Lecture 3- Population Growth

9/21/2013
Human Population Growth Curve (1200- 2000)

Year

# of People on
Earth (10^9)

1492

0.25

1650

0.50

1950

2.50

1975

4.00

1987

5.00

1990

5.30

1991

5.40

2013

7.00

Populations change in size very rapidly

Often in local populations, changes are noticeable within a persons lifespan
e.g WHen you move into a town and 20 years later the pop has increases
World population has increased rapidly since the presence and expansion of humans
around 1492 when Columbus discovered America

Since then as seen above weve been experiencing a geometric curve growth (i.e
population explosion)
There are more people living in China today than there was in the world in 1650!!
Between 1950-1975- Jump of 1.5 billion in 15 years (WOW!)
Population growth is not continuous, it can be interrupted by:
Disease
War
Famine
Many other calamities and natural disaster
Adverse effects of Increases in Population
Depletion of Natural Resources
Pollution
Destruction of land and habitats
Production of solid and hazardous waste
Increase need of housing
Decrease of food availability
Increase in disease
Decrease in job opportunities
Psychological problems which arise from sharing space
Population Size is limited by:
Limitation in space
Limitation in nutrition
Famine and Disease
Social Forces
(e.g. Gov't limiting the amount of children citizens can have)
Temperature variations/restrictions
O2 levels
Economics
We need to be able to predict our future pop. growth so we can plan!!!
We need to know how many/much schools, highways, food, etc we will need
1766-1834: Thomas Robert Malthus(english economist) predicted that the population
would increase more rapidly than food supply
His prediction didnt come true because of rapid growth of modern agricultural
technology
In his Essay on the Principles of Population (1798) he predicted that any
uncontrolled pop. would eventually deplete their food supply
He was correct in saying that there are limits in earths capacity to support its
inhabitants
Top 10 Overpopulated Countries in 2009
1. China - 1.3 billion people
2. India - 1.1 billion people
3. U.S.A - 306 million people
4. Indonesia
5. Brazil
6. Pakistan
7. Bangladesh
8. Nigeria
9. Russia

10. Japan - 127 million people

Population Growth Curves help us to visualize certain kinds of growth we observe:
1. Arithmetic Curve- As time increases population
increases in a constant rate

2. Oscillating Curve: Wavering in the population size 3. S- Shaped or Sigmoid Curve:

Slow increase in pop. followed by a
rapid one and then leveling off

4. Geometric Curve - As time increases population

increases at first gradually and then taking off

5. Extinction Curve

Demography: sociology dealing with the statistical characteristics of human populations

with reference to the total size, density, deaths, disease, migration, etc
Demographer : studies how a population changes in time by counting the number
of vital events (births, deaths, marriages, and migrations)
They look at the distribution in a population (age and sex) which affects
growth rate
Population Ecology: studies the population dynamics of a species of plant or animal
Population Ecologist : studies the geography of a region (climate, food supply,
predation, etc)
Predation can be interspecific (competition between species) or
intraspecific (competition within a species)
Growth Rate: determined by the birth and death rates and we can compute it!!
1. Absolute Difference: The difference in populations over a span of time
Year
Population
1950
152 million
1975
213 million
Absolute Difference = (Pop. in 1975) - (Pop. in 1952) = 213 million - 152 million = 61 million
2. Rate of Growth: (Pop. in 1975) - (Pop. in 1952) X 100 X 25 years =1.6 % Increase/ yr
(Pop. in 1952)
3. Doubling time of the population (td) : Time a population would take to double in size
assuming growth rate is CONSTANT
Very low in countries in Latin America and many developing countries
Very high in stable developed countries (e.g. Russia and the U.S)
4. Rate of Natural Increase: Total # of Births - Total # of Deaths
Total Population
Ex: In 1931 Candy Land had recorded birth and death rates of 100 and 30
respectively. If the total population in 1931 was 2,800 candy people, calculate the
predicted rate of natural increase.
100 Births - 30 Deaths = 0.025 = 2.5 % Rate of Natural Increase
2,800 Total Pop.

All of the above calculations can only be rough indicators for the future
More accurate numbers must be based on the age and sex distribution of the
current population
General Statement about Human Populations:
1. Probability of dying varies according to age around the world
a. P (Dying in Infancy) = Very high
b. P (Dying ages 10-50) = Very low
c. P (Dying ages 50 + ) = Very high
2. There are more males than females in the world
3. Females have a higher probability of surviving longer
a. Exceptions:
i. Medical care during birthing if not under modern care
ii. Famine

iii. Child Mortality

iv. Changes in Social and Economic conditions

Population Pyramid - graphical representation of population size by age and sex

-Wide Based Population Pyramid - Can be interpreted as
depicting rapid population growth.
* Example of a country experiencing this pyramid: Mexico

- Narrow Based Population Pyramid - Can be

interpreted as depicting slow population growth

- Pinched Base Population Pyramid - Can be

interpreted as depicting population decline
- Ex: Sweden in the 60s

Mortality- number of deaths which occur in a given period of time

Natality- number of births which occur in a given period of time

Life Expectancy at Birth (e0) - Predicted lifespan of a newborn child

List of e0 in 1990:
Japan - 79.1 years (1st in the world)
Switzerland - 77.6 years (2nd)
Iceland - 77.4 years (3rd)

Israel - 75.2 years (16th)

USA - 75.0 years (17th)
Now: Males 83 and Females: 85
Romania - 69.9 years
Soviet Union 69.8 years
Hungary 69.7 years (33rd)

