GENERAL SECURITY SITUAITION IN PAKISTAN

PARTICULARLY IN KARACHI, ISLAMABAD AND THREAT ANALYSIS

(The art of security lies in being so open about most things that
the few things that matter are not even suspected to exist)
1.
General.
Pakistan is now seemingly on a sustainable democratic path, the fact that has
been recognized by many international set up, donors and world survey report.
Beside political stability economic sustenance, however it is a need of the hour, the peoples
prosperity and countrys security. An initiative has been taken on this account and there is hope of
economic revival and Pakistan becoming a progressive security state and people living in peace and
harmony.
Security is the degree of resistance to or protection from harm,. It applies to any vulnerable and
valuable asset such as a person dwelling community organization or nation. Security provides a farm of
protection where a separation is created to the assets and the threat which is generally called control.
Pakistan is locked in a long war with Al-Qaedas regional affiliate. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP) - a multifarious body comprising of an assortment of Jihadist groups harking back to the Afghan
adventure of the eighties, and later sparing out as consequence of incoherent foreign vs, domestic
policy matrices. In December 2007, shortly after the Lal Masjid incident, 13 of these groups united under
the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud and formed the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Today, the TTP poses a serious national security challenge to Pakistan, having strengthened its
hold in various parts of the tribal belt, in particular, Waziristan, where it has supplanted the old
administrative system with its skewed interpretation of Shariah. On account of its theological appeal
TTP enjoys massive patronage in terms of man and material from: (a) groups and individuals subscribing
to numerous smaller extremist outfits with big nuisance value; (b) a nod from the political Right, in
addition to (c) lone wolf terrorists or grass-root Jihandists drawn in by the Global Jihadist Movement on
account of Pakistans proximity with Afghanistan.
2.
Extremism Cycle in Pakistan. Extremism has emerged as a real threat to Pakistans peace
and security. There is hardly a discussion about its root causes, everybody either on dialogue or non
military operation. But what next after either kind of approach? The issue lies in society and no one
seems serious about structural changes in societal behavior that actually transforms a person into an
extremist. He or she may initially have only some tendencies of extremism or was only following what
they consider the religious duties and practices. The same society, after transforming him into a
rudimentary extremist, expels him from the mainstream towards extremist groups. The disclosed parts
of recently disseminated national security policy come into view, completely silent, on this aspect. It also
visualizes only mix solution, based on politico-military efforts but not approaching on for any positive
change in societal behavior, at large. It doesn't not defines tools that can fix problems, in a way it never
comes back, again and again.

In the past both of these approaches have proved partially effective and could only bring short
lived peace and stability in the affected areas of Pakistan. The late Taliban Commander Naik Muhammad
or his other like Mollana Sufi Muhammad were able to conclude peace agreements after the dialogue
process, but peace and security environment was short lived.
In a similar manner, military operations also remained ineffective in eliminating the extremists
groups. They could only restrict them in their caves and on mountainous jungles. The studies; have
revealed that in the past few years, the extremist groups have been strengthened in Pakistan in terms of
numbers. New people are joining these extremist group. Why are new people leaving the mainstream
society to join outlaws extremist groups? Experts provide some explanations for this rapid spread of
extremism in society like poverty, illiteracy, religious fanaticism, oppression, unemployment, injustice.
The aspect that is possibly most problematic and deep rooted in society is often neglected by
the experts and policymakers. Pakistan society condemns the extremism, yet it helps produce new
extremists in large through its negative attitude. If a person with a beer enters in a cinema or music club
or does any other activity, people would start criticizing him that he is not supposed to do this, even if
the critics would themselves be doing the same thing. Society imposes certain unseen norms and values
on a person with a beer and wants the society to see this common man live and behave like a saint. This
societal approach gradually isolates such a person from the mainstream and this informal isolation leads
him to find like-minded persons and ultimately this search takes him towards hard-line extremists. In
the second phase, these hard-line extremists tell a new comer that actually he has chosen the right
path. All the other are even not true follower of Islam, but also have certain fears from Islamic Sharia.
This is the reason they are against every single person like you that only adopts religious practices. After
some initial meetings, the elder, the respected hard line; among extremists, convinces him through
polite lectures how glory of Islam can be established. He would tell him, there is a dire need for Islamic
revolution and this revolution demands Jihad and other sacrifices from us. He becomes convinced and in
the final phase of extremism, he is shifted to an extremist training centre to prepare for the so-called
Jihad against the people of Pakistan to impose Islamic sharia that belongs to his group and so on, the
same cycle continuous primarily due to negative societal behaviors.
The first ever National Internal Security Policy (NISP) is formulated to protect national interests
of Pakistan by addressing critical security issues as well as concerns of the nation. It is based upon
principles of mutual inclusiveness and integration of all national efforts and includes three elements viz
(i) dialogue with all stakeholders, (ii) isolation of terrorists from their support systems, (iii) enhancing
deterrence and capacity of the security apparatus to neutralize the threats to internal security of
Pakistan. This requires integrated efforts through an institutionalized monitoring framework under
democratic leadership to elicit support and cooperation of local and international stakeholders.
Global terrorism and armed conflict in Afghanistan have changed the internal security paradigm
of Pakistan. Pakistans economy has suffered approximately a loss of more than US$78 billion in last 10
years only. More than 52,000 Pakistanis, including civilian, Armed Forces and Law-Enforcement Agencies
(LEAs) personnel, were affected or sacrificed their lives. This challenges the resolve and resilience of
people of Pakistan for peace.

