Contract Success Probability Tree Analysis

0.
5
Awarded contract
250000
90000
Prepare proposal
-50000
20000
0.5
Not awarded contract
20000
Do not prepare proposal

0
-50000
Use mechanical method

-120000
80000
0.5
Electronic success
Try electronic method
-50000
0.5
Electronic failure
90000
-120000
150000
30000
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
-80000
0
84000
120000
0.3
Magnetic failure
-120000
80000
150000
30000
120000
-50000
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
Prob
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pred
Kind
0D
0E
0T
1D
1T
3T
3E
3E
6T
6T
7T
7T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
S3
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
Mark
0.5
Awarded contract
$250,000
$90,000
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
$20,000
0.5
$20,000
$0

$0
$0
-$50,000

-$120,000
$80,000
0.5
Electronic success
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
$90,000
-$120,000
$150,000
$30,000
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
$84,000
-$120,000
$120,000
$0
$80,000
$150,000
$30,000
$120,000
$0
-$50,000
$0
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
Prob
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pred
Kind
0D
0E
0T
1D
1T
3T
3E
3E
6T
6T
7T
7T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
S3
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
Mark
0.5
Awarded contract
$250,000
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
0.5
$0

$0

-$120,000
0.5
Electronic success
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
1
$0
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
1
$0
$80,000
$150,000

$30,000
-$120,000
$120,000

$0
-$120,000
-$50,000
$0
ID
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Name
TreePlan
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0T
1D
1T
3T
3E
3E
6T
6D
7T
7D
9T
11 T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
1
0
1
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
12
0
13
0
0
S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
12
22
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
21
21
0.5
Awarded contract
$250,000
$80,000
0.41335
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
$1,337
0.00887
0.5
$1,337
0.00887
$0

$0
$0
0.00000
-$50,000
-0.39561

-$120,000
$80,000
0.41335
0.5
Electronic success
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
$78,307
0.40669
-$120,000
$150,000
0.63212
$30,000
0.18127
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
$73,035
0.38547
-$120,000
$120,000
0.55067
$0
0.00000
Label in cell on left is the

defined name of cell on right.
$80,000
RT
$150,000
$30,000
$120,000
$0
-$50,000
$0
$150,000
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
Prob
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pred
Kind
0D
0E
0T
1D
1T
3T
3E
3E
6T
6T
7T
7T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
S3
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
Mark
0.5
Awarded contract
$250,000
$80,000
0.78714
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
$1,337
0.39357
0.5
$1,337
0.39357
$0

$0
$0
0.38494
-$50,000
0.00000

-$120,000
$80,000
0.78714
0.5
Electronic success
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
$78,307
0.78066
-$120,000
$150,000
1.00000
$30,000
0.56131
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
$73,035
0.76000
-$120,000
$120,000
0.92075
$0
0.38494
Label in cell on left is the

defined name of cell on right.
$80,000
RT
$150,000
Low
High
-$50,000
$150,000
$150,000
A
B
$30,000
$120,000
$0
-$50,000
$0
1.357952354
0.97301538
U(Low) = 0.0
U(High) = 1.0
Value
-$50,000
-$45,000
-$40,000
-$35,000
-$30,000
-$25,000
-$20,000
-$15,000
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
$90,000
$95,000
$100,000
$105,000
$110,000
$115,000
$120,000
$125,000
$130,000
$135,000
$140,000
$145,000
Risk Utility
0.00000
0.04452
0.08758
0.12923
0.16951
0.20847
0.24616
0.28260
0.31786
0.35196
0.38494
0.41684
0.44769
0.47753
0.50640
0.53431
0.56131
0.58743
0.61269
0.63712
0.66076
0.68361
0.70572
0.72710
0.74779
0.76779
0.78714
0.80585
0.82395
0.84146
0.85839
0.87477
0.89061
0.90593
0.92075
0.93508
0.94894
0.96235
0.97532
0.98787
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
Utility or Expected Utili
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-$50,000
$150,000
1.00000
DriveTek Risk Utility Function

