Energy, Process & Utilities

Improving Predictive Maintenance by

Leveraging Engineering Technologies

November 2013
Author:
Philippe AUDRAIN
Energy, Process & Utilities
Business Consultant Director
Dassault Systemes

Executive Summary
In todays highly competitive global economy plant operators in the Energy, Process & Utilities
industry are under constant pressure to maximize output while minimizing costs. In this
industry, production assets are operated on a 24x7 basis all year long. Operational costs
represent almost 60% of overall asset cost. A plant business unit might stay profitable or not
just because of the availability of equipment.
For several years operators have put maintenance strategies in place to optimize uptime
and minimize any type of shutdown. The focus is to put under control all parameters of a
production process, including equipment health. The ultimate target is to be in a position to
predict any future behavior as soon as one is perfectly aware of the current situation. Predictive
maintenance is the way to apply this strategy toward equipment health.
This paper summarizes the various techniques that have been successfully tested and applied
in the past decades. It also highlights the fact that none of these techniques is relevant in every
situation; each technique can be partially applied, but cannot provide efficient solutions in all
possible scenarios.
This paper explores new ways to approach the end-to-end challenge by introducing new techniques
from the engineering world, and by combining several other technologies.

Plant Asset Information Lifecycle Management

Current Predictive maintenance strategies do not fulfill overall

Plant owner needs
Equipment investment has a huge impact on the cost of final product in all heavy CAPEX
industries such as Energy, Process & Utilities segments. Consequently, the discipline of plant
and equipment maintenance has played a very important role in the last 30 to 40 years within
plant organizations. Dedicated solutions were developed to handle this activity as well as
possible and with the lowest cost impact.
CMMS (Computerized Maintenance Management Systems) were introduced in the late 1970s
to manage maintenance activity in parallel with operations. They initially focused on managing
spare parts and scheduling work orders using simple algorithms aligned with a curative
approach and some preliminary preventive measures. This first step significantly improved the
quality of maintenance by reducing the curative ratio. However, it still had a big impact on final
production cost.
The second stage in the late 1980s combined CMMS with MRP/ERP (Manufacturing Resource
Planning and Enterprise Resource Planning) for managing the production schedule to minimize
the negative impact of equipment maintenance. But still the maintenance strategy was not
optimized. Rather than a pre-defined cyclic part replacement (pure preventive approach), cyclic
inspection was introduced to try and reduce the turn around of spare parts.
Then in the 1990s, with additional improvement in technology (both IT and captors), new
strategies appeared to lower spare part turn around. Condition-based inspection and conditionbased maintenance appeared. The took advantage of information gathered from captors to set up
alerts that trigger inspection and/or work orders to prevent a failure before it happened.
Several improvements were then made to achieve a real predictive approach taking into account
the available information gathered in-situ. Rather than immediately going on-site to the
equipment when receiving an alert, more advanced approaches were used to monitor long-term
trends on parameters and that could anticipate the next future failure.
This is still the most current approach, but it has some constraints and inefficiencies:
The ability to collect relevant information at a relevant frequency to get efficient results.
The ability to analyze on-time the collected information to do efficient prediction.
This approach excludes the production schedule (so prediction of failure time and related
replacement request might impact production).
This is not a lifelike approachit looks for trends and correlations among parameters,
independent of the number of samples. It tries to create a model of normal behavior
and then derives the abnormal tendencies. The lifelike approach is to look at directly
abnormal cases/tendencies.

Plant Asset Information Lifecycle Management

The Basics of Prediction and the various predictive technologies

that apply
A plant is made up of a set of interconnected equipment/systems as well as attached
controllers/control systems. Efficient tools should be able not only to model plant equipment
by themselves, but also the controllers. And ultimately, it should be possible to integrate the 3D
aspect of those assets and its impact on their behavior.

