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Uji hipotesa dan interval kepercayaan

Dr. Pudji Lestari,dr,Mkes


IKM-KP Kedokteran Unair

Apa ??
Hypo = lemah
Thesis : dugaan
Uji Hypotesis : menguji dugaan yg lemah
An educated guess
A claim or statement about a property of

a population

Tujuan : menganalisa suatu sample


dalam upaya membedakan karakteristik
populasi yang mungkin muncul dan yg
mungkin tidak muncul

Elements of a hypothesis test


Null hypothesis Ho Statement regarding the value(s) of

unknown parameter(s). Typically will imply no association


between explanatory and response variables in our applications
(will always contain an equality)
Alternative hypothesis H1Statement contradictory to the
null hypothesis (will always contain an inequality)
Test statistic - Quantity based on sample data and null
hypothesis used to test between null and alternative hypotheses
Rejection region - Values of the test statistic for which we
reject the null in favor of the alternative hypothesis

Hypothesis Testing
Test Result
True State
H0 True
H0 False

H0 True

H0 False

Correct
Decision

Type I Error

Type II Error

Correct
Decision

P(Type I Error) P(Type II Error)


Tujuan : , keciilll

Power of a Test
Power - Probability a test rejects H0 (depends on m1- m2)
H0 True: Power = P(Type I error) =
H0 False: Power = 1-P(Type II error) = 1-

As sample sizes increase, power increases

As population variances decrease, power increases


As the true mean difference increases, power increases

Prosedur Uji hipotesa


Tentukan Tujuan hipotesa:

membandingkan (komparasi), melihat adakah hubungan


(korelasi)--(dalam satu riset bisa lebih dari satu tujuan)
Formulasikan hipotesis
Ho = netral
H1= alternative ,yang ingin dibuktikan
searah (tendensius), dua arah (nontendensius)

One tail or two tail

Pilih uji statistik yang sesuai


- Tergantung tujuan panelitian
- Tergantung jenis datanya
- Tergantung asumsi distribusinya (normal/menceng)
- Ukuran sampel/besar sampelnya (n>30 at n<30)

- Jumlah Sampel =k, hubungan antar sampel

Pasang nya

= tingkat kemaknaan = tingkat kesalahan yang ditoleransi

=kemungkinan Ho ditolak padahal Ho benar


Tergantung peneliti
Besar bila penelitian sosial atau lapangan
kecil bila penelitian klinik

Bandingkan p dengan

P adalah probabilitas diterimanya Ho


adalah level kesalahan yang toleransi

Bila p> maka Ho di terima


Bila p < maka H1 di terima

Contoh - Efficacy Test for New drug


Pabrik Obat ingin membandingkan obat hipertensi baru

dengan obat standar


Untuk mendapatkan izin edar, harus ada fakta yang
cukup untuk menunjukkan bahwa obat baru lebih baik.
Dilakukan uji klinik , sekelompok penderita dengan obat
baru, dan sekelompok yang lain dengan obat standar
Untuk melihat respon terhadap obat di lakukan
pengukuran oleh tenaga terlatih dan instrumen
terstandar.
Parameter of interest: mNew - mStd

Contoh - Efficacy Test for New drug


Type I error H nol ditolak padahal Hnol benar

menyimpulkan bahwa obat baru lebih baik padahal sama


dengan obat standar
Traditionally = P(Type I error) = 0.05
Type II error H1 ditolak padahal H1 benar. Gagal

menunjukkan bahwa obat baru efektif seperti seharusnya.


Traditionally a clinically important difference (D) is assigned and sample
sizes chosen so that:
= P(Type II error | m1-m2 = D) .20

Elements of a Hypothesis Test


Test Statistic perbedaan antara Sample means, diskalakan

terhadap jumlah SD (standard errors) dari 0 Population means:

T .S . : zobs

y1 y 2
s12 s22

n1 n2

Rejection Region - Set of values of the test statistic that are consistent
with HA, such that the probability it falls in this region when H0 is true is
(we will always set =0.05)

R.R. : zobs z

0.05 z 1.645

P-value (aka Observed Significance Level)


P-value - Measure of the strength of evidence the sample data

provides against the null hypothesis:


P(Evidence This strong or stronger against H0 | H0 is true)

P val : p P(Z zobs )

Power of a Test
Distribution (H0)

Distribution (HA)

ESTIMATION
Pudji lestari dr, MKes
Public Health Dept School of Medicine Airlangga
University

As taking sample is taking

some risk,
so statistics is deal with
calculating the risk,
then estimation is the
way to express it

Sampling Review
Some possible samples = some sample means and sample

standard deviations
These sample means
the sampling distribution of the
mean (Normal)
mean of the sampling distribution =
the standard deviation of the sampling distribution =

x / n
once the sample size is 30 or more

sampling distribution is normal


distribution (Central Limit Theory)

Point Estimates
a single number from sample used to estimate the

corresponding population parameter (e.g., the sample


mean).
a newspaper state from sample that 65% of all adults in
Surabaya think that the Hospital should be cleaner.
The percentage of the sample who agree that e Hospital
should be cleaner is the point estimate for the true
population percentage who agree.

Confidence Intervals
an interval in which we are confident the population

parameter will lie.


rather than give a particular value as the estimate for a
population parameter
find the limits of the interval.

General Confidence Interval


Calculation

Point Estimate (Critical


Value)(Standard Error)

Confidence Interval Estimate


for ( known) is given by

xz
n

Confidence Interval Estimate


for ( unknown)

s
x t 1 (dk )

n
2

Example:
As a consultant I have been employed to estimate the average

amount of comp time accumulated per week for nurse in the


hospital.
I randomly sample 18 nurse and measure the amount of extra
time they work during a specific week and obtain the following
results (in hours). Assume a 90% confidence interval.
Hospital DATA

6
3

21
29
8
16

17

20

16

12

11

21

25

15

Solution:
To construct a 90% confidence interval to estimate the average
amount of extra time per week worked by a nurse in the hospital ,
I assume that comp time is normally distributed in the
population.
The sample size is 18, so df = 17.
A 90% level of confidence results in an / 2 = .05 area in each tail.

The table t-value is t .05,17 = 1.740.

With a sample mean of 13.56 hours, and a sample standard


deviation of 7.8 hours, the confidence interval is computed:

X-bar +/- t /2, n-1 S / n


=13.56 +/- 1.740 ( 7.8 / 18) = 13.56 +/- 3.20
= 10.36 16.76

Interpretation:
The point estimate for this problem is 13.56 hours,
with an error of +/- 3.20 hours.
I am 90% confident that the average amount of comp
time accumulated by a Nurse per week in this
hospital is between 10.36 and 16.76 hours.

Recommendations:
From these figures, the hospital could attempt to
build a reward system for such extra work or
evaluate the regular 40-hour week to determine
how to use the normal work hours more effectively
and thus reduce comp time.

Proportion Estimation

Proportion Estimation

p z SE ( p)
2

Variance Estimation

S

2

2
1 12 / dk

1 / dk
2

Where 2 /dk is Chi Square distribution per degree of

freedom. Tabel A-6b


dk = n 1 which n is sample size

Example
Ten students have monthly money variance 300 ribu rupiah ,

as the confident interval 90% , estimate variance of all


students !
160 < 2 < 813
12,6 < < 28,5

Estimating Sample Size


The amount of sampling error you are willing to accept and the
level of confidence desired, determines the size of your sample.

Confident interval and p value

Clinical important and


statistically important

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