Anda di halaman 1dari 15

Opinion Survey on Current National Issues

April 2013

Submitted to:
Daily Prothom Alo
CA Bhaban
100 Kazi Nazrul Islam Avenue
Karwan Bazar, Dhaka-1215

Prepared by:
Org-Quest Research Limited
Unique Trade Center (UTC), Level - 6 (SE)
8 Panthapath
Dhaka - 1215
Bangladesh

April 30, 2013


1. STUDY OBJECTIVE & METHOD
1. Study Objective and Method:
1.1. Study Objective: Objective of the study was to ascertain public opinion on current national
burning issues.
1.2. Issues Covered:
Shahbag movement
Current situation of the country and steps taken by the government in the current context
Governments ability to control post trial situation (of Abdul Quader Molla and Delwar
Hossain Saydee)
Banning of Jamaat-e-Islam
Election time government
Likelihood of Army intervention
Political alliances
1.3. Target Respondents: Adult males and females (18 years and above)
1.4. Geographical Coverage: The survey was nationally representative, covering all
administrative divisions and both urban and rural areas, conducted in thirty (30) districts
(primary sampling unit PSU) across the country as can be seen in the attached map.
1.5. Sample Size: Sample size n=3000
Area Type

Male

Female

Total

Urban

375

375

750

Rural

1137
1512

1113
1488

2250

Total

3000

1.6. Sampling Technique: Stratified systematic random sampling technique by dividing the
country into seven (7) divisions and urban and rural areas based on the Population Census 2011.
Respondents were selected randomly with the help of KISH table from systematically selected
households. Estimated margin of error: 1.79
The survey strictly adhered to the internationally accepted methodology and ethical standard as
per the guideline of European Society for Opinion and Market Research (ESOMAR).
1.7. Interview technique: Face to face through door to door visit.
1.8. Fieldwork Period: 09 - 20 April, 2013

2. Summary Findings:
The survey was done to ascertain public perception on selected current issues that the country is
facing. Findings portray a rather dismal condition indicating a bleak future unless concrete
actions are taken to fix these critical issues at the earliest with a broad based consensus.
However, the findings can be summarized by issues probed as below:
Shahbag movement: Support for Shahbag movement was also not found very high as less than
one-fourths (23%) indicated their support for it, as against which 58% were non-supportive, and
17% were unaware of the movement, which is also noticeable. If we consider those who had
responded either for or against, then the figures would be 29% in support of the movement and
71% against.
Perception about current situation of the country and steps taken by the government:
Peoples perception about the current state of affairs does not look encouraging either as only a
meager 13% felt that the current situation of the country is somewhat good/very good. On the
other hand 85% termed it as bad/very bad (35% termed as bad and 50% as very bad). The more
disquieting factor is that most respondents (79%) were of the opinion that the government is not
being able to take right steps in this critical situation. Only about 18% thought otherwise.
Tackling the situation created after declaring war crimes judgment: Governments ability to
tackle post war crimes verdict situation has also been put under question. Respondents were
asked if the government was able to tackle the situation as it occurred after declaring the war
crimes trial verdicts against Abdul Quader Molla and Dewar Hossain Saydee. An overwhelming
majority (81%) responded negatively and only 15% opined favorably.
Banning of JI: When asked if Jamaat-e-Islam should be banned from doing politics, nearly twothirds (65%) responded negatively and exactly one-fourth (25%) opined in favor of banning the
party, and the rest 10% either refused to answer or did not know. It may be worth noting here
that all the national public opinion surveys done so far depicted JI popularity to be hovering
between 3 and 4% only. This indicates that although its support base is quite low and has
remained more or less stagnant in percentage term, majority are against taking away JIs right to
do politics. If we consider those who had responded either for or against the ban, then the figures
would be 28% in support of the ban and 78% against. Intriguingly, the figures are almost exactly
same as support for and against Shahbag movement.
Election time government: The country appears to have a united opinion about the election
time government as a staggering majority of 90% respondents voicing support for
caretaker/neutral government for holding the next national election, and only 8% preferring a
political/party government. It may be worth noting here that in the two previous national public
opinion polls conducted in December 2011 and December 2012 election under caretaker
government was preferred by 73% and 76% respondents respectively. This indicates a 14
percentage point increase in favor of caretaker/neutral government within a span of only about 4
recent months. It is interesting to note that a large part of those who support Shahbag movement
and banning JI also support holding election under caretaker/neutral government (29% & 28% vs
8%)!

