Abstract
Developing environmental sites as tourist destinations has its boons and
banes. On the one hand, developing these places would generate income or
revenue for the local government and provide jobs for the people. Also, it will
encourage more people to go out to enjoy the great outdoors and appreciate nature
a little more. Eco-tourism has been seeing a steady growth in the industry in these
past few years and has been benefitting from it ever since. On the other hand,
overdevelopment and lack of proper management would endanger the very thing
eco-tourism aims for, the protection and conservation of the environment.
Haphazard decisions made for the sake of developments may produce
unintended consequences. The model will simulate the state of the environment in
Palawan in order establish a relationship between developing sites for eco-tourism
and its effect on the environment.
Introduction
Being an archipelago, the Philippines have been blessed with vast natural
resources and wonderful sites. Palawan is one of the well-known and most visited tourist
destinations in the country. It prides itself with its natural beauty spread around its 1,768
islands and islets. Palawan covers a total land area of 1,489,655 hectares and is
subdivided into 23 municipalities and one city. Palawan offers an extensive variety of flora
and fauna which are considered as one of the factors as to why it is one of the sought after
tourist destinations for foreigners and locals alike.
Tourism in Palawan has seen continuous success with its steady growth. This
growth is evidenced by the fact that more and more people have been coming to Palawan.
Last 2013, readers of Travel + Leisure voted Palawan as the Worlds #1 Island, beating
the very robust island of Boracay. Aside from the accolades that it received for being a
wonderful tourist destination, Palawan has also been tagged as the Last Ecological
Frontier. It only means that Palawan is one of the few ecologically diverse areas in the
world that remains undisturbed by overdevelopment or other deteriorating effects caused
by human activities.
Problem
A report based on 2009 data, the tourism revenue of Palawan doubled the following
year. Jumping from P3.2 billion to P6.2 billion. The continuous growth of Palawan has its
boons and banes. Their economic growth reflects the success of the tourism industry and
provides job opportunities for its local community. It also indicates that more and more
people and have their interests leaned towards ecotourism. However, it is a basic fact that
an area only has its limited carrying capacity. Once it goes beyond its limit, it faces the
threat of degradation if not properly managed. Like Boracay, increase footprints or tourist
activities in Palawan threatens the areas ecology and biodiversity. It was reported that the
famous underground river has already exceeded its carrying capacity of 780 tourists
causing the local government to promote other tourist attractions.
Assumptions
Only jobs related to tourism were included. Professional occupations were not
accounted for. People are not taking multiple jobs.
The average number (1,250) of tourists arriving in Palawan was used for the entire
year. There are no fluctuation on the traffic during down and peak seasons.
30% of industry revenue goes to the local government. 12% of local government
revenue is deducted for the national government.
Labor Force (LaborForce): The amount of people in the labor force. This
computed by determining the percentage of the population aged 15-65.
Arriving Tourists in the Hotel (Arriving): Conveyor for the number of tourists
checking in.
Job Inflow (Job inflow): Incoming available jobs determined by the number of
employees needed and the number of people actually employed.
Area Density (Density): Number of tourists and population size divided by the
total land area (sq. km.).
Inflow of Labor Force (Labor): Local population multiplied by the labor force
rate or fraction.
Labor Force Rate (LFFraction): Determined by NSO data specific for the
Province of Palawan (57%).
Arriving Hotel Guests (Arrive): Calculated by taking the total number of tourists
per year as the base and the average guest arrival per day.
Check-Out (Check out): Hotel guests divided by the average number of days of
stay in Palawan.
Model
The model is divided into ten (10) parts: flow of tourists, jobs and employment, total
labor force, hotel accommodations, residential and commercial buildings, government
revenue, government-owned attractions, total number of employees needed, local
population, and the density of Palawan.
The local population is determined by the usual growth model discussed in class.
The birthrate and the death rate is from the data reported by the National Statistics Office
for September 2014. The birthrate is 0.3819 while the death rate is 0.0548. The stock for
LocalPopulation was used in order to determine the total labor force of Palawan. It was
computed by acquiring the percentage of the population aged 15-64. The rate of retirement
is determined by taking the percentage of the population aged 65 and above.