Internal Security environment is dominated by non traditional threats of extremism,

sectarianism, terrorism and militancy. In present form, the internal security apparatus is inadequately
equipped and enormously strained to tackle these threats. This elucidates the dire need for a
comprehensive and inclusive response plan, as no single state agency is capable of dealing with such
threats on its own.
3.
Threat Perception
Pakistan is facing serious traditional and non-traditional threats of
violent extremism, sectarianism, terrorism and militancy. This has adversely affected economic stability
and social harmony and continues to instill a sense of insecurity among the people at large.
Subversive activities, pattern of targeting the national security apparent and key installations by
the terrorists and non state armed groups have compounded the challenge. Faced with the complexity
of the situation. Recent attack on Armed Forces Officers in Fateh Jang and attack in Karachi air port is
point in question.
Terrorist networks lurk in shadow and thrive on a strategy of invisibility and ambiguity. They
operate in an ideologically motivated network of embroil the State on Physical, psychological and
ideological levels.
The widespread spectrum of internal threats is a critical impediment to economic development
and social cohesion. Traditionally, the entire internal security apparatus acts in a reactive rather than
proactive manner.
Terrorism has not only affected the socio-cultural environment but it has also damaged the
scarce existing infrastructure in Pakistan by way of frequent attacks on educational institutions,
healthcare facilities, communication network and supply of energy within the country . Following are
among the preferred targets of miscreants in Islamabad / Rawalpindi:*

Military / security agencies installation.

Key installations in Red Zone (President/PM Houses/Secretariats, Parliament House etc)

Foreign Missions/nationals and their concerns/ Diplomatic enclosure (Dip community)

Prominent personalities including politicians/election candidates and officers of civil /

military bureaucracy.

4.
Current Terrorism/Security Threat Levels.
levels in Islamabad and Karachi:-

Following is the assessment of current threat

Threat Level 1.
No threat at all to expats, families and interests, except isolated
possibilities of muggings, petty thefts and stealing. No special precaution is required in traveling
Threat Level 2.
General Law and order problem in parts of the country. Basic precaution
required in travelling outstation. Caution and observation required against particular threats
building up. No particular threat to families.

