May 5, 2011
FY10A
Operating Income (Rs. crore) 15,758.2
EBITDA Margin (%)
16.9%
PAT Margin (%)
14.2%
EPS (Rs.)
111.8
EPS Growth (%)
74%
P/E (x)
14.3
P/BV (x)
9.2
RoE
61.4%
RoCE
75.2%
EV/EBITDA
11.3
Source: Company; ICRA Onlines Estimates
A: Actual; E: Estimated; P: Projected
FY11E
19,245.0
12.8%
10.0%
96.5
-14%
16.6
9.7
57.0%
69.5%
12.5
FY12P
21,992.5
14.0%
9.3%
102.7
6%
15.6
7.1
52.4%
65.0%
10.0
FY13P
24,746.7
14.2%
9.9%
122.3
19%
13.1
5.3
46.4%
57.5%
8.8
FY14P
27,486.5
14.3%
10.4%
142.7
17%
11.2
4.1
41.6%
51.5%
7.8
Fundamental
Assessment
5
4
3
2
1
Valuation Assessment
A
B
C
D
E
5C
1,600
19.97
31,952
2,075
1,378
50%
0.52
16.6
HHMLs revenue growth momentum to sustain, although base effect likely to moderate the growth rate
We expect the 2W industry to maintain a sales volume CAGR of 12-13% over the period 2011-15 and HHMLs net
sales to grow at a CAGR of 11-12% during the above period. The volume growth of the 2W industry is expected to
be driven by favourable underlying demand drivers like rising per capita GDP, low 2W penetration, favourable
demographics and swelling replacement demand. Over the years, HHML has maintained its market leadership in the
2W industry particularly in the executive segment of motorcycles. We expect HHML to maintain its leadership
status over the medium term by virtue of the companys strong brand equity, vast distribution network, established
supply chain and healthy cost structure. HHMLs ongoing and proposed capacity expansion push in the form of
setting up of the fourth production line at the Haridwar plant and plans to set-up a fourth plant is expected to allow
it to capitalize on the growth opportunities continued to be offered by the 2W industry. HHMLs success in
significantly growing its exports will be an upside to our estimates.
HHMLs EBITDA margins likely to come under pressure over the short to medium term
While HHMLs Net Sales at Rs. 5,350.9 Crore in Q4,
2010-11 grew by 4.5% QoQ, the companys reported
EBITDA at Rs. 789.9 Crore grew by 48.2% QoQ. The
significant improvement in HHMLs EBITDA margins
by 435 bps over the preceding quarter was mainly
due to discontinuation of royalty payments by the
company to HMC w.e.f. January 1, 2011.
In
accordance with the new licensing agreement
between HHML and HMC (more details in next
section), HHML has capitalized the total payments to
be made to HMC in lieu of license granted and would
be amortizing the same over a period of 42 months
(January 2011 to June 2014). Accordingly, while
#2
HHMLs operating costs during Q4, 2010-11 appear to have decreased, its amortization charges have increased to
that extent. Adjusting for the same, HHMLs EBITDA margins are estimated to have improved to 11.5% in Q4, 201011 from 10.4% in Q3, 2010-11; although they were still lower than the 16.7% EBITDA margins in Q4, 2009-10 due
to the impact of raw material costs escalation during 2010-11. While we expect HHMLs EBITDA margins to
improve to 14.0% in 2011-12 (12.8% in 2010-11) due to discontinuation of royalty charges, other factors including
raw material price inflation, intensifying competition leading to diminished pricing power, expected increase in
R&D and marketing expenditure and higher amortization charges are likely to restrict expansion in net margins.
New Licensing Agreement and Royalty Charges
In December 2010, HHML had entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with HMC (effective from
January 01, 2011) and in accordance therewith subsequently entered into New License Agreements (pursuant to
the Share Transfer Agreement), wherein HMC has given to HHML the right and license to manufacture, assemble,
sell and distribute products/ parts; and license to export certain products and their service parts under the
intellectual property rights.
The amount to be paid by HHML for licenses granted as stated above of Rs. 1,928.4 Crore for manufacture,
assembly, selling and distribution; and Rs.551.0 Crore for export license has been capitalised as Intangible Assets
(along with applicable cess and taxes), based on the probability that the future economic benefits attributable to
these assets will flow to the Company. Also, w.e.f. January 0l, 2011 onwards, HHMLs liability to pay ongoing royalty
for all the existing / modified products / parts has ceased.
