The worlds next nations: a

brief guide
After Scotland, heres whos voting on independence
next
By Thanassis Cambanis
| GLOBE CORRESPONDENT

JULY 27, 2014

GLOBE STAFF PHOTOILLUSTRATION

Surveying our violent and sometimes weird world, it might seem that things
change only for the worse. Tensions between Moscow and Washington, with
ripple effects across the globe? Check. Iranian ayatollahs fulminating against the
Satanic West? Check. Israel and Palestine at war again? Check.
But one historically bloody rite of passage seems to have gotten a lot easier of
late: the birth of a nation.
Typically, when part of a country has wanted to break away, it means war. The
American Revolution was a war of secession fought by colonists against the
British Empire. And the 20th centurys two great waves of nation-building were
cataclysmic: After the end of World War I in 1918, peoples around the world
broke away from empires and formed their own states, emboldened by the
idealism of American President Woodrow Wilson. Tens of millions were killed
and displaced in the process. After World War II, dozens of Asian and African
countries declared independence as they expelled colonial occupiers, sometimes
with acceptance, often with bloodshed.

Related

Where are they now? Recently independent nations

Lately, however, the world has seen some surprisingly smooth independence
movements in which the path to statehood has been achieved through voting,
not battle. The latest candidate for the new nations club is another British
territory: Scotland.
On Sept. 18, Scots will vote whether to withdraw from their union with Britain.
Like their 18th-century counterparts in the American Colonies, if they declare
independence they will remove bountiful riches from Londons control, in this
case probably most of the North Sea oil fields. But in a sign of changing times,
the United Kingdom is only striking against the secessionists with words. Prime
Minister David Cameron has promised to accept the referendum results.
A lot has to go right for an independence vote to take place, and to be honored.
A parent nation has to be confident enoughor scarred enough by civil

infightingto let go willingly. A breakaway republic needs the resources to

survive and prosper on its own. And a stable region helps: South Sudan, the
worlds newest country (see sidebar), has already fallen back into the violence
that characterized its existence as a persecuted region under the control of
Khartoum.
Scotlands coming vote might be getting all the attention, but there are other
countries with independence referendums in the offing. Some are more likely to
work out than others; if they do, the world could see a handful of new flags, and
also new challenges. Heres a tour of the new nations you just might be able to
visit soon.

Scotland

If it votes for independence on Sept. 18, Scotland will become the newest
entrant to the European Union. Its already a popular tourist destination and an
economic powerhouse. If current political trends continue, an independent
Scotland will form a leftist, socialist counterpart to a more right-wing England.
The Scots have proven more committed to national health care and labor rights
than Britain under Conservative rule. Edinburghs Fringe Festival has been an

alternative cultural mainstay for decades, and Glasgow served as Europes

Cultural Capital in 1990.
Will it change much? Maybe Scotland will be forced to abandon the pound
sterling after three centuries, but an independent Scotland probably wont look
that different. Its unlikely to sever its relationship to the United Kingdom
entirely, like Ireland did. It probably will maintain formal allegiance to the
queen, like other former British territories including Australia and Canada. And
its economy will remain intertwined with that of England, with whom it will
continue to share a common language and island.

Catalonia

The region of Spain that gave us Gaudi, Barcelona, and George Orwells best
work of reportage has often been an economic basket case, but its undeniably
beautiful region with an undeniable sense of separate identity. People there
proudly speak Catalan, a Romance language as different from Spanish as
Portuguese or French, and many refuse to identify as Spanish. Separatist parties
won the Catalan regional elections in 2012 and promised to hold an
independence vote, now scheduled for Nov. 9.
Its unclear whether Catalonia could prosper independently; Spain, overall, isnt
doing so well itself. The region has its own manufacturing and finance base, and
it remains a popular tourist destination. Unshackled from Spain, Catalonia
would be likely to even more boldly embrace its linguistic differences and the

regions more populist politics. Visitors already in thrall to the delicious cuisine,
with its famous mixing of pork and seafood, and eclectic architecture, will be
able to bask in a romantic storyline of a persistent, stubborn, and maybe even
ill-conceived commitment to national independence.
If it votes yes, Catalonias path forward wont be smooth: The Spanish
government says it wont honor an independence referendum. Barcelona, the
would-be capital, will have to negotiate gingerly with Madridwhich has
promised to block the EU membership of not only Catalonia, but also Scotland,
for fear of setting a precedent. Catalan leaders are already considering how to go
around Spain and appeal for recognition from foreign countries and the United
Nations.
If they both dig in, expect a long and strange standoff, but a diplomatic one: Its
almost impossible to imagine contemporary Spain going to war to retain control
of its wealthy eastern region.