Some definitions and principles

Prediction means being in a position (at a time = t) to describe the future status of a system and
equipment (at a time = t + dt).
This implies to have an explicit or implicit model of the system and equipment (to calculate or
extrapolate the future state with a reasonable level of confidence) requires the following:
To build the model and knowledge.
To validate and benchmark using well known/documented previous real situations to check
the accuracy of prediction on those reference cases.
To test enough situations to feel confident of coverage and scope and/or that the model is
accurate enough to be used in extrapolation mode on other untested situations.
The explicit approach is more precise, but is only valid on short future situation (shorter
dt). The implicit approach requires more complex algorithms, but can potentially be
applicable for longer dt prediction.
Alternatively (if no model is available) a pure stochastic black box approach can be used on
nondeterministic phenomena which leverages past experiences to identify some behaviors that
are potentially reproducible.
The predictive approach is natural human behavior. The incredible increase of IT and automation
capabilities in the last 20 years allowed the development of predictive strategies to enhance either:
Plant operation (to optimize throughput, yield)
Plant maintenance (to minimize failure)

Various approaches to build a reliable behavior model (process or equipment)

1. Empiric/heuristic/symbolic history analysis (the most common on-going option to do
predictive work):
Pure informal knowledge capture (experience)
Statistical analysis
2. White box explicit mathematical approach:
Physical equations model-based, if available
Rules-based (expert system, pattern recognition)
Decision tree/Fault tree (for diagnosis support)
3. Black box explicit mathematical approach (mainly to describe a chemical/transformation
process for advanced real-time control strategies):
Neural networks
SVM (Support Vector Machine)
Multivariable process step (and/or impulse) response model (mainly used for advanced
control of continuous process)
4. 3D multiphysics dynamic simulation
Takes into consideration the 3D nature of equipment and how they react to their
3D physical environment (3D influence is not included in the previously listed approaches).
Focuses on equipment behavior versus physical constraints (vibration, heat, etc...)

Plant Asset Information Lifecycle Management

Dassault Systmes brings multiple technologies that apply to

various prediction modeling approaches
Dassault Systmes has a huge portfolio of technologies that not only apply to engineering
activities, but can also be (and already are) successfully used for operation and maintenance
purposes. Both domains (engineering on one side and operation and maintenance on the other
side) require reliable models to be able to simulate a future process, replay a past event, or
predict a future event.

Empiric/heuristic/symbolic/stochastic approach
As already stated, this is the most commonly used approach today to do predictive
maintenance. Plant operators are leveraging the huge quantity of real-time and historical data
captured by captors, DCS (Distributed Control Systems) and SCADA (Supervisory Control And
Data Acquisition) or Historians. The analysis of this mass of data allows companies to identify
trends and extrapolate the future state of an on-going process. By setting up alerts in time, a
past breakdown can be avoided.
With EXALEAD SBA (Search Based Application) environment, it is easy and very efficient to
sort, filter, and extract meaningful information from massive collections of data with extended
dashboarding capabilities.
With DELMIA OI (Operation Intelligence) technology, prescriptive analytics capabilities can be
provided in a maintenance scenario.
This technology can extract hidden rules from a series of values related to various parameters
that have a priori no strong interactions together.
Prescriptive analytics combines big data,
mathematical sciences, logic, and
machine learning to empirically reveal
the origins of the most complex
problems, and then suggests decision
options to solve them.
Rule learning engine based on a
supervised stochastic learning algorithm
what-if simulation scenario provides
guidelines to reduce risks

Plant Asset Information Lifecycle Management

White Box mathematical approach

Dassault Systmes provides multiple modeling technologies.

Dymola supporting functional model approach

Dymola is based on the Modelica open source language. It provides a functional system with
modeling capabilities applicable to all types of complex equipment systems (or a full plant which
is a system of systems). Modelica is widely used in the power generation industry and has
many available libraries of components and standard equipment, such as boilers, heat exchangers,
compressors, etc.
Modelica can be used not only during preliminary studies of new plants to size equipment, but
also during the actual life of plants to study dynamic behavior of the plant itself during start-up,
transient phases, and shutdown, as well as to diagnose material degradations.

