7, 307 - 321
Keywords: SEIRS epidemic model, Pulse vaccination, Nonlinear incidence, Time delay, Permanence
Introduction
Controlling infectious diseases has been an increasingly complex issue for every
countries in recent years. Many scholars have investigated and studied lots of
epidemic models of ordinary dierential equations. The main aim of studying
epidemic models is to help improve our understanding of the global dynamics
of the spread of infectious diseases. By using the compartmental approach, the
dynamics of the SIR and SIRS epidemic model have been extensively analyzed,
where S(t), I(t) and R(t) denote the number of the susceptible, infective and
recovered at time t, respectively. However, many diseases incubate inside the
hosts for a period of time before the hosts become infectious. The resulting
models are of SEIR or SEIRS types, respectively, depending on whether the
acquired immunity is permanent or otherwise, where E(t) denote the number
of exposed at time t. Moreover, considering some factors of the spread of
0
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S(t)I(t)
+ R(t)
S (t) = b bS(t)
1 + mS(t)
S(t )I(t ) b
S(t)I(t)
E (t) =
e
bE(t)
1 + mS(t)
1 + mS(t )
S(t )I(t ) b
I (t) =
(b + + )I(t)
e
1 + mS(t )
R (t) = I(t) bR(t) R(t)
S(t+ ) = (1 )S(t)
E(t+ ) = E(t)
t = n.
+
I(t ) = I(t)
t = n, n N,
(1)
They investigated the existence of the disease-free periodic solution and obtained its exact expression. Further, they established the sucient conditions
of global attractivity of the disease-free periodic solution and the permanence
of disease.
In the model (1), they only considered the latent period of the disease
(). The form of incidence is S(t)I(t)/(1 + mS(t)), which is saturated with
the susceptible. However, many epidemic diseases have the latent period. In
this paper, we formulate an pulse vaccination SEIRS epidemic model with two
time delays which includes the latent period and the latent period. And the
incidence rate in our model is kI l S/(1 + I h ). We study the following model:
kS(t)I l (t)
+ I(t )e
S (t) = b S(t)
1 + I h (t)
kS(t )I l (t )
kS(t)I l (t)
e
E (t) =
E(t)
1 + I h (t)
1 + I h (t )
kS(t )I l (t )
e
I (t) =
( + )I(t)
1 + I h (t )
R (t) = I(t) I(t )e R(t)
S(t+ ) = (1 )S(t)
E(t+ ) = E(t)
t = nT, n N,
+
I(t ) = I(t)
t = nT, n N,
(2)
where parameters b, , , , , l,hand are positive constants, b is the recruitment rate of susceptible individuals, represents the natural death rate
of the population, is the recovery rate from the infected individuals, is the
immune period of the population, is the latent period of the disease.
In this paper, we will focus on the case when l = 1. Since the rst and
third equations of system (2) do not include the variables E(t) and R(t) the
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kS(t)I(t)
S (t) = b S(t)
+ I(t )e
1 + I h (t)
kS(t )I(t )
e
I (t) =
( + )I(t)
1 + I h (t )
S(t+ ) = (1 )S(t)
t = nT, n N,
I(t+ ) = I(t)
t = nT, n N,
(3)
(4)
where = (1 , 2) C and C is the space of all piecewise continuous functions : [j, 0] R2+ , R2+ = {X R2 : X 0}. has the rst kind of
discontinuity points at nT (n N) which are continuous from the left, i.e.,
(nT ) = (nT ). C is the Banach space with uniform norm
= sup {|1|, |2|}.
[j,0]
Let N(t) = S(t) + E(t) + I(t) + R(t). By adding the equations in model
(2), we obtain
(5)
N (t) = b N(t).
So the total population size may vary in time and N(t) is continuous on
b
t [0, +). From(5), we have lim sup N(t) . Since S (t)|S=0 > 0 and
t+
+
I (t)|I=0 = 0, for t = nT, n N. Moreover, S(nT ) = (1 )S(nT ), I(nT + ) =
I(nT ) for n N. Hence, we obtain the following lemma.
Lemma 2.1 is a positive invariant set of system (3), where = {(S, I)
b
R2+ : 0 S + I } and = + , > 0 is suciently small.
