Democrats will hold on to the Senatemoney, history, and

voter targeting and turnout favor the Democrat incumbents

Mark Barabak (journalist) LOS ANGELES TIMES, September 29, 2014
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-2014-election-20140929story.html#page=1
Just over a month before the midterm election, control of the U.S. Senate remains surprisingly up for grabs as
Democrats parlay a financial edge and other advantages to battle history and a strong anti-Obama tide.

The GOP is almost certain to win open-seat

contests in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, getting them halfway to the
six seats needed to win a majority and gain control. But the party's candidates have
yet to put away any of the 10 or so most competitive Senate races, buoying
Democratic hopes they can hang on to at least one chamber of Congress despite what
Republicans still enjoy the more secure position.

appeared, at the start of this election year, to be long odds. In Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska, where President
Obama's approval ratings are particularly low, Democratic incumbents have kept their uphill races within striking
distance. It helps that the candidates Mary L. Landrieu, Mark Pryor and Mark Begich come from prominent
political families, making them familiar brand names in their respective states. But even in North Carolina, first-term
Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, a prime Republican target, has clung to a small but consistent lead in recent voter

Part of the reason is money. Democrats, unexpectedly, have had more of it

this year than Republicans. And part of it is mechanics allocating resources,
targeting voters, getting them to the polls which national Democrats have
excelled at over the last decade. In that time, Democrats have defeated 12 sitting
Republican senators. Republicans have ousted just three Democratic incumbents,
surveys.

two of them in the last midterm election under Obama, in 2010. Historically, the midterm vote has been a
referendum on the president, and this one appears to be no exception. There are three typical outcomes for the
party in the White House, said Charlie Cook, a longtime nonpartisan campaign analyst: "Bad; really bad; and really,
really bad." To a great extent Democrats are simply fighting for the least bad result, which would be clinging to the
Senate by the narrowest of margins. (Republicans are expected to modestly pad their majority in the House and
could lose a handful of governor's seats.) The GOP started the year with a distinct advantage in the Senate fight.
Democrats have been forced to defend far more seats, thanks to their gains when Obama was elected in 2008, and
a number of retirements in conservative-leaning states. Of the most competitive races, all but a handful are in
places that Obama lost in 2012, several by landslide margins. Also working in favor of Republicans are the election's
broad themes the appropriate size and scope of government, Obama's leadership and competence which
match those of 2010, a banner year for the GOP. Our candidates are asking theirs, 'Where are you on minimum
wage? Where are you on equal pay [for women]? Where are you on college tuition?' - Sen. Charles E. Schumer of
New York, one of the Democratic Party's top political strategists Democrats have tried to shift the focus from a
debate over big government, embodied by the unpopular national healthcare law, to the merits of popular
programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, and issues that are especially resonant to minorities, young people
and single women. All are Democratic-leaning voter groups that tend to sit out midterm elections. "Our candidates
are asking theirs, 'Where are you on minimum wage? Where are you on equal pay [for women]? Where are you on
college tuition?'" said Sen. Charles E. Schumer of New York, one of the Democratic Party's top political strategists.
That tactic one party trying to nationalize the election, the other trying to make contests more localized and
issue-specific is also typical of midterm elections. Another time-honored tradition is candidates distancing
themselves from the unpopular president of their own party; some Democrats this year have gone so far as to
criticize Obama in their TV advertising. "I disagree with him on guns, coal" and the Environmental Protection
Agency, says a skeet-shooting Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky's Democratic secretary of state, who faces
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in a fiercely fought contest. Begich, locked in a tough race with former GOP
Atty. Gen. Dan Sullivan, cited several differences with Obama in a recent TV spot, over taxes, the environment and
defense spending. "True Alaska," read the logo opening Begich's advertisement. What is notable this year is
Democrats' considerable financial advantage, which will not necessarily determine control of the Senate but, at the
least, has kept many contests close heading into the final five weeks of the campaign. The Democrats' Senate
campaign committee raised $111 million through August, nearly $30 million more than the Republican committee,

In the 10 most competitive Senate races,

pro-Democratic forces have outspent their Republican counterparts $80 million to
$73 million through Friday, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics, an organization that
and outside groups have enhanced the party's cash lead.