Table 1: Comparison of Royalty Charges Payable by HHML as per earlier agreement vis-a-vis new licensing agreement
Estimated Royalty Charges @2.6% of Net Sales in case JV would
have continued*
Actual
Estimated
2009-10
9m,
2010-11E
Q4,
2010-11E
2011-12E
2012-13E
2013-14E
Q1,
2014-15E
Total Royalty
(Jan 2011 to
June 2014)
13,894.1
367.1
2.6%
5,350.9
141.4
2.6%
21,992.5
581.9
2.6%
24,746.7
653.9
2.6%
27,486.5
726.2
2.6%
7,390.1
195.3
2.6%
2,297.8
Q4,
2010-11E
2011-12E
2012-13E
2013-14E
Q1,
2014-15E
177.1
708.4
708.4
708.4
177.1
Total Royalty
(Jan 2011 to
June 2014)
2,479.3
#3
VALUATION GRADE
Since our last update (on February 3, 2011), HHMLs stock price has risen by 2.2%, S&P CNX Nifty has risen by 0.1%
and the BSE Auto Index has risen by 2.7%. We find HHMLs current valuation (16.7 times FY11 earnings and 15.5
times FY12 earnings) to be at a premium to that of its peers as well as compared to the broader indices. We believe
that HHMLs current valuations factor in the trend in improvement in the companys market share over the last
several months; and the relatively greater clarity now about the business and financial implications on HHML due to
the cessation of its JV agreement with HMC. Overall, we find HHML fairly valued as compared with its peers and the
broader indices, and hence maintain the valuation grade of C for HHML on a grading scale of A to E, which
indicates that the company is fairly valued on a relative basis.
HHML
FY12
FY13
FY12
FY13
Price/ Earnings
15.5
13.1
EV/ EBITDA
10.0
8.8
Price/ Sales
1.5
1.3
7.1
5.3
14.7
10.3
1.7
2.5
12.5
8.5
1.5
2.2
14.5
10.4
1.7
2.5
12.3
8.5
1.5
2.1
FY13
10.7
7.0
0.8
2.8
9.4
6.3
0.7
2.2
P&L Results
Q4, FY10
Q4, FY11
Q4, FY11
QoQ%
YoY%
5,118.2
5,118.2
4,092.6
4,092.6
5,350.9
5,350.9
4.5%
30.7%
4.5%
30.7%
EBITDA
Depreciation
Extra-ordinary gain/(loss)
PBT
PAT
533.1
56.0
(79.8)
508.0
429.0
682.0
48.7
737.0
598.8
789.9
237.4
658.8
501.6
48.2%
324.2%
15.8%
387.9%
29.7%
16.9%
-10.6%
-16.2%
19.97
21.5
24.3
19.97
30.0
32.4
19.97
25.1
37.0
16.7%
14.6%
14.8%
9.4%
Rs. crore
Net Sales
Other Related Income
Operating Income
EBITDA Margin
10.4%
PAT Margin
8.4%
Source: Company Results; ICRA Onlines Estimates
#4
FY09A
FY10A
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
FY14E
Net Sales
Other Related Income
Operating Income
12,319.1
0.0
12,319.1
15,758.2
0.0
15,758.2
19,245.0
0.0
19,245.0
21,992.5
0.0
21,992.5
24,746.7
0.0
24,746.7
27,486.5
0.0
27,486.5
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest Expenses
Other Income
PBT
PAT
Minority Interest
PAT (Concern Share)
No of Shares (Cr)
DPS
EPS
CEPS
1,741.8
180.7
1,561.1
2.5
222.9
1,781.5
1,281.8
0.0
1,281.8
19.97
23.4
64.2
73.2
2,670.8
191.5
2,479.3
2.1
354.5
2,831.7
2,231.8
0.0
2,231.8
19.97
128.6
111.8
121.4
2,460.9
402.4
2,058.5
1.4
347.7
2,404.8
1,927.9
0.0
1,927.9
19.97
105.0
96.5
116.7
3,082.5
962.5
2,120.0
0.9
422.5
2,541.5
2,051.1
0.0
2,051.1
19.97
41.1
102.7
150.9
3,503.7
991.4
2,512.3
0.9
514.1
3,025.4
2,441.7
0.0
2,441.7
19.97
48.9
122.3
171.9
3,930.6
1,020.3
2,910.3
0.9
621.2
3,530.6
2,849.4
0.0
2,849.4
19.97
57.1
142.7
193.8
FY10A
FY11E
FY09A
FY12E
FY13E
FY14E
1,573.7
120.5
1,694.3
1,658.8
48.1
1,706.9
4,103.9
190.0
4,293.9
3,541.4
190.0
3,731.4
2,949.9
190.0
3,139.9
2,329.6
190.0
2,519.6
3,368.8
219.6
149.9
326.8
237.4
79.7
3,925.7
1,907.2
108.4
436.4
307.9
122.6
2,844.3
1,200.0
280.7
570.9
376.1
115.0
4,294.8
1,200.0
320.8
642.0
429.8
124.6
6,009.3
1,200.0
361.0
721.1
483.6
145.6
7,995.7
1,200.0
401.0
799.4
537.1
167.4
Total Assets
6,076.5
8,515.2
9,680.9
10,743.3
12,060.5
13,620.2
FY09A
FY10A
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
FY14E
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Total Debt
Deferred Tax Liability
Trade Creditors
Other Current Liabilities and Prov.