SD9/FT9 supporting dysfunctional model approach

SD9 (Safety Designer) is another modeling technology, based on another language called
AltaRica. It allows you to build system models with dysfunctional description (using failure
modes such as FMEA and MTBR). By using SD9 you can determine the final consequence of a
failure within a system. SD9 can predict the propagation of the failure within the interconnected
components and deliver a final status.
You can combine SD9 with FT9 (Fault Tree analyzer), a complementary solution that enhances
the efficiency of the overall approach.

Example: Purpose of doing a

Dynamic Modeling a combine
cycle power plant
Check precisely the
performances and the design
given by manufacturers
(commissioning)
Verify and validate by
simulation the scenario of a GT
trip, startup and shutdown
Find optimized operating points
and optimization method for
operators
Integrate the model in operating
or engineering software (local
and remote monitoring)
Control system validation

3D multiphysics dynamic simulation approach

SIMULIA Abaqus supports a 3D multi-physics dynamic model approach
All the previous approaches are 1D methodsthey do not take into account the 3D
characteristics of equipment. However, the 3D geometry may influence the behavior of those
assets in their environment.
With SIMULIA Abaqus, we take care of geometry using FEM (Finite Element Method). SIMULIA
brings multiphysics dynamic models to simulate the behavior of a piece of equipment facing
physics constraints such as vibration or heat. You can apply those constraints on the geometry
of new equipment, as well as on the modified geometry of old equipment (including the 3D
defects related to the previous life of the equipment) to predict its remaining lifetime before a
dramatic failure.

SIMULIA Isight: automation of tests and activities

This workflow engine is able to automate a series of tests and simulations executed with
multiple tools. It also enhances the productivity of such activity by applying various
optimization methods (such as plan of experience) to achieve the best results. Isight can also
be used to automate SIMULIA (or any other simulation tool) tests.

Plant Asset Information Lifecycle Management

Why and how to combine several technologies to improve

predictive maintenance
Each approach and technology has its own area of optimal efficiency regarding failure prediction
(for example, using a with prescriptive or predictive approach, starting with failure modes, etc.).
Combining several approaches allows companies to cover a wider spectrum of events, which is
critical when dealing with events that are not known in advance.
For instance, it is possible to combine:
A top-down physical model-based damage prediction approach
A bottom-up semantic network (fault tree) diagnostic support approach

Instruction for maintenance on a

simulated operating plant

Figure 1 One dimension functional and dysfunctional system analysis

This increases efficiency and allows companies to perform efficient predictive safety analysis,
such as the Eurosyslib project initiated by the European consortium of companies in the
nuclear sector.

Plant Asset Information Lifecycle Management

 Dassault Systmes 2014, all rights reserved. CATIA, SOLIDWORKS, SIMULIA, DELMIA, ENOVIA, GEOVIA, EXALEAD, NETVIBES, 3DSWYM, 3DVIA are registered trademarks of Dassault Systmes or its subsidiaries in the US and/or other countries.

Figure 2 Elements of the Safe Plant Operation solution experience

Dassault Systmes recommends the Safe Plant Operation industry solution experience, which is
based on a single 3DEXPERIENCE platform and merges various applications with these benefits:
Directly enabling predictive maintenance (such as the ones listed above)
Supporting adjacent processes (such as virtual training of maintenance operators, plant
asset information lifecycle, spare part intelligence)

This environment will change the game of predictive maintenance. For details about
the Safe Plant Operation industry solution experience, visit the Dassault Systmes
website at www.3ds.com/industries/energy-process-utilities.

Our 3DEXPERIENCE platform powers our brand applications, serving 12 industries, and provides a
rich portfolio of industry solution experiences.
Dassault Systmes, the 3DExperience Company, provides business and people with virtual universes to imagine sustainable innovations. Its world-leading
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