Crucially, the Democrats have used their money edge to

reserve far more TV air time than Republicans in the campaign's final stretch , meaning
tracks campaign spending.

even if the GOP and its allies catch up financially they will have to pay much higher last-minute rates. Writing in the
Wall Street Journal this month, Republican strategist Karl Rove lamented the financial disparity in a commentary
that amounted to a thinly veiled plea for donors to open their checkbooks. "The midterm environment is terrible for
Democrats," Rove wrote, "yet each passing day provides evidence as to why a GOP Senate majority is still in
doubt." (Many Republican donors have sat on their wallets out of frustration with a Rove-affiliated "super PAC" and
other groups that collected tens of millions of dollars in 2012 and failed to elect Mitt Romney president or deliver a

Scott Reed, a Republican strategist for the U.S. Chamber of

Commerce, remains sanguine. "The sand continues to feel like it's shifting our way," he said, though he also
sounded a cautionary note: "Experience shows it's not easy defeating incumbent
Democratic U.S. senators." Whatever happens Nov. 4, it is likely that today's toss-up races will break
Republican Senate.)

decisively in favor of one party. "It doesn't have to be a wave, or even a strong wind," said Cook, the independent
campaign analyst. "Just a whiff can make races that are fundamentally tied fall almost entirely in the same
direction." Even then control of the Senate may not be decided. Under their election rules, the contests in Louisiana
and Georgia could push into December and January, respectively, if no candidate wins more than 50% in November.

Despite trends that appear to push the Republicans ahead, the

Democrats are receiving more positive approval from voters
Mara Liasson (staff) NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO, October 3, 2014
http://www.npr.org/2014/10/03/353315549/npr-poll-senate-battleground-tiltsrepublican-but-still-anybodys-game
With fewer than five weeks until election day, the political landscape continues to be tilted against
President Obama and his party. The battle for control of the Senate the biggest prize this year

the findings of NPR's latest bipartisan

poll of likely voters, conducted by Republican Whit Ayres of Resurgent
Republic and Democrat Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps . The poll
concentrated on the Senate battleground the 12 states that will determine control of
remains close and could tip either way. Those are

the Senate next year. It found an electorate where nobody likes anybody. The president, the
Republicans and the Democrats were viewed with equal disgust their favorability ratings all in the
low 40s. This is a disgruntled group of voters, says Ayres, which this year happens to be good news for
his party. "The direction of the country is overwhelmingly perceived to be in the wrong direction.
Barack Obama is exceedingly unpopular in the Senate battlegrounds," he says. "The generic party

the playing field

still tilts strongly to Republicans in these 12 battleground states ." Democrat
Greenberg doesn't try to sugarcoat the outlook for his party. But he points out that although not
that much has changed since we last polled the Senate battleground in
June, the president is a little more popular today, mostly because the
public supports his military action against ISIS . "The mood is bleak, the president's not
popular," Greenberg says, "but it's not entirely stable. That is, we're looking at a president
that is slightly improved. ... The Democratic candidates, incumbents, are a
net positive in their own personal favorability and their job approval . And
so they're clearly withstanding the trend that we're talking about ." There's
preference for a Senate candidate favors the Republicans by three points. So

another phenomenon this year that shows up in the poll. In the battleground, Democrats and
Republicans are equally energized, highly likely to vote, and they are not up for grabs. Big majorities of
both parties say their minds are made up. "But these elections are still within a point or two, and so
despite this consolidation, the campaigns matter and can still impact both on preference and on
turnout," Greenberg says. Ayres says he agrees. "Democrats are locked in, the Republicans are locked
in, and that's why it's so important the independents prefer a generic Republican by 53 percent to 37
percent 16-point preference," he says. Rebecca Janes from Arkansas describes herself as an
independent and a home-schooler mom. She plans to vote for Republican Rep. Tom Cotton for Senate.
She says she wants to send a message to Obama. "I will try to check and balance our current
administration at every point I am able to with my vote," she says. Janes says Obamacare is her most
important issue, and across party lines Obamacare is still among the top three issues for voters this

year. Jobs and the economy are No. 1, of course. But the poll also shows that Democrats have been
successful at driving an agenda aimed at their top targets female voters. Democrats in our poll rank
a candidate's position on women and women's issues just behind the economy. Gwen Clements, a
registered Democrat and out-of-work dental assistant from Kentucky, plans to vote for Alison
Lundergan Grimes for Senate. Or rather, she plans to vote against the incumbent Republican Mitch
McConnell. "For one, I'm a woman," she says. "And he has voted against everything for women the
fair pay, the violence." Republicans need to pick up six Senate seats to win control, and the NPR poll
shows the 12 battleground Senate races continue to tilt to the right. But there's no sign yet that a big
electoral tsunami is coming, the way it did to help Democrats in 2006 or Republicans in 2010. "The
definition of a wave is when one party wins many seats by one or two percentage points, where every
close race goes their way," Ayres says. "The overall environment is very promising for Republicans
now, but there's not yet evidence of a wave comparable to 2006 or 2010. But one could easily develop.
It's like on a hot, muggy summer day, you know the environment is right for thunderstorms even if

says in
election after election, "we've watched ... Republicans expecting to win
control at the Senate, and it's broken at the end for the Democrats,
winning almost all the competitive Senate races. That could happen here
too. Republican party is very unpopular, president's not very popular, I recognize. Both are at work,
none are yet visible on radar, but you'd better keep an eye out for them." Greenberg

but it could tilt one way or the other." And that's the suspense of this election. History and the number

