Historical Demand

In 2013, electricity demand growth was modest compared to the growth in the previous three years. Peak
demand increased by 3.8% to 4455 MW, whilst average demand increased by 5.5% to 2597 MW
(corresponding to 22.8 TWh of energy). This followed growth in average demand of 14% in 2012, 12% in 2011,
7% in 2010, and 12-13% per year in 2008 and 2009.
The low growth rate in 2013 was due mainly to abnormally low temperatures, although economic growth was
also somewhat lower than the recent trend. It is not unusual for single-year growth rates in the MIS to
fluctuate widely, influenced by both weather and economic activity.

Demand Projections
OPWPs 7-year electricity demand projections for the MIS have been developed on the basis of: (1)
consultations with the distribution companies including MEDC, MZEC and MJEC and other relevant entities; (2)
consideration of historical average growth rates and their distribution; and (3) assessment of past forecasts
against out-turns.
The projections cover both average demand (i.e. energy) and peak demand. The latter is most relevant for
purposes of assessing capacity requirements. This accords with the basis on which OPWP transacts with power
and desalination plants. Energy projections are necessary towards securing the fuel requirement for power
generation.
The central, Expected Demand projection is based on an assumption of normal weather, considering a
baseline developed from historical patterns of the past 10 years. Variations in weather in any particular year
can have a significant impact on electricity demand, and particularly on peak demand as occurred in 2013
and 2010. The impact of weather in future years is an inherent uncertainty in the projections. Potential
weather impacts are considered in the development of Low Case and High Case demand scenarios.
The projections are built up from separate analyses of distribution system demands, which are assessed on a
macro basis by distribution companies zones, and certain bulk loads that are connected directly to the
transmission system and which are assessed on a specific load-wise basis. Distribution system demand is
comprised mainly of residential, service sector (including government and commercial buildings, tourism
facilities), and small- to medium-scale industrial demands in all MIS regions. The principal growth drivers
include population growth, household formation, general economic development and infrastructure
expansion.
The growth in demand from grid-connected loads (generally large industries and infrastructure projects)
comprises both new projects and expansion at existing industrial plants. Industrial projects are focused mainly
in the Sohar Industrial Port and Sohar Free Zone, and to a lesser extent at Sur. Infrastructure projects include,
for example, the stand-alone desalination plants.
The projections are presented as a range bounded by Low Case and High Case scenarios, and a central,
Expected Demand forecast. They are summarized in Figure 1 below.

7-Year Statement (2014-2020)

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