WORK
WORKFORCE
WORKPLACE
WORK
WORKFORCE
WORKPLACE
WORK
WORKFORCE
WORKPLACE
Our focus on the workplace includes how organisations are
evolving and adapting, understanding of culture, trust and
engagement, and how people are best organised, developed,
managed, motivated and rewarded to perform at their best.
About us
The CIPD is the professional body for HR and people development. We have over 130,000 members
internationally working in HR, learning and development, people management and consulting across private
businesses and organisations in the public and voluntary sectors. We are an independent and not for profit
organisation, guided in our work by the evidence and the front-line experience of our members.
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MEGATRENDS
Foreword
The CIPD is committed to championing better work and
working lives, for the benefit of individuals, businesses,
economies and society. The unprecedented scale and
pace of change in the economy and world of work
presents an urgent and critical need to ensure the ways
we work, our workforce and workplace cultures are fit
for today and drive performance and growth for the
future. The purpose of this report is to highlight some
of the key trends that have been shaping our economies
and the world of work in order to prompt a debate
among practitioners, academics and policy-makers on
the implications of change and what the HR profession
can do to adapt to change and help shape the future.
In this report we group our analysis of the trends under
three broad themes: the changing nature of work; the
diverse and changing nature of the workforce; and the
changing nature of organisations and the workplace
context and environment. These themes will guide
our future research, strategic conversations and policy
development.
MEGATRENDS
Introduction
The nature of work and our working lives are affected
by the economies and societies in which we live.
Achieving better work and working lives therefore
requires an understanding of the principal trends
shaping economies, societies and organisations and the
implications of them.
The overall context is one where, in material terms, we
are far better off today than previous generations. In the
century since the foundation of the CIPD, average UK
and global income per head have both increased almost
fivefold (see Figure 1). Growth has been interrupted by
wars and recessions but the post-War era has been one
of improving living standards, with the last two decades
seeing, if anything, an acceleration of growth in output
per head.
Of course, GDP is an imperfect indicator of material
living standards, let alone individual or societal wellbeing. But economies where output is growing faster
than the size of the population are likely to face very
different choices and opportunities from ones where
output per head is flat or falling.
$ 1990 prices
25,000
20,000
15,000
UK
World
10,000
5,000
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
Source: Bolt, J. and van Zanden, J.L. (2013) The First Update of the Maddison Project: Re-estimating growth before 1820.
Maddison Project Working Paper 4.
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50
Construction
Manufacturing
30
Services
20
10
0
MEGATRENDS
100% 50%
0%
MEGATRENDS
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500
1980=100
400
300
200
100
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
MEGATRENDS
2% 3%
11%
15%
19%
26%
23%
26%
35%
36%
16 17
18 24
25 34
35 49
50 64
65+
16 17
18 24
25 34
35 49
50 64
65+
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+ 300
Thousands
+ 200
Non-EU
+ 100
A8
EU14
British
100
200
Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun
02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12
Source: Office for National Statistics
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80
70
60
50
Women
40
Men
30
20
10
1971 Q2
1972 Q3
1973 Q4
1975 Q1
1976 Q2
1977 Q3
1978 Q4
1980 Q1
1981 Q2
1982 Q3
1983 Q4
1985 Q1
1986 Q2
1987 Q3
1988 Q4
1990 Q1
1991 Q2
1992 Q3
1993 Q4
1995 Q1
1996 Q2
1997 Q3
1998 Q4
2000 Q1
2001 Q2
2002 Q3
2003 Q4
2005 Q1
2006 Q2
2007 Q3
2008 Q4
2010 Q1
2011 Q2
2012 Q3
4 OECD. (2013) Long-term growth scenarios, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 1000.
MEGATRENDS
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1993
MEGATRENDS
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
60%
50%
40%
30%
Sep-Nov 2012
Mar-May 2012
Sep-Nov 2011
Mar-May 2011
Sep-Nov 2010
Mar-May 2010
Sep-Nov 2009
Mar-May 2009
Sep-Nov 2008
Mar-May 2008
Sep-Nov 2007
Mar-May 2007
Sep-Nov 2006
Mar-May 2006
Sep-Nov 2005
Mar-May 2005
Sep-Nov 2004
Mar-May 2004
Sep-Nov 2003
Mar-May 2003
Sep-Nov 2002
Mar-May 2002
Sep-Nov 2001
Mar-May 2001
Sep-Nov 2000
Mar-May 2000
Sep-Nov 1999
Mar-May 1999
Sep-Nov 1998
Mar-May 1998
Sep-Nov 1997
Mar-May 1997
Sep-Nov 1996
Mar-May 1996
Sep-Nov 1995
Mar-May 1995
Sep-Nov 1994
Mar-May 1994
Sep-Nov 1993
Mar-May 1993
Sep-Nov 1992
Mar-May 1992
% of age group
30
25
20
15
10
90%
80%
70%
Other qualifications
_
GCSEs grades A* C or equivalent
A-level or equivalent
Higher education
Degree or equivalent
20%
10%
0%
2011
Thousands
10,000
8,000
CO series
_
LFS GB employees
_
LFS UK employees
6,000
4,000
2,000
1892
1897
1902
1907
1912
1917
1922
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
CO series refers to data collected by the Certification Officer. LFS refers to data collected through the Labour Force Survey.
