DE INVERSION
Noviembre 2014
Agenda
Entorno Econmico Global
Entorno Econmico Amrica Latina
Proyectos de Inversin
Agenda
Entorno Econmico Global
Entorno Econmico Local Amrica Latina
Proyectos de Inversin
Economa Mundial
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.1
5.0
4.7
4.1
3.8
4.0
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.0
2.8
3.3
3.3
2.0
1.0
0.0
2015e
2014e
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0.0
Fuente: FMI
Economa Mundial
Un mundo tendiendo a normalizarse de a pocos
5.6
5.7
5.4
5.1
5.0
4.7
4.1
3.8
3.3
3.3
2014e
3.0
2.8
3.4
2013
3.0
3.8
3.7
2012
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Fuente: FMI
2015e
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0.0
2002
>
Economa Mundial
Economas avanzadas guan reactivacin mundial
10.0
3.2
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.1
2.8
9.0
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.4
8.2
7.5
7.3
7.0
1.0
8.6
7.8
8.0
1.8
6.3
6.2
5.8
6.0
0.1
0.0
5.0
-1.0
4.0
5.4
5.1
4.6
4.7
5.0
4.4
3.1
3.0
-2.0
2.0
-3.0
1.0
Economa Mundial
Desempeo diferenciado entre regiones y pases
2015e
2013
2014e
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2002
2015e
2013
2014e
2012
2011
0.0
2010
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2009
-3.4
-4.0
2003
2.0
EE.UU.
PMI Mundo
jun-14
Compuesto
China
Oct-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Euro Zona
Jun-14
Feb-14
Oct-13
Dec-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Feb-13
Oct-12
Dec-12
Aug-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Feb-12
Oct-11
Dec-11
42.0
Japn
jul-14
ago-14
sep-14
oct-14
jun-14
jul-14
ago-14
sep-14
oct-14
52.6
52.4
52.5
52.2
52.2
EE.UU.
55.3
57.1
59.0
56.6
59.0
Manufactura
55.4
55.5
55.1
54.8
53.6
China
51.0
51.7
51.1
51.1
50.8
Servicios
55.8
56.1
55.6
55.2
53.7
Euro Zona
51.8
51.8
50.7
50.3
50.6
Japn
51.5
50.5
52.2
51.7
52.4
PMI Manuf.
3.5
4.0
3.0
2.0
4.6
4.5
5.0
3.0
2.7
Estimados
3.0
3.0
2.9
1.8
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-2.1
-3.0
-4.0
1T13 2T13 3T13 4T13 1T14 2T14 3T14 4T14 1T15 2T15
600
450
300
150
0
-150
Prom. Payrolls
ltimo s 6me: 245k
-450
-750
Planillas (miles)
-300
-600
sep-07
ene-08
may-08
sep-08
ene-09
may-09
sep-09
ene-10
may-10
sep-10
ene-11
may-11
sep-11
ene-12
may-12
sep-12
ene-13
may-13
sep-13
ene-14
may-14
sep-14
6.0
-900
QE1
QE2
QE3
OFF
5.0
4.0
2.0
3.0
1.5
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
Inflacin total
Fuente: Bloomberg
Inflacin subyacente
Oct-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Oct-06
Apr-06
-1.0
Oct-05
0.0
Fuente: IIF
2.9%
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
sep-08
dic-08
mar-09
jun-09
sep-09
dic-09
mar-10
jun-10
sep-10
dic-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dic-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dic-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dic-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
-3.00
Fuente: Bloomberg
10.8
10.0
8.0
6.0
6.0
5.1
4.1
3.4
4.0
1.8
2.0
0.6
0.0
-0.5
-2.0
-0.5
-1.6
-2.2 -2.7
-2.7
-6.0
2T15
3T14
2T14
1T14
4T13
3T13
2T13
1T13
4T12
3T12
2T12
1T12
1T15
-7.3
-8.0
4T14
-4.0
10
11.0
70,000
10.3
9.6 9.89.7 9.5
9.0
11.9
9.1
Estados Unidos
9.1 8.9
60,000
7.9
7.6 7.4
7.9 7.7
7.8 7.7
7.5
7.4 7.5 7.3
7.0
50,000
40,000
China (7.0%)
China (6.0%)
China (5.0%)
30,000
5.0
20,000
3.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
jun-14
sep-14
dic-13
mar-14
jun-13
sep-13
dic-12
mar-13
jun-12
sep-12
dic-11