Likelihood of army intervention: Perception with regard to possible army intervention under
the current situation of the country although appears fragmented, more people doubt its
likelihood. While 41% felt that any army intervention is unlikely, 35% thought otherwise and
23% were unsure/did not know.
Political alliances: Majority appeared against alliances between BNP & JI and between AL and
JP. About half of the respondents (51%) felt that BNP should not have any alliance with JI, 36%
opined in favor and the rest either refused to answer or did not know. Similarly, more than half
(59%) voiced against maintaining any alliance with JP (Ershad) by Awami League, 26% were in
favor and the rest either refused or did not know.

3. Detailed Findings:
3.1. Shahbag movement:
Support for Shahbag movement was less than one-fourths as only 23% indicated their support for
it, 58% were non-supportive, and 17% were unaware of the movement, which is also noticeable.
Awareness of the movement was lower in rural areas and amongst females than their
counterparts. Age-wise no noticeable difference was observed.
Do you support Shahbagh's 'GonojagoronMoncho' movement?
National Average

Findings by Area Type, Gender and Age

3.2. Perception about current situation of the country:


Peoples perception about the current state of affairs does not look encouraging as only a meager
13% felt that the situation is somewhat good/very good. On the other hand 85% termed it as
bad/very bad (35% termed as bad and 50% as very bad). No noticeable difference was observed
by area type, gender and age.
How is the current situation of the country in your opinion?
National Average

Findings by Area Type, Gender and Age

3.3. Perception about steps taken by the government:


Perception about governments role appears quite disturbing as most of the respondents (79%)
were of the opinion that the government is not being able to take right steps in this critical
situation. Only about 18% thought otherwise. Urban, female and younger respondents were
found more dissatisfied than their respective counterparts.
Is the government being able to take proper steps under the current situation?
National Average

Findings by Area Type, Gender and Age

3.4. Ability of the government to tackle the post war crimes judgment situation:
Governments ability to tackle post war crimes verdict situation has also been put under
question. Respondents were asked if the government was able to tackle the situation as it
occurred after declaring the war crimes trial verdicts against Abdul Quader Molla and Dewar
Hossain Saydee. An overwhelming majority (81%) responded negatively and only 15% opined
favorably. Females and younger respondents were found more critical than their respective
counterparts.
Is the government being able to tackle the situation after declaring judgment on war crimes?
National Average

Findings by Area Type, Gender and Age

3.5. Banning of JI:


Majority of the countrys citizens seem to be against banning JI from doing politics. When asked
if Jamaat-e-Islam should be banned, nearly two-thirds (65%) responded negatively and exactly
one-fourth (25%) opined in favor of banning the party, and the rest 10% either refused to answer
or did not know. It may, however, be worth noting here that all the national public opinion
surveys done so far depicted JI popularity to be hovering only between 3 and 4%. This indicates
that although its support base is quite low and has remained more or less stagnant in one
position, majority are against taking away JIs right to do politics. More of urban people and
males were in favor of banning JI than their respective counterparts. Age-wise no difference was
observed.
Should Jamat e Islami be banned?
National Average

Findings by Area Type, Gender and Age

3.6. Election time government:


The country appears to have a united opinion about the election time government as a staggering
majority of the respondents (90%) voiced in favor caretaker/neutral government for holding the
next national election, and only 8% favoring a political/party government. It may be worth
noting here that in the two previous national public opinion polls conducted in December 2011
and December 2012 election under caretaker government was favored by 73% and 76%
respectively. This indicates a 14 percentage point increase in favor of caretaker/neutral
government within a span of only about 4 recent months. Intriguingly, rural, female and younger
respondents were found more inclined to caretaker/neutral government than their respective
counterparts.
Should the forthcoming national parliament election be held under party government or under
neutral/caretaker government?
National Average

Findings by Area Type, Gender and Age

3.7. Likelihood of army intervention:


Perception with regard to possible army intervention under the current situation of the country
although appears fragmented, more people doubt its likelihood. While 41% felt that any army
intervention is unlikely, 35% thought otherwise and 23% were unsure or did not know. More of
urban, male and younger respondents perceived the likelihood of army intervention than their
respective counterparts.
Under the present circumstances is there any possibility of army intervention?
National Average

Findings by Area Type, Gender and Age

3.8. Political alliances:


Majority appeared against alliances between BNP & JI and between AL and JP. About half of
the respondents (51%) felt that BNP should not have any alliance with JI, 36% opined in favor
the alliance and the rest either refused or did not know. Similarly, more than half (59%) voiced
against remaining in alliance with JP (Ershad) by Awami League, 26% were in favor and the rest
either refused or did not know.
Should BNP maintain its alliance with Jamat e Islami?
National Average

