Technology costs

Antivirus software
Traffic Anomaly Detector (TAD)
Number of PCs per TAD

$50 per vulnerable PC

$20,000 per device
80

Support costs
Antivirus software license

$10,000

Number of PCs per antivirus license

Traffic Anomaly Detector (TAD) license
Number of TADs per TAD license

10
$80,000
3

Cost of breach
Cost of lost revenue/goodwill
Liability cost
Direct expenditure of recovery

Joanne's numbers Peter's numbers

$15,000,000
$15,000,000
$10,000,000
$25,000,000
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
Total:
$27,500,000
$42,500,000

Assignment #5,
Panos Ipeirotis

Assignment 4, Section 4 & 5, Fall 2009

Probability of a breach for a given number of vulnerable PC's

Combination of technologies chosen
Number of
vulnerable PC's
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1500
2000

Neither
0.2035
0.2064
0.2090
0.2115
0.2139
0.2162
0.2185
0.2207
0.2229
0.2251
0.2354
0.2452
0.2546
0.2638
0.2814
0.2984
0.3149
0.3310
0.3468
0.3622
0.3774
0.4504
0.5198

Antivirus
0.0011
0.0018
0.0023
0.0027
0.0032
0.0036
0.0040
0.0043
0.0047
0.0050
0.0065
0.0078
0.0090
0.0102
0.0123
0.0142
0.0160
0.0177
0.0193
0.0208
0.0223
0.0290
0.0350

TAD
0.0018
0.0035
0.0056
0.0063
0.0080
0.0105
0.0112
0.0140
0.0165
0.0191
0.0195
0.0222
0.0234
0.0248
0.0253
0.0274
0.0280
0.0308
0.0327
0.0353
0.0354
0.0371
0.0376

Antivirus and
TAD
0.0011
0.0014
0.0016
0.0018
0.0020
0.0021
0.0022
0.0023
0.0024
0.0025
0.0029
0.0032
0.0035
0.0037
0.0041
0.0044
0.0047
0.0050
0.0052
0.0054
0.0056
0.0065
0.0072

Probability of a breach for a given number of vulnerable PC's

Results Summary
Number of
vulnerable
PC's
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1500
2000

Most CostEfficient
Strategy
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
TAD
TAD
TAD

Number of vulnerable PC's

10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1500
2000

Combination of technologies chosen

Neither
0.203539729
0.206380365
0.209005816
0.211500613
0.213902551
0.216232992
0.218505607
0.220729866
0.222912693
0.225059362
0.235371019
0.245169523
0.254603315
0.263756295
0.281418106
0.298422526
0.314920781
0.331009666
0.346756212
0.362209445
0.377406695
0.45040764
0.519775731

Antivirus
0.001116709
0.001752304
0.002280703
0.00274966
0.003178853
0.003578807
0.003955977
0.004314679
0.00465798
0.004988156
0.006492311
0.007827255
0.009049009
0.010187528
0.01228228
0.014199417
0.015985945
0.017670699
0.019272964
0.020806433
0.022281273
0.029000089
0.034963066

TAD
Antivirus and TAD
0.001774067
0.001119361
0.003473885
0.001426693
0.005598396
0.00164423
0.006263719
0.001818407
0.007984198
0.001966118
0.010523472
0.00209567
0.01117171
0.002211843
0.013952001
0.002317669
0.016499286
0.00241521
0.019138211
0.002505936
0.019516328
0.002888032
0.022204531
0.003193968
0.023374481
0.003453417
0.024820794
0.003680971
0.025341841
0.004070905
0.027395763
0.004401589
0.027977591
0.004691621
0.030779105
0.0049517
0.032749675
0.005188616
0.035296675
0.005406981
0.035411061
0.005610092
0.037100128
0.006465497
0.037598803
0.007150403