Threat Level 3.
Serious law and order problems building up in some parts of the
country. Travel restrictions may be imposed. Families to remain within Islamabad or within
homes unless extremely necessary to travel . Evacuation plans may be made ready. Still livable
but high degree of caution is required all the time.
Threat Level 4. Threat of Limited war, social chaos and collapse of civil administration
happening or expected in certain parts of the country. Complete travel ban to be imposed
towards trouble regions. All staff, families and personal to remain restricted within Islamabad
or indoors. Evacuation of families and extra staff from the troubled regions can begin; keeping
only a rear guard team may be kept to look after interest.
Threat Level 5.
Full blown war, civil war, total collapse of law and order, invasion/
occupation of the country. The rearguard team to get into their embassy and consulates and try
to get out of the country (unlikely to happen / rare circumstances).
5.
Karachi.
All the political parties are to be blamed for the violence in Karachi but none will
own up the responsibility. No matter what the problem is, they will find a way to absolve themselves of
blame and pass the buck to another actor. This tendency manifests itself most often when parties
accuse rivals of harboring criminals and patronizing target killers and extortionists without looking in the
mirror at themselves. But it has now afflicted every aspect of governance, as shown in the Supreme
Court when the provincial and federal government blamed each other for the month-long delay in
naming the new IG of Sindh. Technically the responsibility for the appointment belongs to the provincial
government after the 18th Amendment devolved such powers to the provinces but the provincial
advocate general said that the centre and recommended unsuitable candidates for the vacant position.
The federal government , in the form of the deputy attorney general, reversed the accusation saying
that the chief minister refused to take action and hold meetings over the issue. The chief justice rightly
pointed out that this dispute is for the province and centre to solve on its own but that the constant
sniping and void in the police was affecting law enforcement in Karachi.
Police appointment that affect law enforcement in Karachi may be among the most fraught
postings around. No matter who is chosen, opposition parties will cry themselves hoarse complaining
that the appointment are political and meant to target them. The government of the day, meanwhile,
will prove the truth of these accusations by using such appointment to reward allies and target their
opponents. The PPP government was accused of doing just that when it promoted officers who had
been part of the operations against MQM in the 1990s, including AIG Shahid Hayat. Now that the MQM
has joined the provincial government and it ostensibly an ally one might expect such sniping to end.
That will not happen. Politics in Karachi is always kept separate from that of the rest of the province,
with parties willing to work on other issues but still wary of each other in Karachi. The federal
government adds to the problem by seeing in Karachi the countrys each cow and is desperate to get
involved in its government and law- and order issues. The active involvement of so many parties leads
only to disagreement and paralysis of the kind that the Supreme Court has not taken notice of.
It will not be wrong to say 'to tell people the truth about the reasons why not achieved much
success in restoring peace in Karachi. The extra powers of the Rangers were supposed to have following

of the Supreme Court verdict on the Karachi law and order case remain on paper only; These powers
have not yet been transferred. And that the Rangers have limited rights to carry out raids, check, and
make arrests. We are still bound to hand over every suspect to the police after arrest. Rangers have
been complaining about political interference before the apex court. In short, the paramilitary forces
work is being hindered by the police and politicians.
None of this is new, though; what's different now is the central role the Rangers have been
playing in the ongoing campaign to establish peace. These issues have been raised during the periodic
hearings the apex court has been holding for about three years on the Karachi law and order situation.
It has been pointed out time and again that inductions in the police department have been made mostly
on the basis of political loyalties rather than merit, which affect its performance. To make a bad
situation worse those involved in targeted killings, extortion and kidnappings also use political influence
to defy the law. At one point no less than an official of Sindh IG had told the court that 40 percent of the
police officers under him had been recruited on political grounds, thats why he was reluctant to act in a
decisive manner. It is not difficult therefore to understand the frustration felt by the Rangers. The time
and effort that goes into arresting dangerous criminal usually goes to water when the police either
release them or book them for minor offences such as an extortionist getting charged for a petty theft.
No wonder despite the Rangers presence in the city for over two decades, peace has remained an
elusive commodity.
It is pertinent to recall here that the office of provincial police chief has remained vacant for
several months because of Sindh governments reservations. Out of the three names the federal
government had suggested as per the rules, none has been found suitable for the job. The obvious
explanation is that the provincial government wants somebody pliable enough to willingly respond to
the demands of his political bosses. As the apex court is seized with the issue, it is hoped that a workable
solution will be found to address the Rangers grievances that gives them the freedom and resources to
do their work without let or hindrance. And for the sake of the collective good of Karachis residents, the
province must have a police chief who can rise above narrow personal or political considerations.
6.
Islamabad / Rawalpindi.
Both Islamabad and Rawalpindi are calm and cool. No activities
of terrorist are seen in near past. Threat levels are at level 3 due to road disturbances, street protests
and threats of rioting. Avoid all high profile Public places for a few days and drive with caution even
within Islamabad.
7.
Peshawar/NWFP/Baluchistan/North Areas and AJK. In Peshawar, Threat levels are at 3.
Threats of random terror remains against government, private and Military targets. The political
protests are absent in Peshawar for now But threats of terrorists remains. Threat levels in other NWFP
cities and towns like Kohat, Dera Ismail, Mardan would be 3 for the next week.
In Baluchistan as well, BLA activity is present, though lower, but in some pockets of Dera Bugti
they have starred to engage security forces but are taking losses. Threat levels are at level 3 in Quetta,
level 3 in tribal and interior regions.
Kashmir is OK and so does northern regions of Gilgit and Diamer and for now the situation is
under control and one can travel to the regions.