mar-12
sep-11
dic-10
jun-11
mar-11
jun-10
sep-10
dic-09
mar-10
sep-09
10,000
1.0
Fuente: Bloomberg
11
Agenda
Entorno Econmico Global
Entorno Econmico Amrica Latina
Proyectos de Inversin
6.6
2004-2013
6.0
5.5
2014-2018
4.8
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.0
3.5
2.6
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Colombia
Chile
Mxico
Per
7.0
2004-2013
6.0
5.9
2014-2018
5.0
3.7
4.0
2.8
3.0
2.0
1.4
1.0
0.3
0.0
Argentina
Brasil
Venezuela
Fuente: FMI
18
12
Jun-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09
-10.0
Fuente: Bloomberg
115
110
5.0-5.5
5.00
105
4.00
100
95
3.00
0.7
0.1
Laboral
Telecoms
0.2
2.5-3.0
90
2.00
85
80
1.00
sep-06
ene-07
may-07
sep-07
ene-08
may-08
sep-08
ene-09
may-09
sep-09
ene-10
may-10
sep-10
ene-11
may-11
sep-11
ene-12
may-12
sep-12
ene-13
may-13
sep-13
ene-14
may-14
sep-14
75
0.00
Crecimiento
potencial
actual
Fuente: Barclays
13
Financiera
Energtica
Crecimiento
potencial con
reformas
14
15
16
2.7%
3%
2%
17
jul-14
sep-14
mar-14
may-14
nov-13
ene-14
jul-13
sep-13
mar-13
Fuente: INEI
may-13
nov-12
ene-13
jul-12
sep-12
mar-12
may-12
nov-11
ene-12
0%
sep-11
1%
60.0
Optimista
70.0
Optimista
55.0
60.0
50.0
50.0
40.0
Pesimista
Pesimista
45.0
Fuente: BCRP
18
oct-14
jun-14
oct-13
feb-14
jun-13
oct-12
feb-13
jun-12
oct-11
feb-12
jun-11
oct-10
feb-11
jun-10
oct-09
feb-10
jun-09
40.0
oct-08
oct-14
jun-14
oct-13
feb-14
jun-13
oct-12
feb-13
jun-12
oct-11
feb-12
jun-11
oct-10
feb-11
jun-10
oct-09
feb-10
jun-09
oct-08
feb-09
20.0
feb-09
30.0
Sector
2012
2013
2014e
2015e
Agropecuario
6.0%
+5.9%
+1.4%
+0.9%
+2.5%
Pesca
0.7%
-32.2%
+18.1%
-2.2%
+10.0%
14.4%
+2.8%
+4.9%
-1.5%
+2.7%
Manufactura
16.5%
+1.5%
+6.0%
-1.0%
+4.2%
Construccin
5.1%
+15.8%
+8.9%
+1.9%
+5.5%
Comercio
10.2%
+7.2%
+5.9%
+4.6%
+5.5%
Servicios
37.1%
+7.4%
+6.4%
+5.8%
+6.2%
1.7%
+5.8%
+5.5%
+5.2%
+6.0%
8.3%
+6.9%
+4.8%
+0.9%
+2.0%
PBI
100.0%
+6.0%
+5.9%
+2.7%
+4.8%
25.2%
+0.1%
+4.9%
-0.7%
+3.1%
74.8%
+7.6%
+6.1%
+3.7%
+5.3%
Inflacin a 12 meses
5.00%
3.00%
2.00%
4.00%
n ov-14
feb-14
ag o-14
n ov-13
may-14
feb-13
ag o-13
n ov-12
may-13
feb-12
ag o-12
n ov-11
may-12
feb-11
ag o-11
n ov-10
may-11
feb-10
ag o-10
2.00%
n ov-09
0.00%
may-10
1.00%
3.00%
Fuente: BCRP
1.00%
Tasa de
Referencia (%)
0.00%
Tasa de
Encaje (%)
oct-09
ene-10
abr-10
jul-10
oct-10
ene-11
abr-11
jul-11
oct-11
ene-12
abr-12
jul-12
oct-12
ene-13
abr-13
jul-13
oct-13
ene-14
abr-14
jul-14
oct-14
7.00
IPC Total
IPC subyacente
18.00
16.00
6.00
14.00
5.00
12.00
4.00
10.00
8.00
3.00
6.00
2.00
19
nov-14
jul-14
mar-14
jul-13
nov-13
mar-13
jul-12
nov-12
jul-11
mar-12
mar-11
nov-11
jul-10
mar-10
Tasa Referencia
Fuente: BCRP
nov-10
nov-09
jul-09
mar-09
4.00
nov-08
1.00
2.00
3.1%
3.0%
2.0%
1.4%
1.3%
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-1.7% -1.9%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-3.2%
-3.8%
-5.0%
2.1%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.5%
-7.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e2015e
Fuente: BCRP y estimados de Intligo
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.3%
2.0%
0.9%
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-1.0%
-1.4%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014e
2015e
20
5.5%
21
22
Agenda
Entorno Econmico Global
Entorno Econmico Amrica Latina
Proyectos de Inversin
23
24
Inversin en Infraestructura
25
Proyectos ms relevantes
26
Conclusiones
>
>
>
>
>
27
Nuestras oficinas
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