Neither

Antivirus

Total Expected CostPC cost

Software license
Total Cost
$5,597,343
$500
$10,000
$10,500
$5,675,460
$1,000
$20,000
$21,000
$5,747,660
$1,500
$30,000
$31,500
$5,816,267
$2,000
$40,000
$42,000
$5,882,320
$2,500
$50,000
$52,500
$5,946,407
$3,000
$60,000
$63,000
$6,008,904
$3,500
$70,000
$73,500
$6,070,071
$4,000
$80,000
$84,000
$6,130,099
$4,500
$90,000
$94,500
$6,189,132
$5,000
$100,000
$105,000
$6,472,703
$7,500
$150,000
$157,500
$6,742,162
$10,000
$200,000
$210,000
$7,001,591
$12,500
$250,000
$262,500
$7,253,298
$15,000
$300,000
$315,000
$7,738,998
$20,000
$400,000
$420,000
$8,206,619
$25,000
$500,000
$525,000
$8,660,321
$30,000
$600,000
$630,000
$9,102,766
$35,000
$700,000
$735,000
$9,535,796
$40,000
$800,000
$840,000
$9,960,760
$45,000
$900,000
$945,000
$10,378,684
$50,000
$1,000,000 $1,050,000
$12,386,210
$75,000
$1,500,000 $1,575,000
$14,293,833
$100,000
$2,000,000 $2,100,000

TAD

Expected CostTotal
Breach
Expected CostNumber
$30,709
$41,209
$48,188
$69,188
$62,719
$94,219
$75,616
$117,616
$87,418
$139,918
$98,417
$161,417
$108,789
$182,289
$118,654
$202,654
$128,094
$222,594
$137,174
$242,174
$178,539
$336,039
$215,250
$425,250
$248,848
$511,348
$280,157
$595,157
$337,763
$757,763
$390,484
$915,484
$439,613
$1,069,613
$485,944
$1,220,944
$530,006
$1,370,006
$572,177
$1,517,177
$612,735
$1,662,735
$797,502
$2,372,502
$961,484
$3,061,484

PC/80 # of TADs Cost of TADs # of TAD licenses

0.125
1
$20,000
1
0.25
1
$20,000
1
0.375
1
$20,000
1
0.5
1
$20,000
1
0.625
1
$20,000
1
0.75
1
$20,000
1
0.875
1
$20,000
1
1
1
$20,000
1
1.125
2
$40,000
1
1.25
2
$40,000
1
1.875
2
$40,000
1
2.5
3
$60,000
1
3.125
4
$80,000
2
3.75
4
$80,000
2
5
5
$100,000
2
6.25
7
$140,000
3
7.5
8
$160,000
3
8.75
9
$180,000
3
10
10
$200,000
4
11.25
12
$240,000
4
12.5
13
$260,000
5
18.75
19
$380,000
7
25
25
$500,000
9

Both

License cost Total Cost

Expected CostTotal
Breach
Expected Cost
$80,000
$100,000
$48,787
$148,787
$80,000
$100,000
$95,532
$195,532
$80,000
$100,000
$153,956
$253,956
$80,000
$100,000
$172,252
$272,252
$80,000
$100,000
$219,565
$319,565
$80,000
$100,000
$289,395
$389,395
$80,000
$100,000
$307,222
$407,222
$80,000
$100,000
$383,680
$483,680
$80,000
$120,000
$453,730
$573,730
$80,000
$120,000
$526,301
$646,301
$80,000
$120,000
$536,699
$656,699
$80,000
$140,000
$610,625
$750,625
$160,000
$240,000
$642,798
$882,798
$160,000
$240,000
$682,572
$922,572
$160,000
$260,000
$696,901
$956,901
$240,000
$380,000
$753,383
$1,133,383
$240,000
$400,000
$769,384
$1,169,384
$240,000
$420,000
$846,425
$1,266,425
$320,000
$520,000
$900,616
$1,420,616
$320,000
$560,000
$970,659
$1,530,659
$400,000
$660,000
$973,804
$1,633,804
$560,000
$940,000
$1,020,254
$1,960,254
$720,000 $1,220,000
$1,033,967
$2,253,967

Expected Cost Breach

$30,782
$39,234
$45,216
$50,006
$54,068
$57,631
$60,826
$63,736
$66,418
$68,913
$79,421
$87,834
$94,969
$101,227
$111,950
$121,044
$129,020
$136,172
$142,687
$148,692
$154,278
$177,801
$196,636

Summary of Total Expected Cost

Total Expected Cost

$141,282
$160,234
$176,716
$192,006
$206,568
$220,631
$234,326
$247,736
$280,918
$293,913
$356,921
$437,834
$597,469
$656,227
$791,950
$1,026,044
$1,159,020
$1,291,172
$1,502,687
$1,653,692
$1,864,278
$2,692,801
$3,516,636