3,800.8
0.0
78.5
144.4
703.0
1,349.8
3,465.0
0.0
66.0
152.8
1,111.4
2,122.5
3,296.2
0.0
32.7
152.8
1,304.9
4,894.3
4,526.9
0.0
32.7
160.2
1,467.5
4,556.0
5,991.9
0.0
32.7
169.1
1,648.1
4,218.6
7,701.6
0.0
32.7
179.5
1,827.2
3,879.3
Total Liabilities
6,076.5
8,515.2
9,680.9
10,743.3
12,060.5
13,620.2
#5
FY09A
FY10A
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
FY14E
PBT
Taxes Paid
Depreciation
Change in net working capital
Cash flow from operating activities
1,781.5
480.6
180.7
239.9
1,721.3
2,831.7
591.6
191.5
999.6
3,431.3
2,404.8
476.9
402.4
2,598.0
4,928.3
2,541.5
482.9
962.5
(350.2)
2,670.9
3,025.4
574.8
991.4
(350.9)
3,091.2
3,530.6
670.8
1,020.3
(353.9)
3,526.2
Investments
Capital Expenditure
Cash flow from investing activities
(801.9)
(310.2)
(1,112.1)
(557.0)
(204.1)
(761.1)
1,081.4
(2,989.3)
(1,908.0)
(1,450.5)
(400.0)
(1,850.5)
(1,714.5)
(400.0)
(2,114.5)
(1,986.4)
(400.0)
(2,386.4)
0.0
(53.5)
0.0
(467.6)
(521.1)
0.0
(12.5)
0.0
(970.1)
(982.5)
0.0
(33.3)
0.0
(3,694.2)
(3,727.5)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(820.5)
(820.5)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(976.7)
(976.7)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(1,139.8)
(1,139.8)
#6
COMPANY PROFILE
Hero Honda Motors Limited (HHML) is the worlds largest two-wheeler (2W) company in terms of sales
volumes, a position that it has been holding for the last nine consecutive years. HHML was promoted as a joint
venture (JV) between the Hero Group of the Munjal family and Honda Motor Company (HMC, Japan), with
each holding around 26% equity stake in the company. HHML has three manufacturing facilities, located at
Gurgaon (Haryana), Dharuhera (Haryana) and Haridwar (Uttarakhand) with an aggregate capacity to
produce 5.4 million vehicles per annum.
HHML offers motorcycles in all the three 2W segments: CD Dawn and CD Deluxe in the Entry segment;
Splendor, Passion and Glamour in the Executive segment; and Achiever, Hunk, CBZ Xtreme, and Karizma in
the Premium segment. Splendor and Passion are the two largest selling 2W brands in the country with
monthly sales of around 200,000 and 100,000 units respectively. The company made its debut in the scooters
segment in January 2006 with the launch of Pleasure in the ungeared scooters segment; the sales volumes of
this model have grown from around 93,000 units in FY07 to over 200,000 units in FY10. Overall, HHML has
consistently outperformed its domestic 2W peers in the past, making steady gains in market share.