1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
Utility or Expected Utility, U(x)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-$50,000
$0
$50,000
Value or Certain Equivalent, x
$100,000
nction
uivalent, x
$100,000
$150,000
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
Prob
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pred
Kind
0D
0E
0T
1D
1T
3T
3E
3E
6T
6T
7T
7T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
S3
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
Mark
TreePlan for Excel
1.85
Decision Tree Software

Add-In for Microsoft Windows Excel 2007-2013
and for Macintosh Excel 2011
TreePlan helps you build and modify decision tree diagrams
in Excel worksheets. TreePlan automatically puts formulas
on your worksheet for evaluating these trees.
To build a new decision tree, first create a new worksheet.
Then start TreePlan in one of two ways:
Windows Excel 2007, 2010, & 2013
Add-Ins > TreePlan Decision Tree, or Ctrl+Shift+T
Macintosh Excel 2011
Tools > TreePlan Decision Tree, or Option+Cmd+T
When the TreePlan...New dialog box appears, choose
New Tree. TreePlan builds a tree diagram with an initial
decision node and two branches. The tree diagram begins
with the upper left corner of the diagram near the active
cell at the time New... is chosen. TreePlan assigns the
name TreeDiagram to the range of the tree diagram and
sets Excel's Print_Area equal to TreeDiagram.
To change the structure of the tree diagram, select a node,
start TreePlan, and choose commands from a TreePlan
dialog box. Do not use Excel's commands to modify
the tree structure or any other cells or graphic objects in
the tree diagram. Only use TreePlan.
On the left side of each branch of the tree diagram, there is
a name field above the branch line and a partial-cash-flow
value field below the line. On the left side of event
branches, there is also a probability field above the name
field. Decision nodes also have a number in them indicating
the optimal branch.
On the right side of each branch of the tree diagram, there
is a rollback Expected Value field below the line near
each node. TreePlan automatically puts the rollback EV
formula into this cell: maximum of successor EVs at a

decision node, and expected value of successor EVs at an
event node.
To the right of the terminal nodes, there is an endpoint
value field that sums all of the partial cashflows in the tree.
Internally, TreePlan uses the TreeData range, near cell
GV1000, to construct the TreeDiagram.
CAUTION: Do not insert or delete rows or columns in the
TreeDiagram or TreeData ranges. Modify the tree diagram
only by using TreePlan's menu options.
TREEPLAN...DECISION and
TREEPLAN...EVENT dialog boxes
Add branch
Adds a single branch after the selected node .
(No more than 5 branches are allowed.)
Copy subtree
Copies the selected node and all its successors to the
TreePlan clipboard.
Insert decision
Inserts a decision node and single branch before the
selected node.
Insert event
Inserts an event node and single branch before the
selected node.
Change to decision
Changes the selected event node to a decision node and
erases the probability fields from the event branches.
Change to event
Changes the selected decision node to an event node.
Shorten tree
Removes the selected node and its single successor
branch.
Change to terminal
Changes the selected node to a terminal node. All
successor branches are erased.
Remove branch
Erases the selected node, the previous branch, and any
successor branches and nodes.
TREEPLAN...TERMINAL dialog box

Change to decision node
Changes the selected terminal node to a decision node
with one to five successor branches.
Change to event node
Changes the selected terminal node to an event node
with one to five successor branches.
Paste subtree
Pastes the subtree onto the selected terminal node from
the TreePlan clipboard.
Remove previous branch
Erases the selected terminal node and the previous
branch.
TREEPLAN...SELECT dialog box

Cells
To select a set of nonadjacent cells for subsequent
formatting, select the appropriate option button.
Objects
To select all objects, choose Select Special from the
Formula menu, and select the Objects option button.
Columns
To select a set of nonadjacent columns for subsequent
formatting, select the appropriate option button.
TREEPLAN...OPTIONS dialog box

