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# REPORT ON

BIVARIATE ANALYSIS
ASSIGNMENT-2

Submitted to:

Social Research Methods

Submitted by:

Group No.-6
Amaresh Panda
Ankit Jain
Ayushi Gilra
Girish Kuttisankaran
Robin Karlose
Sambit Mishra
Saurabh Arora
Sumukh Savanur
Vijendra Kumar

UM14007
UM14009
UM14011
UM14017
UM14026
UM14044
UM14048
UM14051
UM14057
UM14060

Expectancy

## Variables Used in the research

1. Dependent variable - Life expectancy
Life Expectancy is a statistical average of the number of years
a human lives, assuming mortality conditions during a given
time period. This will vary according to region and time period.
There are great variations in life expectancy between different
parts of the world, mostly caused by differences in public
health, medical care, and diet.
2. Independent Variable - GDP per capita
A measure of the total output of a country that takes
the gross domestic product (GDP) and divides it by the
number of people in the country.
The per capita GDP is especially useful when comparing one
country to another because it shows the relative performance
of the countries

Objective
1. Analyze the relation between GDP per capita and life expectancy of
a country using a cross section data set consisting of data of 180
countries.
2. Identify trends in the life expectancy of India using a time-series
data over the period 2000-2013.

A priori Reasoning
Real GDP per capita is the main indicator of the average persons standard
of living. Having a large GDP enables a country to afford better schools, a
cleaner environment, proper health care, etc. which in turn increases the
life expectancy of people in the country.

Hypothesis
Null Hypothesis: The life expectancy of a country is not directly related
to its GDP per capita.
Alternate Hypothesis: The life expectancy of a country is directly
related to its GDP per capita.

2 | Page

Data Used
1. Cross-section Data set of year 2013

Countries

Life
Expecta
ncy at
birth
(years)

Norway

81.5

Australia

82.5

Switzerland

82.6

Netherlands

81.04

United States

78.94

Germany

80.74

New Zealand

81.13

81.48

Singapore

82.32

Denmark

79.39

Ireland

80.71

Sweden

81.82

Iceland

82.09

United Kingdom

80.55

Hong Kong,
China (SAR)
Korea (Republic
of)

83.38
81.54

Japan

83.58

Israel

81.8

France

81.81

Austria

81.14

3 | Page

GDP
per
Capita
(\$)
65,461.
17
43,550.
08
53,671.
86
43,403.
72
53,142.
89
43,331.
70
34,825.
63
43,247.
04
78,744.
13
42,763.
76
43,304.
25
43,533.
48
39,996.
07
36,196.
72
53,202.
93
1,855.3
8
36,315.
45
32,760.
41
36,907.
27
44,149.
21

Countries

Life
Expecta
ncy at
birth
(years)

Colombia

74.04

76.47

Suriname

71.02

Tonga

72.67

Dominican
Republic

73.4

Maldives

77.92

Mongolia

67.5

Turkmenistan

65.45

Samoa

73.16

Palestine

73.2

Indonesia

70.83

Botswana

64.39

Egypt

71.16

Paraguay

72.26

Gabon

63.48

Bolivia

67.26

Moldova

68.9

72.6

Uzbekistan

68.24

Philippines

68.7

GDP
per
Capita
(\$)
12,370.
94
10,468.
73
16,226.
18
5,302.9
1
11,695.
78
11,653.
89
9,432.6
6
14,000.
74
5,053.7
3
15,092.
30
9,558.7
9
15,675.
23
10,468.
73
8,043.0
2
19,259.
63
6,129.5
6
4,669.2
3
7,762.2
4
5,167.0
2
6,532.5
8

Belgium

80.55

Luxembourg

80.55

Finland

80.54

Slovenia

79.59

Italy

82.39

Spain

82.1

Czech Republic

77.69

Greece

80.77

Brunei
Darussalam

78.55

Qatar

78.37

Cyprus

79.84

Estonia

74.44

Saudi Arabia

75.48

Lithuania

72.11

Poland

76.41

Slovakia

75.4

Malta

79.75

Chile

79.96

Portugal

79.94

Hungary

74.62

Bahrain

76.61

Croatia

77.05

Latvia

72.15

Uruguay

77.23

Bahamas

75.24

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40,338.
15
90,789.
65
38,250.
66
28,298.
41
34,302.
63
32,103.
48
27,344.
27
25,650.
96
71,759.
10
131,757
.56
29,450.
09
25,048.
69
53,780.
42
25,416.
70
23,274.
80
26,114.
49
30,213.
07
21,911.
30
25,899.
53
22,877.
51
43,823.
51
20,904.
09
23,028.
05
19,589.
58
17,139.
29