Findings by Area Type, Gender and Age

Should Awami League maintain its alliance with Jatiyo Party (Ershad)?
National Average

Findings by Area Type, Gender and Age

Profile of Respondents
Dhaka

Chittagong

Rajshahi

Division
Khulna

Rangpur

Barisal

Syhlet

4.9
6.5
4.3
2.4

4.5
8.4
3.4
1.2

4.2
6.4
3.6
5.3

4.7
5.5
4.7
1.8

5.5
7.4
7.4
2.8

4.8
1.2
5.8
1.8

1.7
7.4
0.0
0.6

10.2
5.9
6.8
3.4

3.2

2.7

4.7

1.0

2.8

3.0

4.0

5.9

1.3

2.3

1.4

1.3

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2.2
1.0
0.6
0.2
15.4
1.7
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.3
1.4
0.0
2.5
44.8
6.0

2.0
1.1
1.1
0.3
16.4
1.9
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
2.9
44.4
4.7

4.6
1.4
0.2
0.0
8.1
1.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
2.2
0.0
2.0
44.6
8.0

0.8
0.5
1.0
0.5
20.5
2.6
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.0
1.8
45.5
4.9

0.6
1.8
0.3
0.0
12.3
0.9
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.6
1.8
0.0
2.8
47.1
4.6

2.4
0.3
0.3
0.0
24.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.2
46.1
7.6

2.3
0.0
0.6
0.0
21.1
4.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
2.9
48.0
5.7

1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
8.3
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
2.9
0.0
4.9
38.0
8.3

22.2
3.7
11.6
36.5
20.0

23.4
4.2
10.2
37.6
18.7

12.2
0.7
12.2
43.2
25.9

28.3
0.5
8.8
35.3
18.4

17.2
10.2
11.4
40.3
16.3

25.8
7.0
14.8
26.4
20.9

20.0
0.6
23.4
26.9
22.3

37.6
2.9
7.3
32.2
14.1

0.5

0.6

0.3

1.0

0.6

0.3

0.0

0.0

5.2
0.3

4.8
0.4

5.3
0.2

6.8
0.8

4.0
0.0

4.8
0.0

6.3
0.6

5.9
0.0

5.4
19.1
17.9
13.2
12.2
10.0
7.6
5.5
4.3
4.8

5.1
16.5
20.0
12.6
11.1
10.1
7.7
6.1
5.3
5.7

6.9
21.7
17.5
11.9
15.9
8.8
6.8
4.2
3.4
2.9

6.8
17.7
17.7
14.5
10.4
11.2
8.3
5.2
3.9
4.4

3.1
23.1
15.4
13.5
13.8
10.2
7.4
4.3
3.4
5.8

3.3
22.7
16.4
15.5
12.7
10.0
7.9
5.2
3.3
3.0

5.7
13.7
13.1
14.3
8.6
9.1
8.6
8.6
5.1
13.1

6.8
20.0
20.5
11.7
10.2
10.7
7.8
6.3
4.9
1.0

Total
Occupation
Unskilled labor
Skilled labor
Small businessman
Shopkeeper (owner)
Businessman/industrialist but do
not have any employee
Businessman/industrialist and
employ 1-9 persons
Businessman/industrialist
employing more than 10+
persons
Self employed
(doctor/engineer/lawyer, etc.)
Clerk/salesman
Employees as supervisor
Junior Officer/executive
Mid level/Senior Officer/Executive
Farmer
Teacher/Imam
Police/Traffic/Ansar
Village Doctor
Peon/Postman
Veterinary/Homeopathic
Job(abroad)
Unemployed
Professor
Retired
Housewife
Student
Education
Illiterate
No Formal Education
Below class-V
Class V-Class X
SSC/HSC
Some college education/diploma
but not graduate
Graduate or above
Graduate or above (professional)
Age
Below 20 years
20-25 years
26-30 years
31-35 years
36-40 years
41-45 years
46-50 years
51-55 years
56-60 years
60+ years
Religion

Total
Muslim
Hindu
Christian
Base - All Respondents

94.9
4.9
0.2
3000

Dhaka

Chittagong

Rajshahi

Division
Khulna

Rangpur

Barisal

Syhlet

94.4
5.6
0.0
990

92.0
7.1
0.8
590

97.4
2.6
0.0
385

95.7
4.3
0.0
325

96.1
3.9
0.0
330

96.6
2.9
0.6
175

96.1
3.9
0.0
205