Neither
A
TAD
A+TAD
$5,597,343
$41,209
$148,787
$141,282
$5,675,460
$69,188
$195,532
$160,234
$5,747,660
$94,219
$253,956
$176,716
$5,816,267
$117,616
$272,252
$192,006
$5,882,320
$139,918
$319,565
$206,568
$5,946,407
$161,417
$389,395
$220,631
$6,008,904
$182,289
$407,222
$234,326
$6,070,071
$202,654
$483,680
$247,736
$6,130,099
$222,594
$573,730
$280,918
$6,189,132
$242,174
$646,301
$293,913
$6,472,703
$336,039
$656,699
$356,921
$6,742,162
$425,250
$750,625
$437,834
$7,001,591
$511,348
$882,798
$597,469
$7,253,298
$595,157
$922,572
$656,227
$7,738,998
$757,763
$956,901
$791,950
$8,206,619
$915,484 $1,133,383 $1,026,044
$8,660,321 $1,069,613 $1,169,384 $1,159,020
$9,102,766 $1,220,944 $1,266,425 $1,291,172
$9,535,796 $1,370,006 $1,420,616 $1,502,687
$9,960,760 $1,517,177 $1,530,659 $1,653,692
$10,378,684 $1,662,735 $1,633,804 $1,864,278
$12,386,210 $2,372,502 $1,960,254 $2,692,801
$14,293,833 $3,061,484 $2,253,967 $3,516,636

Identify Min
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
TAD
TAD
TAD

Probability of a breach for a given number of vulnerable PC's

Results Summary
Number of
vulnerable
PC's
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1500
2000

Most CostEfficient
Strategy
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A+TAD
A+TAD
A
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
TAD
TAD

Number of vulnerable PC's

10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1500
2000

Combination of technologies chosen

Neither
0.203539729
0.206380365
0.209005816
0.211500613
0.213902551
0.216232992
0.218505607
0.220729866
0.222912693
0.225059362
0.235371019
0.245169523
0.254603315
0.263756295
0.281418106
0.298422526
0.314920781
0.331009666
0.346756212
0.362209445
0.377406695
0.45040764
0.519775731

Antivirus
0.001116709
0.001752304
0.002280703
0.00274966
0.003178853
0.003578807
0.003955977
0.004314679
0.00465798
0.004988156
0.006492311
0.007827255
0.009049009
0.010187528
0.01228228
0.014199417
0.015985945
0.017670699
0.019272964
0.020806433
0.022281273
0.029000089
0.034963066

TAD
Antivirus and TAD
0.001774067
0.001119361
0.003473885
0.001426693
0.005598396
0.00164423
0.006263719
0.001818407
0.007984198
0.001966118
0.010523472
0.00209567
0.01117171
0.002211843
0.013952001
0.002317669
0.016499286
0.00241521
0.019138211
0.002505936
0.019516328
0.002888032
0.022204531
0.003193968
0.023374481
0.003453417
0.024820794
0.003680971
0.025341841
0.004070905
0.027395763
0.004401589
0.027977591
0.004691621
0.030779105
0.0049517
0.032749675
0.005188616
0.035296675
0.005406981
0.035411061
0.005610092
0.037100128
0.006465497
0.037598803
0.007150403

Neither

Antivirus

Total Expected CostPC cost

Software license
Total Cost
$8,650,438
$500
$10,000
$10,500
$8,771,165
$1,000
$20,000
$21,000
$8,882,747
$1,500
$30,000
$31,500
$8,988,776
$2,000
$40,000
$42,000
$9,090,858
$2,500
$50,000
$52,500
$9,189,902
$3,000
$60,000
$63,000
$9,286,488
$3,500
$70,000
$73,500
$9,381,019
$4,000
$80,000
$84,000
$9,473,789
$4,500
$90,000
$94,500
$9,565,023
$5,000
$100,000
$105,000
$10,003,268
$7,500
$150,000
$157,500
$10,419,705
$10,000
$200,000
$210,000
$10,820,641
$12,500
$250,000
$262,500
$11,209,643
$15,000
$300,000
$315,000
$11,960,270
$20,000
$400,000
$420,000
$12,682,957
$25,000
$500,000
$525,000
$13,384,133
$30,000
$600,000
$630,000
$14,067,911
$35,000
$700,000
$735,000
$14,737,139
$40,000
$800,000
$840,000
$15,393,901
$45,000
$900,000
$945,000
$16,039,785
$50,000
$1,000,000 $1,050,000
$19,142,325
$75,000
$1,500,000 $1,575,000
$22,090,469
$100,000
$2,000,000 $2,100,000