Despite all these looming threat which is short lived, general environment and atmosphere of
complete Pakistan specifically Islamabad and Karachi including GT Road, Indus Highway, Motor Way,
Air routes and Sea routes. All are peaceful and safe.
8.
Analysis and Response. Pakistan has a high probability to transform into a security state from a
republic if one sees the present 10-page document. There are four arguments that can be presented for
Pakistans vulnerability to become a potential security state; one, having unresolved Kashmir issue,
Baluchistan and Karachi security problems, Shia-Sunni clash, and spill-over effect of the on-going war in
Afghanistan. Out past history of wars with the neighboring India and military strategy which focused
on external border threats and infiltration through porous borders, have raised the threat perception
to significantly higher levels, making military and bureaucracy security conscious with a need o avoid
trauma and trouble at any cost. Unfortunately since our military has a tendency to step in, invited or
uninvited, as a savior, there should be a mechanism to take them on board before finalizing the
document as an effort to keep them a mile away from democratic process.
We also have history of economic depression, migration, population boom and joblessness
which while providing breeding grounds for criminal activity and prospective future induction grounds
for criminals, funded either from inside or abroad, is a constant headache. The martial laws have
actually been quite successfully used as a tool to ensure public order, introduced reforms and counter
any revolutionary movement both in parliament and the public in the past, and martial law being an
instrument of security state stays at the back of our mind always. Keeping in mind the arguments for the
sake of democracy, the whole concept of internal security needs an overhauling where winning wars
should not be associated with deployment of troops / police force but incorporating the concept of
winning hearts and minds, and where society as a whole participates in ensuring implementation of
internal security strategy. Our state, bureaucracy and military unfortunately still seem to be hostage to
the old Big Brother responsibility syndrome where they need to take care of the situation on their own,
which will in the end put all the blame on them for any failure.
The doctrine that the army came out with more than a year ago that pronounced home-grown
militancy as the biggest threat to national security shows that the army is far more tuned to reality
than the present, civilian leadership. The current COAS, General Raheel Sharif, is one, of the key figures
involved in revamping the Pakistan army from a simple conventional force into a multi-role force that
can handle, counter insurgence and fight a conventional force at the same time The military doctrines
and strategies are in place and the transformation; of the armed forces is apparent. What remains,
however, is the political will implement relevant policies by the civilian leadership without which the
armed forces will not, rightly so, initiate a large scale offensive against extremist militant groups in
North Waziristan.
The new governments policy has been cautions. One can argue whether this is correct and to
what degree. The government is being criticized for lack of resolve in launching and sustaining decisive
action to tackle and defeat or, at least, contain Taliban within FATA. There are a number of reasons
behind this caution. Strenuous effort is on to keep the dialogue on track despites provocative events.
The military too is conscious of the need for political and public consensus to back the use of force, as
was forthcoming a few years ago when military operation was launched in Swat. Now, there is no

political consensus for fighting before giving negotiations a fair chance to succeed. An
gaining strength that option of military action alone.