The total amount of infrastructures and rates are gathered from the comparative
data provided by the NSO for September 2014 and last two quarters of 2013. Another data
from NSO shows that the average household size in Palawan is 4.65. This value was used
in order to calculate the inflow for residential infrastructures or houses. Finally, the average
estimated useful life for these two are place at 50 years.
the
of
construction
new
accommodations
hotel
or
the
rooms
This model provides the revenue generated by the local government for the tourism
industry only. Total flow for tourist spending is determined by the average number of days
of stay, the total number of tourists and the average daily spending of tourists. The average
spending used was from a value gathered from Metro Manila. The revenue the local
government earns is 30% of the total revenue, which is the average income tax imposed in
the Philippines. Finally, 12% of the local government revenue goes to the national
government. The rate is based on the value added tax (VAT).
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The total employees needed for the infrastructures determine the jobs available in
Palawan. Meanwhile, employment is determined by the rate of the participating labor force
and the jobs open for these people. The job outflow is determined by the average attrition
rate.
Graphs
The environmental impact is valued using the governments allocated budget for its
development. As we can see form the graph, the decrease in arriving tourists affects
government revenue, which consequently affects the amount reserved for the preservation
of the natural attractions.
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We can see how the number of incoming tourists affected the construction of new
rooms. Thus, closing the discrepancy between the number of rooms available and the
occupied rooms. As the number of tourists decline, the number of new rooms constructed
also decreases together with the number of people checking in. We can see a wide
discrepancy since the newly constructed rooms are no longer used.
Conclusion
By placing a monetary value on the government-owned tourist attractions in
Palawan, we can determine how tourist traffic affects its decay and development, and the
overall economic activities in the province. The density of the area reflects how resources
are being distributed, in effect, if the distribution is not sustainable and equitable, it will
eventually cause a degradation of the ecosystem because of the potential overshoot in the
areas carrying capacity. The average density in region IV-B is 93, however, the model
illustrates how it exponentially increased. Soon it becomes comparable to NCRs density. If
the inflow of tourists, in addition to the continuous growth of the population, is not managed
by the government in its early stage, the worlds Last Ecological Frontier may no longer
be.
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References
Tourism income for Puerto Princesa seen at P9.8B in 2011. Palawan. Palawan: Discover
the Wonders of Palawan, 1 March 2012. Web. 13 Oct. 2014.
http://www.palawan.nfo.ph/tourism-income-for-puerto-princesa-seen-at-p9-8b-in2011/
Devanadera, Nelson Palad. Ecotourism in Palawan: A Case Study. 183-190.
Honggang, Xu and Bao Jigang. A System Dynamics Study of Resort Development Project
Management in Tourism Region: A Case Study of Guilin. 250-256.
Commission on Audit. Annual Audit Report on the Province of Palawan for the year ended
December 21, 2012.
Philippine Statistics Authority. Quickstat Palawan as of September 2014.
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ACCdemolition = Rooms_available/ACC_Useful_Life
ACC_Useful_Life = 50
ACPFactor = Tourists*0.002
COFactor = 4.5
Discrepancy = Rooms_available-Checked_in
Labor_force(t) = Labor_force(t - dt) + (Labor - Retirement) * dt
INIT Labor_force = Labor
Labor = Local_Population*LFFraction
Retirement = Labor_force*RetirementAge
LFFraction = 0.57
RetirementAge = 0.036
Local_Population(t) = Local_Population(t - dt) + (Birth - Death) * dt
INIT Local_Population = 771667
Birth = (Local_Population*Birthrate)
Death = Local_Population*Deathrate
Birthrate = 0.3189
Deathrate = 0.0548
Area = 14896
Density = Local_Population+(Tourists*.002)/Area
Government_Attractions(t) = Government_Attractions(t - dt) +
(Development_rate - Attraction_Decay) * dt
INIT Government_Attractions = 22
Development_rate = (GovtRevenue*Allocation)/Days
Attraction_Decay = Government_Attractions/Decay_Factor
Allocation = 0.01
Days = 365
Decay_Factor = 5
Commercial__employee = Commercial*20
GovtEmployee = (Government_Attractions*.15)/15000
Hotel_Employee = (Rooms_available/10)*8
Total_employees_needed =
Commercial__employee+GovtEmployee+Hotel_Employee
Tourists(t) = Tourists(t - dt) + (Arrival - Departure) * dt
INIT Tourists = 600000
Arrival = GRAPH((Tourists*Average_tourist__per_day)/Density)
(0.00, 94.5), (10.0, 90.5), (20.0, 76.5), (30.0, 67.0), (40.0, 59.0),
(50.0, 52.5), (60.0, 44.5), (70.0, 33.0), (80.0, 26.5), (90.0, 17.5),
(100, 0.00)
Departure = Tourists/Average_number__of_days
Average_number__of_days = 5
Average_tourist__per_day = 1250
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