Source: Office for National Statistics
5 See Felstead, A., Gallie, D., Green, F. and Inanc, H. (2013). Skills at Work in Britain: First findings from the skills and employment survey, 2012.
MEGATRENDS
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10
% of employees
50
40
Union presence
LFS
_
Collective bargaining LFS
_
Union presence WERS
_
Collective bargaining WERS
30
20
10
6 Van Wanrooy B. et al, (2013) The 2011 Workplace Employment Relations Study: First findings.
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% of employees
63
61
59
57
Jan-Mar 1997
Jul-Sep 1997
Jan-Mar 1998
Jul-Sep 1998
Jan-Mar 1999
Jul-Sep 1999
Jan-Mar 2000
Jul-Sep 2000
Jan-Mar 2001
Jul-Sep 2001
Jan-Mar 2002
Jul-Sep 2002
Jan-Mar 2003
Jul-Sep 2003
Jan-Mar 2004
Jul-Sep 2004
Jan-Mar 2005
Jul-Sep 2005
Jan-Mar 2006
Jul-Sep 2006
Jan-Mar 2007
Jul-Sep 2007
Jan-Mar 2008
Jul-Sep 2008
Jan-Mar 2009
Jul-Sep 2009
Jan-Mar 2010
Jul-Sep 2010
Jan-Mar 2011
Jul-Sep 2011
Jan-Mar 2012
Jul-Sep 2012
Jan-Mar 2013
55
7 According to the Labour Force Survey, the proportion of employees who said they were working part-time because they could not find a full-time
job increased from 2.7% in MarchJune 2008 to 5.7% by AprilJune 2012.
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Figure 13: Share of employees and self-employed that work part-time, 19922013
30
28
26
24
22
Mar-May 1992
Sep-Nov 1992
Mar-May 1993
Sep-Nov 1993
Mar-May 1994
Sep-Nov 1994
Mar-May 1995
Sep-Nov 1995
Mar-May 1996
Sep-Nov 1996
Mar-May 1997
Sep-Nov 1997
Mar-May 1998
Sep-Nov 1998
Mar-May 1999
Sep-Nov 1999
Mar-May 2000
Sep-Nov 2000
Mar-May 2001
Sep-Nov 2001
Mar-May 2002
Sep-Nov 2002
Mar-May 2003
Sep-Nov 2003
Mar-May 2004
Sep-Nov 2004
Mar-May 2005
Sep-Nov 2005
Mar-May 2006
Sep-Nov 2006
Mar-May 2007
Sep-Nov 2007
Mar-May 2008
Sep-Nov 2008
Mar-May 2009
Sep-Nov 2009
Mar-May 2010
Sep-Nov 2010
Mar-May 2011
Sep-Nov 2011
Mar-May 2012
Sep-Nov 2012
20
8 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. (2011) Job Creation and Job Destruction: 1998-2010.
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2 Future trends
The previous section set out seven Megatrends that
have shaped our labour market. There is no guarantee
that all of these will continue into the future or
whether, if they do persist, they continue at faster or
slower rates than in the past.
Trends can be reversible though it is often not obvious
to many at the time. For example, the CIPD was founded
at the peak of a previous wave of globalisation. After
the First World War, globalisation went into reverse.
Nations became inward-looking, protectionism took
hold and trade and investment fell. It took decades for
globalisation to resume. ICT means the world is better
connected than ever before, but governments seeking
greater economic independence and self-sufficiency
could take action unilaterally or together that would
put globalisation on hold or in reverse (again).
So what does the future hold? Will the long-term trends
we already recognise continue to shape tomorrows
labour market? What are the new trends that will
redefine the labour market?
3.0
2.5
2.0
Voluntary
Involuntary
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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100
80
60
40
20
Jan 00
Aug 00
Mar 01
Oct 01
May 02
Dec 02
Jul 03
Feb 04
Sep 04
Apr 05
Nov 05
Jun 06
Jan 07
Aug 07
Mar 08
Oct 08
May 09
Dec 09
Jul 10
Feb 11
Sep 11
Apr 12
Nov 12
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15
% of employees
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1992
1997
2001
2006
2012
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