South Africa

56.92

Iraq

69.42

Guyana

66.3

Viet Nam

75.94

Cape Verde

75.09

Guatemala

72.1

Kyrgyzstan

67.53

Namibia

64.48

Timor-Leste

67.54

Honduras

73.82

Morocco

70.94

Vanuatu

71.63

Nicaragua

74.84

Kiribati

68.91

Tajikistan

67.25

India

66.41

Bhutan

68.29

Cambodia

71.92

Ghana

61.13

People's
Democratic
Republic

68.31

Congo

58.79

Zambia

58.11

70.66

Sao Tome
and Principe
Equatorial
Guinea

66.34
53.06

12,503.
69
15,187.
87
6,550.9
7
18,193.
92
43,247.
04
7,294.8
0
3,212.1
5
9,684.9
9
2,241.8
9
4,591.4
7
7,200.4
1
2,991.0
3
4,570.8
3
1,855.3
8
2,511.6
3
5,410.2
9
7,669.2
4
3,041.8
5
3,974.5
0
4,812.0
1
1,558.7
8
3,180.6
0
2,557.4
1
2,970.3
4
33,720.
22

Montenegro

74.82

Belarus

69.93

Romania

73.83

Libya

75.33

Oman

76.55

Russian
Federation

67.98

Bulgaria

73.55

Palau

72.41

Antigua and
Barbuda

75.95

Malaysia

75.02

Mauritius

73.61

Tobago

69.86

Lebanon

80.01

Panama

77.56

Venezuela

74.63

Costa Rica

79.93

Turkey

75.26

Kazakhstan

66.54

Mexico

77.5

Seychelles

73.19

Nevis

73.57

Sri Lanka

74.29

Iran

74.05

Azerbaijan

70.75

Jordan

73.85

Serbia

74.06

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14,318.
36
17,615.
46
18,634.
80
21,397.
26
44,051.
87
24,120.
29
15,940.
54
15,092.
30
20,976.
51
23,297.
63
17,199.
95
30,438.
56
17,169.
64
19,411.
48
2,991.0
3
13,872.
46
18,975.
46
23,205.
64
16,463.
39
24,188.
65
1,451.7
5
9,735.7
4
9,558.7
9
17,139.
29
11,781.
62
12,373.
99

Nepal

68.41

Pakistan

66.57

Kenya

61.72

Swaziland

49

Angola

51.9

Rwanda

64.07

Cameroon

55.07

Nigeria

52.51

Yemen

63.11

64.72

Zimbabwe

59.87

Papua New
Guinea
Solomon
Islands

62.42
67.68

Comoros

60.87

Tanzania

61.53

Mauritania

61.55

Lesotho

49.45

Senegal

63.45

Uganda

59.21

Benin

59.33

Sudan

62.06

Togo

56.54

Haiti

63.1

Afghanistan
Djibouti
Cte d'Ivoire

60.95
61.8
50.72

2,244.2
5
4,698.8
9
2,264.7
0
6,683.5
0
7,538.1
9
1,451.7
5
2,711.0
4
5,601.0
4
14,292.
55
1,394.6
5
1,700.0
2
2,538.4
6
2,068.4
6
1,558.7
8
1,774.6
2
3,042.4
9
2,585.6
5
2,268.5
8
1,410.0
3
1,790.9
6
3,372.1
5
1,390.1
8
1,702.6
1
1,989.6
1
2,998.0
1
3,011.9
3

Brazil

73.94

Georgia

74.3

72.77

Peru

74.83

Ukraine

68.53

Belize

73.88

Republic of
Macedonia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina

75.2
76.37

Armenia

74.56

Fiji

69.81

Thailand

74.4

Tunisia

75.87

China

75.33

Saint Vincent
and the

72.49

Algeria

71

Dominica

77.67

Albania

77.39

Jamaica

73.53

Saint Lucia

74.8

15,033.
78
7,164.5
8
11,497.
98
11,775.
37
8,787.8
3
8,441.7
7
14,390.
01
9,632.3
8
7,774.3
8
7,948.2
6
14,390.
01
11,092.
15
11,903.
60
1,451.7
5
13,304.
01
10,029.
52
10,488.
82
8,889.7
2
1,451.7
5