In terms of business structure, HHML has a fairly well integrated supply chain consisting of 256 vendors,
including 36 ancillaries. In FY10, the company achieved full online vendor connectivity, a programme that it
had embarked upon four years earlier. With this, HHMLs supply chain efficiencies are likely to improve
further and the benefits of that would accrue not only to the company but to all its vendors. While HHML has
maintained strong relationships with its domestic vendors, it also sources certain key components from
overseas suppliers. According to the companys management, securing supplies from Asian automotive
suppliers and making better use of Indias Free Trade Agreements would be a key element of HHMLs
sourcing strategy, going forward. In line with online connectivity of its supply chains back-end, HHML has
also taken several initiatives to deploy information systems for managing its front-end operations. In FY10,
HHML implemented a retail sales capturing system that seeks to enable the company better understand its
customer mix; besides, it has also partly deployed a Dealer Management System (DMS). These initiatives are
expected to enable HHML further strengthen its distribution network, the largest in the Indian 2W industry,
consisting of 4,500 customer touch points and in the rural segment reaching over 100,000 villages.
GRADING POSITIVES
Market leadership, strong brand equity, professional management, high operating efficiency and established
scale economies. Strong financial profile characterised by healthy margins, high profitability and cash
generation. Potential upsides to our estimates: (1) HHML sustains its current market share, leveraging its
brand equity, product performance and distribution strengths; (2) industry growth exceeds our estimates
over the medium term in a scenario of strong macroeconomic performance; (3) HHML betters the margins
estimated by us via sustained business growth and increases in operating efficiency even in the face of
competitive and cost pressures.
GRADING SENSITIVITIES
Key sensitivities to our estimates include: (1) inflation in input costs not being neutralised by price increases
because of competitive pressures; (2) high concentration on Executive segment; (3) intensifying competition
following the entry of global players and resurgence of other Indian 2W companies; (4) ability to develop inhouse technical capability or form alternate technical tie-ups with external institutions
#7
ICRA Limited
ICRA Limited
CORPORATE OFFICE
Building No. 8, 2nd Floor,
CORPORATE
OFFICE
Tower A, DLF Cyber
City, Phase II,
Building
8, 2nd Floor,
Gurgaon No.
122002
Tower
A,
DLF
Cyber
Phase II,
Ph: +91-124-4545300,City,
4545800
Gurgaon 122002
Fax; +91-124-4545350
Ph: +91-124-4545300, 4545800
Fax; +91-124-4545350
REGISTERED OFFICE
1105, Kailash Building, 11th Floor,
REGISTERED OFFICE
26, Kasturba Gandhi Marg, th
1105, Kailash Building, 11 Floor,
New Delhi 110 001
26, Kasturba Gandhi Marg,
Tel: +91-11-23357940-50
New Delhi 110 001
Fax: +91-11-23357014
Tel: +91-11-23357940-50
Fax: +91-11-23357014
MUMBAI
Mr. L. Shivakumar
MUMBAI
Mobile:
9821086490
Mr.
L. Shivakumar
3rd Floor,
Electric Mansion,
Mobile:
9821086490
Appasaheb
MaratheMansion,
Marg, Prabhadevi,
3rd
Floor, Electric
Mumbai - 400
025 Marg, Prabhadevi,
Appasaheb
Marathe
Ph : +91-22-30470000,
Mumbai
- 400 025
24331046/53/62/74/86/87
Ph : +91-22-30470000,
Fax
: +91-22-2433 1390
24331046/53/62/74/86/87
E-mail:
shivakumar@icraindia.com
Fax : +91-22-2433
1390
E-mail: shivakumar@icraindia.com
CHENNAI
Mr. Jayanta Chatterjee
CHENNAI
Mobile: 9845022459
Mr.
Mr. Jayanta
D. Vinod Chatterjee
Mobile:
Mobile: 9845022459
9940648006
Mr. D. Vinod
5th Floor, Karumuttu Centre,
Mobile: 9940648006
498 Anna Salai, Nandanam,
5th Floor, Karumuttu Centre,
Chennai-600035.
498 Anna Salai, Nandanam,
Tel: +91-44-45964300,
Chennai-600035.