Lemma 2.2 [Gao et al., 2006] Consider the following impulsive dierential
equation
u (t) = a bu(t),
t = nT,
(6)
+
t = nT,
u(t ) = (1 )u(t),
where a > 0, b > 0, 0 < < 1. Then there exists a unique positive periodic
solution of system (6)
ue (t) =
a
a
+ (u )eb(tnT ) ,
b
b
nT < t (n + 1)T
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a (1 )(1 ebT )
.
b 1 (1 )ebT
Lemma 2.3 [Kuang, 1993; Xiao et al.,2001] Consider the following delay
dierential equation:
x (t) = a1 x(t ) a2 x(t)
where a1 , a2 and are all positive constants and x(t) > 0 for t [, 0]. We
have:
(i) If a1 < a2 , then lim x(t) = 0;
t
Global attractivity
In this section, we discuss the global attractivity of infection free periodic solution. The technique of the proofs is to use comparison arguments. Firstly,
we analyze the existence of the infection free periodic solution of system (3),
in which infective individuals are entirely absent from the population permanently, i.e., I(t) = 0 for all t 0. So we know that the growth of the susceptible
in the time-interval nT < t (n + 1)T must satisfy
S (t) = b S(t),
S(t+ ) = (1 )S(t),
t = nT,
t = nT.
(7)
(tnT )
1
e
,
1 (1 )eT
nT < t (n + 1)T
ke (b + e )(1 eT )
.
( + )(1 (1 )eT )
Proof. Since R < 1, we can choose 0 > 0 suciently small such that
ke < + ,
(8)
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(b + e )(1 eT )
+ 0 .
(1 (1 )eT )
We derive from the rst equation of system (3) that
where =
u (t) = (b + e ) u(t),
u(t+ ) = (1 )u(t),
t = nT,
t = nT.
(9)
In view of Lemma 2.2, we obtain the unique periodic solution of system (9)
ue (t)
b + e
(tnT )
=
1
e
,
1 (1 )eT
nT < t (n + 1)T
(b + e )(1 eT )
+0 = ,
T
(1 (1 )e )
nT < t (n+1)T,
n > n1 .
t > nT + ,
n > n1 .
(10)
(11)
Hence, for 0 > 0 suciently small there is an integer n2 > n1 (where n2 T >
n1 T + ) such that if t > n2 T, I(t) < 0 .
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From the rst equation of system (3), we have that for t > n2 T +
kS(t)I(t)
+ I(t )e
1 + I h (t)
> b ( + k0 )S(t)
S (t) = b S(t)
and
Then, we consider the following two comparison impulsive dierential equations for t > n2 T + and n > n2 ,
and
t = nT,
t = nT,
(12)
t = nT,
t = nT.
(13)
In view of Lemma 2.2, we obtain that the unique periodic solutions of system
(12)
u1e (t) =
(k0 +)(tnT )
1
e
,
k0 +
1 (1 )e(k0 +)T
nT < t (n+1)T,
b + e 0
(tnT )
1
e
,
1 (1 )eT
nT < t (n + 1)T,
(14)
(15)
It follows from (11) and (15) that the infection free periodic solution (Se (t), 0)
of system (3) is globally attractive. The completes the proof.
According to Theorem 3.1, we can easily obtain the following results.
Corollary 3.1 If
ke (b + e )
+ , then the infection free periodic
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ke (b + e )
( + )
1 (eT 1),
1
( + )
,
ln 1 +
ke (b + e ) ( + )
k(b + e )(1 eT )
1
= ln
.
(1 (1 )eT )( + )
T =
Corollary 3.3 If > , then the infection free periodic solution (Se (t), 0)
of system (2.2) is globally attractive, where
=
ke (1 eT )
1
ln
.
( + )(1 (1 )eT ) kbe (1 eT )
Permanence
In this section we say the disease is endemic if the infectious population persists
above a certain threshold level for suciently large time. Before starting our
theorem, we give the following denitions and lemma.
Definition 4.1 System (3) is said to be uniformly persistent if there is an
> 0(independent of the initial conditions) such that every solution S(t), I(t)
with initial conditions (4) of system (3) satises
lim inf S(t) ,
t
I = (R 1) =
.
1
k
k ( + )(1 + h )(1 (1 )eT )
R =
and
Lemma 4.1 If R > 1, then for any t0 > 0, it is impossible that I(t) < I for
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all t t0 .