Republicans have fallen

short of expectations in the past two cycles . This year, things look very good for a
of red states voting tells us that the GOP should win the Senate. But

Republican Senate takeover, but the battleground races are still too close to call to make that
guarantee.

The new jobs report is boosting Democrat chances of winning

in the mid-terms
Mark Trumbull (staff writer) CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, October 3, 2014
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2014/1003/Unemploymentdrops-below-6-percent-Can-it-help-Democrats
A better-than-expected report on the US job market Friday could give a
modest to lift to struggling Democrats, one month before an election that could flip
control of the Senate to Republicans. The economy created a robust 248,000 jobs in
September and the official unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent
the month before, the Labor Department reported. Thats welcome news for US
workers, and in political terms, such signs of economic improvement tend to buoy
the party that controls the White House. But despite a string of solid job reports in recent months,
WASHINGTON

the state of the economy is, at best, providing modest support to Democrats in key races. Far from assuring that
Democrats can retain their narrow control of the Senate, the improving job market is simply helping them to stay in

President Obama, seeking to help his party, is doing his best to

capitalize on the job markets improvement. When I took office, businesses were laying off
the election game.

800,000 Americans a month. Today, our businesses are hiring 200,000 Americans a month, Mr. Obama said
Thursday, in a speech at Northwestern University near Chicago. A political challenge, however, is that the economy
still isnt nearly as strong as Americans would like and the presidents popularity is also suffering from other
factors like handling of foreign policy that have nothing to do with the economy. Although unemployment has
fallen sharply from its post-recession high of about 10 percent, the total share of Americans who have jobs has
recovered only modestly to 59 percent of adults, down from about 63 percent just before the recession. Part of
that reflects the demographics of the baby boom, as more Americans are hitting retirement age. But it also reflects
an economy where many potential workers arent optimistic enough to even look for work. Those on the sidelines
arent counted in the official unemployment rate. Wage growth has also been disappointing, barely keeping pace
with inflation. The president acknowledged the challenge in his speech. He said its indisputable that millions of
Americans dont yet feel enough of the benefits of a growing economy where it matters most and that's in their
own lives. And the positive tone of the September jobs report (many economists didnt expect the unemployment
rate to drop below 6 percent), doesnt mean the economy is about to shift into high gear. Members of the National
Association for Business Economics, in a new survey, expect the annualized pace of economic growth to come in at

3 percent for the remainder of 2014 and 2.9 percent for 2015, after notching 3.1 percent last year. All that hints at
why its hard for Democrats to run as the party of economic recovery. That doesnt mean gains in the job market are

Democratic incumbents like Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New

Hampshire and Sen. Kay Hagan in North Carolina would probably be having a
tougher time if it werent for lower-than-average unemployment (4.4 percent in New
Hampshire as of August) or significant improvement (unemployment has fallen in North Carolina from 8.8
percent at the start of 2013 to 6.8 percent in August). In both those states, the Democrats have an
edge in recent polls. The same dynamics also may be supporting Democrats who
are behind in the polls helping to keep their hopes alive in places like Arkansas,
even though the political terrain favors Republicans . But, as important as the economy is its
meaningless for the election, though.

ranked by Americans at the top of their priority list other themes, from national security to social issues, are also
taking a high profile in tight races. Republican Joni Ernst has taken the lead against Democrat Bruce Braley for
Iowas open Senate seat, for example, even though unemployment there is just 4.5 percent and the seat has been
held until now by Democrat Tom Harkin.