TAD

Expected CostTotal
Breach
Expected CostNumber
$47,460
$57,960
$74,473
$95,473
$96,930
$128,430
$116,861
$158,861
$135,101
$187,601
$152,099
$215,099
$168,129
$241,629
$183,374
$267,374
$197,964
$292,464
$211,997
$316,997
$275,923
$433,423
$332,658
$542,658
$384,583
$647,083
$432,970
$747,970
$521,997
$941,997
$603,475
$1,128,475
$679,403
$1,309,403
$751,005
$1,486,005
$819,101
$1,659,101
$884,273
$1,829,273
$946,954
$1,996,954
$1,232,504
$2,807,504
$1,485,930
$3,585,930

PC/80 # of TADs Cost of TADs # of TAD licenses

0.125
1
$20,000
1
0.25
1
$20,000
1
0.375
1
$20,000
1
0.5
1
$20,000
1
0.625
1
$20,000
1
0.75
1
$20,000
1
0.875
1
$20,000
1
1
1
$20,000
1
1.125
2
$40,000
1
1.25
2
$40,000
1
1.875
2
$40,000
1
2.5
3
$60,000
1
3.125
4
$80,000
2
3.75
4
$80,000
2
5
5
$100,000
2
6.25
7
$140,000
3
7.5
8
$160,000
3
8.75
9
$180,000
3
10
10
$200,000
4
11.25
12
$240,000
4
12.5
13
$260,000
5
18.75
19
$380,000
7
25
25
$500,000
9

Both

License cost Total Cost

Expected CostTotal
Breach
Expected Cost
$80,000
$100,000
$75,398
$175,398
$80,000
$100,000
$147,640
$247,640
$80,000
$100,000
$237,932
$337,932
$80,000
$100,000
$266,208
$366,208
$80,000
$100,000
$339,328
$439,328
$80,000
$100,000
$447,248
$547,248
$80,000
$100,000
$474,798
$574,798
$80,000
$100,000
$592,960
$692,960
$80,000
$120,000
$701,220
$821,220
$80,000
$120,000
$813,374
$933,374
$80,000
$120,000
$829,444
$949,444
$80,000
$140,000
$943,693
$1,083,693
$160,000
$240,000
$993,415
$1,233,415
$160,000
$240,000
$1,054,884
$1,294,884
$160,000
$260,000
$1,077,028
$1,337,028
$240,000
$380,000
$1,164,320
$1,544,320
$240,000
$400,000
$1,189,048
$1,589,048
$240,000
$420,000
$1,308,112
$1,728,112
$320,000
$520,000
$1,391,861
$1,911,861
$320,000
$560,000
$1,500,109
$2,060,109
$400,000
$660,000
$1,504,970
$2,164,970
$560,000
$940,000
$1,576,755
$2,516,755
$720,000 $1,220,000
$1,597,949
$2,817,949

Expected Cost Breach

$47,573
$60,634
$69,880
$77,282
$83,560
$89,066
$94,003
$98,501
$102,646
$106,502
$122,741
$135,744
$146,770
$156,441
$173,013
$187,068
$199,394
$210,447
$220,516
$229,797
$238,429
$274,784
$303,892

Summary of Total Expected Cost

Total Expected Cost

$158,073
$181,634
$201,380
$219,282
$236,060
$252,066
$267,503
$282,501
$317,146
$331,502
$400,241
$485,744
$649,270
$711,441
$853,013
$1,092,068
$1,229,394
$1,365,447
$1,580,516
$1,734,797
$1,948,429
$2,789,784
$3,623,892

