitive bids, to announce a review of its policy.
Adding further uncertainty to the mix, late last month a Department of National Defence official told
reporters that funds will be made available to extend use of the country's existing 77 Boeing CF-18 Hornet
fighters by five years to 2025. The hope appears to be to postpone a decision on JSF until after the coming
election, scheduled to occur next year.
Meanwhile, things are going slightly better for Canada on the naval front. In 2011 the Harper government
announced the selection of shipyards on Canada's east and west coasts to build up the country's naval
capabilities as part of its National Shipbuilding Procurement Strategy. Irving Shipbuilding Inc was chosen to
build the CAD25 billion combat vessel portion, including Arctic patrol ships and a new fleet of surface
combatants. Seaspan Marine Corp was chosen to build CAD8 billion worth of non-combat craft, notably
support ships and science vessels. These contracts included hundreds of millions of dollars for Irving and
Seaspan to upgrade their yards, both of whom have made substantial progress. Earlier this month Seaspan
announced the completion of a CAD170 million modernisation of its Vancouver Shipyard facilities.
However, in recent months the Harper government's decision to commit Canada to the multi-decade effort
is starting to look suspect as well. True, that decision, which took place at time when arguably Canada's
largest yard (the facilities just south of Quebec City currently owned by Davie Yards Inc) was in
restructuring, looked good at the time.
Latin America
The Latin American region was devoid of interstate conflict during 2014, which means that there are few
triggers for large-scale conventional procurement in 2015. Nonetheless, the region remains relatively
violent due to a large number of criminal groups that traffic in humans, drugs, weapons, and other
contraband throughout the hemisphere.
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From Mexico to Argentina, through violence or corruption, non-state criminal groups continue to generally
surpass the capabilities of most of the region's police forces, requiring Latin American armed forces to play
a more active role in the support of internal security operations. The focused internal security role has
demanded increases in both mobility and ISR capabilities, including border, airspace, and maritime
surveillance.
However, Brazil is a marked exception as it finally kicked off a USD5.4 billion programme to buy 28 Saab
Gripen E and 8 Gripen F fighters by signing a contract in October. Pending delivery of its new, locally
assembled Gripens from 2018, Brazil is now negotiating for the loan of eight Swedish Gripen C/D fighters
that would arrive from early 2016.
Brazil has multiple continuing programmes, most of which are being developed locally, including
programmes for nuclear and conventional submarines (PROSUB), the Embraer KC-390 tanker-transport,
the EC725 helicopter, the Novaer T-Xc primary trainer, the Avibras ASTROS 2020 multiple rocket launcher
(MRL), and further development of the Guarani 6x6 armoured vehicle into a heavier 8x8 combat version
equipped with a 120 mm gun. A new 4x4 tactical armoured vehicle is expected to be selected in 2015, as is
a prime integrator for the SisGAAz Blue Amazon maritime surveillance system.
More indicative of the region, Venezuela has shifted its procurement trend from a previous heavy focus on
conventional weapon systems (such as 152 mm self-propelled howitzers, S-300 air defence systems, T-72M
main battle tanks, and Smerch 300 mm MRLs) to announcing over USD600 million in orders for coastguard
patrol vessels, light aircraft, and light armoured vehicles.
Up to 20 Norinco anti-riot vehicles and large amounts of other anti-riot equipment were delivered to the
National Guard in what appears to be preparations for further street-wide protests as economic hardship
and social unrest are in sight for 2015.
In 2014 Mexico's armed forces remain the most trusted security institutions in the country. The arrest in
April of Joaquin El Chapo Guzman, the leader of the powerful Sinaloa cartel, was followed by multiple
arrests or eliminations of other cartel leaders, most of which were performed by the armed forces. This has
led to a further vote of confidence in Mexico's armed forces, which have continued a comprehensive
modernisation programme that began in 2013.
Four new Northrop Grumman AN/TPS-78 radars achieved IOC in Mexico this year and local series
production of 1,000 DN-XI tactical patrol vehicles, 14 Damen Stan Patrol 4207 coastal patrol vessels, and
131,000 FX05 assault rifles continued in 2014.
Those milestones were followed by orders for 3,352 AM General Humvees, 23 Sikorsky UH-60M Black
Hawk helicopters, and four Airbus C295M transport aircraft to increase mobility; plus programmes for 60
Beechcraft T-6C+ Texan II armed trainers, eight King Air 350ER ISR aircraft, and 10 Airbus Helicopters AS565
Panther shipborne helicopters to enhance interdiction capabilities. The Mexican military will continue its
modernisation effort in 2015, next focusing on procuring radars, artillery, frigates, UAVs, and armour.
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An artist's representation of the Sikorsky S-92 in Presidential Helicopter colours. United Technologies'
Sikorsky Aircraft unit in May received a USD1.24 billion Pentagon contract for a fleet of 21 helicopters to
transport the president and other senior US officials. (United Technologies)
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Copyright IHS Global Limited, 2014

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