Democrats can retain the Senate by focusing on local matters,

including ocean issues
David Lightman (Washington bureau) MCCLATCHY NEWS, October 3, 2014
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/10/03/242044_theyd-have-to-run-thetable-but.html?sp=/99/104/463/&rh=1
Despite being written off already, the Democrats could retain control of
the Senate this November if they can steer the debate to local matters, generate
an epic turnout, paint Republicans as dangerously extreme . And keep President Barack
WASHINGTON

Obama away. Analysts already rate the chances as excellent that Democrats will lose the majority control, with
Republicans already safely ahead in three states and needing just three more. The prospects for the Democrats
remain uphill. Divine intervention, joked Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics,
assessing how Democrats retain a majority. Republicans are well ahead and favored to win Democratic-held seats in
Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota while having a decent chance of replacing Democrats in Arkansas, Alaska,
New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, Louisiana and Colorado. Republican-held seats in Georgia, Kansas and
Kentucky are possible Democratic pickups. A Democratic victory could look like this: They lose the three states
where theyre behind by double digits. But they hold a few of the other vulnerable seats, such as North Carolina and
New Hampshire, where their candidates are leading, or Colorado or Iowa, both close. And they take a Republican

Democrats
do stand to benefit from the sudden emphasis on foreign policy, as Obamas
approval numbers are up slightly, and perhaps from a recovering economy. A
McClatchy-Marist poll found that one in three people now see things moving in the
right direction, and while still a low number that could be ominous for Democrats, its up from
28 percent in August. Democrats now control 55 of the Senates 100 seats. Maintaining that control remains
seat or two, such as Georgia or Kansas. Theyd end up with a smaller majority, but still in control.

a tough task, but successfully following four rules could swing things their way: Rule One: Stress your history as a

The ultimate technique is to localize,

said independent Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli. Control the message . Thats why
neighbor and native who happens to work in Washington.

endangered Democrats such as Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado talk about flood control. Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas

and Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska

unveiled a plan to bolster the Arctic economy. The blueprint includes strengthening
the Coast Guard, which Begich, as chairman of a Senate Coast Guard
subcommittee, is positioned to influence. Rule Two: Stay away from Obama, whose approval
appears in ads with his father, once a popular governor and senator,

numbers in most of the competitive Senate states are dismal. Trouble is, the Senate Democrat who opposed Obama
the most last year was Pryor, and even he backed the president more than 90 percent of the time. For good or evil,
youre stuck with the president of your own party, said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public
Opinion in New York. Vulnerable Democrats are trying hard to come unglued from Obama. As the president visited

North Carolina in August to address the American Legion, the states Democratic senator, Kay Hagan, criticized the
administrations veterans policies, telling the group, I have told the president that promises alone arent going to
get it done. Republicans wont let Hagan, battling with Republican Thom Tillis, forget her Obama ties. Tillis is trying
to bring the Islamic State crisis into the picture with an ad charging, While ISIS grew, Obama kept waiting, and Kay
Hagan kept quiet. Hagan, Tillis said, routinely missed Senate Armed Services Committee hearings on global
threats. Hagan countered shes chaired three closed hearings dealing with terrorist threats. In Louisiana, Sen. Mary
Landrieu last year didnt attend an Obama event in New Orleans, citing another obligation in the state. She began
running ads months ago insisting the administrations oil and gas policies were wrong and has criticized Obama for
his plans to trim carbon dioxide emissions. Rule Three: Demonize Republicans, both individually and collectively.
Democrats need African-American voters in swing states, and they warn that Republican ascendancy will make our
lives miserable for the next two years, said Congressional Black Caucus Chairwoman Marcia Fudge, D-Ohio. She
predicted Republican gains would accelerate efforts to impeach Obama and jeopardize many civil rights protections.
Unmarried women, who voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2012, are another favorite Democratic target. All year,
the partys played to that constituency by citing Republican reluctance to increase the minimum wage, as well as
the GOPs widespread opposition to abortion and the Affordable Care Act, which provides new protections against
gender discrimination. The economic message is really, really powerful. Unmarried women want candidates who
know what its like to walk in their shoes, said Page Gardner, president of the nonpartisan Voter Participation
Center, an advocacy group promoting turnout among unmarried women. Rule Four: Turn out supporters like crazy.
The Democrats Senate campaign committee, in partnership with local races and parties, expects to spend $60
million getting out the vote in about 10 competitive states. Theyre hiring about 4,000 people to answer issue and
candidate questions, pass out literature, help voters with absentee or early ballots and provide rides to the polls.
Republicans already have spent $100 million, mostly on Senate races, in 13 states. Party spokeswoman Kirsten
Kukowski called the effort an insurgent campaign against incumbent Democrats who are well funded, have famous
last names and have had years of infrastructure but you wouldnt know it by looking at the polls. The Republican
plan includes recruiting precinct captains who get to know local voters, as well as more reliance on technology. Will
following the rules keep the Senate under Democratic control? Not out of the question, said the analysts. Its hard,
Miringoff said. But doable.