argument is

From international counter terrorism perspective, international focus is on bracing up for post
2014 Afghanistan. There is fear that after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, a civil war
might breakout. That would have serious impact on Pakistans security especially in the tribal areas.
Given the ongoing transition in Afghanistan and continued terrorist attacks against civilian and military
targets throughout Pakistan, a sense of urgency has propped up in Pakistan to evolve a comprehensive
contingency plan for tacking post-2014 Pakistan. It is not appropriate to indulge in dooms day scenarios
but one should be mindful of impending serious risks.
To counter terrorism and extremism, new policy stipulated a coordinated approach at Federal
Provincial and District levels under the supervision of National Counter-Terrorism Authority (NACTA). It
calls for enhancing the capacity of civilian law enforcement agencies with an effective check on terror
financing, protecting assts, and improving the judicial system and anti-terror laws. The policy focuses on
enhancing the capacity of civilian law enforcement agencies. Police will be the first line of defence and
it will be given proper attention in terms of capacity enhancement, projection of witnesses and judges
and rudimentary investigation skills. However, primary weakness stems out of politicization of the police
service-with no immediate remedy in sight. Policy envisages that all 26 intelligence agencies of the
country will coordinate and work in tandem under NACTA.
Moreover, policy proposes an urgent study of countrys education sector to evaluate its role in
development of an extremist mindset and focuses on reversing this trend. Interestingly the seminary
system has not been singled out for reforms, rather the entire system, including curriculum, textbooks
and schoolteachers, will come under scrutiny. If implemented properly, this step will help in halting the
process of harmful indoctrination of the youth. Policy acknowledge that cleavages in society provide a
facilitating environment for terrorists to create sympathizers and recruits. To offset this trend, districtlevel extracurricular activities are planned to allow dialogue between children of all strata of society.
Policy also focuses on plugging terrorist financing through creation of counter-terrorist financing units at
the provincial level and ensuring implementation of the anti-money laundering laws.
Attempt to restore dormant National Counter- Terrorism Authority (NACTA) to its rightful place
of a policy coordinating body, that it was envisaged to be, is a welcome step. Policy incorporates
formation of 500-strong rapid response teams to counter terrorism for Islamabad and the provinces.
9.

Recommendations.
*

Pakistan is a peace loving country and wishes to settle all disputes with her neighbors
through peaceful dialogue but extremism and terrorism will be crushed ruthlessly.
The entire Pakistani nation pledges to offer any sacrifice to protect the motherland
from external and internal threat.

Since the creation of Pakistan, all sects have been living in harmony in our country. Each
sect was given its rights/freedom of expression and none of the segment was
subjugated to dominance by others. Unfortunately on behest of foreign hands sectarian

disharmony erupted in the country resulting into tension between Shia and Sunni sects
and extremism / terrorism.
*

10.

Islam is a complete code of life. It teaches humans to develop faith in God and learn
spirituality by serving the humanity through good deeds, sense of accommodation,
altruism, peace and tranquility. Islam allows all religious factions/sects to practice their
faith respecting fully their belief system and extending religious harmony towards them.
Islam promotes brotherhood and respect for fellow human beings. Killing of innocent
people is forbidden in Islam as Holy Quran says killing of a human being is equivalent to
killing of the entire human race.

Miscreants / terrorists have propagated wrong concept of Islam and Jihad for their
vested interests. They have misinterpreted verses of Holy Quran to promote their cause
and have polluted the minds of innocent youth.

Ulema (Religious scholars) from different schools of thought have declared suicide
attacks as Harram because these attacks victimize poor and innocent people. Fatwas
(Decrees) have also ben issued by Ulema against terrorist activities on different
occasions. This unanimous edict of the Ulema from various sects in Pakistan leaves no
doubt that suicide bombing and terrorist attacks are totally un-Islamic.

Government and Ulema should continue their active role in denouncing terrorism /
suicide bombing so that true version of Islam is promoted.

There are indications that Indian RAW is involved in creating unrest in Karachi. Latest
attack on Karachi air port is classic example (Indian made weapons and ammunition has
been used/confiscated).