Neither
A
TAD
A+TAD
$8,650,438
$57,960
$175,398
$158,073
$8,771,165
$95,473
$247,640
$181,634
$8,882,747
$128,430
$337,932
$201,380
$8,988,776
$158,861
$366,208
$219,282
$9,090,858
$187,601
$439,328
$236,060
$9,189,902
$215,099
$547,248
$252,066
$9,286,488
$241,629
$574,798
$267,503
$9,381,019
$267,374
$692,960
$282,501
$9,473,789
$292,464
$821,220
$317,146
$9,565,023
$316,997
$933,374
$331,502
$10,003,268
$433,423
$949,444
$400,241
$10,419,705
$542,658 $1,083,693
$485,744
$10,820,641
$647,083 $1,233,415
$649,270
$11,209,643
$747,970 $1,294,884
$711,441
$11,960,270
$941,997 $1,337,028
$853,013
$12,682,957 $1,128,475 $1,544,320 $1,092,068
$13,384,133 $1,309,403 $1,589,048 $1,229,394
$14,067,911 $1,486,005 $1,728,112 $1,365,447
$14,737,139 $1,659,101 $1,911,861 $1,580,516
$15,393,901 $1,829,273 $2,060,109 $1,734,797
$16,039,785 $1,996,954 $2,164,970 $1,948,429
$19,142,325 $2,807,504 $2,516,755 $2,789,784
$22,090,469 $3,585,930 $2,817,949 $3,623,892

Identify Min
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A+TAD
A+TAD
A
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
A+TAD
TAD
TAD

Combination of technologies chosen

Number
of
vulnerab
le PC's
1000
1500
1240

Neither

Antivirus
TAD
0.377406695 0.022281273 0.035411061
0.45040764 0.029000089 0.037100128
0.413907167 0.025640681 0.036255595

Assume probability of each scenario has linear (or close-to-linear relationship with number of
vulnerable PC's); since 1240 is roughly halfway between 1000 and 1500, the probabilities, under
the aforementioned assumption, is taken as average of probabilities for 1000, and 1500 PC's,
respectively

Antivirus
and TAD
0.005610092
0.006465497
0.006037795

onship with number of

the probabilities, under
1000, and 1500 PC's,

Number of
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1500
2000

Joanne Summary
computers
A
TAD
$
41,209 $
148,787
$
69,188 $
195,532
$
94,219 $
253,956
$
117,616 $
272,252
$
139,918 $
319,565
$
161,417 $
389,395
$
182,289 $
407,222
$
202,654 $
483,680
$
222,594 $
573,730
$
242,174 $
646,301
$
336,039 $
656,699
$
425,250 $
750,625
$
511,348 $
882,798
$
595,157 $
922,572
$
757,763 $
956,901
$
915,484 $
1,133,383
$
1,069,613 $
1,169,384
$
1,220,944 $
1,266,425
$
1,370,006 $
1,420,616
$
1,517,177 $
1,530,659
$
1,662,735 $
1,633,804
$
2,372,502 $
1,960,254
$
3,061,484 $
2,253,967

A+TAD
$
141,282
$
160,234
$
176,716
$
192,006
$
206,568
$
220,631
$
234,326
$
247,736
$
280,918
$
293,913
$
356,921
$
437,834
$
597,469
$
656,227
$
791,950
$
1,026,044
$
1,159,020
$
1,291,172
$
1,502,687
$
1,653,692
$
1,864,278
$
2,692,801
$
3,516,636

Number of computers
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1500
2000

Joanne Scenario Graph

$4,000,000
$3,500,000
$3,000,000
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0

500

1000
A

1500
TAD

A+TAD

2000

A
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

Peter Summary
TAD
A+TAD
$
175,398 $
158,073
$
247,640 $
181,634
$
337,932 $
201,380
$
366,208 $
219,282
$
439,328 $
236,060
$
547,248 $
252,066
$
574,798 $
267,503
$
692,960 $
282,501
$
821,220 $
317,146
$
933,374 $
331,502
$
949,444 $
400,241
$
1,083,693 $
485,744
$
1,233,415 $
649,270
$
1,294,884 $
711,441
$
1,337,028 $
853,013
$
1,544,320 $
1,092,068
$
1,589,048 $
1,229,394
$
1,728,112 $
1,365,447
$
1,911,861 $
1,580,516
$
2,060,109 $
1,734,797
$
2,164,970 $
1,948,429
$
2,516,755 $
2,789,784
$
2,817,949 $
3,623,892

57,960
95,473
128,430
158,861
187,601
215,099
241,629
267,374
292,464
316,997
433,423
542,658
647,083
747,970
941,997
1,128,475
1,309,403
1,486,005
1,659,101
1,829,273
1,996,954
2,807,504
3,585,930

Peter Scenario Graph

$4,000,000
$3,500,000
$3,000,000
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$2500

500

1000
A

1500
TAD

A+TAD

2000

2500

2500