Western Sahara

This one has been underway for longer than most college students have been
alive. A huge, mineral-rich territory almost as large as Morocco itself, Western

Sahara stretches south of Morocco along the Atlantic Coast. If it didnt have
generous phosphate deposits to mine, its conceivable that its half-million
inhabitants would have been left alone when Spain ended its colonial rule in
1975. Instead, Morocco moved in and fought a long war with a local
independence group called the Polisario Front. Since 1991, the United Nations
has monitored a cease-fire and was mandated to organize an independence
referendum to settle Western Saharas future.
Some diplomatsperhaps a bit Pollyanna-ishbelieve that the vote could
finally come to pass in two or three years, and their assumption is that the
independence faction would win. Western Sahara has beautiful desertscapes
and an undeveloped coastline; it is huge, 100,000 square miles, and mostly
uninhabited. It probably wouldnt join Morocco as a top tourist destination, but
its mining industry and natural resources could position it as a relatively
wealthy neighbor to Morocco and Algeria, if things go rightor could doom it to
the resource curse that often mires resource-rich countries in poverty and
underdevelopment.

New Caledonia

A French-controlled island in the Pacific, New Caledonia gained renown

because of the brutal measures the French undertook to suppress the locals in
the 19th century, and later for its critical role as an Allied naval base during
World War II. Today it is one of the most prosperous economies in the South
Pacific, with healthy agriculture, tourism, and mining sectors. French support
has been generous, which might explain why voters rejected independence
during a referendum in the 1980s.

Secessionist parties have grown in popularity since, however, and a second vote
will be held before 2018. If it succeeds, New Caledonia would join Djibouti,
Algeria, and the dozens of former French colonies sprinkled around the globe.
France has already said it wont fight to keep New Caledonia, but its not clear
whether the island will really cut its ties: Many local opponents of independence
believe that when they get to the voting booth, residents wont want to let go of
the French subsidies that would disappear after independence.

Bougainville

A tropical Pacific island currently ruled by Papua New Guinea, Bougainville has
a copper mine and about 250,000 inhabitants. Past governments have hired
foreign mercenaries to quash secessionist rebellions, but now Bougainville is
scheduled to vote on independence between 2015 and 2020 and Papua New
Guinea now seems resigned to let the territory go if voters support
independence.
Aside from miners, its unlikely to attract casual visitors. Like Papua New
Guinea, its hard to reach. Fun fact: Its named after the same French navigator
as the ubiquitous warm-climate bougainvillea vine.

Iraqi Kurdistan

One example of the slow-and-steady approach is Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurds have

ruled their own enclave, more or less free from Baghdad, since 1991. They speak
their own language, have their own regional government, and have developed
their own oil industry. Kurdistan is its own country for all practical purposes; it

even has its own border guards. But it has avoided war and preserved its
relations with neighboring Iran and Turkey (which have their own restive
Kurdish minorities) by stopping short of declaring independence.
Now, with Iraqs central government distracted by its war against the jihadi
Islamic State, the president of the autonomous Kurdish Regional Government
this month ordered his parliament to set up an independence referendum. Until
recently, Kurdish politicians believed they could never secede without some
kind of buy-in from Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran, all of which oppose Kurdish
independence. But the new turmoil in the region has these governments
distracted with more pressing issues, and they might be willing to accept an
independent Kurdistan if it means a genuinely stable new neighbor.
If the referendum were to pass, Kurdistan would be a landlocked mountainous
territory with stunning mountains and lakes and major oil and natural gas
reserves. Compared to its neighbors, Kurdistan has been prosperous and
politically coherent, controlled mostly by a few traditional clans who have
proven adept at developing the economy and coopting potential challenges from
Turkey and Iran by inviting them to invest heavily in Kurdistans economic
boom. A free Kurdistan would bring to a close a curious irony: one of the Middle
Easts most stable countries in recent years has stayed that way by not being a
country at all.
Thanassis Cambanis, a fellow at The Century Foundation, is the author of A
Privilege to Die: Inside Hezbollahs Legions and Their Endless War Against
Israel. He is an Ideas columnist and blogs at thanassiscambanis.com.