24340043/9659/8080
Tel: +91-44-45964300,
Fax:91-44-24343663
24340043/9659/8080
E-mail: jayantac@icraindia.com
Fax:91-44-24343663
d.vinod@icraindia.com
E-mail: jayantac@icraindia.com
d.vinod@icraindia.com
KOLKATA
Ms. Anuradha Ray
KOLKATA
Mobile:
9831086462
Ms.
Anuradha
Ray
A-10 & 11,
3rd Floor, FMC Fortuna,
Mobile:
9831086462
234/ 3A,
A.J.C.
Road,
A-10
& 11,
3rdBose
Floor,
FMC Fortuna,
Kolkata-700020.
234/ 3A, A.J.C. Bose Road,
Tel: +91-33-22876617/ 8839,
Kolkata-700020.
22800008,
22831411 8839,
Tel: +91-33-22876617/
Fax:
+91-33-2287
0728
22800008,
22831411
E-mail:
anuradha@icraindia.com
Fax: +91-33-2287
0728
E-mail: anuradha@icraindia.com
GURGAON
Mr.
Vivek Mathur
GURGAON
Mobile:
9871221122
Mr. Vivek
Mathur
Building
No. 8, 2nd Floor,
Mobile: 9871221122
Tower
A,
DLF
City, Phase II,
Building No. 8,Cyber
2nd Floor,
Gurgaon
Tower A,122002
DLF Cyber City, Phase II,
Ph:
+91-124-4545300,
4545800
Gurgaon
122002
Fax;
+91-124-4545350 4545800
Ph: +91-124-4545300,
Fax; +91-124-4545350
E-mail:
vivek@icraindia.com
E-mail: vivek@icraindia.com
AHMEDABAD
Mr.
Animesh Bhabhalia
AHMEDABAD
Mobile:
9824029432
Mr. Animesh
Bhabhalia
907
& 908
Sakar -II, Ellisbridge,
Mobile:
9824029432
Ahmedabad380006
907 & 908 Sakar -II, Ellisbridge,
Tel:
+91-79-26585049/2008/5494,
Ahmedabad380006
Fax:+91-792648 4924
Tel: +91-79-26585049/2008/5494,
E-mail:
animesh@icraindia.com
Fax:+91-792648 4924
E-mail: animesh@icraindia.com
HYDERABAD
Mr. M.S.K. Aditya
HYDERABAD
Mobile: 9963253777
Mr. M.S.K.
Aditya 3rd Floor,
301,
CONCOURSE,
Mobile:
9963253777
No.
7-1-58,
Ameerpet,
301, CONCOURSE, 3rd Floor,
Hyderabad 500 016.
No. 7-1-58, Ameerpet,
Tel: +91-40-23735061, 23737251
Hyderabad 500 016.
Fax: +91-40- 2373 5152
Tel: +91-40-23735061, 23737251
E-mail: adityamsk@icraindia.com
Fax: +91-40- 2373 5152
E-mail: adityamsk@icraindia.com
PUNE
Mr. Sameer Mahajan
PUNE
Mobile:
9881300772
Mr.
Sameer
Mahajan
5A,
5th Floor,
Symphony,
Mobile:
9881300772
S. No.
210,
CTSSymphony,
3202,
5A,
5th
Floor,
Range
Shivajinagar,
S.
No. Hills
210,Road,
CTS 3202,
Pune-411
020
Range
Hills
Road, Shivajinagar,
Tel
: +91- 20Pune-411
02025561194,
25560195/196,
Tel : +91- 20- 25561194,
Fax
: +91- 20- 2553 9231
25560195/196,
E-mail:
sameer.mahajan@icraindia.com
Fax
: +9120- 2553 9231
E-mail: sameer.mahajan@icraindia.com
BANGALORE
Mr.
Jayanta Chatterjee
BANGALORE
Mobile:
9845022459
Mr. Jayanta
Chatterjee
'The
Millenia',
Tower B,
Mobile:
9845022459
Unit
No.
1004,
Floor,
'The Millenia', 10th
Tower
B,
Level
2, 12-14,
& 2,Floor,
Murphy Road,
Unit No.
1004, 110th
Bangalore
- 560 1008
Level 2, 12-14,
& 2, Murphy Road,
Tel:
+91-80-43326400,
Bangalore
- 560 008
Tel: +91-80-43326400,
Fax:
+91-80-43326409
Fax: +91-80-43326409
E-mail:
jayantac@icraindia.com
E-mail: jayantac@icraindia.com
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#8