Contact:

Tom Swiss
(773) 485-9477
February 2, 2015

38th Ward: Sposato has Huge Lead

Good Chance Sposato Can Win Outright

CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll for Aldertrack on Monday, February 2, 2015 for
38th Ward Alderman with 485 respondents.
Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters.
Nicholas Sposato

225

46.4%

Jerry Paszek

42

8.7%

Heather Sattler

35

7.2%

Michael Duda

27

5.6%

Tom Caravette

22

4.5%

Carmen Hernandez

19

3.9%

0.6%

112

23.1%

Belinda Cadiz
Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 4.54% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS
Despite being re-mapped into the 38th ward, Nicholas Sposato has a huge lead against 6 other
opponents. With Sposato at 46% and 23% still undecided, there is a good chance he can avoid a runoff
and win outright on February 24, 2015. If this race does go to a runoff, 5 of the next candidates are
closely bunched and it is too close to call the runner-up.
Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further
development in this race.
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 1



METHODOLOGY
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections,
likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections.

CROSSTABS
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

226
259

46.6%
53.4%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 - 64
Age 65 plus

60
102
172
151

12.4%
21.0%
35.5%
31.1%

Respondents by Zipcode
60630 Count
60634 Count
60641 Count
60656 Count

48
355
43
39

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 2