Certainty Equivalents
The default is to rollback the tree using expected values.
If you chose to use exponential utilities, TreePlan will
compute utilities and certainty equivalents at each node.
For the Maximize option, the rollback formulas are
U=A-B*EXP(-X/RT) and X=-LN((A-U)/B)*RT, and for the
Minimize option, U=A-B*EXP(X/RT) and
X=LN((A-U)/B)*RT.
NOTE: TreePlan uses the name RT to represent the
risk tolerance parameter of the exponential utility
function; the names A and B determine scaling.
If the names A, B, and RT don't exist, they are initially
defined as A=1, B=1, and RT=999999999999. The
name UseExpUtility is a flag indicating whether to use
exponential utilities or expected values.
Decision Node EV/CE Choices
The default is to Maximize profits. If you choose to
Minimize costs instead, the cash flows are interpreted
as costs, and decisions are made by choosing the
minimum expected value/CE rather than the maximum.
TreePlan uses the name MinimizeCosts as a flag
indicating whether to maximize profits or minimize
costs.
Title License Agreement for TreePlan, SensIt, and SimVoi
Introduction Carefully read the following license agreement. This is a
contract. By downloading, accepting delivery of, installing, or using any

part of the Software, licensee agrees to be bound by all terms and
conditions of this license.
Definitions The software product, Software, means the Pro, Student,
or Trial version of TreePlan, SensIt, or SimVoi, including the Excel add-in

files, associated example files, and electronic documentation files, and
also any updates or modifications of the foregoing provided by TreePlan
Software.
The licensor, TreePlan Software or We or Us or Our, means Mike
Middleton or Michael R. Middleton, doing business as TreePlan Software,
a sole proprietorship, located at 2105 Buchanan Street, #1, San
Francisco, CA 94115 USA.
The licensee, You or Your, means the individual person or a single
organizational entity that is being licensed to use the Software.
This license agreement, Agreement, means this legal and binding
agreement between you and TreePlan Software for the Software you are
about to download, install, or use.
"Use" of the Software means the use of any of the Software functions to
define, solve, analyze, or obtain results for a user-defined model.
Ownership The Software is owned and copyrighted by TreePlan
Software. Your license confers no title or ownership in the Software and

should not be construed as a sale of any right in the Software. We
remain the sole owner of all right, title, and interest in the Software and
related explanatory written and electronic materials. You acknowledge
that no title to the intellectual property in the Software is transferred to
you by the license. You further acknowledge that title and full ownership
rights to the Software will remain the exclusive property of TreePlan
Software and that you will not acquire any rights to the Software except
as expressly set forth in this license.
Copyright The Software is protected by United States copyright laws
and international treaty provisions.
Pro License Upon purchase or receipt of a Pro license, you may install
and use the Pro version of the Software for single individual use on
multiple computers, or you may install the Pro version on a single
computer for shared use, but not both.
Student License The Student license is only for instructional use by
students and instructors, and the Software may not be used for
commercial purposes. Upon purchase or receipt of a Student license,
you may install and use the Student version of the Software for single
individual use on multiple computers, or you may install the Student
version on a single computer for shared use, but not both.
Trial License TreePlan Software grants you the right to install and use
the Trial version of the Software free of charge for single individual use
on one computer for no longer than thirty days, after which you must
delete all of the Software files from your computer. During the Trial
period the Software is licensed only for evaluation and may not be used
for commercial, instructional, or other production purposes.
Volume Licenses For a volume purchase of Pro or Student licenses for a
group of individual users, the primary purchaser may duplicate and

distribute the corresponding version of the Software to those licensed
users by disk, secure network, secure web site, or email attachment. For
any method of distribution, the Software must be accessible only to
people who have a license.
For a volume purchase of Pro or Student licenses for shared use on a
group of computers, each computer must have its own license,
regardless of whether the Software is used at different times or
concurrently. The Software may be installed on each licensed computer
or on a network, provided there is a license for each computer that will
access the Software through the network.
For a volume purchase, TreePlan Software provides support only to the
primary purchaser or to another person designated by the purchaser.
Backup Copy You may copy the Software for backup and archival
purposes, provided that the original and each copy is kept in your
possession and is not available to others.
Accessibility You may not place the Software onto a server so that it is
accessible via a public network such as the Internet.
License Transfer You may not sublicense, sell, lease, rent, assign or
otherwise transfer the license rights granted herein without the prior
written consent of TreePlan Software.
Modifications You may not modify or adapt the Software or merge it
into another program.
Reverse Engineering You may not reverse engineer, disassemble,
decompile, or make any attempt to discover the source code of the

