Traffic Forecasts: Telephony

Provide a basis for decisions on investments in the network; should give

information about future demands for telecommunications.
Traffic forecast must be accurate as possible and should be derived from
present traffic figures which are as accurate as possible
Importance of these forecasts is increasing; market plan and the product plan
rely heavily on them.

Time aspect is very important since its only an estimate; network operators
therefore use forecast periods of different lengths
As a rule, the following activities are included:
Purpose and conditions defined
Traffic measurement data, data of population growth and
economic development, and outcome of earlier forecasts.
Requirements for data accuracy and the forecast period.

Data gathered is processed.

Forecasting methods

Forecasting method determines basic data to be used and, to some extent, the
outcome.
Three (3) groups of methods:

1.
2.
3.

trend methods;
statistical demand analysis; and
assessment methods.

Trend methods

Find main trend over a long or short period.

Best suited for objects with even growth and for short forecast periods.
If the development is exponential, the trend can be approximated as the mean
percentage growth during the period (similar to the calculation of compound
interest).

Example:
If the number of subscribers in an exchange area has increased by about 200 in the
past five years, then this increase marks the main trend. We can draw the conclusion
that in the next three-year period there will be 3 x 200 = 600 new subscribers in the
area.

Figure A trend method

Statistical demand analysis

Seeks to map out those factors which underlie the earlier development.
Changes that can be expected during the forecasting period are then collated.

Example:

A town may be dominated by one big company that has recruited about 100 people
annually in the last few years. If this need for recruiting continues to exist, one may
reckon that the growth ascribable to the company will keep on at the same rate.
With these background factors as a basis, the network operator creates mathematical
models describing the current conditions. The relationships are then used for
forecasting.
Basic data is obtained from statistics processed by labour market authorities, county
or city administrative boards and other bodies.
Assessment methods

Use of assessment methods requires that a forecast should be based on

previous experience or collected information.
Basic data is not systematically analysed. These models can be used when
preconditions for trend projection or statistical demand analysis are lacking.
One variant is known as the analogy method: it is assumed that situations or
objects with similar preconditions will develop similarly.