India is using Afghan soil to sponsor terrorism in Pakistan. Recently, India has sent
additional troops to Afghanistan. Presence of more Indian troops in Afghanistan would
be more serious concern for Pakistan.

Way Forward.
*

Lately Operation Aazeb has been started by Pakistan Army wef 15 June 2014 on the
direction of Pakistans Govt till wiping out/elimination of terrorists from FATA/Pakistan
soil, after well thought out strategy/modus operandi. Afghanistan Govt has also been
requested/taken in to confidence to support for success of subject operation.

Pakistan Army has also been kept stand by to act as Rapid Response Force(RRF) in case
of any untoward eventuality in Karachi and Islamabad.

Construct a natio perceptions created by the terrorists on ideological basis by engaging

media, civil society, organizations, overseas Pakistanis and international community to
elicit support and cooperation.

Design and implement national de-radicalization programme for the people vulnerable
to extremism that can be rehabilitated and reintegrated in the society.

Integrate the mosques and the madrassas in the national and provincial education
establishment by mapping and thereafter mainstreaming the existing and new
madrassas and private sector educational institutions.

Develop social and physical infrastructure in terrorism affected regions through

sustained and inclusive efforts by all State institutions at Federal and provincial levels.

Rehabilitate all victims of terrorism especially vulnerable groups like women, children,
elderly minorities and people with special needs.

Improve worsening law and order situation by eliminating trends of targeted

assassinations, extortion, kidnapping for ransom and other serious and organized crime.
To ensure protection of key installations and places of national importance.
To enforce a comprehensive arms control regime across the country.
To prevent misuse of social electronic and print media, mobile phone Sims and
electronic devices and prevent cyber crimes for any purpose threatening internal
security.

Integrate national data base and registration plan to identify people residing in Pakistan
and their assets.

Design and implement plans to regulate lawful movement of Afghan refugees within the
country.

Enforce a robust border control regime to interdict illegal cross border movement of
persons, good, drugs and precursors, weapons or any other material threatening
internal security.

Establishment of Directorate of Internal Security (DIS) under NACTA where 33

civilians and military intelligence and operational agencies are represented having clear
articulation of command control by integrating all grids of tactical operational and
strategic intelligence, civil and military under one roof.

Capacity building of DIS for collection, analysis and dissemination through

integrated qualitative intelligence gathering efforts having direct bearing on
internal security to develop operational capability of conducting intelligence

based operation to contain pre-empt and eliminate terrorism and other threats
to public safety.
*

Establish a modern, well equipped Federal Rapid Response Force (RRF) comprising of
Counter Terrorism Department and police with experts from other security institutions
with nationwide reach and capability to interface and operate in close coordination with
police. CAFs and Pakistan Armed Forces.

Making concerted diplomatic efforts for international corporation to break transnational

affiliations of terrorists through prevention of money laundering organized crime and
transnational movement of substances used in biological and chemical terrorism.

NACTA will liaise with international actors for fostering cooperation to counter terrorism
and extremism.

Conclusion.
11.
The hypothetical notion that Pakistans nuclear weapons themselves or the fissile material used
in them, i.e weapons-grade highly enriched uranium or plutonium, may fall into the hands of terrorists
or extremists, has become a popular subject in the West. Despite repeated and elaborate briefings by
the Foreign Office and the Strategic Plans Division on the command and control and safety and security
in debates and publications, particularly in the United States.
All nuclear weapon states that have developed a nuclear arsenal have based their nuclear
weapon designs on the implosion method, and Pakistan is no exception. Therefore, while some may
deliberately choose to ignore whatever may be said in Islamabad, but the fact remains that the
technical challenges in building, maintaining and using nuclear weapons that are based on the implosion
method are the same throughout the world. This precludes the possibility of their falling into the wrong
hands or being easily used by a rogue or terrorist group without the support of dedicated facilities and a
large trained manpower.
12. Pakistan future lies in creating strong economy, trade, energy, education and remaining stead fast
against all odds / internal threats.

(The security of nations is like happiness in love; a happy miracle

which it is necessary to create a new every day).