58.82

Ethiopia

63.64

Malawi

55.31

779.81

Liberia

60.56

877.78

Mali

55.03

GuineaBissau

54.29

Mozambique

50.25

Guinea

56.11

Burundi

54.1

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1,641.4
3
1,242.4
5
1,045.3
8
1,255.2
3
770.62
1,634.0
2
1,195.3
8
1,926.5
2
2,080.7
4

Burkina Faso

56.34

Eritrea

62.85

Sierra Leone

45.56

51.18

Central
African
Republic

50.18

603.60

Congo

49.96

1,558.7
8

Niger

58.41

912.57

Korea

70

Marshall
Islands

72.62

South Sudan

55.26

Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

19,259.
63
1,353.7
9

Gambia

## GDP per Capita(\$)

2063
2176
2257
2444
2669
2966

Life Expectancy
61.45
61.97
62.32
62.67
63.02
63.37

1,855.3
8
3,710.3
5
2,330.0
1

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

3294
3662
3827
4129
4549
4883
5138
5410

63.72
64.07
64.42
64.78
65.13
65.96
66.21
66.4

Sources
*http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/table-1-human-development-index-and-its-components
*http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD

Regression Results
Models
Linear

Linear Trend

R2

Equation
Y = 65.573 +0.000*X
Sig: (0.000)

(0.000)

Y=-700.138+0.381*T
Sig: (0.000)

(0.000)

0.342

0.994

Y=62.879+0.001*X+0.000*X^2

Cubic

Log Linear

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Sig: (0.000)
(0.000)

(0.000)

Y=61.262+0.001*X+0.000*X^2
+0.000*X^3
Sig: (0.000) (0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
Y=0.073*X^1.533
Sig: (0.000)

(0.000)

0.464

0.492

0.502

Semi-Log

lnY=ln(-3.381)+0.003*T
Sig: (0.000)

0.994

(0.000)

Summary of Output
Depende
nt
Variables
Life
Constant
Expectanc (significan
y
ce level)
Linear
Log Linear
Cubic
Semi-log
Linear
trends

65.573
(.000)
1.533
(.000)
62.879
(.000)
61.262
(.000)
-3.381
(.000)
-700.138
(.000)

Independent Variables

B1
(significan
ce level)

B2
(significan
ce level)

B3
(significan
ce level)

R2

.000
(.000)
0.079
(.000)
.001
(.000)
.001
(.000)
.003
(.000)
.381
(.000)

0.342

0.502

-4.045E-9
(.000)
-1.348E-8
(.000)
-

0.464

5.778E-14
(.000)
-

0.492

0.994

0.994

We have used cross section data for the first 4 models, i.e., linear, log
linear, quadratic and cubic and time series data for the last two models,
i.e. Semi-Log & Linear Trend.
Cross-section Analysis: - The individual significance values for all the
co-efficients & constant in each of the models is close to zero thus it is
statistically significant. We can also see of all the first four models the R 2
value for log linear model is the highest. So, log linear model has higher
explanatory power. However, the R2 value is not so high and stands at
8 | Page

## 0.502. So we cant properly explain the relationship, i.e. life expectancy of

a country is directly related to its GDP. This may be due to other
unaccounted variables like healthcare of the country, cost of living etc.
due to which we are unable to find a relationship and this requires
multivariate analysis instead of bivariate analysis. Moreover, the elasticity
values of the first four models are very low thus it suggests that there will
be very less change (nearly zero) in the life expectancy with the variation
of GDP per capita. Thus Null-Hypothesis is to be accepted.
Trend Analysis :- In case of semi log and linear trend model, both the
models are effective in explaining the chosen model because their R2
values are very high, i.e. 0.994 (very close to one) and all the significance
values are close to zero thus statistically significant. The elasticity values
in both the models have significant values, although on the lower side,
suggests a positive relationship of Life expectancy with time.

Appendix
SPSS data and SPSS output is present in below attached files:-

## Bivariate Time-Series Analysis.sav

9 | Page

Analysis Output of
SPSS