ASSIGNMENT : INSTRUCTIONS

Pl submit 1 solution set per group

To submit by 28th Dec
The assignment consists of 3 parts
ASSIGNMENT PART 1
1. Forecast for the data set a
ASSIGNMENT PART 2
2. A guesstimation exercise

Select any 1 situation from Guesstimation sheet, guesstimate the number &

ASSIGNMENT PART 3

3. A One page note on your l

ALLOCATION FOR FORECASTING

DATAS
1
A2
A10
B5
B16

FT153079
FT152001
FT154061
FT153097

olution set per group

28th Dec
nt consists of 3 parts
Forecast for the data set allotted to your group as specified
A guesstimation exercise

heet, guesstimate the number & explain the rationale behind arriving at the numb

A One page note on your learning out of the Goal book

2
A3
A11
B7
B13

DATASET ALLOTMENT TO GROUPS

3
4
5
6
A4
A5
A6
A9
A12
A13
A15
A17
B9
B1
B3
B4
B14
B10
B17
B11

Section A
Souvik Dey
Sourav Dey
NISHIT MUKESH CHANDARANA
RAJENDRA SINGH NAYAL

Grp No 12

7
A7
A18
B6
B12

pecified

10 MARKS
5 MARKS

arriving at the number

5 MARKS

8
A1
A16
B8
B15

9
A8
A14
B2
B18

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.940358
R Square
0.884273
Adjusted R Square 0.88262
Standard Error
14.91703
Observations
72
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 119018.9 119018.9 534.8733 1.67E-34
70 15576.25 222.5178
71 134595.1

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
252.0166 3.552925 70.93216 6.17E-67 244.9305 259.1027 244.9305 259.1027
-1.95633 0.084589 -23.1273 1.67E-34 -2.12504 -1.78762 -2.12504 -1.78762

Upper 95.0%

B3:

The data below pertains to monthly sales of Black and white TV. Project the sales for t

month

actual sales

monthly
average
quarter basis

1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00

229.00
203.00
229.00
259.00
293.00
302.00
264.00

220.33
284.67
241.67
209.00
197.33
257.67
245.33

8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
24.00
25.00
26.00
27.00
28.00
29.00
30.00
31.00
32.00
33.00
34.00
35.00
36.00
37.00
38.00
39.00
40.00

234.00
227.00
235.00
188.00
204.00
201.00
180.00
211.00
237.00
272.00
264.00
243.00
229.00
235.00
236.00
196.00
196.00
194.00
172.00
191.00
209.00
242.00
230.00
218.00
183.00
181.00
193.00
180.00
171.00
166.00
146.00
162.00
184.00

222.33
187.33
214.00
210.33
184.67
161.00
181.67
183.00
163.67
133.00
153.67
148.00
134.00
112.33
134.33
134.67
126.33

Global
average sales
Average of
Quarters
based on
quarters
given sales
data
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

182.90

168.56
204.33
193.83
173.33

Seasonal
factors
0.92
1.12
1.06
0.95

41.00
42.00
43.00
44.00
45.00
46.00
47.00
48.00
49.00
50.00
51.00
52.00
53.00
54.00
55.00
56.00
57.00
58.00
59.00
60.00
61.00
62.00
63.00
64.00
65.00
66.00
67.00
68.00
69.00
70.00
71.00
72.00
73.00
74.00
75.00
76.00
77.00
78.00
79.00
80.00
81.00
82.00
83.00
84.00

199.00
199.00
178.00
172.00
163.00
178.00
150.00
145.00
140.00
114.00
133.00
158.00
170.00
170.00
149.00
125.00
135.00
141.00
126.00
115.00
118.00
104.00
119.00
136.00
148.00
148.00
135.00
121.00
129.00
132.00
118.00
112.00

229
203
229
259
293
302
264
234
227
235
188
204
201
180
211
237
272
264
243
229
235
236
196
196
194
172
191
209
242
230
218
183
181
193
180
171
166
146
162
184
199
199
178

172
163
178
150
145
140
114
133
158
170
170
149
125
135
141
126
115
118
104
119
136
148
148
135
121
129
132
118
112

101
99
97
115
113
111
103
101
99
87
85
83

Project the sales for the next year

Deseasonalised
sales
248.49
220.28
248.49
231.84
262.27
270.33
249.11
220.80
214.20
247.97
198.38
215.26
218.11
195.32
228.96
212.14
243.47
236.31
229.30
216.09
221.75
249.03
206.82
206.82
210.51
186.64
207.26
187.08
216.62
205.88
205.71
172.68
170.79
203.66
189.94
180.44
180.13
158.43
175.79
164.70

Forcasted
seasonalised
sales

Note: Initial given data shows that seasonality & declining trend prevalent i
first deseasonalised the given sales data, then calculate the regression eq
deasonalised sales data.Based on the equation, by changing the X variab
deseasonalised sales forcast for next 1 year. then we convert the deseasona
seasonal ones by multipling seasonal factor.

Regression quation=

y = -1.983x + 255.28

Sales graph from given data

350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00

sales

150.00

Linear (sales)

100.00
50.00
0.00
1

11

21

31

41

51

61

71

Graph from forcasted sales

data
150.00

100.00
Series1
50.00

0.00
73.00

76.00

79.00

82.00

0.00
73.00

178.13
178.13
167.96
162.30
153.81
187.83
158.28
153.01
151.92
123.70
144.32
141.43
152.17
152.17
140.60
117.95
127.39
148.78
132.96
121.35
128.04
112.85
129.13
121.74
132.48
132.48
127.39
114.18
121.73
139.29
124.51
118.18
109.21
107.25
105.30
103.34
101.38
99.43
97.47
95.52
93.56
91.60
89.65
87.69

100.64
98.84
97.04
115.45
113.26
111.08
103.30
101.22
99.15
86.81
84.96
83.10

next 1 yr
sales
forcast

76.00

79.00

82.00

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75

declining trend prevalent in the data.So, we

calculate the regression equation from the
on, by changing the X variable, we get the
we convert the deseasonalise sales forcast to
ling seasonal factor.

sales
Linear (sales)

y = -1.9829x + 255.27
R = 0.8289

Series1
Linear (Series1)

73 75 77 79 81 83