TFR (Total Fertility Rate)- Total number of children a female can be expected to bear
during the course of her lifetime if birth rates remain constant for at least one generation
Replacement Rate - The value of TFR corresponding to a pop. which exactly
reproduces itself
i.e. A couple has two kids and those two kids will have two kids to replace
them when they die
Not always effective b/c this rate varies in developed and developing
countries
Developed Countries (US, Russia, Japan, etc) ~ 2.1 RR / woman
Underdeveloped / Developing Countries ~ 2.5 RR/ woman
Higher because they have a lot of children but many die in
childhood
Validity vs. Reliability
Validity- Determines if the test measured what it intended to measure
Reliability- Determines the consistency of the results (i.e can the results be
duplicated).
Effects of a Demographic Transition on Population Growth:
Before Transition
Very high birth and death rates
e.g. 1965 - 1970 in Angola and Afghanistan: Few children survive
the hazards of disease to become reproductive adults.
Population was stable or slowing growth
Demographic Transition
Period of very high population growth rate due to the combined effects of a
decrease in death rate and constant birth rate.
After Transition
Low birth and death rates
e.g. 1974- Switzerland and the Netherlands.
Population is stable or slowly growing
How do we explain this demographic transition?
Poor Agrarian Countries/ Society: Children are an economic asset
Death rate is high and parents want to have many children to help with the
agriculture
Parents are also dependent on children in older years
They have many children because some will not survive
Wealthy, Industrialized, Urban Citizens: Many children are an economic liability
Parents must pay for the education, food, and clothes for each children
and provide for them all the necessary resources
As a result fewer babies are born
Less kids are needed for heavy work
Overall Growth Rate in the World

Mid 1969 ~ 2%
This means that 180,000 babies are born each day. This adds 65 million
individuals to the world pop. every year
1990 ~ 1.8 %
Keeps decreasing currently
td of the world population in 1975 = Only 35 years and continuing to decrease
Latin America td= 24 years
Africa td = 28 years
VS.
Europe td = 88 years
USA td = 78 years
Population Policies
In the past, gov't policies have nearly all been in favor of many births (bigger
armies)
Recently, govts are encouraging smaller populations around the world
E.g.s. Basic themes in which the govt has been directly influencing pop.
growth. The govt can also discourage pop. growth. All of the following
policies in the 70s.
1. India 1974 - Raised the minimum age for marriage to lower births (i.e. shorten the
childbearing years of women)
a. 1978 - India said sterilization is now compulsory on fathers w/ 2 children
2. Great Britain and Scandinavian Countries - Birth control was legal
3. France, Belgium, and the Netherlands- Birth control was semi-legal
a. Couples could use only for medical reasons
4. Italy, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal - Birth control completely illegal
a. Main Reason: Catholicism
5. France- Provided subsidies for each child born to a family
a. This was because of the population decline periods they were facing after
WWI and WWII
6. Japan- Encouraged birth control for many years due to lack of space
a. Now, the emergence of a cheap labor force market has recently made
them want more births
7. Singapore- Restricted paid maternity leave and the education available to only two
children per couple
8. Romania- 1978- Opposite than Singapore they limited access to contraceptive
devices in order to increase population
9. China- In 1988 they passed the 1 child law.
a. In the rural areas, if the first born was a female the couple was allowed to
try again to conceive a male
b. They considered boys to be better because:
i. They considered them to be better farmers
ii. They thought they would be more responsible for taking care of the
parents in an old age
iii. They did kill females at some point!
iv. Even with this law, the population has risen from 1.1 X 109 people
in 1992 to 1.3 X 109 people in 2009.
Techniques for Prevention of Birth:
Contraception (e.g. pills, spermicidal agents, IUD (Intrauterine Device), etc)

Sterilization
Induced Abortion
Late 70s Policies on Abortion around the World:
1. Columbia and Ireland - Abortion illegal under all circumstances
2. Guatemala and Indonesia- Abortion legal only to save the life of the mother
3. Australia and West Germany- Abortion legal to maintain the health of the mother
4. Norway and Czechoslovakia- Abortion legal for eugenic reasons
a. Eugenic reasons- to prevent the birth of a child with severe birth defects
5. Poland and Argentina- Abortion legal only in cases of rape or incest
6. USA, USSR, and Denmark- Abortion legal at the mothers request regardless of
the reason
Family Planning - Not the same as birth control
Help is given to all couples, those who wish to prevent pregnancy and those who
need help getting pregnant
Taiwan encouraged not too many children being born, but now they
encourage growth and accept family planning
As of 1999, every time your heart beats 3 more babies are added to the world
population!
Each day, 236,000 babies are born
Each year around 84 million more people
They predicted that in 12 years the world will have an additional 1 billion people
which proved to be true!!
In 1963- World Growth Rate of 2.2 %
1998 - World Growth Rate of 1.43 %
World Population Growth Rate of 1.43% added 84 million people/ year
China and India together make up 38 % of the entire world population
USA with 270 million at the time (Now well over 300 million) had the 3rd largest
population
USA only contributes to 4.6 % of the world population
1998- World Wide TFR ~ 2.9 kids / couple
Developed Countries ~ 1.6 kids / couple
Developing Countries ~ 3.3 kids / couple
Underdeveloped Countries ~ 5.6 kids / couple
In 2025 the total population is expected to reach 8 billion people
Exponential population growth
Each birth brings enormous environmental impact
The TFR must decrease to 2.1 children / women for the population to stabilize
Predicted to occur sometime this century
U.S has the highest fertility rate and immigration rate of any industrialized country
By the year 2050 its predicted that here in the US the pop. will be 383 million
people
1946 - 1964 - Baby Boom in the US as soldiers returned from WWII
Useful ways to test the health of a country:
Life Expectancy at Birth
Infant Mortality Rate
USA IMR- 7 deaths for every 1,000 births
Although this seems very little, 32 other countries had a lower IMR in 1998.