Proof. Suppose the contrary. Then there is a t0 > 0 such that I(t) < I
for all t t0 . According to any positive solution (S(t), I(t)) of system (3), we
dene
t
I(u)S(u)
du
(16)
V (t) = I(t) + ke
t 1 + I h (u)
The second equation of system (3) can be rewritten as
I (t) =
t
ke S(t)
I(u)S(u)
d
(
+
)
du.
I(t)
ke
h
1 + I (t)
dt t 1 + I h (u)
V (t) = ( + )I(t)
ke S(t)
1
(1 + I h (t))( + )
(17)
t t0 .
w (t) = b ( + kI )w(t),
w(t+ ) = (1 )w(t),
t = nT,
t = nT.
(18)
e
+ kI
+ kI 1 (1 )e(+kI )T
+ kI
we (t) =
is globally asymptotically stable. In view of the comparison theorem of impulsive dierential equation, we obtain that there exists an integer t1 (t1 > t0 + )
and suciently small > 0 such that
S(t) > we (t) ,
Since
t t1 .
we (t)
b
(1 )(1 e(+kI )T )
>
,
+ kI 1 (1 )e(+kI )T
then we get
(1 )(1 e(+kI )T )
b
= ,
S(t) >
)T
(+kI
+ kI
1 (1 )e
t t1 .
(19)
ke
1),
(1 + h )( + )
t t1 .
(20)
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Since R < 1, it is easy to get I > 0. Moreover, there exists suciently small
> 0 such that
ke
> 1.
(21)
(1 + h )( + )
From the above results, we obtain that
V (t) > ( + )I(t)(
Dene m =
min
t[t1 ,t1 + ]
ke
1) > 0,
(1 + h )( + )
t t1 .
(22)
t t1 . Suppose that this claim is not valid. Then there exists T such that
I(t) m for t1 t t1 + + T , I(t1 + + T ) = m and I (t1 + + T ) 0.
We can derive from the second equation of system (3) and (19) that
ke I(t1 + + T )S(t1 + + T )
1 + I h (t1 + + T )
( + )I(t1 + + T )
ke
1
( + )m.
>
(1 + h )( + )
I (t1 + + T ) =
ke
m > 0,
1
(1 + h )( + )
t t1 ,
, I(t) I ,
t [t1 , t2 ],
S(t) > ,
t [t1 , t2 ].
Since the positive solutions of (3) are ultimately bounded and I(t) is not
eected by impulses, I(t) is uniformly continuous. Therefore there exists a
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positive constant such that I(t) > I2 fort [t1 , t1 + ], where satises
t [t1 , t2 ].
ke I(t1 + + T )S(t1 + + T )
1 + I h (t1 + + T )
( + )I(t1 + + T )
ke
1)( + )p > 0.
> (
(1 + ( b )h )( + )
x (t) = b ( + k)x(t)
x(t+ ) = (1 )x(t)
t = nT,
t = nT.
(23)
By the similar analysis in the proof of Theorem 3.1, we obtain that limt S(t)
M, where
b (1 )(1 e(+k)T )
1
M=
+ k 1 (1 )e(+k)T
(1 is suciently small.)
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kb(1 )(1 eT )
Discussion
In this paper, we have studied the delayed SEIRS epidemic model with
pulse vaccination and nonlinear incidence. We obtained two thresholds R and
R (see Theorem 3.1 and 4.1) and further discussed if R < 1 then the disease
will be extinct, if R > 1 then the disease will be permanent which means that
after some period of time the disease will become endemic. Corollary 3.2 implies that the disease will disappear if the pulse vaccination rate is larger than
or the length of latent period exceeds or the length of pulse vaccination
period is smaller than T . From Corollary 3.3, we obtain that if the length
of immune period is larger than , the disease will will lead to the extinction. And Corollary 4.1 show that the disease will be uniformly persistent if
the pulse vaccination rate is smaller than or the length of latent period is
smaller than .
We have discussed two cases: (1)R < 1, (2)R > 1. When R 1 R ,
the dynamical behavior of system (3) has not been clear. These works will be
left as our future consideration.
References
[1] Z. Agur, L. Cojocaru, G. Mazor, et al, Pulse mass measles vaccination
across age cohorts, Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, 90 (1993), 11698 - 11702.
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