Software.
Sublicensing You may not sublicense, rent, lease, or lend any portion of
the Software and related explanatory written and electronic materials.
Limited Warranty We warrant that for a period of 90 days after delivery
of this copy of the Software to you the Software will perform in

substantial accordance with the related explanatory materials.
To the extent permitted by applicable law, the foregoing limited
warranty is in lieu of all other warranties or conditions, express or
implied, and we disclaim any and all implied warranties or conditions,
including any implied warranty of title, non-infringement,
merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose, regardless of whether
we know or had reason to know of your particular needs.
No employee, agent, dealer, reseller, or distributor of ours is authorized
to modify this limited warranty nor to make any additional warranties.
Some states do not allow the limitation or exclusion of liability for
incidental or consequential damages, so the above limitation may not
apply to you.
Limited Remedy Our entire liability and your exclusive remedy for
breach of the foregoing warranty shall be, at our option, to either return
the price you paid or replace the Software file that does not meet the
foregoing warranty.
In no event will we be liable to you for any damages, including any lost
profits, lost savings, or other incidental or consequential damages
arising from the use or the inability to use the Software (even if we or an
authorized dealer, reseller, or distributor has been advised of the
possibility of these damages), or for any claim by any other party.
Some states do not allow the limitation or exclusion of liability for
incidental or consequential damages, so the above limitation may not
apply to you.
Termination This license agreement takes effect upon your use of the
Software and remains effective until terminated. You may terminate it at

any time by destroying all copies of the Software and related
explanatory materials in your possession. It will also automatically
terminate if you fail to comply with any term or condition of this license
agreement. You agree on termination of this license to destroy all copies
of the Software and related explanatory materials in your possession.
Confidentiality The Software contains trade secrets and proprietary
know-how that belong to us and it is being made available to you in

strict confidence. Any use or disclosure of the Software, or of its
algorithms, protocols or interfaces, other than in strict accordance with
this license agreement, may be actionable as a violation of our trade
secret rights.
General Provisions This written license agreement is the exclusive
agreement between you and us concerning the Software and related

explanatory materials and supersedes any prior purchase order,
communication, advertising or representation concerning the Software.
This license agreement may be modified only by a writing signed by you
and us.
In the event of litigation between you and us concerning the Software or
related explanatory materials, the prevailing party in the litigation will
be entitled to recover attorney fees and expenses from the other party.
This license agreement is governed by the laws of the State of
California.
You agree that the Software will not be shipped, transferred or exported
into any country or used in any manner prohibited by the United States
Export Administration Act or any other export laws, restrictions or
regulations.

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0.

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Try magnetic method

Use mechanical method

Use mechanical method

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Label in cell on left is the

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Label in cell on left is the

DriveTek Risk Utility Function

TreePlan for Excel

Decision Tree Software

formula into this cell: maximum of successor EVs at a

TREEPLAN...TERMINAL dialog box

TREEPLAN...SELECT dialog box

TREEPLAN...OPTIONS dialog box

Title License Agreement for TreePlan, SensIt, and SimVoi

Introduction Carefully read the following license agreement. This is a

contract. By downloading, accepting delivery of, installing, or using any

Definitions The software product, Software, means the Pro, Student,

or Trial version of TreePlan, SensIt, or SimVoi, including the Excel add-in

Ownership The Software is owned and copyrighted by TreePlan

Software. Your license confers no title or ownership in the Software and

Copyright The Software is protected by United States copyright laws

and international treaty provisions.

Student License The Student license is only for instructional use by

Volume Licenses For a volume purchase of Pro or Student licenses for a

group of individual users, the primary purchaser may duplicate and

accessible via a public network such as the Internet.

Modifications You may not modify or adapt the Software or merge it

into another program.

Reverse Engineering You may not reverse engineer, disassemble,

decompile, or make any attempt to discover the source code of the

the Software and related explanatory written and electronic materials.

Limited Warranty We warrant that for a period of 90 days after delivery

of this copy of the Software to you the Software will perform in

Software and remains effective until terminated. You may terminate it at

Confidentiality The Software contains trade secrets and proprietary

know-how that belong to us and it is being made available to you in

agreement between you and us concerning the Software and related

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